Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Red Sox conclude our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows. An explanation of our service time format: 5.062 means five years and 62 days. 172 days of service is equal to one year.
- Andrew Bailey (5.000): $4.3MM
- Andrew Miller (5.062): $1.9MM
- Franklin Morales (5.007): $1.8MM
- Mike Carp (3.010): $1.3MM
- Junichi Tazawa (3.086): $1.1MM
Bailey's time in Boston did not go well. He needed thumb surgery early in 2012, making his season debut in mid-August and pitching poorly. The Red Sox retained him through arbitration for 2013, but also acquired Joel Hanrahan to close. Bailey took over as closer when Hanrahan hit the DL for a hamstring injury, and was still the closer after missing time himself for a biceps injury. Bailey lost the ninth inning job in mid-June due to poor performance, and in July ended up needing season-ending shoulder surgery. It seems that Bailey will miss much of the 2014 season as he recovers, so he's certain to be non-tendered by Boston.
Miller had a solid 2012 campaign for the Red Sox and started off acceptably this year, until enduring a July foot injury that required season-ending surgery. He expects to be ready for Spring Training, and his price tag is palatable for a situational lefty. Tazawa was excellent in the regular season and playoffs, and will have a prominent role in next year's bullpen.
The Red Sox have Craig Breslow under contract, so along with Miller, Morales represents a potential third southpaw in next year's bullpen. Morales began the season on the DL for a back injury, and then strained a pectoral muscle in late April. The Red Sox stretched him out as a starter as he rehabbed the injury, but his May 30th season debut was his only start of the season. A shoulder injury put him back on the DL in late June, from which he returned in mid-August. He pitched in the Division Series and ALCS but was not used in the World Series despite being on the roster. It's hard to give up on a 28-year-old southpaw who throws 93-94 miles per hour, and Morales is cheap enough that the Red Sox might keep him around for 2014 or at least find a trade partner for him this winter.
Carp was designated for assignment by the Mariners in February, and after interest from the Twins, Astros, Brewers, the Red Sox acquired him, eventually just sending cash in return. Carp, a left-handed hitter, faced righties in 88% of his plate appearances and authored an excellent overall line of .296/.362/.523. The Red Sox will be happy to have him as part of next year's bench.
Assuming the Red Sox tender contracts to Miller, Morales, Carp, and Tazawa, they're looking at an estimated $6.1MM for four arbitration eligible players.