9:46pm: A source tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that the Nats are “heavily involved” and are making a “legit” effort to sign the young outfielder. He adds, interestingly, that Taylor “would become expendable” if a deal is struck.
From an analytical perspective, it seems plenty plausible that the team could add Heyward (or another outfielder) and keep Taylor. For one thing, there’s plenty of justification to give him further developmental time at Triple-A. For another, he’d still be an important depth piece in the near term and would have plenty of possibilities for increased playing time with the clock ticking on Werth’s contract (and perhaps also his time as a full-time regular).
7:24pm: Washington is a “serious threat” to land Heyward, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports on Twitter.
3:45pm: The Nationals are the “mystery team” pursuing free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. They are joined in the chase for Heyward by the Cubs and Cardinals, per the report.
It’s not known which of those clubs — if not another — is in the lead, but Heyman adds in another tweet that Heyward has at least one offer at or over $200MM on the table. That’s not exactly surprising, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Heyward would reach the double-century mark, but does appear to suggest that he’ll be in position to maximize his potential market value.
Heyward’s youth and broad skillset make him a tantalizing target even for clubs that otherwise seem set in the outfield, as I explained in breaking down Heyward’s free agent case in late October. He’s a very good, but not great, hitter who has never returned to the power ceiling he showed earlier in his career. But he’s at the top of the class in basically every other area.
It’s possible that Washington would utilize Heyward in center field were he to land there, Heyman suggests. While the team has youngster Michael A. Taylor lined up to take over there, he’s still raw. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that veteran Jayson Werth has only two years left on his deal and could ultimately stand to receive added rest given his nagging injuries over the years. While trades could be considered in the wake of a signing, it’s also possible to imagine Heyward splitting his time up the middle and in the corner for some time as the teams waits to see what happens with its other options.
Harper/Heyward for 2/3’s of the outfield sounds really good to me!
Nats could give him 10/230.
That would be insane. And not the good kind of insane.
100% agree hes not worth that…
he’s “worth” whatever someone is willing to pay him. Insane? sure. but there are a couple dozen “insane” contracts out there in MLB.
That would be a bold move. I’d assume whatever he has on the table now is closer to 7 years, so a higher AAV, but not as much total cash. If it’s one of those deals with an opt-out, I could see him going that route. Earn more money short-term, maybe see the power spike and opt out in 3-4 years when the market still needs a defensive stud OF with OBP skills and newly spiked power?!
That’s Dave Stewart crazy.
and what about the 400 million they need to sign Harper?
Let’s go Cubbies- Please! Anything to keep Heyward out of a Nats uni!!!!!!!
Let’s see if Rizzo loses out on Heyward like he has on everyone else the Nats have pursued this off season.
Who besides Zobrist (whom they actually had the high bid on)?
They did not have high bid. Mets did @4 for $60 mil
Lets hope* you mean
By Rizzo, you mean Mozeliak, right?
8 yr? 10 yr 200? For once, I’m glad Giants are cheap haha
The Giants are cheap?
The Nats.. really? Dont they realize Harper will demand a 400 million contract once he becomes a FA?
It’s a foregone conclusion that he’s going to the Yankees.
If George was alive, I’d like the chances. But no, it is not a forgone conclusion
I concur with that. I actually think that the Nats will trade Harper with 1 1/2 years left.. They could get a haul for him if a team has i extra year of control.. His lifelong dream was to play for the Yanks.
I keep hearing that…all because he mentioned when he was 15 in SI that that was the case. You don’t think when people become adults they don’t look at things from a different perspective?
Harper is a Yankee. Accept that.
Every time someone will be a Yankee, they end up staying with their team or go elsewhere
That’s some insightful information right there.
Yes, Harper’s father is wearing a Mantle jersey as we speak!
Im thinking 500! If it goes down. They will have werth deal off the books same year bryce is FA. Only thing i can see that might make this make sense
can someone explain to me heyward the hitter? I’ve read that war overrates him tremendously, while other say different. He hit 27 hr a couple years ago, any chance he ever gets back there? Literally 2 si articles contradicting each other: http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/01/jason-heyward-free-agency-whats-he-really-worth ( claiming he is worth at least 300 mil) vs http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/09/jason-heyward-free-agent-winter-meetings (a rightfielder who hits like Neil Walker but will get paid like Prince Fielder).
It pretty much depends on what you value. As a hitter, he’s good but not great. Hasn’t shown a lot of pop in recent years, but he gets on and can run once he is on. There are people who look at his HR and RBI and say “he’s not worth that kind of money”.
Then there are the people who look at WAR and WAR+, which also take into account defense and baserunning and range and such, and, due to his defense and baserunning and range and such, he is ranked EXTREMELY high in WAR (like top 10 over one measurement period and top 5 over another…I’m too lazy to look them up).
So, looking at him purely as a hitter, it’s a “no”. But if you value all the other “intangibles” (which WAR attempts to make tangible), there’s an argument to be made…
Range and base running don’t really age well. That’s what baffles me about this 10 year contract nonsense.
Even when you iso out his slugging relative to batting average, it’s been all over the place. But then the eyeball test says this guy should be so good. Which I guess is why his “similar through age 25” is so telling of the wide range of opinions on Heyward. Two names stand out for me. Barry Bonds :D… and Delmon Young D:
Heyward is a nice player. But he’s being offered this money for potential, not actual production. If I were a GM, I would pass on him at this point if we’re talking $200m. He’ might be wonderful with defense but you’re basically paying a LOT of money for 15hr, 80rbi and a 280 average.
Cardinals are out of it then, From CardinalNation thanks Jason and good luck! Moving on, get Cespedes or Upton on the phone, time to do business.
Nah, Davis makes the most sense now.
Depends on what Davis is really seeking. So many conflicting reports. I wouldn’t pony up 7 years for him
I think they should go after Alex Gordon.
Not the worst plan B, however, I think its a lateral move to Heyward. The Cards need an impact bat. Otherwise the 2016 version of the Cardinals will be a replica of 2015 team, only older with more health issues
It’s a terrible plan B. It’s like paying Heyward, but only for the decline years and not getting the good part of the contract.
alex gordon. we don’t want a hitting strike out artist
Except it has been stated that it is Heyward or nothing so… I hope they overspend to get him.
The Cards aren’t going to stand pat if they miss out on Heyward….. you got a source on that?
http://www.stlsportspage.com/CARDSBASEBALL/tabid/91/entryid/3384/cardinals-likely-to-go-with-internal-options-if-heyward-leaves.aspx
Dude, if they miss out on J Hey they will ink an impact bat at that point, they have to then
I hope so. I do not believe so.
Upton with $ left over for a pitching upgrade makes more sense than Heyward ever did..
I would say plan B for Cards:
1. Alex Gordon and Wei-Yin Chen
2. Cespedes and Wei-Yin Chen
3. Trade for Cargo and sign Wei-Yin Chen
4. Upton and Wei-Yin Chen
I would like to see them trade for freeman and tehran. And trade for blackmon or cargo.It would cost some prospects but then they wouldnt have to give huge free agent contracts which they seem very hesitant to do.
Freeman? No thanks, we trade for Cargo – Piscotty will run 1B
Why Cargo? I see his named tossed out constantly by fans, but I don’t understand why. His career home/road splits are significant, he’s nothing special defensively, and he’s never been one to walk much. Plus, the Rox would likely want an outfield replacement who’s ML ready. For Cards that’s likely Grichuk or Piscotty, with Grichuk already looking like a better player than Cargo.
I don’t think the Braves are going to go that far.
It depends on what the Cards are willing to part with LOL…You offer an over pay package like the Dbacks did for Miller, Coppy has to listen! I think Pittsburgh and Houston have the pieces to pull off a trade for Freeman if they wanted him. The Cards would have to include some of their major league roster, so I don’t really see Stl as a fit for Freeman.
Was hoping the M’s would do something, but hey, it’s my pipe dream not yours!
My condolences my depressed friend, no worries…you always have good coffee and the Seahawks to fall back on.
a $200 million might not mean much to Heyward. Yes, there’s a certain ego boost to being one of the rare $200 million players in MLB history, but if you believe that there’s going to be an opt-out built in midway through this deal, then the AAV is likely to mean more than the overall value.
I dont think hes even worth 100 million, You would be paying 200 million for a great defender?, average bat ( that can be very streaky) and declining power, What the hell are they thinking about
Declining power????? The guy is 26. We don’t even know what his ceiling is yet…..
Peak isn’t normally a function of age strictly. How long you’ve been in the majors is a big part too. Heyward could easily be right around his peak now.
Exactly. the comments of some aren’t well thought out.
He’s a ~120 WRC+ guy, which is well above-average offensively. He’s basically a top-20 hitter among outfielders, and that’s his weakest skill by far.
The Cardinals better have a plan B *cough* Cespedes*cough*.
What position? Holliday is in left…
He was a CF in Cuba, and I was never impressed with him in LF. He has a strong arm though so he might be a good RF option.
I’d imagine that the Nats giving Heyward a contract like this might have an effect on extension talks with Harper during the next couple of years.
Think about that… Give 20mil to Heyward and the money to Max and before you know it you got 90mil tied Into 3 players when you give Harper 30-40mil
I’ll be surprised if they sign heyward and then pay harper as well
sign heyward and trade harper! the package would be huge!
The package to trade for Harper probably doesn’t exist actually.
jose fernandez and ozuna for harper and taylor?
It would take most bottom level teams starting line-ups.
Exactly. People think the asking price for Fernandez was big. The asking price for Harper will make that seem like peanuts. At a casual glance, only 2-3 teams have even a chance of meeting it and that would require them decimating their farm systems + young major league talent.
Nah. To stay with Marlins, Fernandez and Stanton for Harper. But why would any team want to part with franchise pieces for a different team’s franchise piece? Like I get that teams might want Harper, but they’re probably not going to get him without parting with a bonafide comparable perennial all star AND a top-5 or 10 prospect.
So if they sign Heyward, will they even have enough money to give Harper an extension down the road? I dobut it
Completely agree. This tells me that the Nats don’t think they can resign Harper. There is basically no way that the Nats can afford three $200 million plus deals (Scherzer, Harper, and Heyward), especially the way Scherzer’s is set up (still paying him well after his 7 years are up).
If harper stays healthy, he could be the first 400 million dollar player
Are the Nats going to go over to the Mint to print some new money?
Why would the Nats want to sign Heyward to a decade long, big $ contract when their big name players are coming up for FA? They missed their window over the past few seasons and it’s time to start overhauling. An aging Dusty Baker isn’t going to turn this team around.
Do it! They will make the rest of the East happy!
Cubs will get him, makes the most sense.
No, tradeTaylor! He deserves to be on a better team than the Nats!
jk
Heyward and Harper in the same outfield? Yes please. Go get Trout to man centerfield while you’re at it.
$200mm for Heyward? What is Harper, Trout and Goldschmidt going to command on the open market when the time comes?
Republic Credits, enough to buy Naboo
Republic credits are no good here! 🙂
Greatest….comment….ever!!!
Credits WILL do fine.
What, you think you’re some kind of Jedi waving your hand around like that? I’m a baseball player. Mind tricks don’t work on me, only money.
Omg one of the best comment reply chains ever.
My guess Harper & Trout $450 million Paul $300 million. Those would be long term contracts. 10 years or more.
Ditto that!
Good call
Probably just give them 49% ownership of the franchise.
Baseball prevents such inclusions in player contracts
I’d be shocked if Goldy and Trout hit free agency. They should both get locked up by the Dbacks and Angels, respectively. Harper, on the other hand, I don’t think will accept an extension offer unless it’s crazy big. He seems like he may want to explore the biggest contract ever and will probably get it.
I’d be shocked if Goldy and Trout hit free agency. They should both get locked up by the Dbacks and Angels, respectively. Harper, on the other hand, I don’t think will accept an extension offer unless it’s crazy big. He seems like he may want to explore the biggest contract ever and will probably get it
300M or even more, but who cares?
This wouldn’t surprise me. I had a gut feeling that the Nats were going to go after Heyward hard. I for one would love it. They got to get someone in the 3rd spot to let #34 really shine.
Seems to me you would want to stick a righty between them.
Heyward would do better in the 2 or 5 spot.
Congratulations to Heyward. Looks like he’s about to receive a well deserved pay day. I’d like to see him end up in Chicago. Just keep him out of Washington.
deserving? hardly
He’s elite in everything but fully unlocking his power potential, and he’s entering his prime years, when great players usually unlock their power potential.
The nats offseason moves always puzzle me. Sign scherzer when pitching wasn’t an issue and let their homegrown ace walk to the team they wooed scherzer away from. Then they trade escobar who okay got hurt a few times but was still a PIA to play against. Then they go after Heyward when they have harper for three more years, the caveman for two more and taylor for a boat load of year and taylor is a good outfielder and pesky hitter. I just don’t understand their front office. Go sign heyward you’ll just be chasing the mets again this year. though I expect it to be another season long battle.
Chasing the Mets LOL !
Mets are the NL champs why would they be the ones doing the chasing they dont have anything to prove. But that’s fine you go get heyward and convince yourself that he will be the missing puzzle piece to somehow get the nats over that tricky hump they have year after year. Good luck to the nats with only scherzer and .260 batting avg $200 million center fielder they gonna need all the luck they can get. Poor Harper he really deserves better.
Oh man. 200 mil offer in hand? Thats going to be the worst mistake of someones career. This smells of an owner trying to make baseball decisions to sell tickets.
Please don’t be the Cubs that offered him $200m. They have done a pretty good job getting value players for less money this fall/winter. That kind of money would be better spent on a starter.
Cubs outfield needs his defense. Paying 56m to a 35 year old Zorbist doesn’t seem like getting much value.
Zobrist didn’t really cost that much because the Cubs traded Castro which was most of it.
Then you should probably spend some time educating yourself about Zobrist and value.
Drinking the bitter tears of Cards fans who were hoping they’d lock him up for $150M. Reality is, he’s worth more.
It really doesn’t matter where he goes. He alone is not going to win a World Series for any of the three teams. If he goes to the Nats, it’s just a joke. They’re going to have all of their money invested in 3 guys over the next 7-10 years. Good luck with that. I really see him doing the best with the Cubs or Cards tho the Cubs have a much better future ahead of them than the Cardinals.
I agree. He’s a good player but that contract will hamper alot of teams from having the extra money to get the players that will be needed to win a championship. He alone wont put a team over the hump.
I really don’t understand Washington’s logic behind this. Heyward fits well with STL and Chicago. Could really see him thrive in a lineup with Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber and now Zobrist…scary
“tho the Cubs have a much better future ahead of them than the Cardinals.”
It sure seems that way right now, but judging by their track records, I wouldn’t be too sure about that.
Which one baseball player wins a world series for their team? Mike Trout is curious what he’s doing wrong.
Career .266 hitter who doesn’t hit for power goes for $200mm these days? I’m confused… even if he’s the best defensive player in the league.
Yes because career batting average is the only thing teams look at when giving out contracts. Never mind that most of the seasons he hit for a low batting average were before he was 23, when most players are still in the minor leagues.
Please not Washington
-every Braves fan.
I think the Cubs have already improved enough to get further than they did last year without spending 200 million.. Zobrist practically cost nothing after the Castro trade and Lackey is a great deal for only two years. I think they should just trade Baez and a prospect for a pitcher from Cleveland like Carrasco.
They will need Baez at second. I can’t see Zobrist making a whole season at second. Brendan Ryan won’t even make the roster.
“and a prospect” – do you lack enough understanding of their system to name specific players, or do you just choose to make a stupid statement with no substance to it.
Baez + “a prospect” is not even close to enough to land Carrasco. You’re looking at a package that is more like Soler + Baez +.
You are correct in the value part, no question. But if we see a report that things are heating up between the Cubs and the Indians for Carrasco, I’ll tell you right now it’ll be on Baez or Soler and 1-2 prospects that are blocked to the big leagues.
I don’t get it. $200 million for this guy? Seriously??? Nobody else thinks that this is completely insane? It’s irresponsible to play a good player this much money. He isn’t special. This isn’t Griffey Jr. or Tony Gwynn. He’s not even Willie McGee! What the hell is wrong with these owners!?!!
Jayson Werth 2.0
I get the AAV, but what baffles me is the notion that you’d pay him $20MM + for 8-10 years and move him around the OF like a utility player. Even for a couple of seasons. Put him in RF, Harper in LF, and let Taylor and Werth handle CF (with the odd man “out” giving Harper and Heyward the occasional day off).
He would fit much better in Chicago’s lineup and outfield, but I really hope they don’t spend this much to do it. As long as these teams will pay ridiculous sums of money to what used to be considered slightly above average players, then ticket prices will continue to skyrocket.. The only way to stop the madness is to stay home and watch games on tv.
They are making where you can’t even take your family to a game anymore. When I was a kid I could walk into a Cubs game and sit in the bleachers for $7. Now those days are gone. My dad would just pick me up at school head to Wrigley on the El and might spend $20 for the whole day. I can’t do that with my kids as prices go up. Yet they still can’t win a series just a waste of money.
Blame the Fed
Players salaries are not what drive ticket prices up. The owners have been driving ticket prices up way before salaries started sky rocketing. TV contracts is what is driving player salaries through the roof.
Your ideas of how baseball and economics work are painfully lacking
Braves could be a mystery team. Sign Heyward, trade for Frazier, sign a couple oldtimers (Buehrle,Lohse). Automatic 2016 contender.
Typically teams looking to compete next year don’t trade off one of their best pitchers in the offseason.
True, but there’s nothing typical about what the Braves mgmt has done the past year. And they got the mother load for Miller.
Heyward and some old timers would not be enough. Why would the Braves try to get Heyward? They let him go when he was only making 8 million.
Not to mention that the only position player on the entire Braves staff that anybody would want is Freeman, which is the only player they won’t trade.
They traded Heyward before he hit the market. They would’ve had to pay up anyway. And you’re telling me the Reds wouldn’t take some prospects for Frazier?
The Miller deal was really good for the Braves to rebuild with good young talent, and I think that is the direction they will continue in. Maybe next in 2017 they start spending the bucks for help, but now they are planning for the future.
It’s all speculation. If the Braves were to sign Heyward for 9/$200m, some would consider that planning for the near future. He’s from the Atlanta area, and us a fan favorite there. I’m not a Braves fan or a Heyward fan, and I hope my Cards don’t pay that much for him. But Braves management has been unpredictable recently. And I think it’s a possibility
No way is it a possibility that they go trade prospects for Frazier. That’s ridiculous. Heyward? Id say that’s 1 in 25 they get him. They are stock piling young talent for the future, they could care less about 2016 and I would bet that’d rather finish dead last to get a high draft pick to add to their system. Or hope that Arizona just keeps gift wrapping their top picks in idiotic trades.
Ok, this clearly needs to be said. Jason Heyward is not an average hitter. He is a great hitter. He put up a 121 wRC+ last year, significantly above average and has a 118 wRC+ for his career, also significantly above average. He’s not an elite hitter, but he is a well above average hitter. And funnily enough, when you combine great offense, with great baserunning and elite defense, you get an elite player. Yes, Jason Heyward is an elite player. When you put up a 121 wRC+, 7.0 baserunning value, with a 22.6 UZR (that’s a very high number), with 6.0 WAR as a 25 year old,you are elite. According to Fangraphs, Heyward’s season was worth $48M last year. Yes, that’s a very high number, and no he wasn’t worth that much, Fangraphs $$ values likely overvalue elite players, because the average dollar value per win probably decreases as the WAR gets higher. But was Heyward worth $25M last year? Yeah, $30M? Yeah. $35M? Yeah, probably. Now he won’tbe worth $30-35M every year, that would be crazy.But he’s likely to do it enough to be worth $25M annually, even if he has down years. And he’s also young enough where a 9-10 year deal wouldn’t be crazy. Therefore, a 10/220-240 contract for Heyward (or more) is not only reasonable, it has the potential to be one of the better values of the offseason, despite the fact that he doesn’t have the stats that traditional fans like to see.
And no, citing the fact that he doesn’t have a lot of RBI’s is not a valid argument to these points. Heyward could have 15 RBI for the whole year and still be worth that contract.
Great post. I love Heyward, he’ll be worth every penny. Although I do not believe Washing ton is a good fit. STL or Chicago
I’ll disregard that last paragraph because it is silly, but fully agree with the rest. I won’t use numbers to describe what I see in Heyward as a hitter. As a Cubs fan, I judge an opposing player’s quality and award my level of respect based on what happens to my stress level when the player comes to the plate in a key situation. I don’t care who the pitcher is, Heyward will make you pitch your a** off to get an out. And if there are fewer than 2 outs, it will almost invariably be a productive out. Never a wasted AB with this guy and he is a royal pain to deal with in any lineup. There are few other players in the NL who elicit this reaction from me as an opposing fan: Carpenter when he’s on, Votto all day every day, Posey, Harper, and McCutcheon.
Sir, you are in danger of being reasonable on the internet. (Nice job!)
Yes this. Not sure why people don’t see the value of this type of player. If you do everything very well, but not at an elite level, then that makes you a very good player. There is not a single weakness to his game and that has a ton of value.
People are just going overboard on these modern statistics. Most are just hypothetical prediction models that are rarely that accurate for future seasons. I wonder how baseball survived for over a 100 years without WAR stats figuring into owner’s decisions? It’s pretty simple to figure out if someone is good defensively or offensively without reciting all the nonsense above. These stats you quote make good players look great. The truth is he doesn’t hit over .300, he doesn’t have that many home runs or RBIs, he is never going to steal 30 bases a year, and he doesn’t have an OBP over .400, but since he is slightly above average in every category it makes the WAR and every other advanced stat go up.
Yes, the fact that people survived without it means we don’t need it. That’snot ridiculous logic at all. On a related note, how overrated is modern medicine? I mean, people survived for millennia without cancer treatments, who needs them?
PSA: Just because people existed without improved things before, doesn’t mean improvements aren’t still good.
That is a whole different argument. I could go on for hours how modern medicine is not a good thing at all, and that most holistic treatments are better but this is a baseball thread. I guess this is just oldschool vs. new school differing points of view.
It’s not an opinion. It’s a fact modern analytics is has improved analysis of the game. Modern medicine isn’t a good thing? What?!? That is ludicrous.
You do realize don’t you that most businesses will ask someone to “show them the numbers” before making a big decision. It isn’t any different really in baseball.
These numbers and “new fangled” statistical categories exists because someone was looking to put a number on things and compare different type players, playing in different ball parks and and against different teams. In my mind they aren’t perfect but they sure help quantify a lot of things. Whether you or me don’t like them has no bearing on the fact that they are being used more and more to make business decisions costing hundreds of millions of dollars.
Oh and then there is Dave Stewart.
ARRRR-BEEEE-EEYZZZZ!
Correct me if I’m wrong but the mystery team doesn’t become known till after the player has signed?
I think if the Cubs don’t land him, they go with Gordon and then go for Cuteo, it be either Heyward or Gordon then a good pitcher for the Cubs to round out the Winter…One of those two will be the situation for the Cubs..
I hate Cueto, hope the Cubs don’t sign him
Hoyer said yesterday that he was pleased with the rotation going forward. I doubt another high priced free gent is in the mix. Trade? That’s realistic.
Did Donald Trump write the article? Serious Threat? Must have been him!
Cards fan here. I like Heyward but that price is stupid. Holliday, Grich, Piscotty, Pham works just fine.
Couldn’t agree more. After watching Heyward for a full season in stl last year he is a solid player but not worth near this money. He will work an ab and draw some walks but is just average with the bat and its Hard to sell me on defense alone when as a rf he is only involved in about 2 plays a game. The cardinals will be fine without him.
You guys have some crazy ideas lol
I’m sure someone will do it, but I don’t understand why you’d pay him enormous money based on outfield defense. How much can a corner outfielder’s defensive skill really do? Most teams want to generate ground balls anyways. His power is lacking but he could still develop. I think he’s a very good second or third piece for a team but not a 200M asset, Washington seems like they spend money out of boredom sometimes.
Washington will be the highest bidder, Heyward will have to choose what’s more important to him. If he has a 200 million offer, it’s got to. E the Nats
I’m glad people are getting away from error-counting to measure defense, but it still seems like people really don’t like when defensively preventing a run and offensively scoring a run are treated like the same thing. When a good hitter has a “meh” WAR or when a “meh” hitter has a good WAR people kind of freak out.
Hey Nationals you can’t buy a ring in MLB only at a jewelry store. How did that work for you last year?
Anyone else reminded of the Red Sox Dec 2010 signing of Carl Crawford? Crawford was 2yrs older, but just came off a Gold Glove, hit for higher avg, stole more bases, and had more power. Luckily the Angels missed on that one!
Here is the issue I have with the new information that has come to light on Heyward not necessarily seeking a 10 yr deal but more so in the 7,8,9 yr. region.
Forget about his skills, if you sign this guy to an 8 yr contract with AAV of upwards of 24 mil, you’re going to have problems. If they front load it, you’re going to pay him a lot of the contract for his “good” years but you have to expect him to ask for an opt out at around year 4. Say JHey produces well and by year 4 just as he’s starting to become affordable, he opts out. Now you’re on the hook for paying him all those dollars with the expectation that he won’t break the bank in his later years.
Now consider a different scenario in which you sign him to a 9 yr. deal and Heyward struggles and he doesn’t opt out, now your stuck with an aging RFer who’s defense and speed is declining and the bat is about the same. Is 200+ over 9 yrs. really worth it in the grand scheme of things. Either way you’re handcuffed. You either are left with the bill or you are stuck with an aging OFer.
I’d stay away if I were the Cards and consider short term deals with no opt outs. Much safer.
You can also look at it (if there’s an opt-out clause) as if he does well in those first three or four years, you get him in his prime seasons at a reasonable rate. Then, you can let someone else overpay for him for the seasons when he begins to decline.
Why do the Cardinals have to be safe? They pretty much are always a top 5 farm system and have tons of money to spend. Even if Heyward flops they’ll probably make the postseason and win titles anyway, just like they do when they lose their best players all season…they are such a hate-able team if you aren’t a fan, haha
Michael Taylor absolutely does not need more seasoning in the minors, that is an absolutely insane reasoning, that’s on Ozuna-level crazyness, only Taylor’s been nothing but a delight in the clubhouse and Ozuna was acting immature.
If they get Heyward and send Taylor down, he will absolutely win his grievance. You cant “hide” players after theyve been established while you pay out veterans on the last year of their contract.
i wish there were stats that would show how many games are won or lost by a player. heyward would not be very high on the list. noticed many games his stats were good and cardinals lost, bad stats, and they won.
There is. It’s called win-probability added (WPA). It is based on the leverage of the situation (i.e. how close the game is, whether there are men on base, etc.). You can find it at http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0. Heyward was 26th in the majors in WPA.
+1 for the link. I think that may well be my new favorite stat
I think it is safe to assume the Nationals stepped up with the $200MM offer. Keep in mind the tax requirements versus St Louis and Chicago. That alone requires a higher dollar ask. So I don’t think the Cards or Cubs have to go that high to land him. Being a Cards fan, I think the win would be a 7 year, $160MM deal with an opt out after her first four years. If it is more than that, Cards can walk and go sign Upton or Cespedes and maybe a SP. Piscotty moves to first and can platoon with Adams and float between RF and LF to spell Holliday and the new OF. Thats what this Couch GM would do. Which means nothing. 🙂
I would imagine he got 8 years with an opt-out clause?