In his latest column at GammonsDaily.com, legendary journalist Peter Gammons writes that while we often get caught up in the fascination of which big names will be dealt, the best moves oftentimes look incremental at first glance. The Cubs’ acquisition of Jake Arrieta in 2013’s Scott Feldman trade wasn’t one of the most notable moves that year, but it’s been a coup for Chicago. Likewise, the three-team deal that sent Jose Iglesias to Detroit, Avisail Garcia/Frankie Montas to the White Sox and Jake Peavy to Boston was notable, but the impact of the deal looks far greater now than it did at the time. The Indians’ acquisition of Corey Kluber from the Padres in a three-team deal that sent Jake Westbrook to St. Louis and Ryan Ludwick to San Diego didn’t look particularly exciting, either, and the Giants have had huge success with additions like Javier Lopez and Marco Scutaro. All are good examples to keep in mind when looking at any trade that occurs over the next 11 days.
Some highlights from the rumors and rumblings that Gammons hears as the trade deadline nears…
- The Red Sox were optimistic coming out of the break, but their offensive woes through two games have the team wondering about selling pieces of value from the big league roster. At the same time, however, the Sox haven’t ruled out Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels. A Cueto acquisition seems particularly contradictory, given his status as a rental. However, Gammons notes that the Sox have considered the move, thinking that he could help them make a run and that a rental might give them an inside edge on signing him in free agency. Gammons is the second journalist to mention this today, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford offered a similar take earlier.
- The Padres were taking bids on pending free agents during the All-Star break, but they’re wondering if improved pitching can carry them into relevancy late in the year. The Padres had an ERA over 4.00 as a team each month but are sitting at 2.93 through 113 2/3 July innings. It’s a small sample, of course, but the team’s talented rotation has underperformed for much of the year. (A suspect defensive alignment can’t have helped matters, of course.)
- The Reds are the “primary seller to watch,” says Gammons, and as one GM points out, it’ll be somewhat unfamiliar territory for the club. “It’s not easy for them,” the GM told Gammons. “Walt Jocketty has been so successful over the years, he hasn’t had much experience with the sell mode. [Owner Bob] Castellini has been reluctant to pack it in.”
- The Red Sox may have at one point discussed Cueto, but Gammons writes that the Astros are presently willing to rent the Cincinnati ace. The Royals could be in that boat as well, he adds.
- Jeff Samardzija is another big rental name on the market, and while the White Sox are hesitant to sell, they expect him to test free agency and know that the Astros and Blue Jays are willing to rent. Gammons adds that the Blue Jays, in particular, have also expressed interest in both Ian Kennedy of the Padres and Mike Leake of the Reds.
- The Dodgers make the most sense for Hamels, and while multiple reports have indicated that they won’t part with Corey Seager or Julio Urias, Gammons hears that they may be hesitant to move prospects in their next tier. Los Angeles is reluctant to part with either right-hander Jose De Leon or catcher Austin Barnes, per Gammons. An NL GM called Phillies president-in-waiting Andy MacPhail a “cautious, prudent trader” and noted that unlike Samardzija, Cueto, Leake, Kennedy and Scott Kazmir, Hamels doesn’t have to be traded right now.
- The Royals, Nationals, Cubs, Mets, Yankees and Pirates are all in the mix for Ben Zobrist at this time.
- Another GM told Gammons that there are “at least 16 teams” that are pursuing bullpen help. The Braves’ Jim Johnson is drawing quite a bit of interest, with the Blue Jays and Red Sox among the teams to reach out to Atlanta for the purpose of inquiry.
if the Dodgers are gonna go after Hamels, it should be an obvious trade-chip to include Alex Guerrero (along with getting him to waive his clauses so he can be a full time player with the Phillies for 16/17 then hit Free Agency having proven himself a starter). But if he stays in LA, its like keeping Ruth in Boston… this guy homers every 10-12 at bats. LET HIM!
Guerrero can become a free agent after the season if he’s traded. I don’t see any reason he’d waive that right to lock himself into $10MM total over the next two seasons. He could sign a one-year deal this winter and probably make something similar while positioning himself to hit free agency a year sooner.
There’s no real incentive for the Phillies to ask for him in a trade.
He’s already stated he would waive it for a starting role.
Guerrero hasn’t stated it, unless I completely missed that, in which case I’m misinformed. There’s been a report citing an anonymous source saying he’d consider it, but Guerrero’s a Scott Boras client as well. I have a difficult time seeing him advertise that he’d waive that right to get at-bats. Maybe it’s the case, but I have a difficult time envisioning Boras sacrificing that kind of leverage.
Here’s a reason he might: At the moment his market is as a glorified utility player, a role into which he is probably stuck for as long as he’s with the Dodgers. If he believes his value is as a regular, and we can be sure he and his agent do, then he has to get himself a starting assignment somewhere, and prove it. Sometimes you have to give up leverage to get leverage.
Hamels may not HAVE to be traded right now, but the Phillies would be stupid to not trade him. His value isn’t going to get any higher.
I don’t think this is accurate. Hamels is pitching poorly at the moment, and if you wait his deal gets more and more attractive. I think you get more frankly if you wait until the off-season.
Based on the money the name free agent pitchers will be getting this off-season, Hamels contract will be extremely reasonable by comparison.
So, you view a 33 year old pitcher with more innings on his arm than Shields had at 33 should make more per season than Shields? Remember that Shields main drawbacks when he was fishing for a contract was that he was older (33) and had too many innings on his arm.. Hamels is a bit under market value this year but will be over market value moving forward when his arm crosses the 2000 inning plateau..
Cole is also WAY BETTER than Shields
For the record, 33-year old Cole Hamels will be 31 until December.
As long as Cole is healthy, a few starts isn’t going to change how other teams view him. The longer the Phillies hold on to him, the riskier it gets. The last thing the Phillies need is Cliff Lee 2.0 happening.
This off-season is probably the worst time to shop him, too many aces are available. If the Phillies fail to trade him before the deadline, then their best move is to wait til next year’s deadline. And in my eyes, holding him for another year is way too risky. If you’re getting no good offers, it’s one thing. But now is the time to move if you get a fair deal.
And all of that is coming from a Phillies fan.
Yes and at next year’s trade deadline Cole will be one year older with 1 less year on his contract. I can’t see anyone offering more for him then than they would now. And as you mentioned, there’s always the risk that he gets injured between now and then.
When you put it like that, sure, I could see your point. But you’re also leaving out the fact that by waiting until the off season to shop him, you’re dealing with a crowded market of top end starters. On top of that, every bit of waiting means less team control for an acquiring team. If a team isn’t willing to give the haul the team really wants now, why would they feel inclined to do so in a few months? It’s not as if his value has really taken a hit because of a poor few starts.
So what if he’s pitching poorly right now? Everyone goes through rough patches and every team in baseball knows how good he really is. There’s no way they get more for him by waiting until the offseason. The deadline is when teams overpay for that needed piece to aid them in their playoff push and plenty of teams need a frontline starter right now. The demand for Hamels will be nowhere near as high in the offseason.
Why would anyone trade good prospects in the offseason when they can just buy a pitcher via FA? Teams always pay more in trades during the season. Not to mention he could blow out his arm next month and then they get nothing.
Because (A) he’s cost controlled, which is very important for the mid-market clubs and (B) just because you want to sign an available pitcher doesn’t mean he will sign with you.
You have a point but still, no one is going to offer as much prospect-wise during the offseason as they would at the deadline.
Red Sox should just trade all their pending free agents and try to outbid everyone for Cueto in the offseason. Trading for him now won’t make him any more likely to sign with him in the offseason. He’s going to take the best offer he gets no matter what.
I doubt Astros fans were dancing in the Astrodome parking lot when Larry Anderson was sent to the Red Sox for Jeff Bagwell, either. :)