5:00pm: A Tigers source tells Olney (Twitter link) that while they received some calls about Upton last summer, Detroit wasn’t trying to move the outfielder.
9:14am: The Tigers “were ready to move” Justin Upton last season, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (subscription required). The club’s efforts seemed to go beyond merely testing the market or exploring offers, as Olney writes that the Tigers “pushed to” trade Upton and will make an “effort to dump his salary this winter.”
It was just last January that Detroit signed Upton to a six-year, $132.75MM contract, seemingly making him a cornerstone piece for the franchise (though the deal allows Upton to opt out after the 2017 season). His tenure in the Motor City got off to a shaky start, as he posted just a .590 OPS in April and May before recovering for a .862 OPS over the last four months, including a red-hot September. 2016 marked Upton’s first season with an AL team, so it’s possible his early struggles simply reflected some adjustment to pitchers in his new league.
Overall, Upton hit .246/.310/.465 with 31 homers over 626 plate appearances, with a 105 wRC+ that marked a career low over a full season. Between this middling offensive performance and pretty average defensive metrics (-6.7 UZR/150 but +1 Defensive Runs Saved), Upton was only worth 1.4 fWAR, not a great return for a player earning $22.125MM last season.
Upton has a partial no-trade clause in his contract that allows him to block deals to 20 teams, so the Tigers are already limited in their efforts at a swap unless Upton is open to switching teams. As Olney notes, teams looking to add outfield pop this winter could acquire many players earning far less than the $110.625MM still owed to Upton through the 2021 season. Teams probably also aren’t too keen on surrendering much in return for a player who could opt out after just one year, unless Detroit is willing to take a smaller trade return just for the sake of getting Upton’s deal off the books.
It’s pretty rare for a team to almost immediately start shopping a player so soon after signing him to a huge free agent deal, and the very fact that Detroit did so with Upton could have been something of a red flag to other teams. (The Diamondbacks discussed a Zack Greinke trade with the Dodgers last summer, though Arizona was seemingly exploring its options in the wake of a very disappointing season, whereas the Tigers were in the playoff hunt until Game 162.) That said, shopping Upton could be a sign of how creative the Tigers need to be in order to remain competitive while still getting younger and cutting salary.
Olney’s column as a whole explores how the industry perceives the Tigers as willing to listen to offers on anyone (even the likes of Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander), though since the club isn’t at all going into fire-sale mode, a willingness to hear offers doesn’t actually mean Detroit is ready to unload a cornerstone star. There’s also the fact that many of the Tigers’ best players are in their 30’s, still guaranteed large salaries for years to come and also have trade protection in their own contracts, so the market for some of these players could be somewhat restricted. Younger and controllable options like J.D. Martinez (who the Tigers aren’t planning to talk to about an extension) and Jose Iglesias could potentially be more realistic trade chips.
It would be better to hold on to him until the trade deadline and if he has a good year he will opt out anyway
Well the Tigers should probably shop Upton (maybe eat some salary). Besides Upton, the Tigers should basically shop anyone they can get value out of.
Braves dodged a bullet?
The Braves dodged the bullet because they’ve been lying on the floor with a shotgun wound to the chest for sometime now
Still had the worst years of his brother.
Please interpret this, Gogerty. Thank you.
Best chance for Detroit to get out of this one is to hope Upton replicates his season without the slow start. He crushes it in 2017 and opts out.
For the contract he signed he would need a historical season to opt out. Looks like the Tigers are stuck with a very bad contract like many other teams have. Just hope that they can package him for a lesser long contract.
Upton has always been an extremely streaky hitter. When he is on, he is fantastic. When is is not, ugh. When he signed last season a lot of people thought he signed for way too much money and it appeared that Detroit was trying to put together a team they’d hope would win it all before their window started to close. While all hope shouldn’t be given up on Upton (and the Tigers aren’t ready to be written off for 2017 either) there are concerns for sure.
In my opinion, it would probably be best to hope that Justin jumps off to a very torrid streak and the Tigers deal him before the deadline next season.
No matter how good his start, that contract is impossible to trade. All factors (opt out, contract size, etc) go against the Tigers in negotiations. Again, best hope for Detroit is that he crushes it in 2017 and opts out.
The best time to move upton would be during the trade deadline. If he plays well, he’ll opt out making him a 1 year asset. Anyone else you trade when you get a good enough deal, whether during the offseason or during the trade deadline
Last season as in 2016?
Well it was his first season with them , so Yes. I suppose it would have been better to say This season since we are still playing baseball This season.
I don’t see how waiting for the trade deadline would be the best move. While his value isn’t what it could be currently, his good finish might entice a team or two and might convince said teams to hope his play continues into next season. It’ll also be easier to find a trade partner with enough cap space in the offseason rather than at the trade deadline. However, waiting to the deadline could completely kill his value if he struggles again. And if he plays really well, it wouldn’t be given that a team even tries to trade for him, or that the Tigers even try to trade him if they are in a playoff hunt. As mentioned, he could opt out at the end of the year (and probably would highly consider it if he plays well in the first half of the year). Teams would have to weigh the fact that if he plays well to end the year, he’s probably gone at the end of the year (making him a rental essentially) while a poor end of the year could convince him to not opt out. Wouldn’t it be better to get something of value back now then to wait a couple of months hoping he plays well?
How was it his first season with a AL team when he played with the Rangers? Lbvs
Justin Upton has never played with the Rangers. He started his career with the Diamondbacks. He got traded to Atlanta who then later dealt him to San Diego. He then signed with the Tigers in free agency.
typical cards fan always wrong. he never played for the rangers
trade him to St. Louis! Redbirds could use a cornerstone bat with Holliday leaving.
If the Tigers would be willing to eat some money, I wouldn’t mind the Phillies taking a peak.
Aaron Altherr and Jeanmar Gomez for J. Up and 20.6M
I can’t see the tigers doing this. If he ends up having a good season and opting out, you’re essentially paying for upton, while taking on the 4-5M dollar contract of gomez. Aaron Altherr hasn’t hit at all yet. If the tigers are convinced Upton won’t rebound and desperately want to get rid of him, sure, but I think the Tigers could find this type of a trade anytime. I’d rather them just wait to the deadline and hope he plays well so could actually get something for him if they end up eating some money.
Phillies are a good spot for Upton, they need some pop and he will hit 40 plus homers in that park. The Tigers would have to eat 5 million a year or 20 million.
Don’t see Upton as a fit in Philly, unless the Tigers eat a lot more money than that. He’s too streaky, has never lived up to his hype. The Phillies are looking to add players that are good hitters who get on base and have pop. That’s not Upton…he’s a 25 homer guy who strikes out a ton, doesn’t play defense and isn’t going to get better. The best case scenario would be a good season, he opts out, gets a QO and the Phillies get a pick. More likely he remains to collect his millions. Don’t like it.
Before any of us start pontificating on trade ideas, we have to know that 20 team no-trade list! I googled it and couldn’t find anything.
That being said, if the Tigers were smart, they’d give him for free (aka pay $22M) to the team in the worst long-term shape, preferably in the NL or in a hitter-friendly park, in the hopes he’d pad his numbers and opt out after 2017. If he doesn’t opt out, then that team gets age 29-33 Upton at $17M a year, which honestly isn’t that bad, as those are traditional peak age seasons.
Need that 20 team list though!
Paying his first year for free would absolutely not be smart… nearly any team would take that. His contract is still through his “prime” years and one good year for free means a free draft pick and 35HRs…
“There’s also the fact that many of the Tigers’ best players are in their 30’s,still guaranteed large salaries for years to come…”
This is a false narrative that is looked at as common knowledge since it has been said so often.Detroit has only 4 players with big contracts signed after’18,(Cabrera, Verlander, Zimmerman,and Upton). It could be only 3 if Upton opts. out after 2017.Sanchez and Kinsler have team buy outs after ’17.
If Olney is correct, this is an interesting story. Detroit is usually very loyal to their players,especially a new signee. There must have been some clubhouse issues early in the season. Upton is very soft spoken which could have been looked at as aloof. It seems to have been smoothed out later in the year as Maybin got him out of his shell.
Tiger GM, Avila’s “changes are coming” is just a notice that Detroit is not going to go the FA route and will only look at trades as a way to improve for the near future. Their goal to compete for the Central Crown in ’17 is to keep the TV ratings up(they were 3rd best in ’16 behind KC and St.Louis). Their TV contract is up in ’18 so Illich wants to have a big payday as well as a World Series Crown.
Worth noting on Upton:
First half OPS: .670
Second half OPS: .916
Is it really that hard to comprehend almost all players moving teams/leagues start slowly in the first season? I wouldn’t trade him, I’d trade JD and move him back to RF where he’s more comfortable and has better metrics.
Yes, those big contracts are hard to lose, Kinsler is another player that could be traded easily, good contract short term, and a good player. Tigers problably won’t want to trade him.
Upton for Markakis. If J Up opts out, Tigers pay nothing if he doesn’t, kick in some cash.
That’s just a salary dump then.
Illitch can’t get his crown on trades that are salary dumps.
I don’t see Upton going anywhere via trade right now. I think he is playing in Detroit in 17 and the Tigers hope he hits .270 with 30-35 HR and opts out after the season. JD is the one that will be traded this off season. The bigger contract problems they have the names Sanchez, Lowe and Pelfrey attached to them. That’s 30 million to 3 spots that could go to younger controllable players
Not sure how WAR really reflects what a player should be paid. I mean Adam Eaton had a 6 WAR but is someone saying based on his WAR he should be making 22 mil a season?
A player’s WAR isn’t reflected in pay perfectly. Although defense is extremely important, historically, the market doesn’t tend to reward it as much. My reasoning for this is that it is easier to find a player who can field but can’t hit, compared to the vise versa.
That said, when you end up paying a hitter who can’t field to hit and he doesn’t perform up to standards, no one will want to pay him. Not necessarily saying upton can’t hit, but that first half is why nobody would take him.
The guy has had two 250 BA seasons in a row which means pitchers have figured how to get him out, That being said , he does have some assets Power and Speed. He not worth the 22,000,000 he going to be payed, being about 5/6 million too much for a hitter of his type.
I can see the Cardinals taking a change on him , although something tells me that if you move this many times before your 30th birthday their something wrong about character and his will to play hard.
Maybe LA, SF trade for him also .
Hey Giants fans…..what about Upton for Samardzija?
* We get another RH bat to offset our lefty heavy lineup
* Both players make $3-$5 m too much annually (Upton 1 year longer)
* It would free us up to include Parker and or Williamson in any trades (I realize neither has high value)
* We could go after a 4/5 starter in free agency to replace Shark. Then we have Bum, Cueto, Moore and then FA, Blach and Cain to fight it out for last 2 spots
* Upton could feel more at home in NL West.
Thoughts?
The Giants are built around pitching, and have the financial ability to chase that RH slugger they need. Why would they trade an important part of their rotation to pay more money to a disappointing outfielder? Besides, the free-agent market offers more hitter than pitchers this year.
Why would the Tigers do that? It’s a two-way street
The Tigers might do it because;
a. they reportedly want to shed the Upton contract
b. they gave 48 starts last year to Pelfrey and Sanchez both of whom had high WHIPs and high ERAs.
c. they probably wouldn’t have to eat any money or include a prospect in a deal like this.
Samardjiza isn’t that great-not really an important part of the Giants rotation.
He’s their number 3 starter, consistently makes 30+ starts and 200+IP per year. He may not be the star he was briefly made out to be, but a guy who consistently takes the ball is valuable. If the Giants trade him fro Upton who are they going to turn around and sign? Hellickson? Not exactly as good as Samardzija, and not like he’s going to be cheap. Hellickson will probably get close to $50M this year.
Meh……the only FA hitters who make sense are Cespedes and Desmond. Considering the money the Giants need to spend on the pen, I doubt they pursue either one. Maybe Carlos Gomez on a Desmond-style one year revive your career kind of contract.
Hellickson would probably only command $11-$12 a year so he might be as good of an option as Shark. But there are other 4/5 starters who could be had for 2/$25 or something like that.. I think the Giants can feel good about the quality of starts they will get from Bum/Cueto/Moore.
Orioles make sense, they need a corner outfielder and Camden yards will be perfect for him. Have Detroit eat some cash
Ellsbury for Upton and a player to be named later
Yankees wouldn’t do that
Tigers wouldn’t either
Ellsbury: 33 years old, 4 years left, $89.571 million owed, 8.0 WAR over past 3 seasons
Upton: 28 years old, 5 years left, $110.625 million owed, 9.8 WAR over past 3 seasons
In what world is Ellsbury worth as much as Upton, let alone Upton and another player?
The toughest contracts to trade are the one’s for under achievers. Nobody wins.
Another Prince Fielder situation