Padres righty James Shields has cleared revocable trade waivers, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter). This means that Shields is now free to be dealt to any team. As Olney notes, it’s no surprise that Shields cleared waivers, as he is one of “lots of big-contract players” who are going unclaimed, as is often the case during the August waiver period.
Shields figured heavily in several trade rumors prior to the July 31 deadline, though he and several other Padres veterans stayed put as general manager A.J. Preller chose to stand pat in the hope that his team could make a late charge. This hope has yet to pan out, as San Diego is 2-7 in August. Dealing free agents like Justin Upton or Ian Kennedy now will be much more difficult for the Padres given the waiver process, not to mention moving controllable young pieces like Tyson Ross.
Shields is an interesting case, however, as high-payroll teams in need of starting pitching could still conceivably make a move for the veteran right-hander. Shields is owed roughly $2.25MM for the remainder of this season, and then $21MM in each of the next three seasons, plus a $16MM club option (with a $2MM buyout) for 2019. He can also opt out of his deal following the 2016 season, meaning that some teams could make a move thinking they’d only be committed to Shields for little over a year. Then again, Shields will turn 35 in December 2016, so he’s probably just likely to stick with his current deal since teams may be hesitant to pay a pitcher more than $43MM guaranteed for his age-35 and age-36 seasons.
Had a team claimed Shields, the Padres could’ve simply let him walk and the claiming team would’ve had to absorb his entire salary. San Diego is now free to explore trades that could see them offer to cover some of Shields’ guarantee in exchange for better prospects, or perhaps (as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggested this morning) Shields could be moved for another high-priced player like Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval.
Shields for Sandoval is a fair trade. Move spangenberg to short, move solarte to 2nd and that adds more left handed bats to the lineup.
Sandoval is garbage with a garbage contract. Shields is solid with a less than garbage contract. How is this a fair trade?
Shields is making 21 million the next 3 years and not opting out.
2016, 2017, 2018 21 million for shields.
Sandoval is making 17 million in 2016 and 2017 and 18 million in 2018.
That saves them 4 million the next 2 years and 3 million in 2018.
21 million for 30-33 games of shields OR 17,17,18 for 110-120 for Sandoval.
You can find pitching that costs 8-12 mill a year for the same production shields is giving you at 21 mill the next 3 years.
I’ll take Shields by a mile. Sandoval is busted. If any Sox fan thinks they’re getting anything of value for him they’re dreaming.
He’s given up switch hitting and he’s batting over .280 vs R and L pitching from the left side. His atrocious numbers hitting R handed bring his numbers down.
“Shields is solid with a LESS THAN garbage contract.”
I just want to clarify that I meant to say his contract is better than Sandoval’s.
He’s also 33. Sandoval is 28.
Nobody is disputing Sandoval having a down year, but he’s making less the next 3 years and has history of success at petco. Still young and in his prime.
Shields
Shields is very close to garbage at a price tag bordering insane for the production. Sandoval is garbage at a price tag that exceeds insanity. If there as a 0-10 scale, with 10 being the highest, to grade out bad contracts… Sandoval would be a 10, and Shields would be an 8.5.
Shields is 33, Sandoval is 28. I’d rather pay a 29, 30, 31 position player hitting .280+ left handed which the Padres need to have more in the lineup 52 million over the next 3 years than 34, 35, 36 year old pitcher 63 million over the next 3 years.
Last year Shields FB averaged 92.5mph, this year its 91.4. I don’t see it getting back up to 92-93 average going forward. he’s down over 1mph on the fastball which is why his numbers are higher this year. 34,35,36 I don’t see it going back up
How would you explain his increased K rate? Velocity isn’t everything you know. Same with age, some players fall off quicker than others.. you can’t go strictly on age.
Jamie Moyer couldn’t break glass, yet, for a seven year stretch from age 34 to 41, Jamie was averaging around 17 wins and 220 innings a season.
I’m not. His slower FB rate is directly tied into his 18.3% HR/FB which is 10% higher than his previous 2 years playing in KC AND playing in Petco 18.3% isn’t something you expect to see from pitchers. Ross has 6.7%, Cashner 12%, Despaigne 14.1%. He’s higher than everyone else and his slower FB is a good reason why.
Also, according to fan graphs his fastball is his least effective pitch. His most effective is his cutter followed by his curve and changeup.
I love how in depth you get to criticize Shields but Sandoval in your mind is good because .280+ left handed lol come on man!
Because he’s making more than Sandoval and is being paid as an “ace”.
The money they save trading for Sandoval is going to be needed to fill other wholes and arb with cashner and Ross who’s getting raises in theirs.
I also said he’s having a down year and the hope is he returns to form being able to play at petco where he’s had solid numbers and in San Francisco.
His K% is up, I’d wager, in part because he gets to pitch against other pitchers now, and in part because his % of pitches in the zone is at an all-time personal low. He’s striking out more impatient hitters, and walking more patient ones.
I’d rather have an in shape pitcher who is consistent and will give you 7 solid innings nearly every start and keep you in games instead of a fat guy whose stats have slipped over the years.
Pablo Sandoval 2015 WAR: -0.5
James Shields 20115: WAR: 1.3
Sandoval has $78 mil left on his contract
Shields has $65 mil left on his contract
not even close to a fair deal, the Sox would have to kick in a 2 WAR player and $13 mil for it to be a fair deal.
Shields is making 63 mill the next 3 years (21 per)
Sandoval is making 52 mil the next 3 years (17 next two then 18)
That saves them 11 mill the next 3 years.
In 2019 they’re both making 18 mill.
Also, he’s hitting over .280 vs R and L pitching as a L hitter and gave up switch hitting.
You can spin it however you want, but team(s) will have to pay Sandoval $13 mil more than team(s) will have to pay Shields over the life time of both contracts. Shields production has also helped the Padres win 1.8 more games than they would have if Sandoval was on the team instead.
He won’t even be able to his his own weight in Petco..
Well asking him to hit 350 is kind of a lot 😉
Shields is delivering what the Padres are paying him for. The Sandoval signing never made sense IMO for the Red Sox. He’s getting star money even when he was nothing more than an average player for SF. Plus…the weight issue and he’s owed 72 million. Shields for Sandoval makes zero sense for SD.
It would have to be a Blockbuster with Jedd and others going back to same with Red Sox sending others.
I do not see how Shields is a bad contract at this point. Sandoval…. a different story. Why would the pads do this?
Here’s the only piece of evidence you need to see that Shields is a bad contract – no team claimed him. Is the guy having a great year? No, but he’s still a considerably better option than the 4th and 5th starters for most contending clubs. Just the mere fact that a team like the Cubs would rather trot out Dan Haren every 5th day than run the risk of paying Shields $21mil per year from 2016-18 is really all you need to know about how execs view that contract.
You don’t understand how waivers work. This was a REVOCABLE waiver. Shields would never be a salary dump, the Padres would simply pull him back. If you are a team that secretly wants Shields bad, it would benefit you to NOT claim him because if you did you would lose all leverage and more than likely SD would pull him back if they can’t negotiate with other teams.
So let me get this straight.
A team would lose leverage on acquiring James Shields if they put themselves in a situation where they were the only team allowed to negotiate a trade for him… Wow. You really believe that, don’t you?
You still don’t get it…. If Shields is claimed, SD wouldn’t trade unless they’re blown away. If he clears waivers, they can negotiate with more teams and take the best offer available.
Do you really believe Shields not being claimed means no GM would want him in their playoff roster? Wow. You really believe that, don’t you?
So you mean to tell me that if you were selling your house, you’d turn down a $300,000 offer if there was only one offer… while settling on $200,000 simply because there were multiple offers? That’s absurd.
And I didn’t say that teams wouldn’t be interested in acquiring Shields. What I said was that they don’t want to pay him $21 million per year. No team does; not even the Padres at this point. By putting in a claim on Shields, a team would run the risk of acquiring the totality of the deal. By not putting in a claim, teams actually have leverage to ensure they wouldn’t take on all the money remaining on this guys deal.
And for all the talk about how SD isn’t looking to dump salary – please tell me where all this money is suddenly coming from. This is a team with a record payroll of $108 million. It hasn’t worked for them. They’re terrible. Their farm system is terrible. And with $75.35 mil on the books already for next year – for NINE players – it’s really difficult to see how they’re going to improve past the point of terrible unless they clear salary.
1) Um. What? Your house idea does not make sense. I think the question you should ask is if you’re selling a house WITHOUT offers in hand (which is what SD’s situation is) would you rather negotiate with one party or multiple parties? Clearly multiple parties.
2) Did you just contradict yourself?
“So let me get this straight.
A team would lose leverage on acquiring James Shields if they put themselves in a situation where they were the only team allowed to negotiate a trade for him… Wow. You really believe that, don’t you?”
“By putting in a claim on Shields, a team would run the risk of acquiring the totality of the deal. By not putting in a claim, teams actually have leverage to ensure they wouldn’t take on all the money remaining on this guys deal.”
3) I never said SD wasn’t looking to cut payroll, they obviously are, but that doesn’t mean they consider Shields a salary dump. There is obvious value there and I stand by my original statement that Shields is immensely more valuable than Sandoval simply because of the likelihood that he will contribute in the future. I would rather have a 21m #3-4 starter than a negative value 3B with no glove, weight issues, and obvious regression of abilities.
1) You do realize that if a team had claimed Shields, then that team would be able to negotiate a trade for Shields, right? The idea that you think SD wouldn’t have a ‘deal in hand’ from a claiming team leads me to believe you don’t understand that. Additionally, if my house was under water, wherein the value of the house was considerably less than what I actuated owed on it, then yea – I would think long and hard about just letting someone take on the mortgage if they offered to do that
If a team wanted Shields at his current price, then they would not lose leverage by putting in a claim – they would only gain leverage by making themselves the only team that could bid on him. If a team wanted Shields at a reduced price – which has been my stance all along – then they would lose leverage on that possibility by putting in a claim because they run the risk of being stuck with Shields contract in its entirety based on the waiver process. It’s not a contradiction; it’s literally just taking two different circumstances into account.
You didn’t start w/ Sandoval. You discussed Sandoval in other threads, but never in this specific sub-thread that has included me.
You continue to ignore the ‘blocking’ aspect of waivers. The Yankees need a pitcher, and it might behoove the Jays to put in a claim just to make sure the Yankees couldn’t. The same situation exists with the Pirates, who need a pitcher, and the Cubs who would likely prefer to the Pirates not acquire a pitcher. Forget about teams ‘wanting’ Shields – what about the teams that simply want to ensure that Shields doesn’t go to a team they’re competing with for a playoff spot? How come they didn’t put in the claim?
The reason he cleared waivers is because a team can now negotiate and expect the Padres to kick in money to pay him for a better return WITHOUT being on the hook cause they claimed him. They don’t HAVE to trade for him and don’t HAVE to take on his salary.
The only team that may be desperate enough to take on his contract without the Padres eating money is the Yankees as the Blue Jays are hot on their heels.
Aw Meatloaf with the thumbs down… good for you. Whatever you gotta do to make yourself feel smart.
Same to you, buddy. Thumbs down = Disagreement does it not? Don’t take it personal.
Nope. Having a meaningful reply means disagreement. Thumbs down is child’s play.
Meaningful reply + Thumbs down is even better though 🙂
This is straight from the article, “Had a team claimed Shields, the Padres could’ve simply let him walk and the claiming team would’ve had to absorb his entire salary.”
If some team had claimed him no they wouldn’t have pulled him back. They would have let the team take on the ENTIRE salary commitment absolving them of having to pay him.
Shedding the salary all together and eating no money is just as valuable if not more valuable to the team going forward.
Did you just read a trade rumor headline and take it as a fact? Ask Wilmer Flores how that worked out for him. If SD were truly looking for a straight salary dump, he would have been fitted for Dodger blue long ago. You seem to have ALL the inside sources though. Tell AJ Preller hi for me.
No ,actually the Blue Jays were in a similar situation with Alex Rios a couple years ago where he was claimed by the White Sox in August who did nothing but take on his salary after claiming him and the Blue Jays getting nothing in return. Here’s a link to the article.
mlbtraderumors.com/2009/08/white-sox-acquire-alex-…
This is straight from the link- “the White Sox have acquired Alex Rios from the Blue Jays. It’s a straight waiver claim, so the Blue Jays will receive nothing in return.”
There’s been other high priced bad contract guys that teams just let walk to shed salary.
Trading within the division is always tricky. Furthermore not even the Dodgers would touch the 21 mill per year for the next 3 without the Padres kicking back some. Which is the entire issue. Padres don’t want to eat any money, but teams are asking them too. They’ll eat salary if it means a team also takes Gyorko, but teams don’t want Gyorko at his full price. It’s not like you need a crystal ball to see what the Padres expectations are vs. the rest of the league.
I know how August waiver salary dumps work. The way I see it, Rios = Sandoval NOT Shields. If Shields is dealt, the Padres will get something of value in return. Not big time prospects but something. Sandoval for Shields makes absolutely zero sense. Also I wouldn’t count the Dodgers out of anything.
Cubs wouldn’t want to claim Shields at this point…end up in the hook potentially and then let that destroy their run at David Price.
Exactly. Because at the end of the day, Shields has negative value. He’s 33 years old, in the midst of his worst season since 2010, and is owed $63 million over the next 3 years. Do you really think those numbers are going to improve during his ages 34, 35 and 36 year old seasons?
They won’t. And anybody that thinks the Padres wouldn’t prefer to simply erase that from their books is naive. That’s why no team put in a claim on him. It’s because the Padres would be absolute idiots not to simply give him away to a team that won a waiver claim.
Since 2007. only one pitcher in MLB has pitched more innings than Shields. The guy is like Don Sutton….toss him out there and he’s generally going to be among the leaders in Games started, complete games, innings pitches shutouts and most importantly, wins. He’s not a #1 but he’s a great 2 or 3. The fact the Padres pay him a lot is due to a shortage of pitching last year on the FA market and the Pads were desperate to impress. He’s been everything the Padres could have expected. He’s 8-4 on a bad team. His ERA is right there with his career average at 3.74 and he’s averaging over six innings per start, like his career average and he’s 6th in the NL in innings pitched. You can’t ask a FA to produce better than his career stats in the past…only produce what he has produced and JS is dead on!
I always talked about him not being a #1 in KC and people never liked to hear that.
No one put the claim in likely because they didn’t want the contract dumped on them without being able to negotiate money or prospects to counteract the contract. Shields is worth SOMETHING
1) You do realize that if a team had claimed Shields, then that team would be able to negotiate a trade for Shields, right? The idea that you think SD wouldn’t have a ‘deal in hand’ from a claiming team leads me to believe you don’t understand that. Additionally, if my house was under water, wherein the value of the house was considerably less than what I actuated owed on it, then yea – I would think long and hard about just letting someone take on the mortgage if they offered to do that
If a team wanted Shields at his current price, then they would not lose leverage by putting in a claim – they would only gain leverage by making themselves the only team that could bid on him. If a team wanted Shields at a reduced price – which has been my stance all along – then they would lose leverage on that possibility by putting in a claim because they run the risk of being stuck with Shields contract in its entirety based on the waiver process. It’s not a contradiction; it’s literally just taking two different circumstances into account.
You didn’t start w/ Sandoval. You discussed Sandoval in other threads, but never in this specific sub-thread that has included me.
You continue to ignore the ‘blocking’ aspect of waivers. The Yankees need a pitcher, and it might behoove the Jays to put in a claim just to make sure the Yankees couldn’t. The same situation exists with the Pirates, who need a pitcher, and the Cubs who would likely prefer to the Pirates not acquire a pitcher. Forget about teams ‘wanting’ Shields – what about the teams that simply want to ensure that Shields doesn’t go to a team they’re competing with for a playoff spot? How come they didn’t put in the claim?
Shields for Panda, Brian Johnson, and Devin Marreo would be interesting.
I think panda could bounce back in a lower pressure environment.
Phils are 16-5 since all-star break on thei backs of some young players breaking out-Franco,Herrera,Hernandez etc etc..Headng in the right direction. They have a $5 B Comcast deal startting next season, shrinking payroll(No Hamels-Papelbon-Utley). I would have called SD’s bluff with Shields.
Shields would have been an excellent claim for them. Much prefer Shields $63 M than Prices $220 M. Huge gap in talent between Shields and next years 2nd tier FA’s like Leake Samardzija, Fister etc etc..
Huh? Are you saying the Phils should pay about $2 mil less a year for an “old” pitcher that has been prone to flyballs/home runs at Petco this year? What do you think will happen if you put Shields in Citizen Bank? A lot more of those flyballs will turn into HR’s….. Phils are in the midst of rebuilding. No reason to pick up Shields contract and pay all that money for someone that really won’t contribute all that much to “winning”.
How long do you want the Phillies rebuild to last? If you dont begin to add decent pitching you rebuild till infinity. Shields is arguably the best pitcher at an affordable contract.Big market,lots of revenue streams, exciting young team.
The Phillies are 16-5 playing behind Jerome Williams,Hahang,Buchanan,Morgan. Start adding legitimate #2’s like Shields and you transition from rebuilding to contending.
I won’t deny a rebuild and adding timely pitching… But Shields isn’t the guy. Phillies need Shields at about the point Tampa traded him to KC…If you’re gonna negotiate with a free agent…do it under your own terms in the winter…not take on someone else’s back loaded mistake.
Don’t the Phils have enough bad contracts?
Dont the Phillies have too many bad contracts already? No they dont.
In todays game James Shields isnt that far off from a fair market cntract.
Shields s a legit #2 and $20 M is what #2’s cost nowadays. He’s lost no velocity, K/BB rate is usually near 4/1.
I would much rather have james Shields at 3/$65 M than David Price at 7/$220 M or Jordan Zimmermann at 6/$150 M.
He’s a #2 now… But he has some seasons left, and he gets more expensive. Don’t see him opting out
Shields for Howard works.
Padres would take on the $35 mil that is due to hoard for 2016 and to buy out his option for 2017.
Phillies take on the remaining $65 mil in Shields contract and get a 2 WAR pitcher for the next 3 years.
Here is the funny thing about Shields… He is pitching almost identically to his career numbers, so Padres pretty much got exactly what they expected from him.
His ERA this year is 3.75 (career 3.72) his Whip this year is 1.28 (career 1.22) And even though his HR rate is higher, so is his K rate.
So really doesn’t make sense if it’s considered a bad contract now, but not so bad when they Padres signed them. He has lived up to expectations so far. Only thing Padres did was push money back.
Shields is falling into this quagmire that’s been the Padres season. Shields just doesn’t make sense now given the team around him
All the clubs knew the Padres would just clear themselves of the salary rather than eat money for a B prospect.Thats why I feel no one claimed him.Its much more valuable for the Padres to dump the full contract on a team rather than have to eat money for a low level prospect whom probably never see the show.If the Padres want a decent prospect back they better be ready to kick in 6-8 mil or so a year.Not gonna happen unless they can get the Dodgers or Yankees to bite.