Here’s the latest from Vin Scully’s team…
- The Dodgers aren’t likely to sign any starting pitcher that would cost them a draft pick, a source tells ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon. This would rule out the likes of Max Scherzer, James Shields or any other free agent arm who will have qualifying offer draft compensation attached to their services. As Saxon notes, the Dodgers’ primary offseason goal is to inject more youth into their roster, as “they’re terrified of becoming” a team loaded with declining veterans, a la the Phillies or Yankees.
- Speaking of qualifying offers, Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times looks at whether or not the Dodgers would extend a QO to Hanley Ramirez. The qualifying offer (not to mention his injury history and subpar shortstop defense) could hurt Ramirez’s market, which creates the possibility that he could accept the one-year, $15.3MM offer and stay with a Dodger team that may prefer to move on from Ramirez. “It seems like a no-brainer,” Dilbeck writes, that L.A. would give Ramirez a QO and I agree — despite Ramirez’s issues, he’ll surely find a multiyear deal on the free agent market and thus there is very little threat of him accepting the qualifying offer. Even if he did accept, that would hardly be a major problem for the Dodgers since (as Dilbeck notes), Ramirez could then serve as a one-year bridge until prospect Corey Seager is ready at short.
- Also from Dilbeck, he doesn’t think GM Ned Colletti deserves to be fired for the club’s failure to advance beyond the NLDS. The Dodgers have been generally successful during Colletti’s tenure and blaming him for the many large and problematic contracts on the payroll isn’t fair since upper management signed off on those deals, Dilbeck writes.
- While the Dodgers would like to keep A.J. Ellis , the team could non-tender the catcher and then re-sign him at a lower price tag, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick opines. Ellis made $3.55MM in 2014 and he still has two years of arbitration eligibility left as a Super Two player. Ellis’ arbitration raise will be a modest one, as he hit only .191/.323/.254 in 347 PA last season, though Ellis’ hitting isn’t as valuable to the club as his defense and relationship with the pitching staff. According to Gurnick, it seems likely that the Dodgers will acquire another catcher this offseason to compete with Ellis for the starting job.
Jon Lester will not have a QO attached to him, he was traded midseason.
Seems like Lester wanted to return to Boston from his comments when he left.
I think if Lester and Boston were close on numbers, then Boston would have extended him and not traded him.
Lester was gracious in his exit from Boston, but I think he’ll go to whoever pays him most and I don’t think Boston is looking to do that.
Jon Lester will not have a qualifying offer attached to him, he was traded midseason.
I have a hard time seeing Hanley accepting a QO. I think he’ll be in demand enough to command multiple years at at least a comparable AAV.
Yea. Even with his injuries I have a hard time seeing him not top $50MM pretty easy. This isn’t Nelson Cruz or Stephen Drew, this is a true middle the order hitter.
Yes, if you add the qualifier “from an AL team.”
“they’re terrified of becoming” a team loaded with declining veterans, a la the Phillies or Yankees…… Well if they were truly terrified, they would have prevented……
Also: the payroll isn’t fair since upper management signed off on those deals, Dilbeck writes…. Yes, Exactly!
Yeah, I have a hard time blaming Colletti. The owners have to be heavily involved in most all of the roster decisions they have made. I still can’t quite get my head around the Boston deal.
Hanley accepting the QO would be a huge win for the Dodgers.
Yea, no way that happens. If he wanted the one year route I could guarantee someone would give him $20MM+ for one year.
I don’t think Hanley accepts it either, which is fine. Dodgers will get a comp pick.
Interesting. Does this mean that Lester will command a BIGGER contract than Scherzer?
Scherzer may be a slightly better pitcher right now… but Lester will not have the QO albatross.
The QO isn’t going to hurt top free agents. If a team values Lester and Scherzer the same, I guess it could come into play. But if you believe Scherzer is the better pitcher, you’re not going to offer Lester more to save a pick.
Referencing a recent example: There is NO WAY the Cardinals would have given Peralta his big contract last offseason if he got the Qualifying Offer from the Tigers.
If you believe the info in this post, the Dodgers would be OUT for Scherzer and would likely go after Lester instead.
If the Dodgers are out and the Tigers are out (likely to go after Price at this point, when they still have a bit of leverage) and the Red Sox are out as they would also prefer Lester.
WHO will sign Scherzer? Other than the Yankees, almost every other top payroll seems to be OUT. NYY have likely learned their lesson about bidding against themselves. I would not be surprised to see Lester get a bigger contract than Scherzer now.
Peralta’s “big contract” is a lot different from what Scherzer will get. Scherzer could get three times as much. Not a great example.
I am just stating that the number is not ZERO or negligible.
In the case of Scherzer v. Lester, I do think it will make enough of a difference to perhaps tip the scales towards Lester getting more money…. especially if the Dodgers are truly out.
I’m really not sure how much it came into play. The Cardinals were desperate for a SS and made it known they were looking for offense out of the position. Peralta was the only viable option on the FA market.
Maybe if all the big markets are out, he takes a bit of a discount and comes home to pitch!
Just kidding, I know St. Louis isn’t getting anywhere near what it would take to land Scherzer.
Maybe if you value them the same. The draft pick is only worth so much. When you are talking a one year deal for $15MM it really comes into play, a large deal like $150MM it is a very small percent the overall deal.
According to this post, the draft pick is a non-starter for the Dodgers. They will NOT even consider Scherzer because of the Draft Pick issue. So the draft pick is obviously worth a lot to them.
Agreed. The plan is to build up the farm system and everything they’ve done (and not done) follows from that strategy. Where it gets interesting is with Greinke’s option. Will they talk about keeping him in LA beyond 2015 in this offseason? If they can’t nail him down, the strategy might have to change.
The draft pick actually worth a whole lot to a team like the Dodgers. Looking at opportunity cost, they could augment their odds of winning a WS or extend their competitive window. And considering that the draft is their only influx of prospects (they won’t trade away any valuable player for prospects), giving away 1st round picks really stings. And if they can get Lester, Liriano, McCarthy, or even Masterson to keep a draft pick, the Dodgers will do that instead
Lester could be a tricky guy to sign, he has mentioned he would like to return to the Sox.
Colletti should be blamed for assembling such a garbage bullpen of failed, terrible “closers”
Whether they were successful or not was completely up to them as players. What Coletti can be blamed for is not regrouping mid-late season and getting an Andrew Miller, etc.
Well, certainly a bullpen of way past their prime closers. Even when it became clear that they needed bullpen help Nedly did not make any moves to bolster it… That was what irritated me the most and what did them in during the series with St. Louis.
But the question is always what you have to give up, especially in a thin market.
The Dodgers will without a doubt offer Hanley a QO
It’s not like Ned Colletti is doing anything special in Los Angeles. When your divisional peers include Dan O’Dowd, Josh Byrnes and Kevin Towers, a rhesus monkey could GM an NL West team to at least a second place finish.
I don’t know that Colletti deserves to be fired, but here again is one of these odd articles where the “size” of contracts is supposedly somehow connected to the performance of the team and players.
While I don’t subscribe to the argument that Colleti is to blame for their early bounce from the playoffs, it is clear the teams he has built, though sucessful, have not reached the ultimate goal. They seem to fall short due to glaring weaknesses. It’s time for a fresh perspective. I hope that fresh perspective will convince the higher ups that filling those glaring holes will require some sacrifice, money or draft picks. I would offer Hanley nothing but a QO, and they win whether he accepts it or not. Without question need to do something with the catching position. Though he does handle the staff great, his offense and defense has cost the team. Maybe viable competition would be great for him.
The team didn’t have any major weaknesses, glaring or otherwise, at least not on paper. Essentially they just went cold in every possible way, and the Cards got exactly what they needed every time they needed it.
The bullpen from the start of the season was shaky and continued to be throughout the year. At the trade deadline that was what everyone knew they needed, reliable arms. That’s what they didn’t get and that’s a big reason they didn’t advance.
Not unless you think it was predictable that the Cardinals would be instantly converted into a power bat team in the postseason. If you didn’t predict that then the Dodger bullpen was at least adequate.
The team’s bullpen was so thin that Scott Elbert was on the playoff roster, despite having only logged a handful of innings in the year. Both Perez and Wilson had well over 4 ERA’s all year. It was the question all year “who’s the bridge from starter to closer”. I don’t think it was adequate, it was a collection of mostly past their primes vets and unproven kids. Truth this those unproven kids should have been up most of the year allowing them to work their kinks out, but the past their prime vets were in the way. It wasn’t breaking news when the pen was exposed as weak it was par for the course. The most dependable reliever not named Jansen was League. Howell was mostly consistent only stumbling at the end of the year and in the playoffs. Can’t have a bullpen built in 2-3 arms.
Elbert’s return was a positive. He’d been very effective before his injury. Obviously Wilson and Perez disappointed pretty much all season, but Howell becoming suddenly ineffective in the postseason when he’d been very good most of the year was an even bigger factor. The bullpen had issues, I am not arguing otherwise — but it was good enough for the Dodgers to win 94 games in the regular season, so it should have been good enough to go deeper in the playoffs. The Cards got the breaks when they needed them and the Dodgers did not. That’s how the baseball bounces, at least in a short series.
I’d like to see the Dodgers install Arruebarrena at SS and go after Scherzer on a deal expiring at age 37. But perhaps that’s not in the cards.
Price for Puig. I will hang up and listen.
There has been and will be no Puig trade rumors. A young productive asset like that needs to be kept.
The correct diction is “There shan’t be Puig rumors.”
After all, how can Detroit justify trading their best pitcher for a Dodgers “bench” player!
Ba-zing!
Not even any rumors? Seems unrealistic. No doubt we’re going to hear endless speculations about who is being “shopped around” with all sorts of dubious justifications for why the Dodgers are “listening” on players that it makes absolutely no sense for them to trade.
I’m hoping they at least look at Alex Guerrero as a shortstop next spring. Far more upside offensively than Arruebarrena.
I don’t know — I am leaning heavily toward the average-bat, excellent-defense SS model. If Arruebarrena is as good as we hear, his value will be immeasurable for a team that goes all in on pitching. This team drafts pitching over and over. Develop that pitching, buy top-end starters, and the lineup is good enough to produce without Hanley. I’m a fan of Guerrero as well but I’m not positive that the health of Uribe and Gordon will keep up, leaving him a nice backup or platoon partner.
For a glove-only solution at SS the Dodgers have two choices. What Guerrero bring to the party at that position we just don’t know. We only know that his transition to 2B was rugged and Gordon is the incumbent at the position. One of these players might well be traded, especially if Hanley is given and accepts a QO.
I don’t know how Hanley accepts the QO — there will be an AL team offering him massive deals I would imagine. We’ll find out soon.
I’m sure he’ll get offers from AL teams but perhaps well short of massive and lengthy given his history of fragility. I also doubt he accepts a QO but if one is extended it virtually guarantees that a new team has to sign him long to justify the loss of the draft pick. Between the two constraints, this limits his appeal quite a bit.
Mets and Dodgers match up very well as trade partners. You can discuss Wheeler, Niese, Gee, D’Arnaud, Familia, Mejia and Gordon, Arruebarrena, Guerrero, Van Slyke. I’m sure they can find a combination big or small that benefits both teams.
Mets seem to match up better with the Cubs!
Mets fans can forget about Russell. Baez or maybe Castro. I just think Russell is too good.
Guerrero becomes a free agent after the season if he is traded. So it seems highly unlikely the Dodgers deal him.
Thats an interesting clause. I think Guerrero himself may be interested in keeping that year of guaranteed money considering he hasn’t proved himself in the majors yet.
Did Mark Polishuk say AJ Ellis is better know for his defense? What defense. He is the worst defensive catcher in the major leagues. Maybe the worst all-time. He has no clue how to block a ball in the dirt.
Ellis is definitely below average, especially if you subscribe to pitch framing metrics… but worst in the major leagues is probably a bit of an exaggeration.
The Dodgers definitely need to upgrade at catcher, but Ellis is a fine backup.
When in doubt, ask the pitchers.
It’s all relative. OBP aside, Ellis is worthless at the plate, so even though his defense isn’t exactly stellar, he’s known more for that than his bat.
It’s the BULLPEN, not Hanley. I watch the LC series and die… although I had to laugh how the Giants coughed it up to none other than Carpenter, Adams and Wong. Scouting anybody?
If we are truly looking to get younger, and possibly want to shed some payroll; why don’t we look to trade an OF to the Cubs. Look to trade Either (with most of his payroll) and Lee or Reed for Castro. The Cubs have a surplus of infielders and we have a surplus of outfielders. Or Puig and Either for Castro and Bryant… It will fill an absence of Hanley leaving, we can get younger by giving Pederson a shot and we can shed some big contracts.
I don’t want to see a season gambled on Pederson. He doesn’t look ready to me, and trading Puig for anyone just doesn’t make sense. Eithier I agree is going to be moved.
Thats the thing though, how are we going to trade Either without packaging someone with actual trade value? Pederson could platoon in center with SVS until he proves to be an everyday starter. These are all hypotheticals, I just want us to shed the payroll and get younger, and we cannot accomplish this with Carl Crawford AND Andre Either on our team.
By paying down his salary. Some team would probably take him at $5M a year. I don’t care about payroll, and I honestly don’t understand why any baseball fan would spend a second worrying about it.