A day before the start of the 2017 MLB Draft, here are the current rumblings.
- The Twins look likely to select Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright or Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay with the first overall pick, John Manuel of Baseball America writes in his last mock (which came out Friday). Late last week, Jim Callis of MLB.com suggested the Twins were leaning toward McKay, although it seems the first pick is still the subject of some uncertainty. Both sources have the Reds taking California high school righty Hunter Greene at No. 2 and the Padres going with North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore at No. 3, although those picks could seemingly change based on what the Twins end up doing. (ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, has a long profile of Greene, calling him “the best prospect in the draft class and one of the most gifted teenage players I’ve ever seen,” even as he notes that kind of praise can lead to burdensome expectations.)
- Interestingly, Jonathan Mayo’s latest update in the MLB.com link above cites speculation that the Rays at No. 4 and the Braves at No. 5 could make predraft deals with players to save money against the value of their picks and then go after highly regarded talents in later rounds. (The Rays have a pool of about $12.5MM, with the Braves at just under $10MM.) One possibility should the Rays go that route is Alabama high school outfielder Bubba Thompson, who MLB.com currently rates as the No. 26 prospect in the draft. Atlanta could do something similar, but they could also take Wright or California high school SS/OF Royce Lewis if those players are still available when they make their first selection.
- It’s possible you remember Darren Baker, Dusty’s son, as the small batboy being yanked away from home plate by J.T. Snow in the 2002 World Series. Now, though, Darren is an outfield prospect with a commitment to Cal. Dusty says, though, that Darren will honor that commitment unless he’s drafted “real, real high,” according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (on Twitter).
As a White Sox fan, I would looooove for the Rays/Braves to go that route.
It’s honestly not that great for the Sox. They pick a ways back and the difference between who the Rays/Braves pick and who the Sox might pick isn’t huge. There is a top 3 then after that everyone seems to be even investments for 10/15 picks.
Actually, it is good for the White Sox because they’d prefer to draft an outfield prospect all things being equal. If those two teams take outfielders ranked 20th+ (like Bubba) instead of guys like Beck/Adell, then there’s a much greater chance of one of the top OF guys falling to the Sox.
I still don’t understand the thought process behind over-drafting someone to take a good player later. Taking a lesser player and then hoping someone falls to get him cheaper is way too risky. You could take the BPA at #4 and still get the lesser player with your next pick. You can always make up money by drafting college seniors in the 8th, 9th, and 10th rounds with much less loss.
It’s a way to work around the system. You can’t save much money in the 8th, 9th, and 10th rounds. Those slot values aren’t much to begin with
If you undersign with your first pick it gives you extra money (usually in the millions) for a second or third pick.
Players don’t have to sign is what you’re missing with the just take the BPA thought process. Teams will pass on a guy if they don’t think a deal can be reached (aka he wants more than the a slot value they have to play with). So talent does trickle down some times. And if you undersigned your first pick, which is still usually a high talent player, you can get another higher talent later in the draft as well.
It’s just a different strategy is all. I think it can work, but it doesn’t always work either. I don’t knock teams that choose that strategy either way
Let’s use Austin Beck for an example. His draft stock really took a hit with his injury. He’s someone who may want top 10 money, but is projected to possibly fall out of that. Let’s say he does fall all the way to 20th pick. But he wants more than 20th slot value. Is whoever is picking 20th take a chance and draft him and hope he takes 20th slot value money? Or let him continue to fall and draft someone they have a better chance of signing.
Oversimplification here, but it’s meant to be for example purposes
Royals did this in 2013. Took Hunter Dozier, later drafted Sean Manaea.
It is true that people don’t HAVE to sign, but teams will still get a similar compensatory pick if they do not. This negates the risk unless the draft is particularly strong. I also don’t get why teams don’t take advantage of this in ways.
For example, you are picking #3 in a relative weak draft, but let’s say next year’s crop looks very strong. Why wouldn’t you just take someone you KNOW wouldn’t sign with the #3 pick so you can guarantee yourself the #4 in the strong class? That seems like a better strategy than the over-draft. But that is more of a digression than a point.
Let’s go back to the Royals example. There was a very good chance Hunter Dozier would have been available at the time Manaea was picked. He was not THAT highly regarded. They risked losing the better prospect in Manaea instead of just taking him at #8 and picking up Dozier later. It did work for the Royals, but that doesn’t make it a smart strategy. You can survive jumping off a cliff into a 10 foot pool of water also, but that doesn’t mean it was a smart thing to do.
The whole strategy just seems to undermine the whole principle behind the draft to me. It’s like drafting by technicality instead of skill. It’s legal, but it just doesn’t really pass the smell test to me either.
Baseball is very different. Unless you are a Senior in COLLEGE (and only that type of player) you can go back to college and not sign.
So, what that means is some teams like to keep more gunpowder dry for 2nd/3rd round picks, so they can offer a bit more than anticipated to try and lure them to MLB and away from college ball.
If you take BPA (a good idea of course) and pay him the most you can (assuming not a senior they have some leverage), then if you take a 50/50 player in 2nd round with 1st round upside, you might not be able to pay enough to get them to forgo college ball, etc. Then maybe you spend the next few rounds, instead, selecting lesser talents that you know can be signed so you don’t risk a high pick not signing.
Some teams don’t worry about it, others do. Some will go high risk for top side talent and maybe lose one to college, while others don’t want anything to do with risk of not signing top picks, taking a lesser player, so they can be sure to get them to sign.
Generally it’s to take a player perceived to be a “tough sign” later in the draft, usually a high school guy with a solid commitment to college.. The idea is that they can overdraft him and pry him away from that commitment. Because most colleges don’t have full-ride scholarships to college, it’s tempting for a player from a poorer background.
Correction
Most college don’t offer full rides for baseball, but other sports are offered
Yes, that’s what I meant, just didn’t use my words right. Basketball and Football have lots of full scholarships, baseball generally has none.
Yes, there’s been multiple teams who have done this in the past. Like ovp was saying, some teams like to “keep more gunpowder dry” for later on in the draft. This is not a bad strategy to have, especially in deep drafts. Another example of this I think is what the Astros did a few years ago when they drafted Correa and then were later able to draft and sign Lance McCullers out of high school.
Angels better take a legit prospect not another Ward
the twins are still an ace away I hope they get someone who can front that rotation
Twins need a lot more than one ace, but it would seem McKay is closer to MLB with a bit less upside while Greene may be further away with the most upside.
As a Reds fan, I am fine if they take either player. I just don’t want the Reds passing up one of these two is all. I hope its Greene or McKay at #2.
Lot of pressure for the braves to take hitting this draft. But there are some fine arms out there. Can’t have too much pitching….
Rays are just asking for trouble here. With a history of poor draft choices, especially the last 5 years, taking a lesser player to save money sounds like a terrible idea. They really cannot afford to screw this pick up, first top 5 pick since 2008, and only a few draft picks since then have made any impact in the majors. If Wright or Mckay is available and they pass for a high-risk, high-ceiling high school kid who doesn’t pan out, it easily could be the end of Silverman and Bloom/Neander’s job.
Well… you can’t assume that Wright or McKay will pan out. lol and missing on the first round pick does look bad, but it’s what they do with the rest of their picks that will make or break them. Remember… Majority of the pros aren’t 1st round picks.
Most all stars are first round picks. So while a team can fill out its roster with 2nd and 3rd day players, they need elite talent to be contenders. The Astros struck gold with Springer, Correa, and Bregman. They blew it on Appel, but at least they dodged a bullet on Aiken.
They also can’t afford to draft someone that’s not going to sign especially in a deep draft like this. In general this approach usually signifies a 4 year college guy.
That’s usually the trade off it’s an established college junior who you are going to be able to sign a little underslot, especially a SP because of the nature of pitching and the little if any leverage that is available as a graduated draftee.