The Giants are among the clubs that are showing interest in right-hander John Lackey, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). San Francisco, though, is exploring a wide swath of starting pitching options, per Rosenthal, so it only makes sense that Lackey would be among the pitchers to pique the team’s interest. The 37-year-old Lackey has been a popular name on the free-agent market thus far, having reportedly been connected to the Marlins, Cardinals, Cubs, D-Backs, Rangers, Red Sox and Dodgers thus far. Over the weekend, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo listed the Giants and Cubs as the two teams with the best shot to sign Lackey.
Here’s more on the market for rotation arms…
- Executives from teams searching for high-end starting pitching tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Jose Fernandez isn’t available in trades at this time. Sherman spoke with Fernandez’s agent, Scott Boras, about the reported tension between him and the Marlins‘ front office. Boras tells Sherman that he spoke with Miami president of baseball operations Michael Hill the day after the initial negative reports surfaced, with Hill telling him that he looked forward to Fernandez fronting the team’s rotation in 2016.
- In an appearance on TSN 1050 in Canada (audio link), ESPN’s Keith Law discusses David Price with hosts Derek Taylor and Kara Wagland, noting that there’s no reason to believe he would accept anything less than full market value to return to the Blue Jays. Law adds that he’s never felt a reunion between the two sides is likely, pointing out that the MLBPA encourages the top names on the market to take every dollar possible to drive up the price for the second tier of free agents and the following year’s class. The idea of Price returning to Toronto has seemed like a long shot, at best, since he was acquired, given the team’s mid-sized payroll and previous lack of lengthy commitments. Law’s colleague, Buster Olney, wrote recently in his ESPN Insider daily blog post that some evaluators involved in discussions with Price’s camp believe that Price is indicating to all clubs that he’d like to play for them.
- FOX’s Jon Paul Morosi wonders if left-hander Wei-Yin Chen could potentially pull down an annual value of $20MM on his upcoming contract. While that number seems like a stretch, Morosi points out that agents will likely be citing Rick Porcello‘s $20.625MM annual value in contract negotiations this winter. A team paying $20MM+ annually for Chen seems like a stretch to me, but Morosi’s general point about Porcello serving as a reference is interesting; we’ll find out this offseason whether that contract looks like an outlier or one that served to drive up the price for second-tier starting pitchers. Porcello’s name has come up in conversations I’ve had with industry contacts this winter, though only time will tell if his contract does indeed serve to advance the secondary pitching market.
- In a piece for Sports On Earth, MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell tries to peg Zack Greinke‘s free-agent value based on historical comparisons. Cassavell looks at age-based comps in an attempt to gauge how long Greinke will remain effective and the length of contract he’ll ultimately command. Cassavell projects that Greinke can be realistically relied upon for three more high-quality seasons before beginning to regress to above-average (but no longer elite) results, ultimately coming to the conclusion of a six-year, $153MM contract prediction.
Every time I see that number for Porcello it looks worse.
What were the redsox thinking? Pocello will never be better than a #3 starter. He is getting a #1 starter money. If somebody signs Chen for that amount they will regret it.
Hes getting #2 money not really #1 if you ask me.
Only 11 pitchers (probably will be 13-14 soon) have an AAV of $20+ million remaining on their contracts. Porcello is one of those 11. Unless you are the Dodgers or Yankees or Red Sox, a #2 type pitcher (which Porcello isnt) will not get $20+ million a year from any team
Yeah but you could probably triple that number if you count all of the young pitchers making the league minimum or whom are in arbitration. And i disagree with that. A true #2 starter such as a Zimmermann, will command 20m+
The only reason Zimerrmann is not a #1 starter because of the team he played on. He’d be a #1 SP on many teams.
Nope. The reason he’s not a #1 is because his stuff and performance have not been representative of a true #1. There are only a handful of true aces in the game and Zimmermann is in the next group; he’s no Kershaw, Scherzer, Price, etc.
Zimmermann was a number two. Who knows if he still is after guys 2015.
Wrong Fernandez linked.
Thanks. Auto-linker grabbed the wrong one. Fixed now.
Thanks Steve. Love your work.
The link is right
It is now, but only because Tony pointed it out. The automatic player-linking script we used initially pulled the wrong Jose Fernandez.
Greinke wont take less than what Jon Lester got. Trust me on that.
and why would he take less? Grienke has won three out of four decisions over the last five years, logs 210+ inning. He’s worth the money to LA especially because he is lights out at Dodger Stadium.
In the article it projected he would make 6 years 153m while lester makes 6 yr 155m. Thats why I stated that.
don going from a team with talent to a team who wont have any talent if they keep trading some of their best players
Wei-Yin Chen will absolutely not get $20M annually. There are significant differences between the two players. Porcello was 26 when he signed his extention and Chen is 30 years old. Also, Porcello was trending upwards in his performance the past 2 years before his extension, whereas while Chen’s ERA the past few years is similar, is about to leave the prime age of his career. A lot of Porcello’s money in his contract was based off the Red Sox thinking he would continue to improve significantly, whereas with Chen you cannot make that assumption.
The nail was just hit on the head here. If there are second tier pitchers age 26 trending up, then Porcello is a starting point for discussion. Otherwise, forget it.
The Porcello comparison might easily cut the other way–as an example of overpaying for perceived future improvement in performance. Porcello has a career WAA of -.5. I understand what the Red Sox were doing–they thought they were getting someone on the rise and locking in his good years for more than they would have to pay of the free agent market, it might still work out. But it shouldn’t give comfort to someone looking to value the next pitcher.
Since the $20MM doesn’t start until next year, it’s too early to call this contract an overpay. It might be an underpay over the length of the contract.
He wouldn’t have got anywhere near that sum if he was a FA now so it’s most certainly an overpay. Time will tell if he lives up to the deal.
Which ever team gets lackey make sure they have beer in the dugout
MLBPA advises players to turn free agency into an auction so as to artificially drive up the value of mid-tier free agents and to establish an inflated benchmark for next year’s FA class, and nobody cares. Imagine if owners all got together and openly stated that they wouldn’t offer top dollar to the top free agents because they wanted to artificially drive down the value of second-tier free agents and next year’s FA class…
If my bargaining unit said anything like that out loud there’d be a new RFP out trying to find someone else to do our job by the end of the week.
This is what I have felt for a long time