The Royals are looking to capitalize on the demand for Wade Davis by attempting to package Ian Kennedy’s contract with him in trade talks, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Passan notes that the Dodgers are one team with noted interest in Davis that could afford to take on the remainder of Kennedy’s enormous contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears the same as Passan — that the Royals are trying to attach Kennedy’s onerous financial commitment to Davis in trade talks — though he gets the sense that the Dodgers wouldn’t be willing to take on that type of money to get their hands on Davis (links to Twitter).
While the asking price on Davis, in terms of prospects, has been said to be exceptionally high — Kansas City has reportedly targeted Lucas Giolito in exchange for him, and the Arodis Chapman package reportedly wouldn’t have been enough for Davis — absorbing Kennedy’s staggering contract would dramatically reduce the prospect capital required for any team to add Davis to its bullpen. Kennedy signed one of the most stunning and widely panned contracts of the offseason, securing a five-year $70MM contract that included an opt-out clause after the second year. He’s owed $2.7MM for the remainder of this season and a total of $65.2MM through the end of his deal in 2020. Kennedy could technically opt out after the 2017 season, in which case he’d “only” be owed $22.2MM through the end of next season, but based on his performance this year, that seems unlikely.
The 31-year-old Kennedy (32 in December) has pitched to a 4.41 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 33.2 percent ground-ball rate in 2016. His 26 home runs allowed are the most in the league, and the dramatic spike he saw in his homer-to-flyball ratio last season hasn’t regressed whatsoever, still sitting at 17.3 percent. Given the increase of fly-balls he’s seen this year, that has made him even more homer-prone than he was in 2015 and resulted in a dismal 2.05 HR/9 rate. The Royals’ signing of Kennedy was a contributor to their franchise-record payroll this season, and the hefty financial commitment they made to him in the long term could impact the team’s ability to retain stars such as Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Davis — each of whom is a free agent following the 2017 season.
Of course, it could be a tough pill to swallow for the Dodgers to take an asset with as much trade value as Davis possesses and leverage him as a means of shedding payroll. The Royals could reasonably ask for a greater package than the one the Cubs surrendered for Chapman — Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford — given the extra year of control over Davis at a reasonable rate. However, the possibility also exists that Kansas City is trying to capitalize in fear of a potential decline or injury.
Davis has already missed time this season with a forearm strain, and while his ERA rests at an immaculate 1.60, the rest of his stats are far less encouraging. Davis’s strikeout rate has dipped from 13.6 K/9 in 2014 and 10.4 K/9 in to 2015 to a more mortal 8.6 K/9 in 2016. He’s also averaging four walks per nine innings this year — a noted increase over the 2.8 BB/9 he logged from 2014-15 — and has seen his fastball dip from an average of 95.8 mph in 2014-15 to 94.9 mph in 2016. Davis’ bottom-line results, of course, remain tantalizing, and his track record is among the best in the game. Nonetheless, there are at least some red flags that could give potential trade partners cause for concern, especially if they’re being asked to take on a contract as unappealing as Kennedy’s in conjunction with Davis himself.
This seems like exactly what the Rangers are looking for, wondering if they are the other team.
I agree, this could be perfect for Texas. Great back of the pen option and an innings eater to fill some a spot at the back end of the rotation. Texas has the financial flexibility to take on Kennedy and definitely has the prospects needed to pry Davis loose.
Also the Rangers were interested in Kennedy before, I could see a potential deal
There is absolutely no way the Rangers take on Kennedy’s contract. Can you imagine how many homers he would give up at Globe Life if he’s giving up that many at the K. The Rangers already got their innings eater and bullpen help in a trade yesterday.
No way can you rely on Lucas Harrell to be your innings eater. I’m with you, Kennedy isn’t a great fit. But if he reduces the price to getting an elite closer in Wade Davis, which Texas really needs, it’s not a bad idea. It’s not like Kennedy is the worst pitcher in the big leagues. He’s still a serviceable guy that will often get you to the seventh inning.
Harrell is 5 starts removed from being out of the big leagues since 2014. I don’t think you can really trust that small of a track record. Maybe he pitches great and eats up innings, but you really can’t know.
I knew the Royals overpaid Ian Kennedy. It really will cripple their payroll if they can’t move on from him.
Wouldn’t Kennedys contract negate all, if not more of Davis’ value?
Depends on the team. Not for someone like the Dodgers who don’t care about the money.
Every MLB team cares about money to some degree, even the rich ones who have to deal with luxury tax repercussions.
Forget about the money for a moment and consider the roster instead. Do the Dodgers have a place for him in the rotation now? Would they want him to be potentially occupying a rotation slot until 2020? These are larger considerations than the money.
Agreed. Royals probably need to find someone already signed for another 3-4 seasons by a team that would prefer to utilize that player’s roster spot some other way (e.g., Ellsbury).
Dayton’s going to have a tough time getting out from under the Kennedy contract.
The Dodgers have the dough to make a three-way happen by discounting Kennedy’s contract to a team that otherwise couldn’t afford so much for a bottom-rotation starter. The Dodgers already have endless 4-5 options so they have no real place for Kennedy, unless they’d consider flipping some of those, e.g., Bolsinger, Stripling.
I can see them taking on his contract and then flipping him. Eating a good chunk of his salary to get a decent prospect (or major league piece they need) in return. I think Kennedy would appeal to a lot of teams at a much more reasonable rate.
The Dodgers haven’t had a problem with paying guys to not play for them, I’m not sure why they’d start today. If eating a bunch of Kennedy’s contract gets Davis really cheap(prospect wise) that seems like a Dodgers move.
The Dodgers have been paying guys on one year contracts to not play for them. They desperately need to get under the luxury tax in 2018 or 2019 and adding $14 million through 2020 won’t help.
Why do they desperately need to do that?
To free up payroll space for free agents when there’s a good class
Kennedy could possibly help an NL team. Maybe the Nats.. I don’t know if they can add this kind of payroll though.
Nats wouldn’t take on that contract. Not when they’ve locked up scherzer and Strasburg and have Roark, Ross, and Giolito/Lopez in the rotation for cheap. Where would Kennedy fit in.
Red Sox? Ziegler-Davis-Kimbrel. Ask their crappy starters to get them 5-6 innings. Kennedy could start on those rainy or humid days when Wright can’t go. LOL
Because that’s what the Sox need. Another pitcher that gives up a ton of homers
If they trade Wade Davis they better get Urias or I think it’s a mistake
That Kennedy deal stunk from day 1. Too much money/years, deserved 3/35 at most. Why do GM’s make moves we all know are bad from the jumpoff? We should not know better than them.
Dayton Moore has made countless questionable moves in his career, he got really lucky the last few years. He’s not a good GM whatsoever
This is why MLB is the cruelest game. Sabean and Moore made horrible, franchise-handcuffing moves, but win titles anyway. Meanwhile Beane gets a movie made about how good he is and yet the A’s go 1-16 in playoff series/wild card clinch games under him.
Don’t often agree with you but 100% on this
Would rather have a gm that makes “questionable moves” and take home championships instead of a gm that can’t find the right way or “luck” to win one.
It’s easy to just say that but time on the job, payroll to work with, and team inherited factor so much in a GM. Sabean could have easily been canned before the first of the championships ever happened.
Exactly. I don’t think many KC fans will be regretting much even if their team becomes mediocre again for awhile.
Mainly speaking for Moore. Championship won with all of his guys. Hired with the basis for doing a rebuild. Successfully did it when others have failed.
What do you mean “if”? The KC method of building is to gather high draft picks by losing at the highest level, for a long time.
now that we’re talking about the horrific contract Kennedy has, were forgetting how bad Alex Gordon’s contract is. I know he has nothing to do with this article but his contract proves Dayton Moore’s uselessness as a GM. This proves that you don’t need a GM that’s good with money and free agent signings to win a World Series.
Kennedy – 5yr/$70mil @ age 31 / WAR 0.1
Gordon – 4yr/$72mil @ age 32 / WAR 0.3
Young – 2yr/$12mil @ age 37 / WAR -1.4
Volquez- 2yr/$20mil@ age 32 / WAR 1.6
Morales- 2yr/$18mil @ age 32 / WAR-0.1
That’s $192 million committed to 5 guys that are older than 31 and past their primes, with a combined WAR of 0.5.
The GM needs to work on moving a few other contracts and not focus solely on Kennedy. It would be way easier to package Gordon with Davis for an outfield and pitching prospect. if he wants to clear space, Gordon is the guy to get rid of. Sure he plays great defense but it comes at a huge cost.
Agreed – KC has managed to avoid such deals in the past, but they too a big gamble on this one. Terrible contract from the get-go.
Tigers. Looks like exactly what MIke Ilitch would jump on.
How much more other than taking on the contract? If not so much more, this is a no brainer. Just Money from the Pizza man.
Taking on both the Davis and especially the Kennedy contracts would put the Tigers into deeper luxury tax waters. The Royals would not be interested in taking back any significant salaries to offset that amount. This would mean the Tigers would be responsible for even more dollars than just the contract values because of their tax liability.
Adding in the fact that this deal would involve two division rivals makes this trade even more unlikely.
Not gonna happen. The Tigers have never been a team to trade for other team’s bad contracts. They trade for players and then sign them to bad contracts of their own doing.
Given the bad blood between the Dodgers and Kennedy from his Diamondback days (intentionally throwing at not only Puig, but Greinke as well and starting an all-out brawl between the two clubs), I have a really hard time seeing the Dodgers taking him on. Add in the albatross of a contract, and honestly I just don’t see it happening. Different front office, so I suppose it’s possible, but seems pretty doubtful to me, even if that was four years ago.
Good point, I’d forgotten about the history. Not that history would make much difference to this FO. The only way I can see this happening is in a three-way deal where the Dodgers pay down a big piece of Kennedy’s contract and flip him to another team. For maybe $20-30M they could keep Davis and possibly get a midlevel prospect from the third team.
It could possibly lead way to a three way trade which FO is familiar with.
Great post and facts. I definitely agree. And wouldn’t want to bring him into my clubhouse after he did all that. And it’s a catch 22. Kennedy would cause the bullpen to eat innings. Not the other way around. He may go 5innings every night and tax the bullpen every time he pitches
Greinke is gone and I’m not sure Puig would have any influence on the team’s roster moves. The fans might not like it but I don’t see this as a roadblock.
With a specific package of Davis and Kennedy, the Dodgers would be a good suitor. They would like to add a solid bullpen arm as well as add to their questionable rotation and Kennedy could just be an innings guy for them.
Dodgers have enough Ian Kennedy types though.
Right, and he hasn’t been an innings-eater anyway. It’s been awhile since he’s averaged more than six innings per start. Kennedy is exactly what the doctor didn’t order.
Too much money for Marlins?
Wayyy too much
So, the Royals are really selling this year..?
Hope the Dodgers take this bait. Davis has been incredibly lucky the last few years, not in terms of talent or performance (he’s nothing short of dominating), but in terms of staying away from serious injuries. Royals fans remember what happened to both Holland and Soria before him. Now is the time to get some value back for the Cyborg before his parts start malfunctioning!
Let me know if this is silly but if the Dodgers don’t want to take on Kennedy’s length and dollar amount but the Royals want to unload him in order to move Davis. This is where the rebuild and low payroll of the Brewers could come in. Make it a 3 team trade, Dodgers and Royals swap Davis and prospects, Brewers take on Kennedy, getting a prospect from each team, send Garza to Dodgers as part of offset to salaries, (Dodgers I imagine would just release him if they can afford it) and Brewers get some cash considerations for Kennedy’s contract which should run out just as the Brewers stated goal for competitiveness begins.
Braves or Phillies could do the same thing.
I could see the Dodgers doing this, than trading away Kennedy while eating the contract to a team like Toronto or Baltimore and getting a couple “lotto ticket” type prospects back in return.
Oh god Kennedy in Baltimore or Toronto might end up giving up 60 homers a year lol
These aren’t the Dodgers of the past. They’re shedding money not trying to take more on. They won’t do a large trade unless it’s for an ace. I don’t see them parting with the prospects to get Davis even if Kennedy isn’t attached.
Should the Red Sox take this deal? Especially for Kennedy?
I would think 4 out of the 7 Dodger GM’s would have to agree on a potential transaction of this magnitude before it ever took place.
Dodgers and Rangers seem like teams that will bite on this package. They have the money and wouldn’t mind taking a chance on a spotty starter like Kennedy, especially this season given their rotation woes.
Forearm strains = elbow injuries.. Couple that injury with peripheral numbers being down this year.. He’s a torn UCL waiting to happen.. If someone gets stuck with Kennedy and Davis goes down, depending on what the other team gives up, that could hurt a franchise for a long time. I wouldn’t deal for Davis. Kennedy’s contract is among the worst in the game and made no sense to anyone when it was signed, let alone after the fact when the stats prove it. The Yankees would consider this if they were in contention, the Red Sox and Dodgers are really the only other two teams who could give up the prospects and take on the contract and I don’t think either of them will be willing to take on Kennedy’s full salary. He’s a #5 starter at best. I don’t blame KC for wanting to move him, but oh yeah – you signed him.
Was going to write this morning, but the perfect storm is forming for the Yankees and Andrew Miller. They have been winning since the AS break and are not as far out of contention as people seem to think. At the same time, Papelbon is doing his best Papelbon impression and blowing savings. For the Yankees, there should be no motivation to move Miller or Betances. Both are extremely valuable for years to come to fill out that bullpen. No, my real problem is with the Nationals and I’m really baffled by their lack of action. You have a rotation that you’ve spent half a billion dollars on, only to compliment it with the dollar store version bullpen. The Nationals have been a strong contender for 4-5 years now and are constantly kicked out first round, etc. If there were ever a time to make an acquisition like Miller, that time is now. Not even saying the Yanks should do it. Yes, Golito would be the first name, which is non-negotiable, but let’s also remember he’s had one TJ surgery already. That doesn’t diminish his value all that much, but when looking at the bigger picture, what if he blows out his elbow again 2-3 years from now and the Nat’s miss the postseason this season. You’ll look back and thought, man we should have really doubled down and gone for it. I really hate this whole prospect hugging philosophy of teams. It works for a while, but at some point, you’ve got to cash them in. Anyway, count me as one of the baseball fans, that doesn’t understand what appears to be an identity crisis for the Nat’s. To me, they’re the Red Sox of the National League with their somewhat confused organizational philosophy..
Yanks will trade Milleri if they can get a future ace like Giolito or Urias plus another good prospect like Robles or Bellinger.
If the Yankees want to rebuild into a contender, they need to trade Miller. Its as simple as that. They can keep him and win 75-80 games again next year. Whoopty doo.
I’d do this if we could get Urias; Puig; Kashmier; J. Pederson
Not sure who that Kashmier guy is, but if you’ll take Scott Kazmir off our hands I will throw in my reserve parking pass for the rest of the season. But forget about the others, you aren’t getting them for a relief pitcher, let alone all three.
Dayton Moore would be better off trying to package his mother in law with Davis.
Pay to play, Dodgers. If you want Davis then your top prospects are on the table. Taking on Kennedy only slightly reduced the price.
Kennedy and Davis are owed about $80 Million which computes to a negative $72Million value. The Royals would have to add Yordano Ventura to the deal with 40 million cash to be a break even proposition. Braves would probably do a deal for the three pitchers and catcher Chase Vallot for Erick Aybar, Nick Markakis, and Jim Johnson.
The best fit may be the Orioles.