The Marlins made a 15-game improvement over last season’s 62 wins, but president of baseball operations Michael Hill explains to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald that the team still has work to do, as they’re not one of the 10 teams whose season has yet to end. A busy offseason figures to be ahead, and at the forefront of the action will be an attempt to sign Giancarlo Stanton to a long-term deal. Marlins president David Samson spoke candidly to Spencer about the team’s hopes, and concretely stated that Stanton will not be traded this offseason:
“He’s on this team [in 2015] either way. I can’t wait until after the season to sit down with Giancarlo and [agent] Joel Wolfe and talk about contract. We’re ready. We want him to be a Marlin well past his arbitration years. We hope that he believes in us and believes in Miami and believes in the direction of this team and recognizes that he has a chance to be the leader of a successful team for many years to come.”
Regardless of whether or not a long-term deal is reached, Stanton’s salary figures to soar after an MVP-worthy campaign in 2014. Before his season came to a frightening end after he was struck in the face by a Mike Fiers fastball, Stanton had compiled an electric .288/.395/.555 batting line with a league-leading 37 homers and a career-best 105 RBIs. That type of production will warrant a sizable raise from his $6.5MM salary in arbitration. Spencer speculates that Stanton’s salary could double to $13MM, which seems entirely plausible; last offseason, Chris Davis earned a record $7MM raise for a second-time arbitration player — the same juncture at which Stanton currently finds himself. Granted, Davis was coming off a 53-homer campaign with a gaudier RBI total — both figures that factor into the arbitration process — but his raise could provide a rough guideline for Stanton this winter.
With that raise in mind, it’s of particular importance that Spencer reports the team’s payroll is expected to clear $60MM this coming season. While that would still represent one of the lowest totals in baseball — if not the lowest — it also will allow the Marlins to accommodate a much larger salary for their prized slugger, as well as arbitration raises to others, such as Steve Cishek (second time), Henderson Alvarez (first time) and Nathan Eovaldi (first time).
If the Marlins aren’t able to secure Stanton on a multi-year deal, they’ll still look to upgrade elsewhere, most notably targeting upgrades at first base an in the starting rotation, according to Spencer. General manager Dan Jennings said that he would like to cut down on the club’s strikeouts and improve its two-strike approach. The Marlins whiffed at the third-highest rate in Major League Baseball and grounded into more double plays than any club but the Rangers this season.
Marlins first basemen hit a respectable, if unspectacular .254/.313/.402 this season. They’ll have a several names to choose from in a free agent class that will have numerous solid options such as Adam LaRoche, Mike Morse and Michael Cuddyer (who is, might I add, a former teammate of recently extended manager Mike Redmond). Pitching depth is one thing the Marlins already possess with the likes of Jose Fernandez (returning from Tommy John), Alvarez, Eovaldi, Jarred Cosart, Tom Koehler, Anthony DeSclafani, Andrew Heaney, Justin Nicolino, Brian Flynn and Brad Hand, but adding a veteran could allow them the flexibility to move some of those arms in a trade.
May be too little too late. Isn’t like the Angels who locked up Trout after 2 years, Stanton is only 2 years away from free agency now, and he will be 26. He should be pretty able to get a 10 year deal, $250MM+ guaranteed, with some opt outs if he keeps playing like this. Have the Marlins treated him good enough to get him to stay?
I think the emergence of Fernandez combined with some off-season spending could motivate Stanton to stay in Miami, assuming the Marlins make him a rich man.
I guess my problem with thinking Stanton signs with the Marlins are their fire sales after they go out in spend. Not really a trustworthy club to sign with IMO.
Definitely agree lol. Already went crazy and did this with the Blue Jays.
Even with Fernandez I don’t if it’s enough to keep him there.Even with him pitching great and everything else they keep losing every year. Not sure if he wants anything to do with that.
East Coast Bias
But even without Fernandez, they were in the hunt for a post season spot down to the last month.
And so were about 10 other teams. This is parity.
They were 11 games out of the last wildcard. That is more than Fernandez.
ummm no they were not they were 3 1/2 back closest
The Marlins have tried to sign Stanton to a long term deal a couple of times already. He wasn’t interested and if he’s smart, he’ll remain uninterested.
The problem with a Stanton extension is that while the Marlins can and will certainly make him rich, if they plan to keep payroll in the $60MM range, in order to pay him fairly he’s gonna go from 10% of the on-field payroll to 15% to 25%, etc. In order to accommodate Stanton, I think they’d essentially need to accept 2 budgets for themselves: The Giancarlo budget and The Rest of the Team. Like, $55MM for them, $15MM for him, etc.
An extension could look like this if market value is any indicator:
I think that’d be perfect. It pays Giancarlo market value, it provides financial flexibility for the Marlins and it allows Stanton to test the F.A. market with a solid 5+ years of elite production left in him.
Unless market value is now in the $25-30MM AAV range, in which case I throw my hands up because if it will really take a minimum of $250MM to sign this guy, he isn’t worth it to anybody. I mean, is Trout, or A-Rod, or King Felix, etc. really worth nearly $30MM PER SEASON?
Stanton is going to cost a lot more than 15 MM AAV, he will be earning around 15 MM a season by next year.
Out in Left Field
Isnt that what the calculations for arbitration they use here say? I may be wrong, but it looks like $14-15 million for 2015 to me.
If Trout keeps putting up 8+WAR seasons, he is definitely worth $30MM per.
According to Fangraphs Stanton was worth 33.1 million this year. War is going for over 5 million a point per the market value, so yes all of those players are worth 30 million a season. And so is Stanton.
edit: Not A-Rod though.
Per Fangraphs after the 2014 offseason: “And right now, I think we can say that the market has decided to pay roughly $6 million per win. Maybe it’s a little more, maybe a little less, but it’s in the $6 million range.”
So yes — not sure he’ll be a 6 WAR player every season but he’ll probably be around that 5-7 range for the next several years, so $25MM+ per year is about what you can expect in his non-arbitration years.
he’s making 21 next year not 30 lol
I would imagine he’d be worth about 6 million next year. I don’t think he’ll quite hit 25. Unless the Yankees pay him that much to go away.
yeah he has only had one year were he was injury free remember
No way he takes that little money. He probably makes at least $10MM next year, and $15MM in his last arb. He isn’t going to buy out 4 years of free agency for under $20MM per.
With 162 games, there is a massive amount of money to be made from having a star player.
Out in Left Field
According to what they use to calculate arbitration on here, Stanton is looking at closer to $14-15 million in 2015 and $20++ in 2016. I would bet that a deal of $14 next year, $20 in 2016 and 4 years of $30 million would get it done as long as the Marlins were willing to give him a full no trade clause. Do you think they will?
That isn’t market value in the slightest.
You work for the Marlins don’t you? And your last statement, why is someone worth 20 million but not 30 million what’s the cut off? Of “worth”
Any extension buying out FA years on Stanton will have to be $25mil a season.
Maybe if you include the two arbitration years. I don’t think he will sign away any free agent year this winter unless the Marlins give him five years beyond arbitration at 30 million per. Even then I don’t think he signs it. He’s two productive years away from a 300 million dollar deal.
6/100……….really? Have you looked at what players are getting? More like 7/200.
Out in Left Field
Lets start with your last question. Yes, No because he isnt earning that, Yes. And add Cabrera to that list of Yesses.
Now about what Stanton will earn in arbitration you don’t have to go any further than the calculations they use here to know that you are WAY, WAY below market value. They have him at about $14 million for 2015 and $22-24 million for 2016 in arbitration. So you are only about $14 million low for the next two seasons. Figure since he is further along in his service time than Trout, the lowest amount you would see Stanton signing is a deal around 6/160. There simply are not many other guys with his combination of power, average and defense. You can count them on 2 fingers. Remember too that he plays in a pitchers park. One of the most extreme pitchers parks in the game.
So throw your hands up. That is what its going to take to sign this guy.
“We want him to be a Marlin well past his arbitration years… until his contract gets into the massively backloaded portion and we trade him.”
As long as there are teams out there to bail them out, why not?
East Coast Bias
Exactly. Don’t hate the playa, hate the game. If the system exists, why not capitalize off of it.
That may come back to bite them. They keep Stanton for the 10 and 15 million years and then trade him once he hits the 30 and 40 million years. What if that’s too much to take for the teams that have the players to make a deal?
If Miami really wants to extend Stanton they should break from their organizational policy and offer him a full no trade clause.
Hopefully Stanton learned from the whole Jose Reyes thing
Maybe he really likes Canada.
Hopefully other teams learned from the whole Toronto Blue Jays thing.
But when would Jose Fernandez come back? Not before mid-season, right?
I just don’t see how this works. You figure Stanton is going to be making roughly $22-25MM per season by 2017. Operating even at $75 million in payroll, that’s just too much to spend on one person. You’re talking roughly 30% of your entire payroll on one player. At that point, you’d be forced to trade away players as they go into their final years of arbitration and not be able to spend much of anything in free agency or via the trade market. The team would be forced to operate solely on mid-level free agents and pre-arb players.
I don’t know how this gets done. If Stanton is going to arbitration, he’s going to make a very large amount of money. If he’s not extended, he will go through arbitration twice and make an even more enormous amount of money. The Marlins don’t like paying that much (and it’s probably unwise given the size of their over-all payroll)
Assuming he recovers and stays healthy, his maximum trade value is between now and the end of the coming season, because at least the trading team has a chance to offer him a QO when he actually reaches free agency. If he offers a home town discount to the Marlins, he’s got to get a no-trade clause, because otherwise he’s simply offering a home town discount to any team that trades for him (and upping his trade value). If the contract is back-loaded without the discount, then I suppose I would ask why he would bother, when he can just go through arbitration and then hit free agency and pick his team.
Out in Left Field
Isnt he from Los Angeles?
If miami wants him to stay people need to go to the ballpark. Its not the money he will get the money. The team might even end up being pretty good but who wants to play for 5 thousand fans especially if your a superstar
I completely disagree with you. I think it all about the Benjamins with the Marlins. If they were going to pay players then Buehrle, Reyes for sure would still be in Miami and maybe Josh Johnson would still be in Miami. I think they will be like the Rays whose fans won’t come to the park and they are a small market team.
No its not too late what are you talking about guy, this is the perfect off season to offer him contract and they can afford it i think since we did well throughout the year the attendance did well
Out in Left Field
The Marlins had the worst attendance in NL and 4th worst attendance in baseball. On the bright side, they sold 27 more tickets per game this season.
Out in Left Field
I saw this on another thread about Stanton a while back. Lets see what you all think.
#1 – The Marlins have the smallest revenue in baseball. About $150 million
#2 – Major league teams can spend about half of revenue on major league payroll.
#3 – The Marlins have a max of $75 million they can spend on payroll
#4 – Stanton will make 12-14MM in 2015, 22-25MM in 2016 and 30MM+ each year after that.
#5 – In 2015 Stanton alone would be earning 18+% of the Marlins max payroll. In 2016 its a third. Beyond that its 40%
So, with these facts, how can the Marlins afford him?