Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Rockies are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Wilton Lopez (4.038): $2.2MM
- Juan Nicasio (2.124, Super Two): $1.7MM
- Mitchell Boggs (4.007): $1.5MM
- Josh Outman (4.036): $1.4MM
- Jonathan Herrera (4.001): $1.2MM
- Manny Corpas (5.125): $1MM
Lopez took a step back in 2013, but at $2.2MM the Rockies are still expected to retain him. Nicasio made 31 starts this year, and while he wasn't great, he figures to stick around. Outman and Herrera both had solid campaigns and are secure.
Boggs began the season as the Cardinals' interim closer in the wake of Jason Motte's injury, but was optioned to Triple-A by May. He bounced up and down after that, and was traded to the Rockies in July for international bonus money. Boggs struggled at Triple-A for the Rockies and made only nine appearances with the big club. "I would like for that to be here because I feel it’s a good fit," Boggs said of the Rockies and returning to a late inning role, to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in September. Boggs is no sure thing to be tendered, but given his low projected salary and past success, I lean toward the Rockies giving him another look next year.
Corpas, 30, has served as the Rockies' closer at various times in his career and found his way back to the organization on a minor league deal in January. He wound up making 31 appearances for the big club, but will probably be deemed expendable.
Assuming Lopez, Nicasio, Boggs, Outman, and Herrera are tendered contracts, the Rockies are looking at an estimated $8MM for five arbitration eligible players.
