NOVEMBER 9: Martin will decline the qualifying offer prior to Monday’s deadline, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The move comes as no surprise given the strong market developing for his services. As we learned yesterday, the Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are the early front runners.
NOVEMBER 3: The Pirates have extended one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offers to both Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano, the team announced.
Both moves have been expected to varying degrees. Martin was seen as the likelier candidate, but Liriano is coming off a pair of strong, albeit injury-shortened seasons, and figures to seek a more lucrative multi-year deal on the open market.
Martin batted .290/.402/.430 for the Pirates this season and has come to be regarded as one of the game’s most elite defensive backstops based on his ability to control the running game and his exceptional pitch-framing skill. Liriano, meanwhile, pitched to a 3.38 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 168 innings this season and turned in a combined 3.20 ERA in 323 1/3 innings with the Pirates over the past two seasons.
Both Liriano and Martin will now have one week to decide whether or not to accept the offers. In Martin’s case, with his rumored price tag soaring north of $50MM over the past couple of months, conventional wisdom says that he’ll turn the offer down. Some may find Liriano a better bet to accept the offer, and while that’s true, doing so would expose him to the risk of an injury or a down season. It seems more likely to me that he’ll decline the QO in search of a multi-year deal, looking to the case of Ervin Santana last year as a worst-case scenario. Santana declined the $14.1MM qualifying offer from Kansas City and still signed a one-year, $14.1MM contract with the Braves months later. (Santana also received a QO of his own earlier today.) By declining the offer, Liriano is at most risking a few million dollars, as even with a draft pick attached, he could likely find $12MM+ on a one-year deal, if not the entire value of the QO as Santana did last season. However, accepting would be risking the upside of $15-20MM more than the QO on the open market.
MLBTR readers can keep track of all players who receive a qualifying offer by using our Free Agent Tracker.
I really didn’t think the Prates would risk a QO for Liriano.
Agreed wholeheartedly. I don’t see anyone giving up a 1st rounder plus the contract to steal him, and I don’t think he’s worth $15MM for 1 year.
Boston makes perfect sense. They have a protected 1st round pick and money to spend.
NOO boston doesn’t make perfect sense. They are all about rebuilding with youth and avoiding decisions like giving up draft picks for middle tier FA. Right now the Red Sox seem likely to sign one TOP 3 SP, a 3B, and a middle tier SP. If they sign Shields, Sandoval, and Liriano they lose three of their top 4 picks. No way they do something like that.
They will more than likely lose two or three picks anyways, it’s not like 2nd and 3rd round picks are much worth anyways….. But I don’t want Liriano, he just seems like a bust waiting to happen, especially given the pressure in Boston, and how inconsistent he is. In fact, I see Boston giving up two or three picks, one for a top pitcher (unless they trade for one), another for a middle-level pitcher and, maybe one for Sandoval, but it’s more likely we end up with Headley. Realistically, we end up giving up two picks, maybe three.
They could sign Lester, Headley, McCarthy and most likely avoid all of the draft pick issues, but hey, I’m probably dreaming for that scenario
I forgot that Lester hasn’t got a draft pick attached, making it all the more reason for the Red Sox to target him. As for Headley, I d say we’ll end up with him too, given the fact that it seems most likely Panda re-signs with the Giants. As for McCarthy, I don’t really want him, his health always seems like a concern (even though some incidents have been freak accidents). In other words, I don’t think he’d serve well as a No.2 because of his health, given that is an important factor for your top 2 pitchers. However, if the Red Sox choose to, they could target a no.2 on the trade market, making it possible that they don’t give up a draft pick as long as the price isn’t too steep, otherwise I’d just surrender the pick.
Headley is not a lock for Boston, especially with NYY in the bidding, and I simply suggested McCarthy because he is the best middle tier starter without compensation tied to him.
I don’t want the Sox anywhere near Liriano, way too inconsistent and injury prone. I don’t want or do they need Clay Buchholz 2.0
But you’re still giving up big money and a second rounder for Liriano…
He’s not worth 15 million, for sure. However, at 1 year/15 mil, he gives the Pirates great flexibility since they have a few youngsters (Taillon, Kingham) who will probably be ready late 2015, early 2016. He will probably decline it though. I’m hoping he does decline because while he is often electric, he also comes out flat on way too many occasions for a 1/2 pitcher.
If he does decline (and Martin, too), I’d ink David Ross to a deal. Ross/Stewart at C isn’t sexy but will get the job done behind the plate and bridge the gap to their rising start, Diaz. Use the savings to ink Ervin Santana to a multi-year deal, perhaps adding another mid-rotation guy (Burnett on a one year deal, perhaps).
Rotation of Cole, Santana, Burnett, Morton, Worley is an upgrade. Not extremely formidable, but it sure beats a rotation trotting out Jeff Locke on a regular basis.
I agree the teams that would be interested definitely won’t be interested in giving up a first rounder for him with his inconsistency and injuries.
If I’m Liriano I would accept it and take the 15 million.
Nor did i, because i think theres a better than 50% chance he takes it.
Injury riddled, albeit a solid arm, theres no way he gets near this AAV on a multi-year offer.
But your point about injury moots the AAV point. If he’s a serious injury risk, his emphasis is likely to be maximizing total value, not AAV, becasue his value after next year could be close to zero with a major injury.
Exactly…another major injury and his value could hit rock bottom, so he may just think ill take the $15m now while its on offer, have another good year then parlay that into a longer term lower AAV deal.
If its a choice between 1 yr $15m or say 2 yrs $20m, he may as well take the 1 and go again in FA next winter.
I don’t think there’s much risk of him taking it. They may end up with nothing (if he goes the Stephen Drew route) but they probably end up with the pick.
This is interesting. I think it has to do more with a
mindset that he will reject the offer and the Pirates will acquire a draft
pick. In the worst case scenario the Pirates are “stuck” with him next year but
they can always attempt to trade him at some point if he is healthy.
Hmmm… if Liriano accepts his QO, Martin is as good as gone. NO way they are paying both that kind of money.
Theoretically, both could take the QOs and then they’d be stuck with both, but that won’t happen. Martin is already as good as gone.
Big risk for the Pirates! By accepting the QO (15.3MM) Liriano would make almost as much in one year as he had made in his entire career (19.5MM).
Good point. Something like this could play a factor when deciding if he wants to be the middling player with a pick attached to him.
What does what he’s made have to do with what he’s worth right now?
If I had a protected pick and had confidence in Liriano (which is a whole different issue), I’d go in offering him 2-3 years at $9-11 M AAV ($11 M for the 2 year deal, $9 M for a 3 year deal). Of course, this is assuming he turns down the QO (which I’m not certain he would). Theoretically, I’d look at the Astros to do this.
A 3/30, Scott Feldman-esque offer would sound realistic, but that would have to be from someone with a protected pick and a great deal of hope around his injuries.
I dont think many clubs will be willing to give up a first rounder at this kind of money for Liriano with his injury worries.
Hopefully this type of risk means they’ll be more willing to spend this year (assuming he declines).
Is someone really going to give up a draft choice for Liriano at that kind of money?
I love this move. The Pirates need top-of-the-rotation help, and they aren’t going to sign a Lester or Scherzer. At the next level down (Jason Hammel, say, or Ervin Santana), pretty much everyone will require a multi-year deal. $15m is a little steep, but Liriano offers as much upside as any 2nd tier pitcher, and a one-year bet on him seems about as safe or safer than a 3 year bet on someone like Hammel.
If he accepts, they’ve got one more of their rotation spots filled by a guy who’s healthy, who has shown a decently high floor over the last few years, and who can be great at times. It’s not so expensive that it precludes the signing of other free agents (I’d expect they’d take a flier on some of the oft-injured FAs like Anderson and Johnson), and it doesn’t hamstring them in the future.
And if he declines, hey, free draft pick.
I completely agree. The cavalry (Taillon, Glasnow, Kingham, Sampson, et. al. )is on the way. The Pirates need a bridge to them. Besides, it’s only one year and while it is an overpay, their payroll is already low enough that I don’t think it’s going to bankrupt them. I really hope he accepts it.
Liriano, like Santana, should jump at the QO. Otherwise, he will be like Drew and Morales, last year, waiting around until after the draft to get signed. No one is going to lose a draft pick for him. As for Martin, I can’t see a scenario where the Dodgers get outbid by anyone for him. With Ned being shut out of baseball decisions, there should be no more bad blood between the Dodgers and Martin.
If they both accept the offers the Pirates have $30mil invested in two players, which is 40% of their $77m payroll (2014). I know Martin likely will decline, but it is still a gamble to invest that much of your payroll in two players.
I can’t envision a scenario where Martin accepts. There isn’t any real risk of that.
I also have to imagine after 2 playoff seasons that the Pirates are willing to increase that payroll from $77m.
Okay, let’s say they increase their payroll to $90m (which I find unlikely) and Liriano accepts. That’s still 1/6 of the budget on a #3 starter who hasn’t pitched over 162 innings per season since 2010. I just think it is a risky move by the Pirates to extend the offer to Liriano.
It’s a fair point. But what’s the alternative? Until Morton and Taillon are healthy, the rotation is Cole, Worley and Locke. They can’t afford a Lester or Scherzer. I’m sure they’ll sign another rehab project or two, but there’s risk filling your whole rotation that way. It feels like this is the year they’ll have to spend real dough on a starter, and if it’s not $15m for one year with Liriano, it’ll be $33m over 3 years for someone like Jason Hammel. They might be able to get a comparable pitcher for a smaller annual price, but any other pitcher at that level would need a multiyear deal, which also carries risk.
If Martin accepts and it turns out they can’t afford it, they can still trade him.
They’d trade Liriano before they traded Martin.
I think that pretty much knocks the cubs out of signing martin. I doubt think they want to give up a draft pick yet.
I can’t see a team giving him the 3/30mil it would take to make him decline. Who really wants a guy who throws 160innings of average ball? He would be lucky to get 2/20mil with that pick attached to him.
This is where the QO system starts to depart from reality. We know that the Pirates almost certainly can’t afford both these folk, and Liriano’s offer is actually a slightly risky one. QO does cause a drag on salaries–but not those at the very top of the scale, where numbers get out of sight. I didn’t see anything about Burnett yet-but maybe he’s already told them he won’t take his option. If Burnett takes it, and Liriano takes the QO, that’s a huge amount of cash for a lower market team
Burnett is on the Phillies though.
Right you are. I’m still living in the past, I guess
As a Pirates fan, this hurts. Liriano isn’t worth $15M and he surely isn’t worth 15-20% of the team budget. But the top 3 without him is Cole, Worley, and Locke. Not necessarily the trio you’d want to try to get back to the post-season.
Frankie was lights out again in the 2nd half of 2014, pitched almost as well as he did in 2013. I’m sure teams noticed and he will get some big time offers. Martin is obviously going to decline, but I would really like to see the Pirates offer him a solid deal for 3 years. I know it wouldn’t be enough, but I (as a fan and season ticket holder) would LIKE to see it. I want Liriano back for 2015.
The Pirates aren’t keeping either… Thought Liriano might take QO but now we will lose both and the Pirates will be attached to big names in Free Agency that they will never sign. Then take a chance on some guys that are coming off down years or prospects that never panned out. I’ve been down this road before.
However I hope I’m wrong.