MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Greetings! Happy Tuesday / St. Patrick’s Day / WBC final! I’ll get going at 1pm, but feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time if you prefer.
• Hello!
• Let’s begin

Lucas Giolito

• What date do I have to wait until so I don’t have draft pick compensation attached?

Steve Adams

• He didn’t receive a qualifying offer. He’s not attached to draft pick compensation.

Silky Johnson

• McGonigle can’t NOT make the opening day roster at this point, right?!?!

Steve Adams

• Darragh and I discussed this on the podcast episode we recorded this morning, which will drop tomorrow. But in short, yeah, at this point I’m fully expecting it. He’s been so good at every stop, including MLB spring training. There are no clear roadblocks to playing time for him. The Tigers are all in on 2026. I’ll be very surprised if he’s not the Opening Day SS.

MattStats5

• Thanks for doing these chats, Steve. Are the Orioles really going to carry four 1B/DH (counting Mayo once Westburg returns) into Opening Day, or is a trade more likely?  A few teams have 1B/DH at-bats available, making Mountcastle a nice trade chip.

Steve Adams

• I don’t really agree all that much that Mountcastle is a nice trade chip. I mean, I’m sure there’d be some modest interest if they shopped him, but RHH first basemen are about the least valued position in the game, he’s making decent money, and he’s coming off a down/injury-marred year.I have no doubt that some clubs would happily plug him into a 1B/DH role, but probably not for any particularly interesting return.

  Still seems like the eventual odd man out, though. I agree on that much

The Var-show

• Varsho has looked really strong this spring. Do u expect a strong performance with free agency coming up?

Steve Adams

• I expect a strong performance because I think Daulton Varsho is a good baseball player. I don’t really buy into the notion that players can will themselves into a big performance ahead of free agency. If they can, someone should’ve given Zac Gallen the memo!

Guest

• Have you updated your percentage in re Konnor Griffin going north with the Pirates?

Steve Adams

• I don’t fully recall what I said last time I was asked, but it’s become more likely to me as camp has gone along and at this point I am expecting it.

NO

• Not Mike Vasil 🙁 How much money is he getting paid this season?

Steve Adams

• League minimum is $780K, and he has a year of service, so probably a couple thousand more than that.

Giolito

• Atlanta or San Diego where will I sign?

Steve Adams

• If Giolito were going to sign in Atlanta, it’d have happened by now. And it doesn’t seem like the Padres have the money for another big addition, though I suppose they could do some insane mutual option structure where they sign him for like a year and $13MM, with only $2MM coming in 2026 salary plus an $11MM buyout on a $25MM option or something, just to kick most of the salary down the road by a year.

Guest

• News on Seyia?

Steve Adams

• Cubs haven’t divulged the MRI results yet. When they do, we’ll have it up quckly.

Guest

• I know Mark spoke on it Sunday, do think Colt Emerson starts at SS for the M’s with JP’s shoulder issue?

Steve Adams

• I don’t. There’s no indication Crawford is dealing with a significant injury. The MRI was already clean. If he requires any downtime, it’s not going to be long. I imagine you’d be looking at Leo Rivas at SS with Miles Mastrobuoni making the club in a utility role, something like that.If the Mariners surprisingly announce there’s a more serious injury at play for JPC, then perhaps, but I don’t think Crawford missing two to three weeks prompts them to break the glass on Emerson, who’s still only 20 and only has 40 games over A-ball under his belt.

Tauchman

• Is he opting out and who gets him if so?  Sneaky pick up for a team if he becomes available?

Steve Adams

• He should absolutely opt out if the Mets aren’t going to carry him. They’ve not yet made that call.I was surprised both to see Tauchman non-tendered and settle for a minor league deal. Astros seem like the easiest fit if he opts out, but I think Tauchman would be a nice affordable upgrade for most clubs. Good player — the market clearly doesn’t love him though.

Walter

• If Wetherholt and Griffin do make their MLB debut on Opening Day, How much pressure is their for Bazzana and Condon to make their debuts in 26?

Steve Adams

• The Rockies and Guardians aren’t going to rush Condon or Bazzana to the majors before they think either is ready just because others from the top end of the 2024 draft are already in the majors.Fwiw, I’d be borderline shocked at this point if the Cardinals send Wetherholt down. Griffin feels likelier than not to me. Bazzana would’ve been defensible, and I bet the Guardians don’t wait too terribly long. Condon just isn’t as far along or ready as the other three, and the Rockies have zero incentive to rush him when they’re going to lose 100 games anyhow.

Best free agent

• Outside of Giolito, who is the best free agent still remaining?

Steve Adams

• Michael Kopech?

Murph

• Who takes the 4th outfielder spot for San fran?

Steve Adams

• I assume Luis Matos, since he’s out of minor league options and outperforming Drew Gilbert (who has options remaining)

Reds Fan Here

• A solid bounce back year for Matt McLain in 2026!  Looking very good in Spring Training.  What other young Reds do you anticipate having a solid 2026?

Steve Adams

• He looks outstanding this spring. I don’t care about the .500 average really; we’re talking all of 43 plate appearances. I do care more about the greater number of walks than strikeouts, the sky-high Statcast numbers (93.6 mph EV, 58% hard-hit) … still a tiny sample, of course, but those things are harder to fake. His chase rate off the plate is way down, contact in the zone way up.McLain looked great as a rookie before he ruined his shoulder. I wouldn’t expect some kind of MVP-level season out of him or anything, but he seems healthy now — and if he’s healthy, I expect him to hit.

  Terry Francona already said he’s going to bat McLain second this year, so it sure seems like the Reds are convinced he’s back to 100%. Hard not to be with how he’s played. Really encouraging spring for Cincinnati fans.

314

• Nelson Velasquez making opening day roster?

Steve Adams

• Cardinals beat seems to think so. Not hard to see why with how he’s hit and their oft-stated goal of adding a RHH outfielder (which they never did beyond minor league signings like this)

Ross Gload

• Does Bazzana really need more experience in AAA, or is this just service time manipulation? The Guards need all the offensive help they can get, so it will be key to put their best hitters on the major league roster such as him and Delauter.

Steve Adams

• I imagine they genuinely think it’d benefit him. They’re going to carry DeLauter, as you said. If it were pure ST shenanigans, they could send him down, too.I’m surprised he’s not at least sticking around until the end of camp though. More surprised that the Guardians continue to think Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio is a tenable middle infield / that they did literally nothing to improve the offense this winter.

RoxTalks

• Not that I think Condon should be up at all costs by Opening Day, but I think he will be in Denver in ’26. He posted a 131 wRC+ in the minors last year and a 187 mark in 18 games in ST. I know he stuck out 26% of the time in ’25, but hes cut that down to 19% in ST and is drawing walks at solid clips across A, AA, and ST. Just for fun, he’s also slugging north of .700 this spring (in like 40 PA).

Steve Adams

• Certainly could be. But he also K’ed at a 28.5% clip in AA. Also doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft before the 2027-28 offseason, so they could keep him down all season and have him break camp in ’27 as a potential PPI generator.

Bondora

• Who do you think will have the worst rotation in the league this year? Im thinking cardinals or White Sox…

Steve Adams

• Nats, Rockies and Angels are all worse than those two, for me.

Guest

• Is Moises Ballesteros still eligible for rookie status this season?

Steve Adams

• Yup

Travis

• Do the Braves reward Ritchie for a strong spring training with making opening day roster or protect their SP depth by sending him down?

Steve Adams

• I’d lean toward preserving the depth, especially with three rotation candidates already out relatively long-term (or very long term, in Wentz’s case)

ZacharyA

• If there was a WBC-style tournament for U.S. states, which 4 states would end up in the semifinals?

Steve Adams

• Georgia, California, Texas and Florida?

Bondora

• Who do you view as the giants second best bullpen arm outside of walker?

Steve Adams

• Genuinely not sure they have another even league-average reliever after that. Their complete ignoring of the bullpen this winter is insane to me and one of the reasons I have them third or fourth in the NL West.

Dills in 2026!!

• If Suzuki is going to be out and Tauchman opts out, should the Cubs bring him back?

Steve Adams

• I imagine he could find a spot with more opportunity than a couple weeks at Wrigley while Suzuki mends. If it’s a longer-term issue, then it’d make a little more sense, but they could just give Kevin Alcantara a look as well in that scenario.

Moreno

• Saw your response saying the Angels are worse than the White Sox in rotation, we have Soriano, Kikuchi, Rodriguez, and Detmers, what do you mean?

Steve Adams

• Not expecting much of anything from Rodriguez. I like Detmers’ arm but he hasn’t gotten it done as a starter and I don’t trust the Angels to coax it out of him. The depth behind Soriano/Kikuchi — both solid to good starters — is really weak

Krall

• With the Ferguson injury and the way he’s playing, could Hagen Danner get a spot on the Reds Bullpen at least Temporarily

Steve Adams

• Sure. He’s looked good, had a nice spring, has been an intriguing guy in the past when healthy. He’s out of minor league options though, so there’s no real “temporary” spot in the ‘pen. If they add him, they need to keep him there — even when Ferguson is healthy — or else designate him for assignment.

Preller

• Shouldn’t the Padres sign Giolito instead of trying on Marquez and Buehler?

Steve Adams

• This assumes that Giolito is willing to sign for whatever amount the Padres have/had left. If he’s content to sit and wait til someone will offer him $10-15MM, even on a prorated deal, and the best San Diego could offer with whatever budget space they had left was $5MM or so, it doesn’t matter if he’s a better option than Marquez.(But, yes. Giolito > Marquez or Buehler)

Tigers

• Who do you expect to end the season as the tigers closer. Vest? Jansen? Finnegan? Or other?

Steve Adams

• Kenley isn’t as dominant as he was at his 2017-ish peak, but he’s still good and seems like he’s just going to keep pitching effectively until the wheels fall off. No flashing bright red warning sign yet, so give me Jansen there.

Preller

• Padres rotation in trouble?

Steve Adams

• Been true for a year or so now

John

• Seems like Cole Young is set to open as the Mariners 2B.  Does that mean Colt Emerson will be sent down?  Or does he have a chance to stick?

Steve Adams

• Young has pretty handily grabbed the 2B job. Donovan will be at 3B. Crawford at SS (or, if he has a short-term injury, Rivas there). I imagine Emerson will be in the mix for a midseason call-up if injuries send Donovan/Crawford/Young to the IL. (Or perhaps Arozarena, with Donovan then shifting to more LF)

Bucco Basement

• Should the Pirates try to pick up Vientos to play 3B for them? I know his defense is questionable over there but I can’t give up his potential with the bat. Probably could get him for a prospect, too, since the Mets have a 40-man crunch if they want to add Tauchman. What do you think?

Steve Adams

• I’d be fine with that fit, but I’m more bearish on Vientos than you and would really dislike that park fit for any power-over-hit RH slugger. At the very least, he’s a little less pull-heavy than the average RHH, I suppose.

Georgia??

• Georgia over New York seems like a really bad take. Why Georgia ?

Steve Adams

• https://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/GA_born.shtml
• List of Georgia-born MLB players
• (Sort by the “To” column to get current guys)

Paredes Pirates

• What would a prospect package need to look like from Pittsburgh to get Dana Brown off his “Big League Lefty Outfielder” Paredes price?

Steve Adams

• The Astros are trying to win right now and might not have Jeremy Pena on Opening Day as it is. They’re not trading Paredes for prospects. (And, as I said re: Vientos, that park would be tough for any RH slugger — but Paredes more than any RH slugger in MLB. He’s the most pull-happy RH home run hitter in the sport probably)

Georgia??

• Point proven you know more than I do about baseball. Time to eat crow Thanks Steve

Steve Adams

• Ha, I wouldn’t say I know more than anyone. But I am aware that GA is a powerhouse and that colder-weather states inherently produce fewer big leaguers, which makes sense. A lot easier to play ball year-round in Atlanta or Savannah, etc. than in Manhattan, Buffalo, Albany when you’re getting buried by snow

Shooter McGavin

• Do you think there’s a chance we’ll see Paul Skenes and Aaron Judge on the same team?

Steve Adams

• It’s called Team USA!
• But sure, Yankees will probably be in the Skenes chase when he hits FA in a few years, and Judge will still be signed then.

Steve111

• Who do you think to win tonight – Venezuela or USA

Steve Adams

• Genuinely could go either way. It’s one game between two rosters full of big leaguers. I lean U.S., just because the lineup is crazy, but Nolan McLean isn’t bulletproof. And that Venezuelan bullpen is … my goodness.
• I texted Anthony Franco, Tim Dierkes and Darragh McDonald last night and said: “What the actual hell happened to Andres Machado in Japan?”
• Dude is an absolute monster

Lucas Giolito

• Could I have gotten something like 2/24 back in November, had I proposed that?

Steve Adams

• I’m sure the Giants would rather have given 2/22 (or 2/24, sure) to Giolito than Adrian Houser. Houser took the 22 when it was offered. Giolito probably wanted more at that point.
• But yeah, whatever he signs for when he does come off the board certainly isn’t representative of what the highest someone was willing to pay for him in December was.

Dr. Know

• Can Shaw fight his way back into an everyday role with the Cubs?

Steve Adams

• Who’s he going to outplay on the current roster to get there? I expect him to be a pretty frequently used utility guy (400+ PAs), but barring an injury, he’s not going to be out there every single day. Next year, much likelier.

Squinky

• Is lazaro montes an untouchable prospect?

Steve Adams

• Is there such a thing as a prospect Mariners president Jerry Dipoto firmly won’t trade????
• I would imagine if there is, it’s Colt Emerson or Kade Anderson before it’s Montes.

Clint Hurdle

• Skenes/Keller/Chandler/Ashcraft/Jones (When healthy
• Pirates rotation upside as good as any team in the NL?

Steve Adams

• I wouldn’t quite stack them up against a fully healthy Dodgers rotation, but yeah they’re up there.

Arkansas

• Steve, who’d you pick to win march madness?

Steve Adams

• No one yet. I don’t follow college sports at all — baseball, a little bit, but not even ultra closely, as it’s not something I’m paid to cover — but I’ll still haphazardly throw together a bracket and hope to luck into some money in one of my friend pools

QO Predictions

• Who do you think will get a QO and decline? Obviously Skubal, but who else?

Steve Adams

• Oh this is so far ahead of time, but I like the question so give me a minute to run through the FA list haha
  (Which can be seen here! https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/2026-27-mlb-free-agents.html)
• I scanned pretty quickly so decent chance I missed someone, but:Jazz Chisholm
  Ian Happ
  Daulton Varsho
  Seiya Suzuki
  Shane Bieber
  Kris Bubic
  Jack Flaherty
  Casey Mize
  Brady Singer
  Tarik Skubal
  Bryan Abreu
  David Bednar

Brewerfan

• Who has a bigger years: Mitchell or Collins? Mears or Zerpa?

Steve Adams

• Collins, Zerpa

Joe

• So Luinder Avila has looked pretty good in the WBC. Royals 5th starter looked to be between Kolek, Bregert and Cameron, but all 3 of those have had pretty poor spring results. Did Avila cost himself a shot at starting the year in the rotation by leaving camp for the WBC? Or is the high pressure experience a boost to his development so it helps him in the long run?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think there’s any real jeopardy for Noah Cameron’s spot. 11 shaky spring innings aren’t going to offset last year’s 138 MLB frames

Power

• Skenes seems like he wants to hit FA like Skubal is going to. Would an extension giving him the salaries as Skubal (plus an extra 1M each season) with a say 35M-ish guarantee for one free agent season work for both sides? Skeener gets to set SP precedents, a big guarantee and still can become a FA at 29. The club gets an extra year of control on one of the best SP in a while.

Steve Adams

• Skenes is never signing an extension that buys out one free agent season

Hello stove

• What do you think singers next contract looks like?

Steve Adams

• Pivetta-ish? $13-15MM per season over three to four years? Obviously depends on how he looks this year, of course.

Fox Broadcast

• Trevor Rogers for the QO. Never again to be confused with Tyler

Steve Adams

• Told you I missed someone haha

QO Predictions Part 2

• Maybe Nico Hoerner? Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozerana, Taylor Ward possible if they perform well

Steve Adams

• Hoerner for sure
• Lowe — teams don’t pay 2B only players and he’ll be 32 going on 33. Ward doesn’t get on base enough; teams are generally wary of low-OBP corner sluggers.Randy perhaps, yeah.

QO

• i highly doubt singer and abreu get the QO. What makes you think they do?

Steve Adams

• Singer is a rock-solid 3-WAR SP who’ll be going into his age-30 season.Abreu might be one of the 10 best relievers in MLB and is also going into age 30. He’s less likely than the others (as is Bednar), which is only natural for a reliever, but if he repeats 2025? Easy QO for me.

Brewer Fan

• Again with the Mitchell hate!

Steve Adams

• I neither know nor hate Garrett Mitchell. But I am generally wary of any player who strikes out in one-third of his plate appearances holding down a consistent MLB spot.
• Mitchell is also hurt constantly.

Mickey Mouse

• Realistic LH OF trade options for HOU? Mickey Moniak?

Steve Adams

• Moniak is indeed a LHH OF, but I wouldn’t give up anything of note for him. Not even sure he’ll survive the season on a big league roster. The defense is really shaky, and I don’t think he can repeat the offense with such a massive chase rate and suspect hit tool.

Rick

• Is Jung a lost cause due to his prior injuries and missed time or can a healthy Jung be a productive 3B?

Steve Adams

• Depends on your definition of productive, which is relative. I think he can be a steady regular, but I don’t think he’s a star or anything. Increasingly feels like a change-of-scenery guy to me, given the ups and downs — and Chris Young’s pointed comments about him last summer.
• But, I said the same thing about Nolan Gorman and John Mozeliak, and the Cards held him

2-out walk

• Flaherty for QO? I think only if he has a great season. last time on the market when he was 2 yrs younger he only got $17.5M

Steve Adams

• Was more a vote of confidence from me that I think he can have a good, mid-3.00s ERA season with plenty of innings and a good K-BB profile
• Alright I’ve got to call it for the week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.socialIf you want more opinions and analysis from our team — plus ad-free viewing and access to all of our tools (Contract Database, Agency Database, GM Tracker, etc) — you can sign up for our Trade Rumors Front Office package, which gives you access to a pair of weekly subscriber-only chats, our weekly subscriber mailbag, a couple of weekly articles and more.

  Have a good week, everyone!