Earlier today, the Padres bolstered their lineup by acquiring Carlos Quentin from the White Sox for pitching prospects Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. Here's a look at some of the fallout and reactions to the New Year's Eve swap..
- The early word from scouts is that Castro and Hernandez don't have much upside, which indicates that this was a payroll move, tweets ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
- Despite the criticism of the two prospects, White Sox GM Ken Williams insists that the club has identified the keys to getting Castro back to where he was a year ago when he was considered to be a strong prospect, according to the White Sox official Twitter. The 23-year-old right-hander was ranked as the Padres third best prospect last year by Baseball America.
- Williams also compared Castro's build and mound mechanics to those of Jose Contreras, according to the ChiSox Twitter. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (via Twitter) notes compared Castro to Contreras in a piece almost two years ago.
- Quentin said that the White Sox's sub-.500 finish in 2011 and his value led him to think he might be traded, tweets Dan Hayes of the North County Times (via Twitter). The outfielder also says that he knew he was on Padres' radar.
- In a piece for ESPN.com, Keith Law writes that Quentin is a mediocre fit for the Padres. Quentin, he writes, is a poor defensive outfielder who has great secondary skills, including above-average power and solid plate discipline. However, his history of injuries indicates that he'll have trouble playing the field 150 games a year.
- GM Josh Byrnes and Ken Williams have swapped Quentin once before. As Diamondbacks GM, Byrnes traded Quentin to Chicago for first baseman Chris Carter in 2007. Byrnes said that trading away Quentin was "pretty high" on his list of regrets as Arizona GM, tweets Tom Krasovic of Inside The Padres.
- The trade appears to signal that Kyle Blanks isn't in the team's plans going forward, Krasovic tweets.
- Byrnes says that he and Williams have been discussing the deal for the past ten days and the pace picked up significantly over the past two days, Krasovic tweets. Byrnes also says that he's looking to put together a team that can compete in 2012 while maintaining a long-term plan (via Twitter).
- The two sides agreed to the deal in principle Friday morning before announcing the trade today, according to Corey Brock of MLB.com.
Rizzo rumors and now Blanks rumors. It’s Yonder and Guzman’s turns.
Baseball America’s preseason Top 100 prospect list ranked Simon Castro No. 57 in 2010 and No. 58 in 2011, so the White Sox might have bought low after Castro’s disappointing 2011 season.
Six years of Castro (and six years of Pedro Hernandez) might well represent a fair return for one year of Carlos Quentin.
The Sox should be pretty happy with this trade I think. Simon Castro faired worse in 2011 facing the same competition than he did in 2010, the year in which he was the starting pitcher in the Futures game.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Castro develops into a good late-inning reliever. Pedro Hernandez was another guy whose future path was probably in the pen with the Padres. Good trade for those guys in keeping open their options open as I’d imagine the Sox will keep starting each for the forseeable future.
Seems like these arms will be much more appreciated in Chicago than in SD.
I doubt this trade happens under Sandy/KT or Jed.
Good Riddance. Go out and sign Ryan Madson now.
Ok . Wren has stated that he wants a young RH batting OFer who is a thumper . It’s look as though the Padres are gonna move Blanks . So I suggest two different trade proposals .
1) Prado (and if needed a low level C prospect) for Blanks and Bartlett
2) J.J. Hoover for Blanks straight up
Done.
If Blanks gets moved Im gonna guess the Sox at least look into him. Power right handed batter he could be a nice low risk move for the right price.
I honestly don’t see Blanks fitting in the Sox’s plans
Yeah your right I just realized he is more of a left field guy. Snap haha.
Keith Law seemed to like the deal from the Sox perspective.
lol, another failing power hitter that will drown in petco park. i guess they didn’t learn from Ryan Ludwick.
Yes, the Padres should never try to hit another home run again. They should just try and bunt their way on and try to steal home all year.
A Gonz sucked too
Blanks isn’t in the team’s plans going forward because they have one year of Quentin? I know they’re pushing for Guzman to play LF, but he was a butcher at 1B, so I’ll reserve my judgement until I see/hear otherwise. Blanks hasn’t even had a full season with the Padres yet, at least grant him that before you give up on him.
And while Quentin may be tough to swallow in left, I don’t think his power will suffer greatly at Petco, being a dead pull righty.
Hes really not a dead pull hitter.
Must’ve misread then.
There really is very little reliable evidence that shows that any talent prognosticators know their rear ends from the holes in the wall. I mean seriously. Look at what they were saying less than 2 years ago about some of the Padres prospects. Aaron Poreda? Dexter Carter? Two of the three they got from the White for Peavy? Flame outs, but both were listed in the Top 10. This happens year after year. It’s all a crap shoot. Guessing game. Maybe the Sox got two stiffs, maybe they got two useful players. We’ll know by 2014.
It is something of a crap shoot, but it is certainly not a guessing game. If I had to guess, the prospects in 2009 were listed high due to the state of the farm system, and not their actual skill.
The Peavy trade was a salary dump. Towers was under orders to cut payroll due to Moores impending divorce. You have a better chance of getting good prospects when you don’t have to the best available deal like Towers did.
Oh yes, I understand Peavy was a salary dump, I was just commenting on the status of the players acquired in said trade being ranked near the top of the farm due to the system being in such disarray.
Context is crazy, crazy important. Like not all top-10’s are considered equal. Point being in 3 of the 4 years prior to the Peavy trade the Padres farm system was ranked 29th best by BA. Reflecting back on those dark barren days, it didn’t take much to get our attention. A quartet of arms all 6’5″ or taller… oh my!
it’s hard to believe that the Padres are willing to take on a very one dimensional player making $5+ million. There must be an additional move coming, probably to a AL team.
How about one year of outfielder Carlos Quentin and six years of firstbaseman Anthony Rizzo to Tampa Bay for six years of middle infielder Tim Beckham and three affordable years of starter Wade Davis (with team options for three more years)?
I’d do it, the only problem will be the fact that Quentin hates to DH and we can’t put Joyce at DH and Quentin at RF because his defense might be worse than 38 year old Damon’s.
Quentin can get over it.
Wade Davis is over-rated IMO. Has Beckham progressed at all? Seems like scouts are down on him. TB would do that in a heartbeat.
Pads seem interested in Lee. If you want to speculate trades for Rizzo and others I think you should consider him as the shortstop prospect they’re keying on. It also seems that Tampa wants to part with Davis or Niemann for some help on offense; but like the Rays the pads have other pitching prospects that they’re higher on. I see a possible deal between the pads and Rays but I think it will be for Lee and the Rays will get Rizzo or Blanks and maybe others.
Padre fans go “meh”, while landing a long-term SS is likely their biggest priority right now, I’d imagine Beckham would be “plan g” at best, they need someone with more certainty. While Wade Davis isn’t a great fit either.
Make it Lee and Davis and it is a done deal.
A sensible trade suggestion that actually benefits both teams, put forward in the MLBTR comments section?
Hell just froze over…
There are solid trade proposals posted here every so often. This is not one of them.
How about no?
If the Rays aren’t willing to give up Lee, I hope the Padres aren’t willing to discuss Rizzo with them. Beckham does nothing for me if he can’t stay at short. If the Padres believe he will stay at short then Beckham for Blanks.
OH yeah, being an MVP contender definitely makes you one dimensional. He is an all-star player.
White Sox fans were clamoring for an arm. It’s easy to overvalue Quentin in general and in this particular market. There were actually some decent outfielders on the free agent market that would comp to Quentin’s numbers and maybe an even lesser salary and would not have cost minor league talent to acquire.
The one thing I would say is that Kenny Williams has started to let the game play him a bit recently. He’s reacting..and that’s a dangerous spot to be in.
Happy New Years everyone!!!!
One of these days the Padres will enhance their offense without compromising their defense. But apparently they have not reached that point yet.
Looks like Giants and D-backs fans have nothing to concern themselves with at this time from San Diego.
Quentin’s WAR last year in 118 games was 2.6.
He had 0 WAR in 2010 in 131 games
He had a -0.5 WAR in 99 games in 2009
He had a 4.8 WAR back in 2008 in 130 games.
Avg WAR since 2008 is 1.7
Key points…131 games was the most in the last 4 season (actually, most in his career). All of his value comes from his bat. His defense destroys his value, and I would think playing in Petco would exaggerate his poor range.
I think this deal is fair, epecially since the Sox can now give Viciedo full-time at bats.
People fell in love with TCQ’s magic 2008, but fail to see the rest. He’s the Carson Palmer of MLB.
I love when people try to make an argument solely based on WAR. lol
, I love when people completely dismiss something without adding any substance. Lol
But he hits TEH HOMERZ.
Chicks dig the long ball.
Not much to add when your talking to someone who judges players that way. I don’t completely dismiss it as a statistic. I just think it’s a joke to judge a player solely by their WAR especially when he hasn’t played the full season most years. It’s a deeply flawed statistic by itself and people throw it around like it’s the end all be all judgement. What a joke.
Right, WAR is a cumulative stat. If a guy only gives you 80 games, that should depress his value for the season.
And yes, WAR does oversimplify.
Bottom line:
Pros: very good power, good arm
Cons: ok avg, ok OBP, no speed, no range, injury risk
If you need the numbers, go to fangraphs.
And how is war deeply flawed?
Once again, provide actual substance
I could write a book on WAR’s flaws for the way you are using it. Unfortunately, I don’t have enough time to explain everything to you. Based on your comments I can only assume that you have no idea how this statistic is calculated.
I’ll point out a few flaws that pertain to this conversation, but I’d suggest you go learn how it’s calculated before you throw it around recklessly.
First of all, WAR isn’t a universal calculation. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference calculate their WAR differently.
UZR is a large part of WAR and is the main reason for Quentin’s unimpressive WAR. Again, you may want to go learn how UZR is calculated. It’s an extremely unreliable statistic that can fluctuate from one extreme to another in a single season. This kind of fluctuation could mean a 2 point swing in WAR.
These balls tracked for UZR are done by human eye. They are done using different sets of human eyes from different vantage points. Do I really need to explain the problem with how this data is compiled?
Every player doesn’t have the exact same opportunity at balls batted in play. UZR doesn’t take in to consideration atmospheric conditions and all parks aren’t built the same. Balls in the thin air of Coors Field Fly and don’t hang up like they do in the dense marine layer of Petco Park. The fact is, all defensive metrics are flawed and any stat using them is too.
Again, I could go on and on about the flaws of this statistic, but that’s not my job. Go learn for yourself.
I find it hard to believe that Quentin’s defense is so bad that it cancels out his offensive production. I look forward to watching Quentin and think he’s going to do just fine as a Padre.
And how is an okay AVG and OBP a con? I guess it’s a matter of perspective. You have some agenda to make him seem worse than he is. I’ll take his AVG and OBP with that kind of power every time.
Yay substance! Also, nice work assuming my level of knowledge about statistics…way to prejudge! I understand WAR has its flaws, and that different places calculate them differently. Hell, just about any stat in baseball has its flaws. I don’t need UZR to know that Quentin is a poor-range OF with a good arm. I’ve watched him play many times.
2009: .236/.323/.456
2010:.243/.342/.479
2011:.254/.340/.499
ok,so actually, less than OK avegage, OBP-AVG should be higher for a good power hitter, slugging good.
Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t a win for the Sox, it’s a salary dump. All I’m saying is that people tend to remember 2008, and not the rest.
So maybe you should get off your high horse and have a discussion about things before calling people’s posts a joke, or telling them they need to learn this or that. It’s easy to be a condescending know-it-all on the internet.
It was an easy and accurate assumption based on your weak analysis of the a player.
My lack of substance was intentional because there was no way around being condescending with this discussion.
Bottom line, judging a player solely by their WAR is extremely misguided. It’s hard for me to believe that someone with any kind of understanding of these statistics would use them this way.
I get it. You want to make him look worse than he actually is so your team wins.
You asked for substance…
Never said the Sox won. Never said the Pads won. I said it seems to be fair, although time will tell what these prospects wind up doing.
Quentin will do fine at the dish at Petco, as that park doesn’t affect righty-pull hitters too much. However, The Cell is a hitters park, and benefitted him a bit too.
He should hit HR in the low 20’s, and hit around .260 or so. He gets beaned a lot, so that helps his OBP.
I like Quentin. I like his intensity. I like his power. But overall, he is fairly one-dimensional. He’d make a great DH. I’ve read he is against DH’ing, but perhaps the Pads could sell him on it and flip him to an AL-team. He could fill in at the corner OF spots from time to time.
What is your position on Quentin? You’ve made several posts and haven’t said what you think of him. Just what you think of me and my posts.
My expectations for him offensively are similar to yours. I don’t see him as a downgrade in LF defensively where we would have had Blanks or Guzman out of position. The Padres desperately needed a proven bat in the middle of their lineup to take some pressure off such a young team. I’m hoping that intensity and his style of play means he wont be afraid of Petco. I’m also hoping he can stay healthy for 140+ games. I like it for both teams and feel that the two prospects aren’t getting enough credit. Castro has great stuff and his problems seem correctable. I see him as a very good setup man worst case scenario. Hernandez recently gained some velocity and should be a usable arm. They wanted to dump salary and did. They didn’t need Quentin in his final year because they aren’t going anywhere, and they got something back. Hopefully it works out for all parties.
This trade is dumb for both teams
Bad trade for Williams. Don’t know why Einsdorf and Reinhorn keep him around.
Very good trade for Sox. CQ doesn’t play always hurt. Remember when KW traded C Lee. Got Pods and a reliever. Looked bad at time. One tool players can’t made 8+M. (We already have one in Dunn) Pitching and D win games. Look at the Rays and Texas.
KW seems to be stockpiling young pitching. whether or not these two have any value, buying low on them while dumping salary on a one dimensional injury prone player is not a bad deal. I’m not sure if he’s rebuilding or retooling though with some of his trades and the Danks signing.
Kyle Blanks could be a nice trade target for the Indians imo. Could play him in LF and Brantley in CF if they needed to give Grady a breather, or also use him at first along with LaPorta, or DH him of course. That could be a nice fit. Seems like he’s being squeezed out of PT in SD so it maybe wouldn’t take much to land him, possibly an RP. Always thought Blanks could be a useful player given enough PT.
I too thought Blanks would do okay once he got over the arm injury and got steady ABs playing semi-full time.
Let’s see what he can do with 400 or so plate appearances.
Man, if I were a Sox fan, I’d be assembling petitions to have Kenny Williams fired. His trades have to be the worst in baseball!
Yeah, that Freddy Garcia for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez has to go down as one of the all-time worst trades ever.
For Philadelphia, that is.
And he did so good with getting a nice return when he traded Gio away. Um……
Let Don Cooper work with these guys before we cast judgement on how horrible a deal KW made.
Keith Law’s comment is spurious.
How is 150 games a significant number? From 2008 to 2011 97 currently active outfielders 27 or older played at least 100 games. Of those 41 played 150 or more at least once and 15 did it more than once. Narrowing that to left field 6 have done it at least twice and 1 has done it three times (Carlos Lee).
In that time Quentin’s played in 478 games with 1978 plate appearances netting an OBP of .352 Slugging of .505 and an rWAR of 7.7. Four players with at least as many games and plate appearances bettered those numbers, Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton and Jose Bautista. Source link to tinyurl.com I’d say that makes him a pretty good hitter and value. Now, is he a good fit for one year on a Padre team that’s going nowhere? No. He’ll leave next year and the new FA rules will give them nothing in return.
Good stuff. The problem with CQ is most of his value over those 4 years was from 2008, when he was an early MVP candidate.
It’s likely good value for the Pads, but they seem to be full of plodding power guys now. Obviously, more moves will happen
Dammit, I wanted to see more Blanks with the Padres next season!
People actually listen to these so called experts? Both Prospects don’t have any upside? Quentin not being a good fit for the Padres? Quentin would be a good fit for any team looking for his services. He can crush the ball out any where and has avg defense. Not Mediocre like this guy says. Plus, he makes up for his play’s alone on hustle and heart.
Hate to see Q go but had to happen. Sox farm system is completely depleted so its finally good to see there’s some sort of talent getting in there. De aza and Viciedo will definitely be solid for the sox this year, probably the few bright spots this year for the sox.
Hate to see Q go but had to happen. Sox farm system is completely depleted so its finally good to see there’s some sort of talent getting in there. De aza and Viciedo will definitely be solid for the sox this year, probably the few bright spots this year for the sox.
I actually like Quinten…only 31, has produced decently in spite of missing time over the past four seasons (he’s never had more than 500 AB’s in a season). But there’s got to be another move coming.
With Quinten, Rizzo, Alfonso, Guzman, Blanks, Denorfia, and Venable (That’s seven guys battling for PT at three positions, and none (other than maybe Rizzo) belong in the minors. Not too mention the need to move Bartlett and Hudson. There’s some decent players in there that could fetch a needed middle IF with a nice bat.
I imagine the Marlins/Ramierez situation is going to explode at some point…wouldn’t mind seeing the Pads make a pitch.
only 29
i like quentin, as a matter of fact he is my favorite player in the major leagues . he gives you 100 percent i hope he has a great year.. the cubs could use him, he would hit 50 homers there.. i hope the sox lose 100 games because of this move..
Reinsdorf’s Sox have had one of the higher payrolls in the league for like 6-7 seasons now. not cheap. KW isn’t an idiot, although lately I’ve been questioning him.
not an idiot????……..WOW!!! someone is a little hungover….you must have walked in the door say…4 hours ago
I have no idea what I’m talking about? I can name multiple deals in the past few years that were downright horrible. Trading Gio Gonzalez away twice should cost you your job!
Haha, no I was at work. I have a soft spot for KW I guess. Still, I think his time is about up in Chicago
I would really like to see the Padres at least try to flip Quentin, but by the sound of Byrnes’ comments after the trade, it does not seem like he will be moved. Of course, that could just be posturing. Last I remember reading, Guzman was playing LF and 3B in winter ball, but he should only be seriously considered at 1B. I assume Padres will roll with Alonso unless there’s some serious shift in ST, and Guzman will spell him at first against “tough lefties”. Guzman can also be used as PH (please no Kotsay) and DH during interleague. As for Blanks, he unfortunately seems like the odd man out unless they move Quentin.
In my perfect world, SD would:
Move Rizzo to AAA (and don’t move him unless bowled over).
Flip Quentin either prior to the season or at the deadline.
Give Blanks at least a season to establish himself with the big league club.
Not start Kotsay.
Alas, I’m not too hopeful for any of these.
Play Blanks and Quentin in the corners. Buddy is smart so Blanks will find a way past Venable and Denorfia. He’s also athletic enough, he did hit an inside the park homer, so what I’m saying is he’s mobile for 6’6.
Blanks can hit over 25 homers next year playing half his games in Petco if the pads choose to start him everyday.
You don’t have to worry about Kotsay starting. I wonder what Guzman could get the Padres? And I agree with you on Rizzo. At worst, if he lights up AAA again his trade value will only go up. If Blanks could play the outfield, maybe the Padres should try Rizzo in left.
I remember reading that Rizzo would be getting playing time in LF or has already started working there over the winter. He seems athletic enough, so hopefully he could be at worst below average defensively in LF.
Guzman could fetch something nice if he’s able to replicate last season’s success over a half or full season. He’ll be twenty-seven this coming season, and he’d still have five years of control left. Flip him at the deadline to a team in desperate need of 1B/DH help or trade him next winter. Not a clue as towards specifics though, although Tampa is in need of both a 1B and DH, and Chicago a 1B.
Even though he hasn’t produced well, I agree. At the very least, an innings eater, and I hope he’ll have a season closer to 2010 than last year. Plus, I love Mark Grant’s man-crush on him.
right on.just in good fun….