The Nationals are known to be eyeing second base upgrades, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears that they’re currently discussing a potential Brandon Phillips trade with the Reds. As a player with 10+ years of Major League service time and five straight with his most recent club, Phillips has the ability to veto any trade, so he would need to approve of the deal. Cincinnati would receive prospects in the deal that is currently being discussed, sources tell Rosenthal.
Phillips, 34, had a strong season with the Reds in 2015, hitting .294/.328/.395 with a dozen homers and 23 stolen bases. The 23 steals were his highest single-season total since 2009, and Phillips’ 10.9 percent strikeout rate was easily the lowest of his career. Additionally, he continued to post strong defensive marks (+2.0 UZR, +5 DRS) in spite of his relatively advanced age.
Of course, the Nationals already have a quality defensive option at second base: Danny Espinosa. The Nats, though, reportedly would like to add a left-handed bat to complement the switch-hitting Espinosa at second base, given his history of troubles against right-handed pitching. Phillips, obviously, doesn’t meet that criteria, but he could provide an everyday option instead, freeing up Espinosa for a utility role and allowing him to start the season at shortstop while prospect Trea Turner gets some additional development time at the Triple-A level.
Phillips has a reasonable $27MM owed to him in total over the next two seasons ($13MM in 2016 and $14MM in 2017), so the Nats certainly have the financial means to add him to the fold, assuming he signs off on a potential trade. There are certainly reasons to believe that Phillips would be open to the idea; the Nationals are assuredly a better bet to contend in 2016 than the rebuilding Reds, and a trade would reunite Phillips with recently hired manager Dusty Baker — his skipper with the Reds from 2008-13.
From the Reds’ point of view, the trade would clear playing time for promising young infielder Eugenio Suarez, who impressed while filling in for the injured Zack Cozart over the final few months of the season. Cozart, though, will be healthy in 2016, leaving Suarez without a regular playing spot as things currently stand in Cincinnati.
I would assume that he would be almost 100% free if a trade were completed. Or the Reds would be adding significant cash. Because as it stands, Phillips has almost no surplus value. He’s making $13.5M annually for the rest of his contract and will probably be worth around that or less.
The value he provides is the need to only commit for two years rather than the 3-4 that Murphy and Kendrick will likely demand. And the fact that he won’t cost the draft pick that those two will cost. And that draft pick cost is relatively higher for potentially 2nd base needy teams that haven’t already sacrificed picks for free agents such as the Nationals, Angels, and White Sox. Phillips could also easily provide excess value in the conventional way you’re saying he won’t, seeing as he did this year. Note that this post/article calls his contract reasonable rather than bad. No it’s not a huge bargain but it has value with the year he just had, his track record, and the market dynamics.
There’s value here:
Jason Heyward 2015: .293/.359/.439 23 SB (26 attempts) 13 HR-
Brandon Phillips 2015: .294/.328/.395 23 SB (26 attempts) 12 HR-
Heyward is a better defender but BP plays a very solid 2b as well. Heyward is clearly the better player but when their are some similarities there and when you take into account the contracts, you see why the Nats may be interested. I think people will be surprised when the Reds actually get a return for BP.
Phillips put up a wRC+ of 26 points lower. Phillips is still not worth 13 million, maybe if Reds pick up like 8 million of the tab they can get some mid tier guys.
If 1 WAR is ~ 7 M$, then Phillips is worth his contract, probably worth more than his contract. The limited yearly investment over FA choices is a plus. He’s a league average hitter and a plus defender.
But you are right that he’s not worth his contract and prospects. The Reds should have to eat some salary to get a solid return.
Well, if you assume that he puts up another season like 2015, he might be about worth his contract. Of course, he turns 35 in June and 2015 was his best season since 2012 – there’s a reason that Steamer projects him at 1.6 WAR.
Steamer seems to believe he’s going to be even worse than he was in 2014 – when he was hurt. I don’t buy it.
There’s never been any evidence that suggests that any baseball executive uses dollars per WAR. If Philips was worth his contract, he’d have been traded ages ago.
No. Reds don’t have to eat any of Phillips’ salary. All will be square if they take on this fiery closer the Nats have who has lots of experience in big games and only one year left in his contract. *grin*
As a Reds fan the one trade that I’m least looking forward to is that of Phillips. He’s a great personality for the city of Cincinnati, always great with the fans, a great, consistent bat and legendary defense in the mid field that IMO makes him this generations Ozzie Smith. Phillips earned every dollar of his current contract and there’s no reason to pretend that any other team would be doing the Reds a favor by taking Phillips off of their hands.
If the Nationals want a left-handed bat to complement Espinosa, they should look elsewhere because Brandon Phillips bats right-handed.
Former Expo finally going home!
Was he part of the Colon trade?
Yes
i dont get it… escobar was better than him last year, cost less, yet they traded him away for a chance to trade for this guy?
Escobar by both UZR and DRS has significantly declined defensively to the point where he is a terrible defender, last year he put up a -11 DRS and -9.8 UZR/150 at 3B, in 2014 he put up -26 UZR/150 and -24 DRS at SS.
Even with Phillips 96 wRC+ last year and Escobar’s 120 wRC+ Phillips was worth .5 win more thanks to Escobars awful defense and baserunning (-6.4 value). I bet the gap widens this year as there is no reason to think Escobar can repeat his 2015 babip inflated value with the bat.
All this being said I’m not sure I buy that Turner isn’t ready, maybe they want to manipulate his service time tho.
Turner’s already got 45 days of service, they’d have to leave him down for 2 months just to keep him an extra year. Nearly 4 months to ensure he doesn’t qualify as a future super 2 player. That might make sense if it was a team not interested in competing next year.
Unless the Reds are offering to eat a lot of money I see no reason for the Nationals to keep Turner down.
The Reds would have to eat most of his salary to get a prospect of any kind. probably similar to the way Cleveland paid all of Asdrubal Cabrera’s salary to get Zach Walters from the Nats. I get the sense that the Nats are ready for Turner to play every day since they didn’t have him play winter ball.
They could be called the Washington Personalities if they acquire him. Can’t imagine what a clubhouse would be like with Phillips, Harper and Papelbon. Imagine if Escobar was still there!
lol santana 17, can you read? brandon phillips hits righties and lefties, espinoza only hits righties and can’t hold brandon’s jock as a defender.
if, and a big if right now, brandon would waive his 10 and 5 rights, nats have just added one of the best second basemen of all time to their roster. i think he only waives for 2 reasons (because he loves cincy and the fans love him-)-1- he wants to win a world series and the reds are tanking the next few years, and 2-dusty baker is a player’s coach that brandon will trust.
Spoken like a fan that hasn’t seen Espinosa play 2b very much. At this stage of both of their careers Espinosa is a better defender than Phillips (being 10 years younger helps a lot) – and it’s not particularly close. For example, by DRS Phillips was a respectable +5 at 2b last year. Espinosa? +10. By UZR/150 Phillips was rated +2.1. Espinosa? +18.4.
youtu.be/oWi5ssGjmgM
I mean have you seen Phillips play? I’ll fully admit I have never seen Espinosa play; however, some of the plays he makes are just beautiful to watch. I’m still mad to this day the Indians gave up on him.
Huh? Espinosa is generally regarded as a fantastic defender.
Ironic that you call out a guy for not reading, when it says Epinosa has a history of struggling against righties and you said “espinoza only hits righties”.
you guys are missing the boat on brandon phillips! dat dude is the best 2nd basemen the nats will see. cincy fans love him and he loves’em back but he might waive his rights for dusty and for a chance at world series. reds are tanking the next couple years to reload…..
oh, and btw, he doesn’t need to platoon. professional hitter who can still pick it with anyone in the game
Why arent the Angels in on this? Trade for Philips. Sign Kim, Look for a value signing in one of the places of need (Corner OF or SP). Dont over extend financially so Arte can be all smiles, and compete for the big pieces in the 2018 market with 3 years of the best player on earth left on payroll, and a lot of the stinky assets off.
Its possible (just a theory, probably wrong) that the Angels called and asked and Phillips said he would veto any trade to the Angels. I’m sure some teams have called about him and instead of getting into serious discussions right away, the Reds might’ve asked him if he would play there and if he said no, then obviously ongoing discussions would be useless.
I just hope Suarez gets a chance, as a former Tigers Prospect he filled in real nice for the hole Cozart left. He deserves some playing time and 2b could be an option
I liked him myself too. Hopefully he can get his defense together. He made a good number of errors if I remember correctly.
If he doesn’t do that I’d bet they transfer him to another position. I’m sure the Reds like his bat. Kid can hit pretty well. That’s for sure.
As a braves fan I couldn’t like this trade any greater than I already do. Thumbs up Rizzo
Given the expense of Phillips, the only way I’d include even a marginally significant prospect on the Nats’ side is if the Reds either cough up some money or take Papelbon in an exchange of bad deals. The Reds are not on Papelbon’s no-trade list.
I don’t even have words for this scenario. There is a higher chance of Babe Ruth playing for the Reds this year than Papelbon.
ask dusty baker who he thinks is the better second baseman: phillips or espinoza? dusty knows brandon’s worth
Braces could do a deal with the Reds by sending Nick Markakis 3/32.5 and Kolby Allard MLB#88, LHP to Cincinnati for Brandon Phillips 2/27 and Tyler Stephenson MLB#93, C.
Reds Pick up a solid hitting right fielder who will play well in their park plus the Braves Number 1 draft pick from 2015. The reds open a place for Suarez or Cosart to play second. The Braves get a second baseman for two years while Albies develops in minors albeit paying $6million additional in 2016/2017. The Braves get a catching prospect on nearly the same level as Allard from the same 2015 Draft.
Reds are not going to give up prospects… they are rebuilding. Markakis makes zero sense for the Reds.
LOL at that awful trade. The Reds are rebuilding. They don’t want an overpaid guy like Markakis and a worse prospect for their #1 pick from last year and a good second baseman. If he goes somewhere, it’s for salary relief + maybe a fringe prospect.
Why would the Reds have to kick in a prospect in that deal? They would paying an extra $5.5 million. It’s not a horrible deal without Stephenson attached though, although it’s probably not the best offer they will get either.
The extra 5.5 would be for an extra year of a premium outfielder with a WAR last year of 1.6; thus they would be netting $7.3 Million. The tow prospects are relatively even, Allard is higher ranked. So, why would the Braves do it? The answer is they need to get a catcher with potential to be ready in 2018 in case Herbert craps out. The Braves can spare an outfielder and a LH hitter. The Reds can spare an infielder and a RH hitter. The Reds also would be interested in a highly coveted LH pitcher ranked in MLBs top 100 prospects. Can’t you see, can’t you see, can’t you see; without help from me.
Terrible idea no way we send allard in a deal right now there is just no way that’s a terrible trade idea
I wonder how much influence Baker had on the Nats looking at Phillips. Smart move for the Nats to ask Dusty what active players he knows that could help the team.
I guess if most you guys that think Brandon is just ok at second, you’ve never seen him play. Find some reds games and watch the master play defense. He is the best 2nd baseman in baseball. Hands down.
Brandon Phillips is a class act- always gives a professional at bat. He is hands down the best defensive 2nd baseman I’ve ever seen. His instincts are like none I’ve seen. If you haven’t watched him on a regular basis then you are missing one heck of a player. There’s people I would pay to watch him at work- he’s one of them. I can’t say that about many 2nd baseman.. He was and still is the 2nd Base version of the wizard of Oz…I don’t care what numbers you pull up. What the endless YouTube highlights.