Given that he posted a combined 2.07 ERA from 2015-16, right-handed reliever Jeff Manship‘s decision to sign in Korea last week came as a surprise. However, Manship told Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer it was a “no-brainer” to head to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he’ll play for the NC Dinos.
“From what I had heard, a couple of the teams were only interested in minor league deals with spring training invites, and then a couple others were interested on a major league deal, it’s just nothing had happened yet,” said Manship, whom the Indians non-tendered last month.
Manship will make more in Korea than he did from 2009-16 in the majors, Lindbergh writes in a fascinating, highly recommended piece. As Lindbergh points out, Manship’s unappealing advanced statistics overshadowed the superb run prevention he displayed over the past couple seasons, thus leading to tepid MLB interest. In 2016, for instance, his FIP (5.11) was nearly two full runs worse than his ERA (3.12).
“I understand how they calculate [FIP], but sometimes I think at the end of the season … where people are still saying ‘Oh, well his ERA should have been this,’ but it wasn’t that, it was this …there are certain things that I kind of disagree with,” said Manship. “But at the same time, I do realize a lot of those advanced stats actually are great indicators.”
It also didn’t help Manship’s cause this offseason that he doesn’t throw particularly hard, but the Dinos are happy to welcome him. Team analyst Seonnam Lim and scout Steve Park had been eyeing Manship, 32, since his time as a Triple-A starter.
“When we first saw Jeff, we were not at a position where we could even discuss nor dream about scouting him, but Asian teams nowadays tend to pay much bigger money to foreign players, especially during this winter,” commented Lim.
Now for the latest on a couple of Manship’s former major league colleagues:
- After trading second baseman Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers earlier this week, the Rays are poised to shift Brad Miller from first base to the keystone, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The 27-year-old actually has only slightly less big league experience at second than he does at first (37 games versus 39), and moving him will enable the Rays to take advantage of the glut of acceptable first base options left on the open market, notes Topkin.
- Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig‘s demotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City last season “was not a good experience,” he told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Puig acknowledged that he was at fault for it, though, per Plunkett (Twitter links). As Puig looks to rebound in 2017, the 26-year-old has “leaned out” and “is in a great state of mind right now,” manager Dave Roberts informed Doug Padilla of ESPN.com.
Rays should sign Moss, he has the position flexibility to play 1B/OF/DH and will be the easiest to flip if they fail to compete.
Rumor is they prefer a right handed bat.
Why would they want a RH bat? Only Dickerson & Miller bat L and they have a couple of Switch hitters. There are approx. 8 RH hitters on the top of the depth chart.. Carter’s K’s and all or nothing AB’s would magnify the problem with the 2016 Rays. They hit lots of HR’s but scored a small amount of runs.
Dickerson, Ramus and Miller can not hit lefties at all…hence righty bats to platton. I would prefer Napoli over Carter (less K’s)
Yeah but power wise Longoria and Suzuka Jr are the Righthanded power … with Miller if he gets back to those numbers of last year.. so lefty seems more needy. They are facing a strong lefty force in Boston which may be the thinking on the righty thoughts!
Personally, I would sign Moss and Carter. Move Souza into a 4th outfielder type role that plays a bit more than the traditional. Carter can just DH.
Chris Carter would seem a good fit. Longoria, Miller, and Carter make a powerful middle of the order.
Not to mention Rasmus and Dickerson, if they can get back to their better years, and Souza if he can stay of the disabled list.
If Miller can play average or better defense at 2B this move will increase his value quite a bit.
Years ago luddites would mock analytics because ‘they didn’t play he game’ and ‘traditionalists are general managers and nerds aren’t.’
According to this article no general managers are into traditional stats now.
I think there needs to be a healthy balance…advanced analytics is obviously a good tool as far as putting a roster together but I still want my traditional scouting input as well
Amazing to me how many fans do not grasp the platooning concept let alone the analytics craziness applying to baseball. But I know the RedSox toiled for years without DrJames numbers and crashed and burned most years. Three WS titles later changes a lot of minds among the NE fans.
Platooning is almost impossible anymore with 13-man pitching staffs. That leaves three bench players in the AL and four in the NL. and since you can’t platoon with your backup catcher subtract one bench player in each league.
Like I said I believe in analytics and I believe in a good platoon…platooning was made famous by Casey Stengel a long time ago so it’s not like it’s a newer thing as opposed to sabremetrics…all I’m saying is that I wouldn’t value one more than the other, balancing the two as much as possible is the way I’d like to see it done…unless of course you have a manager with foolish pride and he’s unwilling to follow the numbers a majority of the time…hasn’t there been managers that have fought against analytics and either been fired or got their GM fired?
The one line I can’t stand is “Do you ever actually watch the game?” Like yeah, I do and what I see backs up everything the advanced stats tell me.
The way a lot of people talk on here I assume most don’t watch any games. I like most of the advanced stats because I went to college for math, but if you watch enough you know who is carrying teams and who is not.
So you watch every team, every night? I watch baseball every night during the season and I don’t believe it’s possible to keep track of every player and game.
That line is just used by people who don’t understand stats and refuse to believe they say what they do.
See most braves fans about Matt Kemp.
Exactly. I love watching baseball. That doesn’t preclude me wanting to learn as much as I can about it.
What are you even talking about??
“Most Braves fans” think Matt Kemp is an absolute disaster in the field, which he clearly is. The only hope is he loses some weight and becomes at least partially terrible in LF…
Yes, his bat plays up in the line-up, but ” most Braves fans” want him and his atrocious defense never stepping foot in SunTrust Park…
To knowingly take a couple of idiots’ comments, in order to fuel your trolling, and to use that as the majority voice of a fan base is just ignorant…
Advance stats will tell you if a player is going to be good. That is the biggest pile of crap I have heard in a long time. Advance stats said that Hank Conger was going to be a better major league player, than Mike Napoli. How well did that work? Adavance stats said Dallas McPherson was going to a 300 hitter with 30 homers and 100 RBI’s every season. How well did that work out? I could go on and on and on. There is no sure fire way of advanced stats knowing how good a player is going to be.
They show conger has been awful his entire career. And advanced stats do help show what a guys going to be like. If it shows he’s getting lucky, sell high.
A healthy mix is certainly needed. Advanced stats don’t speak to mental lapses and judgment errors especially to their probability. They are getting better. But to see a pitchers stats against the AL east getting shelled. Then moving to the NL and becoming elite receives the typical oh he couldn’t handle the pressure or there are better hitters isn’t true. Happ is an example finds his confidence comes back to the AL and owns it. There isn’t any comparable metric for that. I would like to see a metric to explain the Dodgers inability to win in the post season along with David Price.
Braves fans. Lol. Why go hating on the Braves? I think they will do well this year. Dickey for the CY maybe? Lol
Well it is chesteraarthur, you must consider the source. Can even troll and call out Braves fans in a story that does not mention Atlanta.
advanced stats cannot measure heart or desire. they can’t take into consideration how much one person spends in a gym working out and how much they get in a batting cage. it doesn’t consider how much one is out partying at all hours or is just flat lazy. there are also a lot of late bloomers who work hard and finally “get it.” I think guys like Nelson Cruz and Jake Arrietta are classic examples.
I’m quite curious to see a source that mentioned Conger and Dallas McPherson in the way you said. My god, McPherson last played like 10 years ago.
Conger was a 1st round draft pick. In the minors his projections said that he was going to be a slightly above average defensive catcher. But projected to be above average hitter, and would hit for power. McPherson was a top 50 prospect. And was ranked as the highest rated third baseman in the minors. But Kole Calhoun never projected to be even am average hitter. It did show that he would be a well above average defensive outfielder. Hell the advanced stats will tell you that Trout is not a great defensive Center fielder.
Don’t forget the biggest…Brandon Wood.
Brandon Wood was always a worry by any metric you want to use, because of his terrible swing-and-miss. He was actually pushed because of his “traditional” stats – BA, HR, RBI, remember. (To be fair, Wood was also a very good defensive third baseman). Because this was well before modern analytics almost nobody paid attention to his profound inabilities. McPherson was the exact same way. People were looking at nonsense like RBI when he was running like a 6% walk rate.
Hank Congr was ranked twice in the top 100 prospects in baseball – #79 and #84. As a bat-first catcher. The bat never caught up, like it often doesn’t with catchers. After pitchers, catching prospects have the highest flame-out rate of any prospect class. It’s a tough job.
As far as Trout’s defense being evaluated as “bad” by advanced analytics, that’s just not true. He’s a good defensive player with one very obvious flaw, one any fan watching the game can spot instantly. I’ve watched him play as much as I can and I’m no scout, but the flaw is obvious and profound. Because you’re a fan, I assume you know what I’m talking about, but let me know if you know what his big flaw defensively is. The one that brings his overall defensive numbers down
Traditional stats can’t measure any of that stuff either, Lance. That’s why people call them “intangibles.” Nelson Cruz got some, ahem, assistance in being a late bloomer and Arrieta got out of an organization that wouldn’t let him use his most effective pitch.
The Dodgers’ postseason problems were:
2013 Don Mattingly taking Adrian Gonzalez out of the lineup for Dee Gordon as a pinch runner in the series defining 13 inning disaster and putting in Michael Young at first. Not indefensible, but did not work.
2014 2015 Don Mattingly leaving Kershaw in 1 inning too long and then putting in a mediocre reliever to clean up his mess, instead of Jansen because of SAVEZ, 2 seasons in a row.
2016 Running into the Chicago Cubs and relievers running out of gas after a ridiculously demanding season because most of the rotation could not go 5 innings.
Yet an analytical team acquired Arietta before he developed into an ace.
I understand the advanced stats. Many of the people on this site treat them like they have no margin for error. When you try to determine what batted ball would or would not be a hit with with average fielders, or whether a different catcher would have the umpire calling a strike, it’s a subjective decision. The human element plays large. Then you apply that metric to an actual human. It’s a tool, nothing more, nothing less. It doesn’t make any other stat “worthless”. Those that ONLY use advanced metrics do a disservice to themselves.
Amen.
Not to mention, some pitchers consistently outperform their advanced metrics year in and year out. Admittingly though, it is a very select few pitchers who are able to consistently out perform their peripherals.
From what I have noticed, for example, advanced stats typically tend to view pitchers that consistently pitch to and rely upon weak contact unfavorably. My only guess is they maybe see that type of pitching as an unsustainable path to repeatable success. I’m not exactly sure why that is, but that is one trend I have noticed over the years.
Do not get me wrong, statistics are an excellent tool for measuring past and future success, but, much like you mentioned, they can be flawed and they are not the ONLY correct tool that should be used or relied upon.
If you read FG or BP on a regular basis you’ll notice they have a healthy mix of scouts and stats. As we gain more information via statcast and other batted-ball data, the advanced stats will be refined. That makes sense, right?
As far as the pitchers inducing weak contact, that is a developing story. You’ll not that Houston views this as a market inefficiency, stocking their rotation with guys who don’t throw hard but induce weak contact (McHugh, Keuchel, Fiers). Those guys are outliers – usually guys who post below average hard contact have it normalize the next season. This excludes knuckleballers, of course, who induce weak contact almost always, but there are like two knuckleball pitchers in baseball right now.
But we can use even generic advanced stats like WAR or FIP or xFIP simply as a sorting tool. It’s a way better way to rate guys than something meaningless like BA or RBI or pitcher wins.
This is the type of comment I refer to. If you wish to weigh those stats lightly, that is your choice. But to list BA, RBI and Pitchers wins as meaningless, makes as much sense as listing WAR, FIP or xFip as meaningless. I will take the starting pitcher who can win 15 games a year regularly over the equivalent FIP starting pitcher who hasn’t been able to do that..
Yeah I place value on pitchers wins, except when a guy is pitching for a team that consistently doesn’t score any runs for him…if a guy starts a game and his team wins, there is obvious value there…even if a guy starts and his team wins although the pitcher doesn’t himself get the win it’s still valuable…a lot of guys will fight harder to get a guy a win and if a pitcher is constantly battling and getting wins and/or putting his team into a good place to get a win, that’s huge…even if a guy allows 4 runs in a game but his team also scores 4 runs then although he hasn’t been dominant he has put his team in a place to win and at the end of the day that is all that a starting pitcher wants to accomplish
I mean, a bit of the traditional stats are subjective too. RBIs are based on ur team, a guy can give up 26 runs in 5 IP and get a win if his team scored 27.. saves too.
Advanced metrics are based more on the skill on display rather than the result.
I watched a game a couple years ago in which Tony Sipp threw one pitch and got the win. There have been a couple instances in baseball history in which a pitcher has not thrown a pitch and gotten a win.
I agree that W’s for RELIEF pitchers is rather random. I disagree with those that think it is random for starters. Sure, there are outliers, like every stat. A few W’s will go to starters in high scoring games, like 15-11 scores. A few L’s will go to starters in 1-0 games. I find these more telling. Some starters just have the ability to outpitch their competition. But if you look for starters that produce W’s on a regular basis, you will find that it is a very small group. That is not random. FIP is more useful once you get past that group,
Anthony Young, in the year he went 1-16, was a far better pitcher than Willie Blair in the year Blair went 16-8. Pitcher wins are meaningless, even for starters. Would you rather have Chris Archer’s 2016 or Willie Blair’s 1997. You know where to find the numbers.
I’m surprised Nick Franklin isn’t brought up to play second for the Rays.
they want him in a utility role.
It’s interesting how Manship took matters in his own hands, and how asian teams will be paying more. Alot of MLB teams need bullpen help, and let these fringy guys hang out there all offseason until just before spring training to sign them at a cheap price. They might have to step it up or lose helpful bullpen pieces. I think there’s a sense by the GM’s that there’s always some warm body to plug in.
This is sort of why minor leaguers are making a lot of noise about being paid better. When you’re in AAA making 30k a year, hoping for a call-up, and the Korean or Japanese leagues are guaranteeing millions, of course you’re going to chase the money. Baseball careers are short.
If the rays could sign some buy low options like moss or carter, they could compete for the east with the rotation they have.
I like the sound of that, but it is going to be hard competing against Boston this year.
It’s good that people are having a healthy discussion on this. I lean more towards advanced stats but will also look at the other ones. I just ask can people stop using batting average as the end all offensive stat, it’s honestly so overrated.
But it’s not.
You need to hit the ball a very large percentage of the time to generate any movement. You do not need to safely hit the ball all the time. But generally it is prudent to be safe so the runners can advance more then 1 base and u are now a base runner capable of scoring
As a former (get the digs in) poker player and someone who loves math. Advanced stats are a way of guessing a more likely future outcome.
Doesn’t predict anything.
I can start with AA vs any random 2 cards that shoved all in
Your advanced stats scream I MUST call under any circumstances but I DO NOT win every time.
They will show if I run the hand 100 times I’m the heavy favorite to win the vast majority.
But you don’t get to run it 100 times. You only get 1 run. And math don’t give 2 f**ks if you’re supposed to win. Dude might spike quads off the flop and leave u at less then 1% to runner the remaining 2 aces.
You could be a LHP hitting monster with a 3-0 count and guys on 2nd and 3rd. The MVP is on deck so you know you’re getting a fastball. The advanced stats say you crush fastballs on 3-0 and your average and slugging goes up 50% vs lefties
Everyone runs to their favorite betting site and throws money on the batter to at least get 1 run. Possibly a hit with a few RBIs. Maybe even throw out a plus 1000 bet on a HR
Then you get a weak grounder to 2nd cause the HUMAN got too excited over swung topped the ball and game over
The advanced stats don’t predict the future.
Just put u in a better spot as a coach / GM to make an educated guess as to what the best options are
Advanced stats to judge the potential return of players are guides to probabilities as to outcomes, not certainties. You can understand why FO’s use them.
Yep. Manship had an amazing 2015, but in 2016, his walk doubled and his hr/fb rate quadrupled. Giving up a bunch of walks and jacks probably isn’t a combo that indicates future success.
Yet, it was not his norm (which he is likely to return to) and even pitching below his norm, he was successful. How do the statistics ignore that?
Which part wasn’t the norm? The career lows in walk rate and HR/FB rate in 2015? Or how about the career low in BABIP of .192 (100 points less than his total BABIP), with a career high strand rate of 91.2%? Or the numbers in 2016 which were worse, but still not as bad as his career rates? He had a lot of things go really, really right in his amazing 2015. Some of those things went less right in 2016, but still went well. I think it’s fair if an FO says that they don’t think the stars will align to the 2015 degree again, thus they toss it out when trying to estimate future performance.
FIP is a fundamentally flawed stat and I’m not sure why teams would base their free agent decisions on it. I don’t know anything about Manship but I do know FIP is not the way to figure out if he’s good or not.
Using FIP in this way effectively assumes any pitcher outperforming the league average BABIP is lucky, and it assumes all fly balls are identical. Both assumptions are clearly incorrect.
For the most part it’s good, and yes there is outliers. Guys who rely on weak contact always have high fip’s, like Marco Estrada. For the vast majority though it is a reliable stat
When you have that many outliers they aren’t really outliers anymore. There’s at least one or two on every team. That’s like 15% of the dataset.
FIP is good for comparing two seasons from the same pitcher… e.g: seeing how well Estrada pitched compared to Estrada’s previous seasons. ‘Cause Estrada’s affinity for contact isn’t really going to change from one year to another.
But you take a big risk using it to evaluate pitchers compared to other pitchers.
I don’t think roster decision makers are logging into fangraphs and citing their stats as reasons for not paying a guy. They have their own analytical departments with their own metrics, ones they likely don’t want available to rival teams.
Yeah but if you’re the Cardinals you make it available to yourself lol
The rays should sign Mike Napol
Bill James left Brian Kenny speechless when he stated that advanced metrics could NOT explain why some teams win and others do not. James stated that he was working on a way to measure how certain players effect the performance of other players on the team. We all know that starters that make every start and pitch deep into games save the bull pen and have positive effects on the staff Wins & ERA beyond their own numbers.