The Dodgers have finally found their next second baseman after a rumor-filled offseason, officially striking a deal with the Rays to acquire Logan Forsythe. Prized young righty Jose De Leon is heading to Tampa Bay in return in the 1-for-1 swap.
Los Angeles had, of course, long been said to be dangling De Leon as a headliner in talks with the Twins on Brian Dozier, with Minnesota holding out for more. The lack of progress in L.A.’s pursuit of Dozier seems to have spurred a renewed effort to look at alternatives. It has long been clear that the Dodgers wished to acquire a right-handed-hitting veteran to man second base, and it now seems that they’ve found their man.
Forsythe, who just turned 30, took off in the 2015 season and largely followed that up with a quality effort last year. All told, he owns a .273/.347/.444 batting line with 37 home runs in 1,182 plate appearances over the past two campaigns. Forsythe has typically rated as a solid fielder and baserunner, though Defensive Runs Saved was particularly fond (+8 runs) of his glovework in 2015. There’s added appeal in the fact that Forsythe can also play third, the corner outfield, and even shortstop in a pinch.
Those numbers dwarf Forsythe’s output over the prior four campaigns, though he did enjoy a productive 2012. In particular, his power surge has added a new element to his game. So long as he can keep that up, he figures to remain a solid regular over the final two years of his deal.
That contract, which the Rays wisely signed with Forsythe after his breakout 2015 season, promises him just $5.75MM for 2017. It also comes with an affordable option for 2018. The option price started at $8.5MM, but has already risen to $9MM based on escalators. It can moved another $1.5MM northward if Forsythe accumulates enough plate appearances. There’s a $1MM buyout, though that seems unlikely to be required.
[RELATED: Updated Dodgers & Rays Depth Charts]
For the Rays, this certainly looks to be a situation where the team saw an opportunity it couldn’t pass up. The organization has signed several veteran free agents this winter and obviously intends to compete. With Forsythe departing, players such as Nick Franklin, Tim Beckham, and perhaps Brad Miller appear to represent the top options at second for Tampa Bay, which certainly could look for an outside addition.
That the Rays believe in De Leon is further reflected in the fact that the organization already dealt away from its rotation depth in two notable recent trades (parting with Matt Moore and Drew Smyly). It’s certainly conceivable that De Leon or another starter could be moved in another swap, or the organization can enjoy a healthy rotation mix full of controllable, affordable arms.
The 24-year-old De Leon does indeed seem to have a bright future ahead of him. After ranking as a top-thirty prospect leaguewide entering the 2016 season, he battled through some injuries to earn his major league debut. Though he wasn’t terribly impressive in four MLB outings, De Leon laid waste to Triple-A hitters with 86 1/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with 11.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.
There is some debate as to just how high a ceiling De Leon possesses, and his health and durability are still open questions, though there’s little doubt he’s expected to provide significant value in the near and long term. Parting with six years of control over the promising hurler no doubt represents a heavy price to pay, but Los Angeles clearly feels confident in the quality of its other young arms.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported that a deal was agreed to pending medical review (via Twitter). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the deal was done and that De Leon would be the return (via Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Great news! Gotta see what we are sending but I am happy we are getting this guy. After this, I wonder if they’ll focus on the bullpen? Or are they going into the season with the arms they have?
I’ve been hoping they would add a few vets to the bullpen mix, preferably a couple guys with closing/playoff experience…
I completely agree with you mcdusty. I have been hoping the same. I love this trade even though I really wanted to see what DeLeon could do with a full season in the bigs but I get this trade, I feel like we needed to get a solid second baseman who was fairly young. Plus we got to keep our stud 1st baseman in the minors who will one day take over for A-Gon. I think this is a great trade. Let’s get s bullpen arm, at least one and then I will fill very confident with this club. We still could make a trade before spring training or sign someone so I’m crossing my fingers but if we do not I am ok with that. I was actually hoping to bring back Blanton because he was very solid over the year but burned out in the playoffs and that was from being very over used.
Yeah Blanton wouldn’t be a bad guy to re-sign along with JP Howell, if the price is right of course…I’m kind of wondering what Holland or Sergio Romo are looking for because I wouldn’t mind adding someone like them with closing/postseason credentials…before Neftali Feliz signed with the Brewers I thought there could be a fit there as well…perhaps the FO intends on looking at some of these MiLB starters that are getting older and giving them a chance to win a spot in the pen…either way I’m pumped up and can’t wait for pitchers and catchers to report, which means baseball is around the corner! Go Dodgers!
Hayoooo!!! I wonder what we sent in return to make this happen…
De leon
What an idiotic move by the Rays. Depressing
You say that before seeing the return?
A team that should rebuild is rebuilding? What a bunch of idiots..
Obviously the correct move would’ve been to go all-in.
They should not starts rebuilding… Have you even looked at their roster? They have a bunch of win now pieces plus impact prospects that are close to the Majors and could actually make a run at a wild card.
They have a bunch of fringe win now pieces, a few good pitchers with some question marks and Longo/KK. They are barely the fourth most talented team in their division
They are projected to finish with mid 80s wins… That’s borderline playoffs
The Royals were projected a 75 wins in 2015 but won the World Series. I wouldn’t read much into fangraphs.
Projections take unforeseen things out of it though. They’re typically right but there obviously will be outliers
Barely the fourth best? Who are they better than? They are easily the last place team again.
Yankees rotation is gross, and they are booking solely on Sanchez, Judge, Bird and Didi actually hitting
Yeah because Sanchez, Bird, Didi have never hit at the ML level…
If you’re going to be a homer, at least be good at it.
I agree the projections, as well as various true W-L metrics, like them, but if they go for it this year, they get nothing or far less than optimal value out of expiring contracts and may end up in a deep hole for the future. That’s a lot to risk to bet on fringe playoff pieces.
I’m a Phillies fan..
Sanchez hit stupidly well for a month, and Bird again.. hit well for a single MLB month. Didi was below average last year even though he wacked 20 HRs.
Tampa always have has good playera then they trade for prospects there not going anywhere till they get a Stadium in the Tampa área then they will draw more fans then they will compete
Every time I see your posts I can’t stop laughing at how outrageous they’re. You actually think 20 HRs, .276 BA and 70 RBIs is BELOW AVERAGE. LOL
Didi was not below average bud….what are you talking about.
Not a .300 hitter but more than adequate for the defense he brought to the table.
He meant below average hitter, I assume. 98 wrc+.is below average.
All of you have no idea what the hell youre talking about. This team is easily more talented than New York and Baltimore and almost the jays.
Gregorius is below average offensivly, maybe not among SS, but overall he is. Brixton seems to be one of the more logical commenters on here too fyi
deleon is ML ready. they traded smyly for mallex and now forsythe foe deleon.
net value is close to equal given they have 6 years of both de leon and mallex
fangraphs had them at 82. but more importantly, behind the yanks, jays, and bosox.
you want to bank on not being mediocre for 2 years then suck once their fringy players get old/become free agents (and a weaker farm)? or get better over the next 5 years.
small market teams cant afford to get old.
you realize if you aggregatw the top 15 prospects performance over the top 15 signed free agents, the prospects destroy the free agents in not only WAR/$, but absolute WAR, all star appearances, awards, and even traditional stats right?
a players best years are 23-29, which are also their first years.
Gregorious had a 98 wRC+ which is below league average But it is above the average for a SS which is 92.
Bold prediction kc38. Do you know how bad the Rays were last year compared to all those teams?
AL East Standings
Boston – 93-69
Baltimore – 89-73
Toronto- 89-73
NY – 84-78
TB – 68-84
I’m aware that was last year and this upcoming year will be this year, but the Rays were terrible last year and that was in large part because of their horrible offense which just got much worse (though I still like the trade for them). The only team in the division I think the Rays MAY be better than next year is the Yankees, though it may even take luck to pass them too.
Add Wilson Ramos Colby rasmus a full season of a hitting Matt Duffy and likely gonna add either Carter or Napoli and it’s possible they still flip a starter for young offense. And the pitching is so deep and the bullpen will be much improved. Without forsythe yes we take a hit but we have Willy Adames whose the 19th best prospect in the game ready for late this year or next year to fill in for him.
Hey I like the moves your team is making, don’t get me wrong. Some vets on there and young kids, but I just don’t think they are close to contending
Ramos had a career year last year that ended in a season ending injury and is likely not going to repeat that performance again. Though he’s certainly an upgrade on every catcher the Rays had out there last year. I don’t have a clue what to expect out of Matt Duffy. Had a great rookie season but struggled last year (though of course that was due to his bad Achilles).
Carter or Napoli would be a good addition too. The team is talented, no doubt, I just think they’re not at the .500 mark yet. But who knows, games aren’t won on paper.
Uh, don’t count on much production from Colby dude.
Wasn’t but thanks for the input. It’s making a team deeper. And he’s not a terrible bench option or fielding. Wasn’t calling him a superstar
You’re an idiot if you think this team is rebuilding. Forsythe was our second best player and we trade him for a guy who we already have a bunch of just like him. We have a never ending string of prospects and no proven players. Idc if the Return was Urias. We have no reliable grinding batters besides longoria. Stupid
To be honest a team like the Rays are always kind of rebuilding…with a limited payroll they have to be creative and opportunistic when it comes to shaping their roster…they don’t have an awful team, but they’re also definitely on the bottom half of the AL IMO
I agree and it’s very difficult to watch and endure as a Rays fan. We have to be so opportunistic that we can’t have put a team out there to make a run because We have to trade somebody because we can’t afford them or a opportunity is too good. We are constantly building players to trade them off. We are literally like a major leagues farm system we take them young build them then trade for more young and repeat. We needed someone like forsythe for the grit and knowledge and experience if you wanna make a push
if you built teams of the top 15 free agents each year, and i built teams of the top 15 prospects each year, my team would smoke yours.
jusy because you dont know players, doesnt mean they arent good. forsythe is 30. thats the beginning of decline for most guys
dude you dont want a bunch of resigned players. you want a players first 6 years and then let them go
or do you wish you still had Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Matt Garza, James Shields, and Carlos Pena?
They would not smoke mine. Put them in a playoff atmosphere and never been there before they have no experience or calmness about it. We have NO experience outside of longo you’ll never win a World Series with a bunch of kids
yes they would. statistically, the first 6 years of the top 15 prospects destroy the contract years for free agents.
“playoff atmosphere”? you realize how young the cubs are right? or the giants core was. players generly reach free agency in their 30s, thats also when they decline.
why cant a prospect be a “grinder”? ill take Kris Bryant over any “grinder”.
your world series team was super young. you dont ger players in their mid 20s unless you first had them in your farm.
Guys you want to solve the Rays issues 1 get a new venue, the Trop totally sucks and 2 get a mgr that knows what the hell he is doing and not a lip man for mgmt
You don’t even know what they got back and you have this type of reaction? Really?
Based on history the Rays will get nada… just take a look at the Price trade…
They got Smyly and Adames for Price what are you talking about?
And didn’t they flip Smyly for someone else recently?
You mean like that time the Rays traded Alex Torres and Jesse Hahn for Logan Forsythe, Brad Boxberger, Matt Andriese, and others?
Not necessarily. Grab De Leon plus another piece, then maybe trade another P for a plus hitter. Could work.
Really hoping its De Leon
It is
I agree! How will they win a World Series this year without Forsythe? Stupid Rays and their stupid baseball moves SMH
not sure they could win one with forsythe. this move makes them better 2017-2022. keeping forsythe, youre praying for wild card and then sucking for 3 years
I know bud, just joining the madness
Lol. Are you sure about that ?
Not idiotic a good move for both parties .
No! Come on Tampa… Really thought they could compete for a Wild Card this year. First Smyly now Forsythe… Better be getting quality MLB talent back
It’s going to be prospects.
Better not be
Or else? Lol chill DeLeon is good. Be happy
It’s *always* prospects for MLB talent. The number of prospect-for-prospect and MLB-for-MLB trades are vanishingly small. And six years of JDL is going to be good for them.
I meant MLB ready. De Leon certainly qualifies.
Big league talent for big league talent is pretty common I would say.
Ah, that makes more sense. JDL could and should see significant action this year.
Not particularly. It happens, but the vast majority is prospects for MLB players. Challenge-trades are pretty rare.
Wild Card would’ve been a pretty tall order but with the moves they’re making it has gotten a little too tall IMO
I quite doubt the difference between winning the WC and not is going to be Logan Forsythe. He’s a good player but not a great one.
hes as good as dozier…
I hate losing Logan…. such an amazing pro! Lord knows it’s more than likely a gift between BFFs which means the Rays aren’t getting anything of major league value!
Don’t know your work enough to know if you’re trolling.
Logan was great for the Rays, and it’s hard to see him go, but I like this for the Rays on many levels.
1. They have a solid 2b platoon available with younger guys (Franklin + Beckham)
2. They have a lot of middle infield talent coming soon with Adames + Robertson.
3. Allows Brad Miller to move to 2B if they find 1B help or bring up Gillaspie.
4. Forsythe is getting expensive for them (7.5 M with 8.5 M option next year) and is getting older too.
5. Market seems strong and they can rebuild a bit without having to tear it down.
Love it… pending what they get back, of course 🙂
agreed. as much as it hurts to lose a consummate professional like Forsythe, this is probably as good a time to do this as any…You Dodgers are getting an amazing all around player. he may not bust out insane numbers but he is CONSISTENT. and a pro. gonna miss him.
Forsythe is no Dozier.
They’re actually fairly similar
Dude you can’t say that on this site, most people here are certain that Dozier is the next Joe Morgan
Facts are facts, over the last two years, WAR and OPS+ are basically the same
Not too shabby to get him for a lesser price than Dozier would’ve cost either…I hate to see DeLeon go but being able to keep the other guys is a plus for sure
In my opinion Dozier is just a 25 homerun hitter. He hit most of his homers in late august and September while it diddnt really matter what he did at all for his team and from what I saw, most of them were barely getting out the left field line. So Dozier is probally better than Forthys, but not by much.
People’s heads are exploding right now! I can’t believe you have the audacity to question Dozier’s prowess and command for an ultimate package of top prospects
A package of top prospects? I don’t know. But Dozier is better than Forsythe and LA got him straight up for DeLeon. That means Dozier is worth DeLeon plus.
You’re acting as if dozier is trash though
Dozier would’ve been a bigger impact acquisition than Forsythe…I’m just joking around because in all the other Dozier posts it seemed like everyone was saying that DeLeon wasn’t even close and that the Dodgers would need to attach the remnants of their farm system to him in order to get Dozier
It means that the Twins valued Dozier for DeLeon , it doesn’t mean he’s worth that in reality.
But, hey, let’s look at the alternative facts…
Dozier is the next Joe Morgan? Grrrrreat….all we need is another arrogant full of himself broadcaster.
Forsythe doesn’t have the gaudy power numbers, but I think everyone expects that to come back down to earth for Dozier. Not to mention that he would lose all the wallscraper homeruns when moving to LA.
Forsythe is second rate player, he does nothing to move the needle for the Dodgers. Nothing!!!
Second base* He is a second base player.
I saw a map with Dozier HR with Dodgers stadium and all but like 6 or 9 woulda been out there.
Didn’t the twins de leon plus other prospects for dozier? I think the rays won this trade, De Leon has potential to be an ace
There’s plenty of people on here that disagree with you on that…apparently he only projects as a middle of the rotation guy and his WAR isn’t that exciting…I personally think he has the potential to be a 1-2 on a staff someday so I think they Rays did well to turn in a 30 yo 2B that was getting out of their price range for a nice prospect
deloen is a mid rotation starter fromeverything i have saw
A mid rotation starter where he can go replace Smyly
Well we’ve traded a promising young SP for a 2B before and I’m sure that the Rays are hoping they can get as lucky as the Expos did when they sent us Delino DeShields for Pedro Martinez
I think that’s a pretty good haul for two years of a good but not spectacular 2B. If JDL stays mid-rotation for six years of control, that’s worth a ton (caveat: prospects are always a gamble).
Seems like a good deal for both teams.
What a fantastic dig into the history books mcdusty!
I didn’t have to dig far, it’s still right at the surface and it still hurts lol
Minor league WAR…..not something id put a lot of faith in.
That’s one really good mid rotation starter
prospects as good as deleon actually arent as much of a gamble. go look up top rated prospects over the last 10 years that were in the upper minors, very few failures.
they actually fail at a lower rate than top 15 free agents.
Forsythe is great anyway. He plays good defense, and is an above average hitter. Not to mention he’s versatile. Good player and a good return for the rays as well
Last 2 years:
.273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
.252/.323/.495. 8.9 WAR total
which one is which?
Last year
R RBI SB OPS Fielding
76 52 6 .778 .981
104 99 18 .886 .989
Wich one is which?
Nor is he close to Kinsler. Dodgers settled.
Dodgers decided not not pay for the top talent on the market.
Again…
I guess you can kinda make sense of it if you consider them “paying” equates to them giving up prospects… but I’m quite sure he has no clue.
Huh? Forsythe is pretty much just as good as Dozier. Why overpay for Dozier when you can Forsythe for less?
Much different level, truly no comparison.
Last 2 years:
.273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
.252/.323/.495. 8.9 WAR total
which is which? oh, and Dozier gets all his value from power and last year. doubt he jacks as many in dodger stadium
Why is everyone talking like Target field is a band box? It plays big and is not friendly to the long ball. Doubles are another story.
Not to be insulting but people who don’t live on the West Coast don’t fully understand the daily marine layer that hitters have to deal with in order to hit easy home runs. It won’t cut the totals in half but it is real. Then again Justin Turner has learned to hit with a certain spin that helps cut through the nighttime thickness.
What 2B on the market is top talent? Dozier is very comparable to forsythe
Read a stat sheet however you want, evaluators would not agree.
Id take forsythe over dozier anyday
You would take an older player who can’t hit as well, field as well, or run as well, who doesn’t have near the power and who is owed more money? OK, we can now ignore everything you post from now on. Good to know. Saves us time.
they are both going into their age 30 season. forsythe has 1 year plus an option so hes actually cheaper and, especially to LAD, the $ difference is negligible. also
Last 2 years:
.273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
.252/.323/.495. 8.9 WAR total
by the way, dozier hit ,.236/.307/.444 in 2015. so hes pretty much banking on 1 elite year. good luck
DeLeon! Noooo!!! Well at least we have a solid right handed hitting 2B…he’s no Dozier but at least we didn’t have to give up multiple prospects
Fangraphs has the Rays at 18th in projected WAR, i don’t see them making the playoffs, but anything is possible. They do have good pitching!
Lucky dodgers. Don’t know what the Rays are doing. They were finally going to be a healthy team coming into a year and then they start to tear down? They got good rotation and a capable lineup. They trade a controllable second baseman for a guy who hasn’t thrown over a 120 innings.
Forsythe is not controllable he only has 2 years left.
which means he is controllable for 2 years, as opposed to playing out his option.
good to see logan gone from the AL east. he used to kill the jays !!!! now i can watch the new logan movie in peace when it comes out
Cubs need to trade with rays and get one of their young starters
No way I’m waiting for the news to break that Archer is also coming to the Dodgers, the Cubs need to stay out of my dreams lol
Rays got Forsythe almost three years ago to the day
De Leon was too much!!! I was hoping to draft him this year and I fear he will be AAA bound.
draft him?
Wow…. We better not be giving up DeLeon for him. We should have just kept Kendrick if we weren’t going to get Kinsler or Dozier
Last 2 years:
.273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
.252/.323/.495. 8.9 WAR total
can you tell which is which?
this is great, all those delusional dodgers fans who thought De Leon was worth Dozier+ (on one of the most affordable contracts in baseball) get a reality check
From what I read, nobody thought he was worth Dozier plus, it was just trying to determine what other pieces the Dodgers should send with DeLeon to get Dozier…
lots of people in MN where saying there was no plus in the dodgers offer
The Twins front office attempted to create rumor of Cardinal/Giant etc. interest to influence the Dodgers. They almost certainly lied about the ‘straight up’ offer too.
No way would the Dodgers refuse that unless the other prospect was significant. Bellinger, Alvarez, and Verdugo absolutely would not be in a Dozier deal.
There were tons on here who were saying De Leon and Stewart should have been enough for Dozier
De Leon and Stewart is more than enough for Dozier… That’s why the Dodgers turned that down.
And now the twins can hold on to dozier and continue to be miserable. Yay! Win!…oh wait.
seems they overplayed their hand, better hope for some contender developing a need at 2b and continued performance from dozier.
He can regress and still be worth more than De Leon’s bum shoulder and stewart with his extra year of team control and ridiculously affordable contract
For someone to be valued highly, there needs to be a market for them. How many contenders need a 2b right now? Thus….they need to hope a contender develops a need so there is some sort of market for him. i get it, you’re a twins homer. From an objective point of view, this doesn’t seem a particularly great situation for the twins to market dozier.
Was said all along by Twins FO that they fully expected Dozier to be on the team in 2017 unless they got an off they couldn’t refuse. Which meant DeLeon alone was not gonna net Dozier.
You don’t trade someone for less than they are worth just for the sake of making a trade, spoiled dodgers fans don’t seem to get that, Twins weren’t going to trade him unless there was a package that was worth it.
Then they hold onto him and have him produce for a team that sucks and risk him walking for nothing. For a team like the twins, they can’t afford to have an asset leave for nothing.
He is under team control through 2018 on an extremely affordable contract and they had no intention of trading him yet unless they got a good offer. They did not get a good offer. De Leon’s shoulder is just as much of a risk as letting Dozier stay and waiting for a better package. He will get a better package even if he regresses. The only people who wanted to De Leon/Stewart for Dozier are Dodgers fans
You continue to ignore the point that there needs to be someone that needs him for him to have more value. Keep putting your fingers in your ears though. i’m sure he’ll get a better package if he regresses and has less team control. That makes total sense.
That does not necessarily mean you deal a player just because someone comes calling with an offer you dont find to your liking. Twins didn’t want to deal him that badly at this point, and the Dodgers didnt need him that badly. A decent hitting 2B will find a market at some point.
And that market will pay better than DeLeon? Color me skeptical
Bum shoulder??? Because it got sore? OK…
Yeah it will, Rental relievers at the deadline get better packages than that.
Compared to the winning Dodgers? When was 1988?
De Leon was on the block for a reason. The Twins saw that.
Reliever =/= 2b. There was a market for them, there isn’t for 2b. Continue being dense, it’s actually kind of comical.
And the Dodgers can continue to miss out on making the World Series by just a little bit because they wouldn’t give up a prospect or two to get a guy that could put them over the top. So sad. A $300 million payroll but just one or two players short of being good enough. Will it be the Cardinals, the Cubs, the Mets, or the Nationals that knock the Dodgers out of the playoffs this year?
I would rather at least contend year after year.The Dodgers will get there
Not while this FO is in charge. They will always be the expensive also-rans.
until dozier hits like 2015 again (.236/.307/.444)
Last 2 years:
.273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
.252/.323/.495. 8.9 WAR total
which one “puts you over the top”? the guy dependent on the HR moving to dodger stadium who hit .236 in 2015?
You’re a fan of the saddest excuse of a baseball team in the league, I’ll take the Dodgers playing playoff baseball any day over that dumpster fire down south
Dozier+? Who else were the Twins meant to throw in?
Unless you mean De Leon+, which doesn’t make sense either – because that’s what the Twins were asking for. It was the + that they couldn’t agree on.
You might need to be a bit clearer before you hurl stones.
Or aim better, at least.
exactly the Dodgers were offering de Leon and not much the twins wanted a second a major piece I have ever wanted to give in and the deal didn’t happen fine for both sides
Forsythe and dozier are viewed very similar. If dodgers were delousional why did the rays take de leon straight up?
Maybe viewed similarly by baseless statements but not statistically
Dude several AL executives view forsythe as a better all around player according to a reported tweet. Rather trade de leon straight up for him then add alverez and get dozier. Your preception of dodgers fans being delousional is horrible. We just didnt think dozier was worth 2 of our top tier prospects. The trade they made with tampa is far better then what dozier would have cost
Find the tweet and post it. No one believes that Forsythe is anywhere near as good or as valuable as Dozier. Dozier is without question better on defense and on the basepaths and he has an OPS 160 points higher and nearly 200 points higher against LHP than Forsythe. To make it even more ridiculous, Forsythe is a year older meaning he is more likely to start regressing and will cost the Dodgers more money than Dozier.
Last 2 years:
.273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
.252/.323/.495. 8.9 WAR total
yea, not similar at all…
both going into age 30 season with 2 cheap years left as well.
It’s pretty sad that you have to worry about the Dodgers because your team has nothing exciting to discuss
They’re both 30 next year and Forsythe is 500K more total. Dozier isn’t repeating his season last year so when he falls back in line with what he’s done previously then the WAR, OPS+, etc all favor Forsythe. He’s a better all-around hitter, gets on base more, plays better defense (yes, he does) than Dozier. He still brings 15-20HR power with a bit of speed. But if you want the extra 10-12HR and 10SB from Dozier then go for it but that doesn’t automatically make him better
David vassegh twitter. Just google it. Dont be depressed padres got fleeced when they traded boxberger and forsythe
yeah zero Dodgers fans thought De Leon was worth Dozier +
So do they sign Carter and shift Miller to 2B?
Good deal for everyone, I think.
A good young pitching prospect – MLB-ready, for 2 years of an established infielder with pop, good D and solid baserunning. And being right handed, he had added benefit/value to the Dodgers that he may not have elsewhere.
The Twins just lost their biggest suitor for Dozier. I hope they really are happy taking a risk and hoping another market develops mid-season.
im glad the twins didnt make this deal deloen straight up. for dozier dozier much more pop way better on the bases and a average defender
Can’t wait for that early season slump to plummet doziers trade value
why would it matter they arnt going to trade him at the break either way unless they are blown away and deloen is far from blowing anyone away
dozier has 1 elite year that was entirely dependent on hitting HR. put him in dodger stadium + regression and that goes away.
2 of the last 3 seasons he has been a 5 war player
It a pretty great trade. I hope DeLeon absolutely shoves and the twins regret it lol jk. But honestly I hope DeLeon is nails. I really like Forsythe.
Yeah I wish DeLeon the best I was hopeful of how he’d turn out for us but it’s good move for the Dodgers, we needed a guy to play the keystone and hit lefties well
It’s a good compromise for the Dodgers. Dozier is the better player, but Forsythe isn’t far off. The salaries are similar over the next two years and Forsythe could be had with one top prospect. A little nervous that Forsythe slipped noticeably last season. Hopefully for LA it’s not a trend.
The better player, maybe in another lineup. The Dodgers needed a RH table-setter for the top of the order. Forsythe is that player, or at least he can be. Dozier would be another middle-order power bat in a team already overloaded with them.
Dozier’s on base percentage was higher than Forsythe’s last season
And Forsythe is higher career wise. Your point being?
Was also a career year for Dozier that’s unlikely to occur again. I like our chances with Forsythe.
And Forsythe already had his career year in 2015 and it wasn’t nearly as good as Dozier was last year.
That calling Forsythe a better table setter is completely arbitrary and baseless
How is Forsythe the better player? Both guys hit in the .260’s last season, but Dozier had the better OBP & more power…
Last 2 years:
.273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
.252/.323/.495. 8.9 WAR total
in 2015 dozier hit like .236/.307/.444
forsythe has been more consistent at the current level
Forsythe is going into his age 30 season, a year older than Dozier. Very good chance that he will decline. After they turn 30 players start declining at a predictable rate of 5+% per season. He is still a good player, just nowhere near the level of Dozier.
Do you have a Dozier blow up doll in your closet?
isnt that what they offered the twins 1 for 1? glad the twins didnt do it id rather have dozier over forsythe. dozier much more power, better baserunning, more steals, but not as good of a fielder
Dozier’s fielding percentage was higher than Forsythe’s last season
A completely worthless stat
Dozier’s UZR was better than Forsythe’s last season
We can play this game Forsythe had a better DRS in 2015.
And Dozier’s was better in 2016
Again you’re point?
Your**
That Dozier is just as good if not a better defender than Forsythe
none of you understand defensive stats.
they take 2-3 years to normalize. the difference is negligible with maybe a sllight dozier edge. its not like we’re comparing andrelton simmons and derek jeter.
they are basically the same player over the last 2 years.
Actually, what this tells you is defensive stats are basically garbage numbers.
I don’t think they are garbage, my point was we can’t even choose one as a clear baseline. I agree Fieldieng percentage like BA can be extremely hollow. I also agree they are about the same the last two years maybe Dozier is a tad better. I was just trying to point out how subjective these numbers can be. And that’s the problem with defensive metrics.
The point of statistics is objectivity. Defensive metrics are garbage stats because they take in hundreds if not thousands of data points for a player every season. Yet even those who like to cite them are forced to admit they produce highly unstable results. This strongly suggests problems with the data set or the method of analysis, if not both, and that they are measuring more noise than signal. Just because your model spits out numbers that does not mean it is measuring something.
They were going to add other pieces, they just couldn’t agree on the other pieces
Dodgers incredible amount of sp depth is what i think made freidman pull the trigger. Alverez and buhler have a good celing so it doesent hurt long term rotation hopes. Lets hope forsthye is for real, you never know because he played in low pressure tampa bay past few years.
Yeah in order to get Dozier we would’ve had to throw in a few other guys that we may end up needing to call on at some point this season…I’m ok with dropping down (slightly) and getting Forsythe in a straight up trade for DeLeon
Hate to see DeLeon go but Forsythe is a much better fit for the Dodgers than Dozier and he would have cost DeLeon, plus. This is another case of where looking at stat lines does not tell the entire story.
Yeah, I think it’s a great deal for both clubs. Always hurts to lose a special prospect. Always hurts to lose a guy who’s been on the team for a while.
Does Franklin go back to second base? Or do you think they may pick up a stopgap, like Utley?
Miller to 2nd and sign Carter?
Carter is terrible defensively. Sign him and Moss would be great.
My hope is they sign Moss for 1st and move Miller to 2nd.
De Leon is a little bit too much for Forsythe. To me, it sounds like the Dodgers panicked and rushed a deal.
Then you haven’t been paying attention. Dodgers have spent all offseason looking for a second baseman and were very patient. Clearly this is the best offer they got.
I agree, no plausible way the Dodgers could have been any more patient.
I didn’t say they weren’t patient, I’m saying they rushed to get a deal done before ST in 3 weeks. They could’ve waited another week or 2 and got Forsythe for cheaper or even Kinsler for De Leon and another prospect.
you know this…..how?
I highly doubt they would have gotten Forsythe for cheaper.
More than highly doubtful. Rays did not need to trade him at all. They saw a chance to get value and took it. They would have happily kept a great 2nd baseman.
No they just weren’t as high on DeLeon as some fans were. You have to give to get. They obviously valued Alvarez and Buehler more at this point.
Can someone tell me how an average 2b at the age of 30 generates this type of return is insane? He puts up the same numbers as Kendrick and is slightly better at defense and we get Sweeney and they get Deleon ?
Kendrick isn’t anywhere close to as good as Forsythe, that’s why.
because you’re overhyping DeLeon.. I think the Dodgers actually won this trade.
I think nobody will know who won this trade until 5 or 6 years down the road.
Sure. But Forsythe has been a very good second baseman and the Dodgers got him for the price they were willing to pay. Dozier is definitely better (although it’ll be interesting to see what Forsythe does if he plays the full season, he usually doesn’t) but they had a pitching prospect they were willing to move and they pretty significantly upgraded their second base position by giving up him and nothing else. So at least in the short term, this is a win for the Dodgers. The Rays got a likely middle-of-the-rotation guy with shoulder issues. Could he turn into a star? Sure. But he’s a relatively big gamble and if I were the Dodgers I’d do this trade 100 times out of 100.
Wait, a well thought out and explained response, on this site? What are you doing sir?
one can just as easily argue Dozier isn’t “definitely better”
Last 2 years:
forsythe: .273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
kendrick: .274/.331/.387 1.6 total WAR
Nope.
Ugh Kendrick? He’s nowhere near these two guys, both offensively and especially defensively.
Actually, no, especially if you discount his last season when he was asked to play LF, Kendrick compares well offensively to both of them. Whether he can still play a credible 2B I really don’t know, but I guess the message we are getting from both the Dodgers and Phillies is maybe not. Forsythe is okay but comparing him offensively to Kendrick, the result is no better than a push.
Time to stop looking at the Dodgers farm system up here in MN… Glad it didn’t happen 1 for 1. It also looks like the Dodgers would definitely not give up Bellinger or Alvarez. Those would be nice 1 for 1s. If not that it was going to have to be De Leon plus Buehler or Walker and that didn’t entice the blue either. Those were the only trade scenarios the Twins likely would have said yes too for Dozier. It will be nice to see him around for a while longer but I just hope the Twins didn’t lose out on a chance to really improve our future rotation. See how De Leon does in TB…
I guess you’ll find out at the trade deadline, but there’s probably going to be one less potential partner. Still, if you like Dozier, you’ll get to see a little more of him, right?
You absolutely never would have got Bellinger or Alvarez 1 for 1, They are better than Dozier in value.
Twins missed out on a good trading partner.
I think the Dodgers should still resign Utley as a utility player, He can play ever infield position besides short, plus he’s a great leader. Seager even said that Utley is a big part of why he had such a great rookie year.
Except with 12- and 13-man pitching staffs you only have 4 bench spots, so your utility guy has to be able to play short. Utley can’t even really play second anymore, let alone short.
Utley is a remarkable defender. Just not much bat and a strict platoon player.
Anyone think this increases the chance of an Archer or Odorizzi trade?
Not really, but who knows. Cobb seems likelier IMHO; walk year.
I’m sure Twins fans will enjoy watching Dozier regress before walking away for nothing.
They said they would.
What a great trade for the Rays.
As I said earlier, he can regress and still be worth more than De Leon’s bum shoulder. Better packages for rental relievers at the deadline than that.
So salty smh. Enjoy that AL Central cellar
Enjoy that early playoff exit again.
Or, just stop being a jerk.
You sound salty that the dodgers didn’t get the player you wanted. The twins have nothing to do with it anymore so no need to be rude. Dodgers have their (lesser than Dozier but still very good) second baseman for the very expendable Deleon.
ervin santana cy young
The NLCS isn’t exactly an early playoff exit but I understand where you’re coming from…you like Dozier…I like Dozier…I just don’t like him enough to send 2-3 of our top prospects in order to land him…getting Forsythe is the better move for us at this point in time…only time will tell who won this trade or if they even traded for the right player
Mcdusty I agree the dodgers ended up winning this trade in the end. I dont think the *twins* lost it though. Keeping Dozier was still better than what the dodgers offered for their situation.
We shall see…the Twins still could’ve got 2-3 other good prospects, but it seems like they wanted to rake the Dodgers over the coals and take our two top pitching prospects and Dozier is good but not good enough to lose that
If they were actually offered 2 more good I might agree with you, but all indications are they wanted the one for one Minnesota too
Clintwolfrom have you been drinking? Or is it just so cold in Minnesota that you have lost your mind? What rental relievers are you taking about? This was a good trade for both sides. The Twins over played their hand and that is fact, but if Dozier plays like he did in the second half then it may be a good move. DeLeon would have been the Twins 2 or3 this season and probably their 1 going forward.
Probably the Chapman outlier, which is ‘reliever,’ not ‘relievers.’
2 can play it… look what Shelby Miller brought!
except everyone always needs relievers because teams carry 6 or 7 of them.
youre banking on a triple coincidence that a team is competing, in need of a 2B, and is willing to part with a ML ready prospect.
Thats it DeLeon is MLB ready so time for Coppy to snatch up Archer. What would it take to get him ?
more than ATL should give up if they dont want to do what Arizona did last year.
People also have to consider what each player meant to their respective organizations.. The Twins were very bad last year and Dozier was the only thing they had resembling a clubhouse leader type. He became the face of the franchise over the last couple years. With all due respect to Forsythe, he likely was not held that high in regard by the Rays. New GM would not be very popular to trade the face for a single pitching prospect that wasn’t elite.
interesting it’s almost as if the Dodgers had an amount they were willing to give in this case de Leon and we’re trying to see what they can get in terms of a second baseman they we’re not going to add major pieces to get Dozier and they end up with forsythe. fine with me as a dodgers and twins fan
What gets Archer to the Braves now ? Maybe they move him to the Astros though. DeLeon is MLB ready do I could def see another deal being made soon.
Still a lot more than you’d probably be willing to give up…
Dansby + Allard+ filler. Imagine his price tag is pretty close to sale’s
Yeah Odorrizi makes the most sense unless they get blown away.
The Dodgers must really love their prospects. I’d rather Dozier if I was them.
The dodgers have traded prospects see this deal + hill/reddick at the deadline. They just have ones they don’t want to trade. And considering the success of seager and urias, I think their front office deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Unfortunately that may create a bad perception of any they DO offer
I think it’s just value. JDL = Forsythe, but not Dozier, 1 for 1. JDL + Alvarez or Bellinger is too high, and whatever else they offered besides JDL just wasn’t to the Twins’ liking.
The A’s seem to really like Cotton, and Montas looks good, too. So, you know, just doesn’t quite line up for each team every time. No big deal.
Unfortunately you did not even mention potentially the best one, Holmes. Painful transaction but it was worth the chance at the world series.
why? dodger stadium is a pitchers park and the only thing dozier was noticeably better at was power. plus he’ll likely regress.
Solid move. It was pretty clear what Dozier’s market value was in this 1 team trade market and it seems Twins fans got the result they preferred in this market.
When Forsythe was first acquired by Tampa quite a few people expressed that he seemed like a bench player at absolute best. Forsythe has really elevated his stock since then and bringing DeLeon to Tampa works well for the Rays in my opinion. Forsythe should also be a solid pickup for the Dodgers as he is solid at second but also has exhibited defensive versatility in the past as well. I’m guessing that Minnesota wanted too much for Dozier.
A great move for BOTH teams. I have no dog in this fight but huge upgrade for Dodgers and Rays either have a future ace or someone they will spin off for 3 more prospects.
DeLeon does not have ace stuff, he’s projected to be a useful starter with 2 potential
He was blowing guys away last year in AAA…he has the potential, regardless of how many times you want to regurgitate an evaluation you’ve read on another website
An evaluation or every evaluation? I’ve not seen anything ranked above a 60 in any category on his 20/80 scale.
Just out of curiosity have you ever played ball or scouted players in a live baseball game?
Yes I’ve played ball – but I’m not sure what that has to do with anything. Are you implying that any fan that has played ball and scouted in person knows better than the pros that rank these guys for a living?
No he’s just implying you have no way of judging a prospect you don’t know how to judge
So I shouldn’t go off of what literally every scouting report of the guy says, I should believe a fan of the team on MLBTR? Got it, I’ve clearly been baseball fanning wrong
Guys overperform and underperform their projections ALL the time…the reason I asked is because I am not from the new school of sabermetrics…I agree that they are absolutely helpful in evaluating players but to be honest, I still like to take a look myself and see if there’s something there that could push a guy a little further or for that matter, be a weakness that hasn’t shown up yet…not knocking the new wave stats but I personally think that some guys have become so stuck on sabremetrics that they sound like robots in here
Even though this was likely the Twins only chance to get a nice haul, unless someone gets injured, I’m glad they didn’t do a 1-1 trade. You don’t just trade players to trade them, even when you have a huge need. No team should have to do a favor for the other team by giving in to whatever the buyer wants.
DeLeon would have been a rotation upgrade for sure, but it’s too many eggs in only one basket. Too risky, even though keeping Dozier is also a risk.
exactly everyone makes this seem like the twins are in trouble because they didn’t get a deal done I’d rather keep Dozier for two years then take a bad offer
You’d rather have 2 years of a good player while the team is horrible and then watch him walk for nothing?
Then to make a mistake trade like Span for Meyer? Yes. Twins ended up with nothing in that trade and the same could happen in any other 1 for 1 trade. I was for that trade when it happened. I wouldn’t say no to every 1-1 trade, but likely would the majority of them. DeLeon for Dozier is one I would turn down based on what I know/think right now but I probably wouldn’t turn down a Bellinger for Dozier straight up.
There is no guarantee that DeLeon is a bust and there is no guarantee that he is a success. Prospects bust at a high rate, whether they are ranked number one overall or number 30 or number 100 or number 274.
If someone could guarantee that DeLeon has no significant injuries and puts up, at minimum, an Ervin Santana level career then I’d be way more inclined to do it. But no one can do that. And Ervin isn’t even amazing. He’s a 3/4 on a good team. He’s a 1 on the Twins and it’s not even close.
If we were talking Urias for Dozier then I’d do that trade 100 times out of 100, but obviously that would be not wise for the Dodgers to do at all. Trust me, I don’t think Dozier is worth anywhere near Urias, this is for example purposes only. Urias or Bellinger would be the only two I’d do a straight 1-1 deal for in a trade that involved the Dodgers. Again, Urias is more of just an example. I know it’s not possible in any universe.
Yes, Dozier could get injured, slump, lose value (this one is guaranteed because controllable years will decline) etc, but people seem to have the mindset of “just take DeLeon and be happy about it” like he’s guaranteed to do well when he’s not. If he was, I would have less of a problem doing it though I’d still probably ponder it for awhile. I like DeLeon, so believe me I’m not slamming him. I just prefer Bellinger, Alvarez and Buehler more and obviously so do the Dodgers. And only one of those guys I’d do a 1-1 for. If Alvarez or Buehler were the centerpiece I’d still need more…same as DeLeon. The more part would be up for debate.
So does it hurt knowing Dozier could never be traded and at best either get nothing in return or only a pick back from a QO? Yes, but it would also hurt to do DeLeon for Dozier and DeLeon end up being nothing or have minimal impact. And if that would happen then it’s better to roll the dice with Dozier and still try to trade him at some point, if possible. I can’t predict the future so right now I’m glad the Twins didn’t do DeLeon for Dozier. The future may laugh at me later, but I’ll take that chance and I guess so will the Twins.
Great analysis Twins33. I have read scores and scores of posts from Twins fans on this topic over the past 2 months and none were as rational or as thoughtful as yours.
I believe the Dodger brass have some real concerns about JDL and believe his age, spin rate and health history justified moving him this winter. Unfortunately, the market for Dozier was just not strong this winter. I hope it improves and you get a better return this summer.
you are very wrong about prospects. at the top level, their first 6 years are usually pretty good.
top 15 prospects each year from 2005-2009:
wieters
price
rasmus
hanson
heyward
snider
anderson
maybin
bumgarner
feliz
cahill
alvarez
moustakas
posey
fowler
bruce
longoria
chamberlain
buchholz
kershaw
morales
bailey
ellsbury
mccutchen
mcgee
matsuzaka
gordon
delmon young
hughes
brandon wood
j upton
a miller
lincecum
c young
tulo
hermida
drew
liriano
billingsley
verlander
milledge
cain
fielder
kendrick
marte
zimmerman
mauer
king felix
i stewart
guzman
kotchman
kazmir
weeks
marte
hanram
francoeur
@Bananas, that might be the most hilariously cherry picked post I’ve ever seen.
Why are you starting in 2005? 12 years ago? What’s the significance?
Why are you including position players?
Why are you including top 15? If you’re using MLB.com’s rankings, DeLeon is 33
You said top 15 for a period of 5 years. That’s 75 names, I only see about 50 there. Where are the other 25?
prospects, especially pitching prospects, bust a lot. It’s way too big of a gamble to trade one for one for a prospect with shoulder injury history. At least for the Twins it was.
let’s do a more apt comparison. Let’s look at the top PITCHING prospects from 6 years ago (6 years because that’s how much control DeLeon has) and go up to #33 overall: (Where DeLeon was last year).
1. (5th overall) Julio Teheran
2 (6th) Jeremy Hellickson
3 (7th) Aroldis Chapman
4 (11th) Jameson Taillon
5 (13th) Shelby Miller
6 (15th) Matt Moore
7 (16th) Michael Pineda
8 (18th) John Lamb
9 (19th) Mike Montgomery
10 (20th) Chris Sale
11 (21st) Jacob Turner
12 (24th) Martin Perez
13 (27th) Chris Archer
14 (28th) Zach Britton
15 (29th) Kyle Drabek
16 (31st) Casey Kelly
17 (32nd) Tyler Matzek
18 (33rd) Jarrod Parker
That is the very definition of a crapshoot. There are cy young caliber guys in there and there are guys that have negative career WAR and guys that aren’t even playing ball anymore.
Prospects bust at a high rate, it’s a fact of baseball.
You basically covered what I was going to respond with. My biggest gripe against that list was:
Why are position players on that list when part of my point was that position players were much less risky than pitchers. Everyone knows that. This is why I said I’d do Bellinger 1-1, but not DeLeon. They were ranked right next to each other on both lists.
And why top 15 overall? I’m more fine if it’s top 15 pitchers only, but even then it’s skewed because DeLeon was ranked the 7th best pitcher by BA at midseason and MLB rated him to 8. Overall he was 25th on BA and 33 on MLB. Comparing say, David Price to DeLeon is unfair to DeLeon. Should never compare a number one or number two pitching prospect to someone who is at the back of the top 10 on lists unless you’re comparing their careers after they’re finished.
Price went as high up as number 2 in ALL of baseball…while I mentioned that DeLeon is in the 20s or 30s depending where you look at midseason rankings. I don’t know where he lands in new pre-season rankings because they haven’t been posted yet, but I know for a fact he won’t be the second best prospect in all of baseball.
What I’d like to see is a list of pitching prospects who were ranked as the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th best pitcher and what their success/failure rate has been. That is what would be more fair to compare DeLeon against, if we were going to do something like this. But no way is going to be perfect because some years are deeper than others and other reasons.
its not cherry picked at all. its literally the top 15 prospects by baseball america during those years (some were on 2-3 times, which is why there arent 75). you know, some guys can be a top 15 prospect at 19, 20, and 21 years old. delmon Young was on 3 times.
maybe do some research.
then look at the top 15 free agent signings by dollar value. the top 15 prospects objectively out perform them as a group.
so do free agents. especially pitchers.
difference is, you arent on the hook for 20M a year with a prospect.
remember Zito?
my point is the bust rate for top prospects is significantly lower.
you should look up how well guys perform after 30 and an aggregate of free agent performance. its pretty terrible.
I told you the reasons it was cherry picked. 2005-2009 is a completely random set of years outside of it possible fitting into your point. I.e. cherry picked.
Likewise, DeLeon is not in the top 15, so that’s a really random stopping point, again… unless cherry picked.
Even if you didn’t leave some out (which I have my doubts about) the years and number of players picked is irrelevant.
Really in the end, this is an insane argument. Your comment “then look at the top 15 free agent signings by dollar value. the top 15 prospects objectively out perform them as a group.” and then applying that to a non-free agent cost controlled pitcher vs someone not actually in the top 15 basically means that you are saying that at any given time a team should trade away established players for prospects.
2005-2009 wasnt random at all. its recent. i wanted 6 years of ML data. last season was 2016. i started at 2009 instead of 2010 because it sometimes takes a year for a guy to qualify as a rookie (may call ups).
from 2009, I went back 5 years. its not random at all, its half a decade of the most recent data we have (because a top 15 prospect in 2014 hasnt played 6 seasons).
2005-2009 wasnt random at all. its recent. i wanted 6 years of ML data. last season was 2016. i started at 2009 instead of 2010 because it sometimes takes a year for a guy to qualify as a rookie (may call ups).
from 2009, I went back 5 years. its not random at all, its half a decade of the most recent data we have (because a top 15 prospect in 2014 hasnt played 6 seasons).
my argument isnt about Deleon. its this falsehood that everyone believes about prosects vs vets.
player aging curves mean a players best years are 23-29. those are also the cheapest. you only get those players if you trade for them as a prospect.
from 30 on, guys decline and cost 5-30x as much. as a whole, the top 15 prospects will outperform the top 15 FA over the next 6 years. this is a fact. if you include the $/WAR, its laughably one sided.
point is, top prospects arent the huge risk everyone things relative to FA/older players. remember how good Matt Kemp once was? or ryan howard or tim lincecum.
its the player aging curve and math
So you’re basically making an argument that no one was talking about? Okay, that makes sense why we had no idea what you were talking about.
This 1-1 business is nothing but the Twins front office attempting to deflect bad publicity. It’s unsubstantiated and multiple other rumors said more prospects would be involved.
What we hear consistently is that the Dodgers refused to include another top 50 type as a throw in, as they absolutely should not. Sure you can request an extra prospect, but not a second top 50 when Forsythe is the alternative. There are plenty of decent prospects in the 50-100 or 100-200.
One for one business seems pretty realistic since that’s with the trade ended up being for the Dodgers
I don’t necessarily believe it was 1-1, because I’m not sure talks would have lasted that long if they were.
The thing is that these guys were deemed either untouchable or can’t be paired with DeLeon because it would be too much: Urias, Bellinger, Buehler, Alvarez, Calhoun, Stewart, Lux.
No reporter or prospect site could agree what a good second piece was, but the above were either mentioned as untouchable or too much to include with DeLeon.
Urias and Bellinger make perfect sense to me. I’d even say Alvarez does too. I can see why the Dodgers wouldn’t want to include Buehler, If I were them I wouldn’t, but I wouldn’t categorize him as completely untouchable. Calhoun looks like a DH so I wasn’t too worried about not getting that one.. Lux would be nice, but not sure if I’d be in love with him as a second piece.
So who was it with DeLeon? A lot of those guys were in the top 10 for the Dodgers or close enough to it. Verdugo wasn’t mentioned much. I would have taken him probably, but I don’t know what the Dodgers think about him. So who is it? Because the lower it gets the less appealing it is for the Twins and the more it looks like DeLeon plus lottery tickets, which is basically a 1-1.
They paid a lot for a guy with over 4 years of experience
Now go get Quintana Dodgers.
Good pick up by the Blue. Forsythe is a younger upgrade over Uttley and will pair well with Seager. Basically had to trade DeLeon – after hearing his name bartered around all winter, the kid would have played scared if not dealt
De Leon was being pushed by the Dodgers for a reason. Diminishing fastball, below average spin rate, and when his change-up is his top graded pitch, =trouble.
Twins were wise not to take the gamble. Plus, Logan Lorsythe is not anywhere on the same plane as Brian Dozier.
They are on a very similar plane actually. There is a difference, but it’s slight.
If you only compare the last two years, sure. Dozier has the longer track record though and if I were a team I’d go with that instead. Not that I blame the Dodgers at all for going with Forsythe. To me he’s just an unknown since he’s only played one full season in his career.
I’d go Kinsler, Dozier, Forsythe in that order of what I’d want if I were going after a 2B that may be available. Kinsler’s availability is debatable, but let’s just pretend it’s not. I’d say he’s never been available, but again, lets pretend that’s not true.
From 2013 to 2015 (so not counting Dozier’s crazy year), Dozier has played 122 more games, has over 800 more PA, 40 more HR’s, 162 more runs, 101 more RBI, 30 more SB, walk percentage and k percentage is pretty much the same, ISO is bigger for Dozier, wOBA and wRC are within a 10 point range…but again, Dozier has been doing it for longer. That’s comparing him straight up with Forsythe.
Can Forsythe keep it up for a full season every year for the next two years? He’s played 140 or more games once, so to me he’s only been a full time player for one year and that was 2015. Dozier gets knocked for his 2016 all the time saying he will regress and I agree with that statement every time, but no one (that I’ve seen) brings up the fact that Forsythe has played only one full season. He could be a late bloomer, I’m not discounting that, but if we’re going to knock Dozier (rightfully so) than Forsythe should be knocked too.
We all know Dozier will regress, but the only thing that significantly increased in 2016 for Dozier was the HR’s. He scored the same amount of runs he always does, His RBI went up which could be due to a number of factors, his SB was in a pretty normal range for him, Walk and K percentage remained the same, ISO increased, but we knew that. BABIP increased but not so massively. He’s usually around .270 BABIP and it was .280. His AVG was up (he hit the same amount of singles, doubles and triples that he always does), his OBP always bounces around.
So really the biggest jump is the HR’s and Dozier changed his swing a few years back and uses his legs more in order to get that to happen. He was more of an OBP guy in the minors (though nothing earth shattering) and hit only about 18 or 19 HR’s his entire time in the minors.
So to me, Dozier has been good for 4 years now whether he hit 42 HR’s in 2016 or if he would have only hit 25-30 in 2016. He still was good for four years in a row as a full time player, while Forsythe has only played one full season in that same time frame. If you combine two of Forsythe’s years into one full season then you can give him the benefit of saying he’s been doing it for 2.5 years…but that’s pushing it to me especially when the years you are combining aren’t back to back.
As I’ve posted elsewhere, I think this was a smart move for the Dodgers. I would have done the same thing. They have faith that Forsythe can do it for a full season for the next two years and he cost the least amount in the trade. Every team that heavily values prospects would do that trade 10 times out of 10. If I’m being honest, I’d actually say the Dodgers overpaid..but I think most teams would rather overpay with only one prospect then overpay and give up multiple.
dozier hit like .236 in 2015…
you basically have to believe dozier hits 40 HR in dodger stadium to think hes significantly better. exit velocity is similar too
And batting average is the only stat that matters in all of baseball? He hit .242 and .242 in the years before that. I’m not saying those are good (they aren’t) but you keep cherry picking Forsythe’s 2015 and 2016 to put next to Dozier’s 2015 and 2016.
And you’re doing that because those are the only years Forsythe has been good and in 2016 he didn’t even play a full season. He’s only played one full season in his career and that’s supposed to be better than Dozier’s four good years? Even if we take out Dozier’s 2016, that’s still three good years vs Forsythe’s 1.75 years. Dozier has provided more consistent production for a longer period of time. I’m not saying Forsythe can’t in the future but I am saying he hasn’t, because he literally has not.
And no I basically believe that Dozier hits somewhere around 30 HR’s in 2017. I was thinking that whether he was with the Twins or with the Dodgers.
Here is what you do to avoid cherry-picking problems: you don’t cherry pick. Instead, look at career batting lines:
Forsythe: .255/.326/.395/.721 (OPS+ 103)
Dozier: .246/.320/.442/.762 (OPS+ 108)
Basic rule of statistics: normal distributions form a bell curve centered on the mean. If you want to make an argument that any player’s future performance is not likely to be normally distributed, that it is trending one way or another, then the onus is on the person making that argument to say why.
And I think it’s also important to look at the time frame that both players have done that in. Forsythe hasn’t been a full time player except for one year (injuries, poor play, poor usage of player? etc). Dozier has been a full time player for 4 years. There’s a 150 game difference from 2013-2016.
If Forsythe puts up his 2015-2016 numbers again for each of the next two years, then I’d find it easier to say Forsythe is equal to or better than Dozier, but right now I can’t based on the 150 game difference in games played. Dozier has sustained his production for longer.
Extreme example but to me, it’s like saying player A comes up and hits like Mike Trout for three years and Mike Trout hit likes Mike Trout for five years (similar batting lines for both players). So those players are equal, right?. Uh no. Mike Trout is better because he’s done it for longer and no one would try to say otherwise.
It would not surprise me if Forsythe is good for the next two years, but he has to do it in order to be better than Dozier, in my eyes. And Dozier would also have to regress big time and I’m not saying regress from 2016 which is automatic. I’m talking about to 2013 levels or lower, which 2013 is the worst season of his career.
And again, if you want to make a trend argument that beats a normal distribution argument then you will need a rationale. I’m not really seeing any here, just a lot of ifs. Not the same thing.
I guess I just don’t think we’re ever going to agree because if we can’t agree that Dozier has played and produced for four years while Forsythe has played and produced for approximately 1.75 years then we’re never going to agree. There’s no IF about that. It’s fact.
I feel like I’m in some alternate universe where 1.75 is greater than 4. In your world, is Strasburg better than Kershaw? Because in mine he isn’t. I’d say Kershaw is twice the pitcher Strasburg is.
We’re not agreeing because I am making a statistically based argument and you are not, so we are talking about completely different things.
Time for me to go haunt a new stadium with my diminishing skill set . . . .
I’m done slaying noobs here
Clintmeister out
Alright, sounds good Sherminator
That is the funniest thing anyone has said yet
Question. Castro for De Leon ? Would the yanks have done it ?
Absolutely.
But I’m betting the Dodgers wouldn’t have.
Definitely, but the Dodgers likely don’t.
lol. Castro is *not* a good player. He is league avg at best, and that wouldn’t be worth DeLeon, Castro’s contract is also expensive for his production. He basically matched up to Ruben Tejada for the past few years….(not perfectly, but some similar slash #’s).
This is a good trade for both sides ..Sad to see DeLeon go but we needed a second baseman and the club is pitching prospect rich.This club will be a strong contender ..No holes in the infield.Only spot really now with a question mark is left field and a bullpen piece here and there ..Go Dodgers ..Do we see Forsythe at fan fest
???
i think we have a massive hole at first base honestly, i dont know how adrian gonzalez constantly evades any criticism but hes a huge terrible offensive player now, hes pretty much a $25m/season version of james loney. Can not wait for Bellinger to come through when a gon is really gone.
As far as this trade goes, sad to see De Leon go but it’s a move that had to get done to get a quality player in Logan. I just wish it was Brock Stewart/Stripling instead of Leon who i think is going to be an excellent pitcher.
They have so many LF possibilities it’s not funny. I’d be more worried about RF.
I like this. Both Dozier and Forsythe meet the right handed bat need. Dozier slugs better, but the Dodgers really needed a more consistent leadoff hitter. Forsythe is a better fit for the need relative to what the Dodgers gave up.
I think this is a fair exchange of value.
Where do people get this leadoff business? Dozier has better baserunning skills and OBP than Forsythe and obviously better power so why wouldn’t he be a better candidate to lead off?
Obviously you would not generally want him to lead off in most potential lineups but people essentially said ‘yay a lesser offensive player so he can fill an arbitrary batting position!’
Forsythe has a higher career OBP. The difference is small. If you want to look only at their last seasons, Dozier has the higher OBP. The difference is also small. Both bat a lot of leadoff, a real need for the Dodgers. So that’s where people get the leadoff business. A lot of how we rate this trade depends on whether we think it was realistic to expect Dozier to duplicate his power output playing half his games at Dodger Stadium, and whether we believe it is more likely Forsyth will build on his last two growth seasons. This is before we get into the question of what the Dodgers were being required to give up.
Okay people forsythe is a great player and I had the pleasure to watch a true grinding professional play in Tampa for a couple years. The man almost teared up when we gave him a 3 year extension because he felt so wanted. A very good person and players. BUT we have some very good young infielders ready to go and for the Rays his club option is over 9M already, which is too much for our small market. Very happy for Logan hopefully to win a World Series but our pitching will always be a strength and he replaces smyly and is much better than him. So it’s a win for both sides. 6 years of controllable starting pitching with a very successful pitching coach and staff to guide him will work wonders for the young man
One thing I will say is I love what the Rays are doing right now. Hate to see Logan go but our roster is so young and energetic and none of them give a f*** what anyone else thinks they are hungry and young and controllable and full of potential and skill. If you ever get to watch them it’s so awesome seeing everyone smiling 24/7 and so playful and excited. The additions of rasmus and Ramos and tolleson for some vets but still on the younger side but have experience. Great blend going on.
Now the rays need to sign carter put miller at 2nd, maybe both carter and moss
This is hilarious. The Dodgers get a lesser player than Dozier for exactly the same guy they were trying to get the Twins to accept. They get an older guy in Forsythe who doesn’t have the speed, power or defense of Dozier but will cost more money. They get a guy who strikes out more but can’t drive in runs at near the same rate. This is a lose-lose for both teams. The Rays get a guy in De Leon with a ceiling of a #3 if he sticks in the majors. The Dodgers get a guy with an OBP 40 points lower and an OPS 200 points lower than Dozier against LHP and 160 points lower overall. Neither will help their new teams much. The Rays will still be in last place for the foreseeable future and the Dodgers didn’t get enough to push them over the top to being a WS team.
Oh look, a fantastically sad breakdown from a padres fan. i’m not sure why you hate the dodgers so much, it’s not like your team is actually competing with them.
Something I don’t understand. You say Forsyth isn’t as good as Dozier, right? No argument here. But you couldn’t get Dozier for De Leon straight up, so doesn’t that kind of say the same thing. Dozier is worth more, but the Dodgers didn’t want to give up more prospects. So they chose the cheaper option.
How do you know?I don’t ever see anything the Padres do that make any sense ..Twins wanted Bellinger or Alvarez.Dozier was NOT worth one of those guys ..Forsythe fills a need.I am glad they got him .Twins were just greedy
From what I read, the deal was not Dozier for Deleon straight up. Twins wanted Alvarez tossed in, and the Dodgers wanted someone else as the addl piece.
Don’t know where you saw that, because everything I read said that DeLeon straight up for Dozier was what the Dodgers were offering. Both the LA Times and the Minneapolis Star Tribune had articles that said exactly that and they were reported here too. Of course, the Twins wanted more than just De Leon. He has a ceiling of a #3, more likely to be a #4 and with his injuries last season is a very risky bet. Dozier is a sure thing to put up 4 WAR and crush LHP. Going to be nice to watch the Dodger players on the golf course come WS time …again. Until they get rid of this FO, that is going to be a recurring theme for the Dodgers.
LOL
Bruh, Dozier has only had two 4+ WAR seasons. And that’s according to both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs
Enjoy last place San Tardegan. Meanwhile I will suffer with another playoff appearance caused by that awful LA front office.
DeLeon could easily flourish (he has six years of control) and Dozier could easily regress. If Dozier didn’t have his ridiculous hot streak at the end of last season he may have been had for JDL plus change. Enjoy the NL west cellar again. Maybe Preller can fraud some more medical records for the Pads to get a deal done.
Stop acting like you know everything. The act gets old.
Let’s look at the last two years, because we can classify Forsythe as a late bloomer. As much can be said about Turner. First when has Forsythe even Kd more than Dozier. In fact the last two years they have an identical K rate. And Forsythe has a better wRC plus. You’re also comparing a peak, that excuse my skepticism is unsustainable. So what you’re giving up maybe 8-10 HRs a year, seeing as Dozier is probably a 28-30 HR guy. Especially seeing as he’ll probably be pitch a lot differently. If you think the running game is that important to this team you’d be wrong. You’re not running in front of Seager or Turner because of the attacking type of nature hitters they are. Maybe on the backend where they probably have Toles and a guy like Thompson. But that’s just not the way they are going to be constructed seeing as they value the number 2 holes as three hole. The UZR and DRS metrics differ on who is better defensively over the last two years. Also if you want to play that game Forsythe has a better career ops plus against LHP. He also has a better career OBP. See I can throw out small little tidbits to sway an argument. In fact he’s really not going to cost much more more money than Dozier, his AAV will be around what 6.5M compared to 5M.
This trade actually fits the team perfectly, but as a Padres fan I can see why you don’t understand that fact. They weren’t simply going to dig out of this hole with one player. That highlights how important Thompson and SVS absences were last year. Heck I’ll be the first to tell you Dozier has a better toolset. Doesn’t mean he’s a better fit for the currently constructed team. Fact is they now have a guy they send out to 2B everyday and can bounce around the inf occasionally (not named Kikè) to give guys a rest. Also gives the dodgers the ability to get Barnes some more regular ABs. To me it was more about lengthening the lineup. It also made Puig even more expendable than he is currently was if the team breaks camp healthy.
Thanks for trying, but here is the sad truth for Dodgers fans. Dozier is better than Forsythe by a long shot. Forsythe is older so he will start regressing sooner since he has less speed and doesn’t play defense as well as Dozier does. That is a given. Dozier has a .160 point higher OPS and a 200 point higher OPS against LHP, which is where the Dodgers needed help the most. Dozier hit 22 more home runs than Forsythe last year and has hit more than twice as many in the last 4 seasons as Forsythe has in his career (6 seasons) in just 300 more AB. Forsythe has averaged 9 Hr per season, Dozier 23.4. Dozier stole 3 times as many bases as Forsythe and had a much, much higher BsR last season. wRC+ career – Dozier 107/Forsythe 102. Forsythe 22.4% K rate, Dozier 20.0% K rate. That means Forsythe K’s more often than Dozier. Dozier is just a much, much better player and Forsythe is not enough to get the Dodgers over the hump, while Dozier at least had a shot at doing that for them. I obviously understand baseball better than you do and while Forsythe IS a 2B, he is not a great fit. He is just not good enough to make a difference.
In no way was I arguing that Forsythe had had a better career, but you do you. Which is kind of comical because you couldn’t argue that so you went straight to career. We can all agree that Forsythe is a late bloomer. We can also agree that you addressed nothing really in my argument really except for career OPS. Your assumption is also that one guy would have fixed the fortunes of this team against LHP. But hey you know more about baseball. I mean Dozier would have completely tipped the scales last post season. I mean it’s not like Maeda limped to the end. It’s not like Urias looked gassed. It’s not like you could tell the injury and workload had caught up to Kersh. For goodness sake Kendrick was starting in LF and Kikè at 2nd. Utley had cratered offensively because he was 37 and no longer an everyday player. . And at 30 your assertion of regression is kind of comical when considering he’s not under a long term contract. And btw the last two season the comparison I was correct on every single fact so believe what you want.
One last thing. OPS vs LHP – Forsythe .818. Dozier .854. You were not correct on a single point.
You’re drawing at straws pal…there is room for you in Dodgers Stadium and I’m sure blue would be a nice looking color on you…when you’re ready to come root for an actual MLB team I will even buy you a Dodger Dog and beer
You dare question the almighty Pads Fans?
I like to be the devils advocate when people don’t really do the research. But then again he’s the same poster who claimed on multiple posts that the Dodgers could not sign any of their FAs unless they had a fire sale. But you know he knows more about the Dodgers and baseball.
Yeah. He’s pretty much cornered the market on making dubious comments and then cherry-picking random stats to “prove” them. You learn to live with it.
Haha right. It’s water off my back. No biggie.
older barely.
Last 2 years:
.273/.347/.444 8.4 WAR total
.252/.323/.495. 8.9 WAR total
worse? not really
Was wondering when you’d show up
Now trade for Braun. Puig, McCarthy and a prospect.
No wonder the Twins are picking at the top of the draft…again…4 years after their rebuild started…
The Twins lost a deal between the Dodgers and Rays.
That implies that the Twins have been trying to rebuild. They haven’t, though they should have been. Unless you count signing guys like Pelfrey, Nolasco, Kubel, Bartlett, Suzuki, Santana (this one has actually been a life saver), Correia, Park…probably others and trolling the waiver wire. So they haven’t been rebuilding. They’ve been doing the opposite, signing old guys they think will be the key to turning it around. And when you look at that list, it makes you laugh at that thought.
When you rebuild you trade vets and hand the keys to the young guys. The Twins haven’t done that even though they should have been. Though, besides a player here and there, they haven’t had much of anything worth trading and even then the value is debatable. Plus, most of the prospects were not ready or busting.
On offense, the young players have now emerged due to readiness, but that didn’t start happening big time until the second half of 2015. So I’d say they are only 1.5 years into the rebuild and have just been terrible for much longer than that. Now they need to work on the rotation (mostly full of guys 28 years old or older) and the relievers. I’d say the bullpen is about half older players, half younger but the bullpen feels way more up in the air so it’s hard to predict right now.
A Dozier trade would definitely accelerate that, but a team also shouldn’t make a trade just to make a trade. They have to believe it’s fair. Dodgers did what they had to do. Went with the team that wanted the least. I would have too, if I were them. It was a smart move, but I wouldn’t do it straight up for Dozier.
“If we can’t get more, we’re better off getting nothing.”
I just don’t get the mentality of Twins fans on this….they act like they’ll plan a parade in Minneapolis when the Dodgers lose.
Meanwhile, they have a lot of prospects who are becoming suspects and even if all of them pan out, they’ll still have no pitching.
They have a player in his prime signed to a great contract who had a career year he’s highly unlikely to repeat. That is an asset you sell high on when you can.
If Twins fans don’t think they are being offered enough at the peak of his value, what do they think he’ll bring back after he regresses and has less club control left?
I just don’t get it.
On the chance Dozier has a good first half (which I know isn’t always the case), maybe they think they can get a contender to bite big at the deadline? Not impossible, though I see where you’re coming from. This was a sell high opportunity. Unfortunately I think there weren’t a ton of 2B buyers. Bad timing, maybe. Injuries not to Dozier as the season progresses might get them the haul they want.
Though I see your point, for sure.
“If we can’t get more, we’re better off getting nothing.”
That’s basically what my Padres’ GM said at the deadline two years ago and the Braves’ GM said at the deadline last year. Altho in Dozier’s case there is a fair chance that the market gets stronger and the Twins get more than the Dodgers were offering come this summer.
“Meanwhile, they have a lot of prospects who are becoming suspects and even if all of them pan out, they’ll still have no pitching.”
Ranked prospects become suspects is precisely why the twins shouldn’t give up their best player for one prospect
Exactly.
They should let their best player (who is not that good for a team’s best player) walk away for nothing.
No prospects, no suspects. Just a whole team of retread cheap free agents.
Keep picking at the top of the draft.
Oh, but since prospects are suspects, make sure to trade that top overall pick for a backup outfielder because prospects are suspects and it’s better to get the MLB player.
I don’t get Twins fans. I just don’t.
1. Dozier is worth more to the Twins than DeLeon, period.
2. He hasn’t reached free agency yet. He could be extended. HE COULD STILL BE TRADED. Just because they didn’t make this trade doesn’t mean he’s locked into the Twins for 2 more years. If he continues to produce, its quite feasible they get something of at least as good value at the deadline or next year.
Twins haven’t “lost” anything because they still have a very good player with a ton of value.
It’s nothing short of insane to think the Twins lost this deal by not taking whatever they could get.
Man you sound bitter about this for some reason.
And I don’t get why you’re lumping me in with Twins fans who “will plan a parade when the Dodgers lose” I’m guessing the majority of Twins fans are not like that and I know for sure, I’m not like that.
And what prospects are becoming suspects? I’ll give you Hicks and Arcia from the past but who else?
Berrios has played all of 14 games in the majors. He’s 22. Too soon to call him a suspect. Am I worried? Sure, but the new FO guy was credited big time with fixing the Indians pitching (that’s all I kept reading prior to him coming here) and the Indians have a top 5 staff in the AL. The Indians staff used to be just as terrible as ours several years back. I have faith, but there are no guarantees in baseball.
Polanco, who should be Dozier’s replacement, is 22 and hit well in 69 games.. Too early to call that one either way, but so far so good.
Buxton hasn’t even played a COMBINED one full season in the majors. He’s 23. Also too early to call on that one and last year he picked it up towards the end. He doesn’t have to hit like a madman to be extremely valuable. If he even hits league average for a CF then he’s becomes a star because his defense is already up there.
Sano was forced to play out of position a big chunk of 2016. He still hit well for a 23 year old. He spent a long time not playing 3B due to that and due to the TJ surgery he had. If you think he’s a suspect then I have no idea what to tell you.
Kepler has barely played in the majors yet, but so far he looks like a starting corner OF guy. He’s 23. It’s too early to say one way or another on him.
And Rosario is Rosario. He’s always been a free swinger. What he’s done is what people have expected out of him. He’s 25.
I agree they have no pitching because they haven’t drafted well. Who wouldn’t agree with that? Most of their top 10 prospects are pitchers, but I definitely wouldn’t say any are studs. They have Berrios, Gonsalves, Jay (though this feels more like a long shot), and Mejia who could make starts for them this year. These aren’t light the world on fire pitchers, but I would think they could help. I do agree with you, the pitching has been bad for five out of the last six years. And the one time they got average pitching out of them it almost got them to the playoffs in 2015.
So, the pitching has to improve from terrible to average on a consistent basis which is a huge jump. Obviously I’d want more than that, but that’s a big enough jump as is. The offensive core is mostly here now and it has 6 guys in it who are 25 or younger.
Should they sell high on Dozier? Yes, but I don’t think getting one pitching prospect for him is getting fair value unless that pitching prospect is someone rated higher than a DeLeon. Berrios was ranked higher than DeLeon in midseason rankings if I recall correctly. I wouldn’t do Dozier for Berrios straight up either (if they were on different teams obviously). I’d need more..
So to me it feels more like “you will take this and like it, we don’t care if it’s below value” or “take what you can get.” The Twins shouldn’t take just any 1-1 deal. They took Span for Meyer (DeLeon is better than Meyer) and ended up with nothing from that trade. It has to be worth it. I don’t think DeLeon alone is enough for Dozier who has a four year track record of being good. He’ll regress from hitting 42 HR’s, but even if we pretend Dozier only hit 25 HR’s last year, that would still be good. He’d still have four good years in a row so no, I’m not a fan of “take whatever some team is willing to give you” as if it’s some kind of charity. And I’ve said multiple times that I like DeLeon, but him alone is not enough. And we have no idea what else the Dodgers offered, if they did offer more. I would expect they did offer more, but guessing it was no one in their top 10 as so many players were reported off limits or considered too much to include with DeLeon. I cannot say that with certainty though.
I’d rather keep Dozier than make a trade that would be considered below fair value. You don’t just make a trade to make a trade, especially if you’re a bad team because that has a big potential to set you back even further if DeLeon doesn’t work out.
From 2013 to 2015, so NOT including his insane 2016. Dozier ranked among all qualified 2B as follows:
4th in games played
3rd in PA
1st in HR
2nd in runs
5th in RBI
5th in SB
3rd in BB%
1st in ISO
22nd in BA
16th in OBP
5th in SLG
6th in WAR
He’s top 6 in 10 out of 12 categories. You don’t give those away as charity to another team. Again, those numbers do NOT include his 2016. I’m not sure the Twins will get a better deal later. Dozier’s contract will lose value and very few teams at the deadline want hitters and if they do they aren’t 2B. It’s certainly a risk, but I’m frankly tired of people acting like DeLeon is a guarantee when he’s not. Twins could have taken him and he could fail. That is just as bad of an outcome as not trading Dozier. And actually, I think it’d actually be a worse outcome because not trading him means they’d still have the chance to do so…whereas DeLeon busting for the Twins equals the Twins for sure getting nothing.
Forsyth racked up good power numbers AFTER leaving the Padres for the Rays in the AL east. Every stadium in that division favors hitters. Now he’s back in the NL west playing in SD, LA and SF. Though COLO and AZ r hitters parks, the other 3 in that division r not. In fact, his stats AZ r solid while his stats in the other 4 NL west parks r weak.
And more to the point? He has never homered in Dodger stadium, albeit that’s thru 48 at bats.
Tropicana Field ranked 24th in MLB in park factor for hitters last season.
And what were the rankings for Camden, Yankee stadium, Fenway and Rogers? What r the rankings for dodger stadium, att and petco? Doubtful he approaches the numbers he’s recently had.
I think it’s a good trade for both sides. I would prefer Dozier, but not at the cost of two top 10 prospects. Maybe De Leon and a guy or two not in the top 30. But MN stuck to its guns, so it was plan B. If you look at the Dodgers now, it’s the same as last year except Forsyth replaces Utley. Love Utley, but this is an improvement and from the right side of the plate. And you have Hill for a full year (if he can pitch a full year). Then they need to replace Blanton. If they don’t, unless someone steps up, they are probably no better on paper this year over last. I’d still like them to get Braun for Puig, Mc Carthy and a lower prospect. Salaries are even for first two years, then Dodger payroll drops in ’19 and can handle Braun’s remaining contract. That would be a killer lineup. If Eithier is healthy, 1-8 could hit 25 HRs a year.
Very sensible post, although I’m hoping that Toles beats out Ethier for a job against righties. I really think he can provide a spark and like what he brings to the table. He just needs to keep his head on straight. He’s hit at every professional level he’s been.
I don’t think we honestly know yet what Toles brings to the table. For sure his fielding is a bit of an adventure. I am also curious to know what he did to get himself released by the Marlins. Maybe a future red flag, maybe not. All I know is nobody talks about it.
ive read that toles had issues with anxiety and that’s why he left baseball for a short time.
mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/21/sports/baseball/andr…
Thanks for the link. I’d heard parts of the story before, but not about the anxiety issues. I wonder why more ballplayers don’t have anxiety disorders. If I had to do what they do every day I’d never sleep.
I don’t understand the outrage by Jays fans over this trade: Logan Forsythe was the 10th ranked 2B in the AL in 2016. In the NL, Forsythe’s defense is comparable to Daniel Murphy’s and his offense to Neil Walker’s.
I’m not impressed with Jose DeLeon but, others who study minor league prospects are.
Forsyth has the 6th best war of all 2nd basemen since 2015.
Logan Forsythe was the 7th rated 2B in MLB in 2015, 14th in 2016 and 9th 2015 and 2016 combined.
Regardless, The Dodgers plugged their biggest hole. Forsythe improves the Dodgers 2B position.
In short…
LA fans: mostly happy
Tampa Bay fans: mixed feelings
Minnesota fans: love Brian Dozier
Everyone else: happy this LA/2B saga is finally over
I think everyone is happy this saga is over.
Not me
wow… this is going to go down along the lines of the last time the Dodgers gave up a young pitcher for an overrated second baseman like in 1993 when they traded away a young Pedro Martinez to the Expos for Delino DeShields… I only wish Cashman had known they were going to take so little to get DeLeon, he could have traded Castro who is 3 years younger.
Doubt they were ever interested in Castro doesn’t provide the pop against LHP. He also just not very good defensively. And the metrics hate him.
There’s also really nowhere close to a comp besides a 2b traded for sp with a nasty changeup. Pedro was built up pretty significantly for a starters workload. DeLeon has had his innings manipulated and is at least two years away from a starters workload. So I really think they wanted Forsythe but wanted to check in on Dozier and Kinsler to see if they could buy cheaply.
Cardinals fan here.
Good trade for both teams.
But damn, the Dodgers got a good one here. Nice job!
Pretty fair trade for both teams, and also fair of the Twins to want a lot more for the superior Dozier.
I’m more than ok with dozier being labeled as superior. That said doziers ops+ the last two years is 120. Forsythes is 119. Should be fun watching all 3 players careers in the next few years to see how this shakes out.
I’m glad Brian Dozier is staying in Minnesota.
If I were the Twins, I would start trying to figure out a package to get Chris Archer, as the Rays do not have any future prospect @ 2B.
Don’t know the Rays needs but my gut says Gordon and Gonsalves. Just my guess. Could be way off, likely am.
Though now I’m remembering that you mentioned 2B so you probably meant send over Dozier or Polanco in a package for Archer. Would think they’d prefer Polanco since he could be around for longer.
So Gordon and Polanco maybe. Basically would be surprised if we didn’t have to give up Gordon in an Archer trade.
Twins don’t need archer as they are a long way from competing.
They don’t have to be a long way from competing though. Also, having Dozier when we are a “long way from competing” is a waste. Especially when Dozier will never have this good of a season ever again. His stock is higher than it will ever be, so why not package Dozier and Gonsalves for Archer. It opens the door for Gordon in the future, with Escobar filling in temporarily, while Polanco moves to second.
Besides not being nearly enough for Archer, the Rays are fine in-house at 2B. Most likely will move Miller over there. Second base is probably his best position to play anyway, and then the Rays will also have a 30 HR guy at the keystone.
Great move for dodgers. Bad move for Rays unless DeLeon becomes an ace which could happen. But bad stadium and division for him to pitch his first full year in the show, so we shall see.
And el oh el to the guy who commented early about the Rays being the 4th best team in the division over the Yankees. I am a Yankees fan, but I don’t think that matters when I’d say I’d rather have our rotation, bullpen, lineup, and prospects over what the Rays can provide.
I do believe Kevin Cash is a great manager already and I think that will continue.
In my opinion…DeLeon is a steep price to pay for two years of Forsythe. If i’m GM…I never agree to that. Only thing DeLeon would have been dealt for would be Dozier.
This is a great move by the Rays given how good they are at developing pitchers
Go angels!!!! This is our year!!! 2017! Don’t worry im not thinking this trade was for the halos.
Just wanted to say this!
Countdown to 400 comments…. what can I say, I want to be the 4ooth comment.
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1!!!! 400th comment!!! Go halos!!