In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe gives his suggestions for fixing the Red Sox. One idea is for Boston to take advantage of the Mets, who have offensive needs but might not have the willingness to address them in free agency. The Mets may be forced to use their pitching depth in order to improve their offense, and one baseball person wondered aloud to Cafardo whether Matt Harvey could be had for Xander Bogaerts. Cafardo also sees Pablo Sandoval for James Shields as a logical deal as the Red Sox and Padres would be swapping bad contracts. Here’s more from today’s column..
- “While it’s not assured yet,” the Braves would like to keep A.J. Pierzynski beyond 2015, Cafardo writes. The catcher is making $2MM this season and he could be in line for a raise given his play in 2015. Through 77 games, the catcher owns a .302/.340/.446 slash line with 7 homers. Pierzynski, who turns 39 in December, has an OPS of .765, his best showing since 2012.
- A five-year, $100MM deal for Yoenis Cespedes isn’t out of the question, according to one agent who spoke with Cafardo. The outfielder figures to be one of the few quality bats available on the open market this winter and the agent cites Hanley Ramirez’s deal as reason to believe that Cespedes could hit $100MM. Ramirez signed a four-year pact worth $88MM that can balloon to $110MM if his fifth-year option is exercised. The Mets might not be willing to go that high for the slugger. Tim Dierkes ranked Cespedes No. 6 on his most recent update to the MLBTR Free Agent Power Rankings.
- Joe Torre, currently MLB’s vice president of baseball operations, told Cafardo that he wouldn’t rule out working for a team again, though it would have to be the right situation. Cafardo wonders if Torre could be a candidate to join the Red Sox’s front office with Larry Lucchino stepping down.
- Speaking of Lucchino, those who know the outgoing president and CEO well say that he wants another challenge. The Blue Jays and Nationals (Lucchino has D.C. roots) are two teams to watch, Cafardo says.
Bogaerts for Harvey is laughable. A 22-year old shortstop who’s already a .300+ hitter with the body type for power and a plus defender for a starting pitcher who’s had Tommy John and all signs point to him signing with the Yankees as soon as he gets the chance. Harvey is an amazing pitcher, sure, but his 3.47 FIP indicates he hasn’t pitched as well as his 2.76 ERA. His track record isn’t extensive and he’s never pitched over 26 starts yet. Pitching is far easier to find than a young dynamic shortstop. When was the last time the Red Sox had a cornerstone at SS? Nomar? No, I’ll keep Bogey.
I’m not going to disagree with you in comparing a 22 year old SS to a 26 year old SP. But you can’t say “Harvey’s track record isn’t extensive” when comparing him to Bogaerts who before this year had underperformed in his limited major league playing time. Harvey’s track record isn’t extensive compared to someone like Kershaw or Pujols, but compared to Bogaerts it certainly is sufficient.
And naturally you would only compare this year when Bogaerts is playing extremely well and only reference Harvey’s 3.47 FIP this year. How about in his career seeing it’s 2.75 compared to his 2.53 ERA? Yeah a lot of that was pre-TJS, but it’s not like he’s pitching poorly this year.
With all of that said, I would usually take the 22 year old SS over the 26 year old SP but the way you compared them is just awful. Outside of saying “Harvey is an amazing pitcher” you hand-picked stats that would make Harvey look mediocre/poor and stats that would make Bogaerts look like the next Jeter or A-Rod.
I don’t have an extensive list, but it seems like when its one-for-one, or if the headline pieces are hitter-for-pitcher, the trades haven’t worked out for the team acquiring the pitcher over the last 10-20 years or so. Rizzo-Cashner & Hamilton-Volquez come to mind. So based off that alone I’d rather have Bogaerts instead of Harvey, because generally speaking, pitchers are just not as consistent as hitters, they drop-off can be very sudden for a young pitcher, but rarely a young hitter, hitters usually drop off into their 30s more often.
I’m not saying that your not correct with your examples, but Cashner and Volquez were hardly scrubs for their teams. That being said, I would almost always choose the hitter in that type of trade simply because hitters on average have more longevity and a longer prime than pitchers.
Yeah that’s what I was getting at. Harvey’s fantastic but Bogaerts is younger and plays a position that is very shallow in terms of talent right now.
The concept is simple and correct – hitters are. a safer bet than pitchers. You used some awful examples to make that case, though.
And Bogaerts isn’t as good relative to other shortstops as Harvey is relative to other pitchers. It’s relatively easier to find a shortstop who can hit for a decent offense when he’s running unsustainable BABIPs than it is to find a guy with the stuff to start an All-Star Game, which means literally a top-3 pitcher in his respective league.
Cashner and Volquez aren’t exactly Harvey, whereas Hamilton and and Rizzo are quite a bit better than Bogaerts. When’s the last time Cashner and Volquez started an All-Star Game ahead of Clayton Kerfax?
Pineda for Montero, theres where the pitcher worked out
It’s actually still too early to tell due to Piñeda’s injury problems and Montero’s renaissance as a player.
Yea there is no way Boston does that trade. Nothing agaisnt Harvey at all, but even though good pitching beats good hitting, I’d rather have a star shortstop then pitcher.
That’s way off-base. The Sox gave up a better shortstop in Iglesias for a much worse pitcher in Peavy. It’s like you have paid zero attention to what the Sox have actually done. Moreover, Bogaerts’ offensive profile is poor – he doesn’t walk and only has a high average because he’s gotten lucky.
Hilarious. One is an All-Star game starter with Cy Young votes and a 2.5 career ERA. The other is riding an unsustainable .360 BABIP to barely above average offense with a terrible no-walks offensive profile.
Harvey for Bogaerts only makes sense if Betts is also included. Or Devers, Margot, and Johnson.
Only 5 shortstops have more home runs than the 23 year old Wilmer Flores does this year, and defensively he’s ranked better than Aybar, Tulo, Segura & Alexei R. It’s mind boggling how stupid the Mets are acting with him, he’s 23 and learning the game, just let him be the SS – he’s going to be a good one.
Flores is as good of a SS as Duda was as playing the OF.
Tell that to the metrics, homeslice.
Nah, I’d rather see it the old fashioned way: With my own eyes.
Dangerous – don’t let the game leave you behind.
It’s all about balance.
The Mets started winning once they moves Flores to 2B. He’s a much better fit there than he is at SS, where he just doesn’t fit well.
The Mets are sabermetrically inclined. That’s what led them to go with the FloreSS experiment in the first place. It didn’t work and they’ve moved on, except where they need to shoehorn his bat into the lineup. He’s a 2B/3B who can occasionally cover SS in a pinch.
The Met’s front office are all idiots…..and cheap as dirt. They’ll never go anywhere as long as the Wilpons are around. Sell the team to someone who “knows how to run a Baseball Franchise”. Harvey for Bogaerts? Forget it. Plenty of other SS’s available if they won’t give Flores a chance.
Yeah, how terrible they must be in first place over the consensus off-season “best team in baseball” despite missing their best player (Wright) and their #3 pitcher (Wheeler) for pretty much the entire season. You ahould really think before you type.
SSS of flawed subjective metrics. Anyone who watched Flores at SS knows he isn’t one. Not to say he can’t be an offensive utility player who spells a regular SS. And truthfully as a bench role player the Flores lovefest can continue, like a backup QB, always will be a fan favorite
If you had watched two Mets games, you would know that Flo is a much better 2B than SS.
Cespedes is fairly easily going to get 5/$100M because he does the highlight reel stuff and mashes home runs. He’s terrible at OBP but no one cares because of the flashy stuff. Heywards probably going to push $200M because he’s 26 and can get a 10 year deal that isn’t buying out late 30s/early 40s seasons like Cano & A-Rod’s deals do. Upton might get 10 years/200+ too even though he’s 2 years older than Heyward.
I don’t care about OBP. I care about making plays on defense and on the bases, as well as getting big hits. I believe in clutch, winning, impact players that can turn a game. Cespedes has proven to be that
You can make the argument that not making an out is literally the only job of a hitter, so caring about OBP should be a big deal to everyone – you say you care about winning, well getting on base literally means you win. The Giants had 7 regulars with OBP’s more than .330 last year – that’s how you win, you don’t make outs.
Cespedes does do a lot of other things, but he’s not a premier top 10 player due to that reason, the lack of OBP alone, but he does a lot of things better than Hanley Ramirez, who got 4/88. 5/100 seems very reasonable for the age 30-34/35 seasons of Cespedes.
That’s ironic because Heyward is actually one of the best baserunners and fielders in all of baseball.
Honestly, if a team can get him on 10/200, thats a bargain. His peak years are still ahead of him, and 20 mill a year will be underpaid in at least half those years. Buying age 26-35 seasons of him for 200 mill is a wise move – he’s certainly a better bet than Cano was.
You say it’s a bargain now, but after he signs the deal many people will complain about how he is overpaid. Joey Votto was (and still is) one of the best in the game with OBP and signed a similar extension and now people are saying he has an untradeable contract because he had an injury last year. There is no such thing as a “bargain” 10/200 contract.
I think there can be, Heyward might be the first. Age is everything, Votto and Cano are both signed til they’re 40. Heyward can get a 10 year deal and only be 35 in the final year. There hasn’t been too many situations like his in recent times, maybe A-Rod in his Texas deal? That’s about it.
What happens if Heyward turns into Andruw Jones?
Andruw Jones was a ticking time bomb physically.
Joey Votto also plays the easiest defensive position on the field.
Why do Boston writers keep trying to shove every available executive to the Red Sox? Every indication so far is that they already have their man to replace Lucchino in Sam Kennedy.
Because it’s Boston. Like giving a kid money to buy whatever he wants in a toy store. Every time he/she walks down an aisle, he/she will put down what they just selected, and pick-up whatever they see that catches their eye. Never ends.
You want Harvey and all you offer is Bogaerts, I hang up on you real quick. Harvey, when healthy, is a stud number 1 pitcher, one of the best in baseball, Bogaerts isn’t even close to that IMO. Boston took the cheap on getting Hamels so now are thinking they can do it again apparently
Bogaerts it the best shortstop in the AL this year and second in fWAR overall among shortstops with 4 years of team control remaining. Harvey is a solid top of the rotation guy with three years of team control remaining. He’s never thrown 200 innings in a season. Neither player has enough experience so you’d know for sure what you’re getting in the future. The trade seems fair.
How dare you say anyone but Carlos Correa is the best shortstop in the AL this year.
Correa hasn’t played the entire season. When he does that he likely will be.
Nope, he is right now. Even in half a season and with a replacement-level guy playing the other games, that’s better than Bogaerts and its not close. You really need to see Correa in person, he’s on Harper/Trout level and he plays a harder position than them. Bogaerts is awesome, but not on that level yet.
Bogaerts isn’t bad. Correa might actually be the best player in baseball.
He’s already better by a healthy margin. Only the biggest Sox homer would even consider arguing otherwise.
Bogaerts isn’t close to as good as Carlos Correa. He’s just getting lucky because balls are dropping in for him, inflating his average. The trade isn’t close to fair. It’s a post-hype prospect putting up mirage-like numbers for a consensus top pitcher in baseball. Bogaerts and Betts is much more realistic.
That would be a poor trade for Boston. Pitchers are much higher risk and theres already added risk with Harvey. Also he has one less year of control then Bogey.
Bad, good who cares? It’s fair. I didn’t say I think they should make the trade.
Trading a shortstop with mirage-like numbers for a consensus top pitcher would be highway robbery for the Sox. A more realistic trade would be something like Bogaerts, Devers, Margot, and Johnson for Harvey and Tejada.
I understand that Shields may be overpaid, but he still provides value. Comparing his contract to Panda’s is laughable.
Red Sox would have to chip in a lot of money for that deal.
Boston would have to take on all of Shields money and 75% of Panda’s to get Preller to even think about it. For some reason both Shields K/9 and BB/9 rates have skyrocketed, its like SD asked him to become a different pitcher than what he was before. He should probably look to ditch this approach and pitch wisely and be a pitcher, not a thrower. Probably due to Derek Norris’s terrible game calling – he was dreadful in Oakland at it.
I think thats a bit much… Shields contract is backloaded so if he pitches badly they are screwed. Pablo is having a bad year but I think he is a good bet to be strong next year.
That NL->AL league switch brutalizes a lot of guys.
You do realize that Shields pitched in the AL for almost his entire career, right? Almost all of that was in the AL East, too.
So the way to fix the Red Sox is to make a bunch of one-sided trades and sign the biggest name free agents? I never would have thought of that, Cafardo is wasting his time writing columns. Why hasn’t somebody brought him in to run a club yet?
Ok no. We already trie to revolving door at short and it lead to some weird results… No trading Bogaerts, he’s part of a core you want to establish.
As for Sandoval for Shields… wouldn’t the purpose of trading Shields, from the Padres perspective, be to get salary relief? Boston would have to kick in $10M just to even things out.
I disagree with the first poster, Harvey for Xander is unfair for the mets. Xander has an unsustainable .363 BABIP and is only 4% above league average with a 104 OPS+. There will be some major regression once his BABIP comes back to earth next year and he will be below average. Harvey is coming off TJ but is a proven ace in the past. I would bet Xander has serious regression next year and Harvey looks closer to himself.
Pablo for Shields???…….What have you been smoking? Change your meds….you’re having a bad reaction!!! Only a serious Red Sox Fan would even suggest that they could trade Pablo for anything more than a ham sandwich right now! (and I am from Mass………and not a SD fan at all)
There are some pictures of Ted Williams from his playing days and coaching ones on the Chain of Lakes in Winter Haven, but i never found out which Lake he put his boat in on. Yaz I did. He had a ST home for years on the corner or 22nd st and W Lake Howard dr, (no longer of course) and kept his fishing boat under his carport. Though he had private land across the road, on the lake itself, he always put it in at the public boat access, where there was a fishing dock as well and I’d sometimes be early in the morning fishing away to pass time. He would usually be alone, sometimes had a buddy with him.
We lived in between Lake Deer and Lake Howard then, about half mile walk between, was great for fishing when no baseball was going on and sportspeople, like player’s that loved it when imagine it was in the 30’s in New England still and in the 70’s here.
Perhaps I am in the minority, however, I don’t view James Shields contract as that “bad”. His WHIP is higher than usually, but his SO/9 is a very healthy 9.8. He’s still one of the best seasoned front of the rotation arms out there IMO.
Sandoval has turned into a sub-replacement level player that is still owed $80 million over the next four years. Probably one of the worst contracts in baseball. So where do Boston sports writers keep coming up with the notion that they could get a productive No. 2 pitcher in return for him?
Yea, the Padres offered him a big contract like eight months ago. That doesn’t mean they still want him when he’s putting up a .680 OPS.