Now is the time for the Cubs to try to sign ace Jake Arrieta to a long-term deal, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes. Arrieta and the Cubs recently agreed on a one-year, $10.7MM contract to avoid arbitration in Arrieta’s second year of eligibility. Arrieta can currently become a free agent after the 2017 season. Of course, Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras would surely agree that an extension for Arrieta shouldn’t be cheap after his Cy Young award-winning 2015 season, and since Arrieta turns 30 next month, he might only have one shot at a big free agent deal, meaning he might not be inclined to sign now unless the deal is quite long. Also, Arrieta’s incredible stretch run changed the landscape since we last closely considered his extension candidacy. Levine proposes a four-year deal at an average of $23MM per season, with two club options. While it’s true that Arrieta’s salaries for the next two seasons are essentially set via the arbitration process, a $92MM deal with options would, in my opinion, be unlikely to bring Boras and Arrieta to the table. Recent history suggests Arrieta has a shot at a deal in the $200MM range if he waits until after 2017. Here’s more from the National League.
- The Pirates won 98 games last season and have a strong core in place, but many of their top competitors in the National League have improved, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. The Cubs have had a busy and productive offseason, and while the Cardinals have lost talent (some of it to their rivals in Chicago), they should benefit somewhat from better luck with injuries. The rest of the league, too, has become increasingly polarized, with several very bad teams, but lots of potentially strong ones, including the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks. The Bucs, however, continue to believe in themselves. “There’s no question the Cubs did a fantastic job on balancing amateur player acquisition and timing it with those young players being ready to hit the major league level and then pouring a ton of money into free agency,” says Pirates GM Neal Huntington. “They are going to be good going forward. The Cardinals are going to be good going forward. Our belief is, with this core that we have, that we are going to continue to be good going forward.”
- The Phillies don’t figure to be one of the NL contenders in 2016. They should, however, be fun, as FanGraphs’ Paul Swydan writes. They suddenly have only a handful of over-30 players, and the younger ones offer a mix of power (Maikel Franco), defensive ability (Odubel Herrera), speed (Cesar Hernandez) and, among the Phillies’ young pitchers, control (Aaron Nola). Then there’s top prospect J.P. Crawford, who could make his debut in 2016, along with a number of other very interesting minor leaguers, including Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp, Dylan Cozens, Jake Thompson, Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel.
Good luck with signing Arrieta now at “only” 200m extension. Boras got Scherzer 200m+ last offseason. His sights will be higher now with his next shiny toy.
Scherzer was a lot younger than Arrieta will be when he hits free agency.
From the Cubs point of view. They have control over Arrieta for two more years. The only reason to try to get an extension done now is if Arrieta were to agree to a hometown discount. If he doesn’t do that, there is zero reason for the Cubs not to wait until he’s closer to free agency. There is zero chance he will get more expensive by then. I mean if they can get him for 6/150, it’s wort the Cubs doing something but if he is expecting 200 million anyway, just wait the two years.
Arrieta has under 400 innings of dominance to his name and he will be two years older than Scherzer was entering the free agent market. And Scherzer was coming of 620+ innings of dominance over three years, and 1000+ innings total over five years. Arrieta has two years to prove he’s worth $200MM in FA, but going into his age 32 season that may prove difficult without a more sustained record of success. Greinke got $200MM over 6 years, putting him into his age 38 season, and many consider that deal to be ill-advised. Obviously we don’t know where the market will go, but Arrieta getting a 6 year deal AND at the same value seems pretty unheard of right now.
Quality post Stuart Brown. Right now any extension would mean the following:
For Jake Arrieta, he buys security against the vagaries associated with being a pitcher in the major leagues. Right now, I think there is a 25% chance he continues to be Clayton Kershaw’s equal. 50% chance he is an above average to elite pitcher. 25% he goes full Lincecom or gets hurt. If he signs a big contract, he will hedge his bets against that bottom 25% happening. He gets a lifetime of financial security for his family in a place where he, presumably likes to play and he and his family can settle in and out down roots.
For the Cubs, they buy financial certainty and get there too two starters under contract for the next 5 years or so. And they do it without paying at the top of the market. Sure, they assume all the risk of that 25% chance above occurring but if any of the other 75% happens, they have to feel good about it.
Here is the contract, as I see it. Essentially the Cubs give Arrieta a 50% raise in his arbitration awards (and proposed award) for this year and next. They settled at 10 something this year. Tear it up and give him 15. Next year was going to be 14, so give him 21. Then give him a 4 year extension using Jon Lester as a guide.
So, Lester is averaging a little over 25 per (6/155). So the. Cubs should just round up and give Arrieta 26 per. That makes it:
2016: 15M
2017: 21M
2018: 26M
2019: 26M
2020: 26M
2021: 26M
That gives him 6/140 and makes him richer than his wildest dreams. It allows him to not worry about risking injury in the next two years or sudden ineffectiveness. The Cubs will have to worry about that, not Jake.
I don’t see a good reason why that can’t work.
I think that’s a fair contract actually.
Boras would never accept it, but I think its a very honest evaluation of both sides.
Agreed. Boras always takes his people to FA, unless 1 of 2 things occurs:
1) Owner makes an over market offer that is fairly certain to unobtainable on the open market and in recent years, has some kind of opt out ( see Elvis Andrus)
2) Player insists on returning, or extending with current team (see Jered Weaver, Jason Varitek).
Most every other case? He is going to take his players into FA and take them as long into that off season as long as possible to extract as much as possible, it’s why players hire him, not for his friendly attitude…
I think it’s a risk for Arrieta. As I see it, he’s as likely to be Brandon Webb as Max Scherzer. There is no chance he gets a Scherzer contract now. But if he insists on taking the chance and letting his agent set the price then whatever. As I see it, Arrieta is in a prime position to go the Jered Weaver route for a whole variety of reasons.
If the Cubs were to go the Bruce Levine option as was suggested in this post, I could agree that Boras would never go for that, but basically giving him Jon Lester money two years before he’s actually eligible to hit the FA market, I mean if the Cubs did that, they’d think long and hard.
As for me, as a Cub fan, I’d like to have a player I can root for way down the line but otoh, I don’t want them to spend a massive amount on someone who turns into Barry Zito or something. I find whatever happens here fascinating.
Oh and I bet the Cubs get one of their Boras guys to extend into free agent years, at least. Not sure if it’s Arrieta, Bryant or Russell. It’ll happen.
It makes the most sense for both the Cubs and Arrieta to wait at least half a year, if not the full year, before really discussing an extension. For the Cubs, it gives them at least another half season to determine if Arrieta is the real thing (rather than just two good years) and for Arrieta, a good year will only boost his value. The Cubs should only be willing to sign Arrieta to a long-term deal if its somewhat team friendly while Arrieta should only sign if he gets overpaid or is just really loyal to the Cubs (which he could be, but considering 2017 may be his one year to really cash, and at his age, I wouldn’t blame him for holding out for a lucrative deal).
Ha- would love to see the Cubs give Arrieta a 150-200m deal and tie even more money in a player that doesn’t deserve it (Heyward). Go for it!!
Heyward has great value with defense Gets on base at a great clip and great clubhouse presence . Cards didn’t replace him with equal player so weakens rival . Arrieta has had back to back solid seasons so no reason to see him drop off. If stud this year sign him long term. If we did over pay for either with tv money coming and being big market it won’t hurt us(Cubs)
If by interesting you mean my phils season will be disappointing, I’d agree
That’s definitely the wrong way to look at it. The team likely won’t be .500 but it’s much more fun watching a team lose more than it wins when the guys on the field are approaching their peaks instead of leaving them. A 70-win Phillies team with Utley, Rollins, and Howard was only going to get worse. A 70-win Phillies team with Altherr, Odubel, Franco, Crawford, Quinn, Alfaro, Nola, Eickhoff, Vincent Velasquez, etc. is only going to get better. Take it from me as a Mets fan – the 2013 and 2014 teams were still “losers” but looked a heck of a lot better than the garbage we had before. It’s way more fun to watch guys get better than watching them decline.