Another active offseason is in store for the White Sox, who find themselves with needs all over the diamond.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Abreu, 1B/DH: $44MM through 2019; may opt into arbitration after 2016
- David Robertson, RP: $36MM through 2018
- Melky Cabrera, LF: $29MM through 2017
- Adam Eaton, CF: $22.65MM through 2019; club options for 2020-21
- Jose Quintana, SP: $22.25MM through 2018; club options for 2019-20
- Chris Sale, SP: $22.15MM through 2017; club options for 2018-19
- John Danks, SP: $14.25MM through 2016
- Adam LaRoche, DH/1B: $13MM through 2016
- Zach Duke, RP: $10.5MM through 2017
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
- Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
- Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
- Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
- Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K
- Non-tender candidates: None
Contract Options
- Alexei Ramirez, SS: $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Free Agents
I have difficulty criticizing Rick Hahn’s active 2014-15 offseason, as I was a fan of his moves and thought the White Sox would contend this year. However, major acquisitions Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Jeff Samardzija bombed. To compound matters, position players Avisail Garcia, Conor Gillaspie, and Alexei Ramirez were brutal as well. It’s almost freakish that so many players performed below expectations in the same year, and the result was an 86-loss season. That came on the heels of 89 losses in 2014 and 99 losses in 2013.
This team seems in too deep to blow it all up, plus they’ve still got a strong, affordable core. Abreu, Sale, Quintana, and Eaton generated about 18 wins above replacement in 2015, and will cost less than $30MM in 2016. That remains a fantastic bargain, so GM Rick Hahn needs to take another shot at complementing his core with the right veterans.
So, what can be done about baseball’s worst collection of position players, by measure of wins above replacement? Starting behind the dish, WAR doesn’t do Tyler Flowers justice, as he’s worked himself into one of the game’s best pitch framers. With so much work to do elsewhere on the diamond, retaining Flowers is a reasonable starting point. Geovany Soto, a minor league signing who worked out well, could be re-signed early in the offseason.
I don’t see much point in trying to sell low on Cabrera. This might be grasping at straws, but he at least showed signs of life in July, and the best bet for 2016 is to hope he can bounce back and supply a two-win season at age 31. Given Cabrera’s consistently poor defense, the team would be improved by having him spend the majority of his time at designated hitter. Abreu’s defense at first base is no longer a liability, and the team could reduce his DH games to 25 or so.
This alignment leaves LaRoche without a starting spot on the 2016 club. Hahn can spend the next few months searching for an interesting bad contract swap or a salary dump partner, and then release him if those efforts come up empty.
Though Avisail Garcia is only 24, it’s time to try someone else in right field. Hahn says he’s still confident in Garcia, but the team can’t afford another replacement level season as they hope for him to develop. Garcia should be shopped to rebuilding clubs for something useful this winter, and sent to Triple-A if no good offers come in. 2015 rookie Trayce Thompson is actually three months older than Garcia, but could land a starting outfield spot on the strength of a strong 135-plate appearance debut. It’s a red flag, however, that Thompson hit .260/.304/.441 at Triple-A. In a perfect world, he’d be penciled in for a fourth outfielder role next year.
The White Sox should be in the market for at least one regular corner outfielder, as well as another player who can help out. The free agent market features four excellent options in Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon. All of them are projected to earn $100MM+ and more than $20MM per season. There are ways to fit such a signing into the team’s payroll, though it would require most of their available resources. There is a tier of outfielders below this group in the $8-15MM salary range, such as Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson, Steve Pearce, and Colby Rasmus. The trade market could include Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig. Ozuna would be particularly interesting for Chicago, as he’s yet to reach arbitration and will be earning less than $600K. He’ll be appealing to many teams, however.
So outfield is wide open and in need of multiple acquisitions. The infield picture isn’t much better for the White Sox. The big question is whether to choose a $10MM club option or a $1MM buyout for longtime shortstop Alexei Ramirez. Ramirez’s improved second half suggests he might have another two-win season left in him, but at age 34 picking up his option would definitely be a gamble. I think the $9MM net price is only slightly above Ramirez’s market value, but the White Sox might not want to tie up that much payroll space in him.
There’s the idea of using 2015 rookie Tyler Saladino as a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, though that’s a poor win-now plan. The free agent market offers Ian Desmond, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jimmy Rollins. Though Desmond himself had an off-year, I still see him pushing for a four or five-year contract, so I don’t see him as a fit for the Sox. A crosstown swap for Starlin Castro makes some sense. Castro, 26 in March, is signed through 2019 but could spend a few months at shortstop until Anderson is ready and then settle in as an above average second baseman. However, the Cubs may still like him for that role. In that case, Javier Baez could be a target.
Third base is another question mark for the White Sox. Saladino, Mike Olt, and Matt Davidson are in-house options. Juan Uribe could be a fun pickup on the free agent market, and David Freese will be out there as well. Trade options include Todd Frazier, Martin Prado, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Plouffe, and Luis Valbuena. One sleeper could be Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang, who might be posted by the Lotte Giants.
This year, second base was handled mainly by Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson. It’s yet another potential area of upgrade, with Daniel Murphy and Howie Kendrick profiling as the top free agents and Brandon Phillips and Neil Walker looking like trade candidates. One free agent we haven’t mentioned yet is Ben Zobrist, who MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pegged as a potential White Sox target given their multitude of needs and the veteran’s versatility. However, the 34-year-old Zobrist could seek the Victor Martinez contract (four years, $68MM), which the White Sox were wise to avoid last winter. Murphy is a younger player who should cost less than Zobrist and can at least handle both second and third base, though he’d likely cost the White Sox their second round draft pick.
Once again, Sale and Quintana are locked in atop Chicago’s rotation, a duo that provided 415 strong innings this year. Danks’ contract makes him likely to hang around as the fifth starter. Rodon, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2014, joined the big league rotation on May 9th and recorded a 3.79 ERA in 23 starts. His control needs improvement, but it was a solid rookie effort. Samardzija isn’t likely to return, but making a qualifying offer is an easy decision. The Sox could replace Samardzija in-house with some combination of Erik Johnson, Frankie Montas, Tyler Danish, and Chris Beck.
Hahn probably won’t address all of his team’s needs through free agency, and it’s possible he’ll deal from the team’s pitching depth to acquire a position player. Assuming Sale remains off-limits, Quintana will be a popular target for other teams. Only a handful of position players would justify surrendering five affordable years of control of Quintana, Puig among them. I think Hahn is more likely to deal from his stash of unproven but mostly MLB-ready arms. It’s possible the team could add a low-level veteran starting pitcher in free agency if they compromise their rotation depth.
Hahn’s retooled bullpen was above average in 2015. There’s reason for further optimism in 2016. Robertson is better than his 3.41 ERA, and the Sox will enjoy a full season from Nate Jones. I imagine they’ll try to re-sign Albers, who came on a minor league deal and had a quality season despite missing three months in the middle with a broken finger.
Earlier this month, Hahn told reporters the team will be retaining Robin Ventura as manager for 2016. Given the way Ventura’s last three seasons have gone, however, he will likely be on a short leash entering the new season. Before then, expect plenty of offseason action for the White Sox, who have a laundry list of needs to address if they are to return to contention in 2016.
The Sale /Quintana 1-2 is about as good as any in the AL. I would be surprised to see either one of them moved. Those players on those contacts should be built around. Asking price for either one would be astronomical
Quintana and Spencer Adams
FOR
Castro, Almora, Vogelbach, zagunis, and pierce Johnson
Cubs get a solid pitcher in quintana and a potential stud in spencer who has a ways to go before making his MLB debut seeing as he’s only like 19 years old (at LEAST 2 years away…. more likely 3-4). Sox get the young position prospects they DESPERATELY need. They get a better SS in Castro over having to keep worse Alexei Ramirez…. regardless what Sox fans say. Castro’s down year this year is not too far off a typical Ramirez year. They also get a HR masher in Vogelbach who has superb plate discipline to play 1B/DH with Abreu. They get a solid hitting catching prospect in Zagunis. They get a gold glove in waiting in Almora who scouts say could hit about .280 or better and develop into a 20 HR hitter…… especially playing in US Cellular. And I’ll throw in pierce johnson as a toss in. Projects to be a 3-4 starter if he pans out. Cough up 1 ML pitcher and a pitching prospect for 4 players who could address almost all the Sox weaknesses on offense within 2 years. It at least gives you positional prospect hope. Looked at the top position prospects the Sox have listed on their website……. it’s pretty ugly. This hypothetical trade is more than fair imo.
Talk about a stars and scrubs roster … I dunno what they do, but dumping Danks and LaRoche would sure help. I wonder if the two of them could be shipped to Colorado for Jose Reyes. Rockies could use LaRoche and he may recover hitting at Coors. They’d probably just dump Danks. Money’s about equal, although Reyes has one more year.
To move either Adam LaRoche or John Danks would likely require a trade for another bad contract as you suggested, but to take on Reyes’ $22M for each of the next 2 seasons along with another $4M buyout for 2018 would be prohibitive. Such a deal might also block White Sox #1 prospect, shortstop Tim Anderson, who may be ready for prime time sometime this summer or in 2017.
The Colorado Rockies have a $9M mutual option for 2016 with 34 year old first baseman Justin Morneau, who even with a history of injury would be a better gamble on their part than to take on the remaining $13M owed Adam LaRoche, who turns 36 next month.
The Rockies also need John Danks and his $14.25M pitching in Coors Field like we all need a pimple on our pricks.
With Troy Tulowitzki gone, Colorado would be better served keeping Jose Reyes than accepting that deal with the White Sox. They would undoubtedly find a better trade for Jose Reyes elsewhere if they chose that route instead.
I don’t think Samardzija should get a qualifying offer. He’s not worth $15.8m and no one is going to forfeit their first rounder to sign him.
The Yankees are going to be all over Samardzija.. He had one bad year.. He is still a very good pitcher with very low innings on his arm for his age.. He will easily get a contract around 6/$90 perhaps even breaking $100m if the Yankees get into a bidding war with themselves as they have been known to do in the past.. Regardless, he will 100% positively reject a QO and some team is going to give him a big payday.. He may not be an ace but he is on par with James Shields with less years and mileage..
More like one good year. He has been a full time starter for 4 years and outside of 2014 he has been a below average starter. I can’t see anyone forfeiting their first rounder in order to pay $90m for a guy with a 4.96 ERA.
Samardzija is nowhere near James Shields. Shields has posted an ERA under 4.00 in 7 of the last 9 seasons including this season, which most people see as a “bad year” for him.
While I doubt Shark gets six years total as a guy who will be 31 in January, he’s just as absolutely certain of getting and rejecting a QO as Ian Kennedy is. The White Sox have absolutely no risk in extending the offer.
While I do believe that Kennedy and Samardzija will both probably receive and reject QO’s, if I were either of them I would take the QO, be overpaid for one year, bet on myself staying healthy (they both have next to immaculate injury records), try to rebuild value and then take advantage of next offseason’s much weaker free agent pitching class.
Walking away from at least $40M of additional guaranteed money is much easier for those of us who don’t actually have anyone offering it to us!
No one is going to offer Samardzija and his 4.96 ERA $56m. Especially not when they would have to forfeit their first rounder to do it.
Bet ya a beer on that one!
Nobody knows exactly what the 2016 FA class for starting pitchers will be at this point in time. The 2015 class still has some questions marks (like Zack Greinke).
A new Collective Bargaining Agreement in 2016 may also play a role in any future market beyond this off-season.
Rest assured, Jeff Samardzija will receive a Q.O. from the White Sox following the conclusion of the World Series, he will reject it as every other player has since its inception during the last CBA and he will sign a multi-year contract with some MLB team for at least the next 5 seasons.
Despite his poor 2015 season, Jeff Samardzija will most certainly receive a qualifying offer from the White Sox and it will not prohibit some MLB team from offering him a free agent contract worth at least 5yrs/$75M.
I picked this team to win the AL pennant before the year. Funny how quickly things can fall apart.
I still like this team though. Sale/Quintana are excellent. Abreu is a proven quality hitter now after his second year. Eaton is one of the best players in the AL. Just a shame that Shark, Cabrera, LaRoche, etc. didn’t work out.
Hasn’t worked out thus far, at least in the case of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche. Impending free agent Jeff Samardzija likely won’t accept the anticipated $15.8M qualifying offer from the White Sox, but you never know?
At least the team might recoup a draft choice in 2017 for ‘Shark’ (#1 sandwich pick) that they lost in the upcoming 2016 amateur draft (#2, #3) when they signed compensatory free agents David Robertson and Melky Cabrera last off-season.
they need a right handed arm to split up quintana and sale in the rotation, I see them going after a second tier starter like mike leake.
Mike Leake, who will turn 28 later this month will still likely command at least a 4-5yr/$40-50M contract as a middle tier free agent starting pitcher this off-season. Even with an imbalanced starting rotation, I can’t see the White Sox interest in signing him, barring a trade from among their current contingent of left-handed SP’s.
The White Sox might be interested in adding a short term veteran option this winter to bridge the gap between southpaw’s Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, as they did last off-season with the Jeff Samardzija trade.
Any long term acquisition of a right-handed starting pitcher is unlikely with four of the teams top seven prospects being RH starting pitchers. Two of the four, Frankie Montas and Carson Fulmer might be ready to assume a rotation spot sometime this upcoming season while the other two, Spencer Adams and Tyler Danish could conceivably make their MLB debuts in 2017.
As their team currently stands, the White Sox likely opening day rotation will be consist of lefty’s Sale, Quintana, Carlos Rodon, and John Danks, along with right handed pitcher Erik Johnson who was arguably the best starting pitcher in the International League this past season for their AAA Charlotte affiliate. Danks has one more year remaining on the ill-fated 5yr/$65M contract extension given to him prior to the 2012 season. His rotation spot will be available no later than 2017 and hopefully sooner…in the unlikely event the team can find a trade partner for him or they choose the DFA option later in 2016.
As I said in another post, I would like to see the White Sox pick up Stephen Drew.. Uribe and Drew could be low cost band-aids for them next year.. When Anderson is ready, Drew could slide right over to 2nd base.. I am not sure why Drew isn’t mentioned more as being a free agent SS.. Sure besides home runs his bat has disappeared but his defense is still very solid and he has to have as much or more upside than Rollins or Ramirez..
This will be Drew’s second consecutive replacement level season. Over the last 2 seasons he’s had wRC’s of 45 and 76. He will also 33 this year.
I dont think Drew is more than a backup/utiltity player. I think the WS can do better.
In my opinion, the White Sox can do better at shortstop in-house than what Stephen Drew can offer. Alexei Ramirez at $10M for next season would be a better gamble, at least for a half season worth of production, than what Drew would likely produce. If top prospect Tim Anderson is deemed ready for prime time by mid-season, then the White Sox would still have the option of trading Ramirez by the non-waiver trade deadline and recoup some value for him before he becomes an unrestricted free agent following the 2016 season.
If the White Sox elect to buyout Ramirez’ option year for $1M, I would still prefer they give Tyler Saladino or Carlos Sanchez a shot to keep the SS position warm for Anderson rather than take a flyer on Drew.
The Whitesox are an interesting team. They have a really great core thats making well below market value (Abreu, Eaton, Sale, Quintana, Rodon) but pretty much everyone else on that team is a replacement level player. They have needs at 3B, 2B, C, OF, and possibly SS. They could also use a good mid-backend starter
Given all their holes, they should really consider signing Zobrist and/or trading for Holt if he’s made available.
The WS have quality but they dont have quantity and depth. Personally, I think they should look into dealing Quintana for a quantity of players/top prospects that can contributue. A few 2-3 win players may be more benifical to them than one 4-5 win pitcher.
I think the Red Sox and White Sox would match up well in a deal involving Quintana. I’m not sure if Holt would be on the table, but would a deal of Swihart, Marrero, Miley, and a lottery ticket make sense for both parties? Perhaps a prospect instead of Miley? The Red Sox would get a great pitcher, while the White Sox would get their catcher of the future, a defensive shortstop to man the position until their other guys come up through, an innings eater, and some guy in A-ball. I’m not sure if that is enough on the Red Sox’ side, but it should be a really good starting point.
You’re talking about acquiring a guy with on the order of $100M in surplus value in his contract and you think Brock Holt is off the table? I’m not sure ANYONE in the system would be off the table. You’d probably start with a package similar to what the Phillies got for Hamels if you want to spitball. But a broken catcher, two years of a #4-ish starter and a couple of utility infielders isn’t in range.
I mentioned Holt as being off the table as I do think the Red Sox want to keep him. Is he fair to be included in a deal for Quintana? Absolutely. I just think his super-utility profile brings a lot of value to the Red Sox and they’d like to keep him. Also, I think you are confusing Swihart with Vazquez. Prior to this year, Swihart was the top catching prospect in baseball. After being rushed to the Majors, he held his own and proved his talent. Swihart was a better prospect than any of the ones involved in the Hamels deal, and he is ready now. As I said, the rest of the deal may be light, but I think it would be a good start between both parties and would certainly get the two engaged in trade talks. To think it is a laughable offer I think is very much untrue.
I forgot to add Margot to this proposition too. So the whole deal would be: Swihart, Margot, Miley, Marrero, and a lottery ticket for Quintana. I had this proposition done up on another website, and for some reason, I left out Margot. Anyways, I think that would be a pretty good offer.
Yeah… a slight omission! 🙂 Yes, I think that makes it a good starting point for a conversation.
Personally, I think that may be a slight overpay for Quintana. Swihart produced 1.5fWAR in a half season last year (3 WAR over a full season) and that included a dreadful first couple of months where he had to focus on handling the pitching staff instead of hitting.
If you value Swihart as a 3 WAR player, and Miley/Holt as 2 WAR players, thats about as valuable as Quintana whose a 5 WAR player.
Maybe something like Swihart, one of Miley/Holt, along with a lower level prospect could do.
The white sox priority is this: sign Jason Hayward, or upton. Those are the only players I feel comfortable forfeiting a 2nd round draft pick, especially for Jason. And I do agree I don’t think Hahn will go crazy in this free agency.. But if they end up re-signing soto, Albers, a bullpen arm, and another starting pitcher (mike leake) I will be satisfied. Hahn focus should be trading players that have no use. After these presumptions acquisitions I’ve stated, Hahn should trade avi Garcia, Micah, Tyler flowers and Tyler Danish, for john lucroy.? Also trade for Danny Valencia from the Oakland a’s. And hopefully we will find someone who could take danks, and laroche atrocious contracts, if not cut them.
Potential 2016-2017 lineup
CF: Eaton
RF: Hayward
1B:Abreu
DH: Caberra
LF: Thompson
C: Lucroy
3B: Valencia
2B: Sanchez
SS: Anderson
Bench:
Tyler saladino-INF
Mike olt-3b/1b
Soto-C
J.b. Shuck-OF
Projected SP:
Sale
Quintana
Rodon
Mike leake (acquisition)
Erik Johnson
Bullpen:
Nate jones
Montas
Albers
Putnam
Duke
Jennings
Fulmer (?)
Robertson
We cannot fix everything in one year! We gotta build through the draft, and draft better!!
While I would love for that to happen. Anderson is not ready to be in the majors, mostly due to his defense but he also strikes out a ton. Sox are not going to drop 8 years on heyward, they’ve never made deal of more than 4 years. Let alone the money that he’ll be looking to make.
Leake is probably going back to SF they loved him there have the money to pay for a multi year deal. Hoping laroche gets cuz but Jerry being the cheapo that he is. Probably wouldn’t sign off on that. I would be in favor of sending laroche and a prospect to Colorado for jose Reyes and plug him in at SS until Anderson is ready.
I highly doubt he’s looking for a eight year contract, if some team out there will give it to him then forget about it. I was looking maybe 6 years at the most. Hayward is not an offense of threat that everyone projected to become. But he is only 26. The player who’s playing for an eight year contract is cespedes, but he’s already 31-32. For the fourth or the fifth starter should be leake I know it’s hard to get, but someone other than shark. Unless he comes cheap. Maybe Kennedy, and fister will be a good fit,
Cespedes is the guy who is more likely to get the 6 year deal than Heyward because like you said, Cespedes is 31 and Heyward is 26. Players in their 30s rarely get contracts that are more than 7 years, unless they are a superstar (Pujols, Cano). I’d say Cespedes is going to get something like 6/150MM after his monster year. Heyward is likely going to get a longer contract because of his youth, meaning that the decline phase of the contract is likely to be much smaller. If he wants, I’m sure Heyward could get a 8 to 10 year deal.
I just don’t see him getting a ten year contract. He’s not offensive threat, his glove is magnificent though. Six or seven at the most. But if he was having a year like cespedes, than that’s understandable, but he is in my opinion projected at .275-.285 avg, with 20-25 homers at best.
But otherwise Justin upton will be a great option as well
Brandon Phillips could certainly be an interesting name. Reds will practically give him away and he’s still a pretty solid player even if his contract is slightly unfavorable. 3.5 bWAR season last year.
Robin should have been on a ‘short leash’ this past season, especially when they had that horrendous start and then had to go tell him to be more hands on with the club. I think that we can look at this team and see the same type of team from the last two seasons, a LOT of underachieving and lack of accountability which has to fall on the manager as well. The problem is with Robin back (and the lone ‘scapegoat’ being Parent) I doubt the Sox will be much better next season. This team has shown a pattern over the past 3 seasons with Robin at the helm as being a underachieving, unmotivated team with a major lack of accountability and ‘fire’ (and I seriously doubt that was all Parent’s fault). I also think that pitch ‘framing’ was a stat created for mediocre hitting catchers to keep their jobs. What good is getting a strike here or there for your pitcher if you leave men on base or the bases loaded with no one, or 1, out multiple times in a game (like Flowers and Soto did all season)? They need a goog catcher BAD. I would also ship Avisail Garcia back to the minors to find a real swing (or just to wake him up). Thompson replaces Cabrera in the OF, he would replace ‘LaDunn’ as DH and he (Dunn 2.0) would be traded if not released. I think someone would be zany enough to take Danks with only one year left on his contract. Unfortunately I have a feeling that Quintana will need to be traded for a 3rd base and catcher prospect type package if they want anyone good.
The White Sox ‘dream’ scenario for their outfield would be to sign free agent Jason Heyward who would provide the club with a much needed left-handed hitting power bat, more speed in their lineup and a Gold Glove defensive player in right fielder.
Another ‘fantasy’ outcome might be to sign FA left-fielder Yoenis Cespedes and trade for ‘troubled’ right fielder Yasiel Puig. This would require the White Sox to either trade and/or DH their current contingent of Melky Cabrera, Avisail Garcia and Adam LaRoche. With Jose Abreu, Cespedes, Puig, a re-signed Alexei Ramirez at SS and Cuban American Carlos Rodon in their rotation for 2016 the White Sox still wouldn’t have the most popular team in the city of Chicago…but they would own Havana! (lol)
2B/3B Daniel Murphy would not be a trade option for the White Sox, as the article incorrectly suggests. The impending free agent might be an off-season target of the team however, most likely at 3B were the team lacks any realistic in-house options for 2016.