The Athletics do not intend to deal away star third baseman Josh Donaldson despite speculation that he could be made available, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. That confirms what Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported (via Twitter) the day after the club’s season ended. However, the team will be willing to listen to trade interest in pitchers such as Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir, according to Rosenthal.
Donaldson has emerged as one of the best third basemen and most valuable players in the game. While he is undoubtedly a bargain as a Super Two player with four more years of control, he will not be cheap. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Donaldson will land $4.5MM this year, and that number will only continue to rise.
Donaldson’s rising cost led to suggestions that Oakland may consider dealing him. But while he would undoubtedly bring back a huge return, his departure would leave a gaping hole in any plans of near-term contention. As Rosenthal notes, A’s GM Billy Beane believes the team is still primed to reach the postseason next year.
As for Oakland’s staff, deals involving pitchers on expiring contracts are obviously more palatable, though Rosenthal hastens to add that the A’s are not shopping anyone and mentions that a trade deadline deal (if the team falls out of contention) could be the likelier outcome. Both Samardzija (projected $9.5MM arb salary) and Kazmir ($11MM salary with an additional $2MM luxury tax hit for his signing bonus) are cheap for their recent results, and the former in particular would be a popular trade target. In fact, MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained in his recent outlook for the A’s offseason that a deal involving Samardzija or Kazmir could make a good bit of sense.
I doubt Beane trades anyone. If he does I hope he does it before Fanfest so we pretty much know ’15 will be a rebuild.
Even if he trades someone, it doesn’t mean 2015 will be a rebuild. The team had pythag of 99-63 and BaseRuns of I believe 95-67. Even sustaining a 5 win loss, if you believe Lester & Cespedes accounted for 5 wins, it’s still a potential 90 win team and a contender. Gaining back something (anything?) from Parker/Griffin could offset any further trades. They probably lose Lowrie as well, but they could get more out of Crisp to offset that.
You know when Lester and Cespedece put up 5 WAR (4.7 to be exact) for Oakland in 2014 it did not mean they made the team win 5 more games.
1 WAR does not equal 1 Team Win
I am aware, obviously. I’m just approximating, even if it isn’t anywhere near to exact. It’s an approximation, and that’s why I’m using BaseRuns instead of Oakland’s actual record, it’s easier to approximate what Cespedes and Lester’s contributions were to the actual production, separated from timing of hits and runs.
Im sure there is some minimal correlation between WAR and team wins but WAR is in no way meant to be used, even when talking about BaseRun or pythag record, to predict team record.
It’s 88%
1 WAR DOES EQUAL 1 Team Win. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. If WAR was just an arbitrary number than it would be meaningless.
Here’s what it says on Baseball Refs website:
“Ultimately, baseball teams are interested in wins and losses, and so is WAR. RAA is converted to wins above average by running the results through a PythagenPat win-loss estimator (a rundown of PythagenPat. This allows us to more accurately model the interaction between the player and league and the effect on wins. Generally, ten runs will give you one win, but that does not always hold.
Adding up all of the WAR on a team (adding in replacement level (48 wins for a full season)), should get you very, very close to the team’s actual wins and losses, and should match up even more closely with their Pythagorean win-loss records.”
josh donaldson for chris johnson
That would have actually made sense four year ago.
I dunno who started the rumor that Donaldson was available. Makes no sense. He’s one of the most valuable assets in the game.
I agree, I’d contend Donaldson should be a top-15 trade asset in baseball.
I agree but I bet he gets traded next year. His price tag keeps getting steeper and the A’s need to trade him before he reaches Free Agency, something the A’s are known for doing.
I honestly think that is what Beane has up his sleeve. He will sell off all useful parts after one more run at a WS in 2015 and make this team a contender again in 2-3 years
Do you think ownership will give Billy another chance to rebuild if the A’s don’t win it all in 2015?
Since Billy is a (very small) part of the ownership, yeah.
A’s never did but Im assuming that baseball analysts did because A’s are likely using 2015 as a rebuilding year.
2014 ended on a bad note, but the A’s are going into 2015 with a rotation headed by Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir.
They definitely aren’t rebuilding.
They rebuild every year. Look how many players were traded in 2014 alone.
Donaldson is cheap at $4.5 million and in his prime. He will, like everybody else, get traded by Beane, but not for another year or two. Shoot, Alberto Collaspo made $4.5 million in Oakland in 2014 for being a lousy 2B reserve.
Kazmir and Shark getting traded? If they do you’ll know it’s a rebuild. He’s got to restock the farm system after dumping their top two prospects for the former Cubs.
And, no, Beane doesn’t have to produce a WS win in 2015 or any other year. He’s not going anywhere, and Oakland’s parsimonious owners are getting what they want with that $60-$80 million payroll each and every year.
Im actually a more inclined to agree with you. I’ve just been reading a good amount about the A’s rebuilding in 2015 that I started to believe it. But, yeah it doesnt make sense. They do still have Shark-Gray-Kazmir (strong rotation!).
A’s keeping Josh Donaldson should end all talks about 2015 being a rebuilding year for the A’s.
But, shipping out Addison Russell man….that has got to hurt. Im curious to see if the A’s would go for Stephen Drew and IF they could fix him.
Meh… Trading Russell doesn’t hurt. At least not yet. Ask me in five years. That one could go one of many ways…
Only two Billy Beane trades really sting:
Tim Hudson for a collective nothing and Matt Holiday for a collective nothing.
Even trading CarGo for Holliday doesn’t bother me because CarGo is junk outside of Coors and he wouldn’t have amounted to anything more than a 4th OF in Oakland.
Isn’t Addison Russell ready to take over the SS position for 2015? But, yeah I guess we’ll see in a few years.
Arent the majority of Rockies players junk outside of Coors though? 😉 On a side note, its impressive that Morneau’s splits are actually better not in Coors.
Anyway, Billy Beane is one of the best GM’s in baseball and its always exciting to see what else he has up his sleeves.
Sites like this speculate on the status of all star players on small-market teams. The idea that Beane would trade Donaldson because he stands to make $4.5MM is ludicrous. The only way he would do that is if he got an equally ludicrous return for him. He’s under club control for four more years, and he will play 2015 and 2016 (at about $10MM) in Oakland. Then his salary, assuming he keeps playing as he has, will go up to around $15MM, and then Beane will trade him.
I wonder what a Samardzija or Kazmir return would look like.
Very different. Kaz wouldn’t come close to bringing the same return as Shark.
Shark would still bring back quite a nice haul, no top 10 guys this time though.
I am very aware of that. But I comp Shark to Latos, which I have read could be a B prospect, a ML ready arm and a lottery ticket prospect. But I feel like Beane would want so much more because of what he gave up. Kazmir would no doubt come cheaper in terms of prospects
I think the A’s could do a bit better than that. Shark for a top 50 prospect and a lottery prospect sounds fair.
That sounds about right. I think Latos has more upside but the comp is not perfect because of the injury history on Latos’ side
His comment doesn’t look like it was meant to compare the two and ask who would get more.
Russell and McKinney from the Cubs for Shark and a B level prospect along with a very young pitcher for Kazmir.
Why would they listen on Samarj when they just gave up Russel and others for him? I doubt they’d get a package better then that?
They wouldn’t because he only has a year left on his deal. But that does not mean they won’t get a top 50 guy in return.
To recoup some of their loses from that trade. The A’s already got 1/2 a season from Shark and Hammel so obviously they would be looking for a smaller return than they paid.
Maybe because he has one year left on his deal. And there is the fact that he was offered a 5 year 90Mish that he declined. And I think that they want something back besides the sandwich they would get when he walks in FA this offseason.
Well yes of course, but they should have thought all of this out before trading their top prospect + others. Because now if they trade him they’ll get 50 cents to the dollar on what they initially gave up. Was just a thought.
They were all in this season, I think that is seen by trading pretty much their entire offense for half a year of Jon Lester and Jonny “Captain America” Gomes. So they wanted to upgrade pitching for the postseason and that came at the expense of Russell and Cespedes.
Yoenis Cespedes is half their offense? He’s Josh Donaldson? Jed Lowrie? Stephen Vogt? John Jaso? Brandon Moss? Josh Reddick? Coco Crisp? Dang, Cespedes is a lot of people at once. He’s one player. One. He’s a pretty good ballplayer, but Oakland was hurt more by the injuries/ineffectiveness of Moss and Jaso than losing Cespedes. After all, they did get two months of a good Jon Lester out of the trade.
I was exaggerating with that expression. But the offense was horrendous after he left. I think they ended up scoring like one or two less runs after Cespedes left. So he was a huge part of that offense.
The decline in offense was more to the injuries to Lowrie, Jaso, Coco, Vogt (plus his statistical regression that was bound to come anyway), Moss, and even Donaldson was banged up. Norris regressed too.
Yoenis was a factor in the decline, sure, but more of a minor one
Cespedes hit for decent power with Oakland in 2014, but was otherwise not so great.
He put up a .620 OPS in his final 30 games in green & gold and was a big part of a team-wide offensive collapse that started long before he left.
Yoenis Cespedes who had the same OPS as Josh Reddick and Josh Hamilton was the A’s entire offense?
You have to look beyond the number, Cespedes was the heart and guts of the A’s offense. Without him they had no will to win!!!!
Realistically no, the A’s just got really unlucky and all their bats went cold at the wrong time. The Cespedes just happen to happen at the same time.
Heck, Yoenis’ numbers went down (in a more hitter friendly division, too) after he was traded.
The first paragraph was meant to be the sarcastic one… I actually agree with you that Cespedese wasn’t all that important to the A’s offense.
Oh i know the first paragraph was sarcastic, I was more responding to your last sentence
Cespedes is massively overrated. The Russell trade will probably come back to bite them in the long run (in an ends-justifying-the-means kind of sense it already has), but dumping Cespedes for Lester was a good move IMO
Yea it was a good move for both sides should he resign with the Red Sox. I don’t-think Cespedes is overrated though. If you at the Red Sox offensive averages pre-Cespedes and post-Cespedes. He made that offense much more viable and gave Ortiz the protection he needed last season.
He’s a solid player, don’t get me wrong, just not as good as people seem to perceive. I think he’s one of those players where his fan favorite status kind of clouds people’s judgment on how much production he actually offers. No doubt he’s got some pop and hits for decent power numbers but at the end of the day since his monster rookie year he’s about a .750 OPS guy. Certainly solid, but nothing too special.
Well, fifty cents to the dollar plus Shark’s pitching down the stretch. If Oakland had known they’d be bounced in the WC coin toss game when they made the trade, they obviously would not have given up Russell. Hindsight is nice.
On the get go I felt they gave way too much. If it was David Price then I would have felt it was an even trade. Nothing against Shark, he’s just not in the same league as others like Price.
From reports at the time, the Rays asked for Russell but OAK declined because they believed there was more value in their rotation with 2 quality arms as opposed to the ace, which they acquired later on. (Lester)
Because the A’s don’t have a SS if Lowrie leaves them and they won’t be able to afford Samarjiza after this season when he enter Free Agency.
Red Sox need pitching
So do the Yankees
No interest in Scherzer or Shields or Lester. Id settle for McCarthy, although the Sox pitching holes are deeper at the moment
Oh I completely agree. I am simply hoping the Red Sox keep their farm in tact while assembling theirs.
I could see the Sox being players for Scherzer, I think for Headley the Sox and Yanks will be in a bidding war but ultimately I think he stays in NY
I really hope not, I want no part of Scherzer or Shields.
I agree, I hope the rumors of New York staying away are true. Scherzer has a ton of innings on that arm, same with Shields and are heading into their 30s. I believe its gonna be awhile until they invest 100 million into a starter again
I seriously doubt that, they are the Yankees and the Red Sox. They spend silly money to appease impatient fan-bases. If either the Red Sox and Yankees don’t make the playoffs next season, then money will be flying like nobody’s business
I think NY just needs to be average for a bit till they can revamp via draft and such… Because they over-reacted last off season and vastly overpaid for McCann and Ellsbury. Though I think Tanaka is a stud.
So do most teams in the league.
What is a $2M cap hit in baseball?
It means it adds $2M to the luxury tax considerations of the A’s…Which is not a big deal for them
Figured it was luxury tax related, just a strange use of cap, almost like he was talking NHL, NFL, NBA.
Yeah it was a colloquial way to refer to the luxury tax issue (prorated bonus). Doesn’t matter for A’s but could for some potential trade partners.
I’ll edit to avoid any confusion.
Fair point, I didn’t take the possibility of a trade into consideration
I’m not clear on this point: If Kazmir is traded would his new team owe him $11 million in salary but would have their total payroll count $13 million towards the luxury tax… is this correct?
The amount your team pays you and the amount you cost towards luxury cap are not the same thing. Your luxury value is AAV + Signing Bonus/guaranteed years + buyout/guaranteed years+ some other stuff. The point is, the amount the team pays you isn’t the same amount you cost towards luxury cap unless you have no signing bonus and no buyout and blah blah. Which eliminates practically every player. You’d need to sign a contract like 5 years, 20 million, getting paid 4 million per year with no incentives or bonuses of any kind.
So the upshot is, the A’s aren’t paying luxury tax or receiving less revenue sharing because of Kazmir’s bonus, right? The story is very confusing on this point.
If a team is 11m under the luxury tax threshold, and they acquire Kazmir, they will go over the threshold.
Trade shark and Kazmir for some offense
It was defense that killed the 2014 team, not offense.
The A’s need a whole new middle infield.
Did you see our offense toward the end of the season? Did you watch A’s baseball?
Yeah, I saw the 11 runs the A’s put up against one of the top starters in the AL, and one of the best bullpens.
I also saw a 2b playing SS in Lowrie, and a AAA player at 2b.
The A’s were very poor offensively and defensively at SS, poor offensively at 2b, and poor defensively at catcher.
See my responses above: It was due to some regression (Vogt, Norris), but most of it was due to injuries (Lowrie, Coco, Moss, Jaso, Donaldson) which hopefully have been, for the most part, fixed and won’t be as prevalent next year
I think the A’s believe they can get Donaldson locked up if they aren’t trading as high as possible on him right now. I mean, they could just be holding him back until a later point for strategic purposes, maximize the haul. But I doubt that. Four years of team control starting in the $4-5MM range is gonna be in the $35-40MM range I imagine. Knowing that, is it worth it to lock him up? Make him cost effective, that much more appealing for potential trade partners.
Donaldson will never sign a club-friendly deal. You have to bear in mind that he turns 29 in just a few weeks. He established himself in the majors later than most prospects. He’ll be 33 when he hits free agency. If he signs a deal that buys out any potential free-agent years (which is the only kind he’ll be offered), he’ll never have a chance to hit the open market and make any kind of money at all. His best bet is to go year to year, keep having good years, and then hit FA at 33 with something left in the tank.
Samardzija and Kazmir for Tulo and Cargo? Both teams seem willing to part with the other. Daniel Robertson is still at least 2 years away and there are no other serious outfield prospects since McKinney left.
I was thinking a trade for Tulo for shark and maybe add someone would be possible
Oakland can’t take on that contract
We have been surprised before with signings and trading for players with hefty contracts.
Plus we got rid of a couple big contracts
Yeah and there is absolutely no talent that will be at AAA this next year on the offensive side of the ball. Beane is not one to wait for the next crop of prospects at AA. I would be ecstatic to get a solid player like Tulo on a long term contract. Still weak at 2b though. Punto/Sogard just won’t cut it.
Yeah it seems like it could be a fit we have had a lot of history with trades to Colorado before (Brett Anderson, the infamous Matt Holiday).
I can’t imagine Beane trading half his rotation for two Coors Field hitters with huge home/away splits. Tulo’s a good player anywhere, but not as good as Coors makes him look. CarGo without Coors is just another player.
LOL. So Colorado gets 2 rentals for the best ss in the game and a top outfielder…. Not happening
I like Shark, but Beane made a big mistake with that trade. That said, I wonder the cost to get him? An org like Boston has so many hyped-up prospects that they could get him. These rents are hard to move until July, when teams have a better sense that the price is worth the risk.
From what I have seen from Daniel Robertson in the second half of this year he has looks just as good as Russell did just not as highly touted.
Never would of guessed Donaldson would be the player he was today. I thought Patterson would of had the highest ceiling from the Harden deal. He was the only player I was sad to see go, Murton was a 6th outfielder and Gallegher never seemed like much more than a 6th or 7th inning guy.
Beane will trade anyone even Donaldson but it will cost a few good arms and legs to get him. Kazmir is the likely gone of the three. Last year on a contract having his best season ever. Somebody will bite on that since Shark will cost a good prospect and most teams are unwilling to give up the elite ones.
Whoa there, some of y’alls need to lay off the hubbas on Donaldson.
He’s been a very nice player, but his body of work is not long. Some of y’all talkin like he’s been raking for five years even. Not quite there, yet, so let’s keep it real.
Shark would look awesome in the white sox rotation! What would it take for the sox to pursue jeff?
Considering what the A’s Traded to get him form the Cubs, 2 top 10 prospects, or a top 3 prospect and a young flyer. Francellis Montas and a flyer international player like Micker Adolfo.
I don’t think the sox are not giving up on ready prospects such as Montas. Maybe Micker Adolfo, and chris bassitt. If you seen how chris pitched in the September call ups he was great.
I did not think the A’s would give up on a prospect such as Addison Russell. Montas is hardly a ready prospect he has one great year and will start the season at AA. I think that would be a fair trade but what do I know.
If the Sox go after a starter, it won’t be by trading for a one-year rental. That makes absolutely no sense given their place on the development curve.
Beane won’t trade Shark or Kaz until he know’s he’s out of the race in 2015 at the trade deadline. The healthy returns of Parker and Griffin could also determine that.