There’s been lots of buzz about a possible deal between Prince Fielder and the Nationals this week, so ESPN.com’s Buster Olney asked some talent evaluators about the impact the free agent first baseman would have in Washington. One evaluator says adding Fielder would make the Nationals “an immediate threat in the NL East” and another guesses Fielder would boost the organization's revenues. Here are the rest of Olney’s rumors, starting in the NL East:
- Some Marlins people aren’t convinced Carlos Zambrano’s stuff is good enough for him to be a frontline pitcher again, Olney writes. However, the Miami front office believes he’s worth the risk at $2.5MM.
- Olney wonders if the Rays have interest in Daniel Murphy of the Mets. The Rays need a first baseman and the 26-year-old posted a .320/.362/.448 line in 423 plate appearances last year while playing first, second, third and left field.
- Many talent evaluators consider Matt Garza a middle-of-the-rotation starter, which may contribute to the gap between the Cubs’ asking price and what rival teams have been offering in trade talks, Olney writes.
Will any team give the Cubs three “A-list” prospects, or whatever the absurd asking price? Seems unlikely…
no they won’t and thats fine….theo is asking that cause if someone gives that package then ok…and if not then we got a #2 starter for a good price for the next few yrs.
They may at the deadline.
No way Theo holds on to him as a cost controlled #2. Come the deadline, either someone comes up to get him, or Theo lowers his demands. No reason to keep him unless you’re sure of extending him.
if garza is still on the team a year from now it will be a failure on theo’s part. garza’s production has very little value for the cubs given where they’re going to be for the next few years. hold out for the best deal (thats a given), but in the end if they want to help themselves rebuild quickly, he has to be dealt.
The Cubs can ask for that because they don’t have to trade him. They have the money to extend him and keep him around much like the White Sox did with Danks, even though both teams are in a mild rebuild. He could be more valuable at the trade deadline if a contending team thinks he can push them over the edge. Either way, as a Cubs fan, I will be happy if he stays or goes.
Saying the Cubs are in a “mild” rebuild can only come from a diehard. lol
Teams with sub 80 MIL payrolls need to do total tear down rebuilds because they don’t have money to spend on free agents. The Cubs will probably settle around the 120 MIL over the next two years and have almost nothing on the books other than Soriano after next year. They are in very good shape to be MAJOR players in free agency.
Wasn’t being “MAJOR” players in free agency what got them into this mess in the first place?
Other rumors here have said that the Cubs are willing to trade every player from their major league roster (I’d exempt Castro, myself) in order to get prospects. That doesn’t sound much like a “mild” rebuild.
If it isn’t nailed to the floor, and still has anything resembling value (no matter how small), I’d bet on it being gone by midseason at the latest.
Being major players in free agency hurt them because Hendry gave backloaded contracts with no-trade clauses. Now Theo hasn’t had the greatest track record either with free agents, but then again he is in the NL Central now and not competeing with the Yankees.
It was the ownership wanting to throw out huge money in order to inflate the value of the team before selling it.
The Farm system is fairly strong in the outfield, middle infield, catcher, and relief pitching. Starting pitching is extremely weak. The corner infielders look like career AAA players at best.
Under the old CBA, the strategy would be a lot different and a longer process, but under the knew one, free agency will be a lot more prominent in rebuilding.
Where are you getting this from? If they had a strong farm system I’m pretty sure the majority of their starters would of been sent down for those players in their “strong” farm system.
Just because a position has promising players doesn’t mean they’re promising at the AAA level. The Cubs lower levels have a lot of interesting players.
Did you guys re-sign Pujols?
Unfortunately for you, no we didn’t.
Yeah…. Thats a shame!
For the Cubs, yes it is. About the time the Cubs are ready to compete again a declining Pujols would have been way overpaid.
Now by the time the Cubs are ready to compete the Cardinals will have their new,young nucleus and a lot of money to spend.
Given the state of the Cubs farm system, it better be alot more than a “mild rebuild” if Theo wants a competitive team.
That being said, if Garza is healthy, he’ll get a much bigger return mid-season, so there is no reason to trade him now.
Marlins were willing to give Yelch, I believe. They went for a different pitcher in your rotation to fill out the starting 5, though.
No, especially afrer the haul the Rays got for the guy.
if the nats are smart they’ll take their time and wait…..and wait some more and let the price really drop. there isn’t any competition for them in dealing with fielder….theo said yesterday that they would go with a triple a 1bman and seattle and baltimore don’t got the moolah to make a big offer
The Os actually have as much money as any team in baseball to spend. The owner lid among the worst in the history of sports so he won’t. But they certainly do have the money to spend.
Exactly. Who is the last team to lead the league in payroll other than the Yankees? Guess what it isn’t the Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, etc. It is the Orioles. Angelos is scared of another Joey (Albert) Belle contract and other than Tejada hasn’t opened up his wallet since.
Gotta be careful how far you let the price drop. There is a point at which Milwaukee is back in the bidding, and the Yankees and/or Red Sox decide they need an upgrade at DH.
Obviously, all three are out at Fielder’s current asking price, but there is a point at which they are in.
Quite frankly, if the price drops low enough, the Cubs are back in too, regardless of what Theo said.
I’d hate to see how low the asking price would have to get for the Red Sox to actually be in on him.
Alot lower than when Theo was still there, that’s for sure. No more Crawford/Lackey contracts now.
Not for a while anyway, but that’s not even my reasoning. The reason it would have to get extremely low is because Ortiz already accepted arbitration so they would have to deal with the fallout from cutting him, plus a one year deal works best for them anyway (Youkilis will likely need time in the DH spot next year, and they also have Lavarnway who will need to spend time at DH if they plan on getting him sufficient ABs), so for it to be worth them dealing with having to cut Ortiz + keep Youkilis at 3B full time + not being able to play Lavarnway, it would have to be a crazy bargain.
I like Daniel Murphy but he’s more valuable at 2B. I’d like to see the Rays get alittle more pop at 1B.
I think the Mets may not be willing to keep Murphy at 2b because of the glut of prospects at the position throughout the organization. However, would it be a better choice to trade Wright, move Daniel back to 3b and build around the younger (and less pricey) talent?
On another note, Omar was a nice minor league pickup this offseason. Don’t be surprised if you see him playing shortstop most of this season.
Wade Davis for Daniel Murphy?
It’s looking more and more like D.C. will be the landing spot for Fielder, with having the richest owner in baseball and a new tv deal that could double or triple revenue it seems like the right move to make to push this team into contender status.
Desmond SS
Espinosa 2B
Zimmerman 3B
Fielder 1B
Morse LF
Werth RF
Ramos C
Bernadina RF- Harper joining later in the year
Strasburg, Gio, Zimm, Wang, Detwiler
Looks like a playoff contender to me
Werth in CF?
most likely for this year, yes
Definitely…but…Miami, Atlanta and Philly all have something similar to that lineup and rotation.
I was talking about Werth in center.
Even so, at least on paper, i think this surpasses us from miami and most likely atlanta, too.
of course, paper isn’t where the games are played..
That is a powerhouse lineup through the middle…lacking some top end but not bad. The defensive side of this is a tad lack. Past Zim, the rotation is fair at best, Wang is average, Detwiler is young but looks promising. BP is solid. Bench is a ?
The NL east is going to be a real race next year if this happens, they will reek havoc on the other divisions i suspect. The Phils still have the edge, but i say the 2,3,4 slots are a toss up at this point, and interdivision play is going to be HUGE.
Why you gotta rip on Wang, Det and Lannan as options for 4 and 5 starters? They are back of the rotations that are just as good as any in the majors save maybe one or two teams.
Nats need a 2B. I don’t see much at all in Desmond and I think Espinosa can be a great SS.
Desmond leading off by default I guess.
What happens to LaRoche? And why not keep Werth in RF and Bernadina in CF?
im so sick of bernadina
I would rather have Anthony Rizzo or Mark Trumbo/Kendrys Morales or a 1 year deal for Pena but Murphy is a nice fall back option. Of course, one wonders how much, if any, he improves over Kotchman.
While Big Z. is a headcase and risk, I believe he will bounce back to career avg numbers.
He is up for free agency after this year, playing in a new town with a semi-fresh start in a latin community that somewhat embraces his type, and under Ozzie whom is known to be his mentor and friend. I really see very little risk at all for the Marlins, Volstad was predictably average at best every year. Down side is Marlins only got 1 year of Z…and Volstad really only can go up from where he is, but he was getting expensive for at best a AAAA pitcher.
Even without a bounce back, his numbers in the last few years are better than Volstad’s, yet his cost to the Marlins is the same as Volstad’s would have been.
As far as on the field production goes, the Marlins can’t lose on this one. At worst, Zambrano gives you equal to what Volstad did, and at the same cost.
The only problem is whether being a “headcase” is going to affect this deal. The Marlins already have a few big egos on the team, and additional clubhouse drama isn’t going to make them better. Of course, winning often cures these problems…
IMO the Marlins are gonna be way too over confident with this overhaul.
It was a good move for both teams, Z is no more risky with his attitude than Volstad was with his HR vulnerability. Ozzie can hopefully control the temper, and Volstad can level off his HR rate, and everyone wins.
The major difference being when Volstad gives up home runs, it only affects his own attitude and demeanor. When Zambrano explodes, it affects the entire team, negatively.
losses affect the entire team. volstad= career loser
…and I quote from the piece ”
Many talent evaluators consider Matt Garza a middle-of-the-rotation starter, which may contribute to the gap between the Cubs’ asking price and what rival teams have been offering in trade talks”.
Well considering Epstein considers him a front line starter. I think it’s a pretty good bet that’s where the gap lies.
Man, it’s certainly a coincidence that even though 4 or 5 teams have had interest in Garza, all of a sudden he’s a middle of the rotation pitcher…it’s not as if there’d be any reason to leak to the media that he’s not as good as what the Cubs want for him…I mean, why would teams want to depress the market? Just so they could have a chance at him even though they’re not able to meet the current Cubs demands? Haha, so unlikely. Teams would never use the media to try and influence things.
“all of a sudden he’s a middle of the rotation pitcher”
Hmm. Last I checked, Garza was always a mid rotation guy.
By what measure? You think there are 50/60 pitchers in baseball better than Matt Garza? There certainly weren’t last year. There weren’t even 30. He’s not Halladay, but come on.
So now we’re basing his value on one year, last year, in a league that is both pitcher friendly and that Garza in particular, was new too?
If you’d like to go back and include his solid years in the AL East, I’d be more than happy to include those in the discussion.
sounds good. from 2009-2011, he is 59th in adjusted FIP, 47th in adjusted ERA, and 46th in SIERA
So… a solid 2? Agreed. That’s not middle of the rotation.
#2 is within the range of possibilities, sure. so is #3. those numbers basically match ryan dempster
He had the 27th best ERA and the 46th best WHIP among qualified leaders last year.
In a normal rotation, I’d think he’s a #2. In a good rotation, he could easily be a #3.
And he was 13th in Fangraphs WAR and 8th in FIP.
All of that is just last year though, every year before that he was no where near as good, so expecting him to maintain that performance is foolish.
Let’s look at the teams most interested in Garza:
Yankees. Is he better than Sabathia? Not really.
Tigers. Is he better than Verlander? Nope.
See discussion above. For the Cardinals, Phillies, Giants, maybe Rays or Angels, he’s a #3 (#4 for Phillies, actually). Alot of other teams (Marlins, Nationals, Dodgers, etc.) have an ace already, so he’s a #2.
I’ll not argue him as a middle of the rotation guy, but he’s not an ace, and the better rotations (Cardinals, Phillies, Giants), he’s not a #2 either.
“Not really” is quite an understatement when asking if Garza is better than Sabathia.
Except Garza is a middle of the rotation pitcher, and pretty much everyone knows it.
I’ll agree, but 30 days ago, on this forum, people were convinced Garza would net a huge return and that he would be an ace on many teams. I only bring this up because I argued fiercely he was nothing more than a solid 3/4, with only 2 years control and that he wouldn’t produce that large of a return, despite having a little more success last season, in a weaker division, in the NL.
You say: “and pretty much everyone knows it.” I say “NOW pretty much everyone knows it.” It took a while, as always, but I like when writers finally come out and say it like it is.
I’ve always maintained that he is a mid-rotation pitcher, although I will admit that when I saw what Latos and Gio traded for I thought the Cubs might be able to get more than what mid-rotation pitchers generally bring (not because I thought he was an Ace, but because people seemed to be willing to give up a lot of talent for pitching).
I’ll agree with that also. I too was a bit concerned, from the Yankee point of view that once Gio and Latos were moved, both for very good packages, Garza would soon follow. Truth is, it just seems like most GM’s really won’t pay up for this guy and frankly, will wait for Theo to break it down further. I suppose the best argument to be made for Garza’s value is that he may net a better package in July if he has 3 solid months and to a team who really needs the arm at that point. If Garza pitches to a sub 3.00 ERA, has great peripherals and has already won 8-10 games by June, perhaps then it will be easier to validate his “transformation” Until then, he’s only had one really good year. If I were a GM, I hardly fork over a single A prospect at this point.
I could still see someone paying more than they should for him, but Theo’s asking price of three top prospects is ridiculous. I honestly don’t understand why anyone is even talking to him at that price though, especially will other quality options available out there.
He was a 5 WAR pitcher, he is not a 3/4… it’s really that simple.
and a 1.6 WAR pitcher the year before. but we’ll ignore that year. 2011 is his true talent level because that is more convenient
It’s really not that simple; believing that he is a completely different pitcher after a single good year is a ridiculous thing to do.
He went from a fastball pitcher to relying HEAVILY on his slider. He completely reworked his pitching and remade himself as a pitcher.
But go ahead and think he didn’t since it’s more convenient for your arguments.
I know he changed his pitching style last year, and I never meant to imply that he can’t be better than his Tampa years going forward, but he’s not likely going to be last year’s Garza from now on either.
His slider had negative value two out of three years in Tampa, so unless he can consistently have a better slider, throwing it more often isn’t going to help as much going forward, and going to the NL from not just the AL but the AL East very realistically could have been as much (or more) of a factor in his success than his new pitching style.
I doubt either the Yankees or Tigers (the two teams most linked to Garza) view him as an ace.
That being said, even if they did, the Cubs current asking price is far greater than the return for Matt Latos, even though Latos has better stats and more years of team control. Why would a team meet the Cubs current demands?
Granted, there is no need for the Cubs to trade him now (they may get their asking price come trade deadline), but the current price is obscene.
I disagree that Latos had much better stats. I think if Garza pitched in San Diego, his stats would look better too.
Edit: Garza was better by ERA+ and WAR last year, both B-R and Fangraphs. Latos is younger, but that’s a different discussion.
But irregardless, the difference is leverage. The Padres weren’t signing Latos to a big extension. The Cubs can.
And Latos was significantly better in 2010. Career wise, they have the same ERA+, but Latos has a much better WHIP.
The youth is the key for me. I’d rather trade talent for Latos than for Garza, but the Cubs want a bigger return for Garza. Sure, they can sign him to an extension, like the White Sox did with Danks. If you want to rebuild, though, why wouldn’t you trade him?
I guess the answer is because one of the quickest ways to rebuild is to build a really good rotation, and if the Cubs don’t feel like they’re getting more long-term value by trading Garza than by keeping him, they won’t trade him.
And as for Garza going forward, he actually changed how he pitched this past year, becoming much less reliant on fastballs, and it paid dividends.
Ugh, it boggles my mind that the Nationals would consider handing out another gigantic contract to Fielder. How long did it take to regret the Werth signing? About 2 months? Yes landing Fielder will make them better in the short-term but I’m betting he isn’t going to age well and that contract will become an albatross within 3 years.
Werth’s contract was pretty much regrettable within hours of signing. Fielder, worst case scenario won’t be a regrettable contract for at least 3-4 years. Best case scenario is he doesn’t turn into his father. The real question does become in 5 years when Werth, Fielder, and likely Zimmerman are all getting paid a lot of money, who else can they afford.
An 86-year-old worth $3.5 billion dollars could probably afford quite a few other people, if he wanted to try and make a run at a world series before kicking the bucket.
Exactly, if they have huge commitments to Werth and Fielder, it isn’t going to be easy to keep Zimmerman around, not to mention Strasburg, Harper, or Jordan Zimmermann. But if they can make themselves a playoff team right now by signing Fielder, maybe management doesn’t care.
Fielder will opt out before the contract ever becomes an albtross. The Nats are stuck with Werth, but that is not news.
I’ve heard that the reason the Nats have been so slow on extending Zimmerman is because of his throwing errors, the injury problems he’s had, and because they want to see how Rendon pans out. At this point Strasburg and Harper have replaced him as the face of the franchise, so if Rendon works out I could see them letting Zimmerman walk.
They’ll also likely be doling out nine-figure deals to Strasburg and Harper by then.
No one would be talking about fielder signing there if it wasn’t for that Werth contract. They paid their “suckitude” overpay tax, improved by 10 wins and now are legitimate players. Was it a bad deal? certainly in terms of dollars, but it ultimately may pay for itself in 5 years if the team is as good as many think and that stadium is sold out every night. Look at the team just 40 miles north. No one will sign with them because they wont pay the “suckitude” tax. DC is a big market and that team if good could support a payroll near what the Phillies have if Nats Park was full every night
To get out of basement and attract top range talent in the future at affordable rates might mean overpaying initially. Better players, when presented with similar contract offers, very rarely take the lousy team. Look at Baltimore for instance. So you overpay now and reap the benefits in the future.
DC has no financial constraints at the moment. They are in the wealthiest demographic in the country. Eight of the wealthiest top 16 counties in the country surround DC. After all that is where all your tax money is going. The Lerner family is the wealthiest owners in baseball if not all sports. The media revenue is about to double or triple. It is a smart business move to overpay now – the dividends will reap in the future.
“Many talent evaluators consider Matt Garza a middle-of-the-rotation starter”
Finally someone said it and leave it to Buster to post news worth reading. I’ve been saying this all along and I’ve read many on here who consider Garza an ace and that it would definitely take Banuelos, Betances, Montero to get him. Please.
I’d give up Warren, Phelps and Romine. That’s it. The Jays could easily beat that offer, so I say, go right ahead. Frankly, I don’t even want Garza on the Yankees.
So Colon over Garza? Lol. More power to you. Garza is a 2 and at worst a #3 starter on 95% of teams in the MLB. 2 A list prospects and 2 B list prospects are the LEAST Theo will take for Garza. And rightfully so. See the other pitcher trades so far this year. The Cubs sit in the catbirds seat right now and are just waiting for the right deal to come along and SOMEONE will pay what the Cubs want. Right now Garza is the best TRADEABLE pitcher on the market. Above market price will be asked and most likely will be received.
Who said anything about Colon? Did I make that comparison? No. The Yankees have their starting five set and Colon is not part of it for the upcoming season. Spare me the jokes of whether or not that’s a good starting five in CC, Nova, AJ, Hughes, Garcia. Let’s evaluate that in July. Just maybe Hughes (who’s had intensive off season training this year) and AJ who’s due for a good season show up this year. It’s just as much of a gamble as acquiring Garza. None of these pitchers are sure things and considering we’re paying AJ $16.5mm already, the cost of several prospects and the addition of another $9mm in salary (Garza) that risk is far too great over what the Yankees currently have.
You say: “are the LEAST Theo will take for Garza”
Big difference btw what “you will take” versus what the market will bear.
…and we have one of our first “best shape of his life” stories. How often do those actually lead to a disappointing player reaching his potential?
As I stated, he is just as much of a gamble. No where did I insinuate that Hughes would be the come back player of the year. However, going through a fairly specialized intensive training, which is what Hughes is currently doing, that does create some optimism for an improved 2012 season.
I’d rather role the die on that versus having to forfeit some top prospects for Garza when frankly, the same risks apply.
Misses the point entirely. Will some team pay it? Maybe. Will they regret paying it later? Probably.
I certainly wouldn’t want my team to match the Cubs asking price (granted, my team isn’t bidding, but still).
Joe Blanton could have almost the same production as Garza. Why doesn’t a contending team make a trade with the Phillies, I doubt they would ask as much in return.
On what planet does Joe Blanton = Matt Garza? I could see overrating Garza by calling him an ace, but he’s certainly better than Joe Blanton.
Fangraphs has Garza ranked in the same tier in 2012 as Stephen Strasburg, Tommy Hanson, and Adam Wainwright. That’s hardly Joe Blanton territory.
Also, you’re an Orioles fan – don’t tell me that Garza wouldn’t instantly be the ace in your rotation too. Garza’s a solid #2 in any rotation except for maybe the Phillies, Giants, Rays, or Angels, where he’d probably be a #3.
I’d add Cardinals to the list of #3’s, since Carpenter is still their ace. Granted, in a couple of years, Garza will overtake him.
Also, for the Phillies, Hamels is also better than Garza, so he’s the #4 there, at best.
I agree on both counts – Cards were an oversight on my part. Garza and Jaime are pretty close as well, honestly.
Can we add the Nats to your list as well? No way Garza would pitch in front of Sras or Gio.
Honestly, I think Garza is a slightly superior pitcher to Gio. I would, however, put Garza ahead of Strasburg (at least for 2012) just to limit the innings on his arm.
101, you don’t have to say you THINK Garza is a better pitcher than Gio; he IS a better pitcher than Gio.
Garza pitched in a tougher division when he was in the AL East and more than held his own AND he won the ALCS MVP in 2008. He is playoff tested and proven.
For a playoff contending team like the Nats, they would want a pitcher who has been in the playoffs and has succeeded.
That being said, I still hope the Cubs keep Garza.
Joe Blanton is an awful pitcher. He makes Pelfrey look like a frontline starter.
edit
“and another GUESSES Fielder would boost the organization’s revenues.”
Well DUH! Ya think?!!
If Garza is a middle of the rotation starter then that’s a great starting rotation!
“Some Marlins people aren’t convinced Zambrano can be a frontline pitcher anymore.” Real shocking news there, Olney. Try “no one in the baseball universe thinks Zambrano will ever be a frontline pitcher again.” Guy really likes to go out on a limb with his rumors, doesn’t he?
Exactly, Zambrano is a cheap experiment at $2.5M, one that the Marlins are willing to try since his buddy Guillen is the manager and since it got rid of Volstad (with Vasquez most likely not coming back).
I think Fielder would definitely boost the Nat’s revenues, but just him making them an immediate threat in the NL East? To who, the Mutts?
They finished better than the Fish last season and that was with no Zimmerman for a month and a half, no strasburg until the last month and with their #2 pitcher on an innings limit. Assuming Werth bounces his back to his career norms you’re crazy to think fielder doesn’t make the Nats a contender with that bullpen and a 1-2-3 of Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Gio.