Prior to last night’s three inning, five run meltdown, Mike Petriello of FanGraphs examined why Royals ace James Shields has failed to live up to his “Big Game” moniker. In a detailed analysis, Petriello discovered Shields’ pitch selection has changed in the postseason and his cutter has been less effective. However, and as Petriello notes repeatedly, it’s hard to draw conclusions from such a small sample of innings.
- Shields is a popular subject today. WEEI.com’s Alex Speier wonders if Shields’ postseason non-performance will result in a lower free agent price tag. His reputation for October excellence is undeserved – he has the third highest ERA among 65 starters with 10 or more postseason starts. Speier does note that Barry Zito and Edwin Jackson signed rich free agent contracts following lousy postseason performances. The limited market for starters should keep Shields in demand, even if teams are wary of his late season contributions. If anything, this improves the positions of Max Scherzer and Jon Lester.
- The status of Rangers hitting instructor Dave Magadan and pitching coach Mike Maddux should be determined within the week, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Per comments from GM Jon Daniels, the future of Magadan and Maddux depends on comfort. New manager Jeff Banister will need to be “confident in how they see the game, in how they communicate with players and who he feels he can lean on.” Magadan is expected to meet with Banister today.
- After viewing MLBTR’s arbitration estimates for the Yankees, NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty takes a look at who might be tendered. Francisco Cervelli ($2.5MM projected salary), Ivan Nova ($3.3MM), Shawn Kelley ($2.5MM), David Phelps ($1.3MM), and Michael Pineda ($2.1MM) are the five he believes will return. Kuty believes David Huff ($700K) and Esmil Rogers ($1.9MM) may be non-tendered. My own opinion: while the Yankees may seek to replace Huff, there isn’t an urgent need to cut his near-league minimum salary. However, Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues notes that Huff could be the odd man out if New York needs a 40 man roster spot. Rogers does seem to be an easy non-tender choice.
Shields’ has thrown 277.1 inning this year, regular season and postseason combined; I think fatigue is playing a large roll in his recent postseason struggles.
How has that compared to previous postseasons? What did he toss the year the Rays went to the series?
254 IP in 2011, 207.2 IP in 2010 and 240 IP in 2008. While none of Shields postseason stats are stellar, 2011 and 2014 were his worst postseason performances.
So he’s getting up there. But how much can be attributed to a long lay off?
It’s about as long of a layoff as pitching in a 5 man rotation with a team off day in between your starts. So I don’t put too much stock into that.
Boston Globe says he had a kidney stone.
Who is really going to sign Lester and Scherzer? The data is out there that is a bad idea to overpay starters who are over 30.
Yankees? No, they are too old already. They need to get out from under bad contracts as it is. You would think they would be fiscally responsible for the next couple of years while they are still rebuilding
Red Sox? No. It is against their philosophy. They still do not even have 1 $20MM AAV player.
Dodgers? No. Not with Friedman.
TIgers? No. They are looking like they will just go with Price replacing Scherzer.
So who will sign them? Maybe ONE mystery team signs one of them.. but I am not sure both will get the deal they are looking for.
To the Yankees rebuilding means spending a quarter of a billion dollars on big name free agents.
Didn’t work this past year so I don’t see them trying it again.
If at first you don’t succeed, try try again!
Well what they can try again is to hit better with RISP and get more clutch hitting. They hit .199 with RISP & 2 out.
Because they lost Robinson Cano.
It worked in 2009. It would have worked with Cano in 2014
The Yankee method works. The rest of baseball is their farm system.
Yep its called the money pit method. Step one use a bulldozer to push several pallets of one hundred dollar bills into a pit, Step two repeat until WS victory is achieved.
Something the Angels haven’t done yet since their 3 big signings? I’m sure they didn’t sign Pujols, CJ Wilson and Hamiton and expect to have Zero playoff wins in that 3+ year span so far.
Not to mention the Mike Trout large extension, but of course, he’s certainly going to live up to that.
See the Angels failed to follow step 2 properly. You have to keep pushing money into the pit, this is the Yankees specialty.
So have the Yankees, though it’s only been 1 year (I’m talking about since their last big spending spree which obviously was last offseason).
Ellsbury was signed before Cano, and the Tanaka signing had nothing to do with wherever Cano was. Only signing that had to do with the departure of Cano was Beltran (and Brian Roberts of course for obvious reasons).
Yeah but Ellsbury was signed because it was pretty clear to the Yankees Cano wasn’t going to be back. If the Mariners hadn’t blown their offer out of the water, Ellsbury wouldn’t be a Yankee. He might be a Mariner.
I really hope they don’t go for Scherzer or Lester. I think those 2 will be way overpaid. Lester I predict regression bad, and Scherzer I predict future injuries.
Their problem was that they really needed hitters, They couldn’t score runs even when they had good pitching. You got Pineda and Tanaka at the top of that. Bring back the bombers, No point spending all your money on another ace that won’t get any run support.
Get Headley/Hanley and a shortstop.
Both of the pitchers you mentioned had long stretches of injuries in 2014. Pineda also has extensive injury problems. Sabathia isn’t good anymore. I’m not so sure you can pencil the Yankee rotation in as being set. I sure wouldn’t put it past them to try for either of both of Scherzer and Lester.
Good point, though his original ponit was very good as well. Yankees missed the playoffs because of a weak offense. Their replacement SP overall did a pretty good job and their bullpen for the most part was lights out. It was their unclutch hitting (except for a couple of walkoffs) that lost them many games
The Yankees either won close games or were blown out. And of course close games happen more than blowouts which is why they were above .500
Totally agree. But what the Yankees think they need and what they actually need are often different. To go all the way back to the OP, I would be shocked if the Yankees weren’t at least involved in the bidding for both of these guys.
To be perfectly honest, I think that depends on who is controlling the team and who’s making these decisions – Cashman? Steinbrenner? Levine? Maybe one wants to get younger and stop giving out contracts while the other 2 just want to go on another spending spree. It’s really hard to tell who is in control of that franchise.
I am glad on one thing though, they are changing their scouting team. Too bad for them (or almost every team for that matter) that the best in the business are on a contract with St. Louis and San Fran.
Oh, there will be reports they are talking to them–if, for nothing else, to drive the price up for the other teams. It’s like when they had a dinner with that one outfielder, I think, at a Winter Meetings–everyone knew the Yankees had no realistic spot to put him but just the reports of the meeting forced the other team to pay more.
I posted earlier that the Yankees were young when considering their pitching but old offensively. Sadly this will not change. Offensively the Yankees are pretty much stuck. Teixiera, in the infield Beltran Gardner and Ellsbury in the outfield, McCann catching and A-Rod at DH. Yankees can make improvements at 2B SS and 3B. Prado will likely be at 2B part time, I’d like to see Headley back at 3B, that leaves SS the only place to actually improve personnel-wise. And do any Yankee fans want to see the oft injured and defensively challenged Hanley Ramirez at SS? (to put Ramirez’s defensive struggles into perspective. Derek Jeter’s final campaign where his defense was criticized was BETTER statistically than Ramirez dWAR -0.6 to -0.7, fielding %age .973-.961)
Yankees need to hope that McCann doesn’t slump like he did the first half of the year and that another offseason will restore Beltran and Teixiera’s numbers and that A-Rod can produce around a level of a .260-.270 avg with 20 HR/80 RBI.
Well, at some point next season, the Yankees might be start one of their top prospects, Rob Refsnyder (3/26/91) at second base so that would bring their overall age average down. Offensively, he’s ready for the big leagues but he was moved from the outfield to second in the minors so he could use so more time to develop on the defensive side of the ball.
Refsnyder and Pirela will probably battle in spring training to see who will split time at 2B with Prado is my guess.
If it were me, I’d leave Refsnyder down at AAA for awhile. I know all Yankee fans are anxious to see him in person but from what I hear, he could use more time to work on his defense at second. Defense is priority one for up-the-middle positions. Prado can keep the position warm for a few months. Plus, ideally, maybe they could keep him down long enough to avoid Super Two status.
Lots of people say this, myself included. However it should be pointed out that since the Yankees drafted Derek Jeter at #6 in 1992, they have had a total of 2 picks in the first round in the top 20, and none in the top 10.
Its easy to criticize the Yankees for rebuilding through free agency and not developing their own players. But the teams that have built good farm systems are USUALLY the teams that pick in the top 10 year after year.
Take the Royals for instance (as they are playing in the world series). Since 1992 they have had 24 top 20 picks 16 of which were top 10 picks.
Easier to develop players when you pick higher up in the draft. Not easy just easier.
One of the reasons why the Yankees have had so few first-round picks is because they’ve been signing Type A FAs (back when that was a thing) or, more recently, guys who received QOs.
It’s a bit of a chicken-or-egg situation in re: Yankees draft picks.
Yes and no. Yes the Yankee have been signing free agents and picking with supplemental picks. But more importantly no because except for 3 years in the last 20 the Yankees have been in the playoffs and would have been picking towards the end of the round regardless.
To reiterate, you’ve got a bit of a chicken-or-egg issue here. It’s not like the Yankees were doing so well with their home-grown picks that they were always winning and didn’t need to sign Type As. Higher draft picks obviously make for more projectable results, and the Phillies have suffered mightily from low picks in the last decade as well, but a major reason for that has been signing Type A or QO’d FAs.
You will note that in the 20 years you cited, the Yankees had no first-round pick in 8 of them. That means they had a minimum of one new top-20% player in 40% of the last 20 drafts. Prior to that, they also had no first-round pick for four consecutive years from ’86-’89, and only a supplemental pick in ’85, plus another five(!) consecutive years from ’79 – ’83.
So from 1979-1989, they had at least one Type-A signing in 10 out of 11 years.
Cubs sign Lester. Scherzer just needs one team.
I agree about the Cubs signing Lester. Scherzer is the one I am having trouble figuring. Dodgers maybe, Yankees maybe. Not many teams out there who can/are willing to go 7 years with a 25+million AAV contract.
Exactly. The bubble burst with the absurd Verlander contract.
Personally, the only pitcher I’m giving much thought to is Lester, because lefties are a huge advantage in Yankee Stadium. If they can’t get Lester, I suggest staying away from Scherzer and Shields and just resigning McCarthy and then, hopefully, between McCarthy, Tanaka, Pineda, Shane Greene, CC, David Phelps and Ivan Nova, they can piece together a rotation.
The Cubs. And it wouldn’t be surprising if the Yankees signed Lester
Cubs are lead by Theo. Will they overpay when they could already be competitive (like the KC Royals) without Lester?
Still don’t think that the Yankees will sign another aging player. It fits too much into their stereotype… FIVE years and close to a billion in money wasted… with empty blue seats and old overpriced players failing.
No one wants to be the Kansas City Royals (payroll-wise). You’re the Kansas City Royals (or any other small market team) because you have to be the Kansas City Royals. There isn’t a small market team in all of baseball that wouldn’t pay to retain their stars if they could afford it. Moneyball isn’t a preferred business method. It’s a last resort of teams that can’t afford to play with the big boys. The Cubs can afford it, so they’ll sign the players they need to succeed.
Not every small market team is a money ball team….that concept has been beaten like a dead horse
Moneyball simply was finding bargains relatively. Players that had toolsets that were underrated, etc. Spending 30 years rebuilding like the Royals isn’t really what it was about. Just because players are cheap isn’t what it was about.
I read that Minnesota was first approached about being the subject of the book. That would have made sense too…but in their case as with the A’s, the bargains were coming due to drafting and developing well. Please don’t think I’m going off on sabremetrics at all…just trying to be fair,
I’ll be fair and say the Royals rebuilt in less than a decade. The floundered in the 90’s due to an ownership flux after Kauffman passed and the present owner who seemed happy cashing revenue sharing checks.
Oh sure, but at the same time 8 years Moore has been in charge. I’d have liked to see a bit quicker rebuild if they were really good finding bargains.
Thus WS run is masking a lot of flaws..I heard Reynolds say last night that Hosmer would hit 30 hr in another park..what I think is some people just started watching this team and think this was their season. It wasn’t……hosmer/Butler/moustakas have vastly underperfomed. There’s a bigger gap between 89 and 99 wins than 79 and 89.
“Moneyball” was a wonderful piece of narrative, but it failed to adequately explain the A’s success. A rotation fronted by Hudson/Zito/Mulder and a left side of the infield of Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada…with Jermaine Dye in RF is a pretty solid core. If anything, that screams scout well. Isolating Scott Hatteberg and Chad Bradford as examples does show efficiency…but really no more than other teams show on a year to year basis. Many teams get contribution through undervalued sources.
Regardless. Any gap that small market teams had with market inefficiency is closed. Everyone from Boston to the LA Dodgers employs a through sabre dept in some capacity or another. The Royals three headed bullpen or speed game isn’t a new concept either.
My point narrowed down is that almost ANY team would be playoff bound with Oakland’s big 3 fronting the rotation and possibly the best left side of the infield of that era. Even the Royals in that day with Sweeney/Randa might have won with that rotation.
How dare you disgrace the name of our coveted book.
🙂 yeah….it was a fun and important book…Lewis is a good narrative writer. Beane has mentioned the narrow focus.
What you’re saying is true, but the A’s have been very successful since losing every one of the players you mentioned. I dispute the fact that ‘any gap’ is closed. The A’s were great again this year and are still a small market team.
People forget how the A’s were pretty bad for 5 straight years, until they surprised everyone in 2012.
I loved that team! So much fun to watch! the Bernie Lean!
In fact I’s say the 2012 A’s represent Moneyball better than any of the teams the put together around the turn of the century.
True, but as a Mets fan, them hovering around .500 despite having a small payroll for those five years wasn’t that bad. Also, they’ve been great for three straight seasons now.
2.5 seasons. They tanked second half
Most of the small market teams are bad for a number of years before they develop enough talent to make a run. Then they are good for a handful of years before their players price themselves out of their range and they start the dance all over again.
Well, when they start winning they lose the high pick.
I like the A’s but they haven’t been “very successful” outside of the past few years….and again that was fueled by their knack for developing a pitching staff. Billy Beane is VERY good at what he does…but the telescope needs to be widened in viewing how it’s accomplished.
So. . .he gets no credit for finding and developing those pitchers?
I believe your NY home slice Sandy Alderson gets some credit. I’m not sure how much credit to give a team who holds a top pick…most teams would take those players
I don’t think he needed to cram Hudson/Mulder/Zito/Chavez through a computer….they weren’t undervalued coming out of the draft.
That’s the mystery to me…..Beane gets so much credit for finding the Hattebergs…..but it’s how great his pitching acumen was….Grady Fuson gets vilified in the film…but he deserves credit
I believe the intellectual gap has closed. The Yankees choose to spend the cash on players the A’s would love to have. They can play the undervalued card when they wish.
Moneyball is a method of analyzing player values, not a philosophy of not paying for players.
Cubs pitching is not competitive.
Remove Shields and the Cubs rotation actually might be better. There were some sneaky quiet outings by that rotation.
Right, but at the same time that lineup is going to absolute dynamite in a few years. Am thinking next winter makes more sense for them. Lester/Scherzer/Shields are all pretty old when next winter you can get Price/Latos/Cueto, which matters more if you aren’t going to be in it next year.
With a solid .500 team and maybe some luck, the Cubs might think they can compete going into next season. Teams don’t have to win 90 games now to win a series.
That line up is already dynamite. They need to get at least a top end pitcher now, and perhaps another one next year, if they don’t get extended.
If they sign Lester or Scherzer this off season, I’m sure all parties involved are cognizant of the team’s future potential, and temper expectations first year or so.
I HOPE the Yankees don’t spend big on a pitcher. I believe they may just because they can. Lester makes the most sense for the Yankees as he is a lefty complement to Tanaka at the top of the rotation.
The Cubs have a lot of money to spend. Last year they made a serious bid to sign Tanaka.
The other two are in their 30s. Seems like a higher risk to me.
It is a higher risk. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
Higher risk than a guy that had never thrown a pitch in the Majors? I don’t think so.
Maybe not for years 1-3… but both Lester and Scherzer are demanding SIX maybe SEVEN years.
Was Albert Pujols more of a risk at ages 38-42 at massive dollars locked in 3 years ago… than Cespedes was at medium dollars for just 4 of his prime years?
Absolutely YES.
can’t really compare Pujols and Cespedes to Tanaka and Lester/Scherzer.
Pujols was 32 and got a 10 year deal while Lester/Scherzer are 30 and will get 7 year deals max. Age 36/37 of those guys should be more productive then 42 year old Pujols making them less risky
Cespedes was given only 36 million while Tanka got a 125 million investment plus posting fee of 20 million making the money invested in Tanaka much closer to Lester/Scherzer then Cespedes was to Pujols. That makes Tananka much more risky then Cespedes was.
Teams will take the chance hoping they’ll get their money’s worth in the first four years or the contract and the decline is gradual. Pitchers this good find teams that are willing to pay them. That’s just how it works. Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and probably a team or two no one has considered will be in on Lester and Scherzer. They’ll both get what they are looking for. They’re too good not to. We’re not dealing with Kyle Lohse and Ervin Santana here. These guys are unquestionable top of the rotation arms. The market will be bigger than you think.
That’s actually great news for small to mid market teams. Pushing the Lester’s and Scherzer’s downhill contracts off onto large market teams has helped capsize some organizations. Without Trout, it’s where the Angels would be….and an aged and bloated Yankee roster enabled either the Royals or A’s a playoff spot.
“Red Sox? No. It is against their philosophy. They still do not even have 1 $20MM AAV player.”
They just did a couple of years ago until they found a team foolish enough to take not 1 but 2 $20+ mil contracts away from them. (and close to 3 – Beckett)
The Red Sox can open up their checkbook at any time too. Don’t be surprised if Lester or Scherzer go there. Particularly Lester. That team needs pitching badly if they want to compete next year. And with a top 5 payroll each year, I don’t think they are going to want to have yet another last place finish for the 3rd time in 4 seasons.
Yes… BEFORE they cleaned house and changed philosophy with a new “Moneyball with Money” mantra.
Right but my point still stands. They have the $ and can use it at any time, so don’t be stunned if they get Lester or Scherzer (or Both for that matter. They can certainly use both if they want to contend next year).
I half agree with your post. The Yankees are an old team offensively. On the pitching side they are actually pretty young if Kuroda retires. Tanaka Greene and Pineda are 25, Nova is 27, Phelps is 28, and McCarthy (who I would like to see resigned) is 31. The bullpen next year could conceivably have no one over 30. The only “old” pitcher is CC who is 34. Signing Lester would not be a terrible idea as he only 30, but I would still shy away from him for now as the Yankees still have a couple of kids in the minors who can contribute also.
Even if Kuroda doesn’t retire, him being their oldest pitcher doesn’t mean much. He had a very solid season and despite being the oldest SP, he started the most games
Strange how the Yankees 3 oldest players last year were never hurt once last year (Jeter, Ichiro, Kuroda).
I was just commenting on the post that the Yankees shouldn’t sign Lester or Scherzer because they are already an old team.
Oh I agree. Depends on the years though. Yankees (or any team for that matter) should stop giving out long term contracts to SP that would end past the age of 35 or so.
Friedman didn’t have the money to sign these guys with Rays; if you hit the lottery tonight and all of a sudden have money to spend, would you still have one pack of Ramen Noodles for dinner tonight?
The commentators beat that Big Game James nickname to death. It wasn’t even deserved before this postseason.
Even less deserving than Big Game David Phelps?
Ha. I don’t think you’ll find many on here that know that.
If executives make player decisions based on the minute sample size that comes from one post-season then they don’t deserve to run a major league team.
Recliner execs make those decisions all the time..
Its not a good sign when your name is mentioned along with Zito and Jackson prior to free agency.
If I am a team serious about winning the world series(not just getting to the playoffs) I am not touching James Shields. Way too many bad starts in the postseason. You can blame it on whatever you want but he has proven he is not good in the postseason.
I don’t like the Zito and Jackson comparisons. Barry Zito had postseason success and only had the one bad start. James Shields has four disaster starts now and all are in his last 5 starts. The Jackson comparison doesn’t really fit because he was signed by the Cubs…and it isn’t like they were really looking at him to pitch in the postseason.
I like Shields going to Miami to give their young staff a veteran leader. They could be a playoff team next year.
Shields has never impressed me. I understood the deal when they made it with Tampa…but I’ve always thought of him as a #2 starter. I know his season stats say better….but when that deal went down…I thought….”no David Price?”
“could keep Shields in demand, even if teams are wary of his late season
contributions. If anything, this improves the positions of Max Scherzer and Jon Lester.”
Lester and Sherzer pitched no better than Shields in their post season starts this year
Maybe FA SP’ers are distracted by impending free agency or they fear risking injury and change something.
Yeah but Shields has a history of struggling in postseason while Lester dominated on his way to a World Series last year.
Yankee rotation next season: Tanaka, Pineda, Greene, CC, Phelps/Nova once he’s back from TJ surgery. If they resign McCarthy, that bumps Phelps to the bullpen which wouldn’t be a horrible thing. Thing is, that’s only one lefty and a declining one at that. Yankee Stadium is favorable to lefty hitters and pitchers so that makes Lester a little more tempting. I don’t want any part of the bidding for Scherzer.
How about a trade for a lefty? Cervelli to the Athletics for Drew Pomeranz. He’s been used mainly like Phelps in the pen or rotation as needed.
I’d definitely sign off on that deal but I don’t know if Oakland would. Billy Beane is notoriously hard to deal with.