As explained in this series of posts, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. We’ve heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet! Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with all the projected salaries. The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2014 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
Angels (11)
- Gordon Beckham (5.123) – $5.0MM
- Matt Joyce (5.123) – $4.9MM
- David Freese (5.028) – $6.3MM
- Fernando Salas (4.048) – $1.4MM
- Drew Butera (4.018) – $900K
- Cesar Ramos (4.003) – $1.3MM
- Vinnie Pestano (3.054) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-10-14
- Wade LeBlanc (3.038) – $800K
- Hector Santiago (3.016) – $2.2MM
- Collin Cowgill (2.151) – $900K
- Garrett Richards (2.148) – $4.0MM
Astros (8)
- Dexter Fowler (5.168) – $9.0MM
- Tony Sipp (5.100) – $1.5MM
- Jason Castro (4.104) – $3.9MM
- Hank Conger (3.051) – $1.1MM
- Carlos Corporan (3.019) – $1.0MM
- Alex Presley (2.162) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-18-14
- Chris Carter (2.159) – $3.5MM
- Marwin Gonzalez (2.133) – $1.0MM
Athletics (11)
- Ike Davis (4.155) – $4.4MM – reached agreement 12/2/14
- Sam Fuld (4.140) – $1.6MM
- Jesse Chavez (4.108) – $2.5MM
- Craig Gentry (4.084) – $1.5MM
- Josh Reddick (4.050) – $3.7MM
- Fernando Abad (3.073) – $900K
- Eric Sogard (3.064) – $1.0MM
- Brett Lawrie (3.055) – $1.8MM
- Fernando Rodriguez (3.053) – $900K – reached agreement 12/2/14
- Ryan Cook (3.036) – $1.3MM
- Jarrod Parker (3.000) – $900K
Blue Jays (4)
- Marco Estrada (5.035) – $4.7MM
- Brett Cecil (4.152) – $2.6MM
- Danny Valencia (3.118) – $1.7MM
- Josh Donaldson (2.158) – $4.5MM
Braves (2)
- James Russell (5.000) – $2.4MM
- Mike Minor (3.138) – $5.1MM
Brewers (3)
- Gerardo Parra (5.145) – $6.4MM
- Brandon Kintzler (3.101) – $900K – reached agreement 12-2-14
- Martin Maldonado (2.156) – $1.0MM
Cardinals (5)
- Jon Jay (4.134) – $4.5MM
- Peter Bourjos (4.062) – $1.6MM
- Jordan Walden (4.043) – $3.0MM – extended 12-23-14
- Lance Lynn (3.119) – $5.5MM
- Tony Cruz (3.105) – $700K
Cubs (8)
- John Baker (5.141) – $1.1MM
- Chris Coghlan (4.148) – $1.4MM
- Luis Valbuena (4.148) – $3.1MM
- Travis Wood (4.004) – $5.5MM
- Pedro Strop (3.156) – $2.4MM
- Jake Arrieta (3.145) – $4.1MM
- Felix Doubront (3.120) – $1.3MM
- Welington Castillo (3.009) – $2.1MM
Diamondbacks (6)
- Cliff Pennington (5.114) – $3.3MM – reached agreement 12-28-14
- David Hernandez (5.095) – $2.1MM – reached agreement 12-17-14
- Daniel Hudson (4.117) – $700K
- Jeremy Hellickson (4.045) – $3.9MM
- Mark Trumbo (4.027) – $5.7MM
- Addison Reed (3.027) – $3.8MM
Dodgers (6)
- A.J. Ellis (4.151) – $3.8MM
- Kenley Jansen (4.073) – $8.2MM
- Darwin Barney (4.053) – $2.5MM – reached agreement 12-2-14
- Justin Turner (4.045) – $2.2MM
- Juan Nicasio (3.084) – $2.4MM
- Joe Wieland (2.161) – $500K – avoided arbitration 12-6-14
Giants (7)
- Casey McGehee (5.028) – $3.5MM
- Gregor Blanco (4.164) – $3.5MM
- Yusmeiro Petit (4.016) – $1.6MM
- Brandon Belt (3.128) – $3.4MM
- Travis Ishikawa (4.012) – $800K – reached agreement 12-4-14
- Brandon Crawford (3.094) – $2.5MM
- Hector Sanchez (2.166) – $1.0MM
Indians (6)
- Brandon Moss (4.160) – $7.1MM
- Marc Rzepczynski (4.132) – $1.9MM
- Josh Tomlin (4.033) – $1.7MM
- Carlos Carrasco (3.147) – $1.4MM
- Bryan Shaw (3.081) – $1.5MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (3.027) – $2.2MM
Mariners (7)
- Austin Jackson (5.000) – $8.0MM
- Michael Saunders (4.138) – $2.9MM
- Logan Morrison (4.069) – $2.6MM
- Justin Ruggiano (4.019) – $2.5MM
- Charlie Furbush (3.121) – $1.0MM
- Tom Wilhelmsen (3.091) – $2.1MM
- Dustin Ackley (3.087) – $2.8MM
Marlins (7)
- Mat Latos (5.079) – $8.4MM
- Mike Dunn (4.079) – $2.3MM
- Aaron Crow (4.000) – $2.0MM
- Steve Cishek (3.143) – $6.9MM
- Henderson Alvarez (3.051) – $4.5MM
- David Phelps (2.156) – $1.3MM
- Dee Gordon (2.154) – $2.5MM
Mets (6)
- Bobby Parnell (5.132) – $3.7MM
- Daniel Murphy (5.109) – $8.3MM
- Dillon Gee (4.028) – $5.1MM
- Ruben Tejada (3.171) – $1.7MM
- Lucas Duda (3.137) – $4.3MM
- Jenrry Mejia (2.140) – $3.1MM
Nationals (11)
- Kevin Frandsen (5.151) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-13-14
- Tyler Clippard (5.148) – $9.3MM
- Jerry Blevins (5.081) – $2.2MM
- Doug Fister (5.058) – $11.4MM
- Craig Stammen (4.160) – $2.1MM
- Drew Storen (4.140) – $5.8MM
- Stephen Strasburg (4.118) – $8.1MM
- Wilson Ramos (4.047) – $3.2MM
- Jose Lobaton (3.138) – $1.2MM
- Danny Espinosa (3.113) – $2.3MM
- Bryce Harper (2.159) – $2.5MM – extended 12/15/14
Orioles (11)
- Alejandro De Aza (5.139) – $5.9MM
- Matt Wieters (5.129) – $7.9MM
- Steve Pearce (5.116) – $2.2MM
- Bud Norris (5.068) – $8.7MM
- Tommy Hunter (5.066) – $4.4MM
- Chris Davis (5.061) – $11.8MM
- Brian Matusz (4.156) – $2.7MM
- Chris Tillman (3.113) – $5.4MM
- Miguel Gonzalez (3.095) – $3.7MM
- Ryan Flaherty (3.000) – $1.0MM
- Zach Britton (2.158) – $3.2MM
Padres (7)
- Shawn Kelley (5.128) – $2.5MM
- Ian Kennedy (5.124) – $10.3MM
- Andrew Cashner (4.126) – $4.3MM
- Tyson Ross (3.126) – $5.7MM
- Yonder Alonso (3.116) – $1.6MM
- Dale Thayer (3.071) – $1.3MM
- Alexi Amarista (3.053) – $1.5MM
Phillies (3)
- Ben Revere (3.149) – $4.0MM
- Domonic Brown (3.078) – $2.6MM
- Cesar Jimenez (3.020) – reached agreement 10-23-14
Pirates (12)
- Sean Rodriguez (5.133) – $2.0MM
- Antonio Bastardo (5.054) – $2.8MM
- Neil Walker (4.166) – $8.6MM
- Francisco Cervelli (4.146) – $1.1MM
- Mark Melancon (4.098) – $7.6MM
- Chris Stewart (4.091) – $1.3MM
- Travis Snider (4.091) – $2.0MM
- Pedro Alvarez (4.085) – $5.5MM
- Tony Watson (3.101) – $2.0MM
- Josh Harrison (3.033) – $2.2MM
- Jared Hughes (2.162) – $1.1MM
- Vance Worley (2.139) – $2.9MM
Rangers (4)
- Adam Rosales (5.022) – $1.0MM
- Ross Detwiler (5.002) – $3.3MM
- Neftali Feliz (4.151) – $4.1MM
- Mitch Moreland (4.067) – $2.8MM
Rays (8)
- John Jaso (5.032) – $3.3MM
- Kevin Jepsen (4.163) – $2.6MM
- Jake McGee (3.127) – $3.8MM
- Logan Forsythe (3.113) – $1.2MM
- Desmond Jennings (3.101) – $3.2MM
- Rene Rivera (3.082) – $1.3MM
- Alex Cobb (3.061) – $4.5MM
- Drew Smyly (2.154) – $3.0MM
Red Sox (4)
- Rick Porcello (5.170) – $12.2MM
- Junichi Tazawa (4.086) – $2.0MM
- Daniel Nava (3.045) – $1.9MM
- Wade Miley (3.044) – $4.3MM
Reds (7)
- Mike Leake (5.000) – $9.5MM
- Chris Heisey (4.157) – $2.2MM
- Logan Ondrusek (4.125) – $2.3MM
- Aroldis Chapman (4.034) – $8.3MM
- Zack Cozart (3.084) – $2.3MM
- Todd Frazier (3.071) – $4.6MM
- Devin Mesoraco (3.028) – $2.8MM
Rockies (8)
- Drew Stubbs (5.047) – $5.7MM
- Jhoulys Chacin (5.012) – $4.9MM
- Rex Brothers (3.117) – $1.3MM
- Michael McKenry (3.097) – $1.5MM
- Adam Ottavino (3.087) – $1.0MM
- Jordan Lyles (3.060) – $2.5MM
- Tyler Chatwood (3.039) – $1.0MM
- Wilin Rosario (3.023) – $3.6MM
Royals (9)
- Greg Holland (4.028) – $9.3MM
- Eric Hosmer (3.146) – $5.2MM
- Mike Moustakas (3.111) – $2.7MM
- Tim Collins (3.097) – $1.5MM
- Jarrod Dyson (3.088) – $1.3MM
- Danny Duffy (3.085) – $2.6MM
- Lorenzo Cain (3.074) – $2.3MM
- Louis Coleman (2.162) – $700K
- Kelvin Herrera (2.157) – $1.5MM
Tigers (4)
- David Price (5.164) – $18.9MM
- Alfredo Simon (5.142) – $5.1MM
- Al Alburquerque (3.147) – $1.7MM
- J.D. Martinez (3.036) – $2.9MM
Twins (6)
- Brian Duensing (5.104) – $2.5MM
- Jordan Schafer (4.121) – $1.5MM
- Trevor Plouffe (3.162) – $4.3MM
- Eduardo Nunez (3.090) – $1.2MM
- Tommy Milone (2.165) – $2.8MM
- Casey Fien (2.143) – $1.1MM
White Sox (6)
- Jeff Samardzija (5.028) – $9.5MM
- Tyler Flowers (3.148) – $2.1MM
- Dayan Viciedo (3.123) – $4.4MM
- Hector Noesi (3.006) – $1.9MM
- Nate Jones (3.000) – $600K
- Javy Guerra (2.133) – $1.3MM
Yankees (6)
- Esmil Rogers (4.088) – $1.9MM – reached agreement 12-2-14
- Ivan Nova (4.024) – $3.3MM
- Michael Pineda (3.099) – $2.1MM
- David Huff (3.062) – $700K
- David Carpenter (3.016) – $1.1MM
- Nathan Eovaldi (3.013) – $3.1MM
Will Middlebrooks is not arbitrtion eligible, is he? I thought Rubby De La Rosa was?
Oops, I should have taken Middlebrooks out. He’s not arb eligible. De La Rosa is not close.
Yay! A top feature of this site for sure. Thanks again!
LeMahieu is also not arb eligible. Just leftovers from before I knew the Super Two cutoff.
If Eric Young or Gerardo Parra are non-tendered, would love for the Phillies to jump on that. It probably won’t happen because they extended Sizemore though.
As a Mets fan, I’d love to see Eric Young starting for the Phillies.
I wonder how many the Orioles will non-tender?
One thing though, I do want them to keep De Aza.
I don’t see many candidates. Maybe Ryan Flaherty because you can find his type of production for below ~1M. Maybe a very outside chance of Chris Davis after a terrible season, a history of walk and strikeout issues. I don’t see that happening though.
Yeah the O’s are hurting on the arb-bill. Good thing they had the postseason to save up.
Hunter and Matusz are possibilities too.
Matusz is for sure gone. Hunter at 4 million I would drop as well. As for De Aza I would maybe try to work out some kind of 2 year extension… similar to what we signed O’Day for a few years back.
You could trade them for value rather then non-tender. both have solid value as relievers. Hunter has been dominate for 2 years now.
Hunter dominate?
MMmm at times and other times not so much.
2.97 ERA and 3.15 FIP is still pretty good. I’d keep him or trade him. Non-tendering would be a waste.
What are the odds Dom Brown gets non-tendered?
My guess is low. Someone would trade for him based on his former top prospect status
Dominic Brown and reliever for Dayan Viciedo
Porcello (25) has more service time than Price (29). Weird.
One signed out of HS one signed after college. Why is it weird?
1. Name a comparable to Porcello.
2. Who will be a better pitcher for the next 5 years. Remember Price will be 34 in 5 years.
Carlos Zambrano, why do I care who will be better, it was just a comparison to service time…
I am sure the Tigers care as the older guy will make $7MM more than younger guy in 2015.
But that has nothing to do with your original statement that I was responding to, why it was weird, and it wasn’t weird, one started their professional career much younger.
It makes sense because David Price has already proved himself to be one of the elites in baseball, whereas Ricky P still has to prove himself. His 2014 is a very good start.
Exactly, Porcello has been viewed as a back end starter for a large amount of his time in the majors while Price has been an ace since pretty much his rookie campaign. Porcello has never been considered an ace.
It just seems like Price has been around forever, though.
It’s crazy to me that David Price will be making twice as much as Jeff Samardjiza for similar production. Also, Tyler Clippard. Danggggg.
How many seasons has Shark gotten Cy Young votes? He’s been doing it better for longer. Shark has ~7 career WAR and Price has ~23 career WAR. Seems to make sense to me.
Price career fWAR: 24.9
Samardjiza career fWAR: 9.9
Even if you don’t like using WAR to evaluate pitchers that’s a huge difference that shouldn’t be ignored.
I’m not saying Shark is good or Price is bad. Consitency is huge and Price has been nothing but. The large difference just shocks me.
Oh cmon, David Price has already established himself as one of the elite pitchers in baseball. Shark is good, but has he been David Price good?
Obviously not.
Even the best are going to have their down years. Price had one, and will likely bounce back next season. You can count on it. That alone is why he’d be making twice as much as Shark, who I think is good, but overrated.
5MM for Gordon Beckham seems excessive, if the Angels need to shed salary just non-tender Beckham and keep Kendrick. Both only have 1 year of team control remaining.
They better not cut/trade Freese and stick Beckham at 3B.
It does seem excessive but they’d be shedding more with Kendrick. Plus, there’s more depth at 2B, Beckham included. It’s not like Beckham is their lone every day option there. He’s probably going to share a utility role with Green, and both will likely bounce around the IF when needed. Beckham was also their only bench player with an OPS+ over 100, but it was a small 26 game sample size. That brings up another point, as all 9 regulars had OPS+ over 100. This is an offense that specializes in balanced average or better production from all positions. So trading Kendrick and replacing him Beckham/Green doesn’t really frighten me, even with the projected $5 million in arbitration. And whatever they lose in terms of Kendrick’s production/WAR, they can off set with the pitching they acquire in return, and in additional moves, which is about all they really need this offseason.
This is awesome. The only thing that would make it more awesome (and would take some time) is to throw in their 2014 salaries. Then you can understand what the real impact will be to a team.
Definitely – a FanGraphs-like table with current, projected, and raise columns would be much easier to read.
I wonder if baseball reference has an all arbitration projection page that can be customized and pasted into a post the same way you can with team payroll pages.
I see the Reds non-tendering both Heisey and Ondrusek at those prices. Neither is worth all that much.
I don’t think there’s a single guy on the White Sox list I’d keep.
I don’t know if that’s good management or bad….
I’d keep Nate Jones, Guerra and Viciedo. I’d also keep Flowers if you don’t have any better options.
Nate Jones is a possible keeper, but Flowers and Viciedo would only be appealing to me if I could find someone to take them in a trade.
Guerro, truth is outside of reading his numbers, I don’t know much about.
Outside of Russell Martin, Flowers is the most appealing catcher the ChiSox are going to be able to get.
Evan Gattis could be available through trade.
I guess if you’re willing to part with him. Hes an average catcher. Nothing special. Even a Carlos Ruiz would be better.
He is a very good hitter, though, and much younger than Chooch.
Can’t imagine the Braves pay Medlen 5.8M coming off his second TJ. I would imagine he’s non-tendered if he won’t take a pay cut.
That’s interesting, I could see the Braves cutting him loose to save salary but I’m not sure it’s too smart. TJ surgery isn’t as damning as it once was and it wouldn’t scare me away from him if I was a GM who liked his make up. 5.8 mil is pretty cheap for a guy who has proven himself in the majors and will be 29 next season. His height (we all know the rap on small pitchers and how easily they break) and low K numbers might be negatives against him. I’m not sure how much of that you look past with Kris though. His fastball velo has always been at 90 MPH and he throws a sinker and change more often than the 4 seamer anyway. If he was a fastball/curve guy who sat at 94-95 before TJS I might be a lot more cautious about giving him 5.8 mil. Sinkerballers who use the change as their strike-out pitch just aren’t the same.
While Medlen has been pretty good when healthy, I don’t think that carries as much weight, now that he’s had his second TJ surgery. He’s a big question mark and 5.8M is a lot to pay for a team with somewhat limited payroll.
1st time TJ surgeries are usually successful. When it’s a players 2nd TJ, the player is usually not nearly as good as before it. Much greater likelihood of setbacks, complications, decreased velocity, etc.
Jordan Zimmermann?
Never mind – 2 yrs 24 mil last winter.
Do arb guys almost always get raises? I noticed you have AJ Ellis at a slight increase from 2014 even though he batted under .200, slugged under .300 and had an OPS+ of 68. It seems like arbitration is based mostly off of the traditional batting stats. Does defense, pitch framing, and CS% factor in at all considering how little a big bat matters at the catcher position? I wonder if Ellis’ agent will bring up how important he is as a game-planner/pitching coach since that truly is where LA values him most. I’m not sure it matters for Ellis since I can see him and LA reaching a deal before it gets that far.
Pretty much. Service time alone creates a degree of seniority. That all changes when they hit free agency.
So is Alex Avila actually projected to make 5.4 mil in arbitration, or is that number just there because that’s the amount of his option? Kind of confusing.
It is also the arb projection, kind of coincidental.
some of these salaries are just sick.
Nice work. Funny how the game has changed–I looked at some of the salaries and thought “tradeable asset”
The five highest projected arb salaries in this list:
1. Tigers, David Price, $18.9 M
2. Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton, $13.0 M
3. Tigers, Rick Porcello, $12.2 M
4. Orioles, Chris Davis, $11.8 M
5. Nationals, Doug Fister, $11.4 M
If I was the Braves, I know how I could save about $19.4MM and go get me a NICE SP. I would keep just 2 guys for only $2MM. You guys do the math!
Just saying!
Matt:
Reading your prior posts, you suggest that the most important numbers for a closer in their first year of arbitration is platform saves and pre-platform saves.
How then does your model account for Jenrry Mejia getting 3.1 mil given that he does not have any pre-platform saves and recorded 28 in his platform season especially given his injury history and rough peripheral stats.