Below is a transcript of this week’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams (Trade Rumors app users can check out the transcript here).
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The Cardinals aren’t going with a 3 man rotation and pitching guys on 3 days rest in the playoffs. Lackey, Wacha, Garcia, and Lynn will all be starting. Really strange question and answer.
Yeah that’s a mental blunder on my part. Byproduct of answering questions too quickly. I took it as “Who gets the final rotation spot” without stopping to think that there are only two guys penciled in ahead of the presented options. Clearly, a mistake on my end.
There’s no way Shields opts out after next year. No one will want to pay a 35 year-old starter with an ERA in the high 3’s $44m. And Samardzija really should take the QO. That way, he can be grossly overpaid for one year, try to rebuild value and then take advantage of a much weaker free-agent pitching class in 2016.
MLBTR, if you are going to allow this chat to dominate the front page of this site then I’m out of here. This chat is ridiculous as the responses indicate. I’m sick and tired of coming back to this site to see my account is inactive. The chat host is also boring as is the questions.
“Dominate” is a pretty aggressive word selection considering it’s one hour per week and runs at the same time each week. If you don’t enjoy it, steer clear of MLBTR on Tuesdays from 2pm-3pm CT. We receive largely positive feedback on hosting chats and have received positive feedback on embedding it to the site recently as well. Sorry you’re not a fan, but we’ve been hosting Tuesday chats for something like seven years now.
If you anticipate the ERA to remain in the high 3.00 range, then no, he probably doesn’t opt out. Based on the strikeout hike and the fact that his ERA is largely due to a fluky spike in homer-to-flyball ratio, I’d expect better numbers in 2016 than in 2015.
If Shields has a more typical season — by his standards — he can come close to, if not exceed the remaining money on his deal, at which point he can assess whether he wants to remain with a Padres organization that is (at least as it stands right now) rife with question marks or if he wants to pursue a contract with a team more built to contend.
Whether or not he opts out is irrelevant to the question posed, though. Sandoval’s been one of the worst players in baseball this year and is owed more money over the remaining life of his deal. Shields, at least, has contributed positive value and is likelier to do so in the future. There’s little sense in making that trade from San Diego’s vantage point.
No way in H E L L Shields get $44m as a free agent next year. If he opts out he will be leaving a LOT of money on the table, even if he does have a better season next year as opposed to this year. I think he will do better next year because of his flukishly high homer-to-flyball ratio this year, but strikeouts are overrated. It doesn’t matter how you get outs as long as you do get them. ERA and WHIP are far more important stats.
On the topic of Pablo Sandoval’s trade value, Melvin Upton and Sandoval offer interesting comps.
Upton and Sandoval were identical ages — almost to the day — when each signed his first free agent contract: Upton for five years and $75.5 million in November 2012 and Sandoval for five years and $95 million in November 2014.
At the time of the signings, Upton had been valued at 22.3 fWAR in 966 games — including 3.8, 3.7 and 3.3 the three previous seasons — while Sandoval had been valued at 20.1 fWAR in 869 games — including 2.6, 2.0 and 3.1 the three previous seasons.
Upton fizzled with a negative 0.6 fWAR in the first year of his contract with the Braves while Sandoval has bombed with an fWAR of a negative 1.9 in the first year of his contract with the Red Sox. Upton has followed up with fWAR of 0.3 in 2014 and 1.3 in 2015.
Upton has two years and $31.9 million left on his contract while Sandoval has four years and $75 million remaining on his.
One could argue that Sandoval has less trade value than Upton.