Headlines

  • Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake
  • Jose Altuve To Undergo Surgery On Fractured Thumb
  • Rockies To Sign Jurickson Profar
  • Jose Altuve Leaves WBC Game After Hit By Pitch
  • Edwin Diaz Undergoes Surgery To Repair Patellar Tendon
  • Out Of Options 2023
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • Top 50 Free Agents
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Arbitration Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Where Does The 2015-16 Free Agent Market Stand?

By Jeff Todd | December 28, 2015 at 1:33pm CDT

As the end of 2015 approaches, it seems an opportune time to take stock of the free agent market. Plenty of contracts have met or exceeded already-lofty expectations. But it’s also rather notable that a variety of high-end players — including five of MLBTR’s ten highest-rated free agents coming into the winter and multiple players predicted to earn over $100MM — remain available.

Thus far, 69 players have signed for a total of $1.609B. That’s a big chunk of change, to be sure, but still falls shy of the $2B+ in total commitments handed out in the winter of 2013-14.

Expectations have long been that this year’s market would break records in terms of total spend, and the quality and volume of free agents still unsigned continues to suggest that will occur. There’s no question that a huge amount of earning potential remains available at this point in the current market. Above-average to premium position players include Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Howie Kendrick, and Denard Span. There are still quality arms out there, as well: Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, and Scott Kazmir among them.

Every one of those players placed among MLBTR’s top thirty available free agents. All but Span was predicted to land a $50MM+ contract. And we attributed over $1B in total earning capacity to those thirteen players alone.

But with the free agent market dragging along slowly, especially for position players, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney wonders whether it’s time for some of those players to consider pillow contracts. He says that Upton, Desmond, and Kazmir are among those who ought to begin thinking about taking one-year deals. And Olney suggests that some — he names Gallardo and Kennedy — might even need to prepare for the possibility of a holdout into the regular season.

From my perspective, it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see a few top-fifty free agents settle for a chance to re-enter the market with as part of a weaker 2016-17 class. But there’s also little reason to give up on a bigger contract at this stage, and good reason to believe that many or most will still reach or exceed expectations.

Olney is right to note that next year’s much-less-appealing slate of free agents will provide some incentive for players to settle for one-year arrangements. But the less exciting market to come also impacts teams, who have some added incentive to lock into a player at an area of need if the future replacement options don’t look promising.

I’d suggest, too, that a delay in the market shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as an indication that money has dried up. We’ve seen before that funding can still available well into the spring. Back in that boom class of 2013-14, for example, over $440MM was spent after the calendar turned to the near year (not including players who waited until mid-season, but factoring in the total outlay needed for the Yankees to land Masahiro Tanaka).

And this year’s remaining free agent class is much more impressive than the group whose signing timeline was put on hold by the great Tanaka chase. It should be paid as such, even if each individual won’t max out their earning potential.

We’ve already heard, for instance, that at least Davis, Gordon, and Kazmir have fielded significant offers, and are apparently holding out for something better. And it’s not at all uncommon for big cash to be committed late. We’ve seen nine-figure deals go to players like Tanaka, Max Scherzer, and Prince Fielder after the new year. And there are numerous examples of lengthy contracts with $10MM+ AAVs that have been handed out in January, February, or March — including James Shields, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, Nick Swisher, and Michael Bourn.

It’s probably worth bearing in mind the lesson of Ervin Santana, whose market fell apart after he apparently pushed too hard for a bigger contract. But his case also demonstrates that the downside risk isn’t so bad, either, as he struck a $15MM contract for his single season and then got over $50MM the next year upon re-entering the market.

While it’s true that there’s more supply left this time around than is usually the case, that could simply be a reflection of the outstanding class of players on the open market and the numerous options at some positions. The market for power bats, in particular, has several players and teams involved who may be waiting for a first mover to break the present standstill.

In some ways, moreover, the early spending this year suggests that there will still be plenty of cash to go around over the next few months. Nobody anticipated the Diamondbacks committing over $200MM to one player. Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist both went to a team (the Cubs) that didn’t necessarily seem in clear need of adding them. The trickle-down effect is that the other clubs with interest in those kinds of players remain in the market.

At this point, it’s also worth noting, only eleven clubs have even committed $20MM to a single player. The Dodgers, Angels, Rangers, Astros, White Sox, Yankees, and Mets are not among them. And only five teams have awarded contracts of $50MM or more, with the Cubs and Giants each giving two. So there’s probably more capacity — if not also willingness — to spend.

However the market develops, it seems fair to say that we could be in for an unusually active spring in terms of free agency. As camp begins to approach and extension season moves into focus, there’s still plenty of potential for intrigue.

My own expectation is that the market will still pay out over $2.5B in total commitments by the time it’s all said and done. In addition to the thirteen players discussed above, there are numerous other members of the open market who seem likely to sign guaranteed deals. What do you think?

Share 14 Retweet 3 Send via email0

MLBTR Originals

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/28/15
Main
Cuban Pitcher Yaisel Sierra Declared A Free Agent
View Comments (9)

Comments

  1. cmancoley

    7 years ago

    Angels swoop a trade for a SP and score Parra or Fowler

    Reply
  2. Indyjuster

    7 years ago

    Or maybe the teams are still reeling from the horrible contracts they have handed out over the last decade and are tightening up. All of the players listed have glaring holes in their game and all of the pitchers are on the wrong side of 30. I think hitters that aren’t 5 tool players and pitchers that are over 30 and/or have injury problems are fooling themselves if they think they are getting giant long term contracts…

    I mean when the Astros and their 30 million dollar payroll swept the Dodgers and their 300 million dollar payroll during the regular season, and then get further in the postseason it doesn’t make you want to run out and overspend on average free agents…

    Reply
    • afenton530

      7 years ago

      Slight exaggeration on the payrolls, but exactly true. The last place team, Philadelphia, payed $135M to win 63 games.

      Reply
  3. bruinlife33

    7 years ago

    IMO big budget teams do not want to outbid themselves on getting players on high contracts only to be unproductive. More importantly, traditional big budget teams have seen the Astros, Rays and Royals become successful with manageable budgets.

    Reply
    • Niekro

      7 years ago

      That isn’t something new though the A’s and Cardinals have been doing it for years, in fact their is more “Spenders” now than ever Last year only 8 teams were under 100 million dollars, The Royals had a 113 million dollar payroll. Greinke just received a huge contract from a non traditional spender. This has more to do with the Dodgers/Yankees looking ahead to 2018 than any thing else.

      Reply
  4. kbarr888

    7 years ago

    Justin Upton, the youngest major FA left……is in a position to sign a lucrative 2-3 year deal (similar to an opt-out), then cash in again when he’s 31……if teams are balking at giving him a 7 or 8 year contract.. Greinke just did it……Heyward very possibly could do it……but Upton has the skill set to pull it off. Just 2 years older than Heyward, he could fill Heyward’s shoes in RF for the Cards for a few years, then their young core will definitely be ready to take over in the OF…..(Pham / Grichuk / Piscotty)…..they’re actually very close right now! Upton then could move to the AL, where he could play the field for a few more years, then move to a DH role, with spot starts in the OF.

    Reply
    • hallzilla

      7 years ago

      Kbarr, I agree with 99 % of your post. The slight difference is that I think Upton will still require a 6-7 year deal. (with an opt-out after 3 yr.) He’ll want the guaranteed $$$ of a 6-7 year deal, with the chance to make more after 3. I strongly DISAGREE with Buster Olney, there’s no way Upton takes a 1 year “pillow” contract. Even if Upton’s price drops to the 6 year-$105 mil range, he’ll take it and use the opt-out. That’s too much money to take a chance on losing due to injury. I agree with you, Upton would look good in Cardinal red. Wish it would happen, don’t think it will.

      Reply
  5. mctigers

    7 years ago

    The owners don’t see things the way we do, as readers or even mlb trade rumors writers. We see stats and production, they see dollars. We think the market is set by things like 1 WAR = $X. But there is more than winning going into these contracts. Look at those names… are any of those guys really going to move tons of merchandise or attract interest once their skills deteroriate? Other than Gordon/Davis as hometown favs in KC/Balt, those guys might contribute on the field for a little while, but that’s the end of it. Nobody wants the back end of that contract when you get minimal performance and no notoriety. It’s also why a guy like Pujols or Cabrera DOES get offered big money into those sunset years… they’ll be chasing history and dragging people to the park for one last glimpse while selling nostalgic jerseys to men that remember them from childhood for years to come.

    Reply
    • TheMichigan

      7 years ago

      Not really true, they look at stats, I don’t know one organization who doesn’t I want a guy who produces, over selling jerseys, because if a guy is producing then people want his jersey.

      Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.
Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake

    Jose Altuve To Undergo Surgery On Fractured Thumb

    Rockies To Sign Jurickson Profar

    Jose Altuve Leaves WBC Game After Hit By Pitch

    Edwin Diaz Undergoes Surgery To Repair Patellar Tendon

    Out Of Options 2023

    Cade Cavalli To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Edwin Diaz Helped Off Field With Right Knee Injury

    José Quintana Out Until At Least July Due To Rib Surgery

    Trevor Bauer Signs With NPB’s Yokohama DeNA BayStars

    Craig Stammen “Highly Unlikely” To Pitch Again Following Shoulder Injury

    Diamondbacks, Corbin Carroll Agree To Eight-Year Deal

    Nationals Sign Keibert Ruiz To Eight-Year Extension

    Rockies Showing Interest In Jurickson Profar

    Andrew Painter Diagnosed With UCL Sprain; Ranger Suarez Dealing With Forearm Tightness

    Marlins, Jose Iglesias Agree To Minor League Contract

    Marlins In Agreement With Yuli Gurriel On Minor League Deal

    Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino To Begin Season On IL

    Mitch Moreland Announces Retirement

    Astros Facing Gaps In Extension Talks With Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

    Recent

    Latest On D-Backs’ Rotation

    Matt Foster Diagnosed With Forearm Strain

    Adrian Houser Expected To Begin Season In Brewers’ Bullpen

    Competition Committee Evaluating Potential Alterations To 2023 Rule Changes

    Rockies Option Nolan Jones

    Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake

    Red Sox’ Joely Rodríguez Diagnosed With Grade 2 Oblique Strain

    Phillies Acquire Jordan Qsar From Rays

    Angels’ José Marte Shut Down For Four Weeks With Stress Reaction In Elbow

    Rangers Plan To Use Robbie Grossman As Primary Left Fielder

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Offseason Outlook Series
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Go Ad-Free
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2023-24 MLB Free Agent List
    • MLB Player Chats
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • Feeds by Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version