MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.
There are several “make or break” candidates on this year’s Royals team, with pending free agents Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar all having much to prove. But there’s as much variance for third baseman Mike Moustakas as there is for any of those other core K.C. players, and he’ll face the added uncertainty of coming back from an ACL tear suffered last May.
Moustakas, who’ll turn 29 in September, was long viewed as a quality prospect who just hadn’t gained traction in the majors. Through the 2014 season, he had accumulated only a .236/.290/.379 batting line in over 500 games of MLB action. But Moustakas showed life in the 2014 postseason, raising hopes yet again that he’d finally come into his own on the playing field.
As it turned out, that’s just what happened. Moustakas blossomed in the Royals’ 2015 World Series campaign, setting personal-best marks in every triple-slash category (.284/.348/.470) while driving a career-high 22 long balls. And he continued to draw solid ratings for his glovework at the hot corner, leading to a 3.6 fWAR / 4.4 rWAR campaign in which he finally rewarded the organization’s commitment.
Things were off to a rather promising start in 2016, with Moustakas carrying a .240/.301/.500 slash when he hit the operating table. That’s all the more impressive given that he was held back by a .214 BABIP in spite of a 37.4% hard-hit percentage that is better than he’s ever managed over a full season. Plus, Moustakas had tamped down his already excellent strikeout ratio to a personal-low 11.5% level while boosting his walk rate to 8.0%, just below league average. Moustakas was also showing further strides in converting flyballs to home runs, with a 19.4% HR/FB ratio.
All said, the arrow has pointed up for Moustakas ever since he turned things on late in 2014. If he can regain that momentum and prove he’s back to full health, perhaps the missed time won’t prove a major hindrance to his earning power. A big season from Moustakas could leave him targeting something approaching the Pablo Sandoval contract (five years, $95MM), though perhaps only a true breakout campaign would make that achievable. But there’s plenty of earning power downside, too; after all, Moustakas has been a below-average hitter for the bulk of his MLB career, and anything short of a productive campaign might put quite a different spin on his overall track record.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Anything short of an absolute monster year will land him in the David Freese territory.
Honestly I was thinking Headley money, but David Freese money seems way more likely
Freese territory? Freese signed for 3/11M, was 33, and has nowhere near Moose’s track record on D. Let’s say Moose puts up a season where he’s healthy and hits something like .250/.310/.430 18/70. His youth, D, and potential would easily land him in the 4-5 year, $14M+ territory. Even if he has a terrible year like .220/.280/.360 12/50 there will still be a team that takes a flyer on him for far more than Freese’s AAV.
He’s basically a blank slate right now, because you don’t know whether his 2015 season was his true talent level, or just a good year. Because of his age, you know Boras is going to be pitching huge dollar long term contracts. But it’s a significant gamble–the 2012/2014 years were ok, nothing special–the best of them, 2012, had a dWAR he hasn’t approached since. If I were a GM right now, I’d be worried I’d be buying a younger-aged Headley–performing at a contemporary Headley level.
He was also running a .260iso, roughly 70 points higher than he’s ever done in the majors and that hr/fb% was 8% higher than he ever has, almost double. This is the kind of stuff you see in small samples and why they need to be taken with a major grain of salt.
Of course. Point was just to say he was basically continuing the 2015 season in terms of showing above-average ability at the plate.
Royals will enjoy their last season with their foursome and then resign Hos and Moose and let Cain and Escobar walk.
I’d much rather have Mike Moustakas than Erick Hosmer. He’s much better. Hosmer is way over hyped. If health Moose is the better of the two going forward for sure. If I was KC he’s the one I’d be talking to, not Hosmer
He has come a long way from th Moustinkas days.
I’m a huge moose fan and think he will have a good year, but I really can’t see him getting a contract like that. I don’t think there is a player on the royals that could get roughly 20 million a season. Who needs that level of production for that price? I can see 5 years 65 to maybe 75 million
The team that pays him will be making a huge mistake.
Close to 100m based on a 30 year old with a couple solid seasons (assuming 2017 is great).. Just don’t see that happening. I actually see KC maybe being able to retain a few guys…whether they should or not. We’re getting post 30 on these guys contract wise now. Looking at the numbers really does make the Royals accomplishment more amazing….just a great team effort that’s probably been sum greater than the parts. But like the Beatles…I like them together and not so much solo.
Sure would have liked to have seen a healthy 2016 though. We’re looking at one good season in 2015 basically. Any regression and we’re not even talking about being a major league first division starter.
My best projection would be Hosmer and Moustakas resigning in the 15m/season range. Cain and Escobar walk.
He would look great in an Angels jersey
Tough to know what to do with him contract-wise I think his growth as more of a spray hitter rather than a one-dimensional pull hitter was real.. But there’s no telling how someone comes back after missing almost a year of baseball. If anything, I’d say the injury almost makes it more likely that he stays in KC. Of the 4 core guys reaching FA after this season, I think a healthy Moose is worth the most. Hosmer is a great guy, but more of a line drive hitter who runs into some monster home runs sometimes and his defense at first is very over rated. Cain is 30+ and despite being the most talented guy on the team, is hurt too often. Teams will overpay for both of them, just not the Royals. Meanwhile, Escobar is likely expendable because of poor hitting and seemingly declining defense, and of course because Mondesi is a natural SS. If the team is willing to spend some money and Moose has a bounce back year, I think he could re-sign.