The Tigers learned today that closer Joe Nathan will be lost for the year to Tommy John surgery. While the 40-year-old was coming off a rough season, he opened the year installed in the 9th and was obviously an important part of the club’s plans. His hefty salary doesn’t make things any easier, although that cost was inked into the books long ago.
Of course, GM Dave Dombrowski had already added a player with closing experience and stuff at last year’s trade deadline. Joakim Soria will handle save situations going forward, and that gives some comfort. But his ascension reduces the quality and depth of the earlier innings. Simply using Soria to get the final out hardly addresses the fact that it will now be more difficult to get to the spot where he’ll be called upon.
Detroit’s bullpen was already a concern entering the year (as it has been in the past). As MLBTR’s Steve Adams discussed in reviewing the Tigers’ offseason, the club did little more than replace Phil Coke with Tom Gorzelanny. To be sure, young righty Bruce Rondon is expected to bring a big arm when he finally returns from Tommy John surgery. But he is still working cautiously back after an earlier setback.
The results have hardly been disastrous thus far, with the Tigers hovering around the middle of the league in terms of reliever ERA. But xFIP and SIERA paint much less promising pictures of the club’s collective relief effort thus far. And, for what it’s worth, projection systems don’t expect many above-average run prevention efforts to emerge from the Detroit pen.
Given the entirety of the situation, there are several ways the team could react. It does have a nice rotation and can put up a lot of runs, after all, so perhaps there’s little reason to act hastily. On the other hand, the Tigers are firmly in win-now mode and could face a drawn out division battle, so every victory matters.
And there are some prominent players with late-inning experience who could be had. Jonathan Papelbon of the Phillies is among the most available players in the game, and may not cost much in prospects if Detroit will assume a good piece of his salary. Even more conveniently, experienced righty Rafael Soriano is still a free agent. It is obviously rare to have a clear option like that still sitting on the open market in late April, making him an obvious possibility.
While it is probably too early for any teams to give up completely on their seasons, that doesn’t mean that some clubs wouldn’t consider moving a useful arm at the right price — motivated, in part, by a rough open to the season. The Brewers, in particular, have dug a monumental hole in a very tough division and have some younger arms they could justify promoting. Jonathan Broxton might be had for little more than salary relief.
Most other clubs will probably be hesitant to part with depth, but could always be convinced at the right price — particularly if Detroit is looking mostly for competent veterans to plug into the middle innings. While they are hardly shaping up to be a seller, for instance, the Padres have plenty of depth and an obvious willingness to get creative in making deals. The more likely scenario, of course, would be to keep a close eye on the waiver wire. The Dodgers, after all, have been aggressively adding (and, in some cases, outrighting) other teams’ cast-offs to bolster their depth.
Let’s see what MLBTR readers recommend:
Great Article. Loved It!
I went with “Summer Shopping List”…. but I do have another idea.
It is clear that Verlander is not 100%. Why not make him the 8th Inning guy ONLY for this year? It would reduce is workload and let his arm heal. It may also help build back his velocity a bit or it may let him experiment with reinventing himself.
The Tigers would need to do a sales job with him. Tell him it is only a 2015 thing and it is being done to help the team and allow him to get into action quicker without any setbacks.
In fact, if all goes well, perhaps he even goes back to being a starter in the second half.
Thanks.
I will let you be the one to take the heat for suggesting that Verlander move – I’d be accused of trying for a hot take!
He makes way too much money to be an 8th inning guy.. $28 mil for one inning probably will never happen.. No matter how much sense it makes..
That’s addition by subtraction. Verlander is more valuable as an innings eater in the 5 man rotation. If you put him in the pen, you need to get a new SP. Detroit went out and got 2 new SP over the winter because they did not feel the guys in AA or AAA were ready. That has not changed. It will be easier to get a new BP guy than replace a SP.
My guess is that they will use their AA and AAA arms to prop up the pen. When nobody steps up to fill the set up spot, DD will get someone outside the organization.
Precisely. Maybe JV would stabilize the 8th (and let’s face it, IF he ever accepted being sent to the BP I really doubt it would be to do anything other than close) but it means you have Kyle Lobstein as the 5th starter. Sure you can keep a lead better late in the game, but you’re not going to have as many leads.
The Tigers won the AL Central last year with a weaker overall team than this year, with Lobstein as their #5 starter at the end of the year.
The ALC is far stronger this year.
Really? How many wins will win the Central this year?
Remember that the SECOND placed team in the Central got to game 7 of the World Series with the tying run on 3rd in the 9th inning. (Tigers were 13-6 v. the Royals last year I believe).
Yes, and that team that got to the WS is better….as are the Sox and Twins. Only the Indians went backwards.
My simple question:How many wins will be needed to win the Central this year?
Will that be higher or lower than the other two divisions?
92 in my magic number that gets the Tigers in.. it may be as a wildcard, but that is the number they need to get to to have a 95% of getting in.
They still match up very well v. KC, because Miggy and VMART can hit good pitching, the team can hit HRs (effective way to avoid spectacular OF defense). And the Tigers Catchers are good v. Steals.
Why does that get the Tigers in? They have to play the other ALC teams almost half their schedule.
I still like Royals, Tigers, Sox, and the Twins/Indians for 4th is a toss up. All this is assuming some injuries, but not major long-term injuries to impact players.
For an average team, I would agree with you… however, the Tigers have been so poor in the bullpen, that it is getting to the point of being outright demoralizing.
Tigers won last year, despite a 4.54 ERA from Verlander last year. A mix and match of borderline #5s can match that.
The Giants did it with Lincecum and were very successful. No reason the Tigers cannot use a similar strategy.
How do you know that Verlander’s arm will permit him to warm up 5-6 times a week and pitch in a game 4-5 times?
This is not computer baseball. Many ex-starting pitchers do not have the arm to pitch out of the pen more then 2-3 times a week. You give a guy $28M for that?
I don’t. But, how do you know that Verlander’s arm will permit him to be effective this year with 180+ innings over the rest of the season?
And what make you think he cannot be Eckersley or Smoltz?
Not sure I understand how pitching 180 innings is better than pitching 60. I don’t follow that logic.
$28MM is irrelevant. It is sunk cost (just like with Lincecum). Verlander is NOT 100%. The question now is what to do given the team’s urgent needs.
I tend to believe that if he has arm problems, having him pitch often without giving him 4 or so days between appearances and keeping him on a mild throwing schedule is going to be a higher risk to continued arm problems. I’m basing that on the fact that he always pitches full out. I’d be good with him warming up and pitching 2 times a week, but this sunk cost nonsense is simply nonsense – you don’t pay a guy that can pitch $28M to throw 2 innings a week.
The idea is interesting and would be a bold move. I just don’t see the Tigers even thinking about it. First, they are very loyal to their players and would not just pull him out of the rotation after all he has done for the franchise. Second, his troubles as a starter are somewhat injury related and they will give him every opportunity to get back into the rotation. Lastly, JV’s ego would not allow him to do it till he is sure his ability to be a SP is over.
I don’t know all the details regarding Lincecum and if his demotion was injury related. I am not sure how similar their situations are, but I will take your word for it.
Step one: fire whoever is in charge of evaluating bullpen talent, the Tigers haven’t had a good bullpen since 2006.
Can you name one “expert” who thought that Nathan or Soria would be a bust last year (at the time they joined the Tigers)?
Both moves were universally praised. It is not like they went out of the box with a crazy idea. They got the best available closer BOTH in the offseason and at the trading deadline in 2014.
I think that one “Big Papi” HR ruined the rational thing… locking up Benoit.
The problem with Benoit wasn’t that one home run, it’s that he has a general home run problem. He likes to give up solo shots in close games.
The problem with that logic is that the Dodgers needed bullpen help this past offseason. Their FO brought in guys no one heard of and they were universally praised as having a weak bullpen. In fact, their bullpen has been quite good.
The Tigers have had Benoit, Valverde, Grilli, Rodney and Soria recently. They just never keep it together during the playoffs long enough for a championship.
They were all on really awful bullpens. That Detroit has had bullpen meltdowns multiple times in the playoffs proves my point really.
That’s just not true. The fact that they got there 4 years in a row disproves it. My point is not that they were good. They just never clicked. The talent was there. The consistency was not.
Having that rotation and offense together for the past 4-5 years should get you to the playoffs every year.
Fair point, unless you have an “awful” bullpen. Remember, they have had considerable playoff successes, including beating the A’s three straight years.
Grilli was with the Tigers 7 years ago, and he was terrible. Don’t think I’d call that recent.
He said 2006. Not me.
We are talking about evaluating talent. He had talent, but terribly inconsistent results.
The only option I don’t think should be the case in the long run is do nothing, but that isn’t necessarily brought on by losing Nathan, they’ve needed to address the bullpen since the off season. Soria is fine as a closer should they go that route/he continues to handle it well but they need some replenishment other than that pretty badly.
I went with add cheap depth. Just like in fantasy, don’t pay for closers! All of the expensive options on the trade and free agent markets could be complete busts. Do like the Rays do: stack yourself with undervalued commodities and let the cream rise to the top.
I know it’s rather early, but Tampa’s bullpen probably isn’t a good example to follow at this point(4.99 ERA overall for the pen,2nd highest in the league).
Look at Rays saves leaders by year. Fernando Rodney earned under $1.75M in 2012 and $2.5M in 2013. Jake McGee earned $1.45M in 2014. In 2011, Farnsworth earned $2.6M. 2010 was the only year with a significant investment and that was Soriano which was arrived at through a trade with the Braves who didn’t plan on Soriano accepting arbitration. I just don’t get the point in paying Soriano whenever Soria could do just as good or better.
Works good in theory if you do it quietly in the off season like Oakland
and a few others…
Key is to stack your team and farm with as many good, young arms as possible
and then a certain percentage will pan out…
People on Facebook clamoring for Soriano and Papelbon to come in as closers. I guess they were so used to mediocrity with Nathan that they’ve failed to notice the job Soria’s done. Try to find an 8th inning guy/bullpen depth, allow Soria to keep doing what he’s doing.
Either of those guys could be added to pitch the 8th.
Agreed – I just don’t understand the desire from some to have either of those guys come in and unseat Soria for the closer’s position. Seems… odd to me.
Agree – this isn’t a matter of finding a solution for the 9th.
I haven’t heard that either of them would consider that. In fact, best I recall, they opposed it. Did I miss something?
Soriano signed with the Yankees years back to be the 8th inning guy and has no realistic possibility of signing as a closer at this point, so don’t see why not.
Papelbon … not sure if the Tigers are on his no-trade list, but if not he’d have no say. If they are, then that would pose an issue because of his vesting clause, though who knows if he’d be interested.
That’s all they need, a disgruntled Papelbon making a fortune.
When Boras decides Soriano has no chance to be a closer and no better team to build his value, then I agree that could be a possibility, if they can agree on money and years with the Tigers being up against the cap.
Papelbon would not be happy as set up help. Soriano has set up for the Yankees in the past.
They have many very good arms parked at AAA and AA
that could see action.
And, they have some very good arms at high A ball very promising draft picks
that could be accelerated quickly to the bigs…
Buck Farmer, Kevin Ziomeck, Austin Kubitza, Spencer Turnbull, Joe Jimenez, Drew Ver Hagen, Melvin Mercedes and much much more..
Soriano is a non starter…
Tigers are much more likely to find few other relievers either internally
or by trades…
I can see them looking at KRod or Pappelbon or both…
The Yankees have a ton of bullpen depth.. They could get a good quality lefty from them seeing as how the Yanks have 4 with 2 stuck at AAA (Wilson, Shreve, Lindgren, Miller). Also, the Padres have plenty of depth as well.. Lots of Pads fans complaining about Quackenbush being stuck in AAA..
I wouldn’t mind if the Yankees dealt from the awesome pen depth they’ve got right now(though I don’t think it’d have to be a lefty) as long as it’s not just for nothing other than opening up a spot for the next arm in line. Otherwise I’d rather they just hold onto their depth for now.
I would bet Wilson could probably be gotten on the cheap seeing as they picked him up for Cervelli over the winter.. Lindgren and Shreve are young and I am pretty sure Miller is untouchable..
Hey I liked Cervi! (fair point though)
Wilson is a pretty intriguing power arm but if they could get something that benefits them mutually I’d think he could be had. Martin is another guy who is likely obtainable. After that, it’d probably be tougher to pry someone away.
I am not sure about Martin.. Rogers could probably be had really cheap though.. With Capuano coming back soon and I would hope he would move into the longman spot that would free up Rogers or possible Martin.. Plus when Nova comes back somebody else will have to move to the pen.. Barring injury the Yanks are going to have to trade a couple of arms soon..
I liked Cervelli too but he never stayed healthy..
When Cap comes back, he’s likely to slot back into the rotation because Warren doesn’t look like a long term answer and has had success in the pen, and I feel like when Nova is back, Cap will follow suit and become a long man out of the pen unless he looks really good in the rotation. I’m pretty sure Rogers is out of options,which would make moving him hard. But I agree they’ve got to address the stockpile at some point, hopefully in a way that benefits them elsewhere.
Grilli? Soriano? These guys are old enough for the Tigers liking
Dear Detriot Tigers,
Just sign Soriano. Please. Kind of have a MLBTR free agent contest to win.
Sincerly,
Dynasty22
Papelbon is the answer to the Tigers need for a CLOSER. He was last year too, and see how well that went when the Tigers wouldn’t deal for him. Their window is closing quick, and if they wait til July for the trade market to open up, they will once again find themselves out in the cold.
Trade for Papelbon – he’s Detroit’s answer to getting a shut the door, lights out Closer
They already have a closer.
Best closer available who does not come with a Melvin Upton.
Somebody would have picked him up already if they didn’t have to deal with Amaro.. I am sure DD gave him a call and Amaro said sure you can have him but we want good value back like J.D. Martinez for starters plus a prospect or 2..
Tigers don’t need a closer, Soria has been lights out as closer. They need middle relief and prima donna Papelbon would never accept that because he thinks he’s more important than his team. The problem isn’t closing, it’s mid-relief… ie. expecting Rondon to be healthy or effective (Joel Zumaya anyone?), expecting Al-Al to throw strikes after 4 straight seasons of control problems, expecting Joba to suddenly figure it out and be consistent, and then praying that some of their young guys just “arrive.”
How is there window “closing quick”? Assuming that Avila is replaced by McCann at the end of the year, the Tigers will be new (Since opening day 2013) at C, 1st, 2nd, SS, 3rd, LF, CF and RF. That is EVERY Position!
Miggy is getting older, V-Mart is already old… Verlander is a shell of what he once was, and they will most likely lose Cespedes and Price to FA. The bullpen has been bad..
Tigers at their best had Hunter in RF, Jackson in CF, Peralta at SS along with younger and better Miggy and V-Mart. They had Verlander as an Ace, Scherzer and Fister….
Iglesias, Gose, Greene and Simon are not even close to being the players they lost. Yes, their window is closing quick because of these reasons, but also because every other team in the AL Central has improved greatly while the Tigers haven’t.
Are you disagreeing with this evaluation? And do you also disagree that Papelbon would really help this team?
Younger and better V-Mart? I don’t think what he did last year at age 35 was at what anyone could be considered “young”.
He’s been on the Tigers now for 4 years – I was referring to his previous years and not just last year’s production. He’ll never again do what he did last year, but they are paying him that way.. In any case, I stick with my original point, that the Tigers window to win a WS is closing quickly, and that Papelbon may just be the closer they have been seeking the past few years. Papelbon is still an elite closer, and he has the performances to prove that.
I wouldn’t rule out anything on Victor Martinez. The guy posting career highs at 35 are pretty unprecedented in the post-steroid era. Regardless, things come out of nowhere in baseball. For all we know J.D Martinez could be the 2016 MVP. It’s not always down hill for a team just because a few guys are aging. Not when Free Agency exists in baseball and the Tigers have a large payroll to deal with every year.
Brian Wilson is available.
You mean the new Rick Vaughn?
I put “wait and see” on this one…however, there are good arms who could be had for cheap signings. But you cannot rely on a 40-year old arm without good backup options.
The Tigers are going to have to think outside the box if they are going to strengthen their set up spot without trading Steven Moya. Delabar in Toronto is intriguing, though the Toronto bullpen has its own problems. Since he didn’t make the team out of spring training, perhaps he burned his ties to the team? He’s definitely a Dombrowski type of arm.
They have a great trade relationship with Texas, go out and try to swap for Feliz, send some minor leaguers back to Texas and go out and win the world series.
“His hefty salary doesn’t make things any easier […]”
Doesn’t his injury actually make things easier because now insurance will cover his salary instead of the Tigers?
Celebrate?
One thing can you mention in this article, does Joe Nathan’s contract come with Injury insurance money? Might help in facilitating a deal for Papelbon or K-Rod.
Yes. 50% Covered.
That does help the pocketbook but does nothing to make more room under the luxury tax. That issue is one that is key to what they will do going forward in 2015. My guess is they want to stay under it at all costs. It will take a “can’t miss opportunity ” to present itself for them to climb over it.
I feel bad for Nathan as a human being…but on the field, why is this a loss?
Nathan’s ERA as a Tiger is 4.78. Without Nathan, Tiger relievers this year have an ERA of 3.73.