Option decisions are among the first important moves made by teams in the offseason. While many are fairly easy to call, there are plenty of borderline examples.
The White Sox face a tough decision regarding veteran shortstop Alexei Ramirez. Chicago can choose either to employ Ramirez for $10MM next year, or instead pay him a $1MM buyout and allow him to hit the free agent market. In other words, it will cost the team $9MM if it wants another year of Ramirez.
Looking just at last year, this is not a difficult decision for GM Rick Hahn. Ramirez slashed just .249/.285/.357, put up his worst-ever running mark (a rather stunning -5.0 BsR), and was viewed as a sub-par defender by both UZR (-6.4) and DRS (-6). Things ticked up in the second half, but the overall output wasn’t pretty.
Then again, Ramirez has for the most part been a model of consistency over his eight years with the club. He has made 4,999 plate appearances and played an average of 153 games per season over 2008-2015, providing a stabilizing roster presence. Ramirez hasn’t generally been spectacular, but has been an average or better overall regular in most of those seasons.
The 2014 season, in fact, was one of Ramirez’s best. While his defensive metrics dropped, he still rated well there in terms of UZR and continued to generate good ratings on the basepaths. And the light-hitting infielder posted his second-best career batting line, an unexciting but useful .273/.305/.408.
Even if you value the track record, Ramirez is 34 years old and was never an outstanding player. Reasonable-but-optimistic expectations would be for roughly league-average performance in 2016. There was a time where that kind of outlook would make this an easy buyout situation. But ten million bucks doesn’t buy what it used to in the game of baseball.
Ramirez wouldn’t top any teams’ priority lists if he hits free agency, but he’d still get paid. That’s due in large part to the lack of supply on the shortstop market. After Ian Desmond and Asdrubal Cabrera, clubs looking for a plug-and-play veteran will be choosing between Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins, who had every bit as rough a season and is even older.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes writes in his preview of the White Sox’ offseason, the $9MM that Chicago would need to commit to Ramirez is perhaps “only slightly above” his value in free agency. There are some teams that would love to have a potentially average performer to replace sub-par platoons, while others might want a veteran to help ease the transition of younger, long-term options. To an extent, the White Sox look to fit both situations: the idea of a year with Tyler Saladino isn’t too appealing for a club that hopes to win, but clogging the position wouldn’t maximize the value of top prospect Tim Anderson.
All said, the salary is probably close enough to market that the White Sox should pay it if they want Ramirez back. If nothing else, it may be tough to re-sign him after cutting ties, and the risk is limited on a one-year commitment.
The other options for finding production at shortstop are limited. But there are alternatives, and bringing back the incumbent could represent a slight overpay with a fairly low ceiling.
So, we’ll put it to a vote (app users click here):
I’d say decline it. The position players right now are so bad that I doubt the White Sox will seriously contend in 2016. In 2017, though, the team will still have their core of Abreau, Sale, and Quintana under contract. So, they should save the 9MM by declining Ramirez’s 2015 option, and spend that money with an eye towards 2017 competition.
CWS should should pick up Rameriz’s option. He’s about 1.0 WAR and has been worth 2.0 WAR or more in years prior. I know Rameriz is getting older but who else would CWS put in there?
Every time I see Alexei he was making some silly error, either in the field, or on the base paths. His lack of concentration is just painful at times, and often costs the team far more than his occasional good play. He can go, or if he comes back do it at a very very small amount of cash, but do not pick up his option.
They should decline his option.. Perhaps they can replace him with Stephen Drew.. If they can get Drew for close to the $5 million the Yankees paid him for 2015 then they would at least be getting solid defense albeit with a dead bat.. That seems like a better option to me than a bad defensive SS with a dead bat at twice the cost..
After a 0.9 WAR season in 2014 by Asdrubal Cabrera, he received 7.5M on a 1 year deal. From 2010-2015, Alexei averaged ~3.2 WAR over those 6 seasons.
Asdrubal averaged 2.6 WAR over the 6 seasons leading up to his FA.
The point of this is that Alexei can probably land 1/10M on the FA market because of his history and similar situations. The ChiSox should pick up his option. Even if they don’t want him, they could try to push him on a team like the Padres or hope he rebounds and flip him at the deadline for a piece of the next ChiSox contender. His upside is worth a 1/10M risk for a team that may or may not be competitive next year.
Your idea looks very good as well.. A sign and trade with another team would be a smart way to get rid of him.. However they choose to do it, doesn’t really matter, as long as he is wearing another team’s uniform next year.. Knowing the luck of the White Sox, though, he will have a career year next year for another team, posting 4-5 fwar.. That seems to always happen to the White Sox and the Padres..
It could happen easily because with him it is a question of being motivated and he was not, nor were many of his team mates. That will likely not change for 16 either, not with Robin still managing this club. I think 3+ years of mediocrity is a good indicator of the type of manager for the south side.
Dismantle that $h*t team. New faces might sell more ticket for the first month of the season. After that ticket giveaway begins
They already made this decision when they chose to not trade him at the deadline last year. He’s staying.
I think he was not traded because they could not get anything for him (at least without eating some of his salary which the Sox typically refuse to do with trading players). I can see the Sox not triggering the option, but I can also see them then resigning him for much less. He just is a hot and cold player and needs someone on his butt all day to get him to play well. I think it is clear that the manager the Sox have now will not do that.
I think that Alexei is one of the problems with this club. Mental errors galore in the field and on the base paths. Just inexcusable for a veteran player who should know better. Sure he makes the occasional great play but I do not think it justifies the sloppy play most of the rest of the time. Plus he seems to lose his bat for half a season. If they do bring him back I would not do it by paying his option, but by letting that expire and resigning him for far less. Could he do well on another team? Sure, if he has a manager that would motivate him to be good, but the South Side is missing that right now, and it will likely not change with Robin back at the helm next season, as that Parent firing should not fool anyone here. Their manager is as a big of an issue as the holes they having the lineup right now..
I completely agree with declining the option. As long as Ventura is manager the White Sox are at best a .500 team. As it always happens the Sox bring in free agents who had good years and the next year with the Sox they suck!!!!