Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is quickly becoming one of the most hyped amateurs in history, and it’s expected that he will absolutely shatter the record for an amateur player — international or domestic — according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Passan spoke to a pair of GMs and two other executives, and all four agreed that they expect the 19-year-old Moncada to land an incredible $30-40MM bonus.
While that bonus doesn’t necessarily seem steep right off the bat, at least when juxtaposed with the commitments made to countrymen Yoenis Cespedes ($36MM), Yasiel Puig ($42MM), Jose Abreu ($68MM) and Rusney Castillo ($72.5MM), bear in mind that each of those players was viewed as a professional under baseball’s collective bargaining agreement and therefore was not subject to international spending limitations.
Moncada, on the other hand, will be subject to spending limits, but executives that spoke with Passan still seemed to believe the price tag could approach $40MM. That would obliterate any team’s bonus pool, and a signing team would have to pay a 100 percent luxury tax on all overages (in addition to subsequently being prohibited from spending more than $300K on a player in the next two signing periods). In that regard, then, a team would essentially be dropping $60-80MM to add Moncada to its farm system, based on the range Passan received in his poll of execs.
As Passan notes, Moncada has yet to be unblocked by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control or Major League Baseball, so the timeline for his arrival on the free agent market is uncertain, but the timing of his arrival is critical. If Moncada isn’t declared a free agent until next year’s signing period (the current signing period runs through June 15, 2015), the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox would not be able to sign him, as the penalties they’ve incurred prevent them from signing a player for more than $300K in the next two signing periods. If he’s declared a free agent in the current signing period, the Rangers and Cubs, who exceeded their bonus pool in the 2013-14 signing period, would not be able to sign him.
Nearly every team was on-hand today in Guatemala to see a Moncada showcase, although Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets that the Angels weren’t there to see him (they’ve seen him in the past, Fletcher notes).
MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo spoke to multiple scouts who were on-hand, with one scout giving Moncada a 60 hit-tool, 60 power, 70 speed, a 60 arm and a 50 in terms of fielding (on the 20-80 scouting scale). A scouting director told Mayo that Moncada is “worth going way over your international spending pool,” adding that the game is ultimately about talent, and Moncada “is the kind of talent worth the investment.” Another touted his five-tool potential and said he was in great shape. Mayo hears that Moncada looked better at third and second than shortstop, though he has the arm to play any infield position. The Yankees, Red Sox, Braves and Cubs all had four or more scouts in attendance, per Mayo.
Those wishing to learn more about the potential phenom can check out this report on him from Baseball America’s Ben Badler penned back in August.
Okay, this is getting really ridiculous…
That’s what the open market is.
40MM + luxury tax for a 19 year old seems a little excess.
Based on what?
The number of prospects who fail?
Ya, but it is just opportunity cost given the market value for talent. If you think the talent is there and you have a certain valuation for elite level mlb talent, then I am not sure I see how it is clearly excessive. It is a gamble with real risk, but that that itself doesn’t make it excessive.
A $70 million dollar gamble seems excessive to me. Especially when you can get decent mlb talent at that price….
Consider a team like the Dodgers or Yankees that have luxury cap problems.
The tax on the overage won’t hurt their cap room. It’s similar to signing a Japanese player with regard to the posting fee not counting against the cap.
So it’s a good way for the team like the Yankees to spend big without it hurting their plans to get under the luxury threshold eventually.
That bonus is taxed at 100% – much higher than any luxury tax level.
I think you are missing my point. The gamble depends on the information you have to assess his talent and chances of success. We don’t have that info, so we cannot determine what they are basing their valuations on. As a result, we can’t really determine if it is excessive. It is not excessive just because it is a lot of money and you can get other talent for that amount.
If we are talking $70M, he would have to be worth 1.7 WAR for every year of team control to be worth it. That is pretty high expectation or a high school kid.
If anything, it shows how chronically underpaid draftees are. The couple top picks could be receiving this type of money if the market shows this. MLBPA will go insane with draft demand in the next CBA if a kid gets this kind of money.
This is why the biggest agents rant and rave about players getting ripped off when they are drafted. The sane players, should they be allowed to reach the open market, would be worth 10-20 times as much as their pool limits.
Would like him for the Giants if they miss out on re-signing Pablo. They need to get younger, and have no hitting prospects to speak of.
I’m really interested to see what Moncada eventually gets. He’s getting hyped up quite a bit now.
$40MM plus a 100% tax rate for whichever team signs him is unbelievable. Not many teams are going to take a “bite at that apple”. Going to be interesting to see what his final price tag is when he does get freed up.
This move have Andrew Friedman all over it.
Would love to see him opposite of Abreu. That’s a whole lot of $$$$ though.
The guy seems like a real deal, but thats too way money for a 19 prospect!
Yankees, Yankees, Yankees.
Yep. This has Yankees written all over it. Some $80 million for a 19 year old is a risk, but it’s one that very few teams can take. The Yankees are one of them and we need middle infielders.
Go get ’em, Sandy!
You wanna be aggressive for a SS? This is it.
In our dreams… But actually I’ve heard sandy is not thrilled with any of the other options out there at short, and doesn’t seem satisfied with wilmer either. So maybe well be the dark horse in this race…
And Brady Aiken can’t get 5 million. Funny world.
“2015 top draft prospect leaves the country and establishes residency in Haiti hoping to land a $140M deal!”
Actually been reading reports his velocity is down in Fall Ball. It’s still Fall Ball so take it as a grain of salt.
Because he has an abnormality in his arm
Please, if he was given FA status, Aiken, abnormality or not would still score way more than 5mil or the 6.5 mil originally agreed upon.
Very true. However, keep in mind, that the amateur draft is almost limited to the slot values. Teams are not likely to use their entire allotment on one prospect.
What level would he land at in a farm system? Surely he is not mlb ready..
I am thinking AA however, he is closer to the MLB Level then it may seem. He could probably be up in two years easily IMO. The guy’s slash line was .277/.388/380 (OPS of .768) with 4 homeruns and 21 SBs during two years in Cuba. So, the kid has an opportunity to increase his power IMO which should happen as he gets stronger, as well as being able to hit for a higher batting average. Seems as though he has great OBP skills already, which is a big plus. Not sure he is worth 40 million plus tax, as well as having restraints in the international market the next two years.
How on earth could you possibly know how close he is to the majors when, like all of us, you probably never heard of him until this month?
A top 19 year old prospect would find themselves in A+ or maybe AA, but high class A would probably make the most sense although it all depends when he signs and how he looks in camp.
Yeah, I could see High A as a possibility. I was just basing Moncada’s numbers and other recent defects as examples in why I’d think he is two years away. Guess that was a bit of a stretch…..
Considering the Cuban league is close to Low-A. I would assume start at Low-A with an early promotion to High-A
I didn’t think the Cuban league was consider to be as low as Low A…I always assumed it to be more of a AA, High A type of Level, especially given the fact that majority of their best defects have been able to come here and play at the MLB Level almost immediately. Granted, these guys had more success than Moncado but, could they really make a jump from Low A to the MLB Level so quick?
This is not my personal opinion, multiple writers have said that Cuban League is close to Low-A. Puig, Cespedes and Abreu were ML ready players despite the league they were playing at, they posted elite record-breaking numbers in the Cuban league and were all in the cusp of their prime when they signed.
I’m kind of hoping he gets record money and fails miserably at the MLB level. Then teams might be cautious again instead of dishing out such big money for guys who have never played pro ball in the US.
Rooting for failure? I hope the kid becomes the next Clemente and it encourages more teams to scout better and younger internationally. Overall I think it’s great for the game, having players from all over the globe is a sign of the great health of baseball. Clearly baseball is thriving so much that they can afford these contracts. Outside of baseball, I have a feeling that the wave of Cuban ball players could help repair the relationship between the US and Cuba. Cuban’s love their ball players and seeing them leave in record numbers should motivate their leaders towards a better solution. It really is shameful that we haven’t found a way to resolve our issues with one of closest and poorest neighbors.
Not hating, I just don’t like the amount of money involved recently in international free agency. I mean even if a team stinks, they get one first round pick which is usually hit or miss. Recently the big markets sign guys like Iwakuma, Puig, Tanaka which seem to have a better success rate recently than amateur draft picks.
In terms of the relationship between Cuba and US, as someone quite familiar with Latin American politics, I can guarantee it will do nothing. There’s so much more behind the embargo than most people realize.
Haters gonna hate
I can’t think of many recent international players who have failed. Irabu, Matsuzaka…?? I would say he’s worth the risk for that cash.
Especially the most recent influx of Cuban talent. Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Abreu, Aroldis Chapman…they’ve all had big time success at the major league level. This is absolutely worth the risk.
Agreed. The players coming from Cuba have been well worth the money so far. It’s only a matter of time before one of them is a bust, but thats bound to happen regardless. I think international scouting has gotten better. Darvish, Tanaka, and the assortment of Cuban players to come into MLB recently have been worth the money.
We don’t hear about the failures. Just last year the Dodgers signed Alexander Guerrero a 27 year old Cuban for 4/$28m who only got 13 PAs in the bigs. They also signed 23 year old Cuban Erisbel Arruebarruena for 5/$25m – he got 45 PAs in the bigs. Maybe next season they will break out but Guerrero is 27 already.
Guerrero got most of his ear bitten off by Miguel Olivo right before he would’ve been called up because he was hitting really well in Triple A. Arruebarruena was signed for his defense which is worth every penny of that $25m. Both of them could still live up to their contracts
30-40 million??? Well that escalated quickly…
So since the Cubs and Rangers are not eligible to sign an international player for more than $250,000, would it be considered tampering of any sort if they started negotiating with Moncada prior to June 15, 2015 once Moncada is declared a free agent and cleared by OFAC?
It seems that if Moncada is “cleared” by mid-May to early June that he’d effectively be able to create a bidding war that includes all of the Yanks, Red Sox, Rangers & Cubs. He starts the bidding war and then depending who is on top they execute the contract either June 14 or June 16 depending on who’s in the driver seat.
Is there any reason that couldn’t be the case?
Moncada wait til June 16.