The Phillies are out to a strong 16-10 start here in 2024 and a portion of the credit has to go to third baseman Alec Bohm, who is out to a scorching-hot start at the plate.
The lanky corner infielder has taken 104 trips to the plate this year over 26 games and has a batting line of .333/.423/.556. That translates to a wRC+ of 170, indicating he’s been 70% better than the league average hitter so far this year. Among qualified hitters, that makes him the 12th best in the majors so far on the young season.
He probably can’t stay quite this hot over a longer stretch of time. His .386 batting average on balls in play this year is well above his career rate of .324 as well as the .290 league average. Since his exit velocity numbers are pretty similar to previous seasons, the BABIP will likely regress a bit going forward. However, he’s also made some gains in the plate discipline department that could perhaps be more sustainable, as they fit a pattern of growth that goes back a few years.
Bohm went through three minor league levels as a prospect in 2019, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A. He walked in 10.6% of his plate appearances and only struck out 13.5% of the time. Prospect evaluators had praised his eye at the plate and those numbers tracked with that. He hit .305/.378/.518 that year across those minor league levels for a 161 wRC+.
In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bohm shot onto the scene with a huge major league debut. He hit .338/.400/.481 for a 138 wRC+. His 20% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate weren’t quite as strong as in the minors the year prior, but that was fairly logical for a guy skipping Triple-A and getting to the big leagues for the first time.
But it seems the league adjusted the next year, as Bohm endured an awful sophomore slump in 2021. He took 417 trips to the plate that year and was punched out in 26.6% of them. His walk rate also fell to 7.4%. He only hit seven home runs on the year, leading to a paltry line of .247/.305/.342 and a 77 wRC+. He was optioned to the minors for a time, spending just over a month on the farm from late August to late September.
Since that awful season, however, Bohm has been gradually climbing in terms of his results and approach at the plate . In 2022, his walk rate dropped to 4.9% but he only struck out at a 17.4% clip, almost a ten-point drop from the prior season. His .280/.315/.398 batting line wasn’t amazing, leading to a 98 wRC+, but it was still progress relative to the prior year.
Last season, he continued down that path by dropping his strikeout rate even further to 15.4%, with his walk rate ticking up slightly to 6.9%. He also set a new career high with 20 home runs, leading to a .274/.327/.437 slash and 105 wRC+.
As mentioned up top, Bohm has a huge slash line this year, which is at least partly fueled by his strong BABIP. But he’s also drawn walks at a massive 13.5% clip, almost double where he was at last year. He’s swinging at just 27.8% of pitches outside the zone so far this year, whereas he chased at a 33.4% rate in prior seasons. Even when he does chase, his 79% contact rate on pitches outside the zone is far higher than the 71.2% rate he had coming into the year. On pitches in the zone, he’s making contact at a 93.6% rate, compared to his 86.7% rate coming into the year.
Looking at his swinging-strike rate, there is a direct downward trend from his sophomore slump year in 2021 to the present. It was 11.7% that year but dropped to 9.6% the year after, followed by 7.8% last year. He’s down to just 5.1% this year. Going forward, BABIP results will sway with luck as they often do. But the fact that he swings and misses less as time goes on suggests that he has been maturing in the areas he can control.
What’s also encouraging is that he’s been doing damage against both lefties and righties this year, whereas he had seemed to be leaning towards a short-side platoon role in previous years. He currently has a career 143 wRC+ against southpaws but just an 87 otherwise. As recently as last year, those figures were 142 against lefties and 92 against righties. So far this season, he’s at 205 and 149, still a big split but well above average regardless of who he has faced.
Defense is also important for Bohm, as he’s never been considered an especially strong third baseman, nor one who was destined to stay there for a long time. Going into 2020, the Baseball America scouting report on Bohm contained this passage: “Kris Bryant and Troy Glaus are the only players 6-foot-5 or taller to play more than 200 games at third base in MLB history. Bohm is unlikely to become the third.”
Well, Bohm has already gone past that 200-game threshold, having already played 388 contests at the hot corner. The results have not been great, however, as he has career tallies of -49 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average.
Last year, the Phillies started playing Bohm at first base more with Rhys Hoskins injured, but Bryce Harper eventually took it over. Though Harper was previously an outfielder, he returned from Tommy John surgery as a designated hitter and then eventually moved into first base due to the lesser throwing demands at that position.
After the 2023 season, it was announced that Harper would stay at first base going forward and would not be returning to the outfield. Since Kyle Schwarber is effectively a full-time designated hitter now, Bohm is locked in at third.
It’s possible to see some evolution in his glovework at third as well, depending on which metric you trust. DRS has continued to be extremely pessimistic, with Bohm at -10 or worse in each of the previous three campaigns. He’s already at -3 DRS so far this year, not even a month into the season. But OAA is bit more hopeful, since Bohm bottomed out by that metric with a -9 in 2022, before getting to +1 last year. Though that was in a smaller sample size since he spent roughly half his time at first base, where OAA gave him a -6 on the year. He’s still at an even zero at third base so far in the early parts of 2024, meaning OAA considers him roughly average at the hot corner going back to the start of last year. Even if one buys into that more optimistic view, Bohm will likely have to move off third at some point.
Schwarber is a free agent after 2025, which could perhaps allow Bohm to share first base and designated hitter with Harper. On the other hand, Nick Castellanos is under contract through 2026 and is also considered a weak defender, so perhaps he becomes the DH when Schwarber’s contract is up. The club has had past interest in trading Castellanos and he’s currently hitting .177/.233/.198, so there’s definitely a chance he’s no longer with the team by 2026 (whether due to a trade or release).
Bohm is controlled via arbitration through the 2026 season and could perhaps be extended beyond that point if the club really believes in his bat. But it’s not a perfect roster fit even after Schwarber and Castellanos are gone. Harper’s contract goes all the way through 2031, and it seems he’ll stay a first baseman and designated hitter for the rest of his career. Having Harper and Bohm locked in at those two spots isn’t ideal roster construction, as clubs often like to have at least some ability to rotate their regular players through the DH spot for a bit of rest.
For now, Bohm will stick at third and the club will likely be happy to live with his defense as long as he’s good in the batter’s box. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said as much a few years ago. “His key is he has to hit. If he hits well enough, you’ll live with the defensive aspect of it,” said Dombrowski after Bohm’s rough 2021 campaign. With Bohm’s results so far this year, he’s making things easy on Dombrowski and the Phils, and will continue to do so if he can keep it up.
I’ve definitely been impressed with Bohm. He’s made serious strides. He also seems like a team oriented player who hustles and isn’t afraid to get his uniform dirty.
He’s always looked like a ballplayer to me. (From afar, only catching him when my team plays the Phils or in playoffs.)
I too have noticed Alec Both playing the game of baseball (not up close, observing him only when he plays the Mets or when I’m watching him play a baseball game)
I understand the need/point of these articles. However, I think they are disingenuous. They focus on the player like there was a change.
The first article should be a look at production across the board after the pitch clock. Then you run articles about peoples performances before and after when it’s a notable difference.
Bohm has benefitted from the pitch clock? Maybe marsh has to an extent?
I think having Kevin Long for a hitting coach at least partially explains the improvements of Bohm, Marsh, and others.
@don but does it? Does kevin long have a track record of that? Maybe it’s rushed pitches being more hittable? Maybe it’s the quality of hitters around them?
When the league makes big changes, and player stats change I would attribute it to the league changes first until I’m convince otherwise.
Especially with the shift
Both players before the pitch clock weren’t great against same handed pitches then the pitch clock happened and they became passable?
How do you differentiate between player growth and league adjustments?
Let in 49 runs with the glove, drive in 100 runs with the bat; Dave D is on to something. Can always replace him late in the game when you have a lead.
A couple good reads today with the Naylor article as well. Good stuff
Take it from those of us who watch him on a nightly basis: the dude works really hard at his craft on both sides of the ball, has an excellent approach at the plate and doesn’t strike out. Especially with runners on base. He hasn’t even fully grown into his power yet.
My 3B!
That 2020 BA scouting report was a great find. I really enjoyed this post Darragh.
It’s going to be interesting once Aiden Miller gets to the majors. Has Bohm played his way as a trade chip if Miller can play?
The “metric I trust” is my eyeballs, which tell me he is considerably improved at third over the past year. He has excellent range, has improved his throwing mechanics and is playing confidently, which is not some a computer can tell you. Perhaps the writers on this site would be well-served by getting out from behind the numbers and actually watching players/teams they don’t typically (the Phillies don’t generate many clicks on this site) as well as tapping into their fanbase sentiment to get an on-the-ground feel for how a player is playing. For example, Bohm is much better at third now than he is at first. If the writer had watched either of the two games in which he started there last week when Harper was on paternity leave, he would have seen how uncomfortable he was there. But, I’m guessing the writer did not do that.
Not sure that you can really tell if Bohm is capable of playing 1B off the occasional appearance. There is an adjustment to shifting across the diamond, and seeing the ball differently. If Bohm were playing the position more consistently, he would be more consistent in the field. That said, he’s fine for now at third.
So is he a trade candidate or something? Or a plug funded by his agent? There is no transaction news or rumor here. It’s just some stats regurgitated from publicly available sites which will do the player/agent a solid by saying “hey, he is good and this should get him an extension or more arb money.”
Just like the recent infusion of ad posts here, a shameless attempt to get dough. And yet another weak attempt by MLBTR to be like Fangraphs.
Stay in your line: you’re a transactions site, not a stats site. There is nothing novel about this article: “ohhhh so-and-so is good, here are some stats I found that anyone would see if they check is page on Statcast.”
And it’s not even remotely comprehensive at only like 8 paragraphs. Stop this nonsense.