To the surprise of no one, star free agents Max Scherzer and Victor Martinez turned down qualifying offers from the Tigers yesterday. Re-signing Martinez seems to be a priority for GM Dave Dombrowski. More on the Tigers…
- The door is not closed on a new deal with free agent reliever Joba Chamberlain, says Dombrowski, but it’s not a priority right now.
- Dombrowski said he has not talked about an extension with lefty David Price, according to a tweet from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Dombrowski said he knows both sides will want to see free agent prices first. That’s a reference to the current free agent class, says Rosenthal. Price is eligible for free agency after the 2015 season.
- Dombrowski has four prominent starting pitchers under control for 2015 in Price, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Anibal Sanchez. According to Rosenthal, the GM says he is happy with his starters and not looking to move anyone, but will always listen as he has in the past.
- The Tigers announced they have named former big leaguer David Newhan assistant hitting coach to Wally Joyner, replacing the departed Darnell Coles.
I’d be pleasantly surprised if they actually got a deal done with Price. Doubt they’ll do anything this offseason.
If Max doesnt come back then a Price extension has to be high on the to-do list, but i dont see it happening just yet, as DD says both sides are waiting to see what the market gives for Scherzer and Lester, which will then provide a reference point for a potential Price extension.
I think the 6/144 they offered Scherzer plus maybe a little more as Price’s numbers warrant it, maybe 6/160, would maybe get it done.
It will also depend on Martinez’s price. The Tigers need another bat to pair with Cabrera in their lineup more than they need to extend Price.
Yep, i will agree with that, i was going to say it has to be their top priority but then theres the gaping hole known as the Tigers bullpen too, so theres some holes need filling for sure.
I think Price would strongly consider that contract but, I’d say he’ll want a 7th year. So maybe 7/180-185 could get it done? If he is confident however, he could just wait until free agency, where he is bound to get a contract as good as or better than that.
Oh he’ll definitely match the Tigers offer in FA, but theres always that injury risk before then to weigh up.
Hes not a Boras client thankfully so he may be more open to an extension than we think, its hard to know what hes thinking, but he has gone on record to say how at home he already feels in Detroit since the trade.
Still surprised Scherzer didn’t take the 6/144. I thought that was extremely fair. Maybe he gets a 7th year in FA but was it really worth it after paying for that insurance plan? Maybe not.
If the Tigers extend Price, then what about Porcello? He is younger and will be a free agent after the 2015 season.
But the Tigers do need a solid lefty, and Price is exactly that.
It was a mistake for the Tigers to have never extended Porcello. Everyone kept screaming that his sabermetrics suggests he’d breakout and now he has just before free agency.
To late to extend him now because he’s at an all-time career high. Just have to wait to see how he does this season.
I agree totally with that.
Ricky, being a groundball pitcher, simply needed a good defense behind him, his FIP has always been way below his ERA until this year when with a half decent diamond behind him his ERA finally reflected his work.
With a good defense, Porcello is a sub 3.50 ERA pitcher every year (3.43 in ’14) and good for 4 plus WAR going forward.
The fact he wasnt extended years ago means hes now projected for $12.5m in arbitration, a figure that could have been easily halved with an extension before now.
Porcello is not an elite pitcher. He is Doug Fister 2.0. Put a good defense behind him and his numbers could look a lot better.
If they fail with Price and lock up Porcello, then they could remove Castellanos from 3rd base to try to get more value out of Porcello by pairing him with a good 3rd baseman (Headley).
I’ve always been a fan of Chase Headley. I like your idea.
Price had a more consistently elite career than Scherzer or Lester and will become a free agent before his 30th birthday. He will command 200MM+ in free agency.
Price is close to Scherzer over the last 3 years… with Lester a distant third.
1. Scherzer: 16.5 fWAR
2. Price: 15.2
3. Lester: 13.6
A fair contract for Price is in between Scherzer and Lester.
Price has a much longer track record of consistency and quality. I wouldn’t give Scherzer more then what Greinke and Hamels got in their deals.
Price and Scherzer have pitched about the same number of innings.
Price will have more mileage on his arm when he becomes a free agent in 2015, lowering his value compared to Scherzer this year.
At 6/144, Price would get a nice jump over his projected Arb.$$$ for 2015($18.9 mill per Matt Swartz). They could even go 7/169 and, if necessary, have an opt out clause after 5 years. Structure it as $19mill in 2015 and then $25 mill for next 6. Gives Price top market value and the ability to test the market again after 5. Tigers get a top Lefty for about the same $$ as the Scherzer deal. If it turns out that Scherzer gets about the same deal now that Detroit offered, then Price might be nudged to sign now.
Taking an average between fWAR and rWAR (which will account for ERA rather than FIP alone) and going back four years (which is more predictive than three):
Lester 14.9
Price 18.3
Scherzer 18.7
Another season of consistency and another year of inflation should put Price ahead of both.
Conclusion is the same Price is almost at Scherzer level. Lester is a level lower.
Price is NOT a free agent THIS year… so it is fair to give him a contract offer this offseason that is between the other two.
“A free agent before 30” is misleading. He’s 13 months younger than Scherzer and reaching free agency 12 months later. There’s no significant difference there.
The triple M players are special for the Tigers. Glad to see they are still in win mode now. If DD fixes the bullpen and they are back in the game.
So Dombrowski… you trade to get Price, allow Scherzer to walk, and now try to extended Price beyond or what? Go through the same thing again with Price like you did with Scherzer?
Why assume that Scherzer is the same personality as Price? Why risk $100MM+ (if you get injured) when you can get a market value contract today? I would say that less than 50% of players would do what Scherzer did last year. Just look at Lester and his willingness to take a reasonable hometown discount last year.
Price was insurance for Scherzer leaving. He may sign for the same contract as Scherzer was offered last year +5%. If not, then there is nothing wrong with getting a $30MM player in his peak for one year at less than $20MM and then getting a top draft pick.
Is it possible that Scherzer’s contract could dip UNDER the original Tigers offer?
Who is going to give him more than $144MM?