Francisco Liriano embodies the rising trend of pitchers throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone than ever, writes Fangraphs’ August Fagerstrom. In 2014-15, Liriano recorded to two lowest single-season zone percentage marks (the number of pitches thrown in the designated strike zone) since the stat began being tracked. However, he also coerced opposing hitters into chasing more than a third of his out-of-zone pitches, yielding high quality results in his third year with the Pirates. As Fagerstrom notes, though, the decrease of pitches in the strike zone is not confined to Liriano’s left arm but is rather a league-wide phenomenon. And, despite the rapidly decreasing number of pitches thrown in the zone, hitters are failing to adjust and continuing to chase. While it’s not the case with Liriano specifically, Fagerstrom hypothesizes that the record levels of velocity throughout the game mean hitters must be more geared up for velocity than ever before, thereby limiting their ability to recognize and lay off breaking pitches out of the zone. Additionally, he speculates that the fact that umpires are continuing to expand the strike zone creates a greater urgency within hitters to protect themselves at the plate. It’s an interesting analysis that’s well worth reading in its entirety. (Additionally, while his column doesn’t state this, Fagerstrom’s analysis reminds how strong Liriano’s work was in the first season of a three-year, $39MM investment that right now looks to be an excellent move for the club.)
Onto some other items pertaining more closely to the Pirates and their division…
- The Pirates will face a challenge in replacing Francisco Cervelli, who hits free agency next winter, writes Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Pirates have picked up a trio of excellent pitch-framers in Cervelli, Russell Martin and Chris Stewart in recent years, but the Martin contract shows what a premium the market now places on catcher defense, Sawchik notes, thus making it seem unlikely that they’ll re-sign Cervelli, who could end up as the market’s most valuable catcher. Sawchik sees no chance that the two sides will hammer out an extension, and he points out that while top prospect Reese McGuire draws strong praise for his glovework, he can’t be expected to be a contributor before 2018.
- Later in that same piece, Sawchik notes that the Pirates’ front office has taken a number of significant hits this winter — the most recent of which is the loss of Tyrone Brooks to the Commissioner’s Office. Brooks, the former director of player personnel, oversaw the team’s international and pro scouting efforts and played a large role in the acquisition of Jung Ho Kang. The Pirates have also lost special assistants Jim Benedict (who was renowned for his work with the team’s pitchers) and Marc DelPiano — both of whom left the organization to take positions with the Marlins.
- There’s been little in the way of trade talk surrounding Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun, Jon Heyman tweeted recently. Milwaukee has made more of an effort with catcher Jonathan Lucroy to this point, per Heyman, perhaps due to the club’s recognition of what would be a limited market for Braun. The asking price on Lucroy is said to be high, though Lucroy himself is open to a deal. As for Braun, his five-year, $105MM extension begins this season, but his value has been tarnished by a PED suspension as well as offseason back surgery and a nerve issue in his thumb that twice required a cryotherapy treatment last year. Braun did enjoy a nice season at the plate, however, hitting .285/.356/.498 with 25 homers and 24 steals.
- Cardinals shortstop Jhonny Peralta’s second-half decline may have been part of the impetus to trade for Jedd Gyorko, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. While Peralta himself said this past weekend that he doesn’t feel he wore down late in the year and always wants to play in as many games as possible, the 33-year-old batted just .247/.313/.305 over the season’s final two months. Hummel writes that Gyorko could be used to spell Peralta at third base despite a suspect glove at the position. Moreover, he notes that Aledmys Diaz, fresh off a monster second half and Arizona Fall League showing, could soon knock on the door to the Majors. “We’re excited where he is,” said GM John Mozeliak of Diaz. “I think you’ll probably see (Diaz) playing in the big leagues at some point this year, I wouldn’t rule that out at all and I welcome that.” Peralta expressed comfort with moving anywhere on the diamond, should the need arise, citing previous experience at third base and even at first base and in the outfield.
- “Tanking” has become a popular buzzword due to the number of rebuilding clubs in the National League, but Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron rejects the idea that any of the so-called tanking teams is actually trying to lose as many games as possible. The Brewers have held onto the likes of Lucroy and Will Smith thus far despite favorable contracts that appeal to other clubs, and they haven’t paid down a significant portion of Braun’s deal to move his bat, either — a reasonable expectation for a club gunning for the No. 1 pick. The Reds have prioritized proximity to the Majors over long-term upside in trades of veterans and haven’t made an effort to move their best player, Joey Votto, Cameron writes. The Braves have signed Nick Markakis and targeted MLB-ready help like Shelby Miller, Ender Inciarte and Hector Olivera in trades over the past 15 months, to say nothing of their Nick Markakis signing (and, I might add, the complementary signings of A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson and others). The Phillies are the only team that could reasonably fit the definition of “tanking” we see in the NBA, writes Cameron, but the best players in baseball can’t influence a team in the same manner they can in basketball. And, he rhetorically asks, would baseball truly be better off if the Phillies followed the path the Rockies have for the past several years — staunchly refusing to trade veterans (prior to this summer’s Troy Tulowitzki deal) and remaining in a noncompetitive state as opposed to “bottoming out in the hopes of bouncing back to high levels?”
The Pirates will be more than fine with Diaz behind the dish until Reese is ready if Cervelli leaves after the year. The 2017 Pirates should be able to carry a light hitting strong defensive catcher if Diaz’s bat never comes along.
Easy to confuse a team deciding not to tank with a team that’s trying but can’t find the right deals. The market this off-season has been all about pitching, starting and closers. If you had a healthy, veteran pitcher with a decent contract, you could do all kinds of nice deals to boot up your rebuild (i.e. Phillies). If your primary chips were hitters, you were SOL (i.e. Rockies, Brewers and Reds).
Travis…I love your stuff, but the Pirates have a a highly rated Catcher named Elias Diaz who will be replacing Cervelli. We’ll be fine.
As fine as the Braves were with their highly rated Catching prospect lol
The Phillies and Braves are rebuilding right as neither started the rebuild until the 2014-15 offseason and are both lauded as top farm systems and could be great by 2017 (2 seasons of “tanking”)
Brewers and Reds are doing a C+ job as they have both taken very underwhelming returns for their players and it seems as if they won’t be competitive until near 2019-20 on the divers model (5 seasons of tanking)
The Tigers on the otherhand are buying 2 more years and digging themselves a huge hole. Come 2018, the Tigers are going to be the Phillies of 2013-14, except their drought will last far longer due to the outrageous length of most of their contracts.
Tigers are fine. This sort of thing is always wildly exaggerated. The only really bad contract they have is Cabrera’s, and he’s still really good and probably will be as a DH for quite some time. Other than that, they’re really fine.
The Tigers traded and signed players this winter to add to the YOUNG nucleus of players they already had. Any Phillies comparison is imaginary. Miggy is 32, as is Verlander.
Justin Upton 28
JD Martinez 28
James McCann 25
Nick Castellanos 23
Jose Iglesias 26
Anthony Gose 25
Cameron Maybin 28
Jordon Zimmermann 29
Daniel Norris 22
Justin Wilson 27
Alex Wilson 29
Blaine Hardy 28
Bruce Rondon 25
The teams that have mostly young players, usually try to sign a veteran to help with clubhouse chemistry and doing things the right way (like Arroyo). The Tigers have Victor and K-Rod at 37 and 34 along with Miggy, for that.
Again though, ATL has been readily signing veterans to shorter deals showing a willingness to compete, while even showing interest in big-ticket free agents (i.e. Cespedes, etc.). While that might be wins, it’s showing they’re willing to compete and they’re flexible in their projection to be competitive. ATL is not reliant on compensatory picks and draft picks to rebuild the system, unlike other teams in recent history.
That’s not for a willingness to compete, it’s in hopes that they can bounce back and be flipped at the deadline for more prospects, while bridging the gap to top prospects so they’re not rushed
a huge reason for the Rangers success in recent years was their trade of Mark Teixiera to the Braves for a bunch of prospects who hit! Tex didn’t help the Braves who swapped him off the next year to the Angels, but Atlanta didn’t really recover the talent in return to make up for what they sent to Texas.
I would imagine that the draft class probably plays a part in that as well. The fact that there were no Bryce Harper’s or Carlos Correa’s in this year’s draft could’ve made it more sensible for Atlanta to spend 44 million on Markakis, or to trade Heyward foe a ML asset in Shelby Miller to stay competitive for half of a year. In draft classes with a surefire top prospect, I could see teams scrambling to the bottom the year before.
That’s the same thing people said about the Tigers in 2012 and 2013… As long as they continue to turnover the roster as they have in the past, they will be just fine
Name me one source that says David Stearns has done a “C ” job with the rebuild. I bet you can’t find any smart websites say that like fangraphs or Baseball America.
Most Philly fans would tell you that the team DID refuse to trade veterans for several years until they moved Cole Hamels this year. Funny, that’s the same timing as the Rockies in trading Tulo.
Yeah, their refusal to trade Utley and maybe even Dominic Brown really didn’t pay off.
They should have traded Utley in 2014 when he was an allstar, waiting really damaged his stock, but I like Darnell Sweeney and Dominic Browns name will forever haunt my dreams as a philly fan ._.
Braun’s cryotherapy treatments are not a big deal or cause for concern. Most often cryotherapy is used by healthy athletes. It’s not like getting a cortisone shot where you can only receive treatment a certain number of times.
I regards to pitches out of the zone… I’ve always wondered what would happen if hitters went up and just didn’t swing. So many pitchers now rely on hard sliders and other pitches to look like they’re strikes and then break out of the zone. Wonder if more hitters would draw walks if they just stopped trusting their eyes and chasing sliders a foot outside.
Me thinks that if they did not swing, then they would look silly standing there with the bat on the shoulder when the fastballs start going by them for strikes. I think it is a little more about being able to put some strikes by the batters earlier in the count, then they chase. If you watched Liriano pitch, if he gets behind, he starts to walk guys as the batters tend to sit on pitches. Very fine line.
As posted already, Elias Diaz will be the starter in 2017., That is, unless Travis is holding out on us and knows about a deal involving Diaz being in the works. Ya never know!
Aren’t all those people who are badmouthing the “tanking for draft picks” method saying “spend more, on stuff you dont need”? Isn’t it that sturdy capitalistic line that gets teams into serious financial hot water? All these midwest teams aren’t the Yankees, buying up guys to be an also-ran just makes no sense, and it could be critical to a smaller market team.
Right now, there’s no reward for winning 70-81 games, so teams are doing what they can to stay out of that window, and that fact alone means the Astros/Rays method is the most sensible way to run things until MLB adds more playoff teams to where .500 teams regularly make the playoffs like in the NBA and NFL…but do we really want .500 teams in the postseason?
I wouldn’t say the Astros and Rays methods are the same. The Rays, because of their pitching, were not ruled out last year, and are a dark horse this year. Being in the same division as the Yankees, Red Sox and Toronto makes their low payroll a starker contrast. They have maintained a competitive team for quite some time. Houston, which just got to respectability, tanked for a number of years, and have not proven their ability to sustain their success, as yet. Houston has produced mostly offensive players while Tampa maintains by producing pitchers. It will be at least 5 years before that comparison can be fairly made.
You missed my point: The Rays and Astros both dwelled in the cellar and filled their farm systems by consistent last place finishes over a bunch of years. Who they got with their picks is meaningless, their method is the same.
You’re wrong on both counts. Baseball is entertainment. It’s more entertaining when two team competing against each other are relatively equal. Most teams who end up with 70-81 wins don’t do so by design. They more than likely had a more than a glimmer of hope starting the year but things out of their control, injuries, one or two disappointing performances from key players resulted in below .500 records.
Tanking teams don’t pretend to have any hope whatsoever, and the team they put on the field day to day is not only a non contender, it’s not up to major leaguer standards even though that team is charging major league prices.
It’s not that difficult to build a roster every year that with some breaks and good fortune can at least contend late into the season. Virtually every team is capable of that financially and you can do that and still build a strong minor league system by outsmarting the other guys. Yes it won’t happen every year and some years disaster strikes. But purposely building a roster to lose 100 games and to ask fans to still pay money to watch is a disgrace and it to a great extend takes away from the accomplishments of teams that got to the postseason by feasting on a bunch of teams choosing not to compete.
LOL, “Im wrong on both counts” then you don’t really even address my points! FYYI the phrase you need to learn to use is “I disgree with this, here’s why” not “You’re wrong” because I’m actually not 100% wrong on this like you want to write me off as being.
I disagree with your post for the most part though – you are literally saying all 30 teams can compete if they felt like it, but aren’t because they’d rather have a draft pick, I can’t disagree more with that statement. People will always go to baseball games no matter who is playing or how good the team is, no one really cares “a day out at the ballpark” is a thing whether you like the team or not, it’s part of American life.
Also “MLB prices” – um, every team charges differently no matter who they put on the field, so that’s misleading, unless we are talking Cleveland, people really stopped attending games there for some reason. Also there’s been great teams who don’t sell out games until they look destined for the playoffs.
“Some years disaster strikes” – no, MOST years, disaster strikes for these teams that hold a false idea that they can contend, all the while getting worse and worse draft picks, just to get eliminated from the playoffs on Sept 15, not August 15, therein lies my point. Why overpay an ex-All-Star to throw up a 1.5 fWAR season and help your team win 75 games? The only way we could get teams to stop “tanking” would be to increase their postseason window, by adding more teams to the postseason.
That’s not the “only” way to get team to stop tanking. They could always invert the draft order. Take all of the teams that miss the playoffs and award the top pick to the team with the best record that didn’t make the playoffs. I think it would be very successful because every game would matter. And it would lead to some interesting philosophical discussions about whether it is better to get a wild card or miss and get a high draft pick. I think it would work even better in the NBA. It’s time we stopped rewarding losing in sports.
The only team that regularly tanks is the Marlins. And the Red Sox that one year they traded away every bad contract to the Dodgers. Not much you can do if A) your players suck and you paid them a lot, and B) No one wants to take on your players even for free (Phillies & Ryan Howard).
Phillies put themselves in a bind from which they couldn’t extricate themselves because big contracts turned sour. So I wouldn’t consider that tanking. Tanking is taking veteran quality players that you have on reasonable deals (ala the Brewers with Lucroy) and simply dealing them because the team badly underperformed under a bad manager for essentially 2 months, Sept. 14 and April 15.and you know teams will trade prospects for them. Sure trade Lucroy if a deal is right but for major league talent in return. and put a major league caliber team on the field to compete with the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates on something looking like equal footing instead of looking like the varsity against a JV team.
A) what team is going to trade current major league caliber players for current major league caliber players unless it’s a salary dump of some sort? What kind of specific trade do you have in mind for a Lucroy type of player where the Brewers get back enough in return to equalize out player ability? Let’s say Lucroy is a 3 WAR player, do they trade him for 2 1.5 WAR players? Why make that trade? What do they gain from that?
B) Small market teams rely on cost controlled talent to ever succeed. That’s why you see trades that send good players for prospects. It makes the current team worse in hopes that in the future the players they receive will bring in excess value of what they lost. So if the Brewers send 2 years of Lucroy in seasons they have no chance of winning and gain say 3 players, those three guys need to put up the same WAR over a combined 18 years of service time to even out the trade. If that happens when the team is better, it’s a huge win for the team.
C) it’s tough to get free agents to sign in places like Milwaukee or Cincinatti because the team just doesn’t have enough money to spend. Consider that the Brewers were in the top 10ish for almost a decade for attendance in such a small market and operated at a loss a couple of times in the past few years. They can’t just find new money and sign a Jason Heyward, especially not with an opt out
the reality is that there are rarely those players that “tanking” makes losing worth while. in MLB. NBA more than any other league makes it worth it since one player can turn a franchise around. now and then, there’s that great college quarterback like an andrew luck, troy aikman, john elway that can make tanking in the NFL worth it but even that’s rare. this year, i don’t think there is any lock for #1. as for baseball, with the exception of junior, ARod ,Hamilton and Harper in the last 20 years I don’t know of anyone who everyone knew would be great and were. with the rest, it’s a crapshoot and not really worth “tanking.” IMO I think this a moot point. .
No, no players think “I’m tanking”. They think “Hopefully I play well enough on this rebuilding team so I get traded to a contender for prospects.” All players want to win, tanking has to do with the quality of everyday players a team decides to employ, and honestly, it’s not even the best 10-15 guys on the 25 man, its the quality of players at 15-25 where a team can really fall into a hole.