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A.J. Minter

A.J. Minter To Undergo Season-Ending Lat Surgery

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A.J. Minter has been lost for the season, as manager Carlos Mendoza tells reporters (including Mike Puma of The New York Post) that the southpaw will undergo surgery to repair a torn lat next Monday. The Mets revealed last week that surgery was under consideration. Minter understandably attempted to exhaust other options over the past few days, but he unfortunately won’t be able to avoid going under the knife.

Mendoza also provided an update on designated hitter Jesse Winker, who landed on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain this evening. Winker was diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain — one of moderate severity — and will be down for six-to-eight weeks (via Abbey Mastracco of The New York Daily News).

It’s the second consecutive injury-shortened season for Minter. The veteran reliever underwent surgery to address a left hip issue last August, ending his final year as a member of the Braves. He reached free agency for the first time over the winter. New York signed him to a surprisingly strong two-year, $22MM contract that included an opt-out after the first season. They gambled that Minter would return to form as an above-average setup man after a healthy offseason.

The early returns were encouraging. Minter couldn’t have performed much better over his first 13 outings. He allowed only two runs on six hits and five walks through 11 innings. Minter fanned 15 and recorded seven holds without surrendering a lead. He was Mendoza’s most trusted option from the left side.

Minter has been an excellent reliever throughout his career. He combined for a 3.28 ERA while striking out more than 29% of opposing hitters over parts of eight seasons with Atlanta. Minter had topped 50 innings each season between 2021-23 before dealing with significant injuries over the past two years.

New York had relied on Minter and Danny Young as their only left-handers through the first month. Both pitchers are now done for the year, as Young required Tommy John surgery over the weekend. The Mets selected the hard-throwing but erratic Génesis Cabrera to give Mendoza at least one southpaw in the bullpen. Cabrera is miscast as the top lefty on a contender, making that an area the Mets are sure to monitor over the coming weeks.

Minter is making $11MM this season. He’ll surely exercise the matching player option and hope for a healthier second year in Queens. He’s already on the 60-day injured list, as New York transferred him over when they selected Cabrera’s contract last week.

Winker may eventually end up there as well, as he’s expected to miss close to two months after tweaking his oblique in yesterday’s loss to St. Louis. He suffered the injury on a throw in a rare outfield appearance. Winker has been the Mets designated hitter against right-handed pitching. That may now fall to Brett Baty, who was recalled in the corresponding move for his IL placement. Baty was optioned a few weeks ago when Jeff McNeil returned from the IL, limiting his path to playing time at second base. Baty had just a .204/.246/.352 line over 58 plate appearances before his demotion. He’d been ice cold to begin the season but had begun to swing the bat well just before McNeil’s activation.

Mets Select Genesis Cabrera, Ty Adcock

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10:30am: The Mets announced that Minter and right-hander Frankie Montas have been transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL, which opens a pair of 40-man spots for Cabrera and Adcock. Montas, like Minter, is dealing with a lat strain. His occurred during spring training, however, and the team’s hope is that he can be ready to join the rotation early this summer. He’s already spent 35 days on the IL, however, and the move to the 60-day list does not reset that clock.

9:20am: The Mets announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contracts of left-handed reliever Genesis Cabrera and right-handed reliever Ty Adcock. Lefty Brandon Waddell and righty Chris Devenski were optioned to Triple-A Syracuse to clear spots on the active roster. The Mets haven’t announced corresponding 40-man moves yet but noted in their announcement that those transactions will be revealed later today. A.J. Minter and Danny Young are both facing lengthy injury absences, so they may be moved to the 60-day injured list to open those 40-man spots. Devenski has presumably agreed to be optioned since he has at least five years of major league service time. Such players can’t be optioned to the minors without their consent.

The southpaw contingent of the Mets’ bullpen has been wiped out in a span of a few days. Up until recently, they had both Minter and Young available. Minter had a 1.64 earned run average through his first 13 appearances. Young’s 4.32 ERA through 10 outings was less impressive but he had a huge 35.1% strikeout rate and 63.2% ground ball rate, as well as a solid 8.1% walk rate. His .450 batting average on balls in play and 61.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side, which is why his 1.40 FIP and 1.75 SIERA pointed to better results going forward.

That meant manager Carlos Mendoza had a couple of strong options from the left side but that has quickly changed. Minter landed on the 15-day IL on the weekend due to a lat strain and season-ending surgery is a possibility. Young hit the 15-day IL yesterday due to an elbow sprain and he may require Tommy John surgery. So not only are the Mets going to be without Minter and Young in the short term, but maybe for the entire season.

That is surely what has brought Cabrera up to the big leagues today. The 28-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Mets in the offseason and has been pitching for their Triple-A club. He has tossed eight innings over seven appearances for Syracuse. The 7.88 ERA in that time isn’t pretty but it’s a small sample and with a miniscule 34.9% strand rate. He has struck out 35.3% of batters faced and kept balls in play on the ground at a 50% clip, though also with a 14.7% walk rate.

Lack of control is the main knock on Cabrera. He has 275 2/3 innings of major league experience with the Cardinals and Blue Jays, having walked 11.4% of batters faced in that time. He’s been able to work around that at times with strikeouts, though he’s been inconsistent in that regard.

He had a 26% strikeout rate with the Cards in 2021, allowing him to post a 3.73 ERA. But he only punched out 16% of batters in 2022, which helped bump his ERA to 4.63. He corrected a bit in 2023 with a 24.3% strikeout rate and 4.04 ERA. It was a mixed bag last year, as his ERA dropped to 3.59 but mostly via luck. His 18.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk were both subpar figures, but he had a 78.8% strand rate. His 5.13 FIP and 4.58 SIERA both point to the ERA being a mirage.

The Jays seemingly didn’t have faith in him keeping runs off the board at that pace. They could have retained him via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a modest $2.5MM salary for this year, but they cut him from the roster instead. That is what led to him landing with the Mets on a minor league deal. The injuries have created a path for him to get back to the majors. He will provide the Mets with one lefty reliever for now and the club will see which version of Cabrera they get.

The club also just needs arms generally, regardless of handedness. They are in the middle of a span where they play 13 straight games. Waddell and Devenski were just called up and combined to cover 6 1/3 innings in yesterday’s game, the former logging 4 1/3 and the latter going for two frames.

They have been swapped out for both Cabrera and Adcock. The 28-year-old Adcock has a fairly limited major league track record, with 20 innings tossed between the 2023 Mariners and 2024 Mets. He has a 5.85 ERA in that time. He has a much better 1.29 ERA in seven innings for Syracuse so far in 2025. That’s obviously a small sample but he has six strikeouts to just one walk.

His overall minor league track record isn’t huge either. The canceled 2020 season and Tommy John surgery in 2021 both put a dent in his ability to get work in. He only has 64 1/3 innings of official minor league work from 2022 to 2025, with a 3.92 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. He still has an option and can be sent back to Syracuse without being exposed to waivers if the Mets want to keep him on the 40-man as depth.

A.J. Minter Could Require Season-Ending Surgery

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The Mets placed lefty A.J. Minter on the 15-day injured list due to a left lat strain this weekend, but he’ll be out far longer than 15 days. Manager Carlos Mendoza tells the Mets beat that Minter’s injury is “pretty significant” and could require surgery (video link via SNY). A final decision on surgery hasn’t been made yet, as Minter is receiving a wave of additional opinions. However, if the lefty does go under the knife, Mendoza acknowledged that the procedure would end his 2025 campaign.

It’s a brutal development for Minter, who spent the offseason rehabbing hip surgery and has been outstanding in his first 11 innings as a Met. The longtime Braves lefty has allowed only two runs on six hits and five walks with 14 strikeouts so far in 2025. That’s good for a huge 31.8% strikeout rate, albeit against a bloated 11.4% walk rate. Minter has kept a strong 48% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground and turned in an above-average 12.4% swinging-strike rate.

Minter is one of four Mets relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA on the season (and three with a sub-2.00 mark). The Mets have seen closer Edwin Diaz struggle with command issues even as he’s gone 7-for-7 in save opportunities. Righty Ryne Stanek has also struggled with his command. The group of Reed Garrett, Jose Butto and Huascar Brazoban has been sharp thus far, but on the whole the Mets are lacking in established veterans to set up for Diaz.

More generally, the Mets are also light on lefties with Minter’s season now in jeopardy. Danny Young is the only currently healthy left-handed reliever in Mendoza’s bullpen (or on the 40-man roster). Brooks Raley just signed a one-year deal, but he’s still on the mend from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Genesis Cabrera is in Triple-A but is not on the 40-man roster and has not pitched well to begin the season.

Minter’s injury also comes with notable contractual ramifications for the Mets. A healthy version of Minter would surely have turned down the player option he faces at season’s end. He signed a two-year, $22MM deal over the winter even while recovering from hip surgery. If he’d been healthy and pitched anywhere close to his current level, he’d have been a lock to opt back into free agency.

If Minter undergoes season-ending surgery, he’d almost certainly decide to forgo that out opportunity in his contract. Even if he avoids surgery, it seems like he’ll be facing a monthslong absence, which significantly increases the chances of him exercising his $11MM player option. RosterResource already projects the Mets for $206MM of tax obligations in 2026, and that’s before factoring in player options (Minter, Frankie Montas, Pete Alonso), club options (Raley, Drew Smith) or arbitration raises (Francisco Alvarez, David Peterson and Tylor Megill, to name a few).

Mets Select Jose Urena

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The Mets announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Jose Urena. Urena will replace southpaw A.J. Minter on the roster as the southpaw heads to the 15-day injured list due to a left lat strain. Minter’s placement on the shelf is hardly a surprise, as he exited yesterday’s game with what was termed triceps soreness at the time. The Mets have a 40-man roster spot open, so no corresponding move was necessary.

Urena, 33, has pitched in the majors for parts of ten seasons but has struggled to post average results throughout most of his career. The righty debuted with the Marlins back in 2015 and spent the first two years of his career struggling badly in the majors in a swing role, though he converted to the rotation full-time in 2017 and had a solid two-season run as an effective back-end starter. From 2017 to 2018, Urena pitched to a league average 3.90 ERA despite a microscopic 16.9% strikeout rate, though his well-below average 4.68 FIP suggested regression was likely not far away. That came to pass during his final two seasons with the Marlins, where he posted a 5.25 ERA and 5.02 FIP in 108 frames before being designated for assignment shortly after the 2020 season concluded.

In the years following his departure from Miami, Urena was typically used as a back-end starter or swingman while bouncing around various clubs outside of the playoff picture. From 2021 to 2023, the right-hander pitched for the Tigers, Rockies, Brewers, and White Sox with a combined 5.61 ERA and 5.29 FIP in 242 1/3 innings of work. He struck out just 14.6% of his opponents while walking 9.8% during that time, leaving him with weak ratios that even a 50.2% groundball rate couldn’t make up for.

Lackluster as his performance in the majors had been over the years, however, Urena managed to turn things around in Texas last year. He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers during the 2023-24 offseason and managed to crack the club’s Opening Day roster as a long reliever. He joined the rotation for a brief stretch in May and June but mostly pitched out of the bullpen, and did multi-inning relief work with intriguing effectiveness. While he still punched out just 15.1% of his opponents, his 8.4% walk rate was a bit more palatable and he maintained his strong grounder rate while adding a tick of velocity to his fastball and managing to give up fewer homers. In all, he posted a 3.80 ERA with a 4.62 FIP in 109 innings, though his 2.92 ERA in 64 2/3 frames of relief work was more impressive than his 5.08 ERA in nine starts.

Despite the improvements in his performance, Urena’s shaky work in the rotation and lack of strikeouts limited him to minor league deals once again this winter, and he eventually landed with the Mets. The righty had the ability to opt-out of his deal with the club before Opening Day but instead opted to stick with the club and pitch at Triple-A until an opportunity arose in Queens. That patience has now paid off, and he’ll join the big league roster as a multi-inning relief option or potential sixth starter should one be necessary at some point.

As for Minter, the extent of his injury won’t be known until results of the imaging he’s expected to undergo today are announced. Regardless, the Mets are clearly confident he’ll be down for long enough to justify holding him out for at least the next 15 days. That leaves Danny Young as the only left-handed option in the Mets’ bullpen for the time being, though Genesis Cabrera and Anthony Gose are both available as non-roster depth options in the minor leagues.

A.J. Minter Exits With Triceps Soreness, IL Stint Likely

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Mets reliever A.J. Minter left tonight’s game against the Nationals partway through the eighth inning. After the game, manager Carlos Mendoza revealed that the left-hander exited due to soreness in his triceps. Mendoza told reporters (including Will Sammon of The Athletic) that Minter will go for imaging and that a stint on the injured list is likely.

Losing Minter for any amount of time would be a major loss for the Mets. When the southpaw signed a two-year, $22MM deal with the club this winter, some might have been surprised by the size of the contract he was able to secure. It tied him with Blake Treinen and Carlos Estévez for the third-largest contract of the offseason for a free agent reliever, and unlike Treinen’s and Estévez’s contracts, Minter’s came with an opt-out after year one. MLBTR was higher on Minter than almost any other source (we ranked him no. 34 on our Top 50 Free Agents list), and still, we only predicted he would ink a two-year, $16MM deal. Even Minter himself implied that he wasn’t exactly expecting the number he received, telling Anthony DiComo of MLB.com that he was originally planning to wait to sign until top free agent reliever Tanner Scott had set the market, but that the Mets made him an offer that was simply too good to refuse.

It’s not that Minter isn’t a talented reliever. From 2020-24, he pitched to a 2.85 ERA and 3.04 SIERA in 243 innings of work, striking out more than 30% of the batters he faced. However, he spent about half of the 2024 season on the injured list, including the final seven weeks of the season. It was a hip injury, not an arm injury, but even so, season-ending injuries are often bad news for impending free agents, especially pitchers on the wrong side of 30.

Yet, over the first four weeks of the 2025 campaign, Minter rewarded the Mets for their faith in him. His once-surprising contract quickly started to look like a bargain, and the chances of him opting out at the end of the season were growing every day. Through his first 12 games, Minter was sitting on a 1.69 ERA and a 2.69 SIERA. His strikeout and whiff rates were as impressive as ever, and his 48% groundball rate was his highest since 2020. He was a key cog in Mendoza’s bullpen, leading the team in eighth-inning appearances to help set things up for Edwin Díaz in the ninth. On Saturday, however, Minter only made it through nine pitches in the eighth, exiting in the middle of an inning for just the second time all year. It’s currently unclear how much time he’ll miss if he does indeed require an IL stint; presumably, the Mets will know more after he undergoes testing.

The Mets’ bullpen has played a critical role in their red-hot start to the season. The team is 19-8, although the offense has been surprisingly mediocre. Their starting pitching has been phenomenal (MLB-leading 2.28 ERA), but one reason their starters have been able to thrive is that they haven’t had to pitch deep into outings; Mets starters rank 18th in innings per game. That’s partly because Mendoza knows that when he pulls a great starter, he has a great crop of relievers to pick up where the starter left off. New York’s relief corps ranks third in MLB with a 2.46 ERA and second with a 3.28 Win Probability Added (per FanGraphs). Losing Minter would weaken a group that has been a huge strength early in the year. It would sting particularly badly against teams with tough left-handed batters in their lineups. Before he hurt his triceps, Minter was one of just two healthy left-handed relievers on the 40-man roster. The other, Danny Young, lacks Minter’s upside and his track record of big league success.

Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.

In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.

There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.

Onto this year’s group!

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining

Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)

Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)

Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)

Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.

Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)

Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)

Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining

Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.

Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining

Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.

Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining

Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.

A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining

Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.

Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining

Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining

The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.

Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)

Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.

Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)

Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining

It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.

Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining

Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.

NL Injury Notes: Smith, Gomber, Minter

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Will Smith has been dealing with a bone bruise in his left ankle for almost nine months, as the Dodgers catcher revealed to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters this weekend.  Smith hurt his ankle while sliding into second base to try and break up a double play in the Dodgers’ 11-3 win over the Yankees on June 8, and he has been dealing with some level of discomfort ever since, though Smith didn’t go on the injured list or even miss really any time in the aftermath of the injury.  The issue has persisted even after an offseason of rest, resulting in Smith being held out of Spring Training games until last Friday.

Smith said his ankle is only sore when he runs, and he is otherwise able to catch and hit normally.  As Ardaya notes, Smith’s post-injury numbers imply otherwise — Smith hit .292/.361/.498 in 238 plate appearances though June 8, and then only .213/.301/.382 in 306 PA afterwards, plus a .568 OPS over 65 more trips to the plate during the playoffs.  Los Angeles GM Brandon Gomes implied that the team might be more open to giving Smith extra off-days to keep him healthy and more well-rested in general for what the Dodgers hope is another deep postseason run.

This might not be the most prominent Will Smith-related news item to ever arise on an Oscar night, but let’s move onto some other notes from around the National League…

  • Austin Gomber was scratched from a scheduled start today due to some soreness in his throwing shoulder, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.  Testing revealed no structural damage, though Rockies manager Bud Black wasn’t sure when Gomber might be back on the mound.  While Gomber isn’t a high-velocity pitcher, his fastball was also down a tick during his first Spring Training start last week, so the matter didn’t solely arise today.  Gomber viewed the situation as “a reset” rather than anything too serious, saying “maybe I would have tried to push it a little bit more if we were in a different spot on the calendar.  But it being so early in the year, I just felt like I wanted to take a few days to try to get a touch better and not have something that’s like nagging throughout the year.”  The veteran southpaw has been part of Colorado’s rotation for the last four seasons, and he posted a 4.75 ERA in 165 innings in 2024.
  • A.J. Minter underwent season-ending hip surgery last August, and he hit a big checkpoint in his rehab process by throwing 20-25 pitches during a live batting practice session.  Minter told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters that he “felt good” in the aftermath, and figures he’ll have at least one more live BP session before taking part in a proper Spring Training game setting.  Despite Minter’s injury, his track record as a reliable bullpen arm led to plenty of interest on the free agent market, and he joined the Mets on a two-year, $22MM deal (with an opt-out after the first year).  His progress hints that he might be able to be part of New York’s roster on Opening Day, but “we’re going to be smart about this.  If I have to miss a few days or a couple weeks, my goal is to help this team at the end of the season.”

Mets Notes: Bregman, Nimmo, Minter

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Infielder Alex Bregman remains unsigned, with his market taking some turns recently. While returning to the Astros once seemed impossible, it now seems that door is open a crack. Other teams are still lurking but it doesn’t seem like the Mets will be jumping in. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that the Mets are no longer in the running.

The Mets were connected to Bregman earlier this winter but it always seemed like a somewhat less-than-perfect fit since the club has a lot of other options for the infield corners. First baseman Pete Alonso and the club have been in a bit of a staring contest for months and it’s still possible that he comes back to Queens. Even without Alonso, the Mets could have Mark Vientos as their regular first baseman and then have third base open for a competition between Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. Bregman is reportedly willing to move to second base but the Mets have Jeff McNeil there. McNeil can also play the outfield but the Mets have a somewhat crowded mix there.

Bregman is a more established big leaguer than any of the Mets young options but he wouldn’t come cheap. He reportedly has been unwilling to accept a six-year, $156MM offer from the Astros this winter, hoping to get something in the $200MM range. While the Mets might have had some interest in going with a more certain player like Bregman for the 2025 season, signing Bregman would be a larger commitment in terms of dollars and years. He’s about to turn 31 years old and the Baty/Acuña/Mauricio trio are all in the 22-26 range, so perhaps the Mets would rather dedicate their money elsewhere.

It also seems like Alonso is more likely to sign a short-term pact, having pitched a three-year deal to the Mets, while Bregman is still holding out hope for a long-term deal. Considering all those factors, it seems that a reunion with Alonso is probably more likely than pivoting to giving a big deal to Bregman.

Turning to players already on the roster, the club held Amazin’ Day recently, which allowed members of the media to get updates on certain players. Per two reports from Bill Ladson of MLB.com, both outfielder Brandon Nimmo and left-hander A.J. Minter are hoping to be ready before or around Opening Day.

Nimmo, the longtime Met, was playing through plantar fasciitis in his left foot during the latter parts of last year’s schedule. It’s possible that affected his performance, as he slashed .248/.361/.454 in the first half but just .190/.277/.319 in the second, followed by a tepid .220/.328/.280 performance in the postseason. He tells Ladson that he had an injection in his foot after the season and has ramped up to jogging, but has not yet started sprinting. He says he will probably miss some early spring training games but expects to be ready to go by Opening Day.

Getting a healthy season out of Nimmo hasn’t always been easy. Due to various injuries from 2016 to 2021, he only once topped 92 games and maxed out at 140. In 2022 and 2023, he finally showed what he could do with proper health. He got into at least 151 games in both of those campaigns and slashed a combined .274/.365/.450 for a 131 wRC+. Last year, despite the foot injury, he got into 151 contests but his production dipped to .224/.327/.399 and a 109 wRC+.

Nimmo turns 32 in March but his contract runs through 2030, so the club will obviously want to keep him healthy and productive for as long as possible. The fact that he’s trending towards Opening Day readiness is a good sign but the club will probably opt for playing things slow for long-term health if any speed bumps arise.

Minter, 31, was just signed a few days ago. His 2024 season was ended by left hip surgery in August. Regardless, the Mets liked him enough to give him a two-year, $22MM deal with an opt-out after year one. His recovery timeline in the wake of that procedure has been a little murky but he’s hoping to be ready for the start of the season as well.

“The goal is to be ready for Opening Day, hopefully,” Minter said. “With that being said, my hip does feel really good. I’m happy where I am. I don’t want to put a date on it. … The Mets are going to have their protocols. They want me to take it day by day. But for me, personally, my goal is to be ready close to Opening Day.”

Over the past five years, Minter has posted an earned run average of 2.85 over 267 appearances. He has struck out 30.1% of opponents while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. His contributions were more limited last year due to the hip injury but the Mets are clearly hoping he can be back to his old self once that’s fully in the rear-view mirror.

Mets Sign A.J. Minter

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The Mets announced that they have signed free agent reliever A.J. Minter. It’s reportedly a two-year, $22MM contract. The Bledsoe Agency client can opt out after the first season. The Mets had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Minter, 31, has been a strong performer in recent years. However, there is at least some uncertainty due to his health. He went on the injured list twice in 2024 due to left hip inflammation and eventually underwent surgery in August.

It’s unclear exactly when Minter will be fully healthy again but the surgery doesn’t seem to have hurt his market. He’s been connected to the Blue Jays, Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox over the past couple of months and now has a strong pact with the Mets. Perhaps that indicates clubs aren’t too worried about his recovery from the hip procedure impacting him in 2025.

Just looking at Minter’s results, the robust interest makes plenty of sense. From 2020 to 2024, the lefty made 267 relief appearances, allowing 2.85 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 30.1% of batters faced while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. He was a key relief arm for Atlanta, who let him earn 16 saves and 92 holds in that time. Even while pitching through the hip problems in 2024, he managed to throw 34 1/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate.

Despite the hip surgery, it was fair to expect Minter to be one of the most popular relief arms in this winter’s market. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $16MM pact but almost all pitchers have been outearning their projections this winter, with Minter no exception. He gets a $22MM guarantee and also an opt-out, meaning he will have the ability to become a free agent again next winter if he demonstrates his health and has a strong season.

The Mets are a sensible landing spot for Minter, as their bullpen is in a state of flux. At the end of the 2024 season, they saw Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith and Phil Maton become free agents.

The club also came into the winter particularly shorthanded in terms of left-handed relief. Raley was one such member on the 2024 club, though he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of May, well before he became a free agent. Jake Diekman was released during the season. Josh Walker was traded around the same time. Alex Young was non-tendered at the end of the year.

All of that left the Mets with Danny Young as their only southpaw reliever on the roster, so an addition made plenty of sense. They signed Génesis Cabrera to a minor league deal and have been connected to free agents like Tanner Scott and Tim Hill. Signing either Scott or Hill could still be an option but the lefty contingent of the Mets bullpen now looks much stronger with Minter in it. Per Mike Puma of The New York Post, the Mets are unlikely to continue pursuing Scott with Minter now on board.

For the Mets, perhaps this is yet another move away from their relationship with Pete Alonso. As recently as yesterday morning, it seemed possible that the Mets and Alonso would work something out. But reporting from yesterday afternoon indicated that the Mets didn’t want to have a prolonged staredown with Alonso. Since they had other players on their radar, they planned instead to move on and spread money around to various different players. In the past 24 hours, they have agreed to new deals with Jesse Winker and now Minter.

The deal with Minter pushed the club’s payroll and competitive balance tax number up to $297MM and $293MM respectively, in the eyes of RosterResource. Last year, those numbers were $336MM and $346MM. If they are willing to get to similar levels in 2025, they still have lots of space to work with. That could be enough room to bring back Alonso but the Mets might also look to make further bullpen upgrades.

They are already between the third and four tiers of the CBT, which are $281MM and $301MM this year. As a third-time payor, they will be facing a tax of 95% for any more money they add up to the fourth line and a 110% rate for spending beyond it. Since Steve Cohen became owner of the team, the tax has never really seemed to be any kind of obstacle for the Mets.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets had an agreement with Minter. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported the two-year, $22MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the opt-out provision.

Red Sox Showing Interest In A.J. Minter

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The Red Sox have had multiple conversations with free agent reliever A.J. Minter this offseason, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Cotillo lists a few other relievers with whom the Sox have had discussions: Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle and Andrew Kittredge. However, he suggests that Boston could be on the periphery of the Estévez market and that “nothing has heated up” in their conversations with Kahnle.

Minter has been linked to the Blue Jays, Rangers and Cubs in recent weeks. Texas has already made a handful of bullpen signings, including last night’s one-year deal with former Boston righty Chris Martin. The Jays and Cubs should still be involved in the relief market. During the season, Minter had expressed some interest in returning to the Braves, though it’s not clear how seriously Atlanta has pushed for a reunion.

The 31-year-old has been one of the game’s more reliable lefty setup arms during his career. Between 2020-23, he combined for a 2.89 earned run average while striking out more than 30% of opposing hitters in more than 200 innings. Minter’s platform year was a little more questionable. He still managed good numbers, turning in a 2.62 ERA with a solid 26.1% strikeout rate. Left hip issues limited him to 39 appearances, though. He underwent surgery that ended his season in the middle of August.

Minter could be ready early in the year, so the injury should not be too detrimental to his market. That said, it may limit him to two years when he seemed on track for a three-year pact earlier in 2024. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM deal.

The relief market has moved slowly. Boston’s $10.75MM deal with Aroldis Chapman is one of four eight-figure reliever contracts thus far. The Sox also brought in Justin Wilson on a one-year deal at a low cost ($2.25MM). Minter would complete a trifecta of new southpaws in Alex Cora’s late-inning mix.

Kahnle is a righty who generally fares better against left-handed hitters. That’s a reflection of how often he uses his changeup. Kahnle turned to the “offspeed” pitch more than 70% of the time last season. It’s tough to argue with the results, as he turned in a 2.11 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opponents across 42 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Kittredge, a righty who leans on his slider roughly half the time, is coming off a strong season for the Cardinals. The 34-year-old worked 70 2/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball with a league average 23.3% strikeout rate.

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