The Braves announced that they have officially made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to right-hander Ervin Santana, who will now have a week to accept or decline the offer. Should he decline and sign elsewhere, which seems likely, the Braves would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round of next year’s draft.
Santana, 31, enjoyed a solid season for Atlanta in which he posted a 3.95 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 42.7 percent ground-ball rate in 196 innings of work. While his ERA rose, metrics such as FIP (3.39) and xFIP (3.47) felt Santana had his best season since 2008.
Santana was hit with a QO last offseason as well and struggled to find a deal, though that may have been more due to the fact that his agents (two of whom no longer represent Santana) were said to be seeking a deal north of $110MM than the fact that Santana required a draft pick in order to sign. Even with a QO hanging over his head, Santana was able to find a one-year deal worth the exact amount of the QO ($14.1MM) late in the offseason, and he had similar one-year offers from both Baltimore and Toronto as well as three-year offer in the $30-33MM range from the Twins.
Suffice it to say, while the QO likely impacted his value in a negative manner, it certainly didn’t eliminate all interest in him on the open market. I’d wager that hitting the market with more realistic expectations this time could be beneficial — a sentiment which Tim Dierkes elaborated upon in his recent Free Agent Profile for Santana. Tim ultimately predicted a four-year deal north of $50MM for Santana — a projection with which I agree.
Earlier today, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted that Santana has indicated that he’d consider accepting the QO, though as O’Brien noted shortly thereafter, it’s possible that was simply posturing by Santana’s camp in an effort to dissuade the team from making the offer in the first place (Twitter links).
You can use MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker to follow everyone who’s received a QO to this point and track their status in the coming week as they make their decisions.
If Santana wants to maximize his AAV he should just accept the QO. I doubt he will get more than 3/40-4/50, 13.3MM-12.5MM AAV, on the market.
But if he wants to maximize value by going that route then he’s banking on having a year better then this one. That’s a big risk for a guy with an up and down years like him. This could be his last chance to get more than 2 years guaranteed on a contract with an AAV of 10 million or more.
I think most teams will not be willing to offer him more than a year deal with an option.But it may turn out he’ll go to who ever is willing to give him 4 guaranteed years
I dont think Santana will have any problem finding a 4 year deal. Ubaldo Jimenez got 4/50 last off season and he had a much more inconsistent track record.
That was also in a weaker market.
From your first post: – ” I doubt he will get more than 3/40-4/50″
And now you say “I dont think Santana will have any problem finding a 4 year deal”
Well what are you expecting? You think he’d accept or is asking for something lije 4 year/$30 million???
I think he should take the $ and accept it. Otherwise he’d be lucky to get 2 year/$20 million probably.
Note the 3 year deal I proposed has a higher AAV than the 4 year team. I am simply saying if his goal is to maximize his AAV the QO is the way to go, if he wants to maximize his total commitment he should be able to secure a 4 year deal at a much lower AAV.
Basically I am saying AAV and contract length are inversely proportional, and this is especially pronounced in Santana’s case.
Fair enough.
It’s easy for us to sit here and say “take the 1 year, bigger AAV now, and you’ll probably end up with more money in the long run”. But for a market as volatile as MLB is, where 1 injury could cost you so much, I can’t blame a guy for taking more guaranteed money.
I can’t blame him either way, there is a logic to either approach. I am just saying there is more to his remarks than simple posturing by his camp to dissuade the team from making the offer in the first place
Except it is not more guaranteed money. It could even be Less money. Ask Santana, Drew, Cruz and Morales.
Santana got the same amount. Drew and Cruz signed for pro-rated versions of the QO or dang close to it. They could’ve had the QO value if they’d signed before the season, which is another thing entirely.
The only person who took noticeably less than the QO sum was Cruz, and he was coming off a PED suspension and had been looking for $75MM+.
The thing that crushed most of these FAs last season wasn’t the QO alone. It was ludicrously high expectations coupled with the detriment of a QO. Nearly every QO’ed free agent has gotten paid, and the ones who haven’t have all had well-documented sky-high asking prices. I firmly believe that if Santana had gone out looking for Anibal Sanchez money last year rather than Matt Cain money, he could’ve landed at least a solid four-year deal. But asking 6/112 off the bat just led a lot of his suitors to go spend their funds elsewhere.
I said it Could be less money. Sorry if I worded it wrong. But good points overall.
If he can stop going back and forth from season to season (good year then bad year) then he might get a 4 year deal somewhere. Until that changes it’ll likely be one year deals and accepting QO’s.
“If he can stop going back and forth from season to season (good year then bad year)”
Isnt that exactly what Santana did in 2013 and 2014? 2013 fWAR 2.9, 2014 fWAR 2.8.
rWAR was only 1.2 this year and his ERA+ was 99. He did not have a good year this year. Average year at best.
He’s had a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons and averaged 207 innings per year since 2010. He’s been pretty consistent with 2012 looking like the only real outlier. Not elite, but a solid enough mid-rotation arm that offers more certainty than a number of his peers (Liriano, McCarthy, Maeda, Hammel). I feel like four’s there, even with the QO.
“He’s had a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons”
Pitching in pitchers parks helps that. His ERA+ has been below 100 in 2 of the past 3 years. He is a completely inconsistent pitcher. Any GM who wastes a first round pick over an At Best, average pitcher, would be making a terrible decision.
Maximizing the AAV isn’t the goal of a player though. They want to maximize the guarantee. He won’t top 4/61, I agree, but at 31-32 years of age, his priority is likely getting one more good multi-year deal.
That is certainly the conventional wisdom however every now and then there is a player that does not conform to conventional wisdom. In the end Santana will probably seek and secure a multiyear deal.
Maybe I am just feeling like anything can happen after a mutual option was actually exercised by both sides earlier today.
Ha! Definitely a rare sight — especially at that level. Last one before that was Matt Belisle for something like $4.25MM. That’s definitely an abnormality.
If I was Santana, I would accept the QO. Then the Braves may end up trading him to cut payroll or not offering it next year. I think if 2 or 3 players accepted it, it would make teams more likely not to give it to players that are borderline.
I don’t think a team is allowed to QO a guy in consecutive years, so they couldn’t offer him one next year.
But I could be wrong. I was only half paying attention when I read about it– side effect of drinking a lot while I use the computer.
Yes you can. Any team can offer a QO to any player who becomes a free agent after spending the entire previous season with the team.
My mistake then.
[takes long drink] Hic. Oog.
Or ATL might just keep him and start him knowing we need pitching. Sure, we would be down a draft pick, but having a mid-rotation arm to go with Minor at full strength, and another year of Teheran, Wood, would be worth the $15.3MM. If that did happen I could them more likely to trade one of Gattis or Upton/JHey, knowing they would need financial flexibility (Upton/JHey) and could also benefit from more prospects.
You think Atlanta loses a draft pick to Atlanta?!
There goes his market.
Santana only landed with the Braves because two of their projected starting pitchers had their elbows blow out in March, and I wonder if that might color his thinking. The guarantee of $40-50 million might be preferable to $15.3 million and gambling for the rest.
With our luck he’s going to take it and screw up our already modest payroll
Ive got a sneaky feeling he might just take it and make the Bravos regret offering it big time, as his $15m would blow a massive hole in any plans they had to reshape their roster this offseason.
I am afraid that will happen, but something tells me he will not have learned from his mistake last year and think that he has rebuilt his stock immensely in 2014 (which he did, but probably not as much as he or his agents think). I don’t think any player is going to accept a QO until it’s a blatantly obvious decision to do so. Don’t think Santana will be the first. At least I hope not.
No youre probably right in that he’ll over-value himself and ask for something like 3/50, 4/60 on the open market, its probably more just a whimsical hope than logic, simply because id love to see one player finally take a QO just to see the knock on effect.
He may be better off taking the QO this season and trying for the multi-year deal next year, where the market isn’t quite as robust. He’ll be 32, which is still young enough to get a similar deal than he could get this year. He really shouldn’t have set his demands so ridiculously high last year…….
Cant believe I miss the old Type A and Type B
what do you guys think about the braves making an offer to hanram and cutting chris johnson loose or trading him for bullpen help?…certainly you have to admit that hanram not only better defensive skills than johnson but also significantly more power potential and dual eligibility at shortstop and third base and can fill in nicely for simmons or lastella when either one or both need a day off
Todd, I WILL LOVE for the Braves to trade Chris Johnson. I’ve said that for the past year and then some. His playing attitude is something to be desired AND HE AIN’T THAT GOOD on top of that. In my eyes he is a one hit wonder. Now, the question is… what can the Braves get for him???
I would say…
Give Santana a 3 yr $33 to $40mil contract.
Bye Bye to Gavin Floyd, Ryan Doumit, Emilio Bonifacio, Gerald Laird, Juan Jaime.
OMG.. a no brain er… Bring back David Ross.
Trade Minor for another SP or decent outfield bat. AND BEEEGGGGG to trade BJ and Gattis and/or Walden for a GOOD starter. You can always bring up for time being Terdoslavish, Cunningham or Constanza (AGAIN… lol).
Keep Alex Wood, Chasen Shreve, Shae Simmons and David Hale as relievers, and try to get reliever Andrew Miller and see how your financials are after. If you still have room, try to get more pitching either SP (like Justin Masterson, Max Scherzer, Brett Anderson, James Shields, Ryan Vogelsong, Joe Saunders) or RP and move your pieces around.
Lastly one name.. NELSON CRUZ!!!
BTW, has anyone noticed that the Braves have 20 pitchers in their 40 man roster??!!!
JUST SAYING!
need to keep emilio given the multiple positions he can play and the fact hes a switch hitter who hit righties last year at a.280 clip
Nah… that is adding MORE strikeouts!! I believe that they already have enough as it is.
You want to use Alex Wood as a RP? He was pretty much our best SP last year and one of the best in the NL. 170IP with a 3.25FIP. It’s time to use him more, not less.
Yes, save that arm a little longer and use him as long reliever. WE ALL KNOW that we will need him soon enough.
And btw… Braves… trade BJ and Gattis for Colorado’s Gonzales.
or tried to get Jeff Samardzija or Scott Kazmir from A’s.
Just saying!!