Royals Rumors

Making Sense Of The Whit Merrifield Extension

By Jeff Todd | January 28, 2019 at 12:58pm CDT

It’s difficult sometimes to make sense of the extensions we hear about. Why is it that player A is earning so much more or less than player B? Sometimes it’s obvious; sometimes it’s not. In some cases, there are relatively unique, personal circumstances that help explain it — some of which may not even really become known publicly. In every case, the actual course of negotiations requires both sides to estimate market value at a point at which there are necessarily still key factors that are unknown. There’s plenty of variability based upon varying motivations of the particular team and player involved. Still, we like to think that market value underpins baseball contracts. Every deal is susceptible of examination from a value perspective.

Given all of that, it seems worth taking a closer look at the recently reported deal between the Royals and second baseman/center fielder Whit Merrifield. Despite two-straight All-Star seasons and an upward trajectory in his performance, he’s promised just $16.25MM over four years — less than the qualifying offer rate ($17.9MM) for a single season. He can boost that by a bit via escalators, but will also give away an option year at a $10.5MM salary. Even in the extension context, it seems like a bargain for a high-quality player who has immense versatility and a well-rounded skillset. So, how to make sense of this?

It all starts with his experience and age. Merrifield is still shy of three years of MLB service yet just recently hit his 30th birthday. Since he didn’t have enough service time to reach arbitration early as a Super Two qualifier, he was still a full season away from commanding more than the league minimum salary, with the inherent risks and limitations of the arb process to look forward to thereafter. Moreover, the recent trends in the aging curve have not been kind to elder statesmen.

Add to that the fact that Merrifield’s most notable skills — hitting for average, speed on the bases, and good and versatile glovework — are not particularly well-compensated in the arbitration process. To be sure, they do show up indirectly in earnings since the process pays players who see a lot of playing time. But power stats (homers and ribbies) have tended to pay best over time than the harder-to-quantify areas of the game. Even stolen bases, the counting stat in which Merrifield shines, aren’t considered major drivers.

Whatever one thinks of Merrifield’s particular outlook, in terms of skills and health, the overall situation was one in which his anticipated future earnings were rather limited. In arbitration, barring a huge power burst, he’d have profiled as a strong but hardly record-shattering player. And his hypothetical free agency was laden with risk. How might he look as a player four years in the future? Nobody knows, but odds are he won’t be quite in his prime, since his pre-existing arbitration control extended through his age-33 season.

Let’s dig into the numbers to see why this is the case.

First, looking at the forthcoming arb years, we can check in on some second basemen and other comps to learn about what Merrifield might have taken home had he elected to go year to year. As I’ve noted previously, DJ LeMahieu represents an interesting overall comp since he just wrapped up his own arbitration run. After starting with a $3.0MM salary, and posting one big offensive season during his arb years, he finished with a $16.3MM total — a near-exact (and perhaps not coincidental) match for what Merrifield will receive.

When I first proposed that comp last March, Merrifield had yet to post his excellent 2018 season. As things stand, it’s not hard to see a path to more than $16.25MM. Just how high Merrifield could have climbed would obviously have been dependent upon what he does in the season to come, but we can guess at some parameters.

In terms of starting point, Merrifield ought to end up with a case for much greater earning power than LeMahieu (.284/.329/.370, 15 home runs, 157 RBI, 1,901 plate appearances) and Joe Panik (.282/.345/.408, 29 home runs, 170 RBI, 1,818 plate appearances), who earned $3.45MM in his first arb year. The Dodgers’ Chris Taylor rode a breakout 2017 and solid 2018 follow-up to a first-year arb salary of $3.5MM. He’s sitting on 39 home runs and 152 RBI with a .262/.331/.435 batting line through 1490 plate appearances. Even if Merrifield isn’t able to push or top twenty long balls in 2019, he’d surely be on track to carry a much more impressive overall statistical baseline than Taylor. He already has more plate appearances (1,669) and RBI (167) and nearly as many long balls (33), with a full season left to improve upon those tallies.

On the other hand, it’s tough to foresee anything like the 34-dinger outburst and second-place MVP finish that allowed Javier Baez to achieve a $5.2MM first-year arb salary. In all likelihood, depending upon how things play out in 2018, Merrifield likely would have commanded an arb-1 salary somewhere between the numbers we’ve thrown out for consideration — say, in the realm of $3.75MM to $4.75MM.

A few other mid-arb players also help illustrate how things could have proceeded in the event that Merrifield would have kept producing throughout his arb years, quite apart from the starting point. Shortstop Marcus Semien entered arb with sixty home runs and near-average total productivity through just under two thousand plate appearances. He earned $3.125MM in his first year after an injury-limited platform season and bumped up to $5.9MM in 2019 salary after launching 15 long balls in 703 plate appearances. Scooter Gennett jumped from a $2.525MM starting point to $5.7MM and $9.775MM salaries, driven by a total of fifty dingers and robust overall productivity in his final two platform campaigns.

With good fortune and some continued improvement, Merrifield could have tracked those or even greater raises. In the best-case, reasonably realistic scenario — fully healthy seasons at the top of his prior power levels (~20 home runs annually) — he might have started at a $4.5MM level and taken home successive $3.5MM raises. That would have resulted in $24MM of total arbitration salary.

Of course, it’s imaginable that Merrifield’s performance, and/or intervening health issues, could deflect him from that sort of path. Joe Panik had set the stage for bigger earnings than that (despite suffering a major ballpark-related disadvantage vis-a-vis LeMahieu), but stumbled after taking down $3.45MM in his arb1 season. He settled for just $3.8MM for the coming campaign and has no hope of approaching LeMahieu’s overall earning level.

Obviously, any kind of significant injury would sap any player’s ability to command a raise. Since Merrifield is not even in arbitration yet, an ill-timed and significant injury (say, in camp this spring) could have been extremely damaging to his earning power. Even if things went well for a time, Merrifield would always have been vulnerable to injuries or downturns in performance. That’s the same for any player, but the risks were amplified (and the future free agent benefits diminished) by his age.

It bears emphasis that the risks still apply before Merrifield would reach arbitration, since he’s still a full season away. Don’t believe me about the variance in arb earnings? Here’s an illustration, using some big names. Francisco Lindor nearly set a first-year-eligible record when he agreed to a $10.55MM contract earlier this month. He has been healthier and more productive of late than the fellow star shortstop of the same service class to whom he’s often compared — Carlos Correa, who edged Lindor in the 2015 Rookie of the Year vote. The Astros star’s salary remains unresolved, but will fall between $4.25MM and $5MM. Despite piling up plate appearances at the outset of his career, Correa is now over five hundred shy of Lindor due to some injuries. Unsurprisingly, he has also fallen behind his contemporary in home runs and holds only a slight edge in runs batted in. Correa still holds a clear edge in overall, park-adjusted offensive productivity (128 wRC+ vs. 120 wRC+), and is still considered an elite talent, but took a down year at the wrong time. Lindor’s playing time and power ramped up in his platform years, allowing him to more than double Correa’s first-year arb earning power.

If $24MM of arbitration earnings represented a best-case scenario, then the downside was more or less unlimited. Obviously, it’s hard to imagine that Merrifield would be cut out of significant future earnings entirely, barring a truly catastrophic injury. But he’s still a full season away. And as Panik shows, it’s not hard to craft a scenario where the earnings come in well short of their anticipated trajectory. The risks are clear.

If there’s something potentially objectionable about this arrangement from Merrifield’s perspective, perhaps it’s the fact that he coughed up a free agent season. That’s where the Royals could find some real upside, since they’ll have a chance to hang onto Merrifield for only a one-year commitment, when he could in theory be in position to take down quite a bit more in free agency.

That said, just what kind of open-market earning scenarios is Merrifield really sacrificing (or, at least pushing back by one year)? It seems rather unlikely, even from four years out, that he’ll enter the 2023 season thinking he left an enormous amount of money on the table.

Take this comparison. We can all agree that Merrifield has had an outstanding pair of seasons. He’s sitting on a .296/.347/.449 cumulative slash with 31 home runs and 79 steals, with his other contributions leading to a cumulative valuation of 9.3 rWAR / 8.1 fWAR. Compare that to Jed Lowrie, who once had his own breakout season at 29 years of age. He was injured in the interim but turned things on more recently. Lowrie just hit the open market at a slightly more advanced age than Merrifield would have, sporting a two-year platform of .272/.356/.448 hitting with 37 home runs and 8.8 rWAR / 8.5 fWAR.

Lowrie’s free agent take? Two years and $20MM. That salary level is reflected in the one option year that Merrifield gave the team in his new deal, which is valued at $10.5MM — again, as with the LeMahieu arb comp, perhaps not coincidentally.

Even in a highly optimistic scenario, such as the Ben Zobrist bidding war, there’s a limit to what this sort of player can earn in free agency. Zobrist was a hot commodity entering his age-35 season, having a long track record of excellent offensive production (well outstripping Merrifield’s overall record to this point) and defensive versatility. He secured a four-year, $56MM contract.

All things considered, this seems to be rather a fair arrangement for both sides. It’s a deal that lets the team avoid a runaway arbitration salary, and perhaps gain another season of a respected veteran at a bit of a discount rate. But it’s hardly the Jose Ramirez contract — another deal involving a two-plus service class infielder who was coming off of a breakout campaign. Ramirez, of course, was just 24 years of age and was just beginning an ascendancy that has continued to levels that were perhaps not anticipated at the time. His deal conveyed a pair of valuable team options — for his age-30 and 31 seasons. The sort of upside present there just isn’t available in the Merrifield contract.

For a 30-year-old, non-slugging infielder/outfielder who is still less than three campaigns into his MLB career, this extension lands in a sensible realm in terms of both length and total guarantee. Upon sifting through some other recent contracts, it’s not hard to see how the sides landed where they did.

AL Central Notes: Romero, Dozier, White Sox

By Jeff Todd | January 28, 2019 at 8:42am CDT

Young Twins hurler Fernando Romero is one of several of the club’s pitchers who could end up in a variety of roles when camp breaks, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. While the rotation appears to be largely settled, perhaps it’s not out of the question that he could force his way into a job there — or, of course, take an opening if there’s an injury. Otherwise, Romero could certainly head back to Triple-A to continue developing and serve as depth. Most intriguingly, though, is the possibility that he’d stay with the MLB club as a reliever. While there’s an argument to be made that doing so now might make it less likely to capture his true upside, the Twins see several elements that make Romero a particularly interesting relief candidate. His prior injury history is one element; it also stands to reason that he’d thrive if allowed to focus on his two best pitches (fastball/slider) in shorter stints. The front office still seems to be contemplating the possibilities — closer competitor? multi-inning piggyback mate for Martin Perez? — with plans to wait and see how things look in Fort Myers.

A few more items from the AL Central …

All indications are that the Royals believe they can rebound quickly from a down 2018 season and the loss of their prior slate of core players. That seems optimistic from the outside, but we certainly don’t know all that the club does about its own players. First/third baseman Hunter Dozier is one of several players who seems to have a big opportunity ahead of him, as John Sleezer of the Kansas City Star writes. Though he took his lumps in the big leagues last year, Dozier says he felt a change after he settled in at the game’s highest level. “Once things started clicking,” he says, “I got my confidence back and then it became a lot of fun again.” Of course, while Dozier did boost his performance later in the year, his .247/.287/.453 post-All-Star break slash line does highlight the biggest question facing him from an offseason perspective — i.e., whether he’ll consistently get on base. In the field, the team observed big strides, but it remains to be seen whether Dozier can handle third at even a roughly league-average level. He also graded as a very poor baserunner. Clearly, there’s plenty of risk in this profile, but the Royals still seem to have faith — or, at least, feel they need to use the coming season to see what they have in Dozier and a few other as-yet-unestablished players.
As the White Sox continue to chase Manny Machado, Mark Lazerus of The Athletic (subscription link) looks at what that has meant for some of the team’s existing infielders. Yolmer Sanchez and Tim Anderson, could stand to see their own situations disrupted — whether by a loss of playing time, a change of position, or perhaps even a trade. Both Sanchez and Anderson say they are in favor of anything that moves the club closer to putting a championship contender on the field, though the latter certainly did not sound particularly inclined to hand over his slot at shortstop. “I’m not just going to give him shortstop,” says Anderson of a hypothetical acquisition of Machado. “I’m not just going to bow to him. That’ my position. … It’s mine until somebody takes it.” Just what the team’s plans would be if they do secure Machado’s services aren’t clear. Many have wondered whether a promise to play him at short would be part of the bargain, though GM Rick Hahn did suggest the star has indicated he’ll defer to the team’s positional preferences. In any event, the first order of business is to get Manny (or perhaps another star) to sign on — an ongoing priority that Hahn has made no secret of.

Recovery Notes: Pineda, Nelson, Dubon, Seager, Zimmer

By TC Zencka | January 27, 2019 at 2:20pm CDT

Michael Pineda has yet to throw a pitch for the Twins, but he’s healthy now and ready to make his Twins debut in 2019, per Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. The Twins signed Pineda to a two-year, $10MM guarantee last December as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, hoping he might be ready for the latter half of the season. Just when it looked like Pineda was ready to return, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his knee, ending his season before it began. Injuries have been a constant for Pineda’s career, though he did put together back-to-back healthy campaigns for the Yankees in 2015 and 2016. His overall 4.05 ERA is boosted by a particularly strong rookie campaign, but across 680 innings in Seattle and New York, he did turn in 9.1 K/9 to 2.1 BB/9. The Twins are perhaps the most wait-and-see team in the league, with many volatile assets equally capable of All-Star seasons and bottoming out (Pineda, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop, among others). With no guaranteed money on the books for 2020, recent speculation has Minnesota as a sleeper team for either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Thad Levine threw some water on that idea, as he believes significant acquisitions of that variety are more appropriate for frontrunners atop a division, rather than a young team on the rise, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Certainly an interesting take from the Minnesota GM. Now, some more recovery news from around the league…

The Brewers will return an intriguing arm to their rotation this spring, as Jimmy Nelson is healthy and ready to go, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). Nelson will have no restrictions heading into Spring Training, and he’s not backing down from high expectations either, making clear his goal to get the nod on Opening Day – unlikely as that may be. Nelson put together an impressive campaign in 2017 that launched him to the top of the Milwaukee rotation, but it’s probably best to temper expectations after a torn labrum took his 2018. For Milwaukee, the tide is turning on what was seen as a rickety rotation leading up to the playoffs, as their starting staff now looks to be a source of potential strength. Jhoulys Chacin made himself irreplaceable in their run to the NLCS, and he’s backed by Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, both rebound candidates after subpar seasons. Add Nelson, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, among others, as contenders to join what now looks like a high-ceiling and deep, if unstable, unit.
Rosiak also notes (via Twitter) that prospects Keston Hiura and Mauricio Dubon are ready for a big year, rested in the former’s case and healthy after ACL surgery in the latter’s. While both will return to big league camp this spring, they’ve been told they won’t be with the team on Opening Day, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (via Twitter). None of this should come as a surprise, as it’s become the norm for top prospects to begin their debut seasons in Triple A, but it’s safe to say Hiura, at least, is hopeful to make an impact at the ML level sometime in 2019. Dubon, for his part, was ripping through Triple A before the surgery, hitting .343/.348/.574 in 27 games with Colorado Springs.
Corey Seager hasn’t taken batting practice since his injury last May, but he’s long-tossing in preparation for an important spring back in the middle of the Dodgers infield, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Seager isn’t yet mobilizing for groundballs or throwing across the diamond, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery has gone according to plan thus far and hope remains that he’ll be ready by Opening Day. He’s hitting off a tee, with the next steps being batting practice in the cage before going against live pitching. The Dodgers have the depth to cover for Seager if he’s not ready by Opening Day – with Chris Taylor the most likely stand-in – but he’s obviously a huge part of their team moving forward.
The Royals fanbase is still waiting for the long-heralded debut of former top draft choice Kyle Zimmer, but it seems nearly time after he signed a major league contract this winter, per the Kansas City Star’ s Lynn Worthy. Zimmer was the 5th overall pick of the 2012 draft, but he missed the entirety of 2018 while training at the Driveline Baseball pitching program. Even so, he was clocked in the mid-90s this fall, and the Royals weren’t alone in competing for Zimmer’s services, hence the major league contract. Said GM Dayton Moore of the deal, “I would rather have him fail with us than go somewhere else and succeed.” While that’s not exactly a rousing sentiment, and it could be read as vindictive, that does not appear to be Moore’s intent, who praised Zimmer for his mindset and toughness. For Zimmer’s part, he spoke glowingly of the Royals longstanding support and loyalty in his continued journey to toe a major league rubber. If he can stay healthy, there’s opportunity enough for Zimmer to make his debut at Kauffman Stadium sometime in 2019, and despite Moore’s omission of Zimmer’s potential success with the Royals as one of his potential futures, that’s surely the goal for both parties.

AL Notes: Davidson, O’s, Kelley, Gonzalez, Rays

By Steve Adams | January 23, 2019 at 11:01pm CDT

To no one’s surprise, the rebuilding Orioles have been extremely quiet this offseason, focusing more on front office, player development and analytics hires while also piecing together a coaching staff under new GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde. However, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Baltimore does have some interest in free-agent corner infielder/designated hitter Matt Davidson, who was non-tendered by the White Sox earlier this winter. Davidson, 28 in March, more than doubled his career walk rate last season, drawing a free pass at a 10.5 percent clip after walking in just 4.3 percent of his plate appearances in 2017. However, the increase in patience came with a bit of a dip in power, and strikeouts remained a severe issue (33.3 percent). In all, the slugger hit .228/.319/.419 with 20 big flies in 496 plate appearances. Davidson has 46 home runs in his past 939 PAs but is still a work in progress at the plate. He could potentially give Baltimore some pop off the bench, and his right-handed bat could help to shield Chris Davis from opposing lefties as the veteran attempts to rebound from a catastrophic 2018 season.

Royals’ Eric Skoglund Suspended 80 Games

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2019 at 4:59pm CDT

Royals left-hander Eric Skoglund has been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for “Selective Androgen Receptor Modulators S-22 (Ostarine) and LGD-4033 (Ligandrol),” the league announced Wednesday.

Skoglund, 26, would presumably have been in the mix for a rotation spot with the Royals this spring but will instead sit out the first half of the season without pay. The 2014 third-rounder has had some success at the Triple-A level thus far in his career but has not yet broken out as a reliable MLB option in Kansas City. In 14 appearances for the Royals in 2018 (13 starts), Skoglund pitched to a 5.14 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9 and a 42.1 percent ground-ball rate. He does have a 4.13 ERA with nearly a punchout per inning and similar control numbers through 109 innings with the Royals’ top minor league affiliate in Omaha.

Kansas City presently figures to open the season with Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, Brad Keller and Ian Kennedy in the rotation. Skoglund’s subtraction from the race for the fifth spot will give names like Jesse Hahn, Trevor Oaks, Heath Fillmyer and Ben Lively a greater chance of making some starts in the early stages of a 2019 season that appears destined to be a rebuilding year for the Royals as they work to develop a new core following their 2015 World Series Championship.

The suspension will open a spot on the Royals’ 40-man roster, which had previously been full.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/13/19

By Mark Polishuk | January 13, 2019 at 11:59pm CDT

Catching up on some recent minor league moves from around the baseball world….

The Cubs signed catcher Francisco Arcia to a minor league deal, as originally reported by the Cubs Prospects Twitter feed. Originally signed as a teenager by the Yankees in 2006, the 29-year-old Arcia finally cracked the big leagues last season, appearing 40 games for the Angels and hitting .204/.226/.427 with six homers over 106 plate appearances. Arcia will provide the Cubs with some depth behind backup Victor Caratini, and Arcia could also battle for the backup role himself in Spring Training.
The Rays signed right-hander Luis Santos to a minors contract, Baseball America’s Matthew Eddy reports. Santos posted a 5.15 ERA over 36 2/3 innings out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen over the last two seasons, though a big problem with the long ball (2.0 HR/9) belied some better peripherals, such as a 9.8 K/9 and a 2.86 K/BB rate.
Also from Eddy, the Rockies re-signed left-hander Sam Howard to a minors deal, after originally non-tendering Howard at the start of December. Howard was a third-round pick for the Rockies in 2014, and he made his Major League debut last season, tossing four innings over four games with Colorado. MLB.com ranks Howard as the 24th-best prospect in the Rockies’ farm system, describing him as a potential fourth starter in the big leagues “if he can improve his slider and command.”
The Padres signed left-hander Eric Stout to a minor league contract, according to Zone Coverage’s Brandon Warne (Twitter link). Stout posted a 3.68 ERA, 2.63 K/BB rate, and 7.4 K/9 over 269 1/3 career innings in the Royals’ farm system, appearing as a reliever in all but five of his 153 career games. Stout also made his MLB debut in 2018, appearing in three games for Kansas City.
Also from Warne, the Royals inked infielder Taylor Featherston to a minors contract. After playing in 137 games with the Angels, Phillies, and Rays from 2015-17, Featherston didn’t see any Major League action last season, spending time in the farm systems of the Twins and Reds, plus a short stint in independent ball. Featherston has offered more with the glove than his bat over his career, with a lot of experience at second base, third base, and shortstop, plus some time as a left field and first baseman.
The Giants have signed righty Keyvius Sampson to a minors deal. Sampson makes his return to North American baseball after spending 2018 with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, posting a 4.68 ERA over 161 2/3 IP for the Eagles and posting a league-best 195 strikeouts. Sampson has pitched for five different MLB organizations during his 10-year pro career, though he only reached the majors for 91 2/3 innings with the Reds in 2015-16.
The Giants also signed second baseman Donovan Solano to a minors deal, as per the Giants Prospects Twitter feed. Solano was a regular for the Marlins in his first three MLB seasons, though he appeared more sporadically for the Marlins and Yankees in 2015-16 and hasn’t since returned to the Show, playing for the Yankees’ and Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliates over the last two seasons. Playing mostly as a second baseman but with some experience around the infield, Solano has a .257/.306/.331 slash line over 1168 MLB plate appearances.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/11/19

By Steve Adams | January 11, 2019 at 9:32am CDT

We’ll keep track of the day’s minor moves here…

The Red Sox have brought outfielder Bryce Brentz back to the organization on a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, the team revealed in announcing a series of non-roster invitations. Now 30 years old, Brentz was drafted by the Red Sox in 2010 and stuck with the organization through 2017 before landing with the Mets. He batted .264/.332/.580 with 15 homers and 16 doubles for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League last season. Brentz saw brief MLB action with Boston in 2014 and 2016, hitting a combined .287/.311/.379 in 90 trips to the plate.
Infielder Cheslor Cuthbert cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Omaha, the Royals announced. He’d been designated for assignment earlier in the week. Cuthbert, 26, long rated as one of Kansas City’s best prospects and showed a bit of promise in 2016 when he hit .274/.318/.413 in 510 plate appearances as a rookie. However, he’s followed that up with a dismal .215/.278/.313 slash in 270 PAs over the past two seasons. The corner infielder could yet emerge in the Majors again with a strong showing in Triple-A, of course.
Catcher Tomas Telis and left-handed reliever Dario Alvarez have joined the Twins on minor league contracts, writes La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Telis, 27, has spent the past three and a half seasons in the Marlins organization but struggled to produce in limited stints at the big league level. He’s a career .230/.267/.298 hitter in 267 Major League plate appearances but owns a strong .304/.349/.413 slash in nearly 1500 Triple-A plate appearances. Alvarez, 30 next week, has a 5.06 ERA in 48 MLB innings but has also racked up 61 strikeouts in that time. He’s been far too homer-prone (1.9 HR/9) and, at times, has struggled with control, but Alvarez has averaged 11+ strikeouts per nine innings in both the Majors and over a nine-year minor league career.

Royals Sign Kyle Zimmer, Designate Cheslor Cuthbert

By Mark Polishuk | January 4, 2019 at 6:50pm CDT

The Royals have signed right-hander Kyle Zimmer to a one-year deal, the team announced (Twitter links). Zimmer’s deal is a Major League deal, and MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter) that it is a split contract. Zimmer will earn $124K in the minors and $555K (the MLB minimum salary) if he cracks the Royals’ big league roster. In a corresponding move, the Royals have designated third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert for assignment.

After being selected with the fifth overall pick of the 2012 draft, Zimmer has yet to reach the majors, as his development has been stalled by a series of injuries. Shoulder and elbow problems have been consistent issues, and Zimmer underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in July 2016. All in all, Zimmer has tossed just 259 minor league innings since making his pro debut in 2012, and he didn’t pitch at all last season.

In this context, it’s a little curious why K.C. felt the need to sign Zimmer to a Major League contract rather than another minor league agreement, though obviously the price is far from prohibitive and the split deal gives Zimmer a bit of extra guaranteed cash.

Despite all the injuries, Zimmer continued to be listed on multiple top-100 prospect rankings as recently as 2016, due to the potential he flashed when he was able to take the mound. Zimmer has a 3.54 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and a 3.44 K/BB rate in the minors, though he did have a 5.79 ERA over his only Triple-A exposure, a 32 2/3-inning stint in 2017. Zimmer worked mostly as a reliever in 2017 and that would seem like his clearest path to the majors, though just making the Show would be an achievement for Zimmer at this point given his plethora of health issues.

Cuthbert has also been plagued with injuries over the last two seasons, playing in just 88 total games for the Royals with only a .215/.278/.313 slash line over 270 plate appearances. Cuthbert looked to breaking in as a regular in the Kansas City lineup in 2016, though his diminished play over the last two years has made him an expendable part of the Royals’ rebuild.

The Royals avoided arbitration with Cuthbert by agreeing to a $850K contract for the 2019 season, though like all arb deals, this contract isn’t guaranteed until the season actually begins. If the Royals were to part ways with Cuthbert before the 16th day of Spring Training, they would only owe him 30 days of prorated termination pay based on his contract value (so in this case, roughly $143K). Cuthbert is also out of options, so even if Kansas City wanted to keep him in the organization, he’d have to clear this waiver process.

3 Remaining Needs: AL Central

By Ty Bradley | January 2, 2019 at 8:24pm CDT

Our 3 Remaining Needs series skips over to the Cleveland-dominated American League Central, home to three of MLB’s least successful franchises in 2018. The Tribe still figure to have a stranglehold on the division, though the upstart Twins have kicked off the winter with a flurry of moves, and prospect-rich White Sox are shooting well beyond their typical free-agent moon. Here’s a look at the three most pressing needs for each team in the division (listed in order of 2018 finish) . . .

[Previous installments: NL West, NL East, NL Central, AL West]

Cleveland Indians

Find an outfielder (or three). The Tribe probably don’t need to do anything this winter if their aim is simply to lock down a fourth straight division crown, but surely the title-starved club, rife with franchise icons on the infield and in the rotation, has set its sights a good deal higher. If so, they’ll need to fix their desolate outfield situation, which currently features some haphazard mix of Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, Leonys Martin, Greg Allen, and Tyler Naquin. Jason Kipnis could be an option as well, though the club has already swapped penciled-in third baseman Yandy Diaz for Bauers, which should force Jose Ramirez back to the hot corner and Kipnis – who suffered through a second consecutive subpar season in ’18 – back to second. The Indians saved about $18MM by dealing Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion, so this should be their first priority.
Address the pen. Behind star-level closer Brad Hand, the Tribe pen is surprisingly thin. Tyler Olson, essentially a LOOGY at this point in his career, is otherwise the club’s highest-producing returner, with a 2.94 xFIP in just 29 IP. Stunningly, not a single other returning Indian reliever posted higher than 0.1 fWAR in 2018, with heralded midseason acquisition Adam Cimber posting a dreadful 3.15 K/9 over an identical 3.15 BB/9 in his stint with the club. Cleveland has long treasured bargain pickups in this area, and may again be left shuffling through the bin in search of help.
Acquire a catcher. Recent deals have stripped the club of star prospect Francisco Mejia and the up-and-down Yan Gomes, leaving just a combination of Roberto Perez and Eric Haase behind the dish, each of whom project around replacement level. An upper-minors savior isn’t in the wings, so the club will likely be forced to look elsewhere for an upgrade.

Minnesota Twins

Solidify the back end of the rotation. The Twins have gone all-in on righty power (Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop) this winter, but have still yet to address a number of staff holes. A top end of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Kyle Gibson – plus a returning Michael Pineda – is a nice start, but three of the four are free agents after the season, and the club has little in the way of track record after that. Youngsters Stephen Gonsalves, Lewis Thorpe, and Fernando Romero could fill in eventually, but none appear poised to immediately lock down a role.
Shore up the pen. Taylor Rogers quietly had one of MLB’s best relief seasons in 2018 (a dominant 54 FIP-) and Trevor May is a quality arm, but the Twins lack anything in the way of cohesion beyond that. Figureheads Addison Reed and Trevor Hildenberger struggled mightily with the long ball last year and, with the fickle nature of even longtime bullpen success stories, can hardly be counted on in the season to come. Lefty Andrew Vasquez deserves at least an early-season look after sporting minor league numbers that nearly defy belief, but the club would do well to hunt down two or three more proven performers in the back end.
Don’t mess with Kepler. German-born Max Kepler has accrued nearly three full seasons’ worth of MLB at-bats in his young career and has yet to produce even a league-average line, but a closer look suggests there may be much more to come. Indeed, the 25-year-old quietly accumulated a solid 2.6 fWAR last season despite a balls-in-play average of just .236, and his plate-discipline profile (11.6 BB%/15.7 K%) stood as one of the AL’s best. Kepler earns plus defensive marks wherever he plays, and could be a breakout center-field candidate if Byron Buxton again sputters early in the season. Kepler is an apparently a sought-after commodity on the trade market this winter, but the man who Steamer projects to produce a 110 wRC+ (Brandon Nimmo, by comparison, is at 112) should have a long-term home in Minneapolis.

Detroit Tigers

Find a taker for Nick Castellanos. Castellanos, 26, had his best offensive season last year, slashing .298/.354/.500 (130 wRC+) with a celestial 48% hard-hit rate. He’s entering the last year of team control, though, and would seem to have to have little on-field value for a rebuilding Tiger club; numerous teams are said to have had interest, but the price (somewhat oddly, given his defensive ineptitude) remains exorbitant.
Continue to hunt for flip candidates. Thus far in the offseason, Detroit has signed Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, and Jordy Mercer, all of whom (but especially the former two) could have legitimate mid-season trade value if they unexpectedly return to form. Pickups of this ilk seem ideal for a Tiger team in flux; a few more, perhaps at multiple spots in the outfield and in the bullpen, could be an excellent jumpstart for the nascent rebuild.
Add prospect depth. It’s been years – decades, maybe – since the Tiger farm churned out multiple big leaguers at a time, with the team instead preferring to assemble their best clubs through shrewd trades and lavish free-agent signings. Now, though, seems the perfect time to amass a burgeoning juggernaut on the farm; the club is off to a great start, with three of the league’s top-50 prospects in place, but strength in numbers will be the order of the next few seasons in Motown.

Chicago White Sox

Sign one of (or both) Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. This remains a long shot, to be sure, but the talk in Chicagoland seems to be intensifying around each superstar. Whether the White Sox, who’ve never handed out a free-agent contract north of $70MM in club history, are willing to meet the respective enormous demands is unclear, but a seat at the table may be sufficient for the long-suffering fans on the Southside.
Find guys who put the ball in play. The White Sox led baseball with a hard-to-believe 26.3 K% last year, and received meager ancillary benefit, with a mid-pack team ISO of just .160. Among regulars, only Jose Abreu had a strikeout percentage under 20%, which may well be a first in major-league history. A power-driven lineup makes sense in the homer-happy Guaranteed Rate Field, but it won’t mean much if the club continues to strike out at a historic collective pace.
Find guys who keep the ball in play. Chicago’s 115 xFIP- was dead-last in MLB last year, aided in no small part by a league-worst 4.09 BB/9 and the tendency of its starters to deliver up the gopher ball. Head culprit James Shields is gone, but the club needs, urgently, to be on the scent of pitchers with a track record of limiting the home run. Perhaps no pitcher would be a better fit than Marcus Stroman (0.81 career HR/9), but others, like Gio Gonzalez, Mike Leake, Sonny Gray, and even perhaps Martin Perez, who was homer-allergic in his previous few seasons prior to last, would be excellent choices as well.

Kansas City Royals

Scour the depths for pitching help. Kansas City’s pitching staff was, by any account, an unmitigated disaster last season, as the team’s hurlers struck out a mere 7.27 men per nine on the way to near-league-worst output. The team, oddly, has poured so much of its resources into finding high-contact offensive players, but seems thoroughly disinterested in identifying their inverse on the pitching staff. The 2018 Royals featured nine regular contributors who struck out seven or fewer men last season, none of whom received much help from the unit’s highest-priced contingent of Ian Kennedy and Danny Duffy. Put simply, the Royals need mound help wherever they can find it.
Cash in peak-value assets. 30-year-old Whit Merrifield’s value will likely never be higher – fresh off a 5.2 fWAR season, the versatile IF/OF has already piqued the interest of a number of a clubs, all of whom have been informed that he likely is not available. Such a strategy seems unsound – Merrifield, after all, projects around league-average next season, would seem to have hit his zenith, and doesn’t figure to be a key cog in the next contending Royals club. Plus, there’s the troubling track record – it took Whit three tries to progress beyond Double-A, and another three to get past AAA. If a crater is on the horizon, Kansas City will certainly be kicking themselves in the seasons to come.
Find regular at-bats for Brett Phillips and Jorge Soler. The two former top-50 prospects have seen their value slide precipitously over the last two seasons, but it’s certainly not time to give up on either yet. Alex Gordon and the newly-signed Billy Hamilton figure to take up two-thirds of the outfield slots, and team favorite Jorge Bonifacio is likely to contend at the other, but the non-contending Royals must find a way to get both of these players at least 400 plate appearances in 2019.

Marlins Claim Rosell Herrera

By Mark Polishuk | January 2, 2019 at 1:25pm CDT

The Marlins announced that they have claimed infielder/outfielder Rosell Herrera from the Royals. Herrera was designated for assignment by K.C. last month.

The 26-year-old Herrera made his Major League debut last season, hitting .234/.286/.317 over 302 combined plate appearances with the Reds and Royals, as Kansas City claimed him off waivers from Cincinnati last June. In this brief time in the big leagues, Herrera has already played all three outfield positions as well as time at second base and third base, so he offers quite a bit of versatility to a Marlins team that parted ways with Derek Dietrich earlier this winter. Herrera doesn’t have Dietrich’s upside at the plate, of course, so he could perhaps fit better as competition or perhaps a replacement for current utilityman Miguel Rojas.

Herrera has been added to Miami’s 40-man roster, giving the Marlins a full 40-man complement.

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