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Latest On Aaron Judge

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7:32PM: Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke with reporters (including Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand) about Judge, saying that the Yankees had exchanged several offers with the outfielder’s camp, and Cashman had spoken with Judge’s agent earlier today. The club doesn’t have any deadline for Judge to make a decision. The Yankees haven’t gotten any word about whether or not they will get the opportunity to counter or match any final offer Judge might receive from any other team.  In another interview with YES Network’s Meredith Marakovits and Jack Curry (Twitter link), Cashman said the team didn’t have any plans to meet with Judge in person during the Winter Meetings.

3:49PM: There isn’t much doubt that Aaron Judge’s next contract will top the $300MM mark, though the exact distance over $300MM and the length of the deal are still unknown.  Recent reports have suggested that the Yankees offered Judge an eight-year pact worth roughly $300MM, and that a minimum of nine years will be required to sign the AL MVP.

That nine-year demand might already be a reality, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) hears some speculation from industry sources that Judge has a nine-year offer in hand.  The Yankees’ previous offer wasn’t said to be their final bid, so it could be that New York added an extra year to retain their longtime star.  Or, it could be that the Giants (another team known to be in hot pursuit of Judge) have floated a nine-year offer, or perhaps even an unknown team.

On the topic of the ever-popular mystery teams, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that other teams beyond the Yankees and Giants “remain on the periphery” of Judge’s market.  With the numbers this high, of course, only certain big-spending clubs are realistic candidates to sign Judge in the first place, unless a mid-payroll team decided to make an unexpected splurge.

The Red Sox are no strangers to big payrolls, and they have at least checked in with Judge’s representatives, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  As intriguing as it would be to see Judge switch sides in the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, the Sox are “not one of the most aggressive teams” in the Judge race, as Cotillo characterizes Boston’s interest more as “due diligence” rather than a true push to sign the slugger.

The Dodgers are the only other team publicly known to have some interest in Judge, though preferably on a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote over the weekend.  A nine-year asking price could put Los Angeles out of the running, but given the Dodgers’ financial resources, they can certainly afford a longer-term deal if they are determined to land Judge.  With Trea Turner now gone to the Phillies and Justin Verlander (a prime Dodgers target) signing with the Mets, however, it is worth wondering if the Dodgers might now more firmly pivot towards Judge.

Brewers Among Teams Showing Interest In Justin Turner

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Yesterday we learned that free agent Justin Turner had a final four teams he was considering for 2021. The Dodgers and Blue Jays have long been known as interested parties, but now we can add the Brewers as the third team looking to woo Turner, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Turner wants a four-year deal, but that seems unlikely for the 36-year-old. The Dodgers hope to bring him back for two, but if another team is willing to go to three years for the GEM Agency client, that could be enough to pry Turner from LA. Whether the Blue Jays, Brewers, or the final mystery team are willing to make that kind of commitment to Turner is TBD.

The Brewers are an interesting entrant into the Turner sweepstakes. They have about $25MM before hitting their luxury tax payroll from 2020, so there’s room for a splashy addition if the Brewers are going to maintain their payroll. That’s a big “if,” however. The Brewers have been largely inactive thus far, however, with their only Major League contract going to infielder Daniel Robertson, who figures to play a reserve role for Milwaukee.

The Brewers have a host of young, promising, but unproven infield contributors who could move around the diamond to accommodate Turner.  Keston Hiura demands a lineup spot, and he’ll probably play the keystone, while Luis Urias and Orlando Arcia are their other likely starters. Arcia has had more than enough time to establish himself, and outside of some postseason and big-game heroics, he hasn’t done enough to guarantee his starting spot. A career slash line of .244/.295/.366, with a roughly-average 20.1 percent strikeout rate, and below-average 6.6 percent walk rate definitely leaves room for improvement. Turner’s 130 wRC+, for instance, would give the Brewers’ lineup quite the boost from Arcia’s 71 wRC+ career mark.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Tomoyuki Sugano?

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Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window.  January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.

A move to North America is not guaranteed, however.  As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision.  As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.

Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number.  Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running.  The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract.  The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.

This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course.  Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020.  As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender.  Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.

The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman.  Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter.  Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.

The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano.  Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.

With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership.  Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)

Latest On Mike Clevinger

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AUG. 31: The Blue Jays “don’t seem to be heavily involved on Clevinger,” according to Heyman, who lists the Padres, Braves and perhaps the White Sox as teams that appear to be in the mix.

AUG. 30, 9:48PM: The Blue Jays also have interest in Clevinger, Heyman tweets, but it isn’t known if Toronto is the “mystery team.”

8:07PM: Speculation continues to swirl about a possible Mike Clevinger trade, with multiple reports surfacing earlier tonight that the Padres had seemingly moved into the driver’s seat for the Indians righty.  The most recent word, however, is that other teams may have pulled ahead of San Diego, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links) reports that the Tribe “have requested players’ physicals from at least two teams” but haven’t asked the Padres to submit such information. 

A mystery team has made a better offer for Clevinger than the Padres, Nightengale writes.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter links) reported earlier tonight that the Braves were still in the Clevinger sweepstakes even though the Padres were the “frontrunners” at the time, and two rival executives told Feinsand that Atlanta could very well be the team “making an aggressive play” to now top San Diego’s offer.  Top outfield prospect Drew Waters was reportedly part of the Indians’ trade ask from the Braves, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

The Padres don’t seem to be willing to move either Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links), which could be a roadblock in a potential Clevinger trade.  Also from Heyman, the Yankees don’t appear to be the mystery team in the Clevinger hunt, as there is “no belief anything’s close” between New York and Cleveland.

The White Sox and Dodgers were also rumored to be interested in Clevinger earlier today, and with this much buzz around the right-hander, one wonders how close Cleveland might get to someone meeting its reportedly “ridiculous” asking price in any Clevinger trade.

Latest On Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market

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There has been widespread interest in left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has become even more of a prized commodity since he is now the only starting pitcher remaining within the top 38 players on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.  The current field of suitors appears to consist of seven teams, as listed by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), give or take one unconfirmed team and, of course, the ever-popular “mystery team.”

Heyman’s list includes several teams who have been already linked to Ryu at earlier points this winter — the Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins.  The “mystery team” could be the Braves (who are known to some level of interest in Ryu, though perhaps only peripherally), Heyman guessed, though he doesn’t mention the Cardinals, who were said to be considering Ryu two weeks ago.  Since that report, however, St. Louis added another pitcher in Korean southpaw Kwang-Hyun Kim, who came at a much lower price tag than Ryu (though, obviously, without the MLB track record).  With Kim in the fold, it could be that the Cards feel their rotation mix is set, and Ryu is no longer a target.

The other teams mentioned in Ryu’s market are two new faces, as Heyman writes that the Padres and “possibly [the] Phillies” could have interest.  While the two clubs have yet to be connected to Ryu this offseason, it isn’t surprising that either San Diego or Philadelphia would be looking in, given how both teams have been looking to upgrade their respective rotations.

The Phils already made one big splash in signing Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract.  However, Wheeler is only one addition to a pitching staff that generated 7.6 total fWAR (23rd in the majors) in 2019.  Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a good top-of-the-rotation pairing, though the remaining options of Jake Arrieta and two of the Zach Eflin/Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta trio aren’t terribly inspiring, given how these arms all struggled last season.  Ryu would be a nice addition to any staff, but he would especially help the Phillies keep pace with the other loaded rotations in the NL East.

Since the Phillies already have a projected payroll (just under $205.4MM, as per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that sits just barely under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, however, it remains to be seen if the club is willing to surpass the threshold for another star player like Ryu.  Philadelphia was reportedly looking to be more “opportunistic” with their future signings to avoid the tax, though the team could take the one-year hit while staying in the first level of tax penalties, which is a CBT number of less than $228MM.  Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and David Robertson all come off the books after the 2020 season, so the Phillies could duck back under the tax threshold after just one year.

The CBT isn’t a concern for the Padres, though payroll itself is an issue, as the club has reportedly been trying to deal Wil Myers’ contract for weeks.  Despite having some level of financial limitation in place, San Diego has been looking for frontline pitching for over a year, mostly on the trade front given how the Padres have so many strong minor leaguers to offer as trade chips.  The Padres have also explored free agent signings, and Ryu is clearly a known quantity after facing him for so many years in a Dodgers uniform.  Adding an experienced veteran like Ryu to the young staff could make the Padres more open to move other younger arms (if not the trio of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, or Luis Patino) as part of future trades to bring salary relief, perhaps attached to Myers as sweeteners in a deal.

Gerrit Cole Rumors: 12/10/19

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Where’s Gerrit Cole going to land? That’s what everyone wants to know. We’ve got a poll going this morning, but otherwise we’re eagerly awaiting the day’s news on the top free agent.

We’ll track the chatter here …

  • The Cole sweepstakes is closing in on an ending, reports Heyman, who adds it would take “a major upset” for him to sign with someone other than the Yankees, Angels or Dodgers.

Earlier Reports

  • There is “serious and intense” bidding going on for Cole, who looks more and more likely to reach an agreement at the Winter Meetings, Heyman tweets. It’s “likely” the Astros and the Giants are the mystery clubs in the Cole derby, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, though the sources he has spoken with have cast on doubt on the hurler ending up with either team. That seemingly leaves the Yankees, Angels and Dodgers to fight it out for Cole.
  • The Astros may be one of the mystery teams, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who writes that they’re considering making a late charge to re-sign Cole. He was, of course, an enormously important part of the Astros’ pitching staff from 2018-19, and owner Jim Crane said last month the team would at least make an effort to keep him. Keeping Cole would likely at least push the Astros over the second level of the luxury tax ($228MM), as Sherman notes, but the reigning AL champions do have some holes in their rotation with him and Wade Miley as free agents. Perhaps a desire to keep Cole, AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke together atop the Astros’ staff will drown out any tax concerns for Crane.
  • Agent Scott Boras confirmed recent reports that indicate a deal could come together quickly. He told reporters gathered for his annual media scrum that a decision may come “in the short term,” as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (Twitter links). Boras also says there are two mystery teams involved in Cole’s market, though it’s not evident just what constitutes a mystery team from his perspective.
  • Cole’s major pursuers are known (Angels, Yankees, Dodgers), along with a few lurkers (Rangers, Phillies). But there’s also a mystery team involved, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Heyman himself casts doubt upon the legitimacy of this unidentified organization, noting that it is difficult to envision a new entrant to the market vaulting past the existing bidders. Indeed, it is quite difficult to peg a serious bidder among the remaining teams around the league. There are certainly other contenders that would love to add Cole, but in every case there’s reason to question the plausibility. That said, there have been surprises in the past and nothing can be ruled out entirely until there’s a team announcement on a signing.
  • Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes (via Twitter) that he has been given reason to believe that the Giants would represent “a desirable destination” from Cole’s perspective. But he says he is not aware whether the team is involved and cautions that he has no reason to believe the San Francisco organization is a serious possible landing spot for the right-hander.

Mets Interested In Joe Panik

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FRIDAY: There’s “a strong chance” Panik will sign with the Mets when he clears waivers, Martino writes.

THURSDAY: The Mets have interest in Giants second baseman Joe Panik, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports.  Panik was designated for assignment Tuesday and placed on release waivers yesterday, and he’ll officially enter into free agency at noon CT on Friday if he isn’t claimed by another team in the interim.

The Mets’ interest may hinge on whether or not Panik is actually on the open market.  If Panik were to sign as a free agent, New York would only be responsible for paying him a prorated MLB minimum salary for the rest of the season (roughly $164K) and the Giants would have to cover the $956K still owed to Panik for the remainder of the one-year, $3.8MM contract he signed last offseason.  If the Mets were to just claim Panik off waivers, they’d have to pay him the entire $1.12MM in remaining salary themselves.

As recently noted by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets are quite close to the luxury tax threshold of $206MM, as Roster Resource estimates New York’s luxury tax number at just under $203.38MM, counting the newly-signed Brad Brach’s minimum salary.  Since the team is loath to make any tax payments and player movement is more difficult now that the trade deadline has passed, the Mets are targeting players like Panik or Brach, who can potentially contribute while their former teams foot the bulk of the bill.  MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that at least one other team besides the Mets has interest in Panik, though it isn’t known if this mystery team is willing to make a claim for Panik, or if they are also waiting for Panik to hit free agency.

Panik would provide New York with a short-term replacement for Robinson Cano at second base while Cano is on the injured list, though it’s a fair question to wonder how much Panik can produce in the wake of his recent performance.  Aside from an All-Star season in 2015, Panik has been a below-average hitter for the rest of his career, including hitting only .245/.308/.325 over 780 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 campaign.  As maligned as Cano’s 2019 season has been, Panik has actually been worse — Cano’s 0.4 fWAR is superior to Panik’s sub-replacement level -0.2 fWAR.

Still, at a minimum price, there’s little harm for the Mets in taking a flier on Panik if nothing else than an extra body in their infield mix.  Panik would also add another left-handed bat to a largely right-handed Mets lineup, and his presence at second base would allow Jeff McNeil to remain largely in the outfield.

Reds Were Runners-Up For Albert Pujols In 2011-12 Offseason

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The Angels are making a rare interleague visit to St. Louis this weekend, marking Albert Pujols’ first on-field visit back to his former city since he left the Cardinals following the 2011 season.  He could have been a much more frequent visitor to Busch Stadium, however, if he had remained within the NL Central, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Reds were the proverbial mystery team that came closest to keeping Pujols away from the Angels in free agency.

Cincinnati offered Pujols a ten-year, $225MM offer, which fell just short of the ten-year, $240MM contract Pujols ultimately accepted from the Angels.  The Marlins actually offered more money than either the Angels or Reds, though Pujols turned down Miami’s ten-year, $275MM offer out of concerns that the contract didn’t contain a no-trade clause, and as Nightengale puts it, “Pujols [was] fearful of the Marlins being the Marlins.”

Walt Jocketty was the Reds’ general manager at the time, and had a long relationship with Pujols due to Jocketty’s time as the Cardinals’ GM from 1994 to 2007.  “We thought we were going to get him,” Jockey told Nightengale.  “We thought he would certainly give our organization a lift with his presence, on and off the field.”

After suffering through nine consecutive losing seasons from 2001-2009, the Reds won the NL Central in 2010 but were then unceremoniously swept out of the NLDS by the Phillies (a series that saw the Reds become just the second team to be no-hit in a postseason game, after Roy Halladay shut them down in Game One).  That taste of the postseason gave way to a disappointing 79-83 record in 2011, which led to an aggressive offseason for Jocketty’s front office.  Cincinnati added Mat Latos and Sean Marshall that winter, and indeed went on to regain the NL Central crown in 2012 and then reached the playoffs again as a wild card team in 2013.

Needless to say, adding Pujols would have been by far the biggest possible transaction for the Reds, and the signing would’ve had an incredible ripple effect on recent baseball history.  The player who would’ve been most notably impacted, of course, is Joey Votto.  Aside from six games as a left fielder in his rookie year, Votto has never played anywhere besides first base and (in interleague games) DH in the majors, and a position change would’ve seemingly been unlikely.  While Pujols had played a handful of games at third base for St. Louis in 2011, that marked his first action at the hot corner since 2002, so he wasn’t going to be moved away from first base.

The most plausible scenario of a Pujols signing is simply that Votto would have become an enormous trade chip for the Reds.  Votto had already established himself as a star, and since he wouldn’t have become a free agent until after the 2013 season, the Reds could have netted a hefty return for his services.

As things turned out, the Reds ended up spending their exact planned investment on Pujols into a new extension for Votto, inking him to a ten-year, $225MM deal covering the 2014-2023 seasons (after Votto’s original three-year deal with Cincinnati was up).  This wasn’t the only money the Reds splashed around that spring, as they also extended Brandon Phillips on a six-year, $72.5MM contract.

It’s hard to argue that keeping Votto over Pujols was a bad move for Cincinnati, as Votto has decidedly outhit Pujols over the last nine seasons.  There’s even some question as to whether Pujols could have even remained on the field if he had stayed in the National League, as the slugger said his decision to join the Angels “worked out perfect for me….With all of the injuries and everything that happened to me, it was the best-case scenario for me playing in the American League with a DH. It hasn’t been the best years of my career, but I’m still producing.”

Still, it’s worth at least guessing at how a Pujols-in-Cincinnati scenario could have developed.  For one, the Reds would’ve had Pujols off their books following the 2021 season, whereas they’re still committed to Votto through 2023 (and Votto’s power numbers have dropped precipitously over the last two seasons).  In terms of shorter-term results, who knows if the combination of Pujols and whatever pieces the Reds could have obtained in a hypothetical Votto trade could have put the Reds over the top in 2012 or 2013, though Pujols missed a big chunk of the 2013 season once his foot problems began to worsen.

Of course, who knows — maybe the Pujols-led Reds would’ve lost the 2012 or 2013 World Series to whichever team Votto ended up joining.  His availability that winter creates a whole new set of alternate realities, as one can not only look back at the 2011-12 free agent market for teams in need of first basemen, but it’s quite possible that teams without a defined need at first might have changed their plans if Votto was on the table (in the same way that the Reds weren’t seen a suitor at all for Pujols).

Pujols signed with the Angels in early December, so if he signs with the Reds in this fantasy scenario, that gives Cincinnati much of the offseason to market their younger first baseman.  Maybe it’s Votto who ends up in an Angels uniform after the Halos missed out on their top free agent choice.  The 2011-12 offseason saw the Marlins splurge on Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell in free agency, so maybe they could’ve decided to augment those free agents with a first baseman in a Votto trade?  If Votto is still a Red in late January 2012 when Victor Martinez tears his ACL, would the Tigers have spoken to the Reds about Votto rather than sign Prince Fielder?  The possibilities are endless.

Latest On Market For Bryce Harper

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The slow drip of news regarding Bryce Harper (and fellow free agent star Manny Machado) has formed a tower of uncertainty that looms over the hot stove market — indeed, the game as a whole. At this point, it’s anyone’s guess when, where, and for how much Harper will sign. As curious as the still-ongoing free agency of these players is the dearth of developments hitting the news wire and the evident lack of widespread interest.

Under these circumstances, it’s reasonably notable to learn that “at least 8 teams are still checking in on Harper,” according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). While Heyman suggests that some of those clubs do not have much interest in a long-term arrangement, it stands to reason that Harper and agent Scott Boras would welcome any bidders to help boost their bargaining power.

Despite a limited cast of publicly known suitors, it has always seemed logical that additional teams would look into a Harper deal. With at least one mystery team chasing Machado, we’ve already seen that concept introduced, but it hasn’t been as evident in Harper’s case.

So, what teams might be in the picture that weren’t previously known? That’s hard to say. The Padres have entered the mix, joining the Phillies, White Sox, and Nationals as known suitors. Beyond that, though, there’s no real indication. Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets, in fact, that he has had no success at identifying dark horse participants in the Harper derby.

You’re free to speculate in the comments, of course, but the fact is that any number of organizations could at least be kicking around the edges of Harper’s market. With as many as four mystery clubs evidently involved to some degree, it’s all but impossible to assess the lay of the land — let alone to foresee just how Harper’s time on the open market will ultimately draw to a close.

Trying To Identify “Mystery Teams” For Manny Machado

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The apparent staring contest between Manny Machado, the White Sox and the Phillies doesn’t seem to have an end in sight, and the saga will surely drag on even longer if reports of unidentified suitors prove true. With the identities of said teams (assuming for a moment that they do indeed exist) yet unknown — it’s perhaps worthwhile to at least take a high-level pass throughout the league to see just who could plausibly emerge as a surprise dark-horse in the Machado auction.

It seems safe to eliminate the league’s perennial lowest spenders. While the Rays have an atypical amount of flexibility even after signing Charlie Morton, it’s impossible to imagine a team with this payroll history sustaining even a $25MM annual salary — let alone a salary of $30MM or more. Similarly, the Athletics figure to be priced out of the Machado market, as do the Pirates and the Marlins (the latter of which, once again, is rebuilding anyway). The Reds are already projected to set a new franchise-record payroll in 2019, and adding Machado when they already have strong infield options isn’t all that plausible.

Great as Machado is, there are also some clubs who simply don’t have space in their infield for him. The Astros could afford to add Machado to their ranks, for instance, but Houston wouldn’t displace any of Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve to accommodate Machado. The Nationals have Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and newly signed Brian Dozier comprising their non-first-base infield slots. I wouldn’t characterize the group of Josh Donaldson, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo as quite as strong an infield mix, but it’s fair to say that the Braves probably don’t have space for yet another left-side infielder, barring a trade. Machado would also take Atlanta’s payroll to record heights.

Looking further, it’s unlikely that a team in the early stages of a pure rebuild is going to sign Machado the type of contract he’s seeking. The Royals are trying to pare back payroll, and the Tigers have yet to signal that they’re ready to emerge from their own restructuring. The Orioles aren’t going to bring him back into the mix on the heels of selling off the vast majority of their appealing veteran assets last summer. If it turns out that the Mariners wanted to clear money for Machado and/or Bryce Harper all along this winter, well then kudos to Jerry Dipoto on the most entertaining offseason in MLB history. But, since we’re trying to be rational, it seems like a lock that Machado doesn’t align with Seattle’s “re-imagining” movement.

Several mid-market teams are said to be facing payroll constraints that’ll probably keep them out of the Machado market. The Indians have been trying to shed payroll for much of the winter, and the Diamondbacks are currently being weighed down by huge commitments to Zack Greinke and Yasmany Tomas, the latter of whom is no longer even on the roster. The Rockies’ projected payroll already checks in north of $150MM, making a deal tough to envision. And if they’re going to give this type of annual salary to anyone, they’d probably prefer to offer it to Nolan Arenado, anyhow.

There are also several teams who typically spend heavily but are again refraining from doing so. The Dodgers don’t really have a need on the left side of the infield, but they could conceivably move Justin Turner or perhaps even Corey Seager to second base if it meant opening the hot corner for a player of Machado’s caliber, but there have at least been some reports that L.A. is vying to stay below the luxury tax line, and they’ve not spent like a big-market club to date. The Cubs could bid farewell to Addison Russell in some capacity and install Machado at shortstop, but persistent reports out of Chicago suggest their budget isn’t even flexible enough to bolster the relief corps. The Giants seem likelier to rebuild than to add a free agent of this magnitude, and the Rangers have been zeroed in on smaller-scale additions as they embark on their own soft reset. The Blue Jays are no strangers to large payrolls ($160MM+ in each of the past two seasons) but have made only marginal additions as they face the reality of a top-heavy division and the disbanding of the core that recently carried them to the ALCS.

The Red Sox arguably don’t have a dire need for Machado, though they could likely find a way to fit him into the mix. However, they’re just a few million shy of the top luxury bracket, and some reports have implied that an unwillingness to top that threshold is preventing them from even adding a reliever to the ’pen. They’re picking an odd time to draw a line in the sand, but Machado never seemed all that likely a target anyhow. Their chief rival, the Yankees, made (and very arguably still makes) sense on paper, but it doesn’t seem like they’ll outbid the field to further muddle an already crowded infield picture.

Beyond this grouping, of course, we know that both the White Sox and Phillies are legitimate Machado suitors who needn’t be explored as we try to pin down any potential mystery clubs. All of that said, there are still six clubs that strike me as reasonable guesses when trying to pin down potential Machado mystery clubs. Here’s a look at the remaining teams, and how/why they could conceivably add Machado to the mix (listed alphabetically):

  • Angels: The Halos have larger priorities — namely, trying to extend Mike Trout — but it wouldn’t be that hard to fit Machado into the mix. Zack Cozart could be slotted in at second base to make room for Machado at third base. Recent comments from GM Billy Eppler have suggested that the Angels’ spending is likely near its max following the addition of Cody Allen, but they only have Trout under control for another two seasons. There’s every reason to try to maximize the chance of winning immediately, and the Albert Pujols albatross will be off the books after the 2021 season. If the Halos somehow find a way to extend Trout, they’d only be on the hook for all three mega-salaries for one season (2021).
  • Brewers: Milwaukee is already in record payroll territory, but Ryan Braun is a free agent after the 2020 season and they’ve watched the division-rival Cubs largely sit this offseason out. With a clear infield need, the Brewers could theoretically add Machado, slide Travis Shaw over to second base and boast an exceptionally deep lineup. Milwaukee has just $48MM in guaranteed money on the 2020 payroll and $35.5MM in 2021. There’s likely some bad blood after October’s Jesus Aguilar incident — Christian Yelich made his feelings toward Machado known after that game — but presumably the hatchet could be buried if Machado were suddenly helping the Brewers win an extra five-plus games per year for the foreseeable future.
  • Cardinals: President of baseball ops John Mozeliak certainly didn’t sound like someone who was planning on a big free-agent splash over the weekend, but the Cards were prioritizing corner-infield bats earlier this winter prior to acquiring Paul Goldschmidt and could still fit Machado into the fold. Doing so would likely mean sliding either Paul DeJong or Matt Carpenter to second base for a season — the latter of which is probably a particularly unpalatable defensive alignment. But the St. Louis lineup would be exceptionally deep. As mentioned above with regard to the Rockies and Arenado, perhaps the Cardinals would simply prefer to give Goldschmidt a $30MM+ annual salary on an extension if they have the resources available, but Machado is a half decade younger.
  • Mets: The Mets’ infield is overcrowded as is — so much so that Jeff McNeil is likely to play in the outfield next season — so they’d have to make a move in order to fit Machado into the mix. But new GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been vocal about his win-now attitude, and shipping Todd Frazier off in order to open regular time for Machado at the hot corner isn’t outlandish. What could be outlandish would be the Wilpon family green-lighting a payroll north of $160MM, but even with all the moves they’ve made, it’s not that hard to see an on-paper scenario where Machado fits into the mix.
  • Padres: San Diego’s hopeful core is quite young, which presents them with the potential to carry a few notable veteran long-term contracts. Last offseason’s Eric Hosmer deal already looks regrettable, but the Padres did front-load the deal, so their annual commitment to Hosmer drops to $13MM beginning in 2023. The Padres project at a payroll just south of $84MM right now and have about $64MM on the books next season. The Padres haven’t historically been big spenders in the past, but the current ownership group did authorize a $108MM Opening Day payroll back in 2015. The Padres are known to be looking for a third baseman, and Machado would give them a long-term answer.
  • Twins: The Twins are the only team in baseball that doesn’t have a single dollar committed to any player in 2020. With a completely blank payroll slate, they’d have little problem fitting a major salary onto the long-term books. Looking at the 2019 roster, the infield appears full at first glance, but Machado is the type of player for whom a team should be willing to shuffle the deck. Miguel Sano could slide over to first base, pushing C.J. Cron to the bench role that Tyler Austin currently occupies. A $4.8MM bench bat would be an overpay for a team like the Twins, and owner Jim Pohlad would need to approve a record payroll by as much as $10MM for the upcoming season. That, however, would be a one-year expenditure before payroll naturally regressed. Meanwhile, the Indians aren’t improving, the Tigers and Royals aren’t threats to contend, and if any club should have an interest in keeping Machado away from the ChiSox, one would imagine it’d be a division rival.
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