Baseball executives A.J. Hinch and Kenny Williams each batted around .219 in their big league careers. That may help you visualize how I'm doing in MLBTR's free agent prediction contest this offseason. With 7 of 32 correct, I currently rank 922nd out of over 5,000 entries. In contrast, MLBTR readers Kay Jay, David Silverberg, Alex Gregor, and Shaun O'Toole lead the pack, pulling .375 averages that even Ty Cobb couldn't manage in his career.
A look at my October 31st predictions also shows that top 25 free agents Prince Fielder, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, Hiroki Kuroda, Carlos Pena, Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Coco Crisp, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Paul Maholm remain unsigned. It's no coincidence that half of them are represented by the Boras Corporation. Here are some possibilities for the 10 best free agents still on the market.
2. Prince Fielder – $153MM over six years might allow Boras to save face, claiming the second-highest average annual value in baseball history even if it'd mean falling well short of the $200MM landmark. Obviously, $180MM over seven years would be better and isn't crazy, while an opt-out could sweeten the deal for Fielder and let him hit free agency again as a 30-year-old. As MLB.com's Richard Justice notes, the market for Fielder is plain mysterious at this point. If there's an obvious candidate to vastly overpay for Fielder, they've yet to be revealed. The Orioles, Mariners, and Cubs are in the mix to some extent. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has recently mentioned the Nationals and Rangers, though those teams are viewed as unlikely by other reporters. The Cubs and Mariners remain the current favorites.
6. Edwin Jackson – Though his pitching record won't change, Jackson will look more and more appealing over the next few weeks to teams looking for a rotation upgrade. In a December 25th MLBTR poll of almost 17,000 MLBTR readers, the Yankees were the top pick with 19% of a well-divided vote. Four days ago, Heyman named the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rockies, Marlins, and Tigers as teams looking for pitching. The Pirates could be a dark horse, and if the Jackson market dips to around three years and $33MM more teams may jump in. For EJax, things are just getting started.
14. Ryan Madson – The Red Sox and Angels have been linked to Madson, who may or may not have been offered four years and $44MM by the Phillies before they signed Jonathan Papelbon. If Madson is to find three years and $30MM, the Red Sox and Angels will have to start a bidding war.
15. Hiroki Kuroda – If the Yankees take a pass, Kuroda could fall to the Red Sox, Cubs, or Hiroshima Carp. One would think a half-dozen other teams would be in the mix for Kuroda on a one-year deal.
16. Carlos Pena – It's been quiet on the Pena front, but he could work for the Rays, Indians, Cubs, or Brewers if the price falls. I think another one-year deal is in order.
18. Roy Oswalt – Six days ago, Heyman named the Red Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Yankees as Oswalt suitors, excluding other teams that acquired starters since then. On a one-year deal, any would-be contender could conceivably jump in.
19. Javier Vazquez – Four days ago, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro said Vazquez maintains he is retiring.
21. Coco Crisp – Crisp seeks a multiyear deal from a contender, and the Cubs and Dodgers could be possibilities. The Marlins or Nationals could offer him the chance to stay in center field.
22. Hisashi Iwakuma – My ranking for Iwakuma was probably too high; he might be looking at a one-year deal. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported two teams have viable interest in the righty, but the A's are lukewarm on him.
25. Paul Maholm – I think Maholm will be able to find a two-year contract. The Cubs were in the mix prior to adding Travis Wood and Andy Sonnanstine. The Rockies have options, but they could still be a fit.
Maybe i just havent been paying close enough attention. But has there even been one rumor of a team being interested in Edwin Jackson since the winter meetings?
Have there been any about Fielder that weren’t soon denied? Any about Pena? Damon? Boras strikes again.
Poor Damon couldn’t even make this list. And yes a 1 year deal for Pena would work very nicely for the Rays.
J Damons a good inexpensive fit for the yankees
the cubs are in no way a favorite for fielder… yeah let’s explore trading garza then sign fielder on a team with only one good other player in castro. I know this is the senseless cubs fans talk getting this rumor going but epstein is very intelligent to rebuild and compete as soon as 2013.
tell me how he can go from trash to competing by 2013, with “only one good player other than Castro”
The amount of errors the cubs would have having Castro( bad defender) and fielder ( below average) would cancel out the amount of runs/ wins fielder would being to the team.
Offense is always more important as long as there is at least a warm body out there on defense. Fielder would definitely bring in positive runs and it is asinine that you would even think otherwise.
Still thinking the Orioles give Fielder 6/150 with an opt out clause after Year 3.
Brash, Eager Duquette + Desperate Angelos = Prince in Baltimore.
if he signs that contract, he’ll be a blue jay .
Seattle’s going to give him 8 years
It’s beyond me how these posts say a player wants to play for a contender then lists the Cubs and Dodgers as possible destinations.
You put Fielder behind Kemp and they might be a contender. No way they can afford him but would there be a better 1-2 punch than that?
Bautista and Fielder would be a devastating 1-2.
I don’t even want to think about that. Would have to face that 18 times a year.
As a Sox fan, yeah it’s scary. As a baseball fan I have to think a Fielder/Bautista 1-2 punch would be the toughest in the league.
just walk both and pitch to lind
Lawrie would be 5th after Fielder, Then Lind. Gotta break up the lefties remember?
normally i’d want the best hitter 4th and i’d give lawrie the 2 spot, but it might be fun to see what bautista could do when teams couldn’t pitch around him all the time
escobar
johnson
bautista
fielder
lawrie
lind
rasmus
arencibia
snider
lind, rasmus, and snider are all big wildcards in 2012. could be ugly, but if they play to potential that lineup is exhausting
That would be brutal. And yet, Cherrington bides his time waiting for pitching reinforcements to apparently fall from the heavens.
or he could join the Rangers and be part of a 1-2-3-4-5 punch with Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz and Napoli.
Nelson Cruz and Prince Fielder make a great 1-2 punch!!
Nah, someone needs to give the Rays 200 million because a Longo – Fielder 1-2 punch would feel a lot like the great Braun – Fielder back to back AB’s the past few years.
I expected some people to say that when I wrote it. I get that they’re
not considered top contenders. I’d guess Crisp will be pretty loose
with what he considers a contender if it’s the best offer.
But Ned thinks the Dodgers are contenders!
yeah…..because the ‘stache told him so!
Any talk on Fielder at this point is pure speculation.
There’s not a single team out there that really makes a lot of sense, so reporters are just throwing out the ones that make a little sense.
Actually, there are several teams that make sense for Fielder…at least in terms of need, but not money. The Rangers would be a logical and perfect landing spot for Fielder…on a 4-5 year deal. Unless Fielder wants to play in a World Series more than make money, it won’t happen. I think Fielder is just caught in a bad situation. His only way out may be to settle for a 5-7 year deal.
I’m not sure why it’s either logical or perfect. Between Moreland, Napoli, and Young the Rangers have plenty of guys to man first base and provide a decent enough bat. When you take into account that the Rangers easily had one of the top 3 offenses in baseball last year it doesn’t make a lot of sense to add another hitter. You have to think there will be diminishing returns from adding a high salary hitter.
But if we can’t get Hamilton signed to a longer deal this year then signing Fielder makes perfect sense. You add a hitter this year that will stay for 5-7 more years after Hamilton is gone. They are both left handed so it does hurt you next year trying to find another left handed power bat to replace Hamilton if we lose him and don’t sign Fielder. It also puts you all in for this year. Money is not an issue if the owners give the green light to blow the budget for one year to make it happen. The question really is, do you want Fielder or Hamilton long term? The debate about Fielder’s body breaking down becomes moot when compared to Hamilton as who knows what Hamilton’s body is going to do thanks to all of the drugs and we have seen that he gets injured every year, freak injury or not. He can also eventually move to DH as Young is only here for 2 more yrs and Moreland can play some outfield to replace Hamilton. With all of that said, I don’t know yet which direction I lean. I think more towards Hamilton but only for about 5 years and 17.5mm per.
I have a hard time believing that the Rangers can afford to add Darvish and Fielder.
Aside from that, I don’t have much more to add to what @start_wearing_purple:disqus said.
They can but it would blow the budget for this year. See post above though on how it could work.
What does making sense have to do with anything. It’s about making dollars! It is a bidding contest – pure and simple. And right now poor Scott Boras has misjudged the market……save face??? Ha! Too bad, sleeze ball!
Why isn’t there a dislike button?
I’ll never understand the hate for Boras. The guy is over the top, but he’s damn good at his job.
Steve Jobs made a lot of money while striving to be the absolute best and, frankly, coming across like a jerk quite often. He was universally idolized.
Scott Boras makes a lot of money while striving to be the absolute best, and frankly, coming across like a jerk quite often. He is universally despised.
Weird…
Because Steve Jobs actually developed the product from the beginning to the end! Boras is a salesman! A Peddler of Players! Not a Creator or Inventor!
While Boras is good at his job, you tell me Brooks which one of his clients materially helped their prospective team win the World Series. Sure you could say Tex or A Rod, but I say Matsui was the biggest reason the Yankees beat the Phillies in 2009!
PS While Boras has top players as his clientele, I would like to know who of Scott Boras’s clients was the World Series MVP? Is there one?
I disagree somewhat, actually. Jobs wasn’t an inventor. He was an improver. He recognized that to capture the vast majority of the consumer tech market, products had to be simplified, rather than more complex.
Boras, I would argue, is the same way. While, yes, he is essentially a glorified salesman, the reason he’s reputed as the best agent in baseball is because he has improved on the science of selling a baseball player the same way that Steve Jobs improved on the science of selling a computer.
Interesting comparison between the two, actually.
Also Steve jobs made most of his money after he sold dreamworks back to Disney. Thus being a sales man
I liked your comment but here is the perception. Jobs made something that all of us can understand and makes our life easier. He found ways to influence everybody’s life with his products. Boras is helping to make guys that most people find already grossly overpaid even richer. It is the jealousy aspect of wanting those at the top to fail. If I was in the position of these players, I would want Boras on my side. People are just pissed because agents like Boras have driven the price up of our sport where it makes it hard to be able to afford to go to as many games as we would like and super agents like Boras become the easy villains.
Coco Crisp seeks a deal from a contender… Cubs and Dodgers could be possibilities.
Since when are the Cubs or Dodgers contenders?
i really hope the nats swoop in and sign fielder on a bargain (well when i say bargain i mean something like 8 years/175 mil)
with no dh, 8 year deal? ouch… but possible
we don’t have to include a NTC
its an auto NTC.. as in no one is touching that contract
There’s no way an NL team signs him for more than six years.
Is Damon really a worse signing than Maholm? I mean, I watched all the Rays games but I’m finding myself doubting that I really want him back now. Yes, I’m easily brain washed.
I would like the Yankees to sign Crisp so they can trade Swisher. Its the worst kept secret in baseball the Yankees are shopping him. Kevin Long and Brian Cashman were both high on Chris Dickerson last year. I think Gardner will continue to decline and be relegated to being a fourth outfielder. I view Crisp as his replacement because I think they are going to eventually trade Swisher to go with an experiment of any combination of Maxwell, Dickerson, Nunez and Montero.
Without signing an outfielder even if you convert Montero you have no DH. I believe Swisher has to go but they will need more depth because of a Gardner decline. If I am Cashman I may also call the Pirates on McCutchen. A haul of second tier Yankee prospects would make the Pirates alot better- Karstens, Ohlendorf and Tabata were all considered second tier prospects by the Yankees.
I would think that McCutchen is worth more than second tier prospects
Crisp over Gardner?
Second tier prospects for McCutchen?
Your Yankee addiction is clearly clouding your judgement.
Not second tier as in second rate- think sandwich picks in the draft. The Yankees have untouchables and then prospects not untouchable because of Tex and Arod. A guy like Romine who is blocked by Montero and the extension they are discussing with Martin. The Yankees business model does not allow them to replace a “name” with an unknown. Mike Lowell was one, JT Snow was not replacing Mattingly. They will trade players that can play ten years for the Pirates. They have two now a third baseman and centerfielder who could play at the big league level right now but experience growing pains.
Banuelos, Betances, and Montero are the untouchables they view as part of the future. Other guys who would be untouchables in other organizations get moved.
If you want McCutchen there are no untouchables.
Unlike the Yankees to be so quite, have to think a move will happen before Feb.
well it would take untouchables to get McCutchen
It would take all three untouchables to get McCutchen
get help for your addiction
Oh yeah, Brett Gardner’s certain to go into a deep decline phase at twenty-eight.
Seriously? Brett Gardner’s officially stolen Kevin Youkilis’ “Most Underrated Major Market Player” crown. Gardner’s never going to be an elite player, but he’s so underrated by some Yankees fans that it’s just sad.
11.2 WAR the last 2 seasons… I’d say thats pretty elite..
he sees a lot pitches, is a tough out and defensively it doesn’t get better.. every team would love this guy
11.2 WAR predicated almost entirely upon his UZR at a defensive position that is way below his talent level.
Gardner’s a great player and yes, I’d love to have the guy, but considering how shaky WAR can be when applied to defense first guys and the fact that Gardner’s UZR is potentially inflated by the fact he’s covering more territory than your average left fielder would, I would only call him a great player rather than an elite one. When I think elite, I think guys who hit and defend and do it consistintly, guys like Longoria, Tulo or Pujols.
Praying that the Pirates come out of nowhere and scoop Prince, Oswalt and E-Jax and turns them into contenders overnight.
I don’t even think that could do it.
Sadly you may be right. My dream scenario is Beane goes to Huntington and said “My entire big league roster, anyone you want, for Taillon” and he somehow takes Suzuki, McCarthy, Bailey, Balfour & Pennington for him, haha
“…pulling .375 averages that even Ty Cobb couldn’t manage in his career.”
Actually, Tim, Cobb had seasons where he batted .420, .409, .390 and .401.
I think we can safely say Tim was referring to Cobb’s career batting average.
Are you a Tim apologist my friend? LOL
Ty Cobb would clean up at the plate and at the bank today. No one today comes close to a comparison for his position.
I disagree. He’d maliciously spike people and would spend the majority of each season suspended. Now, robbing banks on the other hand I completely agree about.
not to mention racism questions
I’m surprised some teams haven’t been creative with an offer to Fielder. Like 6 years/$150 mil ($25m per year) with two option years at an additional $50 mil. ($25 per year). The option vests if Fielder plays in 80% of his games in years 3-6 (not manager’s discretion but actual DL-time off to avoid the obvious conflict that might occur if a team tries to weasel out) OR he hits 35 HR or more in year 6 OR is in Top 5 for MVP in year 6.
On Fielder’s end he can opt out before either year 7 or 8 if he chooses to test FA. If Fielder doesn’t vest his incentives, he is a free agent. If he does and the team no longer wants him, the team has a buyout at $10 million per year so if they want to opt out before year 7 he’s going to get an additional $20 million to go be a free agent.
For the team this gives them some flexibility for years 7 or 8 of the deal if they really want to get out of it.
It would give Boras the $200 million bragging point as well.
Fielder would be worth near $25 million per year in arby so it’s not an insane number. Most teams couldn’t afford that anyway but the key seems to be the years and overall value of the deal and this gives a bit of an artificial win on that point. Still most teams would prefer to pay $20 mil rather than $50 mil if they really want to dump a player so this provides teams with an out if he turns into Mo Vaughn as some people believe might happen.
Boras miscalculated on Fielder. It’s as simple as that. He can try all he wants to prop up the market with fancy books etc, but the market is what the market is. The teams that have interest are not the high rollers. I said from the beginning he was going to get $135 million over 6 years with an option that would make it $155 over 7.
The sad part is that by continuing to feed Prince with the false hope that he was going to break the bank, he eliminated the one team that made the most sense for him, the Brewers, who could not wait any longer. So instead of being the beloved figure he could be at a very slight home town discount, he’s going to become just another mercenary playing out his career in obscurity in Seattle, Baltimore or Toronto for barely more than the Brewers would have been comfortable with.
Why do you think Scott Boras has given Prince Fielder false hope?
An agent typically apprises his client of the market but begins the bidding by asking for far more than the agent (or the client) thinks the market would bear.
I suspect Boras has built up an impressive list of clientele by rendering accurate advice.
Although Boras is very good at his job, I dont believe for a moment any team would give fielder 10/250 or whatever number around there was speculated. I believe the Angels will regret Puljos contract in 3 years.
yeah….i wondered that too especially already having trumbo on their roster???guess thats why im not a gm
thank god!!! common sense may prevail!!!!
If the Orioles are going to make any progress in the AL East they will have to do the following:
Do that trade for Jurrjens and Prado (Trading Jones)
Sign Coco Crisp and Cody Ross
Trade Reimold for Figgins
Sign Oswalt
If they do all the above, then splurge and sign Prince Fielder.
Finally, go for the Gusto and trade for Andrew Bailey
What are the chances of all this happening? Hahahaha! I don’t know =P!
PS Why do things half way when, YOU COULD GO ALL THE WAY!
You throw out a lot of ideas Lefty, and they’re fun, but I’d really love to see some explanation for all of these, because only one of them makes sense.
I don’t have enough time to give a good explanation.
Except to say the team would be fun to watch and put fannies into the seats at the Yard. There would be a “real” reason to go to the game! We’d be losing Jonesy, which I really don’t want he would be going to a contender though, so that helps!
It would be fun again at the Yard and that’s more important at this point! Fans are tired of waiting around for the draft to come thru for us!
Why would you or anyone in the world want to trade for Figgins? Reimold can actually hit also.
sadly that doesn’t help much..
They need to build from within
In fairness to the O’s, even if they do all of that, they’re still the worst team in the AL East.
Lefty is Peter Angelos
Let’s say all 30 teams have the same amount of spending money. Who does Fielder fit the best? Is it the Rays? Think about it, great pitching, some pretty decent hitters and a great one with no protection in Longoria. You add Fielder to that mix, would he fit any other team better? Now, I said out of all teams but another great pitching staff with a less than amazing offense is those Phillies and they do have Howard once he’s healthy. Where does Prince make the biggest impact? Needing one more bat and having one of the best rotations in the game, yeah I’m a Rays fan but he might turn the Rays from a team that needs luck again to a favorite to win it all.
All else being equal, the Dodgers. They desperately need a real hitter at first.
Neither of those teams can afford him, but yeah he would really help them
Yeah, they can’t afford him which is why my question was, what’s his best fit if EVERYONE could afford him.
It would be exciting for the Rays if they had managed to scrape together enough funds to land Prince, but it isn’t at all necessary for them. They’ve had good enough luck picking Pena and Kotchman off the scrapheap, it wouldn’t surprise me if they netted another division title letting Joyce or Guyer or Canzler or something playing 1st.
what about Yoenis Cespedes??? IS he not on this list because he is not officially a free agent yet? if that’s the case, where would he go?
Iwakuma is going to be a serious bargain