By my count, 195 players are currently arbitration eligible. More than 50 of those can be considered non-tender candidates. The deadline for teams to decide is December 12th. Non-tendering a player makes him a free agent. Below is my subjective list of non-tender candidates. Please note that not all of them will actually be non-tendered. Click here for MLBTR's projected salaries for these players, if they are tendered contracts.
Position Players
John Baker
Daric Barton
Emmanuel Burriss
Jesus Flores
Mike Fontenot
Chris Getz
Alberto Gonzalez
Tony Gwynn Jr.
Jeremy Hermida
Koyie Hill
Paul Janish
George Kottaras
James Loney
Jeff Mathis
Donnie Murphy
Angel Pagan
Ronny Paulino
Brayan Pena
Landon Powell
Adam Rosales
Skip Schumaker
Luke Scott
Ryan Spilborghs
Ian Stewart
Ryan Theriot
Andres Torres
Wilson Valdez
Eli Whiteside
Pitchers
Matt Albers
Brad Bergesen
Taylor Buchholz
Dana Eveland
Willie Eyre
Tom Gorzelanny
Clay Hensley
Rich Hill
J.P. Howell
Hong-Chih Kuo
Jose Mijares
Andrew Miller
Peter Moylan
Ross Ohlendorf
Juan Carlos Oviedo
Micah Owings
Manny Parra
Mike Pelfrey
Jo-Jo Reyes
Joe Saunders
Doug Slaten
Kevin Slowey
Andy Sonnanstine
Joe Thatcher
Chris Volstad
Jerome Williams
Kyle McClellan is almost surely going to be non-tendered.
Matthew Leach wrote that as well, why is that? I thought he was decent overall and still not terribly overpaid as a reliever in 2012.
He has never been as good as his baseball card statistics and, as a starter, his stuff fell to significantly below average. He didn’t miss many bats as a reliever and was among the worst in baseball in that regards as a starter. Quite simply, he would be the most expensive reliever on the team – even if cheap – and also the worst. With quite the pipeline of young, cheap right-handed relievers with above average stuff, he just doesn’t fit.
If you know anyone who’d give up anything for him, I’m sure they would jump on it.
McClellan was LaRussa’s Snuggie – and even he realized, by the end of the season, how much better everyone else was. He wasn’t even on all the playoff rosters and, when he was, he was used once, stunk, and was never used again.
I can see the argument for it, but I think he will be back. At ~$3MM he is decent out of the pen. It was obvious he couldn’t handle the starter role but he is much better in middle relief. He’s really the only option in the pen that can go multiple innings besides Lynn and I think Lynn will be the 6th starter this year with an eye on him taking a rotation spot in 2013, so they will want him to start most of the year.
What about trade value at that price? Someone might take him.
Yeah, I would think someone would have some interest for sure. He has shown he can have quality stuff out of the bullpen. He still has some value is why I can’t see them non-tendering him.
How are you defining “quality stuff”? The only pitch he’s ever had that even sniffed being above average was his curve and he all but lost that his year. Even before, he didn’t miss bats.
He has never posted a FIP below 3.96 or an xFIP below 3.77. Last year, he was at 4.9/4.3.
With fringy stuff and the expectation of a FIP/xFIP not less than 4, who would pay $3MM AND trade something for him? If you can find someone, please let Mo know.
Likely what will happen to Jesus Flores. I think the Nats trade John Lannan and keep Gorzelanny who works effectively in long relief.
Why spend $3MM on the worst reliever in the bullpen when you have Motte, Boggs, Salas, Sanchez, Lynn, Reifer (back next year after knee surgery), Ottavino (who will finally, I think, make the switch to the pen with LaRussa out), etc.?
That is seven guys who are cheap and have at least one, if not two, significantly above average pitches.
Even if he were the same cost, all of those are better than McClellan…and by a fair margin, really.
Maybe I’m being unfair to the guy — he’s coming off an injury — but I was not at all impressed with Lance Lynn this postseason. I don’t know if it was the stage he was on, or his skill level, but I saw a lot of misplaced La Russa/Duncan faith in that cat and no indication that he’s going to be a good solution in any scenario, left right or otherwise.
His injury was minor and his stuff ticked up dramatically moving from the minor league rotation to the major league pen. He was sitting at 95 with arm-side run and hit 98 several times. His breaking ball was erratic, in terms of both command and quality, but he was quite good whenever he was in there. In 34+ innings, his FIP/xFIP was 2.8/2.7. He is significantly better than McClellan.
I think Owings is staying. Aside from the 5 run inning at the end of the season (in which he still made the postseason roster) he was pretty good as both a starter and a reliever
Thatcher? Comon…
Would like to see Albers back with Boston next year. He was the most effective 6-7th inning guy they had until August or so, then he kind of lost it. Like to see Miller back also, think they hold a 3m option with him and consider what is available this off season, that is a decent gamble.. He had 2-3 nice starts out of his dozen or so and most were fair.
Yeah, I’d love to see Albers back. When he was on he was one of our best relievers.
Dear Boston,
PLEASE keep Matt Albers.
Sincerely,
The rest of the American League.
HAHAHA.. Hope they do.. Try to remember though that Albers was almost non hittable until mid-August and only after that did he revert to his old Baltimore orioles self again..
Hopefully they will tender him, then hope for another half season like they had in 2011.
How is BJ Upton not on this list? He seems like a prime candidate to me.
I think Upton has decent trade value.
Agreed, and the Nats have had their eye on him for a while and could offer a decent package. But do you really think that the Rays will play chicken with the arbitration clock? Seems like his trade value is low right now because everyone knows that there is no way the Rays actually want to pay him to suit of for them next year, leaving the Rays with little leverage.
a less-than-ideal return >>> nothing
I would think the Cubs could nontender Blake DeWitt. Or is age still on his side?
Definitely kicked that one around. I guess you could say he was a hair short of my subjective cutoff point.
I know Brewers are losing K-Rod, and that Saito and Hawkins are FA, but I can’t see any reason to tender Kameron Loe if he projects around $2.5 million. Loe, when he’s on is fine, he just can’t be trusted in the 7th or 8th innings.
It’s not a huge deal but I’d be very surprised if the Angels non-tendered Jerome Williams. He pitched well in limited time, the Angels have needs in both the 4th and 5th spots in their rotation and Williams will cost next to nothing (coming off a major league minimum deal).
Unless the team has zero confidence in him for next year he will remain an Angel.
I was surprised to see him on the list, too…
I view Boston’s Jed Lowrie as a non-tender candidate as the infielder approaches his 28th birthday in the opening weeks of his first (more expensive) arbitration season. The injury-prone Lowrie has defensive limitations to go with his 2011 OPS+ of 83 and his career OPS+ of 92.
Lowrie still has utility value. He could remain as depth or be traded, but I doubt they would just non-tender him.
Hard to imagine the Nats non-tendering Flores, particularly when his projected salary is only $800k. He’s a solid catcher with some power, and is currently leading the Venezuelan winter leagues in several hitting categories (suggesting that he’s more-or-less fully recovered from his injury/surgery). Even if the Nats end up trading or otherwise dropping him, the $800k seems a more prudent investment that most of the catchers on the FA market.
I’d be suprised to see Spillborghs non-tendered. He has too much value as the Rockies 4th OF. Ian Stewart should have been gone a while ago.
I can see Wilson Valdez getting tendered before I can see Ben Francisco but hey that’s just me.
You might as well have titled this article “The complete list of possible Mets’ free agent targets”…that is, granted, if they are indeed non-tendered, of course.
Also, for his sake, I’d really like to see Mike Pelfrey non-tendered. Unless, of course, the Mets tender him and could also get something of value in a trade (although I’m far from optimistic that someone would give up anything of value). He strikes me as a quintessential “change of scenery”-type guy. Still has good, but seems to implode when things don’t go his way (for example: doesn’t get a close pitch or when a good pitch turns into a bloop hit.) Maybe getting away from the constant mess in Queens will do him some good psychologically.
Scratch that…some of these players might be too expensive.
I would be shocked if Joe Thatcher was non-tendered. The Padres need to add pieces to the already depleted pen, not subtract. Even with their farm stacked.
True. He is a valuable guy in their pen.
The Padres could have Bell leaving still. Adams already out. Gregerson was not his normal self last year. Frieri is inconstant so far. Also, Thatcher is a lefty. A lefty that can dominate when healthy. The Padres will not remain status quo with Josh Spence.
Wow Luke Scott, Ian Stewart and James Loney have really fallen from grace!
As bad of a hitter as Paul Janish is, he’s simply not a non-tender candidate. He’s cheap and plays excellent defense at positions where the Reds have little depth. Unless Cincinnati signs Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins (lol), you can forget about it.
Janish is an interesting candidate. Yeah, he’s cheap and he has an option left. And he can play some pretty good defense – usually. He, like many Reds, had a rough go of it last season. I could see the Reds go either way with him.
Janish, Pagan, Schumaker (due to his double defensive value), Gwynn Jr. Spilborghs and maybe Mathis (depending on valuations of his glove/game calling and what hitting coaches may think) could be contributors in important teams. On pitching Gorzelanny, Volstad, Thatcher, Owings, Kuo (obligatory two year contract) and Oviedo could be interesting pieces to reconstruct a bullpen (and in Volstad’s case, an interesting reclamation project).
I feel like some of these first year arb players will sign for less so that they are tendered contracts. After that first year, different story. It just seems like a tough list to predict. I’d say 50 percent of these if not more will be tendered.
Add Will Venable to that list. He made super two status but has been a huge disappointment in a Padres uniform.
Super Two could be a death knell to his continued employment in San Diego.
Add Will Venable to that list. He made super two status but has been a huge disappointment in a Padres uniform.
Super Two could be a death knell to his continued employment in San Diego.
Surprised Luke Hochevear isn’t a candidate. I know he was a #1 overall pick but he has been below average every year and will make $4 million. Too soon to give up on him?
need to find value
good luck guys