Jon Heyman of SI.com runs through the Cubs’ options for their open GM position and concludes that White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn is “perhaps the most logical choice” for chairman Tom Ricketts. Click here for more rumblings about the Cubs and keep reading for Heyman’s other notes from around MLB…
- Manager Mike Quade is seen as a “long shot” to return as the Cubs’ manager next year.
- The Tigers will “surely” exercise Jose Valverde’s $8MM option for 2012, Heyman writes.
- No one with the Giants or Padres saw a Heath Bell trade as a likely possibility, according to Heyman. The Giants won the claim for Bell earlier in the week.
- The Reds are believed to be open to trading Ramon Hernandez, since catching prospect Devin Mesoraco could replace him. Hernandez hit the waiver wire this week.
Why the Reds weren’t open to trading Hernandez last month before the deadline I have no idea. They were already out of playoff contention anyway. Not really a bright move on Walt’s part
Valverde is 38 for 38 in save oppurtunities. There is no way that they don’t exercise his option so he can sign for $12MM somewhere else.
Saves are a meaningless stat. Paying $12 million a year for a relief pitcher who walks almost five guys per nine innings is silly.
Everything that you said is irrelivent. Saves are a very meaningful stat. Those last 3 outs can be the hardest to get. And who cares if he walks about one guy every other inning. He pitches one inning. Not nine. Talk about a meaningless stat. (BB/9 for closers)
The last three outs can be the hardest to get, certainly. So I’d like to see how well a guy actually pitches in those innings, not a meaningless counting stat invented by a journalist that has no statistical significance. If you walk 4.9 guys per 9 innings, you’re not pitching great. And you really think BB/9 is insignificant for a relief pitcher? It means in more than half of his one inning appearances, he’s walking a guy. Which means his ERA is unsustainable.
Also, it’s pretty much silly to pay any relief pitcher $12 million.
Why don’t you look up his stats in save situations and non-save situations. BB/9 for closers is about the most meaningless stat there is.
Save situations are a meaningless stat, too. Tie game situations are much higher leverage than many save situations. And any way you slice it, his walk rate is way too high to consider him truly elite, and I cringe at the idea of paying $12 million a year for even a truly elite relief pitcher.
So you’re saying that Closer should not be judged on what their primary job is (saves) but what they do in normal relief situations? Are you crazy? They are paid to save games. Not normal relief work.
I’m saying they should be judged by how well they pitch. The best relief pitchers should be used in the highest leverage situations–which the manager controls. The highest leverage situations are not always save situations. Saves are a BS stat, with tons of noise to signal. It’s kind of like pitcher wins. Felix Hernandez did his job better than anyone in baseball last year, even if his win total was modest. Saves reflect your team and how you’re used at least as much as they reflect how good you are.
And again, even if you think Valverde’s save total or unadjusted ERA this year reflect how good he’s been, which I don’t, 1) That doesn’t mean he’s likely to do it again next year, given how much relief pitchers fluctuate, and 2) It doesn’t mean he’s worth $12 million, given how little relief pitchers play. He’s got a .2 WAR by Fangraphs and a 1.6 WAR by Baseball Reference.
WAR for Closers? Really? You are really reaching for starts.
stats
The only stat you’re looking at is saves, which are nonsense. Have a look at any of his context-independent run average metrics. Or, once again, just look at his walk rate.
And all you have said is his WAR and walk rate. Those two are pathetic stats for Closers. They pitch one inning. Not nine. I don’t care what he would have done if he were a starter. Because he isn’t one. His job is to close games. His job is to pitch in the ninth inning of games when his team has a lead of 3 runs or less. That is the only thing that he has to do. Anything more is just extra. I don’t care if he leaves a guy on first and second. As long as he gets the job done. It’s not the same as Wins for starters though, because a starter needs his team to score enough runs to win. A Closer has the same basic situation every time they go out. It’s not the same. He has done his job all 38 times that he has been asked to and 40 times in a row.
You realize rates/nine innings are relevant for all pitchers, right? It’s simply saying how often you do something. How many starting pitchers ever go nine innings, let alone frequently? However you slice it, Valverde has a huge walk rate this year. And his WAR falls behind a lot of other closers and other relief pitchers this year, as do all his context-removed run averages, like FIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc. And you’re still wrong about the context of a save. Not all save situations are created equal, and many are not as high leverage as coming into a tied game, for instance. A pitcher can come in with a three run lead, pitch one inning, and get a save. Why are we chalking that up as some huge clutch accomplishment?
I said they were basically the same. Please tell me you’re point. My time is wasted. You have done nothing but repeat yourself.
Pot calling the kettle black. Have a good weekend.
In other words Michael, you have no arguement and nothing else to say.
Adios
Thank you.
He thinks I’m just repeating myself. He IS just repeating himself. He seemed ready to end the discussion. So am I. But thanks for trolling at the eleventh hour.
Yeah… he’s the troll.
You seemed to think we were done. I was ready to leave it at that.
You seemed to think we were done. I was ready to leave it at that.
He thinks I’m just repeating myself. He IS just repeating himself. He seemed ready to end the discussion. So am I. But thanks for trolling at the eleventh hour.
In other words Michael, you have no arguement and nothing else to say.
Adios
A few bad outings can inflate relief pitchers peripherals, /9 rates are way different for starters vs relievers. Valverde hasn’t allowed more than 1 walk in any appearance since July 8. If you take out his 4.2 innings worth of appearances of 2+ walks, his BB/9 is 3.61 . A closer is paid to get saves. Valverde has not failed to do his job fantastically at any point this season.
Finally, someone gets it.
Saves are still a silly stat, and any argument based around them is backward thinking.
Saves are still a silly stat, and any argument based around them is backward thinking.
Tony Reagins is that you? Fernando Rodney thanks you again for paying him for his “meaningful” saves.
Yeah, that was different. You just had to watch Rodney to know that he was terrible.
He has a 9 million dollar option, not sure where youre getting 12 million from. They HAVE to pick up the option. After that they can look at trading him if they want.
He’s getting it from my comment where I stated that after a perfect season, if he does in fact do that, he could command a $12MM salary as an elite closer.
The FA market is going to be flooded with closers this offseason. The Tigers might prefer signing one of the other names at an artificially low price for multiple years to keeping Valverde for one year, then paying full retail next year when demand is higher.
Not highlighted but also in Heyman’s article:
The Braves pitching, in the word of one scout, is “ridonkulous.” Fair assessment.
In the immortal words of Cubs fans “Yeah, well wait til NEXT year.”
Valverde is getting by on smoke, mirrors, rabbits feet, a 4-leaf clover, dumb baserunning, good CF defense, and fortunate throws. I bet he’s hurt and hiding it.
Now that I think about it, his dancing has been less dramatic. Maybe you’re right.
its been confirmed he definitely has some back problems, which makes what hes been doing even more impressive. The tigers should be resting him any chance they get
My thing about the whole article written is that his premise is flawed as far as GM’s not moving. Pat Guillick, John Hart, Dallas Green and the list goes on and on. GM’s move ALOT. You get 3 years to make strides or you are in trouble no matter what your contract says (ask Bynes). GM’s like everyone else are a results business and to say they do not move is very uninformed.
That’s not what Heyman wrote. He pointed out that successful GM’s of big market clubs rarely move to another big market team.
Again John Hart went from Cleveland to Texas. Pat Guillick went from Toronto almost immediately to the M’s. Dallas Green went from the Cubs to Phillie. I know I went back 30 years for the last one but they all moved from jobs where they were very successful to another post.
Cleveland, Texas, Seattle and Toronto aren’t big markets. You’re taking Heyman’s point out of context.
Hahn is clearly a well-regarded up and comer. But why do so many people see him as a slam dunk for the Cubs gig? Ricketts is saying he wants to focus on the farm system. And the Sox farm system is nothing to get excited about.
To be fair, White Sox ownership insists on sticking to slot, which Hahn can’t help, and is a major factor in the White Sox system constantly ranking low.
Point well taken. But even if we give him a pass in that, you’d still have to call him an unknown quantity on the Cubs’ #1 hiring priority. How did he get to be the front-runner?
Apparently he’s just seen as a good GM prospect in the game. Every writer who takes a poll in the game about good GM candidates–and I’ve seen a bunch lately–comes away with great feedback about him. New blood would also be good for the Cubs, but that almost certainly means an unknown quantity.
the farm system is partly bare from the horrific drafting record of one duane schaffer, noted retard. another is obvious, KW chasing every year.