We saw not one, but two historic contract extensions handed out today. Here's the latest from around the league…
- "I did not seriously think so. The truth is, I don't have to," said Matt Cain to John Shea of The San Francisco Chronicle when asked if he had thought about pitching for the rival Dodgers (Twitter link). The Giants and Cain agreed to a five-year, $112.5MM contract extension today.
- Earlier today we heard from Zack Greinke, and tonight WEEI.com's Rob Bradford wrote about what Cain's deal could mean for Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester. Lester can become a free agent after 2014, assuming his option is picked up.
- ESPN's Jim Bowden says not to be surprised if the Giants lock up Madison Bumgarner and not Tim Lincecum at some point during the next two seasons following the Cain deal.
- Joey Votto's ten-year, $225MM extension is "going to have lasting repercussions on the sport," says Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. Meanwhile, ESPN's Keith Law says it's "an extension [the Reds] almost certainly will regret before it reaches its halfway point."
- “I’m reserving the right to use that word retire, I guess.” said Javier Vazquez to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. “I’m not planning on playing, but I don’t want to retire, because I don’t want to say I’m retired and then come back. I want to make sure. Right now, I’m not planning on coming back or anything.”
Do they always have to rag on the Reds for everything they try to do….. They are so bias toward big market clubs
It’s Keith Law. He rags on everything.
I rarely say this, and I may have to have a drink afterwards to wash the bad taste out of my mouth, but I agree with Law.
I think this was a desperate move to in in the next couple of years at the expensive of several more years. I think Votto is a great talent, easily top 5 among active hitters. But Cincinnati is not the kind of market that can afford $200M deals.
The thing is, that contract was totally warranted… IF he reached free agency. but 2 years before free agency, he didn’t give the reds a penny of a discount.
He’s an awesome player, I’m a huge fan, but 2 years too long.
how i see it is if they wait till even next year, Votto tests free agency. Everyone knew that, and the Reds knew they traded his replacement. They were really at Votto’s mercy
yah but in 2 years, can you imagine Votto getting more than the deal he just got? Not likely.
and that’s not including that the next years he will still have to go out and be a 6-7 WAR player.
I do agree. Its a lot of money, now. Probably about FA value. But to get him to stay in Cincy was going to be expensive. And honestly, was it expected that if he reached FA that he was not going to leave? Or at least SERIOUSLY think about it? Both Albert and Fielder got huge deals and you can say that Votto is a safer bet than either of them. Like I said before, there was no one to take over for Votto if he leaves. I’d be surprised if he is worth the total value, but the fact that he is in Cincy will be worth it for them, as long as he stays on the field most of the time. He provides on the field and off the field pluses for the team that no other player on the roster would provide for them.
don’t get me wrong I love that Cincy did this and I love that Votto wants to stay.. I just wish he gave them more of a discount.
only thing i can say is that it is 20M average, while the PF and AP contracts average is well over 23M. So not much, but theoretically 30M or more taken off
Desperate? That is a reach. More along the lines of they didn’t want to see him walk the same way AP & PF did to the Cards & Brewers. Will they regret it? Only if it doesn’t bring them a lot of success.
he was 2 years away from walking. 10/225 is a free agent contract, not an extension you give to a guy 2 full seasons from free agency
How does that make the move desperate? You just validated my point in that is was not a move of desperation because he was already under contract for two more years.
i’m not arguing that it was desperate; i don’t know how to determine that and i don’t think it really matters. whether it was desperation or the product of some strange new strategy, it looks like a mistake right now
Why is it so cool to say every contract is a bad one that will be regretted. It just seems that this is the way baseba is going and one can only imagine what Bryce Harper, Stephen Strassburg, Eric Hosmer, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Trout will get if they all live up to their potential (Kershaw having done so already)
Votto wasnt gonna stay there for 6/120. It’s just a fact. Yes, it would have been ideal, but it wasn’t realistic. He wasn’t gonna stay for 8/160. This was a guy that the Reds needed to sign (especially after the Alonso trade) for the fans and is a very nice player to build a team around.
No one says the Longoria deal is regrettable. Does anyone think Clayton Kershaw’s 2 year/$19M was too much?
Remember when the Braves gave Greg Maddux $28M over 5 years?-wtk
that would be a strong rationale if the cardinals were making it about pujols this year or if votto were about to hit free agency. it is not a strong rationale in this situation
it is completely standard for a player to give a small discount in exchange for receiving an extension early. votto took no discount at all. he received a free agent contract without being anywhere close to free agency
I know someone can’t write the whole point of Law’s article, but if possible, can you give me a quick recap? I assume its something along the lines of “too much money, too soon” type thing, right?
All Law’s blogs go like this:
Blah Blah (Insert something to anger fans) Blah Blah lol
Bradford is right on with Lester and makes excellent points regarding how Boston will be able to retain him, Ells after 2013 and Pedey after 2015. Choices will have to be made. Those seem to be all 20m players now and I see them only retaining 2 max. Ells is the one whom I see having the least amount of LT value of holding up, as well as costing the most to retain and should be the one allowed to walk. Pedey probably wants to stay anyway and may stay for less than 20m AAV anyway, but Lester now.. With Cain’s deal, Lester better numbers and vs AL East teams.. It may take 23-25m for 5 seasons and THAT is scary.
Just curious, but why do you think Pedroia’s long term value will hold up? No knock on him-he’s a terrific player, but history hasn’t been kind to middle infielders (especially second basemen) retaining a high level of ability into their middle 30’s. And Pedroia’s not a big guy.
Cost factor and think he will still be able to field at a high level into his mid 30’s and even hit with his hard hacks until his 34-35 year age.
Also think it will easily cost 6-7 years at well over 20m to sign Ells with Boras as an agent and Pedey, who am pretty sure wants to remain with Boston anyway, would probably stay in Boston for far shorter (3-5 years) and far shorter money.. Say 15m or so tops AAV or slightly less. I really doubt either will be stealing bases as they age anyway and pedey has the glove for position by far.. Yes.. Ells won a GG, but Pedey is one of the finest fielding 2b in the game..Period and that includes range + hands.
This contract will take Votto till he’s 40. WOW!
Well the Reds now have two great hitters (Votto and Bruce) and two good potentially great pitchers (Cueto and Latos) under team control for the next 4 years. Not to mention still a number of good to great prospects. Thats how you win in a small market Keith Law. Something you were never good at, see Toronto Blue Jays
And what have the Reds “won” lately?
Can someone explain to me why Saber fans aren’t all over Matt Cain? I personally think he’s great, but his peripherals, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA and such are nowhere near Greinke, Cliff Lee, or Hamels levels. I’m not trying to make any statements about any of these stats’ validities, but I am legitimately curious as to why this is a fight I never see picked.
Dude, go to FanGraphs.
They have a weekly diatribe on why Matt Cain is the luckiest pitcher in MLB history, and how he is about to blow up any time. They’ve been saying this for years now.
“This is a good deal for both Cain and the Giants.”
– fangraphs yesterday
Dodgers fans thank the baseball gods that these guys are off the market (Votto, Cain). Cain signing was ok but i don’t like the money. Under .500 pitcher in his career. ERA is solid and innings and playoff, but he’s been up since 20-22 and has tossed a lot innings. Votto for ten years until 2023 i believe. Big mistake!!! Why because I do believe his numbers are inflated by the ball park. Would like to see how he does AT&T, PETCO, and Dodger stadium and I forgot face Cain, Lincecum,Bumgarner, Kershaw, Billingsley,Kennedy, Hudson,and I’ll stop there
His numbers are inflated by the park but why does it matter in this case? He is not signing with a different team, he is going to play in that park so he is getting paid for the expected numbers from that park.
As far as the pitchers you mentioned, he does pretty good against them actually. Assuming Hudson is Daniel Hudson as every other pitcher you have listed is in the NL West : He is 29/87 (.333), 5 hr, 16 RBI 24K (9k vs Kershaw). Although I did not calculate the OPS he has an OPS of over 1 vs Lincecum, Bumgarner, Kennedy and Hudson. His OPS is 911 vs Billingsley and 919 vs Keshaw. Cain is the only one to really hold him down.
As far as the parks go he owns PETCO (16/40, 4hr 1.239 OPS) ans the other 2 his numbers are more normal but still good for a visiting player. If those parks were his home park he would adjust and do well for those parks.
Matt Cain’s FIP and ERA-/+ are pretty good so it’s not like the ballpark makes much of a difference. Wins and Losses are a team stat. If you’re not getting any run support then you’re not getting Ws unless you’re throwing shutouts every start.
If you think Votto’s stats are inflated by the home ballpark, you should do some research first. He’s put up better numbers on the road pretty much every season, sometimes much better
Obviously Lester will be in for a significant payday come the 2015 season. I don’t know that using Cain’s numbers is fair however. There is or will be one very big difference Lester will be 32 years of age when the 2015 season arrives. A very big difference then Cain who today is only 27 and will only be 28 when his new contract kicks in.