Arbitration Projection Model

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 11 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

Please note that service time is not yet official, nor is the Super Two cutoff known.  Plus, a good number of these players will be removed from the 40-man roster before arbitration can be filed.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Angels (5)

• Junior Guerra – $1.3MM
• Phil Gosselin – $1.5MM
• Max Stassi – $2.7MM
• Mike Mayers – $2.2MM
• Franklin Barreto – $700K

Astros (6)

• Rafael Montero – $3.1MM
• Aledmys Diaz – $4.0MM
• Phil Maton – $1.4MM
• Ryne Stanek – $2.1MM
• Josh James – $700K
• Framber Valdez – $3.2MM

Athletics (11)

• Sean Manaea – $10.2MM
• Chris Bassitt – $8.8MM
• Chad Pinder – $2.8MM
• Matt Chapman – $9.5MM
• Matt Olson – $12.0MM
• Tony Kemp – $2.2MM
• Frankie Montas – $5.2MM
• Lou Trivino – $2.9MM
• Pete Kozma – $600K
• Deolis Guerra – $900K
• Ramon Laureano – $2.8MM

Blue Jays (12)

• Ross Stripling – $4.4MM
• Jose Berrios – $10.9MM
• Jacob Barnes – $1.2MM
• Teoscar Hernandez – $10.0MM
• Adam Cimber – $1.5MM
• Trevor Richards – $1.1MM
• Ryan Borucki – $800K
• Danny Jansen – $1.5MM
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – $7.9MM
• Tim Mayza – $1.2MM
• Trent Thornton – $900K
• Cavan Biggio – $1.7MM

Braves (15)

• Adam Duvall – $9.1MM
• Dansby Swanson – $10.1MM
• Luke Jackson – $3.8MM
• Grant Dayton – $1.2MM
• Orlando Arcia – $2.1MM
• Guillermo Heredia – $1.6MM
• Richard Rodriguez – $3.1MM
• Johan Camargo – $1.4MM
• A.J. Minter – $2.1MM
• Max Fried – $7.1MM
• Mike Soroka – $2.8MM
• Sean Newcomb – $900K
• Edgar Santana – $1.0MM
• Tyler Matzek – $1.5MM
• Austin Riley – $4.3MM

Brewers (14)

• Jace Peterson – $1.3MM
• Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM
• Brent Suter – $2.3MM
• Luke Maile – $1.0MM
• Josh Hader – $10.0MM
• Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM
• Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM
• Willy Adames – $4.0MM
• Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM
• Eric Lauer – $2.7MM
• Jandel Gustave – $800K
• Adrian Houser – $2.3MM
• Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM
• Luis Urias – $2.4MM

Cardinals (8)

• Alex Reyes – $3.3MM
• Harrison Bader – $3.7MM
• Justin Miller – $900K
• Jack Flaherty – $5.1MM
• Jordan Hicks – $1.0MM
• Giovanny Gallegos – $2.8MM
• Dakota Hudson – $1.7MM
• Tyler O’Neill – $3.5MM

Cubs (6)

• Rex Brothers – $1.5MM
• Adam Morgan – $1.3MM
• Willson Contreras – $8.7MM
• Jonathan Holder – $800K
• Joe Biagini – $800K
• Ian Happ – $6.5MM

Diamondbacks (6)

• Luke Weaver – $2.7MM
• Noe Ramirez – $1.8MM
• Caleb Smith – $2.1MM
• Carson Kelly – $3.0MM
• Christian Walker – $2.7MM
• J.B. Wendelken – $900K

Dodgers (5)

• Trea Turner – $19.8MM
• Scott Alexander – $1.3MM
• Cody Bellinger – $16.1MM
• Julio Urias – $8.8MM
• Caleb Ferguson – $700K

Giants (8)

• Dominic Leone – $1.5MM
• Curt Casali – $2.0MM
• Alex Dickerson – $3.0MM
• Darin Ruf – $2.6MM
• Jarlin Garcia – $1.8MM
• John Brebbia – $1.0MM
• Austin Slater – $2.0MM
• Mike Yastrzemski – $3.1MM

Indians (9)

• Austin Hedges – $3.8MM
• Nick Wittgren – $2.8MM
• Amed Rosario – $5.0MM
• Franmil Reyes – $4.4MM
• Shane Bieber – $4.8MM
• Bradley Zimmer – $1.5MM
• Cal Quantrill – $2.8MM
• Josh Naylor – $1.2MM
• Harold Ramirez – $1.6MM

Mariners (9)

• Mitch Haniger – $8.5MM
• Drew Steckenrider – $2.1MM
• Tom Murphy – $1.7MM
• J.P. Crawford – $5.0MM
• Diego Castillo – $2.6MM
• Paul Sewald – $1.8MM
• Casey Sadler – $1.3MM
• Dylan Moore – $1.6MM
• Luis Torrens – $1.6MM

Marlins (13)

• Jesus Aguilar – $7.4MM
• Richard Bleier – $2.5MM
• Jorge Alfaro – $2.7MM
• Garrett Cooper – $3.0MM
• Dylan Floro – $2.4MM
• Brian Anderson – $4.5MM
• Elieser Hernandez – $1.4MM
• Sandy Alcantara – $4.5MM
• Pablo Lopez – $2.5MM
• Lewis Brinson – $1.3MM
• Jon Berti – $1.2MM
• Magneuris Sierra – $700K
• Jeff Brigham – $600K

Mets (16)

• Edwin Diaz – $10.4MM
• Jose Peraza – $1.0MM
• Seth Lugo – $3.7MM
• Miguel Castro – $2.6MM
• Brandon Nimmo – $6.0MM
• Robert Gsellman – $1.6MM
• Trevor Williams – $3.8MM
• Jose Martinez – $1.0MM
• Dominic Smith – $4.0MM
• J.D. Davis – $2.7MM
• Tomas Nido – $900K
• Jeff McNeil – $2.8MM
• Joey Lucchesi – $1.6MM
• Drew Smith – $900K
• Pete Alonso – $7.3MM
• Luis Guillorme – $700K

Nationals (10)

• Josh Bell – $10.0MM
• Joe Ross – $3.0MM
• Juan Soto – $16.2MM
• Erick Fedde – $1.9MM
• Wander Suero – $900K
• Victor Robles – $1.7MM
• Ryne Harper – $800K
• Austin Voth – $1.0MM
• Tanner Rainey – $800K
• Andrew Stevenson – $900K

Orioles (8)

• Trey Mancini – $7.9MM
• Pedro Severino – $3.1MM
• Pat Valaika – $1.3MM
• Anthony Santander – $3.7MM
• Jorge Lopez – $1.5MM
• Paul Fry – $1.1MM
• Tanner Scott – $1.0MM
• John Means – $3.1MM

Padres (13)

• Adam Frazier – $7.2MM
• Matt Strahm – $2.1MM
• Joe Musgrove – $8.9MM
• Dinelson Lamet – $4.6MM
• Emilio Pagan – $2.3MM
• Dan Altavilla – $1.0MM
• Victor Caratini – $2.1MM
• Jose Castillo – $700K
• Tim Hill – $1.4MM
• Trey Wingenter – $600K
• Austin Adams – $1.0MM
• Chris Paddack – $2.1MM
• Miguel Diaz – $800K

Phillies (9)

• Odubel Herrera  – $11.6MM
• Travis Jankowski – $900K
• Zach Eflin – $6.0MM
• Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM
• Jose Alvarado – $1.9MM
• Rhys Hoskins – $7.6MM
• Ronald Torreyes – $1.6MM
• Seranthony Dominguez – $800K
• Roman Quinn – $700K

Pirates (11)

• Chasen Shreve – $2.3MM
• Chad Kuhl – $3.0MM
• Ben Gamel – $2.9MM
• Wilmer Difo – $1.1MM
• Colin Moran – $4.0MM
• Chris Stratton – $2.2MM
• Steven Brault – $2.2MM
• Jacob Stallings – $2.6MM
• Kevin Newman – $2.2MM
• Michael Perez – $900K
• Bryan Reynolds – $4.5MM

Rangers (7)

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – $4.9MM
• Matt Bush – $900K
• Ronald Guzman – $1.0MM
• Jharel Cotton – $1.2MM
• Willie Calhoun – $1.6MM
• Brett Martin – $1.1MM
• Taylor Hearn – $1.1MM

Rays (19)

• Oliver Drake – $1.0MM
• Matt Wisler – $1.8MM
• Manuel Margot – $5.0MM
• Tyler Glasnow – $5.8MM
• Adam Conley – $900K
• Joey Wendle – $4.0MM
• Ji-Man Choi – $3.5MM
• Ryan Yarbrough – $4.4MM
• Yonny Chirinos – $1.2MM
• Yandy Diaz – $2.7MM
• Jordan Luplow – $1.5MM
• Austin Meadows – $4.3MM
• Cody Reed – $700K
• Andrew Kittredge – $1.6MM
• Jalen Beeks – $600K
• Francisco Mejia – $1.5MM
• Jeffrey Springs – $1.0MM
• Brett Phillips – $1.2MM
• Nick Anderson – $900K

Red Sox (9)

• Kevin Plawecki – $2.0MM
• Hunter Renfroe – $7.6MM
• Ryan Brasier – $1.4MM
• Rafael Devers – $11.1MM
• Nick Pivetta – $3.2MM
• Franchy Cordero – $1.0MM
• Alex Verdugo – $3.2MM
• Christian Arroyo – $1.1MM
• Josh Taylor – $1.1MM

Reds (10)

• Tyler Naquin – $3.6MM
• Luis Cessa – $1.6MM
• Luis Castillo – $7.6MM
• Amir Garrett – $2.2MM
• Jesse Winker – $6.8MM
• Tyler Mahle – $5.6MM
• Kyle Farmer – $2.2MM
• Jeff Hoffman – $1.1MM
• Lucas Sims – $1.2MM
• Nick Senzel – $1.1MM

Rockies (12)

• Daniel Bard – $4.8MM
• Elias Diaz – $2.6MM
• Carlos Estevez – $3.2MM
• Kyle Freeland – $7.0MM
• Robert Stephenson – $1.1MM
• Raimel Tapia – $3.9MM
• Ryan McMahon – $5.5MM
• Rio Ruiz – $1.1MM
• Garrett Hampson – $1.8MM
• Tyler Kinley – $1.0MM
• Yency Almonte – $700K
• Peter Lambert – $600K

Royals (9)

• Hanser Alberto – $2.1MM
• Andrew Benintendi – $9.3MM
• Adalberto Mondesi – $3.2MM
• Jakob Junis – $1.8MM
• Brad Keller – $5.2MM
• Cam Gallagher – $900K
• Scott Barlow – $2.4MM
• Ryan O’Hearn – $1.4MM
• Nicky Lopez – $2.0MM

Tigers (13)

• Michael Fulmer – $5.1MM
• Matthew Boyd – $7.3MM
• Drew Hutchison – $900K
• Ian Krol – $900K
• Joe Jimenez – $1.8MM
• Jeimer Candelario – $5.9MM
• Niko Goodrum – $2.9MM
• Jose Cisnero – $1.9MM
• Victor Reyes – $1.3MM
• Grayson Greiner – $800K
• Spencer Turnbull – $1.8MM
• Dustin Garneau – $1.6MM
• Harold Castro – $1.5MM

Twins (12)

• Byron Buxton – $7.3MM
• Taylor Rogers – $6.7MM
• Tyler Duffey – $3.7MM
• John Gant – $3.7MM
• Mitch Garver – $3.1MM
• Caleb Thielbar – $1.2MM
• Rob Refsnyder – $800K
• Jake Cave – $1.1MM
• Danny Coulombe – $800K
• Willians Astudillo – $1.2MM
• Juan Minaya – $1.1MM
• Luis Arraez – $2.0MM

White Sox (7)

• Evan Marshall – $2.3MM
• Brian Goodwin – $1.7MM
• Lucas Giolito – $7.9MM
• Adam Engel – $2.2MM
• Reynaldo Lopez – $2.8MM
• Jace Fry – $1.0MM
• Jimmy Cordero – $1.2MM

Yankees (19)

• Jameson Taillon – $4.7MM
• Joey Gallo – $10.2MM
• Gary Sanchez – $7.9MM
• Aaron Judge – $17.1MM
• Chad Green – $4.1MM
• Wandy Peralta – $1.7MM
• Jordan Montgomery – $4.8MM
• Gio Urshela – $6.2MM
• Luke Voit – $5.4MM
• Gleyber Torres – $5.9MM
• Clint Frazier – $2.4MM
• Miguel Andujar – $1.7MM
• Tyler Wade – $700K
• Clay Holmes – $1.0MM
• Jonathan Loaisiga – $1.7MM
• Domingo German – $2.1MM
• Lucas Luetge – $1.1MM
• Tim Locastro – $700K
• Kyle Higashioka – $1.2MM

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for ten years.  This winter, due to the pandemic and 60-game MLB season, there’s more uncertainty than ever with arbitration, as I explained here.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players – a method I hope to illustrate with examples later this winter.  To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort.  So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation.  The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that even in a normal year, our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level.  A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything.  Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it.  Many cases may end up getting resolved in a hearing room.  To reflect that uncertainty, we’re providing three projections for each player:

• Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
• Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals.  One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
• Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

Keep in mind that with a potential record number of non-tenders, many of these players will be released by December 2nd.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Angels (11)

• Justin Anderson – $700K / $700K / $700K
• Matt Andriese – $1.8MM / $2.8MM / $1.9MM
• Dylan Bundy – $5.9MM / $9.8MM / $6.8MM
• Andrew Heaney – $5.0MM / $8.0MM / $5.7MM
• Mike Mayers – $800K / $1.5MM / $800K
• Keynan Middleton – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $900K
• Shohei Ohtani – $2.1MM / $3.0MM / $2.1MM (using hitter model)
• Felix Pena – $800K / $1.3MM / $800K
• Noe Ramirez – $1.1MM / $1.2MM /  $1.0MM
• Hansel Robles – $3.85MM / $4.1MM / $3.9MM
• Max Stassi – $1.8MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM

Astros (3)

• Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
• Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
• Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM

Athletics (10)

• Chris Bassitt – $3.1MM / $5.6MM / $5.5MM
• Mark Canha – $5.4MM / $8.2MM / $6.1MM
• Matt Chapman – $2.9MM / $4.3MM / $2.9MM
• Tony Kemp – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
• Sean Manaea – $4.2MM / $6.4MM / $4.7MM
• Frankie Montas – $1.6MM / $2.4MM / $1.6MM
• Matt Olson – $3.5MM / $6.4MM / $3.5MM
• Chad Pinder – $2.2MM / $2.4MM / $2.2MM
• Burch Smith – $600K / $800K / $600K
• Lou Trivino – $900K / $1.1MM / $900K

Blue Jays (3)

• A.J. Cole – $800K / $1.1MM / $800K
• Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM / $5.3MM / $2.7MM
• Travis Shaw – $4.2MM / $5.4MM / $4.5MM
• Ross Stripling – $2.5MM / $3.7MM / $2.7MM

Braves (8)

• Johan Camargo – $1.9MM / $2.3MM / $1.9MM
• Grant Dayton – $900K / $1.0MM / $800K
• Adam Duvall – $4.4MM /  $7.1MM / $4.7MM
• Max Fried – $2.4MM / $4.6MM / $2.4MM
• Luke Jackson – $1.9MM / $2.1MM / $1.9MM
• A.J. Minter – $1.1MM / $1.6MM / $1.1MM
• Mike Soroka – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
• Dansby Swanson – $4.3MM / $8.3MM / $5.0MM

Brewers (10)

• Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
• Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM
• Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
• Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM
• Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM
• Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM
• Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM
• Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
• Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM
• Jace Peterson – $800K / $900K / $700K

Cardinals (6)

• Harrison Bader – $1.2MM / $1.7MM / $1.2MM
• John Brebbia – $800K / $800K / $800K
• Jack Flaherty – $2.2MM / $3.0MM / $2.2MM
• John Gant – $1.5MM / $1.9MM / $1.5MM
• Jordan Hicks – $900K / $900K / $900K
• Alex Reyes – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM

Cubs (12)

• Albert Almora Jr. – $1.575MM / $1.575MM / $1.575MM
• Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
• Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
• Victor Caratini – $1.2MM / $1.6MM / $1.2MM
• Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM
• Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
• Colin Rea – $1.0MM / $1.6MM /  $1.0MM
• Kyle Ryan – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.2MM
• Kyle Schwarber – $7.01MM / $9.3MM /  $7.9MM
• Ryan Tepera – $1.2MM / $1.5MM /  $1.1MM
• Dan Winkler – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $900K
• Jose Martinez – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.1MM

Diamondbacks (5)

• Caleb Smith – $1.3MM / $1.6MM / $1.3MM
• Junior Guerra – $2.7MM / $3.3MM /  $2.8MM
• Carson Kelly – $1.3MM / $1.8MM /  $1.3MM
• Luke Weaver – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM

Dodgers (7)

• Scott Alexander – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
• Austin Barnes – $1.4MM / $1.7MM /  $1.3MM
• Cody Bellinger – $11.5MM / $15.9MM / $13.1MM
• Walker Buehler – $2.3MM /  $3.1MM / $2.3MM
• Dylan Floro – $900K / $1.2MM /  $900K
• Corey Seager – $9.3MM / $15.0MM / $10.4MM
• Julio Urias – $1.6MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM

Giants (9)

• Daniel Robertson – $1.2MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
• Tyler Anderson – $2.4MM /  $4.3MM / $3.7MM
• Alex Dickerson – $2.0MM / $3.3MM / $1.8MM
• Jarlin Garcia – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
• Trevor Gott – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
• Reyes Moronta – $800K / $800K / $800K
• Wandy Peralta – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
• Darin Ruf – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
• Austin Slater – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
• Donovan Solano – $2.2MM / $3.8MM / $2.3MM

Indians (7)

• Austin Hedges – $3.0MM / $3.1MM / $3.0MM
• Adam Cimber – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
• Delino DeShields – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $2.1MM
• Francisco Lindor – $17.5MM / $21.5MM / $19.0MM
• Phil Maton – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
• Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
• Nick Wittgren – $1.4MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM

Mariners (3)

• J.P. Crawford – $1.3MM / $2.4MM / $1.3MM
• Mitch Haniger – $3.0MM / $3.0MM / $3.0MM
• Tom Murphy – $1.6MM / $1.6MM / $1.6MM

Marlins (9)

• Jesus Aguilar – $3.6MM /  $6.1MM / $3.9MM
• Jorge Alfaro – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
• Brian Anderson – $2.2MM / $4.3MM / $2.2MM
• Garrett Cooper – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
• Yimi Garcia – $1.4MM / $1.8MM / $1.4MM
• Ryne Stanek – $800K / $800K / $800K
• Jose Urena – $3.8MM / $4.2MM / $3.9MM
• Richard Bleier – $1.1MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM

Mets (13)

• Guillermo Heredia – $1.4MM / $1.5MM /$1.3MM
• Michael Conforto – $9.0MM /$13.6MM / $10.1MM
• J.D. Davis – $1.7MM / $2.9MM / $1.7MM
• Edwin Diaz – $5.1MM / $6.5MM / $5.6MM
• Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM / $1.4MM / $1.3MM
• Seth Lugo – $2.2MM / $3.1MM / $2.4MM
• Steven Matz – $5.0MM / $5.3MM / $5.1MM
• Brandon Nimmo – $3.0MM / $5.2MM / $3.3MM
• Amed Rosario – $1.8MM / $2.6MM / $1.8MM
• Dominic Smith – $1.9MM / $3.6MM / $1.9MM
• Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM / $9.7MM / $9.7MM
• Miguel Castro – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
• Chasen Shreve – $900K / $1.1MM / $800K

Nationals (3)

• Joe Ross – $1.5MM / $1.5MM / $1.5MM
• Juan Soto – $4.5MM / $8.5MM / $4.5MM
• Trea Turner – $9.4MM / $16.6MM / $10.8MM

Orioles (6)

• Hanser Alberto – $2.3MM / $4.1MM / $2.6MM
• Shawn Armstrong – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
• Trey Mancini – $4.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.8MM
• Renato Nunez – $2.1MM / $3.9MM / $2.1MM
• Anthony Santander – $1.7MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
• Pedro Severino – $1.4MM / $2.3MM / $1.4MM
• Pat Valaika – $1.1MM / $1.9MM / $1.1MM

Padres (8)

• Dan Altavilla – $700K / $900K / $700K
• Zach Davies – $6.3MM / $10.6MM /$7.2MM
• Greg Garcia – $1.6MM / $1.7MM / $1.6MM
• Dinelson Lamet – $2.3MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
• Emilio Pagan – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
• Luis Perdomo – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
• Tommy Pham – $7.9MM / $8.1MM / $8.0MM
• Matt Strahm – $1.6MM / $1.9MM / $1.6MM

Phillies (6)

• Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
• Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
• Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
• Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
• Hector Neris – $4.8MM / $6.4MM / $5.3MM
• Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM

Pirates (15)

• Josh Bell – $5.1MM / $7.2MM / $5.7MM
• Steven Brault – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
• Kyle Crick – $800K / $900K / $800K
• Michael Feliz – $1.1MM / $1.1MM / $1.1MM
• Adam Frazier – $3.3MM / $5.2MM / $3.7MM
• Erik Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
• Chad Kuhl – $1.3MM / $2.2MM / $1.4MM
• Colin Moran – $1.9MM / $3.3MM / $1.9MM
• Joe Musgrove – $3.2MM / $4.4MM / $3.4MM
• Jose Osuna – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
• Richard Rodriguez – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
• Jacob Stallings – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
• Chris Stratton – $800K /  $1.2MM / $800K
• Jameson Taillon – $2.3MM / $2.3MM / $2.3MM
• Trevor Williams – $3.2MM / $4.6MM / $3.5MM

Rangers (4)

• Joey Gallo – $4.7MM / $6.8MM / $5.3MM
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – $1.2MM / $2.3MM / $1.2MM
• Rafael Montero – $1.4MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
• Danny Santana – $3.6MM / $3.6MM / $3.6MM

Rays (8)

• Jose Alvarado – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $1.0MM
• Yonny Chirinos – $1.6MM / $1.8 / $1.6MM
• Ji-Man Choi – $1.6MM / $2.1MM / $1.6MM
• Tyler Glasnow – $2.8MM / $5.1MM / $3.2MM
• Manuel Margot – $2.8MM / $3.6MM / $2.9MM
• Hunter Renfroe – $3.6MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
• Joey Wendle – $1.6MM / $2.7 / $1.6
• Ryan Yarbrough – $2.2MM / $3.6MM / $2.2MM

Red Sox (7)

• Matt Barnes – $3.7MM / $5.7MM / $4.1MM
• Ryan Brasier – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
• Austin Brice – $700K / $900K / $700K
• Rafael Devers – $3.4MM / $6.3MM / $3.4MM
• Kevin Plawecki – $1.6MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
• Eduardo Rodriguez – $8.3MM / $8.3MM / $8.3MM
• Ryan Weber – $900K / $1.5MM / $900K

Reds (9)

• Brian Goodwin – $2.7MM / $3.6MM / $2.7MM
• Curt Casali – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
• Luis Castillo – $3.0MM / $5.8MM / $3.0MM
• Amir Garrett – $900K / $1.4MM / $900K
• Michael Lorenzen – $3.8MM / $4.4MM / $4.0MM
• Tyler Mahle – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
• Robert Stephenson – $600K / $600K / $600K
• Jesse Winker – $2.0MM / $3.4MM / $2.0MM
• Archie Bradley – $4.3MM / $5.7MM / $4.7MM

Rockies (13)

• Daniel Bard – $1.2MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
• David Dahl – $2.5MM / $2.7MM / $2.6MM
• Elias Diaz – $700K / $1MM / $850K
• Jairo Diaz – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
• Carlos Estevez – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
• Kyle Freeland – $3.5MM / $5.5MM / $3.9MM
• Chi Chi Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.2MM / $1.2MM
• Jon Gray – $5.6MM / $6.5MM / $5.9MM
• Ryan McMahon – $1.7MM / $2.8MM / $1.7MM
• Antonio Senzatela – $2.2MM / $4.9MM / $2.2MM
• Raimel Tapia – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.5MM
• Tony Wolters – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $2.0MM
• Mychal Givens – $3.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.6MM

Royals (9)

• Franchy Cordero – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
• Hunter Dozier – $1.9MM / $2.9MM / $1.9MM
• Maikel Franco – $4.5MM / $8.0MM / $5.0MM
• Jesse Hahn – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
• Jakob Junis – $1.5MM / $1.7MM / $1.5MM
• Brad Keller – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $2.4MM
• Adalberto Mondesi – $2.1MM / $3.8MM / $2.1MM
• Jorge Soler – $7.4MM / $9.2MM / $8.0MM
• Glenn Sparkman – $600K / $600K / $600K

Tigers (9)

• Matthew Boyd – $5.5MM / $7.8MM / $6.2MM
• Jeimer Candelario – $1.7MM / $3.3MM / $1.7MM
• Jose Cisnero – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
• Buck Farmer – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
• Michael Fulmer – $2.8MM / $3.2MM / $2.9MM
• Niko Goodrum – $1.6MM / $2.5MM / $1.6MM
• Joe Jimenez – $1.0MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
• Jacoby Jones – $2.2MM / $2.8MM / $2.0MM
• Daniel Norris – $3.0MM / $3.4MM / $3.1MM

Twins (7)

• Jose Berrios – $4.8MM / $7.5MM / $5.3MM
• Byron Buxton – $4.4MM / $5.9MM / $4.1MM
• Tyler Duffey – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.7MM
• Mitch Garver – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
• Taylor Rogers – $4.8MM / $6.9MM / $5.3MM
• Eddie Rosario – $8.6MM / $12.9MM / $9.6MM
• Matt Wisler – $1.1MM / $1.8MM / $1.1MM

White Sox (7)

• Adam Engel – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
• Jace Fry – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
• Lucas Giolito – $2.5MM / $5.3MM / $2.5MM
• Reynaldo Lopez – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
• Evan Marshall – $1.3MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
• Nomar Mazara – $5.6MM / $5.9MM / $5.7MM
• Carlos Rodon – $4.5MM / $4.5MM / $4.5MM

Yankees (11)

• Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
• Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
• Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
• Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
• Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
• Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
• Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
• Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
• Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
• Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
• Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the ninth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2020.  Official service time is in parentheses next to each player. The Super Two cutoff has been confirmed as 2.115.  For players’ actual arbitration salaries, check out our tracker here.

Angels (9)

• Tommy La Stella (5.057) – $2.9MM
• Cam Bedrosian (4.153) – $2.8MM
• Andrew Heaney (4.150) – $5.0MM
• Hansel Robles (4.119) – $4.0MM
• Dylan Bundy (4.026) – $5.7MM
• Max Stassi (3.049) – $800K
• Brian Goodwin (3.019) – $2.1MM
• Keynan Middleton (2.150) – $800K
• Noe Ramirez (2.139) – $1.0MM

Astros (8)

• George Springer (5.166) – $21.4MM
• Brad Peacock (5.165) – $4.6MM
• Lance McCullers Jr. (4.140) – $4.1MM
• Carlos Correa (4.119) – $7.4MM
• Roberto Osuna (4.097) – $10.2MM
• Chris Devenski (4.000) – $2.0MM
• Joe Biagini (3.134) – $1.5MM
• Aledmys Diaz (3.100) – $2.4MM

Athletics (8)

• Liam Hendriks (5.164) – $5.5MM
• T.J. McFarland (5.164) – $2.1MM
• Marcus Semien (5.118) – $13.5MM
• Robbie Grossman (5.060) – $3.3MM
• Mark Canha (4.092) – $4.9MM
• Sean Manaea (3.157) – $3.5MM
• Chris Bassitt (3.130) – $2.8MM
• Chad Pinder (3.047) – $1.8MM

Blue Jays (4)

• Matt Shoemaker (5.166) – $3.8MM
• Ken Giles (5.113) – $8.4MM
• Anthony Bass (5.010) – $1.7MM
• Brandon Drury (3.165) – $2.5MM

Braves (7)

• Shane Greene (5.075) – $6.5MM
• Mike Foltynewicz (4.134) – $7.5MM
• Adam Duvall (3.151) – $3.8MM
• Dansby Swanson (3.047) – $3.3MM
• Luke Jackson (3.019) – $1.9MM
• Grant Dayton (3.007) – $800K
• Johan Camargo (2.137) – $1.6MM

Brewers (6)

• Corey Knebel (4.151) – $5.125MM
• Omar Narvaez (3.089) – $2.9MM
• Orlando Arcia (3.047) – $2.7MM
• Ben Gamel (3.029) – $1.6MM
• Brent Suter (2.161) – $900K
• Josh Hader (2.115) – $4.6MM

Cardinals (1)

• John Gant (3.004) – $1.4MM

Cubs (7)

• Kris Bryant (4.171) – $18.5MM
• Javier Baez (4.089) – $9.3MM
• Kyle Schwarber (4.086) – $8.0MM
• Willson Contreras (3.108) – $4.5MM
• Albert Almora (3.073) – $1.8MM
• Jharel Cotton (2.158) – $800K
• Kyle Ryan (2.139) – $1.1MM

Diamondbacks (7)

• David Peralta (5.120) – $8.8MM
• Nick Ahmed (5.054) – $7.0MM
• Jake Lamb (5.053) – $5.0MM
• Andrew Chafin (5.020) -$3.2MM
• Robbie Ray (5.007) – $10.8MM
• Archie Bradley (4.112) – $3.6MM
• Matt Andriese (4.071) – $1.4MM

Dodgers (12)

• Pedro Baez (5.059) – $3.3MM
• Enrique Hernandez (5.054) – $5.5MM
• Joc Pederson (5.028) – $8.5MM
• Chris Taylor (4.037) – $5.0MM
• Corey Seager (4.032) – $7.1MM
• Ross Stripling (3.115) – $2.3MM
• Austin Barnes (3.098) – $1.3MM
• Scott Alexander (3.097) – $1.0MM
• Max Muncy (3.027) – $4.6MM
• Cody Bellinger (2.160) – $11.6MM
• Julio Urias (2.117) – $1.7MM

Giants (3)

• Donovan Solano (4.081) – $1.2MM
• Alex Dickerson (3.120) – $1.2MM
• Wandy Peralta (2.168) – $800K

Indians (5)

• Sandy Leon (5.144) – $2.8MM
• Francisco Lindor (4.113) – $16.7MM
• Nick Wittgren (3.071) – $1.3MM
• Mike Clevinger (3.041) – $4.5MM
• Tyler Naquin (3.033) – $1.8MM

Mariners (3)

• Mallex Smith (3.125) – $2.7MM
• Sam Tuivailala (3.082) – $900K
• Mitch Haniger (3.048) – $3.0MM

Marlins (4)

• Jonathan Villar (5.113)  -$10.4MM
• Jose Urena (4.040) – $4.0MM
• Adam Conley (3.147) – $1.6MM
• Jesus Aguilar (3.082) – $2.5MM

Mets (9)

• Marcus Stroman (5.148) – $11.8MM
• Jake Marisnick (5.132) – $3.0MM
• Noah Syndergaard (4.149) – $9.9MM
• Steven Matz (4.099) – $5.3MM
• Michael Conforto (4.043) – $9.2MM
• Edwin Diaz (3.121) – $7.0MM
• Seth Lugo (3.082) – $1.9MM
• Brandon Nimmo (3.042) – $1.7MM
• Robert Gsellman (3.042) – $1.2MM

Nationals (6)

• Hunter Strickland (4.163) – $1.9MM
• Michael A. Taylor (4.129) – $3.25MM
• Roenis Elias (4.069) – $1.9MM
• Joe Ross (4.018) – $1.4MM
• Trea Turner (3.135) – $7.5MM
• Wilmer Difo (3.016) – $1.2MM

Orioles (5)

• Mychal Givens (4.069) – $3.2MM
• Hanser Alberto (3.085) – $1.9MM
• Miguel Castro (3.079) – $1.2MM
• Richard Bleier (3.074) – $1.1MM
• Trey Mancini (3.015) – $5.7MM

Padres (10)

• Jurickson Profar (5.165) – $5.8MM
• Kirby Yates (5.021) – $6.5MM
• Greg Garcia (4.083) – $1.7MM
• Zach Davies (4.020) – $5.0MM
• Austin Hedges (3.166) – $2.9MM
• Luis Perdomo (3.086) – $1.0MM
• Matt Strahm (3.064) – $1.5MM
• Manuel Margot (3.012) – $2.1MM
• Hunter Renfroe (2.165) – $3.4MM
• Dinelson Lamet (2.130) – $1.7MM

Phillies (7)

• J.T. Realmuto (5.038) – $10.3MM
• Jose Alvarez (5.035) – $3.0MM
• Vince Velasquez (4.086) – $3.9MM
• Hector Neris (4.068) – $4.7MM
• Adam Morgan (4.017) – $1.6MM
• Zach Eflin (3.018) – $3.0MM
• Andrew Knapp (3.000) – $800K

Pirates (9)

• Keone Kela (5.000) – $3.4MM
• Michael Feliz (3.169) – $1.2MM
• Jameson Taillon (3.110) – $2.3MM
• Chad Kuhl (3.079) – $1.4MM
• Adam Frazier (3.075) – $3.2MM
• Joe Musgrove (3.063) – $3.4MM
• Josh Bell (3.053) – $5.9MM
• Trevor Williams (3.027)- $3.0MM
• Erik Gonzalez (3.007) – $800K

Rangers (6)

• Danny Santana (4.140) – $3.9MM
• Delino Deshields (4.109) – $2.4MM
• Nomar Mazara (4.000) – $5.7MM
• Rafael Montero (3.138) – $900K
• Nick Goody (3.105) – $1.1MM
• Joey Gallo (3.103) – $4.0MM

Rays (6)

• Mike Zunino (5.165) – $4.9MM
• Tommy Pham (4.107) – $8.6MM
• Chaz Roe (4.094) – $2.2MM
• Oliver Drake (3.045) – $1.1MM
• Tyler Glasnow (2.158) – $1.9MM
• Daniel Robertson (2.134) – $1.1MM

Red Sox (7)

• Jackie Bradley Jr. (5.150) – $11MM
• Mookie Betts (5.070) – $27.7MM
• Brandon Workman (5.051) – $3.4MM
• Eduardo Rodriguez (4.130) – $9.5MM
• Matt Barnes (4.110) – $3.0MM
• Heath Hembree (4.106) – $1.6MM
• Andrew Benintendi (3.062) – $4.9MM

Reds (6)

• Trevor Bauer (5.158) – $18.6MM
• Anthony DeSclafani (5.062) – $5.2MM
• Michael Lorenzen (4.159) – $4.2MM
• Curt Casali (3.151) – $1.7MM
• Travis Jankowski (3.148) – $1.2MM
• Matt Bowman (3.021) – $900K

Rockies (7)

• Scott Oberg (4.063) – $2.0MM
• Jon Gray (4.062) – $5.6MM
• Trevor Story (4.000) – $11.5MM
• Tony Wolters (3.161) – $2.0MM
• Carlos Estevez (3.022) – $1.2MM
• David Dahl (2.162) – $3.0MM
• Kyle Freeland (2.144) – $2.4MM

Royals (2)

• Jorge Soler (4.143) – $11.2MM
• Mike Montgomery (4.089) – $2.9MM

Tigers (5)

• Daniel Norris (4.073) – $2.9MM
• Michael Fulmer (3.157) – $2.8MM
• Matthew Boyd (3.136) – $6.4MM
• Buck Farmer (3.083) – $1.1MM
• JaCoby Jones (2.125) – $1.4MM

Twins (9)

• Ehire Adrianza (5.131) – $1.9MM
• Trevor May (5.012) – $2.1MM
• Eddie Rosario (4.120) – $8.9MM
• Miguel Sano (4.066) – $5.9MM
• Byron Buxton (3.160) – $2.9MM
• Taylor Rogers (3.145) – $3.9MM
• Tyler Duffey (3.074) – $1.1MM
• Jose Berrios (3.044) – $5.4MM
• Matt Wisler (3.042) – $1.0MM

White Sox (5)

• Alex Colome (5.118) – $10.3MM
• James McCann (5.028) – $4.9MM
• Leury Garcia (5.025) – $4.0MM
• Carlos Rodon (4.168) – $4.5MM
• Evan Marshall (3.090) – $1.3MM

Yankees (9)

• James Paxton (5.151) – $12.9MM
• Tommy Kahnle (4.131) – $3.0MM
• Gary Sanchez (3.086) – $5.6MM
• Aaron Judge (3.051) – $6.4MM
• Chad Green (3.050) – $1.4MM
• Jordan Montgomery (2.153) – $1.2MM
• Luis Cessa (2.131) – $1.1MM
• Gio Urshela (2.127) – $2.2MM
• Jonathan Holder (2.124) – $800K

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the eighth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2019. Official service time is in parentheses next to each player.  The Super Two cutoff has been announced as 2.134.

Angels (8)

• Tyler Skaggs (4.135) – $3.6MM
• Andrew Heaney (3.150) – $2.8MM
• JC Ramirez (3.139) – $1.9MM
• Luis Garcia (4.006) – $1.7MM
• Cam Bedrosian (3.153) – $1.7MM
• Nick Tropeano (3.068) – $1.6MM
• Hansel Robles (3.119) – $1.4MM
• Tommy La Stella (4.057) – $1.2MM

Astros (10)

• Gerrit Cole (5.111) – $13.1MM
• Roberto Osuna (3.097) – $6.5MM
• Collin McHugh (5.085) – $5.4MM
• Carlos Correa (3.119) – $5.1MM
• Lance McCullers (3.140) – $4.6MM
• Will Harris (5.102) – $3.6MM
• Ryan Pressly (5.039) – $3.1MM
• Brad Peacock (4.165) – $2.9MM
• Jake Marisnick (4.132) – $2.4MM
• Chris Devenski (3.000) – $1.4MM

Athletics (9)

• Khris Davis (5.104) – $18.1MM
• Marcus Semien (4.118) – $6.6MM
• Blake Treinen (4.065) – $5.8MM
• Sean Manaea (2.157) – $3.8MM
• Liam Hendriks (4.164) – $2.1MM – signed for $2.15MM
• Mark Canha (3.092) – $2.1MM
• Ryan Buchter (3.010) – $1.3MM
• Josh Phegley (4.087) – $1.2MM – signed for $1.075MM
• Ryan Dull (2.143) – $900K – signed for $860K

Blue Jays (9)

• Marcus Stroman (4.148) – $7.2MM
• Ken Giles (4.113) – $6.6MM
• Kevin Pillar (4.113) – $5.3MM
• Randal Grichuk (4.033) – $4.8MM
• Aaron Sanchez (4.069) – $3.8MM
• Devon Travis (3.163) – $2.4MM
• Ryan Tepera (3.008) – $1.7MM
• Brandon Drury (2.165) – $1.4MM
• Joe Biagini (2.134) – $1.0MM

Braves (8)

• Kevin Gausman (4.151) – $9.2MM
• Mike Foltynewicz (3.163) – $5.5MM
• Arodys Vizcaino (5.168) – $4.8MM
• Adam Duvall (3.096) – $3.1MM
• Dan Winkler (4.000) – $1.6MM
• Jonny Venters (5.159) – $1.5MM – signed for $2.25MM
• Sam Freeman (4.066) – $1.5MM
• Charlie Culberson (3.084) – $1.4MM

Brewers (10)

• Travis Shaw (3.088) – $5.1MM
• Corey Knebel (3.151) – $4.9MM
• Jimmy Nelson (4.107) – $3.7MM
• Hernan Perez (4.079) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.5MM
• Junior Guerra (2.155) – $2.7MM
• Zach Davies (3.020) – $2.4MM
• Domingo Santana (3.024) – $2.0MM
• Manny Piña (3.046) – $1.8MM
• Erik Kratz (4.156) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.2MM
• Tyler Saladino (3.053) – $1.0MM – signed for $887.5K

Cardinals (4)

• Marcell Ozuna (5.124) – $13.4MM
• Michael Wacha (5.062) – $6.6MM
• Dominic Leone (3.123) – $1.3MM
• Chasen Shreve (3.167) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K

Cubs (7)

• Kris Bryant (3.171) – $12.4MM
• Kyle Hendricks (4.081) – $7.6MM
• Javier Baez (3.089) – $7.1MM
• Addison Russell (3.167) – $4.3MM
• Kyle Schwarber (3.086) – $3.1MM
• Mike Montgomery (3.089) – $3.0MM
• Carl Edwards Jr. (2.134) – $1.4MM

Diamondbacks (11)

• David Peralta (4.120) – $7.7MM
• Robbie Ray (4.007) – $6.1MM
• Taijuan Walker (4.142) – $4.825MM
• Jake Lamb (4.053) – $4.7MM
• Steven Souza Jr. (4.072) – $4.0MM
• Nick Ahmed (4.054) – $3.1MM
• Archie Bradley (3.112) – $2.0MM
• Andrew Chafin (4.020) – $1.8MM
• T.J. McFarland (4.164) – $1.4MM
• Matt Andriese (3.071) – $1.1MM
• John Ryan Murphy (3.043) – $1.1MM

Dodgers (10)

• Joc Pederson (4.028) – $4.3MM
• Enrique Hernandez (4.054) – $3.2MM
• Chris Taylor (3.037) – $3.2MM
• Josh Fields (5.083) – $2.8MM
• Tony Cingrani (5.088) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.65MM
• Corey Seager (3.032) – $2.6MM
• Pedro Baez (4.059) – $1.8MM
• Yimi Garcia (3.149) – $900K

Giants (3)

• Sam Dyson (4.142) – $5.4MM – signed for $5MM
• Joe Panik (4.100) – $4.2MM – signed for $3.8MM
• Will Smith (5.155) – $4.1MM

Indians (7)

• Trevor Bauer (4.158) – $11.6MM
• Francisco Lindor (3.113) – $10.2MM
• Danny Salazar (4.162) – $5.0MM – signed for $4.5MM
• Leonys Martin (5.161) – $2.8MM – signed for $3MM
• Neil Ramirez (4.001) – $1.3MM – signed for $1.0MM
• Cody Anderson (3.017) – $900K
• Nick Goody (2.160) – $700K – signed for $675K

Mariners (1)

• Roenis Elias (3.069) – $1.0MM

Marlins (5)

• J.T. Realmuto (4.038) – $6.1MM
• Dan Straily (4.126) – $4.8MM
• Jose Urena (3.040) – $3.6MM
• Miguel Rojas (4.043) – $2.6MM
• Adam Conley (2.147) – $1.3MM

Mets (7)

• Jacob deGrom (4.139) – $12.9MM
• Noah Syndergaard (3.149) – $5.9MM
• Zack Wheeler (5.098) – $5.3MM
• Michael Conforto (3.043) – $4.4MM
• Travis d’Arnaud (5.044) – $3.7MM
• Steven Matz (3.099) – $3.0MM
• Kevin Plawecki (2.167) – $1.3MM

Nationals (7)

• Anthony Rendon (5.130) – $17.6MM
• Tanner Roark (5.055) – $9.8MM
• Trea Turner (2.135) – $5.3MM
• Michael Taylor (4.010) – $3.2MM
• Kyle Barraclough (3.059) – $1.9MM
• Joe Ross (3.067) – $1.5MM
• Sammy Solis (3.061) – $900K – signed for $850K

Orioles (3)

• Jonathan Villar (4.113) – $4.4MM
• Dylan Bundy (3.026) – $3.0MM
• Mychal Givens (3.069) – $2.0MM

Padres (6)

• Kirby Yates (4.021) – $3.0MM
• Austin Hedges (2.166) – $1.8MM
• Travis Jankowski (2.169) – $1.4MM
• Bryan Mitchell (3.049) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K
• Robbie Erlin (4.078) – $1.1MM
• Greg Garcia (3.083) – $900K – signed for $910K

Phillies (9)

• Cesar Hernandez (4.154) – $8.9MM
• Aaron Nola (3.076) – $6.6MM
• Maikel Franco (3.170) – $5.1MM
• Vince Velasquez (3.086) – $2.6MM
• Hector Neris (3.068) – $2.0MM
• Jose Alvarez (4.035) – $1.7MM
• Jerad Eickhoff (3.045) – $1.7MM
• Aaron Altherr (3.028) – $1.6MM
• Adam Morgan (3.017) – $1.1MM

Pirates (3)

• Corey Dickerson (5.101) – $8.4MM
• Keone Kela (4.000) – $3.2MM
• Michael Feliz (3.026) – $900K – signed for $850K

Rangers (4)

• Nomar Mazara (3.000) – $3.7MM
• Jurickson Profar (4.165) – $3.4MM
• Delino DeShields Jr. (3.116) – $1.9MM
• Alex Claudio (3.114) – $1.3MM

Rays (4)

• Mike Zunino (4.165) – $4.2MM
• Tommy Pham (3.107) – $4.0MM
• Matt Duffy (4.059) – $2.6MM
• Chaz Roe (3.094) – $1.4MM

Red Sox (12)

• Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM
• Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
• Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM
• Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
• Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM – signed for $1.75MM
• Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM
• Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
• Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM
• Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM
• Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM
• Blake Swihart (2.164) –  $1.1MM

Reds (5)

• Yasiel Puig (5.102) – $11.3MM
• Scooter Gennett (5.071) – $10.7MM
• Alex Wood (5.123) – $9.0MM
• Jose Peraza (2.141) – $3.6MM
• Anthony Desclafani (4.062) – $2.1MM
• Michael Lorenzen (3.159) – $1.9MM
• Curt Casali (2.151) – $1.3MM

Rockies (8)

• Nolan Arenado (5.155) – $26.1MM
• Trevor Story (3.000) – $6.4MM
• Chad Bettis (4.096) – $3.2MM
• Jon Gray (3.062) – $3.2MM
• Tyler Anderson (3.065) – $2.9MM
• Chris Rusin (4.092) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.6875MM
• Scott Oberg (3.063) – $1.2MM
• Tony Wolters (2.161) – $1.1MM

Royals (3)

• Jesse Hahn (3.067) – $1.7MM – signed for $800K
• Cheslor Cuthbert (3.030) – $1.1MM – signed for $850K
• Brian Flynn (3.086) – $1.0MM – signed for $800K

Tigers (6)

• Nicholas Castellanos (5.029) – $11.3MM
• Shane Greene (4.075) – $4.8MM
• Michael Fulmer (2.157) – $3.0MM
• Matthew Boyd (2.136) – $3.0MM
• Daniel Norris (3.073)  -$1.4MM
• Blaine Hardy (3.108) – $1.2MM

Twins (10)

• Jake Odorizzi (5.042) – $9.4MM
• Kyle Gibson (5.039) – $7.9MM
• C.J. Cron (4.097) – $5.2MM – signed for $4.8MM
• Eddie Rosario (3.120) – $5.0MM
• Max Kepler (2.152) – $3.2MM
• Miguel Sano (3.066) – $3.1MM
• Ehire Adrianza (4.131) – $1.8MM – signed for $1.3MM
• Taylor Rogers (2.145) – $1.6MM
• Byron Buxton (2.160) – $1.2MM
• Trevor May (4.012) – $1.1MM

White Sox (5)

• Jose Abreu (5.000) – $16MM
• Alex Colome (4.118) – $7.3MM
• Yolmer Sanchez (3.134) – $4.7MM
• Carlos Rodon (3.168) – $3.7MM
• Leury Garcia (4.025) – $1.9MM – signed for $1.55MM

Yankees (9)

• Didi Gregorius (5.159) – $12.4MM
• Sonny Gray (5.061) – $9.1MM
• Dellin Betances (5.078) – $6.4MM
• Aaron Hicks (5.041) – $6.2MM
• James Paxton (4.151) – $9.0MM
• Luis Severino (2.170) – $5.1MM
• Austin Romine (5.045) – $2.0MM
• Tommy Kahnle (3.131) – $1.5MM
• Greg Bird (3.053) – $1.5MM

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the seventh year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2018. The number in parentheses next to each player is his estimated Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2017 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement). The Super Two cutoff is 2.123.

Angels (11)

• Martin Maldonado (5.156) – $2.8MM
• Garrett Richards (5.148) – $7.0MM
• Blake Wood (5.131) – $2.2MM
• Matt Shoemaker (3.166) – $4.4MM
• Tyler Skaggs (3.135) – $1.9MM
• Blake Parker (3.036) – $1.7MM
• Jose Alvarez (3.035) – $1.1MM
• C.J. Cron (3.097) – $2.8MM
• Cam Bedrosian (2.153) – $1.2MM
• Andrew Heaney (2.150) – $800K
• J.C. Ramirez (2.139) – $2.6MM

Astros (9)

• Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
• Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
• Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
• Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
• George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
• Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
• Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
• Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
• Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM

Athletics (8)

• Chris Hatcher (4.146) – $2.2MM
• Khris Davis (4.104) – $11.1MM
• Liam Hendriks (4.038) – $1.9MM
• Marcus Semien (3.118) – $3.2MM
• Josh Phegley (3.114) – $1.1MM
• Blake Treinen (3.065) – $2.3MM
• Jake Smolinski (3.016) – $700K
• Kendall Graveman (3.014) – $2.6MM

Blue Jays (8)

• Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
• Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
• Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
• Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
• Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
• Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
• Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
• Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM
• Dominic Leone (2.123) – $1.2MM

Braves (5)

• Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) – $3.7MM
• Chase Whitley (3.099) – $1.0MM
• Sam Freeman (3.066) – $1.2MM
• Dan Winkler (3.000) – $800K
• Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) – $2.7MM

Brewers (6)

• Jeremy Jeffress (4.104) – $2.6MM
• Stephen Vogt (4.084) – $3.9MM
• Jonathan Villar (3.113) – $3.0MM
• Jimmy Nelson (3.107) – $4.7MM
• Hernan Perez (3.079) – $2.2MM
• Corey Knebel (2.151) – $$4.1MM

Cardinals (4)

• Marcell Ozuna (4.124) – $10.9MM
• Michael Wacha (4.062) – $5.9MM
• Tyler Lyons (3.070) – $1.3MM
• Randal Grichuk (3.033) – $2.8MM

Cubs (6)

• Justin Wilson (5.035) – $4.3MM
• Justin Grimm (4.153) – $2.4MM
• Kyle Hendricks (3.081) – $4.9MM
• Tommy La Stella (3.057) – $1.0MM
• Kris Bryant (2.171) – $8.9MM
• Addison Russell (2.167) – $2.3MM

Diamondbacks (13)

• Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
• Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
• A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
• Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
• Brad Boxberger (4.109) – $1.9MM
• Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
• Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
• Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
• David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
• Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
• Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
• Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
• Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM

Dodgers (8)

• Yasmani Grandal (5.115) – $7.7MM
• Alex Wood (4.123) – $6.4MM
• Tony Cingrani (4.088) – $2.2MM
• Josh Fields (4.083) – $2.2MM
• Pedro Baez (3.059) – $1.5MM
• Enrique Hernandez (3.054) – $1.3MM
• Joc Pederson (3.028) – $2.0MM
• Yimi Garcia (3.004) – $700K

Giants (5)

• Will Smith (4.155) – $2.5MM
• Cory Gearrin (4.136) – $1.6MM
• Sam Dyson (3.142) – $4.6MM
• Joe Panik (3.100) – $3.5MM
• Hunter Strickland (2.163) – $1.7MM

Indians (7)

• Lonnie Chisenhall (5.158) – $5.8MM
• Zach McAllister (5.077) – $2.4MM
• Cody Allen (5.076) – $10.8MM
• Dan Otero (4.124) – $1.4MM
• Danny Salazar (3.162) – $5.2MM
• Trevor Bauer (3.158) – $7.7MM
• Abraham Almonte (3.052) – $1.1MM

Mariners (7)

• David Phelps (5.156) – $5.8MM
• Andrew Romine (5.049) – $1.9MM
• Erasmo Ramirez (4.158) – $4.7MM
• Nick Vincent (4.067) – $2.7MM
• Mike Zunino (3.165) – $3.2MM
• James Paxton (3.151) – $5.6MM
• Mike Morin (3.030) – $700K

Marlins (5)

• Derek Dietrich (3.151) – $3.2MM
• Dan Straily (3.126) – $4.6MM
• Justin Bour (3.064) – $3.5MM
• Miguel Rojas (3.043) – $1.1MM
• J.T. Realmuto (3.038) – $4.2MM

Mets (9)

• Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
• A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
• Jeurys Familia (5.023) – $7.4MM
• Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
• Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
• Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
• Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
• Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
• Hansel Robles (2.129) – $1.0MM

Nationals (3)

• Anthony Rendon (4.130) – $11.5MM
• Tanner Roark (4.055) – $7.5MM
• Michael Taylor (3.010) – $2.3MM

Orioles (7)

• Zach Britton (5.158) – $12.2MM
• Brad Brach (5.063) – $5.2MM
• Manny Machado (5.056) – $17.3MM
• Jonathan Schoop (4.027) – $9.1MM
• Kevin Gausman (3.151) – $6.8MM
• Caleb Joseph (3.145) – $1.4MM
• Tim Beckham (3.134) – $3.1MM

Padres (7)

• Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
• Brad Hand (4.092) – $3.8MM
• Carter Capps (4.133) – $1.3MM
• Robbie Erlin (3.078) – $700K
• Kirby Yates (3.021) – $1.1MM
• Cory Spangenberg (3.016) – $2.0MM
• Matt Szczur (2.134) – $800K

Phillies (4)

• Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
• Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
• Luis Garcia (3.006) – $1.4MM
• Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM

Pirates (4)

• Jordy Mercer (5.095) – $6.5MM
• George Kontos (4.171) – $2.7MM
• Gerrit Cole (4.111) – $7.5MM
• Felipe Rivero (2.162) – $3.1MM

Rangers (4)

• Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
• Jurickson Profar (3.165) – $1.1MM
• Keone Kela (3.000) – $1.2MM
• Ryan Rua (2.129) – $900K

Rays (9)

• Adeiny Hechavarria (5.060) – $5.0MM
• Dan Jennings (4.171) – $2.5MM
• Corey Dickerson (4.101) – $6.4MM
• Brad Miller (4.094) – $4.4MM
• Jake Odorizzi (4.042) – $6.5MM
• Jesus Sucre (3.137) – $1.3MM
• Alex Colome (3.118) – $5.5MM
• Steven Souza (3.072) – $3.6MM
• Matt Duffy (3.059) – $900K

Red Sox (13)

• Joe Kelly (5.029) – $3.6MM
• Drew Pomeranz (5.013) – $9.1MM
• Tyler Thornburg (4.057) – $2.1MM
• Brock Holt (4.052) – $2.0MM
• Xander Bogaerts (4.042) – $7.6MM
• Jackie Bradley (3.150) – $5.9MM
• Sandy Leon (3.149) – $2.1MM
• Steven Wright (3.089) – $1.2MM
• Mookie Betts (3.070) – $8.2MM
• Brandon Workman (3.115) – $900K
• Christian Vazquez (3.031) – $1.5MM
• Carson Smith (3.028) – $1.1MM
• Eduardo Rodriguez (2.130) – $2.7MM

Reds (6)

• Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
• Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
• Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
• Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
• Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM

Rockies (5)

• DJ LeMahieu (5.128) – $8.8MM
• Charlie Blackmon (5.102) – $13.4MM
• Chad Bettis (3.096) – $1.5MM
• Chris Rusin (3.092) – $1.4MM
• Zach Rosscup (2.164) – $600K

Royals (3)

• Kelvin Herrera (5.157) – $8.3MM
• Brandon Maurer (4.089) – $3.8MM
• Nate Karns (3.033) – $1.4MM
• Jorge Soler (2.143) – $1.1MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration.  Otherwise, contract calls for $4MM each season from 2018-20.

Tigers (6)

• Jose Iglesias (5.036) – $5.6MM
• Alex Wilson (4.038) – $2.1MM
• Nick Castellanos (4.029) – $7.6MM
• Shane Greene (3.075) – $1.7MM
• James McCann (3.028) – $2.3MM
• Blaine Hardy (2.130) – $800K

Twins (7)

• Eduardo Escobar (5.128) – $4.9MM
• Kyle Gibson (4.039) – $5.3MM
• Ryan Pressly (4.039) – $1.6MM
• Ehire Adrianza (3.131) – $1.0MM
• Robbie Grossman (3.060) – $2.4MM
• Trevor May (3.051) – $600K

White Sox (7)

• Avisail Garcia (4.167) – $6.7MM
• Luis Avilan (4.146) – $2.3MM
• Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM
• Danny Farquhar (3.135) – $1.5MM
• Leury Garcia (3.025) – $1.2MM
• Carlos Rodon (2.168) – $2.0MM
• Yolmer Sanchez (2.134) – $2.1MM

Yankees (8)

• Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
• Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
• Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
• Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
• Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
• Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
• Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
• Chasen Shreve (2.167) – $900K

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  This is the sixth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2017.  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2016 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

The Super Two cutoff will be 2.131. Service time data in this post is now official.  The official MLB minimum is not yet known, but we’re using $508K.

If you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us.  I should note that we are creating subjective projections for Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, outside of the arbitration model, given those players’ existing MLB contracts and the related intricacies.  A full post on Abreu can be found here.

Angels (5)

• Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM
• Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM
• Garrett Richards (4.148) – $7.0MM
• Kole Calhoun (3.130) – $6.9MM
• Matt Shoemaker (2.166) – $3.8MM

Astros (7)

• Nori Aoki (4.148) – $6.8MM
• Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
• Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
• Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
• Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
• Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
• George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
• Jake Marisnick (2.145) – $1.1MM

Athletics (5)

• Yonder Alonso (5.116) – $4.1MM
• Khris Davis (3.104) – $5.0MM
• Stephen Vogt (3.084) – $3.7MM
• Sonny Gray (3.061) – $3.7MM
• Liam Hendriks (3.038) – $1.0MM

Blue Jays (4)

• Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
• Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
• Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
• Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM

Braves (7)

• Josh Collmenter (5.144) – $2.2MM
• Anthony Recker (4.000) – $1.0MM
• Arodys Vizcaino (3.168) – $1.6MM
• Paco Rodriguez (3.120) – $900K
• Ian Krol (2.149) – $1.0MM
• Tuffy Gosewisch (2.154) – $600K

Brewers (4)

• Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM
• Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM
• Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM
• Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM

Cardinals (5)

• Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
• Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
• Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
• Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
• Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM

Cubs (4)

• Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
• Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
• Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
• Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM

Diamondbacks (6)

• Patrick Corbin (4.105) – $4.2MM
• Randall Delgado (4.100) – $1.9MM
• Shelby Miller (3.166) – $4.9MM
• Chris Owings (3.027) – $2.1MM
• Chris Herrmann (3.001) – $1.0MM
• Taijuan Walker (2.142) – $2.8MM

Dodgers (7)

• Yasmani Grandal (4.115) – $5.3MM
• Luis Avilan (3.146) – $1.5MM
• Scott Van Slyke (3.151) – $1.3MM
• Chris Hatcher (3.146) – $1.4MM
• Alex Wood (3.123) – $2.0MM
• Josh Fields (3.092) – $1.2MM
• Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM

Giants (6)

• Eduardo Nunez (5.090) – $4.4MM
• Conor Gillaspie (4.028) – $900K
• George Kontos (3.171) – $1.7MM
• Will Smith (3.155) – $2.3MM
• Cory Gearrin (3.136) – $1.1MM
• Ehire Adrianza (2.131) – $508K

Indians (8)

• Bryan Shaw (5.081) – $4.5MM
• Lonnie Chisenhall (4.158) – $4.1MM
• Zach McAllister (4.077) – $1.7MM
• Cody Allen (4.076) – $7.7MM
• Brandon Guyer (4.066) – $2.0MM
• Dan Otero (3.124) – $1.2MM
• Danny Salazar (2.162) – $3.8MM
• Trevor Bauer (2.158) – $3.7MM

Mariners (9)

• Danny Valencia (5.118) – $5.3MM
• Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM
• Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
• Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM
• Jean Segura (4.065) – $7.3MM
• Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM
• Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM
• James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM
• Jesus Sucre (2.137) – $600K

Marlins (6)

• David Phelps (4.156) – $5.2MM
• Adeiny Hechavarria (4.060) – $3.7MM
• A.J. Ramos (4.030) – $6.8MM
• Tom Koehler (4.016) – $6.2MM
• Marcell Ozuna (3.124) – $4.5MM
• Derek Dietrich (2.151) – $1.8MM

Mets (10)

• Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
• Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
• Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
• Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
• Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
• Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
• Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
• Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
• Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
• Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM

Nationals (5)

• Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM
• Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM
• Derek Norris (4.102) – $4.0MM
• Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM
• Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM

Orioles (9)

• Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM
• Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM
• Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM
• Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM
• Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM
• Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM
• T.J. McFarland (3.006) – $700K
• Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM
• Caleb Joseph (2.145) – $1.0MM

Padres (6)

• Carter Capps (4.007) – $1.0MM
• Wil Myers (3.104) – $4.7MM
• Brad Hand (3.092) – $1.4MM
• Brandon Maurer (3.089) – $1.7MM
• Christian Friedrich (3.046) – $2.0MM
• Yangervis Solarte (3.000) – $2.7MM

Phillies (3)

• Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM
• Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM
• Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM

Pirates (7)

• Tony Watson (5.101) – $5.9MM
• Juan Nicasio (5.084) – $4.6MM
• Jared Hughes (4.162) – $2.5MM
• Jordy Mercer (4.095) – $4.0MM
• Drew Hutchison (3.165) – $2.2MM
• Wade LeBlanc (3.131) – $1.6MM
• Gerrit Cole (3.111) – $4.2MM

Rangers (7)

• Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
• Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
• Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
• A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
• Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
• Jeremy Jeffress (3.104) – $2.9MM
• Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM

Rays (9)

• Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
• Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
• Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
• Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
• Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
• Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
• Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
• Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM
• Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM

Red Sox (10)

• Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM
• Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM
• Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM
• Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM
• Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM
• Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM
• Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM
• Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM
• Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM

Reds (4)

• Zack Cozart (5.084) – $4.7MM
• Blake Wood (4.131) – $2.1MM
• Tony Cingrani (3.088) – $1.9MM
• Billy Hamilton (3.028) – $2.3MM

Rockies (5)

• Jake McGee (5.127) – $6.1MM
• Tyler Chatwood (5.039) – $4.8MM
• Jordan Lyles (5.021) – $3.3MM
• Charlie Blackmon (4.102) – $9.0MM
• Nolan Arenado (3.155) – $13.1MM

Royals (3)

• Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM
• Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM
• Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM

Tigers (6)

• Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM
• Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM
• Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM
• Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM
• Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K
• Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM

Twins (5)

• Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
• Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
• Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
• Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
• Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM

White Sox (9)

• Miguel Gonzalez (5.084) – $2.6MM
• Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
• Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
• Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
• Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
• Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
• Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K

Yankees (7)

• Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
• Adam Warren (4.036) – $2.3MM
• Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
• Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
• Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
• Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
• Tommy Layne (2.144) – $1.2MM

OCTOBER 26: The precise cutoff will be 2.131 years, Dierkes tweets. That means that most of the players noted below will fall short of qualifying, with Kiermaier representing one of the last to sneak into the arb process.

OCTOBER 10: We just published this year’s arbitration projections for all 30 teams this morning, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes follows that up with a report (Twitter link) that the projected Super Two cutoff for this year’s class is expected to fall between two years, 127 days of MLB service time (2.127) and two years, 131 days (2.131). Players who qualify for “Super Two” designation — that is, the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — will be eligible for arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three that the rest of the league will qualify. That can have significant financial implications for both teams and players, and one needs only to look to this morning’s arbitration projections for proof of that point.

For instance, players such as David Peralta (2.120 years of service, $1.6MM projected salary), Rougned Odor (2.121, $4MM) and Dan Straily (2.126, $3.9MM) would fall a bit shy, as would Jesus Sucre ($600K) and Chase Whitley ($900K). In the case of a team like the Reds or Rangers, there’s already in the vicinity of $4MM at stake, and because future all future arbitration salaries are based on prior earnings, there’s a compounding effect at play as well. Super Two status also impacts extension talks, which the Rangers have reportedly explored with Odor’s camp. With Odor likely to fall shy of Super Two status, the Rangers needn’t offer quite as much as they would have had to were Odor slated to be arbitration-eligible four times, as his year-to-year earnings will be a bit lesser with only three trips through the arbitration process.

Meanwhile, players like Brett Oberholtzer (2.127, $1MM) and Kevin Kiermaier (2.131, $2.1MM) will see their earnings increase at least twofold in 2017 (if the lower end of the spectrum holds true, with regards to Oberholtzer). In Kiermaier’s case, he’d stand to roughly quadruple his salary by virtue of qualifying as a Super Two player.

This year’s cutoff, then, will fall pretty closely in line with the cutoffs we’ve seen over the past two years:

• 2015: 2.130
• 2014: 2.133
• 2013: 2.122
• 2012: 2.140
• 2011: 2.146
• 2010: 2.122
• 2009: 2.139

Last year’s Super Two class took players like Kole Calhoun ($3.4MM), Didi Gregorius ($2.425MM), Anthony Rendon ($2.8MM) and, most notably, Nolan Arenado ($5MM), and jump-started their earning power in significant fashion. As can be seen in the above-linked projections, the largest beneficiaries of this year’s Super Two cutoff figure to be George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Danny Salazar, Matt Shoemaker, Sam Dyson and Marcus Stroman — each of whom is projected to take home north of $3.5MM in his first of what will now be four trips through arbitration eligibility.