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Dodgers Decline Club Option On Jimmy Nelson

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The Dodgers announced that they have declined their 2023 club option on right-hander Jimmy Nelson. They could have retained him at a $1.1MM salary but will instead let him return to the open market. There was no buyout attached to the option.

Nelson spent many years as a starter with the Brewers before being derailed by injuries. He missed the 2018 and 2020 seasons entirely and only threw 22 innings in 2019, putting up a 6.95 ERA in that brief window when he was healthy.

However, he seemed to get things back on track with the Dodgers in 2021. He made 28 appearances that season, throwing 29 innings with a 1.86 ERA. He walked 11.9% of batters faced but struck out 37.9% of them, well above that year’s 24% average for relievers. Unfortunately, that strong bounceback season was cut short when Nelson required Tommy John and flexor repair surgery in August.

Despite the surgery, the Dodgers re-signed him for the 2022 campaign, knowing he was unlikely to contribute that season. He received a league-minimum $700K salary while rehabbing, with the Dodgers able to trigger the $1.1MM option for 2023. The league minimum salary is jumping to $720K next year, meaning that $1.1MM figure is only $380K above. For a team that’s typically among the biggest spenders in the league, that would be a small risk to take on a pitcher who was so dominant when last healthy. However, the club has opted not to take that chance.

There’s no financial risk here for the Dodgers, since there is no buyout on the option. Their only risk is losing Nelson to a rival team now that he has the ability to pursue offers from all 29 other clubs. Though it’s also possible that he and the club could reconnect on another deal.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: National League

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In the past two days, MLBTR has taken a look at how players with contractual options could impact the upcoming free agent class. We looked at players with vesting provisions on Tuesday before turning our attention to American League players under control via team options yesterday. Today, we’ll check in on their National League counterparts.

Braves

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

  • John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

  • Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.

Dodgers Re-Sign Jimmy Nelson

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MARCH 17: Nelson receives a $700K salary in 2022, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (on Twitter). The club option is valued at $1.1MM and contains possible performance bonuses.

MARCH 15: Right-hander Jimmy Nelson appears to be back with the Dodgers, as he’s in their clubhouse this morning, tweets Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic tweets that a locker for Nelson is set up. Nelson signed a one-year, Major League contract with a club option that covers the 2023 season, tweets Ardaya.

It’s not clear whether Nelson, a CAA client, is back on a minor league deal or whether he inked a big league deal. If it’s the latter, it’d presumably grant the Dodgers control over Nelson’s 2023  season as well, given that he’s unlikely to pitch for most of the current season. Nelson had Tommy John and flexor repair surgery last August, which should sideline him for the vast majority or the entirety of the upcoming 2022 season.

When healthy, Nelson was a powerhouse in the L.A. bullpen. In 29 innings of relief, Nelson posted a 1.86 ERA while punching out 37.9% of the 116 batters he faced. The former Brewers righty averaged 94 mph on his heater and logged a hefty 14.9% swinging-strike rate during that brief run. It was a notable turnaround from an ugly 2019 campaign that saw Nelson post a near-7.00 ERA in a similar sample of innings while attempting to mend from a notable injury.

Early in his career, Nelson looked well on his way to establishing himself as a key member of the rotation in Milwaukee. From 2015-17, he made 91 starts, tallied 532 innings and notched a collective 4.08 earned run average. Nelson’s 2017 season, in particular, had the makings of a potential high-end starter. In 175 1/3 frames that year, Nelson posted a 3.49 ERA with a big 27.3% strikeout rate against a tiny 6.6% walk rate.

Unfortunately, however, Nelson suffered a torn labrum and a partially torn rotator cuff while sliding into second base in an early September game during that 2017 season. He underwent surgery to repair that shoulder — a procedure that wiped out not only his final month of the ’17 season but his entire 2018 campaign. Nelson returned to the Brewers in 2019 but was limited to just 22 innings by an elbow injury. Milwaukee non-tendered him following the season.

It’s a disheartening sequence of major injuries that have clearly derailed the career of a highly talented hurler. Nelson will spend the bulk of the 2022 season rehabbing, but by the time he makes it back to the mound, he’ll be 33 years old with just 51 total MLB innings under his belt since injuring that shoulder as a 28-year-old. Hopefully, Nelson will be able to put the ongoing arm issues behind him, as it’s clear that when he’s healthy enough to take the hill, he can be an impact part of a big league bullpen.

Dodgers Activate Trea Turner; Jimmy Nelson To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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The Dodgers announced they’ve reinstated Trea Turner from the COVID-19 injured list. He’s not in tonight’s starting lineup, but he could make his team debut off the bench this evening. Reliever Victor González has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 4, with right knee inflammation to open active roster space. To create 40-man roster space, the team has transferred righty Jimmy Nelson to the 60-day injured list. Nelson will undergo Tommy John surgery and a right flexor tendon repair procedure.

Whether tonight or tomorrow, Turner is soon to get into his first game as a Dodger. The All-Star shortstop came over alongside Max Scherzer last week as part of deadline season’s top blockbuster. The 28-year-old had tested positive for COVID-19 shortly before the trade, though, so he’s remained in isolation until today.

Turner adds another elite player to a lineup already chock-full of stars. He’s hitting .322/.369/.521 with eighteen home runs across 420 plate appearances, his second consecutive season of elite offensive output. One of the game’s best baserunners, Turner has also swiped 21 bags, all while playing average or better defense at shortstop. The whole package makes Turner one of the sport’s most valuable position players, although he seems likely to slide over to second base in deference to Corey Seager in L.A. Wherever he plays, Turner should be a massive boon to a Dodger club that trails the league-best Giants by four games in the NL West.

It’s not all positive news on the health front for the Dodgers with Nelson undergoing surgery. While the club didn’t provide a timetable for his return beyond ruling him out for the rest of this season, it seems likely he’ll miss the entire 2022 campaign rehabbing. It’s crushing news for a respected, high-quality pitcher who has been plagued by a series of long-term health issues in recent seasons.

Nelson looked like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter after a stellar 2017 season with the Brewers. A shoulder injury cost him the entire 2018 campaign, though. That kept him out for a good chunk of the 2019 season too, with an elbow injury costing him another month that year. Nelson was ineffective when he was healthy enough to pitch, and Milwaukee non-tendered him at the end of that season.

The Dodgers signed Nelson during the 2019-20 offseason, but a July back surgery prevented him from pitching all year. Los Angeles brought Nelson back on a minor league deal to work in relief, and he made good on his end of that agreement. The 32-year-old pitched to a sterling 1.86 ERA over 29 frames this year, emerging as a potential high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. Unfortunately, he landed on the IL with elbow inflammation on Wednesday. That issue apparently requires surgical repair.

Nelson will hit free agency at the end of this season. He could field some multi-year offers from teams with an eye toward the 2023 campaign. Alternatively, Nelson could rehab the injury on his own and look to market himself to clubs after he has returned to health. Either way, it’s a devastating turn of events for a player who has already overcome more than his fair share of health issues.

Dodgers Place Mookie Betts On 10-Day Injured List

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Mookie Betts has been placed on the Dodgers’ 10-day injured list due to right hip inflammation, the team announced.  In the corresponding move, right-hander Jimmy Nelson was activated from his own 10-day IL stint to take Betts’ spot on the active roster.

There was no mention made of a retroactive placement date, which is somewhat curious since Betts hasn’t played since July 19.  Teams are allowed up to three days of back-dating on IL placements, so Betts would have been eligible to return to action in a week’s time.  Instead, the star outfielder is now set to miss 10 full days beginning today.

Manager Dave Roberts said last week that Betts was dealing with multiple “nagging” injuries beyond just his hip, so it could be that this 10-day break might be necessary to get Betts fully healed up and ready for the stretch drive.  Betts has also missed a couple of games this year with such maladies as a sore shoulder and a sore back, though this represents his first actual IL placement since a minimal 10-day stint in 2018.

After a slow start to the season by his standards, Betts is now back producing at his usual superstar level.  The outfielder has 14 home runs and a .270/.374/.502 slash line in 374 plate appearances, and his absence will create another notable gap in the L.A. lineup.  Corey Seager and Gavin Lux are also on the injured list, and while Cody Bellinger is dealing with a balky hamstring.  Pitching is thought to be the Dodgers’ primary focus at the trade deadline, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the club added another bat to the bench.

Nelson’s return will provide some reinforcement to the bullpen, as the righty missed a little over two weeks due to a back strain.  Nelson had another 10-day IL trip earlier this year, but health aside, it has been a very successful comeback year.  After missing the entire 2020 season due to back surgery, Nelson has become a full-time relief pitcher and delivered a 2.00 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 27 innings.

The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Pitchers

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We took a look last week at some of the minor league pacts that have paid the most dividends, focusing in on position players in both leagues. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of offense throughout baseball as a whole at the moment, there are even more success stories on the pitching side of the coin. Some of these are products of small sample size, particularly for the many relievers on the list, but at least for our initial check-in on this subject, the early returns have been strong.

  1. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: We’re nearing Memorial Day weekend, and Kennedy is tied for the American League lead in saves — just as everyone expected! The 36-year-old righty isn’t just scraping by and narrowly escaping in a bunch of three-run leads, though. He’s tallied 19 1/3 innings and allowed just four runs, all while recording a terrific 31.1 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 5.4 percent walk rate. If Texas remains near the bottom of the AL West standings, he’ll be an appealing trade target for bullpen-needy clubs.
  2. Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Mariners: A quality setup man with the 2017-18 Marlins, Steckenrider’s time in Miami was derailed by injuries — most notably a 2019 flexor strain. He looks to be back on track in his new surroundings, however, having tossed 18 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and an 11.1 percent walk rate. The walks are a bit elevated, but he’s helped to combat that with a career-best 54 percent ground-ball mark. The Mariners (or another club) could control Steckenrider through 2023 via arbitration as well, which only adds to the value.
  3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Dodgers:  The Dodgers just placed Nelson on the injured list due to a forearm issue, so there are (once again) some obvious health question marks with Nelson. There’s no ignoring how effective he’s been thus far, however. Nelson’s 39.1 percent strikeout rate is the ninth-best among all MLB relievers, and he’s paired that with a pristine 2.41 ERA. Like Shaw, he’s walked too many batters (13 percent), but the former Brewers ace has shown high-leverage, late-inning potential with L.A.
  4. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: Shaw was an iron man in the Cleveland ’pen but flopped in Colorado after signing a three-year, $27MM contract going into 2018. Back in his old stomping grounds, he’s tallied 19 innings with a pristine 1.42 ERA. The 33-year-old has issued 13 walks, so he’ll need to cut back on the free passes if he hopes to continue this success, but Shaw’s strikeout and ground-ball percentages are among the best of his career (29.3 percent, 57.5 percent, respectively).
  5. Lucas Luetge, LHP, Yankees: Luetge’s last MLB appearance prior to his Yankees debut came with the 2015 Mariners. The now-34-year-old southpaw signed minor league deals with five organizations before making it back to the show, which is remarkable in and of itself. That he’s been one of the Yankees’ best relievers, however, makes his story all the more incredible. Luetge, who entered 2021 with all of 89 MLB frames under his belt, has a 2.95 ERA and a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings for the Yankees thus far. Considering the injuries to Zack Britton and Darren O’Day, Luetge’s unexpected contributions have been a godsend. If he can keep this up, he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and controllable through the 2024 season.
  6. Hyeon-jong Yang, LHP, Rangers: Yang, a former KBO MVP, could’ve returned to that league on a guaranteed deal but refused to give up on his aspirations of playing in the Majors, even if it meant taking a non-guaranteed pact. He’s 21 1/3 innings into the realization of that lifelong goal, and the Rangers are no doubt pleased with their decision. Yang, 33, opened the season with the Rangers’ alternate site group but had his contract selected in late April. He now owns a 3.38 ERA, and while his pedestrian strikeout and walk rates might point to some possible regression, he’s induced plenty of weak contact (average 87.4 mph exit velocity, just a 13.1 percent line-drive rate). An 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate suggests there could be more K’s to come, as well.
  7. Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Rockies: Gonzalez’s numbers don’t stand out that much, but he’s eating innings and delivering roughly league-average run-prevention numbers when adjusting for his home park (102 ERA+, 99 ERA-). Through nine appearances, seven of them starts, Gonzalez is carrying a 4.54 ERA. He’s totaled 41 2/3 innings for a Rockies club that has gone the whole season without lefty Kyle Freeland. Gonzalez has rattled off consecutive quality starts and helped the Rox get through the first two months of the season. The secondary marks aren’t great, but average innings have value — especially in 2021 when teams are so conscientious about their pitchers’ workloads.
  8. Nabil Crismatt, RHP, Padres: Crismatt had just 8 1/3 innings of MLB experience (all with the 2020 Cardinals) when he arrived in Padres camp this spring. He’s more than doubled that total in 2021 already, pitching 17 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball with a hefty 52.2 percent grounder rate. Crismatt is an oddity in today’s game, sitting under 89 mph with a fastball that is only seldom used due to the fact that he throws his changeup at a whopping 46.5 percent clip. It’s weird, but so far — it’s worked.
  9. Anthony Bender, RHP, Marlins: A 26-year-old rookie who never pitched above Double-A with the Royals or Brewers before joining the Marlins on a minor league deal this winter, Bender is sitting 97.4 mph with his heater and has tossed 8 2/3 shutout innings to open his career. He’s whiffed 36.7 percent of his opponents against a 3.3 percent walk rate. Small sample? Sure, but Bender also rattled off 8 1/3 shutout frames during Spring Training, too. Not bad for a guy who posted a 5.48 ERA with the independent American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen in 2020.
  10. Heath Hembree, RHP, Reds:  After a rough 2020 season, Hembree has bounced back early in 2021. His 4.15 ERA through 13 frames is nothing special, but his strikeout rate is sitting at a career-high 33.3 percent after plummeting in 2020. His 6.3 percent walk rate is a career-best, and his 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t far off from his peak years in Boston. Hembree’s velocity is also up to 95.2 mph after dipping to 93.9 mph in 2019-20. It’s early, but those are some encouraging indicators.
  11. Zack Littell, RHP, Giants: Littell hasn’t spent much time with the Giants yet, but he’s chucked 10 2/3 innings and held opponents to just one run on eight hits and three walks with nine punchouts. His 94.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-high, as is his 48.3 percent grounder rate. The former Twins righty only has a year of big league service and could be controllable for several years if he figures it out in San Francisco.
  12. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Athletics: It’s hard to believe Guerra just turned 32, given that he was one of the pieces traded from the Mets to the Twins way back in 2008’s Johan Santana trade. He’s bounced around the league in journeyman style but is enjoying a nice run with the A’s to kick off the ’21 season. In 20 2/3 frames, Guerra has a 3.92 ERA with a pedestrian K-BB% but intriguing levels of weak contact induced.
  13. JT Chargois, RHP, Mariners: Like Littell, Chargois hasn’t seen much time in the bigs yet, but he’s sporting a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings for Seattle. He’s had multiple chances with the Twins and Dodgers in recent years but never found much consistency. Chargois also mustered only a 5.81 ERA pitching for Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2020. Still, it’s a nice start to his 2021 season.
  14. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Brewers: The right-hander, who’ll turn 33 this week, has hurled 17 1/3 innings so far in Milwaukee and pitched to a 4.15 ERA but with a more impressive 17-to-3 K/BB mark. As with many relievers early in a given season, the bulk of the damage against Boxberger came in one appearance (against the Cardinals). He’s been unscored upon in 16 of his 19 outings so far in 2021.
  15. Ervin Santana, RHP, Royals: The Royals love their reunions more than any team in baseball, and Santana is somewhat improbably back to “smelling baseball,” as he likes to say, for a second stint in Kansas City. He’s only allowed four runs in 15 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA), but he’s also only picked up eight strikeouts against four walks. His fastball is sitting 93 mph again after living at 89-90 in 2018-19, but the red flags are plentiful: 13.1 percent strikeout rate, 91 percent strand rate, .213 BABIP, 45 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate.
  16. Paolo Espino, RHP, Nationals: The Nats quietly re-signed the now 34-year-old Espino before the calendar even flipped to November last year. So far, it’s been a worthwhile reunion, as he’s held opponents to four runs on nine hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in 14 innings (2.57 ERA). Espino won’t keep this up if he can’t miss some more bats and/or induce far more grounders, however. He’s currently benefiting from a .175 BABIP and an 83.3 percent strand rate, while his 26.6 percent grounder rate will make it to limit home runs. Still, the Nats have 14 innings of decent results to show for the deal.

As with the position players, some of these strong starts will fade. There are a few at the back of the list that look particularly difficult to sustain, but there also look to be some genuine bargains unearthed among this group. Some will likely result in trades (Kennedy), but it’d make for a fun story to follow should any of the controllable arms (e.g. Bender, Crismatt) ultimately emerge as long-term pieces for the clubs who gave them their best career opportunities to date.

Dodgers Place Jimmy Nelson On 10-Day Injured List, Recall Phil Bickford

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The Dodgers have placed Jimmy Nelson on the injured list with right forearm inflammation, per the team. Phil Bickford has been recalled to take his roster spot. Bickford was only recently claimed off waivers from the Brewers.

A starter for most of his career, Nelson has transitioned to a new role this season, and a valuable one at that. He has tossed 18 2/3 inning in 16 appearances with a 2.41 ERA/1.86 FIP for the Dodgers. Though he has induced just a 37.1 percent groundball rate and walked more batters than they’d like with a 14.3 percent walk rate, Nelson has posted a career-best 39 percent strikeout rate.

Bickford was twice made a first round pick, first coming out of high school in 2013 and then again as the 18th overall pick of the Giants in 2015. The Brewers acquired him in 2016 along with Andrew Susac for lefty Will Smith. He made just one appearance with the Brewers in 2020 and one again in 2021. In his last full season of work, Bickford posted a 2.48 ERA across 32 2/3 innings during his second stint in High-A.

Dodgers Select Jimmy Nelson

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Right-hander Jimmy Nelson has made the Dodgers’ roster, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports. With Nelson joining the team, it sent righty Tommy Kahnle, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list. The Dodgers also reassigned infielder Sheldon Neuse to minor league camp.

Nelson is in his second year with the Dodgers, who signed him to a $1.25MM guarantee going into 2020, but the former Brewer didn’t pitch at all last season after undergoing back surgery. It was the latest unfortunate injury for Nelson, whose career has gone off track since what looked like a breakout effort in 2017. Nelson suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder late that year, sat out all of the next season and then mustered just 22 innings of 6.95 ERA ball in 2019.

Because of his recent misfortune, the Dodgers declined Nelson’s $2MM option for this year. They brought him back on a minor league contract after that, though, and he’ll now open the season in their bullpen. The 31-year-old earned a spot with seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball and nine strikeouts against one walk this spring.

Dodgers Agree To Minor League Deals With Morrow, Nelson, Stewart, Pazos

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6:37pm: The Dodgers also have minors deals with righties Jimmy Nelson and Brock Stewart and lefty James Pazos (along with the previously reported Carlos Asuaje), per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. They’re all invited to big league camp, according to Gurnick.

The oft-injured Nelson didn’t pitch at all last season after undergoing back surgery, and the Dodgers then declined his $2MM club option for 2021. Stewart was a 2014 Dodgers sixth-rounder who appeared in the majors with the team from 2016-19, but it lost him to the Blue Jays via waivers in the last of those seasons. He struggled in Toronto that year and hasn’t pitched in the majors since then. The 29-year-old Pazos was terrific with Seattle and Colorado from 2018-19, but the Rockies designated him for assignment after a disastrous 2020.

6:00pm: The Dodgers and right-handed reliever Brandon Morrow have agreed to a minor league contract, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets.

This will be the second Dodgers stint for Morrow, who resurrected his career during his previous run in Los Angeles. After dealing with a slew of injuries with a few different teams, Morrow joined the Dodgers on a minors pact heading into the 2017 season. It proved to be a brilliant decision by the Dodgers, as Morrow made his way to the majors and fired 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA/1.55 FIP ball with 10.31 K/9 and 1.85 BB/9. His performance helped the team to a National League pennant.

After the Dodgers bowed out in the World Series to the Astros, Morrow left Los Angeles in favor of a two-year, $21MM contract with the Cubs during free agency. While Morrow did give the Cubs excellent production as their closer in the first season of the deal, back problems held him to 30 2/3 frames and prevented him from pitching beyond July 15, 2018.

The 36-year-old Morrow, unfortunately, still has not returned to a big league mound since then. He missed all of 2019 with elbow troubles and didn’t make it back to the Cubs last year after inking a minors deal.

Dodgers Decline Jimmy Nelson’s Option

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The Dodgers have declined right-hander Jimmy Nelson’s $2MM club option for 2021, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. He’ll receive a buyout worth $500K.

Nelson, who debuted with the Brewers in 2013, looked like a budding star for the team in 2017. He threw 175 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/3.05 FIP ball with 10.21 K/9 and 2.46 BB/9 that year, but his season ended prematurely after he suffered a serious shoulder injury. Nelson hasn’t been the same since.

Nelson returned to throw 22 ineffective innings in his final season with the Brewers in 2019, and then the big-spending Dodgers took a low-cost chance on him over the winter with a $1.25MM guarantee. The move didn’t work out for the Dodgers, as Nelson was unable to contribute to their title-winning season at all after undergoing back surgery in the first week of July. The 31-year-old hasn’t pitched in the majors since Sept. 29, 2019.

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