Players will change hands in August, but the path to a deal is trickier. Last year, the names moved included established big leaguers like Alex Rios, Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, David DeJesus, Kurt Suzuki, Michael Morse, and John Axford.
The Phillies have fielded a good bit of criticism from those (myself included) who feel that the team has lacked a strategy for divesting themselves of some aging veterans and beginning to move the club forward. But, it is equally clear that the team should have ample opportunity to put together deals over the coming month. Though the players available to be brought back in return could potentially be somewhat limited by the August trade rules, that is less of a barrier for the younger talent that Philly will likely pursue. And perhaps the team will find itself with a bit more leverage relative to the rest of the market since it still holds all its chips (and since injuries or other developments can always intervene to increase need).
Philadelphia has reportedly already sought waivers on essentially all of the veterans that it could consider dealing. It seems likely that most will clear waivers completely, and even those that might not (e.g., Cole Hamels) could be claimed by teams that would be interested in realistically discussing a trade. Even after his injury took Cliff Lee out of the running, the club has plenty of pieces that would be great adds for contenders — if they can navigate the tricky vesting clauses, buyouts, and no-trade provisions that lie within many players’ contracts.
I thought it would be interesting to gauge the sentiment of MLBTR readers as to how active embattled Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will be in the weeks to come. Will he surprise everyone and aggressively move several players? Or continue to hold onto his veterans unless he is overwhelmed by an offer?
Your options for filling out the poll (honor system applies!):
1) Select “No Player Will Be Traded”
— OR —
2) Select One Or More Player(s) Who You Think Are Likely To Be Traded
If Matt Garza’s oblique tweak is serious, AJ Burnett seems like a possible target for the Brewers.
no way he goes that far away from his family. Wife refuses to fly
I wonder if he’d consider going farther away if it’s just going to be 1-2 months (plus possible postseason).
Banking on him turning down the 7.5 player option I guess?
The Diamondbacks could use Howard, but I highly, highly doubt they would trade for him.
Huh? I understand Goldy is out for the year, but where does he play next year? He’s got kind of a big deal…
Where does he play next year? With the BayBears.
Okay. I’m sure the DBacks would love paying him 25 million to do that.
You’re right. That’s why they have Cody Ross
KC could use him now…MO native… contract next year is an issue…Hosmer is done for the year.
I read that wrong. Thought you said “He’s kind of a big deal” and thought you were referencing Anchorman.
To do what? A better player, Goldschmidt, is signed until 2018. If he keels over and dies then a better player than Howard, Trumbo, moves to first.
They could use Howard to work some concession stands at the ballpark. Selling hotdogs, beers, etc…they ran kind of short this year. Kevin Towers will trade you Archie Bradley for him.
Not to defend Howard, but Trumbo is terrible. He’s not only played much worse than Howard this season, but he racked up an incredible -1.3 rWAR in only 39 games this season.
I think Hernandez and Bastardo are gone, as well as Kendrick. They are all cheap and can be valuable on a contender. AJ and Byrd may get claimed, but knowing Phillies stance, they won’t let them go for nothing. Hamels definitely will not pass Dodgers, Yanks, or Red Sox.
Which poses an interesting question, if you’re a contender like Giants, do you put in a claim for some players to block other teams knowing the Phillies will not just let them go for nothing? Of course, this does not apply to Papelbon and Howard who Phillies would just award the claiming team his rights? Or maybe Seattle claims Byrd knowing then that no one else can get him and Byrd won’t waive his NTC to go there…
It’ll be interesting, but I don’t think any major moves are going to happen within the next couple days…
I’m hoping Fausto keeps pitching well so he can get the hook. Agree that Bastardo is out of here. Maybe he wont pucker in the clutch again without his name on the trading block and as many scouts on hand to watch him implode? I don’t think they do anything with Hamels other than let someoen kick the tires before Ruben asks for their whole farm in return. Kendrick is an interesting piece too. I think he may rebound somewhere else with better coaching, especially if a team moves him back to middle relief.
I said on an earlier post that any contender on Burnett’s no-trade list should be claiming him immediately in order to block their wild-card rivals
I don’t think Bastardo will clear waivers, so whether he goes will depend on the team that claims him and what they can and will offer.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that both the Giants and Dodgers put a claim in on Hamels; no way he gets to the AL. Same with Byrd, though somewhat less likely. My guess is that the Pittsburgh would claim him, with Atlanta and Milwaukee being wild cards there too.
Burnett seems like a bigger question mark. It’s risky to claim him because the Phillies might let him go and he’s basically guaranteed $7.5 million next season.
Realistically, RA is very tough to deal with an unlikely to “give” away anyone, although if someone actually does claim Howard, he should just give thanks. Given how he valued all his pieces, I can’t see how a Papelbon doesn’t get pulled back unless he gets a considerable return. The real complications, as Jeff points out, are all the trap doors in those contracts. Burnett could be moved, and for a decent return, if RA were willing to eat some money. But, he’s the type of guy who has to “win” every deal, and it’s not clear to me that he’s capable of doing that.
I would be utterly shocked if either Howard or Papelbon were claimed. I’d say that’s at least plausible for all the other guys, though many will probably get through, but those two deals have way too much $$$ left.
I think the internet would explode if someone claimed even Papelbon (let alone Howard) and the Phils pulled him back. But like I said, doubt that will come to pass.
I agree on Howard–it isn’t just that the internet would explode, it’s that the GM who made that move would probably be ending his career in baseball. Papelbon is a different fish. I think it’s very unlikely he would be claimed, but given the perfect combination of circumstances, a disabling injury (like a TJ) to a closer for a contending team, it’s at least possible.
Yeah, true, there’s a theoretical chance on Papelbon if the right team just flat-out lost its closer. But that would have to happen, like, tonight since he hit the wire yesterday.
Still, if I’m the relevant GM in that scenario, I’m passing and trying to work out a deal after he clears every other team.
doesn’t that depend on cost? swapping younger talent in return for salary relief? and you would still be in competition with other teams if they were in for trading purposes if not for claiming ones.
if Pap were claimed on waivers and the Phils flat-agreed to award the claim, is Pap able to block the transaction with his “no-trade clause”?
Yes. He has a 17-team clause. You’d think he’d be okay with going to a contender, though he had some pretty strong comments the other day about demanding to be the closer, so I think he might try to wrangle some assurances.
Jeff, what’s the difference for Papelbon if this were a year later, and the Phillies, having run out of full length mirrors for Papelbon to look at himself in, just decides to DFA and then release him. The no trade doesn’t apply to a normal waiver claim, right?
I believe it does. His rights cannot be transferred to another team in the manner defined by the clause without his consent. I’m not exactly sure how that is carried out on a practical basis though (can a team on the no-trade list not make a claim? get consent first? get consent after being awarded the claim?).
Okay.. I know Howard is having a bad year – on a horrible contract – but say the Phillies are willing to eat 50/60 of the 70 million remaining on his contract – He’d be the 3rd best DH right now… His HR and RBI’s are topped only by V-Mart and Big Poppi, and a lot of the DH’s will be free agents in the off-season. The average DH’s salary is between 7.5 million and 15.5 million. If a team took him on a 7.5-10 million player – wouldn’t that be an upgrade for a lot of those AL teams?
Rangers need a DH
Mariners – Morales is a FA (and on a HORRIBLE year)
Yankees
Orioles – Cruz is a FA
White Sox – Dunn is a FA
Blue Jays
Royals – Butler is a FA
Angels
There are teams that would actually be better with a “cheap” Howard
I said I’d be shocked if he was claimed (i.e., some team put itself in line to take on his whole contract). I’d be surprised if he’s traded during this season (not shocked) just b/c of the market and his performance, but I think he could ultimately be dealt.
There are teams that could use him, if not now then for next season. I agree with that. But he has been one of the worst regular hitters in baseball this year — his home runs and RBI don’t tell the whole story. And at this point, $7.5-10MM is too much for him, I think, certainly over multiple years.
Honor system on the internet? You live life dangerously, Jeff.
I’m torn between Byrd/Hernandez/Bastardo (who probably should be the ones traded) and None (because I’m not sure RAJ knows what a trade is)
I did say it was an honor system, but I am actually going to check IP addresses and track down anyone who dared disobey the poll’s parameters.
The penalty will be that said person(s) will only be able to access MLBTR’s coverage of the Phillies.
Have some compassion Jeff. No one deserves that.
It would seem like this team should have been rebuilt about two years ago. Now RAJ is between a rock and a hard place because those peripheral pieces he could have traded that would have brought back some sort of return are hurt or not worth as much as they once were. He may have to do something to package a less desirable player or players with Hamels, which would hurt the return but clear some roster space for free agents next season. The Phillies could always hit the international free agent market hard next year and should get a protected pick in the draft. There isn’t enough left on the team for this to be a quick rebuild.
Very similar to the position the White Sox have been in post 2005 WS
True, although the White Sox have had a few seasons where they’ve been in contention since then. They seem like they have gone full rebuild since, and have some nice pieces now. The Phillies could do the same and in less time because they have more money. I don’t know. It’s not a mess I would want to have to dig out of. They have about four untouchable contracts that have to be moved.
Yeah, they might have to eat contracts. Philly does seem like a popular place for players.
Why would they need to clear space for free agents next season? Only big money free agents they should be spending are young, international free agents. Otherwise, prospect returns are the key to any and all trades made.
Because they can afford to sign them. The Phillies have some solid players. The problem is they also have so many non-productive players on crippling contracts. If they could get rid of some of the horrible contracts and dead weight, they could replace them with some middle of the road players on more reasonable contracts. Their fanbase isn’t going to sit still for a 6 year rebuild. And they shouldn’t have to. Teams like the Marlins, Astros and White Sox rebuild on the cheap. Teams like the Red Sox and Phillies can afford a more costly rebuild.
Although I do agree they should hit the international free agent market hard. They won’t have as much competition for the younger kids when they are eligible because both the Red Sox and Yankees spent too much international bonus money this year. And maybe make a play for some Cuban defectors as they become available. And if you could trade Ryan Howard you wouldn’t get much back but some salary relief. You would still make the deal though. Because you could find a better hitter for less money on the free agent market. The same with Cliff Lee.
Who’s in the phillies pharmacy they are so willing to trade their pitchers?
Trying to break down the transaction thought process of Ruin Tomorrow Jr is like trying to understand a sociopach.
Exactly. I was gonna say, this would be pretty easy to predict in general if it wasn’t Amaro in charge. He often can’t see the forest for the trees and is so stubborn. So who the heck knows what he’s going to be willing to do.
Byrd is practically a given, I would say.
Burnett is close, and I think that they can find a taker for Papelbon.
I don’t think that Rollins or Utley will waive their no-trade clause.
As for the rest, I don’t think they’ll be able to trade them due to performance and/or salary reasons.
It is RAJ so how if there any possible answer other than none.
I could see someone like Bastardo going to the Dodgers (if not claimed by another team below them, and IF Amaro doesn’t ask for Corey Seager and Julio Urias and Sandy Koufax’s DNA in return.)
Given Koufax’s age, I bet RAJ will ask for him personally and then give him a 3 year extension.
With McCutchen on the DL and Byrd having already played a key role in the Bucs 2013 playoff run, Byrd to Bucs is obvious – but only if RAJ is realistic. Bucs are in great position to provide Phils with some inexpensive cost-controlled MLB-ready upgrades plus a lower (11-20) prospect. Lambo has been blocked (and is a LH bat Bucs don’t need), Pimintel is blocked from rotation this year, but is a candidate for next. Bucs might even part with Cumpton. If RAJ is asking for two top prospects for Byrd, Bucs will simply turn to Texas and go for Alex Rios, who’s more expensive, but Bucs have the cash to do that. Or settle for Willingham, who, despite his flaws, hits Brewers pitching pretty well.
I don’t think Rios would make it all the way to Pittsburgh on waivers. I don’t know why this isn’t getting more attention: Rios’s contract is reasonable enough that a borderline contender this season (like KC) could claim him with a focus primarily on next season. Willingham seems more reasonable, although the A’s might grab him before he gets to Pittsburgh.
The player on the Phillies you want right now is Roberto Hernandez. He has been great the last month. Heavy sinker moving at 93 mph. Whip around 1 the past month 2.85 era. Free agent next year.
The Phillies won’t trade Marlon Byrd unless they get fair value in return. He is currently one of the best outfielders in the NL on pace to hit 30 HR 100 RBI. Nice contract for next year $8 M. No way do you give him away unless you get knocked over with an offer.
Papelbon has also been pitching well. 93-94 mph but comes with enough baggage to fill up LAX.
Hamels is too good to trade.
Cliff Lee is on the DL.
Rollins and Utley have no trade clauses.
Howard and Kendrick dont have any value to another team imo
Bastardo and Burnett can be easily had but again not sure they have value to a contending team. bastardo has major control issues .Burnett has hernia and no trade clause
Byrd and Bastardo move. RAJ will over-reach on everyone else, again. Except for Howard. That contract is as toxic as strychnine laced with plutonium. Only way he goes is if the Phillies release him.