Some Mariners rumblings, in two separate pieces from Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune…
- Red Sox left-hander Drew Pomeranz is believed to be on the Mariners’ list of rotation trade targets. This presumes, of course, that Boston is actually willing to deal Pomeranz, as Dutton notes that the Sox “sent mixed messages” about the southpaw’s availability during the Winter Meetings. Pomeranz posted a 3.32 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 2.86 K/BB rate over 170 2/3 innings with the Padres and Red Sox last season, though the bulk of his best work came in San Diego. This is just my speculation, but as Jon Heyman reported that the M’s were apparently quite close to dealing Seth Smith to Boston, perhaps Pomeranz was also a part of that proposed trade. (If that was the case, the two teams will have to go back the drawing board, as Boston has since signed Mitch Moreland to address their need for a left-handed bat.)
- Speaking of Smith, Dutton hears from a source that the Rays have shown interest in Smith in the past. The Mariners and Rays have been linked in trade talks this winter, with Seattle reportedly looking at Tampa’s available starting pitchers. Dutton suggests that Drew Smyly could be the likelier fit for the M’s, as the Rays would require a lesser return for Smyly than for Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi. The Mariners and Rays are no strangers to each other, as Dutton notes that the two clubs have made two multi-player deals in the 15 months since Jerry Dipoto became Seattle’s general manager.
- There has been virtually no indication that the Mariners have any interest in signing Jose Bautista, Dutton reports. Bautista’s age, the draft pick compensation tied to his services via the qualifying offer, his injury-plagued 2016 season and subsequent drop in production have combined to create a rather unclear market for the veteran slugger. If Smith was traded for a pitcher, Dutton opines, a veteran bat like Bautista could become more of a possibility for the Mariners. Right now, the M’s are planning to use several inexperienced players (i.e. Ben Gamel, Dan Vogelbach, Mitch Haniger) in regular outfield or first base roles.
Pomeranz for O’Neill
Smyly for Smith Braden Bishop and Joe Rizzo
Just throwing out ideas…
I’d rather keep O’Neil.
I don’t want to see O’Neill go. He’s my favorite prospect. How about Pomeranz for Luiz Gohara and Seth Smith?
I’d say no to both of those trades. No way O’Neil or Gohara go for Pomeranz. I just don’t see Seattle offering enough to get Pomeranz, I wouldn’t, way too many question marks. And I don’t see Boston selling low on him.
Agreed. Boston gave up a top prospect for him less than 6 months ago. They aren’t giving him away for free
Have to look at what the cost for Pomeranz was 6mo ago.. An 18YO kid that sits mid 90’s, touches 100 with control and also throws a 12-6 curve for strikes. Not too many kids at 18 already many scouts think will develop into a front end rotation starter.
don’t think Boston will take less than they gave up. He was rated higher than Kopech in Boston.
Do you think that package is worth it for the Rays to trade Smyly? Smith will drive up a starter’s pitch count, plus decent OBP ang Gohara is our best pitching prospect.
Admittedly prospects is far from an area I know a whole lot about.
Yeah, sure, IF Pomeranz maintained his value. He did not, though. So, his value is much lower than when he was in San Diego. If you think the Sox are getting the equivalent of Espinoza for him, you’re sorely mistaken.
It’s probably safe to say most Red Sox fans did not think Drew Pomeranz was worth Anderson Espinoza at the time of the July 14 trade. If Pomeranz was not worth Baseball America’s 15th-ranked midseason prospect, was the lefthander worth only Tyler O’Neill, whom BA ranked 45th at midseason?
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minor…2SxPS2v1vqS.97
Has Pomeranz’s value dropped with his disclosed medicals, lackluster post-trade performance and diminished duration of team control?
And if Pomeranz’s trade value has dropped since, might Tyler O’Neill perhaps be an overpay at this point?
For what it’s worth, MLB.com Prospect Watch now ranks Espinoza No. 13 and O’Neill No. 60 while John Sickels ranks Espinoza No. 30 and O’Neill No. 77:
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/…ts-end-of-2016
This year O’Neill was the MVP of the Double A Southern League in his age 21 season while Espinoza had a rocky Single A year in his age 18 season:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minor…Ehp6JGGGTSi.97
http://www.baseball-reference.com/re…d=espino005and
I doubt the Red Sox will trade Pomeranz this offseason after swapping him for a highly touted prospect.
At a Tampa Bay website several posters wrote that Tyler O’Neil would be a fair return for lefthander Drew Smyly, who like Drew Pomeranz comes with two years of team control.
http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/14/1…-landing-spots
Scroll toward bottom of comments. Of course, the Rays have a greater need for a righthand-hitting outfielder.
FanGraphs Depth Charts project Smyly with a 2017 WAR of 2.5 and Pomeranz with a 2017 WAR of 2.3:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx…760&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx…426&position=P
I found that interesting because I suspect the Mariners would prefer Smyly to Pomeranz..
As a side note of no relevance, lefthanders Drew Smyly and Drew Pomeranz faced each other in college:
http://www.olemisssports.com/sports/…050810aaa.html
No on Gohara or O’Neill.
I would do the Smyly deal but I am not sure that would be enough.
Agreed, look at the history of southern league MVPs….a pitcher friendly league
Boston would want at a minimum Gohara, Povse, and Moore for Pomeranz,
O’Neil for Pomeranz ain’t happening. Sox are dealing prospects away not trading for them..
Leave Joe Rizzo out of it.
If the M’s trade O’Neil I’m done….
I’m with you. I’m so excited to see him debut for the Ms.
I’d love to see the Sox sell him only because I just hate watching him pitch. A guy his size should just be blowing guys away, but Pomerantz pitches like his body is made out of wood, he’s so stiff and doesn’t use his legs at all. His delivery is just awkward looking.
Out of Bucholtz, Pom., and Erod, at least one of them will go. At first I thought Buch was definitely getting traded, but that would leave the Sox with 4 lefties in the rotation, and I just don’t see that happening
If they traded Bucholtz ,Pomeranz will go to the bullpen !!rotation i guess will be Sale-Porcello-Price-Wright-Erod
I keep hearing the 4 lefties thing and I wonder if it’d be true as pomeranz or erod would have to beat out wright who had a tremendous year prior to that base running injury.
That’s funny isn’t it? They went decades without developing any lefty starters who had success at fenway, other than Bill lee and bruce Hurst. bobby Ojeda and john tudor bombed there, then were basically given away and had good to great seasons. The stadium used to be death to them and now? it’s like who cares.
How much was the pressbox getting resized several decades back, or in lefties minds from the local media constantly yacking of it will probably never be known.
Why do silly people such as you always leave Jon Lester off this kind of list? He is LH, he was fully developed by Boston, and he had loads of success there.
No it doesn’t. Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright with Pomeranz/Bucholtz as the #6 starter/ bullpen.
3 way deal…
CHI Sox send Jose Abreu to SEA
Rays send Brent Honeywell to CHI
Rays send Drew Smyly to SEA
Mariners send
Vogelbach to CHI
Johnny Prospect to CHI
Kyle Lewis to TB
Ariel Miranda to TB
Edwin Diaz to TB
The only team that makes any sense for is TB
Agreed. Don’t like it for the Sox perspective.
I don’t mean that as it not being fair btw. I just think the white sox would be better off trying to get position prospects for Abreu and probably waiting until deadline/next offseason when there are less first base options and that it doesn’t make a ton of sense for Sea to drop Vogs and Diaz from their MLB team to add abreu now when they could either sign someone on the market like EE/Trumbo or one of the (likely) shorter commitments.
Also, I’m pretty sure Johnny Prospect is already being shipped to Mystery Team.
Doesn’t make much sense for the Rays either.
Deal some pitching to get a hitting prospect and a reliever they can flip or replace colome with. I can see how that wouldn’t make sense either though
OMG it would be a ridiculous trade for the Rays. Lewis is years away from anything, Miranda may be a nothingburger (probably is) and Diaz isn’t what they need. You’re going to trade two major league ready starting pitchers for that?
Doesn’t make sense because a big part of the reason the Rays are even considering moving guys like Smyly or Odorizzi is because Honeywell is nearly ready to step into the rotation in their place. No point in moving him in a trade like this, much better off just making it Odorizzi going to Seattle for a bit of a bigger package.
I like Johnny Prospects future…better yet I’d trade for his mother…she’s a savant and can predict the future…thats quite the name she gave her son. Someone get a contract for Sheila Prospect.
That’s a terrible trade idea. Why would we trade our future in the OF and our current closer for Smyly and Abreu? Along with a possible starter who was one of our better pitchers in September?
Just a bad idea.
There is no way the Ms trade away E. Diaz and K. Lewis. Without Diaz we’re missing a great closer and Lewis is our future right fielder. We also don’t need Abreu. We have Valencia for 1b.
Why no mention of Cobb here? If the Rays are moving any one starter I think he’s it.
Also, I’m not buying that the Red Sox are interested in moving Pomeranz, they’ll trade Bucholz if they can but the most likely scenario in my opinion is that they’re set for spring, at least in terms of MLB level starting pitching.
Any trade involving O’Neill, Gohara, or Diaz for a SP feels inefficient to me, this is why I like the idea of Cobb. Big upside for one season, under $5 million, would be fit for a qualifying offer if he returns to 2013-2014 performance, and might be had, I’m guessing, for a more expendable prospect package including two of DJ Peterson, Boog Powell, Dan Altavilla, and Zac Curtis.
I think Cobb and Smyly both could be dealt, but the M’s might be warmer on Smyly than Cobb. Cobb has been mentioned in other articles. Post surgery makes Cobb’s value more of a wild card. Both have good upside and extra risk.
I love seeing that Joey Bats has no suitors at this point in the offseason. His attitude has irked me for years. Then the games he was able to play last year, he was literally stretching his legs between every pitch. He is too big of a liability in my opinion for anybody to throw big bucks at.
Agreed, Jays in general all seem to have crap holier than thou attitudes.. Bats was the worst tho.. Remember when said there would be no Hometown Discount. How about now guy? Wish he would just retire, dude is a horse’s ass..
the max I’d go for Pomeranz – Seth Smith + Gohara
for Smyly – Seth Smith + Andrew Moore
for Archer – Smith + Gohara + Paxton or Smith + O’Neill + Jackson
But if the price comes down to say 3/52 or 4/66 for encarnacion they should jump and find a way to then ship off Valencia or Smith or possibly both
I think those are all pretty fair except I wouldn’t give up Paxton in the Archer deal, it would need to be Smith and even then I don’t know if I would be willing to give all of those prospects up.
archer is 5 years of control at$38 mil. it is going to take more than what landed sale to get him, whether you like it or not.
I agree, I just don’t think that the Ms should trade for an ace with the pitching market where it’s at
Even if they did sign a 1B I think Valencia would be necessary for OF depth.
Would you consider a point of price viability for him as well? Strong buy low buyer’s potential. Some talk of him converting to 1B too.
Pomeranz for King Felix. The Mariners gave up Trumbo for Steve (My Bad) Clevenger….why not?
King Felix sells tickets. The Ms will not trade him for that reason.
I think this would be a win- win trade with Boston sending Drew Pomeranz and Deven Marrero to Seattle for (lhp) Ariel Miranda (rhp) prospect Nick Neidert & (Of) prospect Brayan Hernandez #redsox
This is interesting.
Pomeranz has low trade value because he had a mediocre 2nd half ERA of 4.59 in 13 starts,
What is Buchholz trade value then?? Over the same time period, Buch had a 2.80ERA in 8 starts and 16 games pitched.
Buch’s value is FAAAAAR less than Pomeranz’s because Buch costs $13.5m and Pom is…$4.7m with multiple years left of control. Buch has the most value to BOS because every team knows he’s inconsistent and will be hesitant to trade for a guy making that money who could easily pitch to a 5+ ERA. He could pitch better, but he’s another year older and there are far cheaper back of the rotation options out there.
Pomeranz will be great in our pen….. ?????