Email a copy of 'Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Villanueva' to a friend
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By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
Email a copy of 'Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Villanueva' to a friend
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Sounds like the Phillies Kyle Kendrick. Signed 2 year 7.5mil extension this offseason. I think something along those lines would be his value.
Lunchbox45
While I don’t disagree with what AA had to say.. I just find it odd that he would voice his opinion publicly. like that. CV has every right to be upset.
Shawn Burrell
I just dont see what was so bad about what AA said other than the notion he maybe shouldn’t have said anything at all…
Lunchbox45
he shouldn’t have said anything at all.
go_jays_go
GM AA is trying to temper Villaneuva’s exciting when he reaches free agency.
I think when GM AA offers Villaneuva a ‘small’ contract, he doesn’t want him to be offended by such a small offer.
There’s some game theory involved. It would be strange for GM AA to speak his mind without some sort of benefit.
Lunchbox45
AA isn’t a mastermind he didn’t make those comments to lower his perceived value, you guys give him WAY too much credit.
go_jays_go
Well there are really only two ways to perceive GM AA.
1) GM AA’s remarks were strategically made to lower CV’s value
2) GM AA made those remarks simply because he wanted to talk smack, which would hurt him in the backlash.
Jaysfan724
I disagree, he had none of those intentions in mind. I think his answer was simply a matter of himself asking, “Will the risk be worth the reward?” in terms of signing him as a full-time starter for multiple years.
go_jays_go
All GMs are suppose to ask themselves, “Will the risk be worth the reward?”
It doesn’t explain why GM AA made those comments explicitly known to the public.
Jaysfan724
According to Fangraphs, Villanueva has pitched to a $5.1 million dollar contract this year. I would say anything from 4-6 mill per year is in range for Carlos. I would only offer him 2-3 years because like AA mentions, we do not know his true durability. The great thing about Carlos is even if he does not work out as a full-time starter, you can count on him as a long man out of the pen. I wouldn’t say this decision is on the level of risky extensions like EE and Bautista in terms of the unknown, but AA needs to make a decision before he gets away. And I’m sure AA’s words do not help keep Carlos in the door any longer.
johnsmith4
Poor Carlos is about to get his bubble burst when he enters the free agent market. I doubt he gets more than a one year deal. In fact, he might have to agree to a team option.
Last year, Jason Marquis received $3mil for one year. Kevin Millwood received $1mil for one year. I can’t find anything higher for a starting pitcher who has his durability in doubt.
I will be surprised if Carlos does any better. Teams pay free agents on established performance. Not potential. Only draft picks and amateur free agents get paid on potential.
johnsilver
Twins gave Marquis that deal and they have a rotation full of likewise rubbish throwers. Doubt they make that mistake again and will be cleaning house of that type of SP as after all these years of going in that direction? Figured out the Pavano/Marquis/Blackburn/Baker’s of the world are not going to get the job done.
johnsmith4
I think you just described the characteristics of the “market maker” Villanueva needs to drive up his value.
johnsilver
It shocks me when teams give LT deals to people like that. Most of the time they are highly volatile. Nothing but pin point control and have nothing to fall back on if they lose it from one game to the next, or series of months as is the case of people like Marquis. It’s like them throwing BP when they cannot control, say their slider, or sinker from game to game and then have to rely on an 88mph FB.
johnsmith4
This might explain why Villanueva has suffered arm strain a few times in his career. Mustering all his strength to throw 88 when his exceptional command drops down to average command.
Shawn Burrell
I didnt find what AA said to be that condescending.,, he applauded CV for his efforts this season, but he makes a valid point. The guy has never pitched 200 innings or started more than 20 games in a season in his career. While his comments may have been a little tongue in cheek, they certainly werent unwarranted. Had AA not complimented him, I could see the reaction being negative, but he had nothing but nice things to say about CV… I think he just took it as slander. His choice.
bigpat
Baltimore already had a better season than super GM out in Toronto, much to everyone’s surprise, and they are running out of excuses if they don’t put something together soon.
Not sure why they wouldn’t want to keep Villanueva around unless they plan to bring in two more pitchers, one of which of the high quality variety. Pretty silly things to say about the pitcher considering he’s never had a chance to go 200 innings or start a full season. He’s been great thus far and many other pitchers have became starters, it’s very possible for him to sustain a success.
Lunchbox45
all kinds of wrong.
there is no reason to pay someone for 90 starts in the next 3 seasons because they made 14 this year. You are buying way too high
the reality is, that best case scenario, CV is fighting out for the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation with happ and alvarez. So why would you make that kind of commitment when you have players under contract already who can offer the same level of performance??
and not sure what you mean by running out of excuses, the jays never made claims that 2012 was their year, it was an average team who was riddled with injuries. The notion that they should have already been in the playoffs or won a WS by now is laughable. Its that kind of shortsightedness that left the jays mediocre for so long in the first place.
They are in a good spot financially, they literally have no bad contracts and no financially commitments weighing them down. They have a maturing top 5 farm system and *when healthy have a devastating offensive line up that excels defensively.
This wasn’t their year, but no one said it HAD to be
Budyzer
It makes little sense to cause animosity and hurt feelings with the only pitcher who has been worth a grain of salt this year in the jays rotation… It’s all for the sake of being cheap and trying to nickel and dime the guy for what a mere 5 mill ? Jesus the are paying Lind the massive bum that much to whine about his back and strike out ! I dont see what going public and cutting the guy down does except ensure he isn’t going to sign with the jays after you bad mouthed him when free agent pitching is what you are going to need this offseason
FriedCalamari
2/11 + mutual option 6; 500k buyout. #5 starter battle with Happ. I think that should be OK.
Worst case scenario for 2013: morrow, ?, romero, happy, villa
Beast case: ?, morrow, ?, romero, happy/villa
go_jays_go
– Morrow/Romero should make for a fine #2/#3 tandem.
– Happ/CV should make for a fine #4/#5 tandem.
– The Blue Jays need a real ace to anchor the rotation
Everyone else needs to play at their capabilities. The 2011 Romero would have made for a fine #2 starter on almost any rotation.
crashcameron
have been thinking what apparently others have, too: some kind of package for various combo of Choo, Masterson/Jiminez all the way to including Asdrubul. there;s a fit in terms of potential of prospects (jays) for potential of prime (Choo etc). but injuries have hurt Jays even in this, since a Drabek or Hutchison would have been carrots. Moises Sierra? Alvarez?
Simon Broder
Seems pretty obvious AA is negotiating. I’m fine with 2 years at $5M/per, but only Anthopoulos knows how much wiggle room he has and only those guys and the agents know exactly what CV thinks he’s worth.
Howard
After looking at his stats since being in Milwaukee and now in Toronto, he’s actually a pretty good gamble. I’d flash him about 16m on a 4 year deal. Or 3 years for 18m tops right now.
burritolikethesun
As a Brewers fan, it is against my religion to consider offering Carlos a multiyear.