Orioles closer Felix Bautista and starter Zach Eflin are done for the remainder of the season, interim manager Tony Mansolino announced to the team’s beat Tuesday (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). Eflin is undergoing a lumbar microdiscectomy procedure, and the news on Bautista is even more ominous. Mansolino revealed that his closer, who was originally placed on the IL with shoulder inflammation on July 24, has sustained a “significant shoulder injury.” The team is still in the process of formalizing a diagnosis and treatment plan. He has another appointment to evaluate the injury later this week.
It’s a brutal development for the 30-year-old Bautista, who’s in his first season back after missing the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery. He’s posted excellent results, logging 34 2/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball, though there have been some modest red flags in his broader profile. Bautista averaged 99.5 mph on his four-seamer before surgery but has scrapped that pitch entirely in favor of a sinker that’s sitting more than two miles per hour shy of that prior velo mark (97.2 mph average). Meanwhile, his already high 11% walk rate from 2023 has exploded to 16.2% in his return campaign.
The obvious hope is that Bautista can avoid undergoing a second major surgery. To be expressly clear, Mansolino did not suggest that shoulder surgery is presently being considered, though any time a team official describes a “significant” injury for a pitcher and second opinions are being sought, that type of fear is natural. Ideally, Bautista could take the remainder of the regular season and the offseason to rest and rehab ahead of the 2026 campaign, but the outlook will remain uncertain while the O’s gather additional opinions.
The Orioles control Bautista through the 2027 season. He’ll finish out the current season with exactly four years of major league service time. Bautista is earning $1MM this year and will be owed a raise in arbitration. Even if the injury impacts his availability for Opening Day 2026, the O’s are still all but assured to tender him a contract, given that he’d be affordably priced for the 2027 season as well.
As for Eflin, the forthcoming back surgery ends what’s been a nightmare season for the talented righty. The 31-year-old is in the final season of a three-year, $40MM contract originally signed with the Rays. He pitched to a 3.54 ERA in 353 innings over the first two seasons of the pact but has only made it to the mound 14 times this year due to back and lat injuries. He’s been rocked for a 5.93 ERA in 71 1/3 innings when healthy enough to pitch — his worst production since an 11-start run with the Phillies in 2017, before he’d established himself as a credible big league starter.
Eflin is slated to reach free agency for the second time in his career at season’s end. There’s no immediate timetable for his recovery, but ending a dismal season with a lower back surgery isn’t the way any free agent wants to head back to the open market. He’ll be relatively young for a second-time free agent who’s already signed one multi-year deal, with his 32nd birthday in April, but Eflin seems likely to be in line for a short-term deal that’ll demonstrate his health and allow him to get back to the market next winter.
At some point we have to have some good news for us, right?
Not with Elias commanding the Helm
He is Bad News personified
Hi this is Jon,from Jon breaks bad news
Not going to lie, tonight really should be the last straw. He did well rebuilding a depleted farm system, but then he sabotaged the team with a nothing offseason this past year. Literally no one, not even the most diehard fans thought it was adequate. And now once again the offense is struggling, you could bring up some young guys who are knocking at the door offensively at the very least but you want more years to control them yes? Well you just lost a year of control on your current MLB roster this year with your lack of preparation. If I shook my head any harder I’d break my damn neck at this point.
Scruff — Revising history, huh? Literally everyone Did think the off-season was “adequate” (if not better), since most folks had the Orioles in the post-sesson at the start of Spring Training.
This season is shocking Because they were expected to do better. The season wouldn’t be shocking if it was predicted/predictable…by Anyone (diehards included).
It’s okay to be disappointed/upset that your expectations were not meet this year (I was too). You’re upset Because you believed in this team this year…not because you ‘knew it since the off season’ that this would be the outcome. You’d be gloating/flaunting your acumen at predicting something every one else didn’t see coming if you (and everyone) had known this outcome for the Orioles.
It’s all gonna be okay man. There’s still 2 more years of Adley, 3 more years of Gunnar, 4 more of Jackson, Cowser, Westberg, Heston, 5 more of Mayo, and 6 more of Basillo!
((Not to mention the entire Extra draft class Mike added at the trade deadline…no love for making the most of the deadline (again!), huh? Lemme guess, you knew all along that the Trevor Rogers trade would work out also??))
This year sucks, no doubt, but it ain’t Mike E, and it wasn’t Brandon Hyde either. …but it might be Grayson’s or Heston’s fault (jokes).
A voice of reason! Thank you so tired of all the negativity. Literally heard zero complaints about Elias before this season. Now he’s bad? I don’t get it
We have been the most injured teams by far this year and for the first six weeks of the season 7/9 position players were playing below replacement level.
Please tell me how any gm can prepare for that
I don’t know about you or “everyone” you’re talking to, but when I saw they replaced a cy young candidate with two 35+ year olds (one of which never played in this league), and hoping that their injured pitchers would return to make up the difference I thought it was a terrible offseason. You gambled that folks would be either healthy or return to being healthy and productive. That gamble did not pay off. Rogers turning in an outstanding season is something I didn’t expect for sure. But that itself has been wasted. Sure you have some control remaining for your current young position players. However, what is your pitching rotation? Unreliable and injured or returning from injuries. I don’t blame Hyde at all personally, this is definitely not his fault, I didn’t always like every decision he made but a lot of this is on Elias. At the very least it is for this season. Eflin has never been the most sturdy/reliably healthy pitchers. O’Neill has always landed on the IL for some reason or another.
We have for sure been completely destroyed by injuries but the pitching rotation was never actually supplemented for guys who were already injured going into the offseason not to mention a cy young candidate whose production didnt get replaced. You went into a season with a signing of Sugano and Morton. Hoping that Grayson would return from injury and perform up to what you think he can. hoping that Eflin would continue to stay healthy, which he hasn’t. Hoping that Rogers would turn the corner and perform up to his talent, which he has. Hoping that Povich would improve, he’s been hurt so the jury is still out on him. Kremer has done exactly what you expect from him. Is this really a solid offseason that you anticipate leads to competitiveness?
Listen man, I didn’t insult you or your opinion. But you did insult me and my take. The least you could do is provide a counter argument.
I’m with you. Why is everyone so negative? We know that the O’s will be back on top next year. They did it last year and therefore will automatically do it again next year. There’s too much talent on this team to finish like this again. Which other team has a pitching staff as good as ours? Which other team has as many prospects? Fact, stockpiling prospects always leads to a World Series appearance. Always! Stop be a negative, we are fine.
Wow. This is harsh. What’s the matter sunshine?
You are trying to connect the horrendous season and a team trying to be smart about call-ups to not simply “want more years of control” but to also preserve their eligibility for prospect promotion incentives. You may not agree with or like it, but it is undoubtedly the correct move for the long term viability of the club. You don’t call up prospects a couple weeks early, at this point, just because the team is struggling offensively in an already lost season. You wait the last couple of weeks and then bring them up. It not only allows the current core the experience in finding ways to not only get through tough stretches together but to also enforce the idea that it is their team and allow them to continue growing into leadership roles. Then you bring Basallo and Beavers up, once you know that their eligibility for the PPIs and rookie status is safe for 2026. They then get the last few weeks to experience the game at the highest level and the time to gel and build relationships with the core players. Everyone goes into the offseason with experience and the expectation that next year is a clean slate and winning is the goal.
Elias can absolutely be criticized for this past offseason, but it’s also important to understand that the entire thing is not completely within his control. He offered more money per year over a shorter term than Arizona and it didn’t work out. It also hasn’t worked out well for Arizona and Burnes either. Had he signed Burnes and he went down like he did, requiring Tommy John and lost seasons, he would have been criticized for that too. We are not aware of the accuracy and amount of conversations and/or offers made to any given player. Realistically, the only other pitchers who would have fit the front of the rotation type arm were Fried and Sasaki – they would have been worth the years and money but obviously the Orioles cannot compete in the same financial space as New York and LA. Were their other pitchers that could have contributed, absolutely – he is deserving of the criticism there.
The O’Neill signing was entirely too risky for a team that needs to be extremely successful with their free agent acquisitions. Obviously Santander didn’t fit the need in terms of years, he wanted more years and rightfully so. The Orioles cannot commit to those longer term contracts with players who would block emerging talent.
Hopefully Elias gets this offseason right but he has more than proven his worth and ability through completely transforming the organization and building it into a highly effective drafting system, emerging international reach and resources and building out the club in the areas of analytics and player development and scouting. He probably isn’t on the hot seat unless this coming offseason, regular season and trade deadline are absolute failures.
Okay now this is a take I can a step back and see. I get the point of holding prospects back a week or two to gain some control. Personally I don’t like it but I get it. I think we agree the O’Neill thing was not the appropriate risk to take. And while in retrospect not bringing back Burnes (whether he actually considered us is irrelevant at this point) may have proven to be a dodged bullet. We didn’t really bring in anyone of that caliber of production. At this juncture I can see the decisions currently being made, but looking back at the ones being made before the season its hard to rationalize. I cant and wont deny that Elias has improved this organization, but man last offseason felt like a bad bet. He’s an intelligent guy by most measures but he really needs to make some good decisions once the season is over.
The trade deadline deals were exceptional in my opinion. But at some point the pitching has to develop and prove itself. Like in all honesty I don’t know who I can count on every fifth day outside Kremer. The offense needs to step up big time as well. You can’t allow your starting pitcher to go 8 innings of 1 run ball and not give him anything.
The orioles just had one of the worst offseasons that a wannabe contending team has had in recent history. They lost their best power bat and ace and replaced them with slop.
Life would be so much better if we spent $200MM on Burnes and $92MM on Santander! True value signings!
I’m not saying they had to sign them to those contracts. But they certainly had to do a better job of replacing them. To basically swap them out with Charlie Morton and Tyler O’Neill was an obvious blunder at the time.
jdgoat — There’s a theme of everyone knew this outcome (laughably wrong). That this season was obviously a wreck. But that is not what anyone was saying at the time. Hindsight is genius, of course. But there is also a bunch of omissions/incomplete pictures being made here.
O’Neil was supposed to be a little bit of a platoon partner for Heston (since Mullins, and Cowser were OF locks). O’Neil was a 3rd/4th OF/DH option. Ramon Laureano…bench guy. (I guess Mike Elias gets no credit for Ramon, and just blame for O’Neil….and yes, Everyone did know that O’Neil wasn’t going to play a healthy 162…and that was backed into the pie of roster construction (hence the Carlson signing)). Whatever is going on with Heston is more of an issue than O’Neil and the IL stints.
As far as Morton goes, he had, through 2024, been a stable and consistent SP. This was not his year (but he did roll of a month + of very good outings after getting right…and besides, if he was ‘that’ terrible, you think the Tigers woulda traded to Get him? I’d say that’s an indicator he is a valuable SP).
But here’s the big question…WHO are these players that Mike Elias Didn’t get, that would have changed the season? Othani and Skenes?? Would that really have helped Cowser, Westberg, Adley, Heston, Grayson, not scuffle/be injured?
There’s reasonable disappointment aplenty in Birdland, but there’s no need to find false narratives/perceptions just to simplify a complexe environment as baseball.
Scruff – you may recall, but I have not been a fan of a lot of moves going back to Cole Irvin being sold as the surprise “diamond in the rough, Elias is smarter than you” move prior to the 2023 season. If you go back and look at some of the threads, I’ve gotten a lot of criticism.
I really got hammered for criticizing the signing of Morton and Sugano “strengthening the rotation from the bottom.” I was told I was not a real fan, that I didn’t know baseball, that Elias is smarter than me, etc. I was vilified for daring to predict they’d go 83-79 and not necessarily being the favorites for the wild card if not division title, because all of the experts said 90-100+ wins.
How many times have I said they need #1/#2/TOR starters to solidify themselves as favorites? (Now they need to obtain at least 2, if not 3, BTW)
Now what do they have to say?
I did not expect so much regression from the young core on offense – a clean sweep of the management and coaching staff and a significantly different approach is needed.
I didn’t expect the pitching to blow up this badly. Morton in my mind could have been a decent back end guy, not get shelled and lose his first 7 starts to take them right out of the race. Sugano maybe an effective 3/4 type but concerned how he would hold up this summer, he was a little better than that for 6 weeks now he’s not MLB caliber.
Yes, I’m going to put the “I told you so” out there, particularly to one commenter who loves Austin Hays (now hitting .252).
O’s
If you go back and look at threads, you’re employing revisionist history.
The “experts” here lauded the move for General Soreness (O’Neill) because surely he’s good for 30 HR and will be far better than Santander. He’s better than 2025 Santander but its a big step back from 2024. Thank goodness for Laureano stepping up to fill in a good bit of the void.
There was concern O’Neill was blocking Kjerstad. But I guess if Kjerstad can’t hit, he’s not being blocked. He was given ample AB’s this year while General Soreness was on the DL and proved he can’t hit.
They had to pry Morton out of retirement to play this year. I thought he’d be good at the back end, not directly cause 7 losses to take them out of the race.
For your question: Pivetta was available, for the amount they spent on Morton plus Gibson, per year. Luzardo was available for minimum prospects. Or Fried. Add up the $ they wasted on Morton, Sugano, Gibson, Sanchez and Mateo, you’ve got Fried and Pivetta, and Luzardo via the trade.
There is no getting around the fact – no matter how orange colored your glasses are, no matter how much spin Elias & company try to sell – they need to obtain 2-3 starters who are #1/#2 quality. You get a good rotation, now you’re not frying/injuring your bullpen by June and theirs was decent the first two months.
I’m right there with you man. The folks that I talk to at least were not impressed by this offseason. It reeked of just hoping guys were coming back from injury and turning around their production from last year (Rogers). Morton and Sugano on the outset would be a good final rotation spot gamble. But thats only if you have your TOR healthy and established. Which as you said, we obviously didn’t.
I love my O’s but I can’t just pretend to see ill advised moves and think they’re amazing. With the exception of maybe Jackson Holiday (currently kinda slumping but hes still just 21), the rest of the offense has been subpar or injury riddled or both. I too was expecting a step forward for guys like Cowser and Westy, but they too have either been injured or inconsistent. Mayo seems to finally be getting some extended look, I’ve seen both bad and good from him but we shall see. I’m really just hoping for a miraculous turn around next year to be honest. But I’m definitely not betting on it.
Thornton — To be more accurate, Grayson and Eflin were supposed to be the TOR guys (since Grayson was healthy during the off season). You have Dean, Morton, and Sugano for the rest of the rotation. You get Bradish and Wells back, just hold the fort down. In January of this year, it was hard to argue that Grayson and Eflin wouldn’t be just fine until Bradish (and Wells), since the offense was supposed to step forward (which was already good). That was public sentiment coming into Spring Training.
Max Fried signed before Corbin had made a decision. Fried is not better than Corbin Burnes, and, Max will be making more money, for longer, than Corbin. (Max signed through age 38yo). Tough read for Mike Elias to see that Corbin Burnes wasn’t going to resign with them, and early in the off season, re commit more money to a not quite as good TOR SP. I don’t see blame/fault for sticking with the Cy Young winner when you believed you were the best bet to land him (at the time Max signed with the Yanks). Additionally, at 35 million a year through age 38, he’d be the largest contract the Orioles ever signed by a massive margin. 35 a year, for 8 years…that’s Gunnar’s money, it’s already spent (fingers crossed).
Luzardo was available, and I’m a big fan of his and had wanted to make a trade for him for years. He is about to be a free agent this year, and maybe he’s a guy we see in Camden next year, but, his 4.20 era is in the Sugano bracket (4.24) and below the Kremer (4.17). That’s not TOR guy you (and I!!) crave for the rotation.
I think your expectations for ‘2-3 starters that are #1/#2 quality’ is aspirational more than practical. There just aren’t that many of those guys, and those that are, are being clung too (cause everyone needs them guys) OR they get overpaid to go to large markets.
TOR pitchers get massive money because of their scarcity. There aren’t 30 of them in the league, let alone 60 so all teams can have a true TOR #1/#2. I too want as you do, but I’m not expecting it, and definitely not holding that standard as a measuring stick.
Lol @ Orange tinted glasses. Next it’ll be warehouse apologist like back in 2014. Hadn’t heard that slander/shade in a while, good one…you Orange Kool Aid drinker. 😁
Scruff
I know its a pipe dream, but if they went out and got 3 very good starters (Pivetta, Fried, and Luzardo last year), this lets Rogers and Kremer compete for the back end. Kremer is Kremer and Rogers isn’t going to continue to put up Pedro Martinez #’s. Then Young/Povich are swing men/injury candidates.
There were articles last fall at the end of the season that Burnes preferred Arizona and there was a strong belief it was “one and done” in Baltimore. No reason why Elias couldn’t get Fried and/or Pivetta at the winter meetings. Luzardo trade was later in Dec. Elias sat and giggled about his wall at the winter meetings.
Rodriguez isn’t going to be much more than a reliever and Wells a spot starter/swingman. The bullpen needs rebuilding too. I’m only counting on Bradish to return and be an effective starter. (Before this season I saw Bradish as a 2, Eflin and Rodriguez as 2/3 – the team didn’t have a true #1 – Wells is not a starter).
Non-tender Mountcastle. Not worth the $9-$10M he’ll be asking for. Try and find another GM who will take O’Neill although I doubt it will happen. They have Basallo to take some DH AB’s, Mayo at 1B, OF has Cowser, Beavers, with Bradfield coming soon. Maybe find another OF/DH in the Laureano mode or else hope someone like Kjerstad can play.
Clean sweep to coaching staff and manager with different approach – reverse the slide that the young core is on. That will have more of an impact than picking up 2 above average players on offense.
I think they’ll find bullpen guys. Not as much an issue if the starters are competent and don’t have the best bullpen guys fried by Memorial Day yet again.
Sign some of the young core to manageable extensions, we’re now late into 2025 and not a one has done so. Atlanta and Boston are doing it.
I agree, realistically this team needs 3 very good reliable and healthy starting pitching options. Its a big ask to acquire that many but not necessarily an impossible task. I love the talent that Grayson, Bradish and Wells have but they have not proven themselves healthy and reliable. Realistically I don’t think you can guarantee a lot of production from them.
Povich I think could be a solid contributor, he’s not overmatched by any means but he does need to continue to show improvement. Brandon Young really needs to show something imo, he may have a good start 1 out of every 4 or 5 starts but in general he’s not been what we’ve been hoping for. Rogers has been wild to watch and like you said, no way in hell does he continue this absolute insane run, but he has proven himself talented and effective and a piece of the rotation to build on. Also to your point Kremer may just be the most consistent pitcher we’ve had in a long time, nothing more than an decent 3rd starter or overqualified 4th starter. But definitely someone you can rely on.
Mounty does need to go though. I’ve also been saying Kjerstad needs a change of scenery, I like his talent but I don’t think we can afford him the opportunity here. He may need a move like Stowers did.
As far as the coaching staff goes, its hard for me to lay a ton of blame at Hyde’s feet or Mansolino. They are not without blame but they’ve also been hampered by lack of support via the offseason moves as well as being restrained by trade deadline moves. About the only guy I can endorse is Buck Britton as third base coach. I can appreciate the aggressive sends he gives guys rounding third base.
In regard to starters, there are definitely 2 starters out there that would help push the pitching staff forward. I expect Rogers to continue his momentum and ascent but with some regression likely – he currently has the second longest streak in club history of allowing 2 runs or less across a number of starts in a row of something like 6 innings or more per start, obviously that streak is not likely to continue and he’ll have his clunkers but he should be a very strong 2 that pitches with ace potential, hopefully more times than not. Bradish should be back in very close to, if not full form by next season. He has the experience to pitch his way through any struggles or loss in velocity at first, should he not be at full strength starting next season. Bradish and Rogers are a very, very good 1-2 punch.
They should make a serious play for Cease or King. Framber is a pitcher I think would fit well in Baltimore. If the option doesn’t get exercised, Woodriff is another guy I think would fit in well also. I wouldn’t object to bringing back Eflin or Sugano for a back of the rotation spot (Eflin obviously more of a mid rotation option if healthy). Obviously there are other pitcher options but those are names I can see being realistic options in terms of money and years. Bring in two guys FA/trade, whatever it takes.
Cease, Bradish, Rogers, acquisition arm #2, and Kremer would not be a bad rotation at all. Anything you get out of Greyson should be considered a bonus – they cannot operate as if he will be healthy and available. The remaining guys can be grouped in with Kremer and maybe make it a competition for the last rotation spot and the rest go to the bullpen. Wells would be a great high leverage arm, I think that should be what they focus on for him, not starting.
Obviously you may need to grab an arm for the bullpen but we all know starters need to be the main priority. There is no reason why the rotation should be as messy, injured or as bad as this season if they do the right things in the offseason.
O’s – the best performing department for years in that warehouse is whoever puts the spin out on prospects and transactions and how to get fans to buy in.
I will never buy in. How they tried to spin Eddie Murray trade in 1988 was what caused that, and I was only in 8th grade. How much they hyped up Juan Bell, and my question was “why did they focus on a shortstop when we already have one that never misses a game?”
ba$eballF@n21 – Rogers won’t continue to put up a 1.44 ERA. The two things that bother me are .167 BA against and .212 BABIP. That’s unsustainably low and way, way below his career average. I don’t even worry about the hard-hit % as he keeps the ball on the ground and inside the walls. If he can continue being sharp and his stats regress to the mean, I see a 3.5 ERA type of guy – mid rotation – #2 when he’s on, maybe #4 in an off period. Not the 5 ERAs/back end of a rotation if anything he’d been putting up except in 2021. They need a mid rotation guy for sure.
But the rotation still needs to be built from the top, Bradish plus new blood. Having Burnes take the ball every 5th day in 2024 is the best I’ve felt about the rotation since Mussina left. If they got 3 to push Rogers and Kremer types to the back, that’s dominant (and unrealistic) but at least 2 to fill the holes the best way possible.
The season is coming to an end sooner or later. That’s counts as good news, doesn’t it?
Are the Orioles done paying Chris Davis? I’m not sure if it was paid out all at once or if it was being for the next 10 years or something like that
We pay him into the 2030s or something
Yes. Davis came off the books after the 2022 season
$9.16 million per year between 2023 and 2025, $3.5 million between 2026 and 2032, and $1.4 million between 2033 and 2037. – per Wikipedia. Anyone can post on Wikipedia, so you know you’re getting the best information.
Michael Scott!
It is backed up by Cot’s site, so the information is legit. Just to put this in perspective…Chris Davis was the 4th highest paid Oriole this year.
1) Eflin: $18M
2) Tyler O’Neill $16.5M
3) Sugano: $13M
4) DAVIS: $9.16M
AE86 – I think Morton cleared $10M prior to his trade too, not that it makes your list look any better…
Felix Bautista is done forever…
Its not just a shoulder injury, its a significant shoulder injury! I’m sure that’s a technical term. Funny how its never an insignificant shoulder injury.
feel bad for felix. having a strong yr after TJ, now this…
been a bad 24 hours for elite closers
A “significant shoulder injury” is likely going to carry over into next season as Bautista recovers and rehabs.
Eflin will likely be had fairly cheap on a one year deal next winter. Could be in Baltimore or another team hoping he comes back good enough to flip at the deadline
If I’m the Orioles GM (and I can’t do much worse than this guy) maybe offer Eflin a one year deal with a low base and potential to earn a lot with incentives, say for # of starts, # of IP, etc.. Have a team option for year 2.
Eflin will never take that. My guess is despite the injury, the asking price will be 2-3+ years at $20M+/year.
If the entire Orioles roster joined the Twins, could they make the playoffs?
Hope to see Eflin and Bautista healthy in ’26.
Easily. They would have an all star line up
Only if the Twins have a complete rotation and bullpen. The Orioles don’t have much to add to the pot.
See you next August, Felix
The Red Sox will probably sign Eflin as next year’s reclamation project.
Executive of the year strikes again
We just can’t have nice things. Hopefully the news isn’t as horrible for Big Mountain as it sounds, and he gets well soon. Even if he never pitches again, I hope he is able to live pain free.
Bullpen needs to be entirely rebuilt. Rotation needs at least 2 high quality arms. This will not be an easy offseason.
This team got snake bit, then bit again
For Bautista the blame is squarely on Mansolino for letting him throw 34 pitches after not making an appearance for 10 days, to get him that 19th save against the Rays on July 20th. He hadn’t thrown more than 29 pitches in any outing all season, or more than 20 in 3 weeks.
Eflin hasn’t been healthy all year, he gave his partial season of really good play. I’d say don’t give an offer, save the $ for the 2-3 #1 or #2 pitchers needed over the winter to have an actual rotation in 2026.
Bring back Danny Coulombe and Seranthony this offseason. Target some other relievers with the prospect capital we got back.