Forty-nine weeks ago, Matt Wieters became the second player to ever accept a qualifying offer from his team (following Colby Rasmus, who accepted a day prior). The move came as somewhat of a surprise at the time, as despite a lackluster season that was slowed by injuries, Wieters was poised to hit the market as the top available catcher. The former No. 5 overall pick and agent Scott Boras elected to instead take a one-year, $15.8MM offer, however, which afforded Wieters with the chance to further reestablish his health. While he succeeded in that effort to some extent, the 2016 season came with mixed results overall.
Wieters, 31 next May, tallied 464 plate appearances over the life of 124 games. While that’s a low total relative to his most durable years, the Orioles shielded Wieters early in the season from playing on consecutive days and were cautious in building him to the point where he would even catch on three consecutive days. Wieters did just so for the first time this past season in June, and by September he’d built up to the point that he at one point drew starts behind the plate on six consecutive days. In that regard, Wieters was able to demonstrate that he’s physically capable of handling a notable workload behind the plate — something he was unable to show in 2016 when he caught back-to-back games on just four occasions. Certainly that show of durability improves his free agent stock this winter.
On the other hand, Wieters’ overall production at the plate deteriorated this season. He saw his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all decrease along with his walk rate, and while he improved his strikeout rate from 23.8 percent to 18.3 percent, Wieters also nearly doubled his infield-fly rate. After popping up just four times in 282 PAs last year, Wieters popped out 17 times in this year’s 464 PAs — and those infield flies are every bit as detrimental as a strikeout, as they’re effectively a wasted at-bat and a guaranteed out. Park-adjusted metrics OPS+ and wRC+ agreed last season that Wieters’ bat was roughly league average (101 — or one percent above the league average), whereas this season he was markedly below the league average (88 wRC+, 87 OPS+ or 12 and 13 percent below average, respectively). He did belt 17 home runs, but he hit just 17 doubles and overall managed a pedestrian .243/.302/.409 batting line. That’s about league average for a catcher, but as noted before, it’s a far cry from average relative to the entire league.
On the defensive side of things, Wieters threw out 35 percent of opponents trying to steal against the Orioles’ pitching staff while he was behind the plate — an encouraging outcome for a catcher that had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and dealt with elbow tendinitis last year — but he once again drew poor marks in the eyes of pitch framing metrics. Baseball Prospectus rated him as below average in that regard for the fourth consecutive season, while StatCorner.com has been giving Wieters a below-average framing grade for five straight years.
Wieters has accepted a qualifying offer once before and would bring his two-year tab with the Orioles from 2016-17 to $33MM if he received and accepted another this year. That’s certainly nothing to scoff at, but if Boras and Wieters feel that the improved durability in 2016 will lead to a multi-year deal on the open market, then they’ll surely think he can earn more. And, the fact that Wilson Ramos suffered a horribly timed knee injury that will weigh down his free-agent stock only makes Wieters look more appealing relative to the remainder of the market. In that respect, it’s easy to see why the Orioles might feel comfortable making the offer.
The other side of the coin for the O’s, though, is that they opened the 2016 season with a franchise-record $147MM payroll and currently project to have an even larger $155MM payroll next season, as Jason Martinez lays out on the Orioles’ payroll page over at Roster Resource. That figure doesn’t include Wieters at all, so penciling him in at an additional $17.2MM would cause the team’s projected payroll to balloon to $172.2MM next season before even addressing any of the other needs that face the Orioles’ roster — namely adding some rotation help and a corner outfielder. Considering the fact that Wieters has already surprised the team by accepting once before, Orioles GM Dan Duquette may not wish to make that kind of gamble a second time.
There’s an argument to be made for either side, so let’s open this one up to the public for debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
No
Worst case scenario they’re overpaying him to fill a need for one year.
Nope! Hit the bricks. Oriole’s can get him cheaper on a 1 year deal. Hopefully has a more productive year and then hit the open market.
No way. Let him sign in ATL or CLE for 1 yr/$6mm.
Wieters, with or without rejecting a qualifying offer, will shatter that. And I say that as someone who isn’t a huge fan of his overall skill set.
@ Steve Adams.
What’s the type of best possible outcome you see for Weiters?
I was thinking something in the range of 2yr/$30m if Weiters rejects a QO.
There is no way he gets only 1 year for $6 million. Backup catchers almost get there no days. The O’s need to learn from their mistake of no offering QO’s and offer him another one. If he accepts then that’s one need they don’t have to worry about, if he doesn’t the he’ll get a decent 3-4 year deal in the open market and O’s get a MUCH needed Comp. pick.
Worst case; he fills in at a palatable price tag (after all, there are no bad 1 year deals) and ideally, he gets a better offer elsewhere, and they net a pick. Its not like the O’s system is overflowing with talent these days, In all honesty, the pick is debatable more valuable then Wieters.
I have to think Boras would be smart enough to take another QO since he’s probably only worth slightly more than half that. I suppose if I’m Baltimore I could live another year vastly overpaying him, especially if they don’t have a viable alternative, They do need to address starting pitching and freeing up some cash might help. Tough call.
If I was the O’s, I would offer him one. It has already came out that he will most likely not accept it, so the O’s would then get the extra draft pick if he goes on and signs somewhere else. If he does accept it then they have their catcher to cover the gap year for Sisco. If he doesn’t perform good enough and Sisco is ready by midseason then try to trade Wieters at the deadline.
I wish they would so the braves don’t sign him.
Boras will step in so he can get that 2nd QO…
Why would Boras want a QO for Weiters when Weiters would easily surpass the $17M QO total value on the open market. If anything Boras would prefer Weiters not get the QO because that would just increase Weiter’s value.
He had a better 2015 season than 2016 season (although his 2015 season was shorter)
If he accepted it after 2015, he very well may accept it after 2016.
Last year he was a productive hitter with health concerns, this year he’s coming off of a healthy but forgettable year… kind of adds up to the same thing. I think he’d be less likely to take it this year because he isn’t getting any younger (31? Holy hell, when did he get that old?) but still a pretty good chance he’d end up accepting it for basically the same reasons he took it last year.
There’s no way Weiters gets more then $17MM annually on the open market.
It’s not about surpassing the annual value — it’s about surpassing the total value by enough to outweigh the risk of taking the QO. A lot of fans get really hung up on average annual value, but in the end, it’s the total that matters. Wieters would happily take 4/48 or 3/39 over 1/17, for instance, even if the annual rates are lower in the multi-year deals. Security and stability for a player’s family carries a lot of weight.
I’d add he’s a catcher, playing in his age 31 year. His bat isn’t special at IB or DH. I think he’d live with 3/39,
To add just a little, I’d say it’s also about total career earnings given that a players window to make money is pretty small.
If Ramos were entering the market without having injured his ACL I’d say don’t do it. However, I think with the Ramos injury that Wieters will reject a qualifying offer despite the lackluster overall results because of the weakened competition.
I agree offer it if he accepts and you don’t want to pay him you could find a taker on 1 year given the lackluster options @ catcher
Yes, and he’ll accept again
Please God NO – let Wieters walk. No QO. Pena and Joseph will get better results from O’s starting pitchers.
If Wieters likes being an Oriole so much…wait until end of February to give him a lowball offer.
Meh. I’m kind of on the fence. I thought it was a good idea last year but I don’t really think I’d do it again if I was in charge.
This is coming from a jays fan. I have always liked wieters but the problem I see is if he can’t rip it in Camden yards where else could he?
No.
This way the Mets can try to sign him without giving up a pick for him.
I don’t think he will get a second QO. I also believe a team shouldn’t be allowed to give a player consecutive QO’s. That will probably be a line item in the new working agreement.
Time for the O’s to move on. Wieters has been a nice contributor for Baltimore but they need to pass the torch on to the younger kids like Chance Sisco.
With the offense Baltimore has, they just need a reliable, defensively sound catcher, I say no.
This would be a no-brainer YES if I were GM’ing the O’s.
Wieters put up 1.7 fWAR last season. That might not be superstar level production, but it’s near the league average. There’s a lot of value in a league average player, especially one that’s only under contract for one year.
Almost nothing can go wrong if he accepts the QO. He probably puts up something similar to what he did this year, and you take that and be pretty happy.
On the other hand, he rejects and you get yourself a late-first-rounder.
Win-win in my book.
100% agreed. Plenty of teams will need Matt as a huge upgrade from current situation. Not to mention… The lack of Free Agent talent this off season year! If he accepted, he would be thrown in with so many more talented guys next year and he would be in the background. QO him this year, take the draft pick. Matt and Boras will take the advantage of a weak FA class and he’ll be shopped like a stud
I would. Go ahead and accept, he fills a void. If he walks, take the pick. Meanwhile, make an offer to him, 3/30?