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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves won the National League East for the third straight year in 2020, but they fell to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers in the LCS. Atlanta is now at risk of losing some important contributors to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Braves have managed to pull off highly successful position players signings in each of the previous two offseasons. Heading into 2019, they added third baseman Josh Donaldson on a one-year, $23MM contract. The former MVP proceeded to rebound as a Brave, but they let him go last winter in lieu of giving him a longer deal. To replace Donaldson’s punch in their lineup, the Braves took the one-year route again when they inked outfielder Marcell Ozuna for $18MM. Like the Donaldson signing, the Ozuna pact couldn’t have gone much better for Atlanta. An above-average hitter throughout his career, the 29-year-old Ozuna found another gear in 2020 with an all-world .338/.431/.636 line and an NL-leading 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances.

While the Braves have benefited greatly from Ozuna, it’s possible his time in their uniform is up. The club has to decide in the coming weeks how far they’re willing to go to re-sign Ozuna, who MLBTR predicts will land a four-year, $72MM payday in free agency. General manager Alex Anthopoulos couldn’t issue Ozuna a qualifying offer after the Cardinals gave him one last year, so he may end up walking for nothing. Naturally, Anthopoulos has said he’d like to retain Ozuna. However, he didn’t make it sound like a slam dunk, and Anthopoulos also pointed out that it would be nice to have clarity on a potential 2021 DH. Ozuna spent most of his season there, lining up in the outfield 21 times.

In the event Ozuna leaves, the Braves will have several possible paths they could take to try to replace him. George Springer is the best outfielder in free agency, but the Braves could instead opt for another short-term play with someone like Michael Brantley or Joc Pederson if they want a proven hitter capable of playing left field to replace Ozuna.

Alternatively, the Braves could re-sign Nick Markakis — though that seems doubtful after his rough year — and/or simply stick with their in-house options as they wait for prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to take on major league roles. They do have several options with Ronald Acuna Jr., Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Ender Inciarte, Abraham Almonte and Johan Camargo on hand. The problem is that Acuna is the only player there who’s truly capable of striking fear into teams. In an ideal world, the Braves will be able to shed Inciarte’s $9.025MM in a trade, but that will be a challenge . Inciarte endured a terrible 2020, which will make teams even less likely to take on his money in today’s economic climate. The Braves would likely need to pay down a notable portion of the deal or take another bad contract back in return.

Moving elsewhere in the Braves’ lineup, the team has serious questions at third base. Riley is their main option there, but he had a disappointing year. So did Camargo, who now looks like a potential non-tender candidate. If the Braves are dissatisfied with them, they won’t be able to find much on the market after Justin Turner. He could make sense as another of Anthopoulos’ one- or two-year signings, though it remains to be seen whether he’d leave Los Angeles.

Another name to watch could be Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, a prime trade candidate in whom the Braves have shown interest in the past. Bryant had a poor year in 2020 and will come with a salary in the $19MM range, meaning his value is depressed. That could give the Braves an opportunity to strike for a reasonable cost and hope the former MVP can regain his usual form in his final year of team control. He’d fit the Anthopoulos mold of a high-upside, one-year commitment to a star-caliber player.

The Braves are also going to have to address their pitching staff to some extent. They received brutal injury blows this year with Mike Soroka blowing out his Achilles tendon and Cole Hamels dealing with persistent arm issues. Hamels, whom the Braves signed to a one-year, $18MM contract last offseason, was a bust due to those injuries and should be expected to land elsewhere in free agency. Soroka will be back to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson, though, which will give the Braves an elite-looking trio at the helm of their rotation. That means they don’t necessarily have to shop at the absolute top of the market for Trevor Bauer, but it’s worth noting they don’t have any established hurlers behind Soroka, Fried and Anderson.

With the Braves likely to add at least one starter, Anthopoulos could look to reunite with one of the other top names available, Marcus Stroman. There’s a clear connection between the two, as Anthopoulos was the Blue Jays’ GM when they drafted Stroman in 2012. Less expensive possibilities in free agency could include ex-Brave Charlie Morton (who wants to stay on the East Coast), Adam Wainwright (whom the Braves have already contacted), Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, J.A. Happ, Jose Quintana, James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Taijuan Walker and Atlanta resident Jon Lester, among others. The Rangers’ Lance Lynn should be popular in trade talks, as he’s due an ultra-affordable $8MM in 2021 and may appeal to Atlanta as another one-year fit.

As is the case with their rotation, the Braves’ bullpen will undergo changes in the coming months. There has already been one significant development with the team’s choice to decline its $3.5MM option over Darren O’Day. The move saved the Braves $3MM, but it still came as a surprise to see them part with O’Day in the wake of an outstanding season. He’s now a free agent along with Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Josh Tomlin, who joined O’Day in providing effective production in 2020.

While Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, Chris Martin and A.J. Minter will again be in the fold next season, the Braves will have to replace at least some of their departing relievers. There won’t be any shortage of options on the market, which is led by Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal and Blake Treinen. Alex Colome, Greg Holland, Kirby Yates and Jake McGee are also among those looking for work.

Along with handling outside business, it’s possible the Braves will attempt to extend superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman before next season. The franchise icon and career-long Brave is coming off his best season yet, one that should earn him NL MVP honors, and will enter a contract year in 2021. Freeman has said he’d like to remain a Brave (the feeling is surely mutual), though it’ll be costly for the club to keep him. The 31-year-old wouldn’t be out of line asking for a comparable extension to the five-year, $130MM guarantee the Cardinals gave first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in 2019. Of course, that was before the pandemic hit and damaged the game’s economy.

Locking up Freeman could certainly be on the Braves’ to-do list. He’ll be back in 2021 regardless, though, and it’s clear Anthopoulos has other work to do this offseason if he’s going to build a fourth straight division winner and a World Series-caliber roster.

Braves Interested In Adam Wainwright

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Longtime Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright hopes to remain in St. Louis, but he’s keeping his options open as he nears a trip to free agency. That could mean returning to his native Georgia, as the Braves have interest in Wainwright and have already contacted him, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports.

This could be a full-circle move for Wainwright, who began his career with the Atlanta organization, even playing under current Braves manager Brian Snitker in Double-A ball. Wainwright never appeared in the majors for the Braves, though, as they traded him to the Cardinals in 2003 in a deal that sent outfielder J.D. Drew to Atlanta.

For St. Louis, the Wainwright acquisition couldn’t have worked out better. Now 39 years old, Wainwright’s a three-time All-Star, a World Series winner and a Cardinals icon who has provided the club 2,169 1/3 innings of 3.38 ERA/3.41 FIP pitching. He’s also third all-time for the team in wins with 167, trailing only Bob Gibson and Jesse Haines. And Wainwright showed this past season that he still has plenty to offer, as he amassed 65 2/3 frames of 3.15 ERA/4.11 FIP ball with 7.4 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9.

The type of production Wainwright put forth in 2020 would be welcome for the Braves, whose rotation dealt with its share of adversity. Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels, whom they were counting on to play major roles, each missed almost the entire season because of injuries; Mike Foltynewicz ended up on the outs; and several other options logged awful numbers over multiple starts.

Going forward, the good news for the Braves is that their rotation doesn’t appear to need a ton of help. While Hamels is a free agent, Soroka’s coming back to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson atop the Braves’ staff. That trio provides the team with an excellent top end of the rotation, and adding someone like Wainwright would give the Braves a more-than-capable No. 4 and a well-respected veteran who would be able to mentor their younger starters.

Braves Sign Abraham Almonte To Major League Deal

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The Braves announced they’ve signed outfielder Abraham Almonte to a non-guaranteed major league contract. Additionally, pitchers Mike Soroka, Jeremy Walker and Phil Pfeifer have been reinstated from the 60-day injured list, while utilityman Charlie Culberson cleared outright waivers and elected free agency.

Almonte will make $990K if he makes the team, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The 31-year-old only has only amassed 51 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’s evidently done enough to catch the attention of the Atlanta front office. The switch-hitter mashed in Triple-A (albeit in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League) in 2019 and is capable of playing all three outfield positions. He has a .237/.298/.370 line over parts of parts of eight big league seasons.

Culberson emerged as a fan favorite in Atlanta over the past few years, but he was limited to just seven plate appearances in 2020. The 31-year-old is likely looking at a minor-league pact this offseason.

Braves Decline Darren O’Day’s Option

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The Braves have turned down right-handed reliever Darren O’Day’s $3.5MM club option for 2021 in favor of a $500K buyout, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. O’Day is now the second notable reliever to have a team decline his option today, joining the Indians’ Brad Hand, who could earn $10MM in 2021 if another club acquires him.

While O’Day isn’t as noteworthy or expensive as Hand, it’s nonetheless surprising to see the Braves give him up. With the league coming off a pandemic-shortened season sans fans, though, these moves could be a sign of negative things to come for the players this winter. It seems relievers will face some economic adversity in free agency, but it’s possible the open market will prove to be disappointing for most or all players, regardless of position.

No matter how free agency does shake out across the league, O’Day currently looks like one of the most accomplished relievers on the open market. Despite averaging around 86 mph on his fastball throughout his career, O’Day has been highly effective with a handful of teams since he debuted in 2008. The longtime Oriole owns a 2.51 ERA/3.43 FIP with 9.36 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9 in 576 2/3 innings in the majors.

The Braves acquired O’Day from the O’s in the 2018 season, but his year had already ended on account of a hamstring issue. Anthony injury, this time to his forearm, kept O’Day out until September of last season, but he was able to end on a positive note with five strong innings. The Braves then re-signed O’Day to a guaranteed $2.5MM last winter, and he went on to deliver in 2020 with 16 1/3 innings of eight-hit, three-run ball, also notching 22 strikeouts against five walks. But that excellent performance was not enough to convince the Braves to keep O’Day around for what looked like a reasonable sum.

Tigers Interview Dave Clark, Sal Fasano, Mark Kotsay

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TODAY: The Tigers have another internal candidate in first base coach Dave Clark, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports (via Twitter) that Clark interviewed for the manager’s job last month.

OCTOBER 26, 5:44pm: Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay has also interviewed for the job in Detroit, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

5:32pm: The Tigers have discussed their managerial vacancy with Braves catching instructor Sal Fasano, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets.

Now 49 years old, Fasano played for an array of teams during a major league career that spanned from 1996-2008. He finished his playing career as a .221/.275/.392 hitter before moving into the coaching ranks. Prior to joining the Braves’ staff, Fasano garnered managerial experience at multiple levels in the minors with the Blue Jays and Angels organizations. He earned Manager of the Year honors with the Jays’ Double-A affiliate in 2011.

Now, Fasano is among a slew of candidates who could succeed the retired Ron Gardenhire in Detroit. MLBTR’s 2021 Managerial Search Tracker has the complete list of names.

MLBTR Poll: Marcell Ozuna’s Next Contract

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Outfielder Marcell Ozuna just wrapped up a dream season as a member of the Braves, with whom he slashed .338/.431/.606 and totaled a National League-leading 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances. The Braves couldn’t have expected better than that when they signed Ozuna, a former Marlin and Cardinal, to a one-year, $18MM contract last January. Unfortunately for Atlanta, though, it could lose Ozuna in the coming weeks.

While Ozuna didn’t make out as hoped in free agency an offseason ago, this winter could be a different story. With the offseason looming, Ozuna stands out as one of the absolute best hitters who could become available soon. He also won’t be dealing with a qualifying offer, which helped weigh down his market a year ago. The main issue is whether the universal designated hitter will stick around, as that could impact how many NL teams pursue Ozuna on the open market. While Ozuna has spent his entire career in the NL, the Braves mostly deployed him as a DH in 2020.

Regardless of his defensive questions, Ozuna should have a lot of offense-needy teams after him in the offseason. Along with his bottom-line production, which has consistently been better than average, Ozuna is something of a Statcast favorite.The Braves have said they’d like to re-sign Ozuna, but whether it’s them or another team, how much do you think he’ll earn on his next contract?

(Poll link for app users)

Anthopoulos: Braves Hope To Re-Sign Ozuna

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For a second straight season, the Braves struck gold on a one-year deal for a middle-of-the-order threat. Atlanta’s 2019 deal with Josh Donaldson proved to be a masterstroke, and although the front office was panned for letting the “Bringer of Rain” walk, GM Alex Anthopoulos’ one-year deal for slugger Marcell Ozuna proved similarly fruitful. The former Marlins and Cardinals slugger delivered a superlative .338/.431/.636 slash and 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances, tacking on three postseason big flies.

The Braves now face a similar dilemma with Ozuna, who’ll draw interest on multi-year deals as one of the best bats in free agency. Unlike Donaldson, Ozuna is ineligible for a qualifying offer, having rejected one last winter. That not only bolsters his free-agent stock but also puts the Braves at risk of receiving no compensation if he departs. In speaking with reporters following the Braves’ NLCS exit, Anthopoulos made clear that re-signing Ozuna is a priority but also spoke with some caution (links via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Mark Bowman of MLB.com).

“Marcell was amazing for us,” said Anthopoulos. “He was awesome. We’d love to have him back. I certainly plan on having discussions. … We’re going to have to work hard to get as many answers as we can from a revenue standpoint, a DH standpoint, all of those things.”

Anthopoulos sidestepped questions about team budget, noting that he had yet to discuss payroll with ownership and adding, understandably for competitive purposes, that he wouldn’t divulge the result of those talks even if they’d taken place. The GM pointed to uncertainties about 2021 revenue and whether they’ll play a full slate of games with fans in attendance next year as additional factors in determining club payroll, re-signing free agents and exploring other offseason moves.

As for Ozuna himself, the soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger took to social media to offer kind words and gratitude toward the Braves organization, his teammates and the Atlanta fanbase.

“I made the right decision to come play for the Braves,” Ozuna wrote on Instagram. “My time in Atlanta this year brought me so much joy and I will remember this season ALWAYS. None of us know what the future holds, but I know the future is BIG and BRIGHT. Thank you all.”

Specifics of Ozuna’s goals in free agency can’t be known, but his decision to bet on himself last winter could scarcely have gone better. Ozuna reportedly turned down a three-year offer to sign with the Reds, instead opting for a larger one-year salary and the opportunity to return to free agency this winter.

The Braves provided that opportunity, likely due to the upside Ozuna showed in a huge 2017 campaign with the Marlins and his top-of-the-scale ratings in various Statcast measures of interest. In 2019, Ozuna ranked in the 85th percentile or better in terms of barrel rate (85th), average exit velocity (91st), hard-hit rate (96th), expected batting average (89th), expected slugging percentage (90th) and expecte weighted on-base average (91st).

Impressive as that batted-ball profile was, Ozuna’s actual results on the field were relatively pedestrian (.241/.328/.478). That output, combined with defensive questions and the draft-pick compensation attached to his name after rejecting a qualifying offer, tempered interest in Ozuna. That almost certainly won’t be the case this winter, as Ozuna not only delivered elite results at the plate but somehow managed to improve in each of those batted-ball metrics, suggesting that his Herculean season is sustainable.

As Anthopoulos alluded to, teams are still uncertain whether there will be a permanent designated hitter in the National League. That’s critical with regard to Ozuna, who is limited to left field and experienced considerable throwing issues during his time with the Cardinals due to prior shoulder troubles. The Braves utilized Ozuna as their primary DH in 2020 and would surely prefer to do so moving forward.

There’s a widely held belief throughout the industry that even if the NL DH is stricken from the rulebook in 2021, it will be implemented as part of the 2021 collective bargaining talks. As such, the Braves or any other NL club might be willing to bet on using Ozuna in left field for a year and then moving him to DH in 2022 and beyond, but some certainty on that front would surely help his market.

Focusing on the Braves specifically, it’s hard to know whether they’ll buck recent trends under the Anthopoulos regime and take this type of financial plunge. Anthopoulos has eschewed long-term deals for the most part, going beyond two years in just one instance: last year’s three-year, $40MM deal for lefty Will Smith. Outside of that, he’s taken a conservative approach in free agency — even as it comes to big-name targets.

There was ample pressure from fans to bring Craig Kimbrel back on a multi-year deal when his market stalled out, but the Braves opted against it. The same was true of Dallas Keuchel, but the Braves held out until Keuchel could be had on a midseason, one-year deal. Donaldson, Ozuna and Cole Hamels represent other big-name, high-priced one-year deals. Since Anthopoulos took the reins, the Braves haven’t done beyond Smith’s $13.33MM annual salary on a multi-year deal for any free agent.

Signing Ozuna this winter would necessitate a departure from that stance. While no one can be certain how this year’s market will shake out thanks to those revenue losses, the expectation is that the top stars will still be paid. Ozuna should seemingly command at least a four-year deal — possibly a five-year pact — at a base rate in line with or more likely exceeding his current $18MM salary.

There’s certainly space on the payroll to make that plunge, thanks in no small part to overwhelmingly team-friendly deals for Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. That said, this decision will not only come against the backdrop of revenue losses but also the need to hammer out an extension for franchise icon Freddie Freeman, whose eight-year deal expires at the conclusion of the 2021 season. Add in what should be a competitive market for Ozuna’s services, and a reunion is far from a sure thing. The outcome can’t be known at this point, but Ozuna’s situation already has plenty of parallels with last year’s Donaldson saga.

MLBTR Poll: Braves Or Dodgers?

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The National League pennant will be decided tonight. The Braves and Dodgers will kick off NLCS Game 7 in a few hours. The winner will take on the Rays next week in the World Series.

The Dodgers were the league’s most imposing offense in the regular season. Los Angeles has continued to mash in the postseason, averaging nearly six runs per game in the NLCS, thanks largely to Corey Seager’s recent home run barrage. Overall, L.A. has a 35-30 run differential edge for the series.

Atlanta’s lineup doesn’t have the depth of the Dodgers’ but the Braves obviously have ample high-end talent. Atlanta also has the more stable pitching outlook for Game 7. While the Dodgers will open with Dustin May, presumably to kick off a full-on bullpen game, Atlanta will hand the ball over to Game 2 starter Ian Anderson.

The 22-year-old Anderson has just six career regular season appearances under his belt, but he’s been downright stellar. The former third overall pick put up a 1.95 ERA over 32.1 innings as a rookie. Anderson punched out an impressive 29.7% of opposing hitters during the regular season while racking up grounders on over half the balls in play against him. The changeup artist also hasn’t been scored upon in 15.2 playoff innings.

The MLBTR readership was almost evenly split as to who would emerge victorious at the beginning of the series. (For what it’s worth, the Braves have since lost left fielder Adam Duvall to an oblique injury, unexpectedly forcing Cristian Pache into everyday duty). Predicting individual baseball games can be something of a fool’s errand, but we’ll turn it over to the readers nonetheless. Who will be celebrating a league championship tonight?

(poll link for app users).

Braves To Start A.J. Minter In Game 5 Of NLCS

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With a chance to eliminate the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS on Friday and advance to the World Series for the first time since 1999, the Braves will turn to left-handed reliever A.J. Minter as their starter, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. He’ll square off against the Dodgers’ Dustin May.

This figures to be a short outing for Minter, who threw 21 2/3 frames in 22 regular-season appearances and recorded more than three outs on only a couple of occasions. The 27-year-old Minter made his appearances count, though, as he logged a meager 0.83 ERA/2.82 FIP with 9.97 K/9, 3.74 BB/9 and a 49.0 percent groundball rate. He’s a key member of a bullpen that finished 2020 with the majors’ fourth-best ERA (3.50), and that unit’s likely to be busy Friday.

Despite questions in a rotation that’s missing Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels because of injuries, the Braves have stormed to a 3-1 lead against the favored Dodgers. Most of the games in the series haven’t been close to this point, including a Thursday matchup in which the Braves and starter Bryse Wilson posted a dominant 10-2 victory.

Braves’ Bryse Wilson To Start Game 4 Of NLCS

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The Braves will start right-hander Bryse Wilson in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Dodgers, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. He’s likely to go up against Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw. In the meantime, it will be Kyle Wright for the Braves against Julio Urias of the Dodgers on Wednesday as Atlanta tries to take a 3-0 lead in the series.

If the Braves win Game 3, Wilson have a chance to close out the series against the legendary Kershaw and the Dodgers in what will be his playoff debut. A fourth-round pick in 2016 and a former top 100 prospect, Wilson has seen action with the Braves in each season since 2018. The 22-year-old has had difficulty in the majors, though, having posted a 5.91 ERA/5.42 FIP with 7.8 K/9 and 5.27 BB/9 in 42 2/3 innings.

Wilson has made 15 appearances in his MLB career, and he has lasted more than five innings just once. That suggests the Braves will have to heavily rely on their bullpen Thursday.

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