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Nationals “Serious Threat” To Land Heyward, Who Has $200MM Offer In Hand

By Jeff Todd | December 10, 2015 at 9:49pm CDT

9:46pm: A source tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that the Nats are “heavily involved” and are making a “legit” effort to sign the young outfielder. He adds, interestingly, that Taylor “would become expendable” if a deal is struck.

From an analytical perspective, it seems plenty plausible that the team could add Heyward (or another outfielder) and keep Taylor. For one thing, there’s plenty of justification to give him further developmental time at Triple-A. For another, he’d still be an important depth piece in the near term and would have plenty of possibilities for increased playing time with the clock ticking on Werth’s contract (and perhaps also his time as a full-time regular).

7:24pm: Washington is a “serious threat” to land Heyward, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports on Twitter.

3:45pm: The Nationals are the “mystery team” pursuing free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. They are joined in the chase for Heyward by the Cubs and Cardinals, per the report.

It’s not known which of those clubs — if not another — is in the lead, but Heyman adds in another tweet that Heyward has at least one offer at or over $200MM on the table. That’s not exactly surprising, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Heyward would reach the double-century mark, but does appear to suggest that he’ll be in position to maximize his potential market value.

Heyward’s youth and broad skillset make him a tantalizing target even for clubs that otherwise seem set in the outfield, as I explained in breaking down Heyward’s free agent case in late October. He’s a very good, but not great, hitter who has never returned to the power ceiling he showed earlier in his career. But he’s at the top of the class in basically every other area.

It’s possible that Washington would utilize Heyward in center field were he to land there, Heyman suggests. While the team has youngster Michael A. Taylor lined up to take over there, he’s still raw. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that veteran Jayson Werth has only two years left on his deal and could ultimately stand to receive added rest given his nagging injuries over the years. While trades could be considered in the wake of a signing, it’s also possible to imagine Heyward splitting his time up the middle and in the corner for some time as the teams waits to see what happens with its other options.

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Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Jason Heyward Mystery Team

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View Comments (171)

Comments

  1. steven-6

    8 years ago

    Harper/Heyward for 2/3’s of the outfield sounds really good to me!

    Reply
  2. slider32

    8 years ago

    Nats could give him 10/230.

    Reply
    • fps916

      8 years ago

      That would be insane. And not the good kind of insane.

      Reply
      • michaelw

        8 years ago

        100% agree hes not worth that…

        Reply
        • Lance

          8 years ago

          he’s “worth” whatever someone is willing to pay him. Insane? sure. but there are a couple dozen “insane” contracts out there in MLB.

          Reply
    • Jeremiah Graves

      8 years ago

      That would be a bold move. I’d assume whatever he has on the table now is closer to 7 years, so a higher AAV, but not as much total cash. If it’s one of those deals with an opt-out, I could see him going that route. Earn more money short-term, maybe see the power spike and opt out in 3-4 years when the market still needs a defensive stud OF with OBP skills and newly spiked power?!

      Reply
    • AsFan89

      8 years ago

      That’s Dave Stewart crazy.

      Reply
    • andyb

      8 years ago

      and what about the 400 million they need to sign Harper?

      Reply
  3. BravesNomad

    8 years ago

    Let’s go Cubbies- Please! Anything to keep Heyward out of a Nats uni!!!!!!!

    Reply
  4. tex

    8 years ago

    Let’s see if Rizzo loses out on Heyward like he has on everyone else the Nats have pursued this off season.

    Reply
    • seamaholic 2

      8 years ago

      Who besides Zobrist (whom they actually had the high bid on)?

      Reply
      • Shane T

        8 years ago

        They did not have high bid. Mets did @4 for $60 mil

        Reply
    • natsgm

      8 years ago

      Lets hope* you mean

      Reply
    • jimbo504 2

      8 years ago

      By Rizzo, you mean Mozeliak, right?

      Reply
  5. g55s

    8 years ago

    8 yr? 10 yr 200? For once, I’m glad Giants are cheap haha

    Reply
    • jd396

      8 years ago

      The Giants are cheap?

      Reply
  6. RedFeather

    8 years ago

    The Nats.. really? Dont they realize Harper will demand a 400 million contract once he becomes a FA?

    Reply
    • dotnet19

      8 years ago

      It’s a foregone conclusion that he’s going to the Yankees.

      Reply
      • MB923

        8 years ago

        If George was alive, I’d like the chances. But no, it is not a forgone conclusion

        Reply
      • breeze27

        8 years ago

        I concur with that. I actually think that the Nats will trade Harper with 1 1/2 years left.. They could get a haul for him if a team has i extra year of control.. His lifelong dream was to play for the Yanks.

        Reply
        • alphakira 2

          8 years ago

          I keep hearing that…all because he mentioned when he was 15 in SI that that was the case. You don’t think when people become adults they don’t look at things from a different perspective?

          Reply
    • fps916

      8 years ago

      Harper is a Yankee. Accept that.

      Reply
      • MB923

        8 years ago

        Every time someone will be a Yankee, they end up staying with their team or go elsewhere

        Reply
        • cards1

          8 years ago

          That’s some insightful information right there.

          Reply
      • slider32

        8 years ago

        Yes, Harper’s father is wearing a Mantle jersey as we speak!

        Reply
    • natsgm

      8 years ago

      Im thinking 500! If it goes down. They will have werth deal off the books same year bryce is FA. Only thing i can see that might make this make sense

      Reply
  7. bobbycurls

    8 years ago

    can someone explain to me heyward the hitter? I’ve read that war overrates him tremendously, while other say different. He hit 27 hr a couple years ago, any chance he ever gets back there? Literally 2 si articles contradicting each other: si.com/mlb/2015/12/01/jason-heyward-free-agency-wh… ( claiming he is worth at least 300 mil) vs si.com/mlb/2015/12/09/jason-heyward-free-agent-win… (a rightfielder who hits like Neil Walker but will get paid like Prince Fielder).

    Reply
    • cpav1130

      8 years ago

      It pretty much depends on what you value. As a hitter, he’s good but not great. Hasn’t shown a lot of pop in recent years, but he gets on and can run once he is on. There are people who look at his HR and RBI and say “he’s not worth that kind of money”.

      Then there are the people who look at WAR and WAR+, which also take into account defense and baserunning and range and such, and, due to his defense and baserunning and range and such, he is ranked EXTREMELY high in WAR (like top 10 over one measurement period and top 5 over another…I’m too lazy to look them up).

      So, looking at him purely as a hitter, it’s a “no”. But if you value all the other “intangibles” (which WAR attempts to make tangible), there’s an argument to be made…

      Reply
      • amishthunderak

        8 years ago

        Range and base running don’t really age well. That’s what baffles me about this 10 year contract nonsense.

        Reply
    • lonechicken

      8 years ago

      Even when you iso out his slugging relative to batting average, it’s been all over the place. But then the eyeball test says this guy should be so good. Which I guess is why his “similar through age 25” is so telling of the wide range of opinions on Heyward. Two names stand out for me. Barry Bonds :D… and Delmon Young D:

      Reply
      • Lance

        8 years ago

        Heyward is a nice player. But he’s being offered this money for potential, not actual production. If I were a GM, I would pass on him at this point if we’re talking $200m. He’ might be wonderful with defense but you’re basically paying a LOT of money for 15hr, 80rbi and a 280 average.

        Reply
  8. thestevilempire

    8 years ago

    Cardinals are out of it then, From CardinalNation thanks Jason and good luck! Moving on, get Cespedes or Upton on the phone, time to do business.

    Reply
    • jimbo504 2

      8 years ago

      Nah, Davis makes the most sense now.

      Reply
      • thestevilempire

        8 years ago

        Depends on what Davis is really seeking. So many conflicting reports. I wouldn’t pony up 7 years for him

        Reply
        • dotnet19

          8 years ago

          I think they should go after Alex Gordon.

          Reply
          • thestevilempire

            8 years ago

            Not the worst plan B, however, I think its a lateral move to Heyward. The Cards need an impact bat. Otherwise the 2016 version of the Cardinals will be a replica of 2015 team, only older with more health issues

            Reply
            • stl_cards16 2

              8 years ago

              It’s a terrible plan B. It’s like paying Heyward, but only for the decline years and not getting the good part of the contract.

              Reply
      • timyanks

        8 years ago

        alex gordon. we don’t want a hitting strike out artist

        Reply
    • mattsmattedin

      8 years ago

      Except it has been stated that it is Heyward or nothing so… I hope they overspend to get him.

      Reply
      • jimbo504 2

        8 years ago

        The Cards aren’t going to stand pat if they miss out on Heyward….. you got a source on that?

        Reply
        • mattsmattedin

          8 years ago

          stlsportspage.com/CARDSBASEBALL/tabid/91/entryid/3…

          Reply
      • thestevilempire

        8 years ago

        Dude, if they miss out on J Hey they will ink an impact bat at that point, they have to then

        Reply
        • mattsmattedin

          8 years ago

          I hope so. I do not believe so.

          Reply
    • spike 2

      8 years ago

      Upton with $ left over for a pitching upgrade makes more sense than Heyward ever did..

      Reply
    • RedFeather

      8 years ago

      I would say plan B for Cards:
      1. Alex Gordon and Wei-Yin Chen
      2. Cespedes and Wei-Yin Chen
      3. Trade for Cargo and sign Wei-Yin Chen
      4. Upton and Wei-Yin Chen

      Reply
      • bighiggy

        8 years ago

        I would like to see them trade for freeman and tehran. And trade for blackmon or cargo.It would cost some prospects but then they wouldnt have to give huge free agent contracts which they seem very hesitant to do.

        Reply
        • RedFeather

          8 years ago

          Freeman? No thanks, we trade for Cargo – Piscotty will run 1B

          Reply
          • gojira15

            8 years ago

            Why Cargo? I see his named tossed out constantly by fans, but I don’t understand why. His career home/road splits are significant, he’s nothing special defensively, and he’s never been one to walk much. Plus, the Rox would likely want an outfield replacement who’s ML ready. For Cards that’s likely Grichuk or Piscotty, with Grichuk already looking like a better player than Cargo.

            Reply
        • basquiat

          8 years ago

          I don’t think the Braves are going to go that far.

          Reply
          • braves25

            8 years ago

            It depends on what the Cards are willing to part with LOL…You offer an over pay package like the Dbacks did for Miller, Coppy has to listen! I think Pittsburgh and Houston have the pieces to pull off a trade for Freeman if they wanted him. The Cards would have to include some of their major league roster, so I don’t really see Stl as a fit for Freeman.

            Reply
  9. Buddy “Bud” Hull

    8 years ago

    Was hoping the M’s would do something, but hey, it’s my pipe dream not yours!

    Reply
    • thestevilempire

      8 years ago

      My condolences my depressed friend, no worries…you always have good coffee and the Seahawks to fall back on.

      Reply
  10. justinept

    8 years ago

    a $200 million might not mean much to Heyward. Yes, there’s a certain ego boost to being one of the rare $200 million players in MLB history, but if you believe that there’s going to be an opt-out built in midway through this deal, then the AAV is likely to mean more than the overall value.

    Reply
  11. satan

    8 years ago

    I dont think hes even worth 100 million, You would be paying 200 million for a great defender?, average bat ( that can be very streaky) and declining power, What the hell are they thinking about

    Reply
    • dotnet19

      8 years ago

      Declining power????? The guy is 26. We don’t even know what his ceiling is yet…..

      Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        8 years ago

        Peak isn’t normally a function of age strictly. How long you’ve been in the majors is a big part too. Heyward could easily be right around his peak now.

        Reply
      • jswat

        8 years ago

        Exactly. the comments of some aren’t well thought out.

        Reply
    • Ted

      8 years ago

      He’s a ~120 WRC+ guy, which is well above-average offensively. He’s basically a top-20 hitter among outfielders, and that’s his weakest skill by far.

      Reply
  12. Matt Carpenter's Eyebrows

    8 years ago

    The Cardinals better have a plan B *cough* Cespedes*cough*.

    Reply
    • mattsmattedin

      8 years ago

      What position? Holliday is in left…

      Reply
      • AsFan89

        8 years ago

        He was a CF in Cuba, and I was never impressed with him in LF. He has a strong arm though so he might be a good RF option.

        Reply
  13. thestarlinddconnection

    8 years ago

    I’d imagine that the Nats giving Heyward a contract like this might have an effect on extension talks with Harper during the next couple of years.

    Reply
    • TJECK109

      8 years ago

      Think about that… Give 20mil to Heyward and the money to Max and before you know it you got 90mil tied Into 3 players when you give Harper 30-40mil

      Reply
    • Philliesfan4life

      8 years ago

      I’ll be surprised if they sign heyward and then pay harper as well

      Reply
      • jedihoyer

        8 years ago

        sign heyward and trade harper! the package would be huge!

        Reply
        • cards1

          8 years ago

          The package to trade for Harper probably doesn’t exist actually.

          Reply
          • jedihoyer

            8 years ago

            jose fernandez and ozuna for harper and taylor?

            Reply
          • slider32

            8 years ago

            It would take most bottom level teams starting line-ups.

            Reply
          • biogeek23

            8 years ago

            Exactly. People think the asking price for Fernandez was big. The asking price for Harper will make that seem like peanuts. At a casual glance, only 2-3 teams have even a chance of meeting it and that would require them decimating their farm systems + young major league talent.

            Reply
            • pox911

              8 years ago

              Nah. To stay with Marlins, Fernandez and Stanton for Harper. But why would any team want to part with franchise pieces for a different team’s franchise piece? Like I get that teams might want Harper, but they’re probably not going to get him without parting with a bonafide comparable perennial all star AND a top-5 or 10 prospect.

              Reply
  14. Philliesfan4life

    8 years ago

    So if they sign Heyward, will they even have enough money to give Harper an extension down the road? I dobut it

    Reply
  15. smelliott00

    8 years ago

    Completely agree. This tells me that the Nats don’t think they can resign Harper. There is basically no way that the Nats can afford three $200 million plus deals (Scherzer, Harper, and Heyward), especially the way Scherzer’s is set up (still paying him well after his 7 years are up).

    Reply
    • Philliesfan4life

      8 years ago

      If harper stays healthy, he could be the first 400 million dollar player

      Reply
      • coleham

        8 years ago

        Are the Nats going to go over to the Mint to print some new money?

        Reply
  16. brandoncraw4d

    8 years ago

    Why would the Nats want to sign Heyward to a decade long, big $ contract when their big name players are coming up for FA? They missed their window over the past few seasons and it’s time to start overhauling. An aging Dusty Baker isn’t going to turn this team around.

    Reply
  17. TradeAcuna

    8 years ago

    Do it! They will make the rest of the East happy!

    Reply
  18. weezlpuppy

    8 years ago

    Cubs will get him, makes the most sense.

    Reply
  19. A'sfaninUK

    8 years ago

    No, tradeTaylor! He deserves to be on a better team than the Nats!

    jk

    Reply
  20. Priggs89

    8 years ago

    Heyward and Harper in the same outfield? Yes please. Go get Trout to man centerfield while you’re at it.

    Reply
  21. mysourcestellme

    8 years ago

    $200mm for Heyward? What is Harper, Trout and Goldschmidt going to command on the open market when the time comes?

    Reply
    • ilikebaseball 2

      8 years ago

      Republic Credits, enough to buy Naboo

      Reply
      • justacubsfan

        8 years ago

        Republic credits are no good here! 🙂

        Reply
        • mattfancher86

          8 years ago

          Greatest….comment….ever!!!

          Reply
        • start_wearing_purple

          8 years ago

          Credits WILL do fine.

          Reply
          • No Soup For Yu!

            8 years ago

            What, you think you’re some kind of Jedi waving your hand around like that? I’m a baseball player. Mind tricks don’t work on me, only money.

            Reply
            • southi

              8 years ago

              Omg one of the best comment reply chains ever.

              Reply
    • bringoutthegimp

      8 years ago

      My guess Harper & Trout $450 million Paul $300 million. Those would be long term contracts. 10 years or more.

      Reply
      • slider32

        8 years ago

        Ditto that!

        Reply
      • Larry D.

        8 years ago

        Good call

        Reply
    • charles stevens

      8 years ago

      Probably just give them 49% ownership of the franchise.

      Reply
      • Out of place Met fan

        8 years ago

        Baseball prevents such inclusions in player contracts

        Reply
    • smelliott00

      8 years ago

      I’d be shocked if Goldy and Trout hit free agency. They should both get locked up by the Dbacks and Angels, respectively. Harper, on the other hand, I don’t think will accept an extension offer unless it’s crazy big. He seems like he may want to explore the biggest contract ever and will probably get it.

      Reply
    • smelliott00

      8 years ago

      I’d be shocked if Goldy and Trout hit free agency. They should both get locked up by the Dbacks and Angels, respectively. Harper, on the other hand, I don’t think will accept an extension offer unless it’s crazy big. He seems like he may want to explore the biggest contract ever and will probably get it

      Reply
    • A'sfaninUK

      8 years ago

      300M or even more, but who cares?

      Reply
  22. bringoutthegimp

    8 years ago

    This wouldn’t surprise me. I had a gut feeling that the Nats were going to go after Heyward hard. I for one would love it. They got to get someone in the 3rd spot to let #34 really shine.

    Reply
    • charles stevens

      8 years ago

      Seems to me you would want to stick a righty between them.

      Reply
    • megaj

      8 years ago

      Heyward would do better in the 2 or 5 spot.

      Reply
  23. tomahawk203

    8 years ago

    Congratulations to Heyward. Looks like he’s about to receive a well deserved pay day. I’d like to see him end up in Chicago. Just keep him out of Washington.

    Reply
    • timyanks

      8 years ago

      deserving? hardly

      Reply
      • A'sfaninUK

        8 years ago

        He’s elite in everything but fully unlocking his power potential, and he’s entering his prime years, when great players usually unlock their power potential.

        Reply
  24. metbest

    8 years ago

    The nats offseason moves always puzzle me. Sign scherzer when pitching wasn’t an issue and let their homegrown ace walk to the team they wooed scherzer away from. Then they trade escobar who okay got hurt a few times but was still a PIA to play against. Then they go after Heyward when they have harper for three more years, the caveman for two more and taylor for a boat load of year and taylor is a good outfielder and pesky hitter. I just don’t understand their front office. Go sign heyward you’ll just be chasing the mets again this year. though I expect it to be another season long battle.

    Reply
    • bringoutthegimp

      8 years ago

      Chasing the Mets LOL !

      Reply
      • metbest

        8 years ago

        Mets are the NL champs why would they be the ones doing the chasing they dont have anything to prove. But that’s fine you go get heyward and convince yourself that he will be the missing puzzle piece to somehow get the nats over that tricky hump they have year after year. Good luck to the nats with only scherzer and .260 batting avg $200 million center fielder they gonna need all the luck they can get. Poor Harper he really deserves better.

        Reply
  25. charles stevens

    8 years ago

    Oh man. 200 mil offer in hand? Thats going to be the worst mistake of someones career. This smells of an owner trying to make baseball decisions to sell tickets.

    Reply
  26. Larry D.

    8 years ago

    Please don’t be the Cubs that offered him $200m. They have done a pretty good job getting value players for less money this fall/winter. That kind of money would be better spent on a starter.

    Reply
    • ilikebaseball 2

      8 years ago

      Cubs outfield needs his defense. Paying 56m to a 35 year old Zorbist doesn’t seem like getting much value.

      Reply
      • megaj

        8 years ago

        Zobrist didn’t really cost that much because the Cubs traded Castro which was most of it.

        Reply
      • chesteraarthur

        8 years ago

        Then you should probably spend some time educating yourself about Zobrist and value.

        Reply
  27. drewm

    8 years ago

    Drinking the bitter tears of Cards fans who were hoping they’d lock him up for $150M. Reality is, he’s worth more.

    Reply
  28. Bkbacht

    8 years ago

    It really doesn’t matter where he goes. He alone is not going to win a World Series for any of the three teams. If he goes to the Nats, it’s just a joke. They’re going to have all of their money invested in 3 guys over the next 7-10 years. Good luck with that. I really see him doing the best with the Cubs or Cards tho the Cubs have a much better future ahead of them than the Cardinals.

    Reply
    • bighiggy

      8 years ago

      I agree. He’s a good player but that contract will hamper alot of teams from having the extra money to get the players that will be needed to win a championship. He alone wont put a team over the hump.

      Reply
    • ray_derek

      8 years ago

      I really don’t understand Washington’s logic behind this. Heyward fits well with STL and Chicago. Could really see him thrive in a lineup with Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber and now Zobrist…scary

      Reply
    • Priggs89

      8 years ago

      “tho the Cubs have a much better future ahead of them than the Cardinals.”

      It sure seems that way right now, but judging by their track records, I wouldn’t be too sure about that.

      Reply
    • chesteraarthur

      8 years ago

      Which one baseball player wins a world series for their team? Mike Trout is curious what he’s doing wrong.

      Reply
  29. 2v2hunters

    8 years ago

    Career .266 hitter who doesn’t hit for power goes for $200mm these days? I’m confused… even if he’s the best defensive player in the league.

    Reply
    • mookiessnarl

      8 years ago

      Yes because career batting average is the only thing teams look at when giving out contracts. Never mind that most of the seasons he hit for a low batting average were before he was 23, when most players are still in the minor leagues.

      Reply
  30. R.D.

    8 years ago

    Please not Washington
    -every Braves fan.

    Reply
  31. megaj

    8 years ago

    I think the Cubs have already improved enough to get further than they did last year without spending 200 million.. Zobrist practically cost nothing after the Castro trade and Lackey is a great deal for only two years. I think they should just trade Baez and a prospect for a pitcher from Cleveland like Carrasco.

    Reply
    • coleham

      8 years ago

      They will need Baez at second. I can’t see Zobrist making a whole season at second. Brendan Ryan won’t even make the roster.

      Reply
    • chesteraarthur

      8 years ago

      “and a prospect” – do you lack enough understanding of their system to name specific players, or do you just choose to make a stupid statement with no substance to it.

      Baez + “a prospect” is not even close to enough to land Carrasco. You’re looking at a package that is more like Soler + Baez +.

      Reply
      • Rick 18

        8 years ago

        You are correct in the value part, no question. But if we see a report that things are heating up between the Cubs and the Indians for Carrasco, I’ll tell you right now it’ll be on Baez or Soler and 1-2 prospects that are blocked to the big leagues.

        Reply
  32. harrykalasforever

    8 years ago

    I don’t get it. $200 million for this guy? Seriously??? Nobody else thinks that this is completely insane? It’s irresponsible to play a good player this much money. He isn’t special. This isn’t Griffey Jr. or Tony Gwynn. He’s not even Willie McGee! What the hell is wrong with these owners!?!!

    Reply
  33. bruinlife33

    8 years ago

    Jayson Werth 2.0

    Reply
  34. inkstainedscribe

    8 years ago

    I get the AAV, but what baffles me is the notion that you’d pay him $20MM + for 8-10 years and move him around the OF like a utility player. Even for a couple of seasons. Put him in RF, Harper in LF, and let Taylor and Werth handle CF (with the odd man “out” giving Harper and Heyward the occasional day off).

    Reply
    • megaj

      8 years ago

      He would fit much better in Chicago’s lineup and outfield, but I really hope they don’t spend this much to do it. As long as these teams will pay ridiculous sums of money to what used to be considered slightly above average players, then ticket prices will continue to skyrocket.. The only way to stop the madness is to stay home and watch games on tv.

      Reply
      • coleham

        8 years ago

        They are making where you can’t even take your family to a game anymore. When I was a kid I could walk into a Cubs game and sit in the bleachers for $7. Now those days are gone. My dad would just pick me up at school head to Wrigley on the El and might spend $20 for the whole day. I can’t do that with my kids as prices go up. Yet they still can’t win a series just a waste of money.

        Reply
        • cubsfan82

          8 years ago

          Blame the Fed

          Reply
        • braves25

          8 years ago

          Players salaries are not what drive ticket prices up. The owners have been driving ticket prices up way before salaries started sky rocketing. TV contracts is what is driving player salaries through the roof.

          Reply
      • chesteraarthur

        8 years ago

        Your ideas of how baseball and economics work are painfully lacking

        Reply
  35. kiddhoff

    8 years ago

    Braves could be a mystery team. Sign Heyward, trade for Frazier, sign a couple oldtimers (Buehrle,Lohse). Automatic 2016 contender.

    Reply
    • Ry.the.Stunner

      8 years ago

      Typically teams looking to compete next year don’t trade off one of their best pitchers in the offseason.

      Reply
      • kiddhoff

        8 years ago

        True, but there’s nothing typical about what the Braves mgmt has done the past year. And they got the mother load for Miller.

        Reply
    • megaj

      8 years ago

      Heyward and some old timers would not be enough. Why would the Braves try to get Heyward? They let him go when he was only making 8 million.

      Reply
      • megaj

        8 years ago

        Not to mention that the only position player on the entire Braves staff that anybody would want is Freeman, which is the only player they won’t trade.

        Reply
      • kiddhoff

        8 years ago

        They traded Heyward before he hit the market. They would’ve had to pay up anyway. And you’re telling me the Reds wouldn’t take some prospects for Frazier?

        Reply
        • megaj

          8 years ago

          The Miller deal was really good for the Braves to rebuild with good young talent, and I think that is the direction they will continue in. Maybe next in 2017 they start spending the bucks for help, but now they are planning for the future.

          Reply
          • kiddhoff

            8 years ago

            It’s all speculation. If the Braves were to sign Heyward for 9/$200m, some would consider that planning for the near future. He’s from the Atlanta area, and us a fan favorite there. I’m not a Braves fan or a Heyward fan, and I hope my Cards don’t pay that much for him. But Braves management has been unpredictable recently. And I think it’s a possibility

            Reply
            • HalosFan

              8 years ago

              No way is it a possibility that they go trade prospects for Frazier. That’s ridiculous. Heyward? Id say that’s 1 in 25 they get him. They are stock piling young talent for the future, they could care less about 2016 and I would bet that’d rather finish dead last to get a high draft pick to add to their system. Or hope that Arizona just keeps gift wrapping their top picks in idiotic trades.

              Reply
  36. Joe McMahon

    8 years ago

    Ok, this clearly needs to be said. Jason Heyward is not an average hitter. He is a great hitter. He put up a 121 wRC+ last year, significantly above average and has a 118 wRC+ for his career, also significantly above average. He’s not an elite hitter, but he is a well above average hitter. And funnily enough, when you combine great offense, with great baserunning and elite defense, you get an elite player. Yes, Jason Heyward is an elite player. When you put up a 121 wRC+, 7.0 baserunning value, with a 22.6 UZR (that’s a very high number), with 6.0 WAR as a 25 year old,you are elite. According to Fangraphs, Heyward’s season was worth $48M last year. Yes, that’s a very high number, and no he wasn’t worth that much, Fangraphs $$ values likely overvalue elite players, because the average dollar value per win probably decreases as the WAR gets higher. But was Heyward worth $25M last year? Yeah, $30M? Yeah. $35M? Yeah, probably. Now he won’tbe worth $30-35M every year, that would be crazy.But he’s likely to do it enough to be worth $25M annually, even if he has down years. And he’s also young enough where a 9-10 year deal wouldn’t be crazy. Therefore, a 10/220-240 contract for Heyward (or more) is not only reasonable, it has the potential to be one of the better values of the offseason, despite the fact that he doesn’t have the stats that traditional fans like to see.

    And no, citing the fact that he doesn’t have a lot of RBI’s is not a valid argument to these points. Heyward could have 15 RBI for the whole year and still be worth that contract.

    Reply
    • ray_derek

      8 years ago

      Great post. I love Heyward, he’ll be worth every penny. Although I do not believe Washing ton is a good fit. STL or Chicago

      Reply
    • cubsfan82

      8 years ago

      I’ll disregard that last paragraph because it is silly, but fully agree with the rest. I won’t use numbers to describe what I see in Heyward as a hitter. As a Cubs fan, I judge an opposing player’s quality and award my level of respect based on what happens to my stress level when the player comes to the plate in a key situation. I don’t care who the pitcher is, Heyward will make you pitch your a** off to get an out. And if there are fewer than 2 outs, it will almost invariably be a productive out. Never a wasted AB with this guy and he is a royal pain to deal with in any lineup. There are few other players in the NL who elicit this reaction from me as an opposing fan: Carpenter when he’s on, Votto all day every day, Posey, Harper, and McCutcheon.

      Reply
    • Triteon

      8 years ago

      Sir, you are in danger of being reasonable on the internet. (Nice job!)

      Reply
    • mookiessnarl

      8 years ago

      Yes this. Not sure why people don’t see the value of this type of player. If you do everything very well, but not at an elite level, then that makes you a very good player. There is not a single weakness to his game and that has a ton of value.

      Reply
  37. megaj

    8 years ago

    People are just going overboard on these modern statistics. Most are just hypothetical prediction models that are rarely that accurate for future seasons. I wonder how baseball survived for over a 100 years without WAR stats figuring into owner’s decisions? It’s pretty simple to figure out if someone is good defensively or offensively without reciting all the nonsense above. These stats you quote make good players look great. The truth is he doesn’t hit over .300, he doesn’t have that many home runs or RBIs, he is never going to steal 30 bases a year, and he doesn’t have an OBP over .400, but since he is slightly above average in every category it makes the WAR and every other advanced stat go up.

    Reply
    • Joe McMahon

      8 years ago

      Yes, the fact that people survived without it means we don’t need it. That’snot ridiculous logic at all. On a related note, how overrated is modern medicine? I mean, people survived for millennia without cancer treatments, who needs them?

      PSA: Just because people existed without improved things before, doesn’t mean improvements aren’t still good.

      Reply
      • megaj

        8 years ago

        That is a whole different argument. I could go on for hours how modern medicine is not a good thing at all, and that most holistic treatments are better but this is a baseball thread. I guess this is just oldschool vs. new school differing points of view.

        Reply
        • HalosFan

          8 years ago

          It’s not an opinion. It’s a fact modern analytics is has improved analysis of the game. Modern medicine isn’t a good thing? What?!? That is ludicrous.

          Reply
    • southi

      8 years ago

      You do realize don’t you that most businesses will ask someone to “show them the numbers” before making a big decision. It isn’t any different really in baseball.

      These numbers and “new fangled” statistical categories exists because someone was looking to put a number on things and compare different type players, playing in different ball parks and and against different teams. In my mind they aren’t perfect but they sure help quantify a lot of things. Whether you or me don’t like them has no bearing on the fact that they are being used more and more to make business decisions costing hundreds of millions of dollars.

      Oh and then there is Dave Stewart.

      Reply
    • chesteraarthur

      8 years ago

      ARRRR-BEEEE-EEYZZZZ!

      Reply
  38. HalosFan

    8 years ago

    Correct me if I’m wrong but the mystery team doesn’t become known till after the player has signed?

    Reply
  39. michaelw

    8 years ago

    I think if the Cubs don’t land him, they go with Gordon and then go for Cuteo, it be either Heyward or Gordon then a good pitcher for the Cubs to round out the Winter…One of those two will be the situation for the Cubs..

    Reply
    • ray_derek

      8 years ago

      I hate Cueto, hope the Cubs don’t sign him

      Reply
      • HalosFan

        8 years ago

        Hoyer said yesterday that he was pleased with the rotation going forward. I doubt another high priced free gent is in the mix. Trade? That’s realistic.

        Reply
  40. bringoutthegimp

    8 years ago

    Did Donald Trump write the article? Serious Threat? Must have been him!

    Reply
  41. haetor

    8 years ago

    Cards fan here. I like Heyward but that price is stupid. Holliday, Grich, Piscotty, Pham works just fine.

    Reply
    • link2217

      8 years ago

      Couldn’t agree more. After watching Heyward for a full season in stl last year he is a solid player but not worth near this money. He will work an ab and draw some walks but is just average with the bat and its Hard to sell me on defense alone when as a rf he is only involved in about 2 plays a game. The cardinals will be fine without him.

      Reply
  42. Cias

    8 years ago

    You guys have some crazy ideas lol

    Reply
  43. holecamels35

    8 years ago

    I’m sure someone will do it, but I don’t understand why you’d pay him enormous money based on outfield defense. How much can a corner outfielder’s defensive skill really do? Most teams want to generate ground balls anyways. His power is lacking but he could still develop. I think he’s a very good second or third piece for a team but not a 200M asset, Washington seems like they spend money out of boredom sometimes.

    Reply
  44. ray_derek

    8 years ago

    Washington will be the highest bidder, Heyward will have to choose what’s more important to him. If he has a 200 million offer, it’s got to. E the Nats

    Reply
  45. jd396

    8 years ago

    I’m glad people are getting away from error-counting to measure defense, but it still seems like people really don’t like when defensively preventing a run and offensively scoring a run are treated like the same thing. When a good hitter has a “meh” WAR or when a “meh” hitter has a good WAR people kind of freak out.

    Reply
  46. randygibbs

    8 years ago

    Hey Nationals you can’t buy a ring in MLB only at a jewelry store. How did that work for you last year?

    Reply
  47. WeggieJackson44

    8 years ago

    Anyone else reminded of the Red Sox Dec 2010 signing of Carl Crawford? Crawford was 2yrs older, but just came off a Gold Glove, hit for higher avg, stole more bases, and had more power. Luckily the Angels missed on that one!

    Reply
  48. cards1

    8 years ago

    Here is the issue I have with the new information that has come to light on Heyward not necessarily seeking a 10 yr deal but more so in the 7,8,9 yr. region.

    Forget about his skills, if you sign this guy to an 8 yr contract with AAV of upwards of 24 mil, you’re going to have problems. If they front load it, you’re going to pay him a lot of the contract for his “good” years but you have to expect him to ask for an opt out at around year 4. Say JHey produces well and by year 4 just as he’s starting to become affordable, he opts out. Now you’re on the hook for paying him all those dollars with the expectation that he won’t break the bank in his later years.

    Now consider a different scenario in which you sign him to a 9 yr. deal and Heyward struggles and he doesn’t opt out, now your stuck with an aging RFer who’s defense and speed is declining and the bat is about the same. Is 200+ over 9 yrs. really worth it in the grand scheme of things. Either way you’re handcuffed. You either are left with the bill or you are stuck with an aging OFer.

    I’d stay away if I were the Cards and consider short term deals with no opt outs. Much safer.

    Reply
    • alexvz3

      8 years ago

      You can also look at it (if there’s an opt-out clause) as if he does well in those first three or four years, you get him in his prime seasons at a reasonable rate. Then, you can let someone else overpay for him for the seasons when he begins to decline.

      Reply
    • A'sfaninUK

      8 years ago

      Why do the Cardinals have to be safe? They pretty much are always a top 5 farm system and have tons of money to spend. Even if Heyward flops they’ll probably make the postseason and win titles anyway, just like they do when they lose their best players all season…they are such a hate-able team if you aren’t a fan, haha

      Reply
  49. A'sfaninUK

    8 years ago

    Michael Taylor absolutely does not need more seasoning in the minors, that is an absolutely insane reasoning, that’s on Ozuna-level crazyness, only Taylor’s been nothing but a delight in the clubhouse and Ozuna was acting immature.

    If they get Heyward and send Taylor down, he will absolutely win his grievance. You cant “hide” players after theyve been established while you pay out veterans on the last year of their contract.

    Reply
  50. timyanks

    8 years ago

    i wish there were stats that would show how many games are won or lost by a player. heyward would not be very high on the list. noticed many games his stats were good and cardinals lost, bad stats, and they won.

    Reply
    • johnnyfang

      8 years ago

      There is. It’s called win-probability added (WPA). It is based on the leverage of the situation (i.e. how close the game is, whether there are men on base, etc.). You can find it at fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&…. Heyward was 26th in the majors in WPA.

      Reply
      • Cards Fan 2

        8 years ago

        +1 for the link. I think that may well be my new favorite stat

        Reply
  51. thebeaver13

    8 years ago

    I think it is safe to assume the Nationals stepped up with the $200MM offer. Keep in mind the tax requirements versus St Louis and Chicago. That alone requires a higher dollar ask. So I don’t think the Cards or Cubs have to go that high to land him. Being a Cards fan, I think the win would be a 7 year, $160MM deal with an opt out after her first four years. If it is more than that, Cards can walk and go sign Upton or Cespedes and maybe a SP. Piscotty moves to first and can platoon with Adams and float between RF and LF to spell Holliday and the new OF. Thats what this Couch GM would do. Which means nothing. 🙂

    Reply
  52. tedwilliams

    8 years ago

    I would imagine he got 8 years with an opt-out clause?

    Reply

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