While the collective baseball world — MLBTR included — eyes the final stages of the season and gears up for exciting postseason pushes, we’re also of course keeping an eye on the offseason to come. Performances both good and bad in 2025 will naturally impact the asking price of free agents this winter. We’ve done two iterations of our annual Free Agent Power Rankings series so far this year — one in April, one in late May — and it feels like a good opportunity to refresh the list once more.
As a reminder, our power rankings at MLB Trade Rumors are not a straight ranking of the best free agents in the upcoming class. There are plenty of older veterans who can make significant impact on short-term deals. Our rankings are based on total earning power, which means older vets like Paul Goldschmidt are rarely going to crack the top 10, regardless of how strong their performance is. Their age will simply limit them to a shorter-term pact that caps their earning power and leaves them with smaller guarantees than less-productive (but still quality) contributors who can more push for longer-term deals.
As we’ve seen with recent mega-deals for Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., age is king when it comes to unlocking the richest deals MLB has to offer. The best way a player can position himself for a monster contract is to get to free agency at as young an age as possible — and, of course, do so while turning in excellent results at the plate or on the mound.
Onto the rankings!
1. Kyle Tucker, OF, Cubs
There’s no change up top. Tucker remains the cream of this year’s free agent crop. He’s not enjoying as much production, on a rate basis, as he did last year but has been healthier than last year. Tucker’s .271/.384/.474 slash is 41% better than league-average, per wRC+, and he’s just two homers shy of a fifth straight 20-homer season. He’s averaging 90.4 mph off the bat with a 42.4% hard-hit rate and has never posted an average exit velocity under 90 mph or a hard-hit rate under 41.9%. Tucker’s 23 steals in 2025 have him on pace to top his career-high 30. He’s only been caught twice. Given Tucker’s 26th-percentile sprint speed, that’s a testament to his baserunning acumen.
Tucker will play all of next season at age 29. He’s on track for a fifth straight season where he’s at least 30% better than average at the plate and a second straight year with more walks than strikeouts. This year’s 14.4% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career and sits lower than his 15.2% walk rate (the second-highest of his career).
Tucker is a quality defensive right fielder with above-average arm strength and plus accuracy. Teams with needs in either outfield corner will be interested in Tucker, and he’s the type of talent for whom a team would look to create roster space via the trade market. Tucker won’t approach Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani territory, but he’ll have a case to top $400MM and could try to take aim at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM mark with a big enough finish to the regular season and/or postseason performance. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer, but that won’t be a deterrent of any note in his market.
2. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
Bichette has shaken off a pedestrian start to the season and, more importantly, made last year’s lack of production in an injury-ruined campaign feel like a distant memory. He’s hitting .300/.341/.468 in 508 plate appearances overall, but that jumps to a stout .306/.347/.508 when looking at his past 380 plate appearances. Bichette’s power was M.I.A. for the season’s first five weeks or so. All 15 of Bichette’s home runs this season have come since May 3. He’s been on an otherworldly tear of late, hitting .404/.449/.633 over the past month.
He’s still not walking much (5.3%), but Bichette’s 14.8% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. He’s averaging 91 mph off the bat with a hearty 48.6% hard-hit rate. It’s still a swing-happy approach (hence the lack of walks), as evidenced by a 33.9% chase rate on balls of the plate. That’s about six percentage points higher than average but stands as the lowest mark of Bichette’s career. Even with those swings, however, Bichette’s contact rate is plus. That’s particularly true when Bichette zeroes in on balls over the plate; his 91.2% contact rate on balls in the strike zone ranks 19th in all of baseball.
Bichette has slowed down noticeably in recent seasons. He’s swiped just five bases this year, 20 short of his career-high 25 set back in 2021. It’s unlikely Bichette will ever return to those levels of thievery. His average sprint speed back in ’21 was 28 feet per second — faster than nearly four out of five big leaguers. This year, he’s averaging 26.2 ft/sec and sitting in just the 22nd percentile of MLB players, per Statcast.
Defense is going to be the biggest knock on Bichette in free agency. He’s never been a great defensive shortstop, and some teams will probably prefer him at second base from the jump. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-6) and Outs Above Average (-6) feel he’s been well below average with the glove this year.
Bichette can probably handle shortstop for another couple seasons, but it’s not likely that he’ll finish a long-term contract at the position. He’s not the same type of defender as well-compensated shortstops Willy Adames (seven years, $182MM), Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM), Javier Baez (six years, $140MM) and Trevor Story (six years, $140MM). However, he’s hitting the market earlier than any of those players did — ahead of his age-28 season. That extra year of his prime should allow Bichette, who’ll reject a qualifying offer, to land in the range of those other recent top-tier shortstops in free agency. If he sustains his absurd summer production (or anything close to it), he could push for $200MM or more.
3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox
Bregman isn’t technically a free agent yet, but barring some form of major injury in the final two months, he’s all but guaranteed to opt out of the remaining two years and $80MM on his contract. He’s not likely to secure another $40MM annual value — though you can argue that he didn’t truly get there anyhow, thanks to deferred money — but topping that remaining $80MM will be no problem.
This past offseason, Bregman spurned six-year offers from his incumbent Astros and the Tigers in order to take a short-term, opt-out laden deal that could get him back to the market after a strong year.
Mission accomplished.
He missed more than a month due to a quadriceps strain, but he’s shown minimal ill effects since returning. Bregman is hitting .295/.373/.533 in 295 plate appearances. He’s popped 15 home runs and picked up 20 doubles. The uncharacteristically low 6.9% walk rate he showed last year is back up over 9%, and his perennially low strikeout rate is sitting at 16.9%. His 18.8% chase rate on balls off the plate is eighth-lowest in MLB (min. 250 plate appearances), and his 86.8% contact rate ranks 22nd.
Bregman is a plus defensive third baseman who could certainly handle second base and could likely fill in at shortstop if needed. Front offices, coaching staffs and teammates all rave about his makeup, leadership and clubhouse impact. None of that is easily quantified, but there will unquestionably be teams who value him even more than his raw numbers suggest due to that intangible profile.
Bregman’s market was relatively limited last year as he came off a mixed bag of a season and contended with a qualifying offer. That won’t be the case this time around. The Red Sox will want him back, but the Tigers, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Mariners could all jump into the fray.
As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, the only position players in the past decade to secure contracts of five-plus years beginning at age 32 are Lorenzo Cain, DJ LeMahieu and Freddie Freeman. LeMahieu’s contract was stretched to six years for luxury tax purposes. Freeman got six years but with deferred money. Even on a five-year deal, Bregman would have a case for $150MM or more. Six years could very well be attainable, as could $200MM. Regardless, Bregman has a chance to top Freeman’s $162MM guarantee and take home the largest free agent deal we’ve ever seen for a player starting in his age-32 season.
4. Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
Speaking of 32-year-olds in line for prominent paydays, Valdez has left little doubt that he’s the top arm in this year’s class. He’s on his way to what would be a third sub-3.00 ERA in four years, having piled up 140 innings of 2.83 ERA ball. Valdez’s 25.4% strikeout rate would be the highest of his career in a 162-game season, and his 7.9% walk rate is better than league average for a fourth straight year (and south of 8% for a third straight).
On top of the consistency and strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, Valdez is one of the sport’s top ground-ball pitchers. This year’s 60.9% mark trails only the Angels’ Jose Soriano for the MLB lead not just among qualified starters, but among the 225 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 10 innings as a starter. He’s sitting 94.4 mph with his sinker, down from his 95.3 mph peak but up from last year’s average of 94.1 mph.
Valdez gives up more hard contact than the average starter, but so much of it comes on the ground that it’s more easily mitigated. Since moving into the Astros’ rotation full-time, he’s never allowed more than 0.86 homers per nine innings in a given season — this despite being a lefty whose home park features a short left-field porch for righty bats who hold the platoon advantage against him. And, in an era of five-inning starters and teams who are reluctant to let starters turn a lineup over for a third time, Valdez is a throwback. He’s averaged 6 1/3 innings per start not just in 2025 but over his past five seasons combined.
Were it not for the fact that Valdez will turn 32 in November, he’d be the No. 2 free agent on this ranking and comfortably projected for a $200MM contract. As it stands, he’ll be angling to become just the fourth pitcher to secure even a five-year deal in free agency beginning with his age-32 season (Contract Tracker link). A four-year deal for Valdez would surely clock in well over $100MM, but he should be expected to land five years and will have a real chance to join Zack Greinke as the only 32-year-old starter in recent memory to reel in six years. A deal in the $150-180MM range shouldn’t be a surprise, even after he inevitably rejects a qualifying offer.
5. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees
Through a series of one-year deals and opt-out opportunities, Bellinger keeps finding his way onto MLBTR’s Power Rankings. He was just off the early-season edition of this year’s rankings but has risen to the middle of the pack due to some down years from other free agents but, more importantly, a very strong all-around performance of his own.
Bellinger looked lost at the plate from 2021-22 while returning from shoulder surgery, but this is his third straight strong year with the bat. He entered play Wednesday slashing .276/.328/.496 with 20 homers and 10 steals. Bellinger has continually whittled away at his strikeout rate in recent years, to the point that he’s now one of the toughest strikeouts in the sport, sitting at just 12.9%. He doesn’t post the type of gaudy exit velocity numbers toward which today’s front offices gravitate, but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter for three years now despite a middling quality-of-contact profile.
The Yankees have used Bellinger across all three outfield positions and at first base. He’s graded out roughly average in center but is a plus in either outfield corner. Bellinger has only played 19 innings at first base this season, but he received strong grades when he played 431 innings there for the 2023 Cubs (+5 DRS, +1 OAA).
Bellinger holds a $25MM player option for the 2026 season. It comes with a $5MM buyout that he’ll receive if he declines. Even if it were a true $25MM decision rather than a net $20MM decision, Bellinger would easily turn the option down. He can’t receive a qualifying offer this time around, and despite how many straight offseasons he’s been a fixture on the free agent market, he’ll play the bulk of next season at just 30 years of age.
Bellinger would only be 35 at the completion of a five-year deal or 36 after a six-year pact. An annual salary north of $20MM for a 30-year-old corner outfielder who’s posted a .283/.337/.481 slash in nearly 1600 plate appearances since 2023 — particularly one who can capably handle center field or first base — should be attainable, which means Bellinger has a real chance to sign for more than $100MM on the open market this time around.
6. Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres
Cease hasn’t had the season he hoped in his final year of club control. He’s still showing the durability, plus velocity and swing-and-miss arsenal that make him so appealing, but the results haven’t been there for the former AL Cy Young runner-up. In 123 1/3 innings, he’s pitched to a 4.60 ERA that would stand as the highest of his career (excluding a partial season in his 2019 MLB debut).
That said, Cease’s 97.1 mph average four-seamer is his best since the shortened 2020 season and the second-best of his career. He’s generating more chases off the plate than ever before, and this year’s 15.9% swinging-strike rate is the largest of his career. Command issues plagued him for much of his time with the White Sox, but this is now two seasons with the Padres and two seasons with a walk rate comfortably south of 10%. He may “only” have average command (perhaps a slight bit below), but Cease is a durable flamethrower who misses bats with the best in the league. He’s punched out 30.6% of his opponents. Metrics like FIP (3.52) and SIERA (3.33) feel he’s as good as — if not better than — he’s ever been.
Cease is also incredibly durable. He’s never been on the major league injured list outside of a short stay on the Covid-related list in 2021. Since 2020, he leads Major League Baseball with 165 games started and is ninth with 897 2/3 innings pitched.
Cease will be 30 in December. A five-year deal would “only” run through his age-34 season. With a big season, he and agent Scott Boras could perhaps have pushed for a seven-year contract in excess of $200MM. This year’s uneven performance presents multiple paths he could pursue. Cease will receive a qualifying offer and is almost certain to reject. If he looks to max out, he could perhaps still secure a long-term deal but probably not for close to the money he’d hoped entering the year. We’ve seen Boras clients like Carlos Rodon and Blake Snell go the short-term/opt-out route in the past, and Cease is young enough that he could still command a notable long-term deal following the 2026 season if he went that route.
Still, these rankings are based on earning ceiling, and there’s a scenario where Cease finishes strong, looks to max out and winds up with six years and a hearty annual value. For power arms who can miss bats like this, teams are increasingly willing to look past a rocky ERA.
7. Ranger Suarez, LHP, Phillies
Though not as durable as Valdez has been, Suarez pitches deep into games and keeps runs off the board just like his fellow southpaw. He allowed five runs in a 6 1/3-inning start just this afternoon, one of his worst outings of the year, but still carries a 2.94 ERA in 107 frames. He averaged 5 1/3 innings per start back in 2022, jumped to about 5 2/3 innings per start in 2023-24 and is up to nearly 6 1/3 innings per appearance in 2025.
Suarez has been consistently good along the way, with roughly average strikeout rates, good command and well above-average grounder rates. In many ways, he’s a “lite” version of Valdez. He’s fanned 21.8% of opponents since 2022, issued walks at a 7.8% clip and turned in a 51.5% ground-ball rate. Back, hamstring and elbow injuries have limited his workload in that time, keeping him to 538 innings of regular season work.
The 2025 season has been Suarez’s best in terms of results. It’s also his second straight season with notable time missed due to a back injury, however. Suarez opened the season on the injured list due to lower back pain and wound up missing more than a month. His lower back also cost him a month in 2024 and two weeks in 2022. He’s an immensely talented pitcher, but three IL stints for his lower back in a span of four years isn’t ideal — especially since he’s had other injuries mixed in (most notably a 2023 elbow strain that cost him six-plus weeks).
Suarez doesn’t throw as hard as Valdez, sitting at a career-low 90.2 mph with his sinker this season. The declining velocity and recent troubles with back injuries are limiting factors, but Suarez is a steady No. 3 starter who’ll pitch nearly all of next season at age 30. There’s no reason he shouldn’t handily top Eduardo Rodriguez’s four-year, $80MM contract, and a five-year deal that pushes up closer to the Kevin Gausman/Robbie Ray territory of $110-115MM feels attainable.
8. Kyle Schwarber, OF/DH, Phillies
Schwarber is going to break plenty of precedent this offseason. He’s nominally an outfielder but has played 107 games at designated hitter this year. Maybe a team would plug Schwarber into left field early in a new contract, but a full-time move to DH probably isn’t too far down the road. Players with such minimal defensive value generally aren’t compensated well in free agency. Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez got four-year deals as designated hitters … back in 2014. J.D. Martinez got five years and $110MM with the Red Sox back in 2018, but deal came with the expectation of at least some part-time outfield play. He logged 493 innings in year one of the deal and 330 in year two.
Players with negligible defensive value like this have a hard time finding big money in free agency, but Schwarber is going to be an exception. He’s not “just” a designated hitter — he’s one of the best hitters on the planet. He still strikes out more than you’d prefer (26.9% after three punchouts on Wednesday), but he’s also belted 40 homers in just 506 plate appearances — his third 40-homer effort in the past four years. (He hit “only” 38 bombs in 2024.) Schwarber has walked at a 14.8% clip as well, and he’s hitting .256/.376/.585 overall — a massive 63% better than average, by measure of wRC+.
Statcast ranks Schwarber in the 99th or 100th percentile in each of the following categories: bat speed, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.
Earlier in his career, the book on Schwarber was that lefties could get him out. That’s not the case anymore — far from it. Schwarber has been well above-average against lefties dating back to 2021, including a colossal .278/.394/.656 slash (186 wRC+) in left-on-left matchups this season. He’s a .242/.341/.468 hitter in his past 1059 plate appearances versus southpaws.
On top of the gaudy on-base numbers and nearly unmatched power output, Schwarber is a beloved clubhouse presence whose teammates and coaches rave about what he brings to the team off the field. He’s going to be 33 next March, and while some teams will want to keep him to a high-AAV three-year contract, the offensive contributions have reached a point where it’s hard to envision less than four years. A fifth year isn’t even completely out of the question, even though he’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer.
9. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
The 2025 season has been a rollercoaster, but at the end of the day Alonso is having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s hitting .264/.352/.507 with 25 homers already, making him all but a lock to yet again top 30 homers — a feat he’s reached in each 162-game season of his career. Alonso’s walk rate is holding steady around 10%, and he’s cut a couple percentage points off his strikeout rate, which sits at 22.9%.
That’s far higher than the 14.6% clip he showed in a superhuman month of April, but it’s still right in line with the league average. Alonso did a lot of the heavy lifting for his season in March/April, but he also had a huge performance in June and is out to a nice start in August. July was his only truly bad month of the year from an offensive production standpoint.
Alonso is making more hard contact than ever (52.8%) and sporting career-high marks in average exit velocity (93.7 mph) and barrel rate (20.4%). His defensive limitations are obvious, and he’s never going to contribute much value on the bases. At the same time, he’s as reliable a source of 30-plus homers as nearly anyone in the game. Since he received a qualifying offer last winter, he’s ineligible to receive another one.
The two-year, $54MM contract Alonso signed last winter paid him $30MM this season with a $24MM player option for the 2026 campaign. If he and the Mets don’t agree to a longer-term deal between now and the time that option decision comes due, he’s a lock to turn it down and head back to the market. Much has been made of Alonso rejecting a seven-year, $158MM extension from the Mets several years ago. He’s already pocketed $50.5MM in salary in two years since turning that down, however, and bringing home another $107.5MM over the next five years doesn’t at all feel out of the question. We saw a 34-year-old Christian Walker land three years and $60MM last winter. He’s a better defender, but Alonso will play 2026 at age 31. A four-year deal worth around $25MM annually or a five-year deal in the $22-23MM range seems plausible.
10. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers
A new entrant on the list, Woodruff recently returned from a more than yearlong absence due to 2023 shoulder surgery. His velocity is down noticeably, but his results are elite and largely commensurate with his outstanding big league track record. It’s only a sample of 28 1/3 innings so far, but the 32-year-old righty has a 2.22 ERA, a 35.6% strikeout rate and just a 3.8% walk rate.
In the five seasons preceding his shoulder injury, Woodruff pitched to a combined 2.93 ERA in just under 600 innings. His strikeout and walk rates were both excellent, though not to the extent in his five-start sample this year. Woodruff averaged 96.3 mph with his fastball during that time, compared to just 93.2 mph in 2025, but it’s not unreasonable to think he could continue adding velo as he shakes off some rust. Woodruff’s four-seamer averaged 94 mph in his most recent start against the Nationals, for instance — his best in any start of 2025.
A 32-year-old who had a recent, major surgery is going to be capped in terms of contract length, but that could result in a bit of a bidding war when it comes to annual value. Nathan Eovaldi just got three years and $75MM beginning with his age-35 campaign this past offseason. Woodruff will be two years younger this offseason than Eovaldi was last winter.
This all hinges on how Woodruff finishes out the year, but if he keeps gaining velocity and/or wraps up his return campaign with an ERA in the low-to-mid 2.00s, there will be plenty of teams interested in adding a premium arm on a deal on a relatively short-term deal (three or four years). Woodruff technically has a $20MM mutual option, but he’ll receive a $10MM buyout when he declines his end in search of a long-term deal in free agency. The Brewers can then make him a qualifying offer, which he’d decline if he can sustain anything close to his current pace.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Edwin Diaz (opt-out), Jack Flaherty (opt-out), Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito (’26 club option becomes mutual option at 140 innings this year) Trent Grisham, Ryan Helsley, Michael King, Tyler Mahle, Munetaka Murakami (NPB), Cedric Mullins, Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn, Eugenio Suarez, Robert Suarez (opt-out), Gleyber Torres, Luke Weaver
A lot of current and former Cubs in this list.
Yep… at least Jed rewarded himself this trade deadline instead of improving the team!
Kyle Tucker or bust. Teams would be foolish to give him over $700 million though.
He’ll get half that. Dude’s too old to get more than an 8-year pact. But plenty of GMs have been stupid before….
It’s definitely goin be more then half of that though. Tucker is more then a $500 million dollar man. Probably $525-$550 million for 10 years. The Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Mets and others will all have interest. Thinking Cubs will probably lowball him.
I think the dodgers will be more than willing to drive that price up without actually signing him.
he is too old for the insane top end. I think it is 380 or something n that ballpark
I heard they are in the process of fueling up the plane for him to go to Toronto…
No way the Yanks are in on Tucker… not with Judge, Stanton, Dominguez, Spencer Jones still in the mix. More likely that they resign Bellinger for a fifth of that (5 years/$110 million or so).
Not-so-bold prediction: the Reds will go after none of these guys.
Framber and Cease aren’t injured enough for the Dodgers to pursue. Ranger doesn’t seem to have the super high upside they usually go for either.
Dodgers have like 8 big league SP that should be in the front of the rotation for most clubs. I doubt they make a run for any of the SP. They have some holes they could fill..
I think the Os go for one of the SP there- knowing Elias, it will more likely be Woodruff or Ranger.
Not many on this list I would want the Reds to pursue. Not to say some wouldn’t help short term but no thanks to 7-10 year contracts they would bring. Remember that most of these guys best years are behind them. Just a few years ago a lot of Cincy fans were screaming how Votto’s contract was weighing us down.
only about 5 of those guys (at most) will land north of a 6 year deal- and even then some will be 6 just to extend the luxury tax impact.
I bet you’re correct. As a matter of fact, I don’t think any Central teams will sign these guys.
I didn’t realize Gio’s opt-out kicked in at 140 IPs. It’ll be close, but he’s on pace to get there. But with a 2.63/3.84 ERA/FIP over his last 13 GS, he’s a pretty good candidate for a QO.
Justin Martinez basically showed that the line for a QO for a SP is not as high as we all thought it would be.
Can’t believe Gleyber is still south of 30.
Note ro my team: pursue none of these guys.
Bregman is such a good fit for the Red Sox so unless they are cheap he’s probably going to stay there
It would be funny if the Astros signed him and then traded for George springer
I still don’t see Bregman getting 6 more years. It will be high AAV with perhaps a perpetual add on if he stays healthy and performs but I still don’t see more than four years. Teams overpaying on the back end are for the early prime years.
Only way I see him getting that long of a term is if it’s very heavily frontloaded.
It would be better for the team if its backloaded. The dollar is worth less in 5-6 years than it is today. The dollar amount of the total contract matters the most to the team.
I understand time value of money, but if that’s the game someone wants to play they would be more interested in large deferrals than anything. If you are concerned about giving him a 6-8 year deal because you don’t think he’ll be a productive asset in 5 years, it makes plenty of sense to frontload so you can line up the bulk of his pay with expected production and make it less painful to eat the rest of the contract if at some point in the later years they have to move him to the bench or DFA him.
The TEAM would be better served by a backloaded contract. They don’t care one bit about lining up when they spend the money with the production. It’s less painful to give the money to the player later because the dollars are worth less.
The PLAYER wants the money upfront.
No team goes into a contract assuming they will have to eat a contract. They sign a player to a long-term contract knowing that they will benefit from surplus value early in the contract while having seasons near the end where the player provides as much or less value than they are being paid. It’s about value over the entire contract, not any single season, that they want to come out even or ahead on.
“It’s less painful to give the money to the player later because the dollars are worth less.”
-> Wrong, for a couple of reasons. First being most teams are going to be somewhat constrained in their spending by luxury tax considerations, and the CBT threshold is not adjusted for inflation. Frontloading/backloading are irrelevant to the CBT discussion, but to pretend nominal AAV does not matter is flat out wrong. If he hits the age cliff and becomes useless, that’s a double whammy because it’s $30-some million dollars less that the team has to work with in the year that happens while also needing to find someone else to replace that production. Secondly, they won’t be funding the entire contract, or future payrolls, with 2025 dollars. If they have to pay him to go away in 2030 with a couple years left on a deal, they’ll be paying him to do so with 2030 dollars, not 2025 dollars. They’d only benefit from TVM if they had set up a sinking fund in 2025 to take advantage of the difference, which most teams in most cases probably don’t. My understanding is they are only required to do this for deferred money. If you have evidence to the contrary, I would be interested to see it because I did try to look around for some and unsurprisingly didn’t find any.
“No team goes into a contract assuming they will have to eat a contract.”
-> You’re joking on this one, right? Everyone knows the history of how poorly most super long term deals age. Teams offer them anyway because they think the short term gain is worth the back end pain, but they know full well going in with most of these deals that they’re going to be dealing with bad money tied up in a non-productive asset who will need to be replaced before the deal is up.
And as a matter of fact, that actually contradicts your first argument about the time value of money. If you’re willing to offer an 8 year deal to a guy you think has 4 or 5 or 6 years left of being a very good player, because 8 is what it takes to get him to sign and having him on the team drastically improves your odds of competing for a World Series in that 4/5 year window, most teams are going to be happy to assume that risk, and in doing so you are demonstrating you don’t care about TVM at all because you are prioritizing the present over the future. And in that case, it would make no sense to factor time value calculations into your payroll obligations, then. It would make more sense to match cash flows to your “all in” window so it’s easier to wipe the slate clean when that window ends.
“No team goes into a contract assuming they will have to eat a contract.” (…) “It’s about value over the entire contract, not any single season, that they want to come out even or ahead on.”
-> These two ideas do not need to be mutually exclusive.
5/180 is probably a floor for him. 6/200 to lower the AAV.
I could see 6 at 150. He is already getting 2 for 80, so the sox would only be buying 4 years on the back end for another 70- and flatten the curve for luxury tax.
James, with the deferrals he is getting 2/60 in actual value. If there are no deferrals and he signs a 6 year deal it will be for north of $180 million. He will not be taking a cut in pay.
6/150 as an extension? He is getting $30 million now taking into account the deferrals, not $40 million, so there is almost no situation in which he takes less than that as an AAV
Getting team Stomp back together after their Vegas show?
Not sure how Bregman is such a good fit for the Red Sox. He was a good fit with the Astros too. He will be a good fit regardless where he signs because he a good player, both offensively and defensively. I do see the Red Sox as the favorite to sign him to a longer term deal.
The braves need at least one of the least probably all
I feel like the Braves could use 1 durable starter, so Valdez or Cease *could* be a fit- but Alex typically has been reluctant to go the number of years it takes to sign that type of pitcher.
However, the real need is going to be in the bullpen. There will need to be some heavy lifting done there.
Beyond that, they just need guys to stay healthy and a managerial change in the dugout. The core is plenty good enough to win.
Agree
There are some factors like Waldrep but they arguably need more than one durable starter. If they are gonna spend some money I don’t think the bullpen will be a huge deal to fix. Already have some nice arms with Jiminez returning possibly. But the rotation is a total mystery. Who knows what will happen with Holmes or Schwellenbach. Even if Lopez is healthy he is back where he was in 24′- not being built up to pitch a full season. There are so many questions marks and no easy answers. I expect a couple bullpen signings/trades and a durable, good SP, as well as a durable #4-#5 type. But even then can you absolutely guarantee the back end starter innings? Probably not.
They won’t be signing any of these guys. They can’t afford them. They play at the very bottom of the market like minor league free agents. That is why they are where they are.
Phillies…. resign Schwarber, Realmuto, Alonso and put Harper back in RF. Crawford and Painter on the team next year. Suarez leaves via free agency. As does Romano and Kepler……Alvarado is interesting – if he pitches well when he comes back, Phillies can pick up his $9MM player option.
Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, Luzardo, Painter, Walker starters
Duhan, Alvarado, Kerkering, Strahm, Banks….lead bullpen. …. Lazar, Johnson, Robert and others fill in.
Schwarber increase and Realmuto decrease might even out. Perhaps a bit more salary in total over 2025 levels. Sign Alonso – 3 -4 years $22MM per year.
Castellanos, Kepler and Romano leaving frees up $40MM.
Alonso, Stott, Turner, Bohm, Harper, Crawford, Marsh, Bader ($6MM mutual option??) Realmuto / Marchan, Schwarber, Sosa and then choose from Kemp, Wilson or bring in a new guy
Crawford and Painter come cheap….. Possibly look to extend Duhan?
You may want to rethink that strategy some.
you think they would have already put Harper in RF already if that was in the plans. Harper is a much better outfielder than Castellanos and there were plenty of 1b available. I think even Schwarber has some experience at 1b if you really need it but dont quote me on that. Could have even slid Bohm over from 3b to 1b and picked up Bregman in the offseason.
Also that 40M you freed up is 20M as Castellanos is still signed through 2026. Also dont forget you have Arb raises even with the 8M for Suarez leaving. Figured in reality that 40M is about 10M and thats not including both sides agreeing on the 10M mutual option on Bader if he doesnt hit any escalators that is.
So your about even roughly dollar wise with needing bullpen pieces and probably OF bench piece along with pitching depth while hoping Nola comes back to what he was and Crawford and Painter trying to quickly fill the shoes of Suarez. Also the team that was on the older side gets another year older.
I was going to say the same about Castellanos. I think the plan is that Painter and Crawford will save enough salary to offset the arb raises. They will QO Schwarber and Ranger. I think they will lose both. But the team will be good with that rotation and Duran, Alvarado and Kerkering in the pen.
I agree the original 40M did not include that and the numbers i backed out didnt include that but the 8M offset i dont think will cover the difference as you have 8 or 9 people in arbitration including Duran and Luzardo which will probably eat up alot of that 8M.
Just spitballing here as im no pro at this stuff but
Duran i can see getting 2M
Stott 1-2M
Bohm 1-2M i suspect more since last year of arb
Luzardo jumping atleast 4 maybe more also last year
that still leave 4-5 people assuming you resign all of them as non were obscenely bad and arbitration shouldnt be a huge increase probably 3-4 total increase depending on everything,
so Suarez is roughly 8 and reasonably/maybe a bit conservative too i would say around 13 mil increase for arbitration raises so roughly need another 5 million to cover the difference not including league minimum for painter and crawford.
They lose Schwarber they are toast…. no way he leaves
I appreciate the comments… But all those guys have a salary now. You think $8MM more on top of what they are earning now? and yeah, Castellanos would need to be traded for basically nothing. Harper has said he would go back to the OF for the right first baseman. I think that was Alonso….. no one available at the trade deadline to make that happen. Moving Bohm to IB and signing Suarez would have been a rental. Not interested in that…. And I don’t see anyone giving Alonso 6 / $150 for some of the reasons stated in the thread. But 3-4 years, guaranteed, playing in Philly? Especially if the Mets keep imploding? He’d have far more right center field homeruns in Philly . If not mistaken, Philly about 10 feet shorter…. What is going to make next offseason crazy is the threat of a lockout after 2026. I wonder what that is going to do for players and signing deals for the 2026 year and beyond.
Yes 8M in total over what they are making now because it is not just one player going to arbitration its 9 and thats less than 1M per person and there is usually atleast a little bump if even a couple 100k and with luzardo doing well and in the last year of arbitration i see him eating around half that atleast. and Duran is closing which probably gets him atleast 1M but im thinking more like 2M if he keeps up what he is doing. That right there is 5-6M with 2-3M remaining amongst 7 players.
Regarding alonso is a big thumper and i think someone might get in that range 6/130 as they hope he will continue 30+ HR and 100+RBI. I wouldnt but i think someone will make the desperate play especially with Boras involved. He had QO this year which lowered his value and he had competition with Walker this year and teams hoping for Vladdy Jr this year by trade or next year by FA. This year he has neither.
Bader will not be resigned since Crawford will make the team.
Bader / Marsh – LF…. and Crawford CF… with Rojas stashed in minors. Casty or Harper for the right infield replacement (Bohm at 3b or 1B and applicable 1b or 3b signed)
Trade Castellanos removes the payroll….. I understand that you’ll only get a bag of balls, but someone would take one year of that if needed.
Alonso is making $30M this season and has a $24M player option for next season. He won’t be signing for only $22M/AAV
Yeah, let’s just invent numbers and combinations. The Mets offered Alonso more than $22M per year last season. He wants a long term (6+ years) deal, and he wants close to $30M per year. He won’t get them. But he won’t sign for just $22M, either. He won’t have a QO attached to him this year, and he won’t have as much competition on the 1B market.
i dunno Geoff i could see him accepting a 6/130 if offered based on age and his season has been up and down although much better than prior season in aggregate.
I wouldnt offer it unless he tears up the rest of the way but as of right now i could see someone offering it. Especially the yanks if they fall out of the playoffs and wanting a big name thumper especially from the right side. Not sure how many teams with that much money are in the market outside of the Mets and Yankees for 1b so i could be completely misreading it and no multi team “secret team” bidding war.
I was responding t Philly6 who suggested Alonso would take 3-4 years at $22 per. 6/130 might be closer to reality just because of the longer term. But he was asking for a lot more than that last year. He’s still having a better year than last year, and is still on pace to approach 40 HRs. And he seems to place a lot of value in that, and his history of doing that consistently. Even if the market does not. His opting out of $24M would indicate he still thinks his worth is higher.
sorry my bad i missed the 3-4 years in his post just saw the 22M which i thought was not that far off.
Its more the age that will drop his price as he is not going to get what he was asking last year even if he keeps up this pace. i dont want to see the same story like last year for him and it just draws out until preseason. the opting out of the 24M doesnt mean that much as he could even get another 2 year opt out type deal worth more. Its just injury insurance or really bad season insurance (ala montas).
Would you agree that his 2025 performance has been worth the $30 million he made this season? Why would be accept less then $30 million AAV on a long term deal?
Alonso should get more than $130 million on a 5-year deal. He is making $30 million this season, so that is the floor. Closer to $150 million. If he gets 6 years, increase that number.
No, I would not agree that his performance has been worth $30 million this season. Besides, the key is the length of the contract. The expectation is that RH hitters who rely mostly on power will fade as they go further into their 30’s. His ups and downs this year have demonstrated that the perceived resurgence he seemed to be having earlier in the year were just a flash of streakiness on which a team cannot rely. His HRs come in clusters, and when he is bad, he is almost a hole in the lineup. Still a productive player, overall, and worth having at the right price. But not $30 million.
$30 million is not the floor – it is at best, a ceiling. He got that much because of extenuating circumstances – an insanely rich owner who wanted to put a deal to bed, and bring back a fan favorite in order to follow up on a run where they team overachieved and reached the LCD.
If anyone believed he was worth a long-term investment, they would have made one in him. If they thought $30M was his real value, then the 2nd year of the deal would not have been for just $24 million.
The $30 million was a one-off that the Mets did simply because they could afford to.
Would you agree that his 2025 performance has been worth the $30 million he made this season? Why would be accept less then $30 million AAV on a long term deal?
I would disagree that he is worth the 30M AAV unless maybe its a 1 year deal (shorter deals = higher aav) … i would also disagree that he even signed a 30M AAV since it is based on 2 year 54M which is 27M AAV. In reality its 20M salary for 2025 with a signing bonus worth of 10M.
Sounds like the Padres are lining up to pay Walker Buehler 21M AAV for multiple years to help fill in the rotation with losing King Cease and to lesser extent Cortez. Why would buehler accept less then $21 million AAV on a long term deal and the padres could welcome the pitching with those departing.
I agree with the “ Schwarber increase and Realmuto decrease might even out.” I really want them to resign both those guys. Trade Casty for anything you can get and keep going big = TUCKER
No way they get Tucker ..too big of a contract…
I wouldn’t break the bank on any of them myself.
For my money, I would like the Tigers to pursue Bellinger. With Javy having two more years under contract and guys like McGonigle and Rainer in the minors, don’t see them going after Bichette. Plus his contract could be too rich for their blood. Bellinger’s likely deal is more in line with what the Tigers can afford. Bellinger fills an OF need for them, though makes them even more LHH dominant and seems more affordable. Put him in RF with Greene in left and Meadows in CF and that is one good defensive OF. 3B could be handled by Keith as his arm appears to have healed well enough from that shoulder issue a few years back, and they have Lee, Jung, and Anderson in the minors to play 2B. If they don’t think he is quite ready could see if Torres would re-up. He has liked his stay in Detroit so far. Then go after some good BP arms, there will be a few on the market this off season.
Meadows might be living on borrowed time with Max Clark nearly ready.
Carpenter might be a trade piece this off-season.
As much as I’d love some slug at 1B for Boston, I wouldn’t break the bank for Alonso.
I think King might end up being the steal of this list. Most of those pitchers listed would be a boost to the staff.
Bregman probably won’t get much of an offer from BOS unless the lovefest ends up with a WS trophy. It’ll likely be Beltre 2.0.
Was surprised king didn’t make the top 10
I wouldn’t want Alonso at any price.
I also think King is the best option available both in absolute terms and aging curve.
How would a possible lock out after next season affect this year’s class of free agents?
I think it is going to put a real freeze on extensions. that said if I had a player like a Skubal I very well might offer a 304/8 year deal (38 AAV) which would surely get their attention.
I agree, but I think it needs to be front loaded. $50M the first three years and then $30.8M for the last five. Club friendly and he’ll have enough to get his dream car the first year.
That’s pure speculation. Players still get paid during a lockout but none during a work stoppage.
Can we see your ideas on the bottom tier of free agents, so we know who the Pirates will be going after?
We don’t know who they are. The list of non-tenders won’t be out for a few months yet.
Cherington didn’t trade 3 guys who will be UFA’s after the season yet none made this list. Not even an honorable mention. A microcosm of the Pirates universe.
And he traded Bednar, Hayes and Falter for guys who won’t be here for years if they ever get here at all
If you tried to run a franchise into the ground, you couldn’t do a better job
Worth noting that in comparing Bichette with the 4 SS’s with better defense, Bo has a notably better offensive profile then any of them. It’s not just his younger age, but also his bat that gives him the chance for more money.
Also, if/when he moves to second, his current wRC+ of 126 would make him the second best hitting second basemen behind only Ketel Marte. If his defense improves after moving to second (which seems likely), he’d still offer a lot of value, even if second base in general isn’t valued as much as shortstop.
Hey Canuckle, agree on Bo, I actually think the Jays extend him prior to the end of the season! Really sucks that Sportsnet.ca decided to eliminate the comment section right before the trade deadline, i am floundering trying to find somewhere to comment!!! Got any suggestions???
Why would he not if the dollars and term meet his expectations? Jays allow him to go to FA’cy and all they get back is a QO pick for he would surly decline the QO and as has been seen not every one gets paid in free agency. some sit there all off season and then take what they can get.
I will agree to disagree as we seem to have our own opinions on the matter and i will not be changing mine!!!
Put this one in your notebook so you remember!
Only because Toronto hasn’t been great at getting free agents to sign, so they might overpay in advance to keep him.
Toronto will want to pre-empt him getting to the market. I’m sure his agent, as well as the team, are trying to figure out what a suitable number is for their side.
My only hope is that he stays somewhere other than Canada for free agency. If only for the “he’s on his way to Toronto!”
And he would have value being able to play both positions.
I would love to see the giants pickup framber, the webb, valdez combo would be one of the most massive ground ball heavy tops of a rotation you could imagine
Then add Beau and Alonso and you can have a bad defense to go with the extra ground balls!
Michael King?
Murakami’s 25. Will no team give him a longer-term deal to push up the total $ ? Or will posting fees drive down his offers?
@highflyballintorightfield
He’s signing with the Yankees.
I think Tucker is way over rated
He and Volpe have the same number of at bats and the same number of runs batted in
But hey, I only have five years of data analysis in my career so what so I know
Cm1
“I only have five years of data analysis in my career”
RBI huh?
RBIs, lol. Tucker will get $500 million and he deserves it, compared to what other guys have been getting.
Then you would know that RBI and Runs depend on your teammates.
You would know that with Men On Base he is hitting .309/ .432/ .503
Right?
My research shows 256 avg RISP
You need to do better research
cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184352/kyle-tucker/spli…
CM1
“My research shows 256 avg RISP
You need to do better research”
5 years in days analysis and you don’t understand the concepts of sample size and random variation
Or, you’re a liar?
Which one?
Are you serious ?
PS, I don’t lie
Cm
“Are you serious ?”
Yes. Very.
Can you, as a person with 5 years of data analysis in your career, explain why you think Tucker is overrated?
If it’s because of RBI and a .256 batting average with RISP, can you expand on that a little bit. Specifically in regards to sample size and random variation?
Cm
“PS, I don’t lie”
Almost forgot this
I do not believe
1) that you don’t lie.
2) that you work doing data analysis.
Not for a second. You certainly haven’t demonstrated any knowledge of the subject. The opposite, in fact.
RISP
2025
.261/.404/.386/.790
baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=tucke…
Career
.294/.389/.513/.902
baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=tucke…
Men on Base
2025
.308/.431/.497/.928
Career
.307/.388/.562/.949
Same links as above.
I don’t give a rats Pile what you believe
Cm
“I don’t give a rats Pile what you believe”
I care about what you believe though
“Can you, as a person with 5 years of data analysis in your career, explain why you [believe] Tucker is overrated?
If it’s because of RBI and a .256 batting average with RISP, can you expand on that a little bit. Specifically in regards to sample size and random variation?
Hah who goes to CBS Sports for their stats?
Diaz has wayyyyy more saves than Framber Diaz but isn’t even on the list??? But what do I know. I only have 6 years of data analysis experience at work.
It is clear to me that many fans think like the people that put together the Rockies roster…..
And that is why the Rockies have a horrible record
I’ll take players that the Guardians won’t sign for $100
Sorry, $100 is a bit too much here.
Luis Arraez didn’t make honorable mention? His numbers are down, but that average and low K% is still going to draw plenty of suitors.
He’ll only be 29 on opening day, have to assume he’s able to bring in at least 50 M$ this winter, which would put him up there with other honorable mentions – probably top 20 amongst free agents in total future guaranteed earnings this winter.
I’ll go the under. He’s a one-dimensional player who hits singles and doesn’t strike out sitting at 100 OPS+ and 1.1 WAR. Not every team values that.
All it takes is one team to think his 2025 season is a down season and not the norm. He’s making 14M$ this season in his final arb season for a reason. His BAbip this year is 40 points below his career and he’s playing in pitchers parks right now. His ability to play multiple positions and his youth should boost his total contract value.
Park factors shouldn’t matter as he’s a singles hitter. I’m not dumping on him as he’s a unique player in today’s game but he’s not as valuable as you may think.
We shall see in a couple of months.
Those arguments are a bit thin, mrkinsm. I’m speaking generically here, and not doing a deep dive on his numbers, but…
OPS+ takes ballpark factors into account, and Arraez’ is still just 100. In his career year of 2023 in Miami, he hit just 10 HRs in over 617 PAs. He’s got 6 this year in 480 PAs. So it doesn’t look as if the ballpark is the factor here.
BABIP is no longer regarded as strictly a function of luck. Things like exit velo, barrel rate, hard hit rate are all contributing factors. What is Arraez doing in those areas: are those numbers down, too? And has he been trending down since last year? Those factos will affect how teams see him and, by extension, his value.
He is not a singles hitter.
Teams never take just one season into account. They typically take the last 3-4 seasons with the most recent season weighted heaviest.
Arraez has a 117 OPS+ from 2022-today. Since the beginning of July he has a 120 OPS+. If he continues to hit at that pace the rest of the season, he will end up at a 116-117 OPS in 2025.
BABip is a measure of luck. Absolutely. Especially when they are much lower than in the past as they are for Arraez this season. exit velo and hard hit rate need other factors to even be considered. Such as LD and FB rate and pull GB rate.
Tony Gwynn had his lowest HH% in 1997, a season he hit .372 and had a career high 17 HR and 49 doubles. MOST of the time he was peppering balls down the LF line for doubles and of course through the 5.5 hole for singles. Ted Williams told him he needed to turn on the inside pitch and pull it for a HR, and we saw that he did that season. He just hit the ball the other way far more often and 152 of his 220 hits were singles.
Teams don’t overvalue batting average now, like they did back in the day.
Arraez ranks top 25 in doubles since the beginning of the 2022 season. 14th in OBP. #1 in BA. Over that time frame he has averaged 2.7 bWAR with a b4.6 WAR season and 4.1 bWAR season in there, and averaged 3.2 bWAR per 162 games. That is top 50 in MLB.
Yeah, I don’t see any chance he signs for less than 4 years and 50M$, unless he takes like a 20M$ 1 year deal – which I find unlikely.
Arraez is not going to make premium dollars. Teams don’t value his skills enough. Could be a good buy low guy for someone.
WBWR
“Arraez is not going to make premium dollars”
He’s not a premium player.
-Good, not great offense (108 wRC+ the last two seasons)
-minimal defensive value (1B/DH this year)
-minimal base running value (negative BSR 4 consecutive seasons)
“Teams don’t value his skills enough. ”
His skills aren’t that good.
Prior to 2024 when he was putting up 115 to 130 wRC+ numbers, he was an average to better player.
Now, he’s not.
I agree. I was softening the reply. I personally think his value is less than he is getting paid.
Wild, if you mean Arraez isn’t going to get a $25+ million AAV, you are absolutely correct. He will absolutely get a long-term deal for more than $10 million AAV. Even if he doesn’t do any more than what he has done so far this season, something around 6-7 years and $11-12 million AAV is almost a certainty. If he continues to hit like he has since the All Star break he will get more.
I agree that Arraez should get more than $10 million AAV, but not a 6 year contract.
5+ year contracts are for pre-arb, or arbitration players, or for free agents that are expected to produce more than 2.5 WAR annually over the next 5+ years. Arraez is not one of them.
More than 70% of all 5+ year contracts have been signed by players with 6 or more years of service time since 2000.
Arraez is going into his age 29 season in 2026. Arraez has averaged more than 2.5 WAR the past 4 seasons with a 4.6 WAR and a 4.1 WAR season among those 4. He is on pace to get 2.0 WAR this season, MLB average, even though he has played 91 games at 1B (-9.5 runs in WAR calculation. Only DH at -15 runs depresses a player’s WAR more) and 19 at DH.
So you agree with me that “or free agents…”. As for WAR, teams put more weight on the recent years. The game has changed, there are no more shifts. There is more emphasis on second basemen defense. Arraez is a first baseman now, which affects his WAR.
Arraez is on pace for about 1 fWAR. It’ll be 2 years in a row of about 1 fWAR. Arraez will have averaged about 1.8 fWAR for the seasons 23-25. There is a miniscule chance that he gets a contract for 6 seasons.
FWAR is useless. It counts what a player was expected to do, not the actual results.
Arraez is on pace for MLB average bWAR or 2.0. He will have averaged 2.7 b WAR for 2023-2025 if he is able to achieve 2.0 bWAR this season.
Something neither WAR nor you are taking into account is one of Arraez strengths. Shildt has mentioned it several times in pressers over the past 2 seasons. Pads Fans mentioned it in this thread. Productive outs. That means runners moved up during his at bats that resulted in outs. In 43.4% of his outs with the Padres and 42.9% this season, the runner was advanced. MLB average is 27.0%. 2nd best in baseball is 34.6%. It’s a huge deal to teams. Fans not so much. Fans typically don’t understand the game well enough to even know what it means let alone its importance in terms of run expectancy.
WSS, How do you mean? In what way does fWAR count what a position player was expected to do, rather than their actual results?
He’s not on pace for 2.0 bWAR, unless you’re saying he gets over 700 PA this season.
Productive outs has a minimal affect on team wins. It’s productive not to make an out. Look at the graph in the middle of this article. It actually shows a slight negative correlation for 2022.
azsnakepit.com/2023/1/20/23557292/unimportance-of-…
If he gets 4 at 50 then he’s a top 25 free agent and should be mentioned in the HM section.
How about going to Fangraphs itself and reading what they say about how they calculate WAR.
Arraez is 14th in OBP since 2022. He makes an out less often than 98.9% of MLB players.
Moving up a runner increases run expectancy. That is a good thing.
Add the two together and its an exceptionally good trait to have. Its really sad that you are trying to argue that its not extremely valuable when MLB managers and actual data say that it is.
Arraez is hitting .359/.398/.457/.854 since the All Star break and .317 with a .772 OPS since the beginning of July. If he continues to hit at the .317/.772 pace through the end of the season he will end up between a 2.2 and 2.3 WAR.
I did and it doesn’t fit your claim. So you don’t have anything to support your claim.
Baseball reference won’t use 2022 in their projections for 2026. Productive outs are beneficial, but the factor is very minimal, and you haven’t addressed the article I gave
As of now, Arraez projects to about 1.8-1.9 bWAR.
How many free agent position players signed a 6+ year contract in 2024-2025 offseason? Ans. 2.
What were their bWARs in 2024? 7.9 and 3.1
Wrong, but thanks for trying…again.
True, I overestimated. Rright now Arraz projects to about 1.7 bWAR.
Baseball Reference, the last time I checked, used the Marcel projection system, which only uses the last 3 years, which would be 2023-2025.
Luis Arraez has a 0.546 OPS in his last 15 games.
*last 7 games.
No one agrees with you.
You haven’t given any evidence to prove your claim.
Nobody agrees that Arraez gets a 6 year deal.
mrk
I’ll also take the under. Way under.
Two consecutive seasons with meh offense and no defensive value?
He’d be fun in Colorado. He never walks or K’s so Colorado’s huge outfield and inflated BABIP park factor (113 Batting Average on Contact) would allow him to drop in maybe a couple hundred hits in a season.
Hell, let them get Murakami too. Let him launch some homers there and hide his whiffs (at least until he goes on the road and the ball starts dancing on him).
I could see a 2B-needy team going 3 years for Arraez, but his skills (including his only good one) seem to be rapidly diminishing. I love him as a throwback player, but he’s just not that valuable.
2 years and $25-30M is generous.
Could see that with a player option on Y1. It’s gonna be a really interesting FA profile.
3 years. LMFAO. Arraez is 28. He has multiple 4 WAR seasons under his belt when he was playing mostly 2B. His skills wont erode until after his age 35 season, possibly not at all since he isn’t a power hitter. He is going to get a long term deal.
Probably closer to $80 million. 6-7 years and $11-12 million AAV.
That’s way too long for a guy already in the 1% percentile for bat speed and doesn’t draw walks.
Watch and learn.
He hits for average.
He hits doubles in top 25 in baseball.
He gets on base in top 15 in baseball.
He doesn’t strike out. Lowest percentage since either you or I have been alive.
He is 50% higher than the league in productive outs. He puts the ball in play and moves players over.
He squares the ball up. 100th percentile.
ALL of those are skills that won’t erode until after his age 35 season. Expect him to be signed through his age 34 or 35 season, so a 6-7 year deal.
He won’t take much of a pay cut in terms of AAV off the $14 million he is making this season and if he continues to hit like he has since the All Star break he won’t take a cut at all.
IF he signs a short term deal, expect a significant raise with an opt out after 1 year, making him a FA again going into his age 30 season. 2/32.5 – 35 makes sense.
If he gets 3 years I won’t be surprised. If he gets 4 I will. Anything more than 3/$40M would surprise me. Definitely an interesting guy to watch this off-season as he is kind of a unicorn.
If Arraez wasn’t coming off back to back down offensive seasons he’d be in a much better spot:
2022 – 132 OPS+
2023 – 129 OPS+
2024 – 106 OPS+
2025 – 102 OPS+
I doubt anyone is going to give him more than a 40m guarantee. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the offers are so lackluster that he takes a two year deal that allows him to re-enter free agency next off-season.
His lone hope for getting a 6 or 7 year deal is from Preller and thankfully I don’t think he’ll be in a position to do that. Take a reasonable contract length, multiply it by 200% and voila.
You do realize that his “down” seasons are still above league average, right?
He has hit at a 120 OPS+ clip since the ASB. If he continues to do so, his OPS+ in 2025 will be 116-117 and since the beginning of 2022 it will be 117.
He will absolutely get more than $40 million. If he signs a short term deal, he will get close to $40 million for 2 seasons, which is why every publication and TV/radio personality is talking about a 6/72 or higher total dollar deal for him. Dan O’Dowd just said a few days ago that a deal similar to the 7/80 contract Cronenworth signed was probable.
Cronenworth was a terrible deal.
Hindsight is 20/20. When Cronenworth signed that extension prior to the 2023 season coming off 4.8 and 3.8 WAR seasons in 2021 and 2022 it was universally considered a bargain. Remember, that extension didn’t START until the 2024 season.
Since then the prices have gone up. The average salary for all MLB players in 2025 is $5,160,245 and for players signed as a FA it is $15.692 million.
When players are slightly above average offensively and offer minimal defensive value they typically don’t get super long term deals. That is especially true for a 105 OPS+ 1b/DH.
Not only will he not get 2/40m, he likely (like 98.5% likely) doesn’t even get a QO… just like Profar and Kim didn’t last year. They don’t have the budget to risk that.
If he resigns with SD I would imagine it would be for 3-4 years and a modest AAV (9-11m) with opt outs after each season. See the deals Preller signed Jurickson Profar, Nick Martinez and Wandy Peralta to.
With the Padres (260 games) he has a total of 1.8 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR. That’s not a guy worth 20m/yr or a 6 or 7 year deal.
I would love to see the Rockies take a shot with Bichette at second base. Or third base. The Rockies are set at short with Ezequiel Tovar, but it would be nice to not have Kris Bryant be the last major free agent signed for the team. Bo Bichette will not turn the team around immediately by any means, but it would be a nice start getting a legacy player in the fold.
Unless they are overshooting the 2nd best offer by a ton, why would he want to play for them. These guys want to win.
He is not signing with the 2025 Rockies, he would be signing with the 2026 Rockies. The 2026 Rockies are currently 0-0 and tied for first place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks and Rangers went from 100 losses to the World Series in just two years. It doesn’t take long to turn around if you try.
hf
I only bet on myself.
But, it would be hard for me to resist if the bet was “Will the Rockies be in the MLB World Series in 2027?”.
Having Bichette and Holladay in COL in a couple of years would be pretty cool. It’s not hard to envision the Rockies turning a big corner in the not too distant future especially if they hit on their recent high upside #1 picks.
Add a year and 25m to the next highest offer and that might do it. His approach with that big @$$ outfield would be an amazing hit.
No way Bregman opts out. He has 2 years $80 mil. So all he would need is to beat 3/$70 mil.once that contract ends.
No chance a 32 year old gets $200 million when a 31 year old didn’t…
If he has a good 2 months there is zero reason for him not to opt out. He stays, risks injury or decline, and loses big time.
Shane bieber
If Bregman stays healthy there is close to 100% chance he opts out. He put up a 116 OPS+ in his age 31 season. so far in his age 32 season he has a 148 OPS+. He is going to get paid tall stacks of cash.
Murakami is a human highlight reel at the plate.
I’m not sure that Nathan Eovaldi at 75 million is a good comp for any pitcher, the A’s had to spend money and had to overpay to get him.
I don’t see any of these guys being worth anywhere close to what they’re asking. Scott Harris is wise to sit this one out and bide his time to 2027…
We all know: it’s a Commie conspiracy to ruin baseball; to ruin America!
None have even hit 20 home runs yet. None hit over .300!
DEVALUING THE DOLLAR.
Commie sports writers….trying to sell rag
Bring back the Apple Pie!
Shock value. Player X is worth, “How much money?”
It sold news, maybe it will sell tickets…
advertising…….
It’s like paying a dozen girls to scream at the Rolling Stones show…..
Next thing you know, they’re like 80 years old and calling themselves the greatest rock and roll band on Earth and America near worships them….. (that’s because you never got to hear my band or the thousands of other American rockers – rocker = now taking on new meaning)
Remember…..
They paid those girls to scream……
What is your favorite Kool-Aid flavor? Or do you just mix them all together?
Lluis Arraez gets an honorable mention from me.
Arraez is making $14 million this season and is only 28 years old, so 6-7 years at $11-12 million AAV is what I have been reading he should command in FA. That is unless he continues to hit at the .349/.393/.434/.827 pace he has been on since the All Star break. Then maybe something closer to $14-15 million range for an AAV.
He is one of those enigmas. Teams do not value BA highly, but they do value OPS and his OPS since the beginning of July is .780.
I hope the Padres re-sign him to nice long contract.
I thought Realmuto would be an honorable mention. No catcher on either list. The Phillies have no Plan B.
Realmuto will be going into his age 35 season. He will get a deal, but not one long enough to take his total dollars into the level the top 10 guys here will earn.
King will get 5-6 years and well into 9 figures and he doesn’t even make the top 10.
MLBTR believes teams will be spending tall piles of cash on free agents this off-season just in time to lock the players out prior to the 2027 season.
Tucker will get $400+ million. Twice what anyone else will earn.
I wonder where Bichette will be playing 2B next season for his $200-210 million? His defense at SS hurts his value.
Bregman will make $2-5 million more than $30 million AAV without deferrals. The only question is if he will get 5 or 6 years. 5 years at $35 million AAV is $175 million. 6 years brings that to $210 million. Both are realistic.
Cease and Valdez are probably looking at similar 5-year deals, although Cease may take a deal for less with an opt-out after the 1st season.
I am surprised that King is not on the list, and I think that $25 million AAV is a given for him after 4 straight seasons under a 3.00 ERA. I would prefer him to Cease in terms of performance. Cease stays healthy and that has real value.
Schwarbs is the sleeper here. A team with a younger core and the financial capacity with the foresight to see value in someone after they hang up the cleats will absolutely push the chips in. Someone who wants to win will outbid Philly.
I wonder if 4×25 is enough to keep Schwarbs in Philadelphia.
This is a hell of a free agent crop, and with the ’26-’27 class being weak, this is the time to spend. Jed, I’m looking in your direction.
Is it too much of a hot take to put forth that Bo in the end may be as good as or better than Vlad?
I know that I am in the minority here because he is not even in the Top 10 of free agents on this list , but I would really rather have Josh Naylor than Cody Bellinger and maybe even Pete Alonso. I love the intangibles that Naylor brings with his presence in the clubhouse, his competitiveness on the field, his glove and his base running, shocking how many stolen bases he has because he is so smart. In my opinion, he also puts the ball in play more than both of those two and as a Mariners fan I am begging for them to sign him to a 3 to 4 year deal. He is only 28.